S H I F T YOU R

PE R S PE C T I V E
with Shell NXplorers Pro

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 A NEW APPROACH

NXPLORERS PRO USES

A UNIQUE COMBINATION
OF THREE METHODOLOGIES:
Integrating these approaches into one programme creates a new way
of looking at global complexities, and shows young people how to
approach the complex challenges the world faces, now and in the future.

SYSTEMS THINKING SCENARIO PLANNING THEORY OF CHANGE

A framework for seeing the Asks ‘what if’ questions to A methodology of thinking that
bigger picture rather than explore alternative views of the imagines how and why a certain
isolated fragments. future and create plausible stories change is expected to happen.
around them.

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© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.
 NXTHINKING

PERSPECTIVES THE BIG PICTURE

We all see and interpret the world Traditionally our understanding
from our own perspective. of how the world works has gained
much by looking at the detail of things;
taking things apart to better
understand how they work.

CONNECTIONS
When we look at the big picture
we can uncover the many different
ways apparently disconnected
things are connected.

THE FUTURE CHANGE

An important feature of NXthinking We can bring about positive
is an appreciation that the future change in many ways.
is not fixed.

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© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.
 NXthinking aims to equip us with a way to explore real-world problems and generate potential solutions.

NXTHINKING
Underpinning all aspects of NXthinking is the promotion of both analytical and creative thinking. It does
this by encouraging us to dig beneath the surface of problems to better appreciate some of the interrelated
factors that cause them.

It also encourages us to think about futures; probable, possible and preferred futures, and to think about
what we might do differently to bring about positive change. NXthinking takes many of its ideas from the
disciplines of systems thinking, scenario planning and theory of change.

THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT
THE BIG PICTURE CONNECTIONS PERSPECTIVES THE FUTURE CHANGE

Traditionally our understanding When we look at the big picture We all see and interpret the world An important feature of We can bring about positive
of how the world works has we can uncover the many different from our own perspective. The NXthinking is an appreciation change in many ways. It can
gained much by looking at the ways apparently disconnected way we perceive things is often that the future is not fixed. We happen at a personal level –
detail of things; taking things things are connected. By looking shaped by our world-view – our are encouraged to understand win what we think and what
apart to better understand for connections we can start cultural background, the social that there are many possible we choose to do – or on a local,
how they work. More recently to see some of the many ways norms of our upbringing and our futures and we can play a part in national or international scale.
scientists and psychologists have that things are interrelated and personal experiences. We also shaping what happens. We are Positive change can also happen
recognised that there is also value interdependent. In the real world interpret events in the light of asked to look at trends to make as a result of many different
in looking at the big picture too. interactions are often complex our current viewpoint or vested projections about possible futures. things – anything from a social
and dynamic, and it is not always interest. We all inevitably have innovation to an invention of
The real world is made of systems, useful to look at things in isolation particular bias and assumptions. We can use scenario planning a new product or service.
both natural and man-made, from one another. tools to generate a number of
that are often complex networks Being aware that everyone potential futures. Importantly, Whatever change we hope to
of interacting variables. By Some of the tools in this pack interprets the world from an we can use the information bring about it is useful to think
exploring the dynamic nature encourage us to look at many individual perspective helps us we gain from deepening our about our theory of change – why
of systems we are often better different types of relationships to better understand ourselves, understanding of particular we think what we do will work!
able to understand how the real including complex causal others and the types of behaviours issues to envision a preferred Having tools to support thoughtful
world works. And the better our relationships, consequences we encounter in different future. Ultimately, futures decision making, effective action-
understanding of a situation, and the different types of situations. Thinking about thinking is not about crystal-ball planning and the persuasive
the more able we are to help feedback loops. perspectives can also help us gazing but about making better communication of ideas is really
to improve things. to develop empathy for others. decisions today. helpful. NXthinking tools support
us in considering the key barriers
and enablers of positive change.

