TSMC 4Q22 Transcript
TSMC 4Q22 Transcript
EDITED TRANSCRIPT
2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Earnings Call (Chinese, English)
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
C. C. Wei Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - CEO
Jeff Su Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - Director of IR
Wendell Huang Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - VP & CFO
Mark Liu Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - Chairman
PRESENTATION
Jeff Su - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - Director of IR
(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director
of Investor Relations and your host for today. TSMC is hosting our Earnings Conference Call via live audio webcast through the company's website
at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. If you're joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines
are in listen-only mode.
The format for today's event will be as follows: First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the fourth
quarter 2022, followed by our guidance for the first quarter 2023. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the
company's key messages. Then TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session, where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.
As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks
and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the
safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.
And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
In NT dollar terms, revenue increased 2% in the fourth quarter due to a more favorable foreign exchange rate. Gross margin increased 1.8 percentage
points sequentially to 62.2% mainly due to a more favorable foreign exchange rate and cost improvement efforts, partially offset by lower capacity
utilization.
Total operating expenses accounted for 10.3% of net revenue. Operating margin was 52%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Overall, our fourth quarter EPS was TWD 11.41 and ROE was 41.7%.
Now let's move on to the revenue by technology. 5-nanometer process technology contributed 32% of wafer revenue in the fourth quarter while
7-nanometer accounted for 22%. Advanced Technologies defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 54% of wafer revenue.
On a full year basis, 5-nanometer technology contributed 26% of 2022 wafer revenue. 7-nanometer was 27%. Advanced Technologies accounted
for 53% of total wafer revenue, up from 50% in 2021.
Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC increased 10% quarter-over-quarter to account for 42% of our fourth quarter revenue.
Smartphone decreased 4% to account for 38%, IoT decreased 11% to account for 8%, automotive increased 10% to account for 6% and DCE
decreased 23% to account for 2%.
On a full year basis, all 6 platforms had year-on-year growth. HPC increased 59% year-on-year to account for 41% of our 2022 revenue. Smartphone
increased 28% to account for 39%, IoT increased 47% to account for 9%, automotive increased 74% to account for 5%, and DCE increased 1% to
account for 3%.
Moving on to the balance sheet, we ended the fourth quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 1.56 trillion or USD 51 billion. On the
liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 137 billion, mainly due to the increase of TWD 48 billion in accounts payable, an increase of TWD
93 billion in accrued liabilities and others.
On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days remain at 36 days while days of inventory increased 3 days to 93 days.
Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the fourth quarter, we generated about TWD 487 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 337 billion in
CapEx and distributed TWD 71 billion for first quarter 2022 cash dividend.
Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 47 billion to TWD 1.34 trillion at the end of the quarter.
In U.S. dollar terms, our fourth quarter capital expenditures totaled $10.82 billion.
To recap our performance in 2022. We had a strong growth in 2022 as our technology leadership position enabled us to capture the industry's
megatrends of 5G and HPC. Our revenue increased 33.5% in U.S. dollar terms to reach $76 billion and 42.6% in NT terms to reach TWD 2.26 trillion.
Gross margin increased 8 percentage points to 59.6%, mainly reflecting a more favorable foreign exchange rate, value-selling efforts and cost
improvement, partially offset by lower capacity utilization. Thanks to better operating leverage, operating margin increased 8.6 percentage points
to 49.5%.
Overall, full year EPS increased 70.4% to TWD 39.2 and ROE was 39.8%.
On cash flow, we spent USD 36.3 billion or TWD 1.1 trillion in CapEx. We generated TWD 1.6 trillion in operating cash flow and TWD 528 billion in
free cash flow. We also paid TWD 285 billion in cash dividends in 2022, up from TWD 266 billion in 2021. I have finished my financial summary.
Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance. As overall macroeconomic conditions remain weak, we expect our business to be further impacted
by continued end market demand softness and customers' further inventory adjustment.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Based on the current business outlook, we expect our first quarter revenue to be between USD 16.7 billion and USD 17.5 billion, representing a
14.2% sequential decline at the midpoint.
Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 30.7, gross margin is expected to be between 53.5% and 55.5%, operating margin between
41.5% and 43.5%.
