Nas Proposal
Nas Proposal
July, 2016
Jimma, Ethiopia
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AKNOWLEDGEMENT
First of all I would like to thank Almighty Allah for his help in doing this
research proposal.
I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Ato Addisu Tegegn for his
advice, guidance and professional support in developing the research proposal.
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ACRONYMS
CSA- Central Statistical Authority
DCs- Developed Countries
EEA- Ethiopian Economic Association
FDRE- Federal Demographic Republic of Ethiopia
GDP-Gross Domestic Product
HDI- Human Development Index
ILO- International Labor Organization
LDCs- Least Developing Countries
MOFED-Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
MOE –Ministry of Education
NGOs-Non-governmental Organization
PCI-Per Capital Income
UN-United Nation
TABLE OF CONTENTS
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AKNOWLEDGEMENT.......................................................................................................2
ACRONYMS.........................................................................................................................3
CHAPTER ONE....................................................................................................................4
1. INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................4
1.1 Back ground of the study............................................................................................4
1.2 Statement of the problem...........................................................................................5
1.3 Objective of the study.................................................................................................6
General objective:................................................................................................6
Specific objective:................................................................................................6
1.4 Research question of the study.................................................................................6
1.5 Scope and Limitation of the study...........................................................................7
1.5.1 Scope of the study.................................................................................................7
1.5.2. Limitation of the study........................................................................................7
1.6. Significance of the study............................................................................................7
1.7. Organization of the study......................................................................................7
CHAPTER TWO...................................................................................................................8
2. LITERATURE REVIEW.................................................................................................8
CHAPTER THREE............................................................................................................16
3. METHODOLOGY..........................................................................................................16
3.1. Method of Data Collection And Source..................................................................16
3.2. Sample Size and Sampling Technique....................................................................16
3.3. Methods of Data Analysis......................................................................................16
3.4. Dissemination of results...........................................................................................16
CHAPTER FOUR...............................................................................................................17
4. COST AND TIME PLAN...............................................................................................17
4.1 Time Schedule............................................................................................................17
4.2. Financial Budget.......................................................................................................17
REFERENCE........................................................................................................................18
APPENDIX...........................................................................................................................19
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CHAPTER ONE
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Back ground of the study
Population is various form of living thing in a definite geographic environment which has specific
habitats, living style and distinct social organization. Every year the number of people is added to the
world population, most of them are from developing counties. According to UN (1996) the figure of
population projected in 2050 over 90% of population will the developing counties. The world
population size in 2006 where about 6.55 billion people, among these population 5.339 billion were
LDCs and 1.216 billion were DCs, with 1.5% annual growth rate. Africa is one of the LDC, which
characterized by rapid population growth with weak economic development, especially sub –Sahara
African countries. The total population of Africa is 763 million in 1998 year with high annual growth
rate of population in the world.
Ethiopia is one of the LDCs and characterized by rapid population growth which is not balanced with
economic development of the county. According to UN (1998) estimated population of 18 million
in1950 ranked it 25th in the world. In 1998 Ethiopia ranked 20th with 60 million populations. The
projected population of 169 million in 2050 were ranked country 9 th most populated in the world and
2nd in Africa following Nigeria. The Ethiopia annual growth rate was 2.4% with the doubling time of
population is about 24 year. Such rapid growth population change in fact strains socio-economics
development of our country seriously.
Ethiopia is a multi-nation country, there are more than 80 nationalities speaking different language
and have differ cultures. The determinant /size/ of population of Ethiopia is in continuous process of
change through the demographic process known as fertility, mortality and international migration.
Fertility trend to raise size and growth population, mortality trend to decrease size and international
migration is significant in changing population size. These are called variables that determine the
level of population growth.
