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Lesson Support
Content Objective Students will learn to generate and use random samples to represent a population.
COMMON
CORE Mathematics Standards Professional Development
7.SP.2 Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about COMMON
CORE Integrate Mathematical Practices MP.5
a population with an unknown characteristic of interest.
Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the This lesson provides an opportunity to address this Mathematical
same size to gauge the variation in estimates or Practice standard. It calls for students to use appropriate tools
predictions. strategically. Students use graphing calculators to generate
random samples and then make predictions about an entire
MP.5 Use appropriate tools strategically. population. Students also simulate a random selection of
numbers without technology by using numbered pieces of paper
and a paper bag, and use the results to make predictions about a
population.
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PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Language Objective Students will demonstrate how to generate and use random samples to represent a population.
Expanding
Working in small groups is an excellent way for English learners to deepen concept knowledge.
Have students list the ways random samples can be generated. Have students of mixed language
proficiency work together.
Bridging
To make sure that the nuances of language have not prevented students from understanding the
concepts, have them discuss how to generate random samples with and without technology.
To help English learners discuss math concepts, provide sentence frames for
Math Talk them when possible.
Building Background
The following words appear throughout the student text, so they may be
familiar to students at the expanding and bridging levels of English proficiency:
infer, predict, guess, conjecture. The challenge for all students, but especially for
English learners, is that there is overlap in the meanings of these words, which
makes it difficult for students to grasp the differences among them. Words like
these with similar meanings are called synonyms. Have English learners add
these words to their word journals.
10.3
CORE 7.SP.2
Use data from a random
LESSON COMMON
7.SP.2, MP.5 sample ... Generate multiple
CORE
Samples samples (or simulated
samples) of the same size
to gauge the variation in
estimates or predictions.
2 Explore
In this specific case, the students will enter randInt ( 1 , 200 ) 93
75
178
because there are 200 students in school.
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The group gets a list of all the students in the school and assigns a number
Focus on Communication to each one. The group surveys the students with the given numbers.
Students may expect a series of random numbers to
be somewhat evenly distributed or to not include Of the 20 students surveyed, 9 chose Tigers. The percent choosing
the lower or upper limit of the range (1 or 200 in this Tigers was 45% . What might the group infer?
case). Students should understand that randomly The group might infer that the name Bears will probably
generated numbers may or may not be distributed
win, or that both names are almost equally likely to win.
evenly within the given range, can repeat, and can
include any number in the given range.
Lesson 10.3 323
Focus on Technology
Another possible syntax for the randInt command
is randInt (x, y, z), where x is the smallest value, y is DIFFERENTIATE INSTRUCTION Leveled Questions
the largest value, and z is the number of random
integers generated. EXPLORE ACTIVITY 1
AL DOK 1 Recall How many integers do you need to represent the sample
Avoid Common Errors
for the situation? 20 integers
Several graphing calculator functions have similar
names to the randInt function. Students must OL DOK 2 Skills/Concepts When a calculator generates random numbers, can the
choose the randInt function to produce a usable same number appear more than once? Explain. Yes; every
random sample. number in the selected range of values has the same
chance of appearing every time a number is generated.
BL DOK 3 Strategic Thinking Is it likely that each student in a class of 25 would get the
same percent choosing “Tigers” from their simulations? Why
or why not? No; sample answer: It is likely that the students
would generate different numbers and survey different
students. There would be overlap, but not enough to
produce the same percentages for the 25 different
simulations.
323 Lesson 10.3 LEVELED QUESTIONS: AL Approaching Level | OL On Level | BL Beyond Level
EXPLORE ACTIVITY 1 (cont’d)
B You can simulate multiple random samples to see how much statistical
measures vary for different samples of size 20.
Focus on Critical Thinking
Students may feel that a larger sample will always
Assume that the 200 students are evenly divided among those voting
for Tigers and those voting for Bears. You can generate random
give more accurate results than a smaller sample.
numbers and let each number represent a vote. Let numbers from 1 to Discuss with students how a larger sample is more
100 represent votes for Tigers, and numbers from 101 to 200 represent likely to be representative of the population than
votes for Bears. For each simulated sample, use randInt(1, 200) and
generate 20 numbers.
a smaller sample, but there will still be cases
where a smaller sample can produce the more
Perform the simulation 10 times and record how many numbers from
1 to 100 are generated. How many of the samples indicated that there
accurate results.
were 9 or fewer votes for Tigers?