Starting in 2023, certain tax exemptions from the Taiwan government have expired. However, the government has recently passed the amendments
to the Statute for Industrial Innovations. All things considered, we expect our effective tax rate in 2023 and beyond to be approximately 15%. This
concludes my financial presentation.
Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by making some comments on our fourth quarter '22 and first quarter '23 profitability. Compared
to third quarter, our fourth quarter gross margin increased by 180 basis points sequentially to 62.2%, of which 140 basis points was contributed
by a more favorable foreign exchange rate. Meanwhile, cost improvement efforts also helped offset the impact from a lower capacity utilization.
Compared to our fourth quarter guidance, our actual gross margin exceeded the high end of the range provided 3 months ago, mainly due to cost
improvement efforts.
We have just guided our first quarter gross margin to be 54.5% at the midpoint mainly due to a lower capacity utilization rate as customers further
adjust their inventory levels and a less favorable foreign exchange rate.
In 2023, our gross margin faces challenges from lower capacity utilization due to semiconductor cyclicality, the ramp-up of N3, overseas fab
expansion and inflationary cost.
In addition, R&D expenses accounted for 7.2% of our net revenue in 2022. In 2023, as we increase our focus on technology development and add
more resources, we expect R&D expenses to increase by about 20% year-on-year and account for 8% to 8.5% of our net revenue.
To manage our profitability in 2023, we will work diligently on internal cost improvement efforts while continuing to strategically and consistently
sell our value.
Excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate, we continue to forecast a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable.
Next, let me talk about our 2023 capital budget and depreciation. Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in
future years. As I have stated before, given the near-term uncertainties, we continue to manage our business prudently and tighten up our capital
spending where appropriate. That said, our commitment to support customers' structural growth remains unchanged, and our disciplined CapEx
and capacity planning remains based on the long-term market demand profile.
In 2022, we spent $36.3 billion to capture the structural demand and support our customers' growth. In 2023, our capital budget is expected to be
between USD 32 billion and USD 36 billion. Out of the USD 32 billion to USD 36 billion CapEx for 2023, about 70% will be allocated for advanced
process technologies. About 20% will be spent for specialty technologies and about 10% will be spent for advanced packaging, mask making and
others.
Our depreciation expense is expected to increase by approximately 30% year-over-year in 2023 mainly as we ramp our 3-nanometer technologies.
With this level of CapEx spending in 2023, we reiterate that TSMC remains committed to a sustainable cash dividends on both an annual and
quarterly basis. We will continue to work closely with our customers to plan our long-term capacity and invest in leading-edge and specialty
technologies to support their growth while delivering profitable growth to our shareholders.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Concluding 2022, the semiconductor industry growth excluding memory, was about 10%, while foundry increased about 27% year-over-year.
TSMC's revenue grew 33.5% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms.
Our business was supported by our strong technology leadership and differentiation, even as a semiconductor inventory correction began to
dampen the momentum in second half 2022.
Entering 2023, we continue to observe softness in consumer end market segment, while other end market segments such as data center related
have softened as well.
As customers and the supply chain continue to take action, we forecast the semiconductor supply chain inventory will reduce sharply through first
half 2023, to rebalance to a healthier level.
In the first half of 2023, we expect our revenue to decline mid- to high single-digit percent over the same period last year in U.S. dollar terms.
Having said that, we also start to observe some initial signs of demand stabilization, and we will watch closely for more signals. We forecast the
semiconductor cycle to bottom sometime in first half 2023, and to see a healthy recovery in second half this year.
In the second half of 2023, we expect our revenue to increase over the same period last year in U.S. dollar terms.
For the full year of 2023, we forecast the semiconductor market, excluding memory, to decline approximately 4% while foundry industry is forecast
to decline 3%. For TSMC, supported by our strong technology leadership and differentiation, we will continue to expand our customer product
portfolio and increase our addressable market, and we expect 2023 to be a slight growth year for TSMC in U.S. dollar terms.
Next, let me talk about the N7/N6 demand outlook. Three months ago, we said our N7/N6 capacity utilization in first half '23 will not be as high as
it has been in the past 3 years, due to end market weakness in smartphone and PCs and customers' product schedule delay. Since then, the end
market demand for smartphone and PCs has further weakened and the capacity utilization of N7/N6 is lower than our expectation 3 months ago.