In Ethiopia rapid population growth bring to a reduction in per capital income, social service
provision, unemployment, dependency ratio, natural resource and environment degradation, job
opportunity, basic need self-sufficient provision of good and service and size of land available for
farming and housing. According to EEA (2000) land holding size is the main constraint for achieving
food security, since 1970s Ethiopia was facing a recurrent famine. According to UN (2002) Ethiopia
was facing very large emergence aid, which the projection of 10-15 million people, requiring food
assistance in 2003.According to CSA (2000), if the current trend of population growth will continues,
the population of Ethiopia is predominantly a nation of young population. Almost 57% of population
is under 25 ages. The economically active population is between age 15 and 65 which, engage in
production of good and service. Ethiopia high young population implies large dependence on
productive peoples. The distribution of population is more settled on high land area and low in low
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land areas. High land area have available environment for agriculture production. This high
concentration of population causes environmental change such as land degradation, deforestation
and soil erosion as well as change in rain fall.
Wolkite is a town and separate woreda in southwestern Ethiopia. The administrative center of the
Gurage Zone of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region (SNNPR), this town has a
latitude and longitude of 8°17′N 37°47′E / 8.283°N 37.783°E / 8.283; 37.783 and an elevation
between 1910 and 1935 meters above sea level. It is surrounded by Kebena woreda and it was part of
former Goro woreda.
According to the Gurage Zone government, Welkite is one of 12 towns with electrical power, one of 11
with telephone service and one of nine that have postal service.The SNNPR's Bureau of Finance and
Economic Development, adds that as of 2003 Welkite also had a bank branch and other financial
institutions, as well as a hospital. An all-weather road was built in 1963 which connects Welkite to
Addis Ababa by way of Endibir.
Based on the 2007 Census conducted by the CSA, this town has a total population of 45,000. The
majority of the inhabitants practiced Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity, with 48.17% of the population
reporting that belief, while 42.31% were Muslim, 7.86% were Protestants, and 1.34% were Catholic.
The 1994 national census reported this town had a total population of 15,329 of whom 7,580 were
men and 7,749 were women.
1.2 Statement of the problem
In most LDCs in the world, rapid population growth has deterministic impacts on socio-economic
development. 80% of Ethiopia population lives in rural area which depending on agricultural
production using traditional system. As population grow rapidly the per capital land holds of
households decrease and that result in fall in food production and rise poverty cycle in the societies.
In the situation where population size is grow fast, the demand for food supply, health protection,
education facilities and job opportunity of labor force are increase simultaneously. These faster
demands for social service, PCI, natural resource, basic need and quality of living standard are
beyond the capacity of households and economic capacity of our country, that leads to under
development of economy.
In LDCs , specially sub –Saharan counties like Ethiopia have large number of under 15 age
population that are non-productive population with large dependence ratio, expenditure for social
service and basic need become very high in the country. Half of the population are dependent on
active labor force for their daily basic needs. Besides, it put more pressure on available resource
provide social service to the growing youth population.
In Ethiopia, rapid population growth raises question such as what and how economic, social and
political implication for level of living standard, freedom choice, investment and saving , public
service ,natural resource, social transformation ,food security, migration and infrastructure facilities
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can be solved through process. In addition to high number of population growth as problems, social
well fair, job opportunity and socio-economic development problem are bring Ethiopia to in LDCs
with population growth and low improvement of economy.
At recent time, the rate of urban population growth in Ethiopia is very high. Many research literatures
showed that the rapid population growth have its own consequences on socio-economic development
in urban areas today with the increasing rate of population in Wolkite town, there is a decrease in
land holding, high rate of unemployment, short of social service and housing issues. The demand for
housing, leisure, refreshment, social service and land holding are raises in the town. The provision of
social service and infrastructure facilities are increase, increase in dependence ratio and
unemployment, low saving, high expenditure of consumption, social well fair, investment, basic need,
and economic change has been the result of rapid population growth of the town.