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

 NXTHINKING

THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT
THE BIG PICTURE CONNECTIONS PERSPECTIVES THE FUTURE CHANGE
The world is made up of systems We can deepen our understanding We all see the world, and The future is not fixed. We can We are more able to bring
– complex networks with many of a situation when we uncover interpret what we see, from our imagine many different futures and about positive change when
interacting variables. Thinking about the multiple connections and own perspective. Being aware of act to help create a preferred future. we understand what helps and
systems helps us to better understand interactions that influence the different perspectives helps us better Thinking about the future can help hinders change in our own lives
the way the world works. way the world works. understand ourselves and others. us make better decisions today. and the wider world.

SYSTEMS RELATIONSHIPS CONSIDER WORLD VIEWS HORIZON SCANNING THEORY OF CHANGE

▉ sets of interacting component parts ▉ direct or indirect ▉ cultural ▉ socio, economic and ▉ why we think what we do will work
that form a complex whole ▉ linear or non-linear ▉ religious technological trends ▉ assumptions
▉ natural and designed systems ▉ dynamic or static ▉ experience ▉ barriers and enablers
PROJECTIONS
PARTS AND WHOLES
▉ accumulations ▉ social norms ▉ change over time
▉ types of change
▉ there can be systems within systems
▉ patterns or trends over time ▉ values and beliefs ▉ forecasting
▉ scale of change

BOUNDARIES AND SCALE INTERACTIONS PERSONAL VIEWPOINT SCENARIOS DECISION MAKING

▉ how the scope and extent of
▉ actions and reactions ▉ our frame of reference ▉ modelling
▉ cost-benefit analysis
a system, or part of a system, ▉ balancing or reinforcing loops ▉ our vested interest ▉ uncertainty
▉ feasibility
is defined ▉ circular
PERCEPTION
▉ resilience building ACTION PLANNING
NETWORK TOPOLOGY CAUSATION ▉ mental models of the world ▉ goals and milestones
DESIGNING AND
▉ how the design of a system effects ▉ cause and effect ▉ bias PROTOTYPING ▉ time and task management
▉ its behaviour ▉ knock-on effects ▉ interpretation ▉ design thinking to generate ▉ impact measures
▉ root cause ▉ assumptions designs and solutions
COMPLEXITY SCIENCE PERSUASION
▉ multiple causes ▉ stereotypes
▉ iterative development
▉ phenomena that emerge from AND INFLUENCE
a collection of interacting agents,
▉ adapting
CONSEQUENCES OPEN MINDEDNESS
▉ communication
such as … ▉ successive approximation
▉ intended ▉ to be open to new ideas
▉ creating a dynamic for change
▉ … emergence
▉ unintended ▉ to suspend judgement
▉ collaboration, allies, sponsors
▉ … self-organising systems and advocates
▉ … multiple autonomous agents ▉ to tolerate uncertainty
POINTS OF LEVERAGE
ATTITUDES FOR CHANGE
▉ the points most likely to EMPATHY AND
have the biggest impact SELF-AWARENESS
▉ optimism
▉ awareness of the feeling
▉ tenacity and resilience
and motivations of others ▉ monitoring impact
▉ willingness to adapt

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

 EXPLORE

What are the issues?

What’s causing the issues?
How can we dig deeper into the issues?

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© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.
 PROBLEM
STATEMENT

SOLVING A PROBLEM STARTS BY ASKING THE

RIGHT QUESTION. THIS TOOL HELPS YOU TO NXTHINKING
FRAME THE PROBLEM AS A SIMPLE SENTENCE THAT
EXPLAINS WHAT THE PROBLEM IS AND WHAT YOU This tool can help you to think about key
WANT TO ACHIEVE aspects of the issue

How to use the tool: It helps you to see the bigger picture as you
understand the challenge you want to tackle and
1 Think about what is the problem you want to focus on. Start what you want to achieve. It’s not about how to solve
by working with your team to discuss challenges that you are it, but rather what you want to solve.
interested in. It could be related to energy, water, food , health,
education or environment. Do some research about the issue to
understand why is it important for the problem to be solved, who is Thinking about The Big Picture
affected by this problem and where is it taking place.

2 Think about what you what to achieve or what needs to change?

Without a solution in mind, ask yourselves: what is our goal?
For example, is the goal to ensure everyone in our city has cess to What is our energy demand
electricity? Is your goal to ensure clean drinking water for all? It the problem? is increasing
could be anything you want.