We expect this to persist through first half '23 as the semiconductor supply chain inventory takes a few quarters to rebalance to a healthier level,
and we expect a mild pickup in our N7/N6 demand in second half '23 than our prior expectation.
However, we continue to believe N7/N6 demand is more a cyclical issue rather than structural. We are working closely with our customers to
develop specialty and differentiated technologies to drive additional wave of structural demand from consumer, RF, connectivity and other
applications to backfill our N7/N6 capacity over the next several years. Thus, we are confident our 7-nanometer family will continue to be a large
and long-lasting node for TSMC.
Now I will talk about our N3 and N3E status. Our N3 has successfully entered volume production in late fourth quarter last year as planned, with
good yield. We expect a smooth ramp in 2023 driven by both HPC and smartphone applications. As our customers' demand for N3 exceeds our
ability to supply, we expect the N3 to be fully utilized in 2023. Sizable N3 revenue contribution, we expect to start in third quarter '23 and N3 will
contribute mid-single-digit percentage of our total wafer revenue in 2023. We expect the N3 revenue in 2023 to be higher than N5 revenue in its
first year in 2020.
N3E will further extend our N3 family with enhanced performance, power, and yield and offer complete platform support for both smartphone
and HPC applications. Volume production is scheduled for second half '23.
Despite the ongoing inventory correction, we continue to observe a high level of customer engagement at both the N3 and N3E with a number
of tape-outs more than 2x that of N5 in its first and second year.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Our 3-nanometer technology is the most advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor technology, thus, we expect customers
a strong demand in 2023, 2024, 2025 and beyond for our 3-nanometer technologies and are confident that our N3 family will be another large and
long-lasting node for TSMC.
Finally, let me talk about our plans to expand TSMC's global manufacturing footprint to increase customers' trust and expand our future growth
potential. TSMC's mission is to be trusted technology and capacity provider for the global logic IC industry for years to come. Our job is to provide
the optimal solutions for our customers to enable their success. This including technology leadership, manufacturing, cost, trust and recently also
including more geographic manufacturing flexibility.
Based on customers' request, we are increasing our capacity outside of Taiwan to continue to provide our customers the optimal solution they
need to be successful. TSMC's decisions are based on our customers' need and the necessary level of government support. This is to maximize the
value for our shareholders. Our decisions are also based on the talent pool, land, electricity and water needs for TSMC's long-term growth.
In the U.S., we are in the process of building 2 advanced semiconductor fabs in Arizona. Our U.S. customers welcome us to build capacity in the
U.S. to support their need and have pledged their strong commitment and support. We had an opening ceremony on December 6 last year to
celebrate the arrival of the first batch of state-of-the-art semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Fab 1 is on track to begin production of
N4 process technology in 2024.
We also announced the construction of a second fab, which is scheduled to begin production of 3-nanometer process technology in 2026. TSMC
Arizona will continue to provide the most advanced semiconductor technology commercially available in the U.S., enabling next-generation,
high-performance and low-power computing products in the future years. Each of our fab will have a clean room area that approximately double
the size of a typical logic fab.
We will also consider building additional mature node capacity outside of Taiwan. In Japan, we are building a specialty technology fab, which will
utilize 12- and 16-nanometer, and 22/28 process technologies. Volume production is scheduled for late 2024. We are also considering building a
second fab in Japan, as long as the demand from customers and the level of government support makes sense.
In Europe, we're engaging with customers and partners to evaluate the possibility of building a specialty fab, focusing on automotive-specific
technologies, based on the demand from customers and level of government support. In China, we expand 28-nanometer in Nanjing as planned
to support local customers, and we continue to follow all the rules and regulation fully. At the same time, we continue to invest in Taiwan and
expand our capacity to support our customers' growth.
Our N3 has just entered volume production in Tainan Science Park. We are also preparing for N2 volume production starting in 2025, which will
be located in Hsinchu and Taichung Science Park.
While capacity is not born overnight and takes time to build, we are committed to expanding our global manufacturing footprint to increase
customer trust and expand our future growth potential. Depending on the demand from customers and level of government support, our
28-nanometer and below overseas capacity could be 20% or more of our total 28-nanometer and below capacity in 5 years or more time.