Check students’ results.
Combine your results with those of your classmates. Make a dot plot
showing the number of numbers from 1 to 100 generated in each
simulation.
Check students’ results.
Reflect
1. Communicate Mathematical Reasoning Assume that it was accurate
to say that the 200 students are evenly divided among those voting for
Tigers and those voting for Bears. Based on your results, does it seem likely
that in a sample of size 20, there would be 9 or fewer votes for Tigers?
Check students’ results.
2. Make a Prediction Based on your answers, do you think it is likely
that Tigers will win? Explain.
Check students’ results.
3. Multiple Representations Suppose you wanted to simulate a
324 Unit 5
3 Explain
Generating a Random Sample
EXPLORE ACTIVITY 2
without Technology
Focus on Communication A tree farm has a 100 acre square field arranged in a 10-by-10
The randomness of the sample is dependent on array. The farmer wants to know the average number of trees per
acre. Each cell in the table represents an acre. The number in each
using objects that can easily simulate randomness. cell represents the number of trees on that acre.
A flipped coin results in unpredictable movement
when it lands, but a heavier object might not. 22 24 27 29 31 24 27 29 30 25
Discuss with students what objects seem likely to
37 22 60 53 62 42 64 53 41 62
produce a random sample.
61 54 57 34 44 66 39 60 65 40
Engage with the Whiteboard
45 33 64 36 33 51 62 66 42 42
Before performing the experiment, have a
student circle 10 numbers in the array, 37 34 57 33 47 43 66 33 61 66
attempting to choose cells at random. Compare
66 45 46 67 60 59 51 46 67 48
the outcome of the experiment to the student’s
circled numbers. Discuss whether the student’s 53 46 35 35 55 56 61 46 38 64
selection seems random compared to the actually 55 51 54 62 55 58 51 45 41 53
random selection. How are they different?
61 38 48 48 43 59 64 48 49 47
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Digital Teacher Resources 41 53 53 59 58 48 62 53 45 59
Go online to access all your The farmer decides to choose a random sample of 10 of the acres.
lesson-level resources. A To simulate the random selection, number the table columns 1–10 from left to right,
Differentiated Instruction and the rows 1–10 from top to bottom. Write the numbers 1–10 on identical pieces of
paper. Place the pieces into a bag. Draw one at random, replace it, and draw another.
t Reteach Let the first number represent a table column, and the second represent a row. For
my.hrw.com t Reading Strategies instance, a draw of 2 and then 3 represents the cell in the second column and third
t Success for English Learners row of the table, an acre containing 54 trees. Repeat this process 9 more times.
t Practice and Problem Solving B Based on your sample, predict the average number of trees per acre. How does your
A/B, C, D answer compare with the actual mean number, 48.4?
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Math on the Spot Videos Check students’ answers. They may not be very close to the
actual mean because the sample was so small.
C Compare your answer to B with several of your classmates’ answers. Do they vary
a lot? Is it likely that you can make a valid prediction about the average number of
trees per acre? Explain.
Check students’ answers.
325 Lesson 10.3 LEVELED QUESTIONS: AL Approaching Level | OL On Level | BL Beyond Level
EXPLORE ACTIVITY 2 (cont’d)
Reflect 4 Elaborate
4. Communicate Mathematical Ideas Suppose that you use the method
in A to collect a random sample of 25 acres. Do you think any resulting Talk About It
prediction would be more or less reliable than your original one? Explain.
Sample answer: More reliable; the larger sample should be Summarize the Lesson
Ask: Compare and contrast generating a
more representative of the population.
random sample using a calculator, and
5. Multiple Representations How could you use technology to select the generating a random sample by performing an
acres for your sample? experiment. With both methods, it is important to
Number the acres in the grid from 1 to 100. Use the formula randInt (1, 100) select a large enough sample to accurately
to generate numbers. Sample the acres with those numbers. represent the population. When generating a
random sample by performing an experiment, it is
important to make sure the experiment involves
random selection.