3 Who does the problem impact / who do you want to solve it for?
It is important to understand who wil benefit from your team
solving the problem. For example, are you solving the problem for meet the demand without
a specific group of people, such as farmers, workers, commuters, What is
impact on climate change
passengers, pedestrians, students, teachers, parents; or are you our goal?
(no increase in CO2)
solving for a whole community, wider society, country, or even the
global population?

4 Are ther any limits you need to consider? For example, you may be
limited by the amount of available energy, or want to expand the
Who will everyone in our society
availability of one resource without impacting the other. You might
ÎÙćÙƅĪʏ
want to increase food production without increasing energy use or
your carbon footprint.

5 Use the phrase “How can we”. You can use this template to
help structure your problem statement. How can we manage our
PROBLEM increased use of energy
STATEMENT without increasing CO2
emissions?

You can’t solve a problem until you

are asking the right question.

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

 CONNECTIONS
CIRCLE

A CONNECTIONS CIRCLE HELPS YOU IDENTIFY THE

LINKS BETWEEN THE PEOPLE, THINGS OR EVENTS NXTHINKING
IN THE ISSUE YOU ARE INVESTIGATING
This tool can help you to think about
How to use the tool: direct and indirect relationships
between factors connected to the
1 Draw a large circle on a piece of paper. issue you are investigating

2 Around the outside of the circle use post-it notes to write all It helps you think about the boundaries and scope
the key factors, people, things and events that are involved of the issue and also helps to identify the points that
in the issue you are exploring. are likely to have the biggest impact. It helps you
uncover causes and effects that you may not have
3 Begin to map the relationships between the things you have previously considered.
identified by drawing lines to link them together.

4 You can use arrows and + and - signs to show the nature of the Thinking about Connections
relationships between things. For example, you might use an
arrow to indicate how a rise (+) in online communications might
Thinking about The Big Picture
lead to a fall (-) in air travel.

5 Exploring how things are connected and the nature of the

relationship helps to uncover the complexity of many situations. Based on an idea developed in The Shape of Change (2007)
by Rob Quaden, Alan Ticotski and Debra Lyneis.
It can help identify cause and effect relationships and show how
changing one thing might have an impact on many others.
Number of
employees
6 Note which things have many lines drawn to them. The highly
connected points have the potential to influence many others. Remote
Power
They are called points of leverage. These could be important consumption working

when you start thinking about what you might want to change.

Almost everything is connected – People driving Equipment

to work
mapping the connections helped us to
availability

appreciate how changing one thing

can influence many others.
Water
Use of
usage
sustainable
transport

Sustainability Electricity
of building usage

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

 PERSPECTIVES
CIRCLE

THE PERSPECTIVES TOOL HELPS YOU LOOK AT AN

ISSUE FROM A RANGE OF DIFFERENT VIEWPOINTS NXTHINKING

How to use the tool: This tool can help you to take a
world view and think about different
1 W
 rite the issue you want to explore in the middle of a piece viewpoints and perceptions
of paper and draw a circle around it.
Everyone has a mental model of the world and this
2 I dentify all the people that have an interest in the issue; tool helps you to think about your own and others’
write them down around the circle. assumptions to help you understand the bigger picture.

3 D
 ecide how you will gather their perspectives. You might need
to interview them, use a survey or hold a focus group. Thinking about Perspectives

4 Analyse the information you’ve gathered. Consider the main

Thinking about The Big Picture
concerns and needs of each interest group, but also be aware
of what influences their behaviour and motivates them.

5 Summarise your findings on the perspectives diagram.

As well as thinking about people,
6 Finally, think about how you can use this information. It may help
you design a better product or identify a key point of leverage.
we looked at our issue from
It could also help you tailor your actions and communications to technological, environmental and
the needs of different audiences as you move forward. economic perspectives too.

Survey:
A cool & eco-minded office space,
good facilities, benefits & work life
balance are key.