Generally, in Wolkite town under the continuing massive addition of people each year, the socio-
economic development of the town affected and it is much more difficult to make progress in reducing
poverty, improving economic transformation, creating sufficient food supply, investment exposition,
capital formation, creating more job opportunity, distribution of social service, reducing migration
from rural area, protection of natural resource and environment condition, reducing dependence
ratio, facilitating infrastructure and raising production enough to keep with population growth of
town are the main issues of society.
1.3 Objective of the study
General objective:
The general objective of the study is to assess the determinant and over all issues of rapid population growth and its
impact on socio-economic development.
Specific objective:
Specific objectives of the study are to:
Assess over all ideas of the population and related issues.
Identify the main determinant of population growth.
Discuss/explain/ the consequence of rapid population growth on socio-economic development.
Suggest some possible policy recommendation.
1.4 Research question of the study
Research questions that would be answer under this study are as follows:
What is the main determinant of rapid population growth in Wolkite town?
What are the social and economic consequences of rapid population growth?
What are the possible policies recommendations ought to take on reduction of rapid population
growth and its impacts on the town social and economic development?
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1.5 Scope and Limitation of the study
1.5.1 Scope of the study
The study will focus on the consequence of rapid population growth on the town socio-economic
development. The study covers 2003-2007 year data source of the town population status. The study
mainly focus on agricultural productivity, social service provision, unemployment of labor force,
natural resource degradation, dependence ratio, job opportunity of investment and land share that
are highly related with rapid population of the town. The motivation to conduct these analyses is to
assess over all consequence of population growth on socio-economic development of Wolkite town.
The study will be conducted on random sample selection of kebele 01,02 and 03 of the town that have
more rapid population growth and its impact on socio-economic development related to other Kebeles
of the town. The random selected kebele are out of 7 kebeles of Wolkite town.
1.5.2. Limitation of the study
There were no studies conducted in the study area about the tittle. Time and budget shortage is
another constraint that limits the study. Besides, since the study was conducted based on 3 kebeles
from Wolkite Town, it may not help to refer the whole country.
1.6. Significance of the study
The study will be usefull for addressing the determinant and consequence of rapid population growth
on socio-economic development of town. It will also tell us the impact of rapid population in urban
areas that result from population growth through high fertility rate, high rural-urban migration and
low death rate.
The study will provide information on current condition of different data profiles and policy
recommendations on consequence of rapid population growth on economic development of Wolkite
town. In addition, it will indicate some clues to more research study and promote good condition for
socio- economic planning and implementation.
1.7. Organization of the study
The study’s analysis will have five parts. Chapter one will be introduction part; chapter two will be
concerned with the literature review section, chapter three will deal with area description; chapter
four will deal with discussion and analysis; finally, chapter five will be conclusion and some possible
policy recommendation.
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CHAPTER TWO
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Concept and definition of population
Population is the productive live and health of individual, couples, community and all the people in a
country. Population is a group of people living in a definite geographic area. Population concerned in
term of size, growth rate, structure, demographic and distribution of people in the area human
population is the main productive force and maker of spiritual and material. It includes gender equality
and equity, as well as, participation of community in matter related to their well-being.
Population dynamics refers to variable that determine the level of population growth and thus function
are fertility, mortality and migration in changing the size and structure of population of an area. While
fertility and mortality are biological factor, migration is purely non-biological in nature. The stage of
social and economic and demographic development determines the level of each of these factors.
Population dynamics is an increase or decrease in population size due to birth rate, death rate and
migration.
Economic and social development is a process of improving the quality of all human lives aspects of
development are raising peoples level of living in there income and consumption level, creating
condition conducive to growth of people self-esteem and increasing people freedom enlarging range of
their choice. It is also include change in social service, economic transformation, job opportunity and
infrastructure facilities development in the society.
