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Exercises 04

This document contains 6 problems related to decision analysis and engineering decisions. Problem 1 involves a coin toss gamble and analyzing the options from a pessimistic perspective. Problem 2 involves finding points on number lines and coordinate planes related to decision problems. Problem 3 involves finding the Maximin mixed action for a scenario with states, actions, and their mixtures. Problem 4 involves producing a decision table and finding the optimal stock proportion for a drink seller. Problem 5 represents an investment decision as a decision tree and table and finds the Maximin and miniMax Regret strategies. Problem 6 analyzes a decision table for dominated strategies.

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57 views3 pages

Exercises 04

This document contains 6 problems related to decision analysis and engineering decisions. Problem 1 involves a coin toss gamble and analyzing the options from a pessimistic perspective. Problem 2 involves finding points on number lines and coordinate planes related to decision problems. Problem 3 involves finding the Maximin mixed action for a scenario with states, actions, and their mixtures. Problem 4 involves producing a decision table and finding the optimal stock proportion for a drink seller. Problem 5 represents an investment decision as a decision tree and table and finds the Maximin and miniMax Regret strategies. Problem 6 analyzes a decision table for dominated strategies.

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孙培尧
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GSOE9210 Engineering Decisions

Problem Set 04

1. At a school fête, a suspicious-looking man is offering bets on the toss of


a coin of questionable fairness. The man is offering $2 for each dollar bet
(plus your original dollar) if the contestant chooses the face on the coin
correctly; i.e., if you bet $1 and win you will gain $2, leaving you with $3;
if you lose you will lose the dollar you bet, leaving you with $0.
(a) Suppose Alice has a $10 note in her pocket; represent the gamble as
a decision table. Include the option of leaving (L) (i.e., refusing to
gamble).
(b) If Alice were pessimistic (i.e., she used Maximin as her decision rule),
would Alice bet on heads or tails, or not bet?
(c) Suppose Alice has a similarly pessimistic friend Bob, and both could
bet together on the same toss, would that affect Alice’s decision?
(d) Suppose Alice was friendless but had—instead of one $10 note—10
$1 coins in her pocket. How might this affect her decision?
2. (a) Find the value 43 of the way from 4 to 2 on the number line.
(b) Find a general expression for the value µ of the way from a to b on
the number line.
Consider the decision problem below:
s1 s2
A 2 3
B 4 0
C 3 3
D 5 2
E 3 5

(c) Plot the actions as points on the Cartesian plane. Find the coordi-
nates of the point µ of the way from B to A.
(d) Find the point, P (x, y), on the segment AB that intersects with the
diagonal y = x.
(e) Find the Maximin mixed action for the decision problem above.
3. Consider a scenario with four states, two pure actions, and their mixtures
(M ), where µA = µ:

s1 s2 s3 s4
A 4 2 1 3
B 0 1 5 2

1
(a) Draw the mixture plot for this problem.
(b) Do all states need to be considered when determining the Maximin
mixed action?
(c) Find the Maximin mixed action, and the Maximin value—i.e., the
value of the Maximin mixed action—for this problem.

4. Alice sells drinks at a local market once every month. She can order stock
to sell several drink types: a) hot chocolate; b) iced tea; c) lemonade;
d) orange juice.
From past experience she knows that when she sells only one type of drink,
on warm days her sales total for each type are: $10 on hot chocolate, $40
on iced tea, $30 on lemonade, and $40 on orange juice. On cool days,
however, her sales totals are: $30 on hot chocolate, $0 on iced tea, $20 on
lemonade, and $10 on orange juice.
She has to order her stock weeks in advance, long before she can predict
the temperature on the day of the market.

(a) Produce a decision table for this problem.


(b) If for the same total amount of stock she can stock different drinks,
what proportion of drinks should she stock to maximise her guaran-
teed daily sales total regardless of the temperature?
(c) Draw the admissibility frontier for this problem. Are any actions
inadmissible?

5. Alice is considering whether to invest $1000, and if so on which type of


investment and for how long (full term or half). She is looking at a risky
stock (R) which will either rise (r) in value by 6% or flatten (f ) to 0%.
If she invests in the risky stock she must do so for the full term, before
she knows how the stock’s price will change. Another option is to invest
in a fixed rate option (F), which gives a constant return of 2%. For the
fixed-term investment she has a further option to invest initially for a long
term (L) (i.e., for the full term), or a short term (S) (half term). At the
end of the short term, she will know the movement of the risky stock, and
will be able to re-invest for the remaining period by doing the following:
(a) if the risky stock has risen, she will switch to it earning an average
profit of 4%; (b) if the risky stock has fallen she’ll reinvest in F but will
receive a lower rate, which would reduce her gains to 1% per annum.

(a) Represent this situation as a decision tree (i.e., in extensive form)


and as a decision table.
(b) How many information sets are there in this problem?
(c) Assuming diversified stock portfolios (i.e., mixtures of investments)
are allowed, which mixed strategies are admissible?
(d) Which is the Maximin mixed strategy?
(e) Which is the miniMax Regret mixed strategy?

6. Consider the following decision table, in which mixed strategies are al-
lowed.

2
s1 s2
A 4 0
B 1 4
C 2 1

(a) Which, if any, strategies are dominated?


(b) Prove that a possible strategy S, with payoffs 2 and 3 in states s1
and s1 respectively, would not be dominated.

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