Wellness & empathy

Employees
Rewards Survey:
Interview: Our priorities are cost, ease of
We need tp make sure productivity maintenance and regulations.
doesn’t decrease wellness.
Long term costs
Business values
Ops/Estate Skills to maintain
HR Staff retention

Interview: Interview:
Our focus is on raising We want profitability
employment without Challenges or while retaining a good
impacting sustainability. Champions? reputation.

Low carbon targets Productivity & profit

Local Gov. CEO
Employment targets Rewards

Focus Group: Focus Group:

I want to work for a company that cares It’s important that big businesses
about me and the environment. put back into the community.

Sustainability important Responsible business

Potential Staff Good salary & benefits Community Job opportunities
Interview:
Long-term financial viability and
total cost of ownership are top
considerations.

Return on investment
Financial Dir.
Productivity

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

 CREATE

What would happen if nothing changed?

What actions could bring about change?
What is our preferred future?

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© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.
 C HANGE - OVER-
TIME GR APH

A CHANGE - OVER-TIME GRAPH IS A WAY OF

IDENTIFYING TRENDS. THE INFORMATION THEY NXTHINKING
SHOW CAN BE USED TO MAKE PROJECTIONS OF
PROBABLE FUTURE SCENARIOS This tool can help you think about
patterns and trends from the past in
How to use the tool: order to allow you to make projections
about the future
1 Identify the trends that are relevant to the issue you are exploring.
For example, you might look at population growth, energy It helps you to consider the potential impact on
consumption or climate change. people, the environment and events should these
trends continue.
2 D
 raw a chart with two axes. Label the X-axis ‘Time’ and the
Y-axis the trend you want to analyse. Choose appropriate scales
Thinking about Change
for each axis.

3 Research the information and plot the data on your graph. Thinking about The Future

4 Add notes to explain any significant changes in the trend over

time, for example financial investment, population change, or the
availability of a new product or invention.

5 Use your change-over-time graph to look at trends and patterns Looking at the past can help us
that have occurred in the past. to make projections about what
might happen in the future... and
6 Importantly, you can use past trends to make projections of to consider uncertainties too.
probable future scenarios. Your projections should consider the
future if the trends continue broadly as shown on your graph.

7 Ask yourself some critical questions. For example:

What might cause the trends to accelerate or slow down?
What will life be like in 10 years?
What will be the consequences for people and the environment?
What positive opportunities might there be?
PROJ E C T I NG
What stresses and challenges might emerge?
C H AN GE

FU T UR E
T R E NDS

8 B
 e creative about how you present your probable future
scenario. A thumbnail sketch, short story, info-graphic,
video or imaginary news report from the future – it doesn’t
matter what format you choose, just make it compelling.

T H E PA S T TO DAY FUTURE

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

 SCENARIO
PL ANNING
QUADR ANT

THE SCENARIO PLANNING QUADRANT TOOL HELPS

YOU TO CREATE SCENARIOS IN ORDER TO EXPLORE NXTHINKING
A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE FUTURES BEFORE MAKING
CHOICES ABOUT A PREFERRED FUTURE This tool can help you to think about
a number of possible futures as you
How to use the tool: create and explore different scenarios

1 Draw two intersecting lines to make four quadrants. Each It helps you to consider the positive and negative
quadrant will be used to represent a different possible future. features – social, economic, environmental and
technical – of your projected scenarios. It can also
2 I dentify the important things that influence the issue you are help you to think about a preferred future.
exploring. The work that you did using the explore tools will help
you to do this.
Thinking about Change

3 Select two things that could be done to bring about change.

For example, you might choose to explore alternative energy Thinking about The Future
sources, grow more of your own food or create more efficient
ways to recycle water.

4 Label the vertical line with one thing you might change Adapted from work with Shell

and the horizontal line with the other.

5 Add a + sign to the top of the vertical line and a - sign at the It made me realise that the future is
bottom. Next, add a + sign to the right hand side of the horizontal
not fixed. There are many different
line and a - sign to the left hand side. The + signs represent an
increase in the thing you are proposing to change and the - signs ways the future might unfold… and
represent a decrease or no change. I can help to shape it.