2.2 Population growth and socio-economic development
The world most growth center of population is the LDCs. In the world, LDCs have very high birthrates,
while developed country has birth rate below replacement rate. Population growth rate in LDCs is 2%
per annual, compared to 1.1% in middle income countries and 0.7% per annual in DCs. According to
UN (1998) of population report, LDCs are not in position of lowering their population growth rate that
hinders their economic progress. Such large of people living in the world have no sufficient resource to
feed such large people living in the world. Natural resource is naturally limited but being and need and
wants are not limited. In LDCs, due to high birth rate children under age 15 are 32% of total
population, while 17% in DCs, this refers dependence burden on active labor force to support
financially more children and older (UN, 1998).
In most developing countries rapid population growth has various consequences on socio-economic
development. According to UN ,in LDCs 80% of population engaged in agriculture production,
However, land holding diminishing that decrease production of agriculture result in short age of food
securities. As population rises the demand for natural resource and social service increase and capital
per worker ratio decrease lowering standard of living. Population have a major barrier to alleviate
poverty cycle, inequality and under development of economic absorbing capacities of economy
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increases unemployment and migration of labor force. Population growth dampens economic growth
and social transformation through capital shadowing effect that is reduction in capital per worker ratio,
age dependence of young resulting in high consumption of food production, depleting saving and
investment activity in the country (EEA, 2000).
In Ethiopia as EEA states that the relationship between rapid population growth and socio-economic
development have a negative effect due to the imbalance between population growth and economic
development. The strong relationship between population and economic development is the area of food
production and supply, sustainable economic growth, poverty alleviation, PCI, job opportunity
distribution of social service, standard of living and land share that will be mismatch with present
Ethiopian population growth and economic development. The size of population in relation to
economic growth and development and standard of living is negatively related, this shows under
development of economy and rapid population growth.
However, this highest rate of population growth has considerable impact on social and economic
development. As the issues of was raised by Malthus in 18th centuries “an essay on the principles of
population as its affects future improvement of society.” The effect of population growth depends on the
age group that is participle in socio-economic activities. When population growth dominated by
children and youth, this population have Malthusian effect on the subsistence situation. According to
Malthus, the food production increase at apace slower than population growth resulting in recurrence
drought, famine, socio-economic stagnation and have under development of economy.
Population issue is central in development issue. Hence, population concern could be treated as an
integral part of the border socio-economic system. Population considered as liability rather than asset
in Ethiopia, because of population growth rate is greater than economic development. The implication
of rapid growth rate of population in developing country is in significant. The economic has to provide
food, clothing, shelter health and educational service and employment to the growing population. Rapid
growth of the population has adverse effect on natural resource and environment.
2.3 Determinant of population change
Determinant of population change are kwon as component or dynamic of population change. It
determines the level of population growth /change/ in size and structure of the population of an area.
Determinants population change brings about difference in size and characteristics of population of a
given social environment. The basic determinants of population change include fertility, mortality and
migration.
The total population of any are at the end of a given year equals to the population size at the beginning
of the year plus all the births, minus all the death ,plus all the in migrant /immigrants and minus all the
out migrants /emigrants. This refers to the concept of population growth rate (Girma, 2003).
In Ethiopia the main component of population growth are fertility, mortality and migration of people.
Fertility and mortality rate are the major determinant of population growth while international
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migration is in significant. The combined effect of dynamic of population control structural change of
any population in spite and time. The stage of socio-economic and demographic development of a given
society in turn determines the level of each of these factors.
Fertility: refers to the actual reproductive performance of a population. It brings live into being on the
earth. Fertility being the actual child bearing performance of individual, couples, groups or population,
measures the rate by which a population adds to itself through lives births. There are different kinds of
rate of the measures fertility of a given population .among these rates total fertility rate is the most
refined and widely used.
The major factor that contributes to higher level of fertility could be early marriage, traditional values
attached to children, low status and empowerment of women in the society, religious back ground of
people, less education awareness and access to family planning service. Among other socio-cultural and
economic related factor, low level of education is said to be the most important causes of high index of
fertility in rural area of Ethiopia.