While initial cost of overseas fab are higher than TSMC's fab in Taiwan. Our goal is manage and minimize the cost gap.
Our pricing will remain strategic to reflect our value, which also including the value of geographic flexibility. At the same time, we are leveraging
our competitive advantage of lost volume, economies of scale and manufacturing technology leadership to continuously drive cost down. We will
also continue to work closely with our government to secure their support.
By taking such actions, TSMC will have the ability to absorb the higher cost of overseas fabs while remaining the most efficient and cost-effective
manufacturer, no matter where we operate.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Thus, even we increased our capacity outside of Taiwan, we believe long-term gross margin of 53% and higher continue to be achievable, and we
can earn a sustainable and healthy ROE of greater than 25% while delivering profitable growth for our shareholders. This concluding our key
message. Thank you for your attention.
Randy Abrams - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Okay. I wanted to ask the first question just about the rising investment costs and also the cost differential with the U.S. Just based on the 2 press
releases, the Taiwan fab, you cited Fab 18, about USD 60 billion investment for 8 phases, which would be, I estimate about 200,000 capacity. That's
about $300 million per thousand wafer. The Arizona fab was $40 billion for about 50,000, $800 million per 1,000 wafers. So just 2 questions on it.
If you could maybe discuss a bit more if there's differences in those releases on the investment in calculation, and a bit more color on the relative
costs since you do the U.S. expansion?
And then the second part of the question is, is the cost seeing a significant acceleration? It's been rising with each new node. But are you seeing
an accelerating pace as you move through 3- and 2-nanometer?
Randy, if I got you correctly, basically what Randy is asking is, what is the cost in the U.S. seem much higher in terms of the investment? So what is
driving this big difference or a gap, so to speak. That's the first part of your question, right, Randy. Okay. So that's the first part.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Randy Abrams - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes, that's right. That's the first part.
The high cost of construction includes labor cost, cost of permits, cost of occupational safety and health regulations, inflationary costs in recent
years and people and learning curve costs. Therefore, the initial costs of overseas fabs are higher than our fabs in Taiwan.
Randy Abrams - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes, it's seeing a faster pace of expansion through these next couple of nodes.
Randy Abrams - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Okay. And the second question, just wanted to ask actually 2 areas that came up in the remarks. The R&D, the over 20% increase. If you could give
a feel like what's mainly driving that additional step up, is it the development cost for the new nodes, the packaging? Or is it some now expanding
R&D into new geographic areas?
And if I can fit in the second part, just the tax rate, Taiwan was hyping a pretty big program of CapEx and R&D, but tax breaks, but your tax rate is
going up from 11% to 15%. Is that alternative minimum tax or global tax? Just want to understand why not any benefit from that?
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
The other thing about tax, in 2023, part of the tax exemptions -- or incentives in Taiwan have expired. Without the new amendments to this Industrial
Innovation, the Statute of Industrial Innovation, our tax rate would have become between 18% to 19%. With this new amendment, our tax rates
will drop to about 15%.
Randy Abrams - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes, that does, I mean this mid-term R&D, do you think the rate stays at this level or could go up one more? That's my final one.
Operator
Sure. And our next question is come from Bruce Lu with Goldman Sachs.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
And then I think, Bruce, the second part of your question is also how can we avoid the same cyclical systems at other nodes in the future. Is that
correct?
Will it be repeated at 5 or 3? Cyclicality of the semiconductor always exist, but it's unlikely this time the scenario was to be repeated because our
current downturn actually, it's kind of being enhanced or being degraded by the pandemic.
Due to the pandemic, the digital transformation progress have been enhanced. And so the demand being increased dramatically. But then due to
the pandemic, the supply chain disruption happened. And people during this time, probably changed their strategy or their thoughts on the
inventory buildup. So artificially, the inventory has been built up quickly and dramatically.
And then the response to the each industry are different. And so they manage that the inventory correction also differently. This kind of phenomenon
all because of -- largely because of pandemic, and we don't think that it will happen again. And in the next 5-nanometer, 3-nanometer, I believe
TSMC and TSMC's customer will be more prudent on planning that what is the demand and also the supply.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Operator
And our next question is come from Gokul Hariharan with JPMorgan.