6 You will have now created four quadrants which represent

four possible futures.
Sustainable
transport
Possible Future Possible Future
7 I n each quadrant use post-it notes to describe each
possible scenario.
Benefits health/wellness Tax benefits
Increased energy use More efficient energy use
Cost of installation Less traffic/congestion
More bike racks and charging More space in car park

8 As you explore each possible future think about the benefits, risks, points for electric cars
More space needed
Good for reputation

opportunities and drawbacks involved in each projected scenario.

Remote Remote
working No health/wellness benefits Employee satisfaction (more working
free time)
Increased fuel spend
You can also use the quadrant to highlight important features More traffic/congestion Financial savings
Increased costs (IT etc)
of each scenario that would make up your preferred future. More pollution
Need more parking
More space in office

Creating different visions of the future makes you explore More admin/co-ordination

Possible Future Possible Future

alternatives and consider a variety of options. You may be
surprised at some of the outcomes. Sustainable
transport

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

 SCAMPER
TOOL

THE SCAMPER TOOL HELPS YOU TO GENERATE AND

IMPROVE YOUR IDEAS FOR A PREFERRED FUTURE NXTHINKING

How to use the tool: This tool can help you to generate
and adapt ideas
1 Before using this tool you should have built up a clear idea about
the problem you are trying to address. You may have already It helps you to play with possibilities as you explore
thought about some preferred solutions. This tool helps you to different ways to enhance or improve your initial idea.
play with your initial ideas to make them stronger.

2 Use SCAMPER to generate a list of ‘what if…’ questions, Thinking about Change
taking each letter in turn. For example, you might ask
“What if we Modified our idea by making it bigger/
Thinking about The Future
smaller?” or “What if we Combined it with another idea?”

S ubstitute

Combine Adapted from a tool created by Robert F. Eberle found in Mind Tools.
Adapt
Modify
Put to another use
We didn’t just choose the first good
Eliminate
Rearrange idea we had… the tool made us
explore other possibilities, adapting
3 Work your way through the list thinking about the possibilities that and improving our initial idea.
each question provokes. Try not to restrict your thinking at
this stage; you’re just generating possibilities.
W HAT IF...

4 Jot your ideas down on post-it notes. Put the ideas on a large
display wall and read them all. S ubstitute
C ombine
I NSU L AT E
LOW E FFI C I E N T
5 Try to have a SCAMPER session at the end of one day and
AL L
HOME S E NE RGY HE AT I N G
LIGHTING

revisit it the next morning. Sleeping on it can often generate

even more ideas. A dapt
6 Finally, pull together three or four new ideas that the exercise M odif y
has generated. Spend some time refining and firming them up.
When you’ve got your new proposals, think about using another P ut to another use S PA R E
PA R KI N G
BI C YC L E
DYN AMOS

NX tool, such as the feasibility funnel, to identify the best ones to IN TO GE NE R AT E

GY M E NE RGY

take forward.
E liminate
R earrange

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

 CHANGE

What action can lead to our preferred future?

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 FEASIBILIT Y
FUNNEL

THE FEASIBILITY FUNNEL HELPS YOU TO IDENTIFY

THE IDEAS THAT CAN BECOME REALITY NXTHINKING

How to use the tool: This tool can help you to make decisions
based on your thinking about costing
1 Generate lots of ideas, involving as many people as you can to and time
gain a range of perspectives.
It can help you think about the expertise you
2 Write each idea on a separate post-it note. need and if the change you will make is scaleable to
other contexts.
3 Group the ideas according to common themes that emerge.

4 I dentify any ideas that could be combined or connected to Thinking about Change
strengthen the proposal.

5 Narrow down your ideas. One way to do this is to give everybody Thinking about The Future
three sticky dots to vote for their favourite ideas.

6 Interrogate each idea with a set of questions, relevant to

your project. Here are some ideas: Can our idea happen in
the timeframe we have available? Can we cover the cost of
implementing our idea? Do we have access to the expertise
we need? Is our idea scaleable? Will we be able to persuade Spare parking
into gym
Bicycle dynamos
generate energy

others to join us? Only one or two ideas are likely to make it Filter 1
Can it be done in
through the feasibility funnel. Choose the idea that is most time?
Spare parking

likely to bring about the change you hope to see. into garden

Filter 2
7 Be creative. You might be able to adapt some of the Is it affordable?

ideas that don’t make it through the funnel. With ingenuity Bicycle dynamos
power laptops

and determination you can sometimes find ways to

Filter 3
overcome obstacles. Will it increase
Remote productivity?
working

8 When you have identified the ideas you will take forward,
look at the compass tool. Filter 4
Will it attract
Electric car
talent?
sharing scheme

It helped us to think about our capacity

to make change happen and pick out
the ideas most likely to succeed.