Mortality: is concerned with death occurrence. It forces lives to go out of being. Mortality rate, though
decreasing, are higher in developing counties than the developed ones. This different caused by
variation in the standard of living, nutrition, medicine service, personal hygiene and environmental
protection.
The most common measure of mortality consists of a crude death rate, infant mortality and live
expectancy. Ethiopia is one of the countries of the world with high crude death rate, infant mortality
rate lowest live expectance. Furthermore, mortality of children under the age of five years and maternal
mortality are very in Ethiopia, which indicates low level of development in the country.
Migration: it is kinds of population movement, which involves permanent change of one’s own
residence. In other term, migration is the movement of people across specific area or boundary for the
purpose or establishing new residence. Geographer use different bases to classify migratory movement
of peoples into different group .it involve internal and international migration movement of peoples.
The most common measures of migration include immigration rate, emigration rate and net migration
rate. Migration type in Ethiopia is rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban and urban –rural migration.
Migration has direct effect on geographical distribution and differential growth of population.
Moreover, it has an interaction with other demographic forces as well as other aspects of social and
economic change.
2.4 Impact of rapid population growth
2.4.1 Economic problems
A) Natural resource depletion and environment degradation
Rapid population growth in developing countries especially in Ethiopia in the context of low
technological advancement is exerting heavy pressure on natural resource and environment condition.
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The rising demand for food supply result from rapid population growth had lead to the expansion of
cultivation in to land, generally, unsuitable for crop production and animal husbandry.
In Ethiopia, the impacts of rapid population growth on social and economic development have
degradation of natural resource, change in climate, decline in land for housing rise in urban center to
constraint / building home, and soil erosion are the result of population. The traditional means of
exploiting natural resource have to be environmentally harmed full and economically unproductive.
As population rapidly increase in Ethiopia its impact on environment and resource is significant. These
are :deforestation is cut down trees for agriculture land ,wood and construction purpose, erosion and
land degradation by water and wind and land fragmentation that is majority farm house
holds ,average land size is now less than one hector per households.
The link between population and natural environment are highly related. The resource and environment
is linked with the survival of the society and inevitably with development. High population growth can
bring environmental changes that have effect on change in social organization and the change in social
organization has consequences on poverty cycle (Ibid, 2003).
B) Agricultural Land share
Ethiopians cultivating system is mostly by traditional which leads to shortening of fallow periods and
crop rotation that helped maintain soil fertility. This traditional means of cultivation have lead to
increase rate of erosion, but decrease agricultural production. High demand for new farm lands, for
age for livestock and fuel wood and charcoal for cooking have contributed significantly to the massive
reduction and destruction of forest and woodland resources (Befekadu, 2000).
Population growth is related to agricultural development through a chain of reaction that includes
decrease land share and crop productivity. In the north and central high land of Ethiopia were
residential patterns are dense, natural land scopes are significantly changed in contrast to the south
west area were the population density are relatively low. Thus, means large land mass of Ethiopian high
land constituted by Oromiya region high land is severely degraded by human factor.
The Ethiopia economy is highly influenced by agricultural production and land holding, because of
according to CSA, 80% of population live in rural areas and economically based on agriculture. This is
why Ethiopian economy is characterized by agrarian economy. Agriculture is supply of food grain, cash
crop, milk, dairy and meat product are known not satisfies rapid population growth food need (Samson,
2002).
C) Unemployment and Migration
The measurement of the level national employment or un employment rate requires clarification of the
concept like; labor force, working age and productive activity .Unemployment are the working age who
are available for work and have actively sought work for employed, but unable to get job at the existing
wage. According to the ILO (2000) definition, the working age ranks from 15-59 year.