Gokul Hariharan - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Let me take my first question on the near-term 2023. So you mentioned first half, we have seen a worse kind of environment compared to 3 months
back. Is it mainly HPC data center that has seen further reduction? Or are we seeing it across the board, including smartphone for first half?
And also on second half, just putting in rough numbers on your guidance, looks like we are looking for a pretty sharp rebound in second half of
2023, something like 25% to 30% second half versus first half of this year. Could we have some more color on what are the areas that gives you the
confidence for such a strong rebound in the second half of the year to get us back to like a flattish revenue growth for the year?
Gokul Hariharan - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Okay. I think N3 is clearly one part of that ramp. But is there anything else that is -- that you are already seeing that strong confidence for the second
half rebound in addition to the N3 ramp-up?
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Gokul Hariharan - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Understood. Okay. That's my first question. Jeff, can I move on to the second one?
Gokul Hariharan - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
My second question is on CapEx and capital intensity. CapEx, we are taking it down a notch for this year given the downturn, I guess, and some
conservatism. Are we already seeing the peak in CapEx intensity in the cycle? Or we are likely to given the plans in Europe plans to expand more
capacity in U.S.? Are we likely to see higher CapEx intensity in the out years as well?
Now we've given the guidance for this year, so you can calculate the capital intensity. It will be over 40%. From what we are able to see at this
moment, several years down the road, we're seeing the CapEx intensity to be between mid- to high 30s. That's the current view.
Gokul Hariharan - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Is that several years like 5 years out? Or is it like closer to that?
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Operator
And our next question is come from Charlie Chan with Morgan Stanley.
So my question is that you mentioned during your peak saying that the biggest change for semiconductor is cost is getting higher, along so-called
difficulty in supply chain. So I wanted to ask C.C. what's the true value-add of Moore's Law going forward since it becomes much more expensive
and whether you really see that customers can continue to expand their gross margin and create value to this world. So this is my first question.
In the future, we want the world to be more greener, more safer, better. So power consumption needs become very, very important. And while
we still improve the system performance and that's where our customer can get their value. And that's what we view in the future.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Operator
And our next question is come from Sunny Lin with UBS.
Sunny Lin - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - Director & Associate Analyst
So my first question is on the N3 ramp up. And so if we look at the share revenue could be higher than 5-nanometer for the first year. But if we look
at the sales contribution as a percentage of total sales, it's actually a bit lower. And so I wonder for this year, perhaps there's some market demand
issue. But looking into 2024 and 2025 based on your current customer engagement, should we model a faster ramp-up into 2024 or 2025 or its
overall ramp-up could be slight slower because of maybe customer schedule issues or planning? And if we think about the peak revenue contribution
for 3-nanometer over time, do you think you will be able to reach 30% range, as N5 and N7. That's my first question.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Sunny Lin - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - Director & Associate Analyst
Yes, partially. So any thoughts on the potential peak revenue contribution in the next couple of years?
Sunny Lin - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - Director & Associate Analyst
Got it. My second question is a quick one. And so for you to growth rate for this year. Just wonder what kind of industry growth are you assuming
for the major end markets, including smartphone, PC, server, automotive?
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Sunny Lin - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - Director & Associate Analyst
Sorry. Yes. So just a quick follow-up on server and automotive. So any expectations on server units for this year. And for auto, I think on October
earnings call, you mentioned there could be some slowdown going to first half of the year. Have you started to see the deceleration? That's all my
questions.
And the units, for the units to grow, we expect the automotive to grow this year, but that's an OEM stuff.
Operator
Our next question is come from Laura Chen with Citigroup.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Operator
Thank you. And our next question is come from Rolf Bulk with New Street Research.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Rolf, I want to make one correction when our CFO said the, when you refer to 5x greater, I think our CFO was saying the construction costs are 4
to 5x higher, not the CapEx cost, but nonetheless, Rolf is asking for a breakout, of the CapEx?
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Operator
The next question is come from Charles Shi with Needham.
Charles Shi - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division - Senior Analyst
I want to ask a little bit about the 20% R&D expense step-up in this year. Can you provide a little bit more detail what the incremental R&D expense
are going to be directed at? Well, for one thing, if I understand correctly, your N3 R&D team are going to move on to the N+2 node if we have 3
nanometer as the current N node, or is there any other incremental R&D spending this year you're expecting to be around design enablement,
Advanced Packaging, specialty technology. Can you kind of give us a sense where the big step-up is coming from?