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

 RIPPLE
E FFECT

THE RIPPLE EFFECT TOOL HELPS YOU IDENTIFY

THE KNOCK- ON EFFECTS OF A CHANGE YOU NXTHINKING
INTEND TO MAKE
This tool can help you to think about
How to use the tool: how sets of interacting parts form a
complex whole
1 Draw a set of concentric circles.
It also helps you to think about the cause and effect
2 In the smallest circle write the action you propose to take. of actions, to reflect on their root causes and to see
how one small action can have multiple effects.
3 Now think about the possible impact of that action. Write them on
the concentric circles to show the knock-on effect there might be.
Thinking about Change
4 Make sure you’ve thought about both the positive and negative
effects of your action. Take time to consider both the intended
and unintended consequences too. Thinking about Connections

5 Discuss what you can do to minimise the likelihood or impact

of any negative knock-on effects you’ve anticipated.

6 Using the tool might suggest some new ideas

or opportunities too.

This was a great way

to make us pause Cost to business

and think about the

Money to invest

possible unintended
Increased energy
consumption

consequences of what Tax deduction

for business

we planned to do. Need charger points

Your idea
Electric car
Delays in car park sharing scheme

Less money spent

on transport

Meet new people

Productivity drops
More disposable
Takes longer income

Improves
collaboration
Happier employees

Longer days at work

Productivity rises

Productivity rises

Scheme fails

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

 PERSUASION
PYR AMID

THE PERSUASION PYRAMID HELPS YOU PREPARE

TO COMMUNICATE YOUR IDEAS EFFECTIVELY NXTHINKING

How to use the tool: This tool can help you think about how
to communicate with others to influence
1 Draw a pyramid and divide it into four horizontal sections. your intended change

2 In the top section of the pyramid craft your sound-bite, the phrase It can also help you identify the kind of support you
that captures the essence of your message. will need from potential sponsors or advocates,
and make you more aware of your own assumptions
3 I n the second section prepare your elevator-pitch. This is a as you seek to persuade others that your positive
summary of what you’re trying to achieve and why. It should also change plan is worth considering.
explain what you want people to do. But you’ve only got 20 or 30
seconds – your time in the elevator – to get your message across.
Thinking about Change

4 In the third section draw together some compelling human-interest

stories. A good story engages hearts as well as minds and is often Thinking about The Big Picture
the thing that motivates people to take action. Generally, a human
interest story will take a specific example to make a more general
point. For example, a story about a farmer’s family affected by
soil erosion can make a powerful point about the consequences
of deforestation. Stories about real people are compelling –
so find stories that are personal, emotional and memorable.

5 The foundation of the pyramid is based on hard-facts. Soundbite

“Join the drive for
Gather together the data that justifies your proposals for a cleaner commute.”
change. Find interesting ways to present the facts –
graphs, infographics and images can work well.
Elevator Pitch
“Save money and the planet by joining
our electric car sharing scheme.”

The tool helped us think about Human Interest Story

the audience for our message. People are concerned about the environment. Joining this
scheme helps them feel pride and make a difference.

The sound-bite captured attention, The lower cost of commute and meeting new people has a
positive impact, leading to happier, satisfied people.
the story spoke to the heart and
the hard-facts spoke to the head. Hard Facts
Average UK yearly spend on driving to work = +£1,700
4 people sharing 2 x a week could save = £527 yearly
Average petrol car commute = 15 tonnes of CO2 yearly
Average electric car commute = 0.9 tonnes of CO2 yearly

© 2022 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

J O I N S H E LL N X PLO R E R S PRO A N D
T R A NS FO R M YOU R FU T U R E
Are you ready to take on the challenge?

Discover more at www.pro.nxplorers.com