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The rapid population growth increase working age group or new labor force to labor market. Young
full age structure in impacts on employment resource as a large number of people enter in to labor
force every year. In our country due to low economic level the economically active labor force absorbed
capacity of the economy is limited .The majority of young people entering the labor force market work
in traditional agricultural sector and this puts a heavy burden on natural resource, environment
condition, social securities and political issues. The problem of unemployment is high in urban area,
which results due to migration of people from rural to urban to search better job, good living standard
and better per capital income.
Migration is the movement of people in space, often involving change in usual place of
residence .Specially, migration have a number of various effect of reliving population resource in
crowd area ,spending cultures from one area to another an bringing group into contact and there by
conflict. Similarly, many studies have proved that rural –urban migration strongly affects the
agricultural sector in rural area by removing labor force from the area to urban (Herbert J. Gans,
1972).
Internal migration has the main effect of redistributing the population size between rural and urban
areas, and between rural areas of low potential to those of higher agricultural potential. Therefore,
internal migration is an important element of population dynamics in agricultural countries like
Ethiopia, where internal migration is insignificant by volume.
The overall inter regional flows have been from the northern region to the south west and south east
regions, as well as Finfinne (Addis Ababa) city .This indicates that the migrant have been moving out of
the densely populated eroded northern and central high lands to area with available land of agriculture
and better job opportunity .
D) Job Opportunity and Investment
In LDCs, like Ethiopia which have rapid population growth, it is difficult to create sustainable job
opportunity, because of a number of economic establishment are too few to absolve the large proportion
of the economically active labor forces. As projection indicates the size of working age (15-64)
population is higher than the investment job opportunity in the country. Several new job have to be
created every year to satisfy the growing working age population, but the job opportunity of socio-
economic investment in different sector are failed to satisfy the rapid growing population. In Ethiopia,
with weak economic capacity is un able to create sufficient new job, it implies low job opportunity and
investment, that increase unemployment people, resulting in increasing the number of people living
below poverty line having rapid population growth in an environment of weak economic structure.
In Ethiopia, the government ,NGO and private investment is grow at low rate, that create low job
opportunity for rapid population growth ,special at urban area .due to short age of budget and
technology ,government investment in social service is low, which create more job opportunity for
currently unemployed labor force (Girma, 2003) .
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2.4.2 Social problems
A) Dependence ratio
Dependence ratio is a measure of the degree of burden created by the unproductive population over the
productive population. Dependency ratio is expressed in percentage .the population of Ethiopia is pre
dominantly young. This is a direct result of high fertility rate. The table below shows the age
distribution of the population of Ethiopia.
Table 2.1 Age distribution of Ethiopian population in million
Year of survey Percentage distribution of population by age
Under 15 15-64 65and above
1976 45.5 51.0 3.5
1986 48.1 47.1 4.8
1992 50.0 43.8 6.2
1998 43.8 53.1 3.1
As it is indicated in the above table, the age group below 15 and above 65 year account for almost
45percent.this would mean that only 55 percent of the population is economically active and therefore,
they support them self and rest of population. Ethiopia has large non-productive population, with large
dependent population, expenditure for education, health, shelter, food and basic service become very
high.
Rapid population growth produces a youthful population dominated by children those who are almost
unproductive economically, highly consuming rather than effectively producing product.
B) Social service provision
In fact, the effects of rapid population growth on social and economic development of public service are
complex and adverse in their nature. Obviously rapid population growth entrants with public education,
health, housing, food supply, employment opportunity, investment and the quality of the environment at
large. As population of Ethiopia growth rapidly, the demand for social service increase simultaneously
but the economic capacity of country failed to satisfies the demand of all societies (EEA, 2001).
Effects on health: Ethiopia has registered a poor health statutes and high rate of population growth
with weak economic development. The poor health status is largely attributable to prevent table
infection disease and nutritional deficiencies. Poverty cycle, low level of education, inadequate access
to clean water, shortage of sanitary facilities and poor access modern health facilities have contributed
to the poor health situation or status in Ethiopia.