Charles Shi - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division - Senior Analyst
Yes. Yes, I do. Maybe a second question. I want to ask about specialty technology. Obviously, you expect specialty technology to backfill your
7-nanometer fabs. I think this may be a more common knowledge inside the industry, but I recently spoke to some of your customers who are
more on the analog mixed signal side. A lot of them are, I mean, driving volumes more from 28-nanometer and above, and they could tell me that
the benefit of going to 14-nanometer, 16-nanometer for you, 7-nanometer is there, but it's not large enough as in the past, moving node to node.
And at the same time, the cost is much higher, and I look at your technology road map, specialty technology, road map, it does seems to me that
the specialty technology platforms are not as broad as the 7-nanometer if I compare with the 28-nanometer and above.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
I just want to get some insights from you. How do you think about the progression of specialty technology going forward, as it seems to me that
it's kind of slowing down a little bit more slowing a little bit down faster for the analog mixed signal customers.
Let me share with you that one thing like the WiFi, you need a really, very high speed to move to the next generation and also the RF. For those
kind of things, you need a very high-performance of the computing together with low power consumption. It is important. And if you want to get
the lower power consumption, the only the leading-edge node it can give you that kind of opportunities. All the footprint stays the same, then if
you want to have a higher functionality with a lower power consumption, that's where you have to move into the 7-nanometer or more advanced
node even with the analog product. Did that answer your question?
Charles Shi - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division - Senior Analyst
Yes. So I think this is above the reason that you feel still quite confident about 7-nanometer utilization will come back. You said it will mildly come
back a little bit in '23, but you're still confident '24 and forward, the 7-nanometer will still be a very, very long-lasting node for you.
Operator
The next question is come from Brad Lin with Bank of America.
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Now of course, the cost will be higher. And I think our team has been focused on how do we do this at the same time, keep our minimum gross
margin to be 53% and above. And that is the standard that we decide how the pace of our global expansion going to be, and there are other
segments in terms of the space, of course.
The global expansion increased the value to our customers and to the new geopolitical environment. And therefore, the pricing, how the customer
can shoulder the increased cost in terms of pricing. And of course, the -- geopolitically, the semiconductor in the U.S. and Japan are all new. So I
believe we are working hard on how to reduce the cost by building up the semiconductor supply ecosystem in U.S. and Japan. And I think indeed,
both governments echo are -- not just us, also rather other major companies to build a similar capacity in this place to reduce the costs.
So that is the general arrangement we are planning. There's no fixed rate. Of course, the government support will be another factor. And so that
is, we are cautiously step-by-step to make sure our shareholders' value still be kept.
And also R&D is quite valuable for TSMC. And should we continue to allocate the R&D to mature node when maintaining good pace at leading
edge and advanced packaging?
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Operator
Sure. Our last question is come from Mehdi Hosseini with Susquehanna International Group.
Mehdi Hosseini - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division - Senior Analyst
Yes. I want to go back to gross margin. I'm a little bit confused if you could clarify something. Your wafer shipment in Q4 declined and also FX
actually strengthened by a little bit, which should be negative on gross margin. So your cost-cutting efforts must have been greatly exceeding
these trends. And I want to get a better feel for it, and I have a follow-up.
Mehdi Hosseini - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division - Senior Analyst
Okay. So the volume helped. Now if I just take your comment about the first half, declining 5% to 10% on a year-over-year basis. It does imply that
there is a chance that revenues in Q2 would decline on a sequential basis. Would that also drive gross margin down on a sequential basis?
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JANUARY 12, 2023 / 6:00AM, 2330.TW - Q4 2022 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Earnings Call
(Chinese, English)
Mehdi Hosseini - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division - Senior Analyst
Understood. Sure. Understood. But could it go below 53% and then rebound. So it would average to 53%.
All right. Thank you. Okay. This concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the
conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will be available 24 hours from now, both of which you can find and is
available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. Thank you again for joining us today. We wish everyone a happy Lunar New Year, and we
hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a good day.
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