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Effects on education: the rapid population growth has resulted in growing demand for education. Now
days though school are being built, total number of students has increased enormously. Thus there are
still large number of children who do not get chance to go school especially in rural areas. In many
urban centers school have over crowded class rooms. to improve this situation a large sum of money on
building schools ,purchasing educational facilities and printing books as well as training the teachers
being invested but failed to satisfies rapid population growth of children population.
Effects on Housing: Ethiopia is currently facing a serious problem of housing due to limited supply.
The short age is aggravated by the high rate of growing of population and by the stagnation in the
construction of residential houses. Rapid population growth leads to high demand for housing shelter
and other social service. Homelessness is already a major part of the housing problem, mainly around
urban center. The number of homeless person or squatter who live in bus station, pavement and in any
open spaces has increased. In Ethiopia housing sector lack comprehensive policy, which create
favorable condition for housing market? Thus at present there is little change in construction of
housing. (Berhanu, 2000)
2.4.3 Political Problem
In addition to economic and social factor, there are also a series of political factors which are
contributed to the under development of the of the country’s economy. Political factor may include:
crime, robbery and conflict.
In Ethiopia the number of population grow highly, without showing population growth, that result in
unemployment, migration, homeless, population density, low food supply and agricultural production
could fuel political instability and under development of economy. The rapid rate of urban population
growth which Ethiopia has been experiencing since last decade couples of year has reached level where
possess serious problem to national development and promotion of social welfare (Berhanu, 2000).
2.5 Population size and Trends
By 1900, the population of Ethiopia was 11.8 million. It had annual growth rate of 0.2 percent. After
1900, the population growth very fast, then between 1960 and1990 that is with in short time, the
population once again doubled. After 1970, populations reach 29.5 million with 26 year of doubling
time. In 2000, it reaches 63.4 million and 2.9 annual growth rates. This indicates Ethiopia population
has been growing rapidly. Obviously, rapid population change is a common demographic feature of
LDCs. The growth rate determines the time required for population to double (CSA, 2000).
Table 2.2 Trend of population size and growth of Ethiopia
Year(EC) Total population Annual growth rate
(million) (percentage/%)
1986 53.5 3.1
1992 63.4 2.92
15
1997 73.1 2.73
2002 83.5 2.62
2012 106.0 2.26
2022 126.1 1.85
Source: CSA; 1994 and 1999.
Furthermore, current trend of population growth in Ethiopia implies the population continues growing
into the future until a level of fertility moderation is reached. As projected Ethiopian population size
will reach a level of 81 million and 112 million in 2010 and 2025 year, respectively. It shows,
Ethiopian population is expanding rapidly and has direct effect on doubling time, which is in fact short.
The population of Ethiopia is characterized by one of the fast growing population in the world and more
of population are agrarian and live in rural area. According to CSA in 2000, the population of Ethiopia
was estimated at 63.5 million, of this close to 54 million or 85 percent were live in rural area while the
remaining 9.4 million people or 15 percent were live in urban area.
Table 2.3 Population of Ethiopia by residence in million
Year (EC) Urban population Rural population Total population
1986 7.3 46.2 53.5
1990 8.7 51.7 60.4
1992 9.4 54.0 63.49
1997 11.6 61.3 73.0
The sex ratio seem to be moving towards 1:1exhabiting almost equal size of male to female ratio of
population. According to CSA, about 30.2 million or 50.4 percent were males as 29.8 million or 49.6
were female in 1998, but the female population slightly exceeds the male population in urban area while
the opposite is true in rural area. This is mainly explained by the higher female migration from rural
area to urban centers.
Table2.4 Population size by sex in million
Year(EC) Male Female Total
1987 27.8 27.2 55.0
1992 31.9 31.7 63.6
1997 35.6 35.4 70.0
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2000 37.2 38.4 75.6
CHAPTER THREE
3. METHODOLOGY
3.1. Method of Data Collection And Source
To analyze the impact of rapid population growth in the town socio-economic activities, the study will
use both primary and secondary data sources. The primary data source is collected through
questionnaire from non-random purposive selected residents of three selected kebeles and officers of
kebeles and town administration to get more detail information.
3.2. Sample Size and Sampling Technique
The sample design to conduct is purposive non-random selection. The sample size of respondent for
questionnaire is fifty /50/ respondents. The respondents are resident of sampled kebele, officer of
kebele and town administration. Secondary data are obtained from annual report of Wolkite town
administration, annual report of kebele 01, 02 and 03 data, reference book, and interview of
concerned bodies, physical observation and internet are employed to collect reliable data that will
make paper analyses more clear and understandable.
3.3. Methods of Data Analysis
In this study differ data profile will be employed in descriptive analysis form. The descriptive analysis
will include statistical tools such as tabulation, average, percentage, ration, and diagram
representation. They will be applied to explain impact of rapid population growth on social and
economic development of the town in clear and qualitative way. Data analysis will be in both
quantitative or numerical and qualitative ways.
3.4. Dissemination of results
The finding of the study will be provided to the Wolkite Town Administration Office.
17
CHAPTER FOUR
No Activity Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June
1 Topic Selection x x
2 Preparation of proposal x x
3 Collection of useful x
material
4 Data Collection x x
5 Data Analysis and writing x x x
of final research
6 Submission of research x
7 Presentation of final x
research
18
REFERENCE
Bo Malmberg (2004), population growth and socio- economic development, lesson press, Addis
Ababa-Ethiopia.
Fessessu, N (2002), Geography text book grade 12, Mega printing press, Addis Ababa-Ethiopia.
Ministry of Finance and Economic development (MOFED), Population and reproductive health,
2008.master printing press, Addis Ababa-Ethiopia.
Michael P.T. and Stephens, S, Economic Development, tenth edition, 2009, New York University, USA.
Befekadu.D and Birhanu, N, (1999/2000), Annual report on the Ethiopian economy, volume 1,
2000E.C, Ethiopian Economic Association Press, Addis Ababa-Ethiopia.
Girma, K, (2003), population, labor force and unemployment in the primitive city of Ethiopia, Volume
25, Artistic printer press, Addis Ababa-Ethiopia.
Abdi Ifa, Annual Report of Wolkite town, 2007 EC, Unpublished.
Firaol Gadissa, Annual Report of Oromia, 2000EC, Firomsa printing press, Addis Ababa -Ethiopia.
19
APPENDIX
QUESTIONNAIRE
BACK GROUND INFORMATION
Kindly tick where appropriate (√).
1. Gender
Male [ ]
Female [ ]
2. Age
<20 [ ]
20-35 years [ ]
36-50 years [ ]
5-9.1 [ ]
>9 [ ]
4. Educational level of respondents
Education level [ ]
Illiterate [ ]
Basic and primary [ ]
Secondary and high school [ ]
Technical /vocation/ [ ]
Higher education [ ]
20
6. How much is your monthly income?
<500 [ ]
500-1000 [ ]
1000-2000 [ ]
>2000 [ ]
Total [ ]
7. How many work experience do you have?
<4 [ ]
5-9 [ ]
<9 [ ]
HOUSING CONDITION OF RESPONDENTS
8. How is your ownership to your house?
Owned [ ]
Government [ ]
Rented [ ]
Other [ ]
Total [ ]
9. From what materials does your house built?
Wood with mud [ ]
Blocket [ ]
Metal [ ]
Other [ ]
Total [ ]
10. How many rooms do your house has?
1-4 [ ]
5-9 [ ]
>9 [ ]
DOCUMENT INFORMATION
21
11. What are the determinants of rapid population growth in
wolkite town? Fill the boxes.
Year(E.C Determinant of population
)
birth % death % Net % Total %
migratio populatio
n n
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
22