Guided Practice Guided Practice
A manufacturer gets a shipment of 600 batteries of which 50 are defective. Engage with the Whiteboard
The store manager wants to be able to test random samples in future
shipments. She tests a random sample of 20 batteries in this shipment to For Exercises 2–3, have a volunteer generate
see whether a sample of that size produces a reasonable inference about a list of 20 random numbers and write them
the entire shipment. (Explore Activities 1 and 2) on the whiteboard. Have another student analyze
1. The manager selects a random sample using the formula the list. Is the sample reasonable in this case?
randInt ( 1 , 600 to generate ) 20 random numbers.
Avoid Common Errors
2. She lets numbers from 1 to 50 represent defective batteries, and
Exercise 2 Encourage students to go through the
51
to 600 represent working batteries. She generates this list: 120, list carefully and circle the numbers that represent
?
? ESSENTIAL QUESTION CHECK-IN
326 Unit 5
LESSON
Generating Random Samples LESSON
Generating Random Samples LESSON
Generating Random Samples
10-3 10-3 10-3
Reteach Reading Strategies: Read a Table Success for English Learners
When you are generating or reading about random samples, you will often
A random sample of equally-likely events can be generated with
find the details about the sampling and its results in a table. This lesson Problem 1
random-number programs on computers or by reading random
presents two different uses of tables for random sampling. How many free throws are made out of 10 attempts by each eighth-grade
numbers from random-number tables in mathematics textbooks that
are used in the study of statistics and probability. Random Sampling Results physical education class team?
In your math class, random samples can be modeled using coins or This type of table simply presents the sampling categories and the results “Good” free throws by eighth-grade teams:
number cubes. For example, consider the random sample that consists of a random sampling activity.
of the sum of the numbers on two number cubes. 5 1 10 9 5 1 9
Rose bushes, 1st sample 24 9 9 4 8 8 9 1
Example 1 Solution Rose bushes, 2nd sample 15 7 10 7 9 7 4 1
Generate 10 random samples of the sum Rolling the number cubes gives these Rose bushes, 3rd sample 20 4 1 5 6 2 4 3
of the numbers on the faces of two number random samples:
Rose bushes, 4th sample 11 4 6 6 5 4 7 2
cubes. 2, 6, 6, 4, 3, 11, 11, 8, 7, and 10
Rose bushes, 5th sample 23 6 3 9 9 5 4 2
Example 2 Solution Random Sampling Grid
What are the different possible outcomes from List the outcomes as ordered pairs: The random sampling grid is used as a means of generating random
rolling the two number cubes in Example 1? (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), samples from a population. This grid shows a professional golfer’s scores
Write the outcomes as sums. (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6), Label the teams
on each hole after playing 36 holes or two rounds of golf. A random Find 3 random samples. from 1 to 42 on slips
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6),
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),
sample of the golfer’s scores on each hole can be estimated by taking
a sample of the holes using a pair of number cubes.
First round: Second round
How?
Calculator? Number
cubes? Spinners?
of paper.
1st row: 1 7, 2nd
row: 8 14, etc.
Personal Math Trainer
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)
Then, write the sums of the ordered pairs:
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,
9, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 7, 8, 9,
4
4
3
4
5
5
3
3
3
3
2
4
4
3
3
4
4
2
5
3
3
4
3
3
Results of drawing three of the slips of paper: Teams 20, 29, and 12
Daily Intervention
5 6 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 3
Example 3
10, 11, and 12
Solution
Sample scores per round: 3, 5, 4 (first round); 4, 2, 5 (second round)
Free throws by team in the samples:
Team 20 4 goals 10.3 Homework
Answer the questions. Team 29 4 goals
How do the frequency of the outcomes of In Example 1, there is one each of 2, 3, 4, 7, 1. A farmer expects to harvest 600 apricots 2. The table shows the number of female
8, and 10, two 6’s, and two 11’s. In Example Team 12 8 goals
the 10 random samples in Example 1 per tree this growing season. The table beagle puppies in 18 litters. A number
compare with the frequency of their sums in 3, there is one 2, two 3’s, three 4’s, four 5’s, 1. How many teams got 4 goals? 2. How many teams got 8 goals?
shows the results of three sample pickings. cube is rolled three times to give samples
Example 2? five 6’s, six 7’s, five 8’s, four 9’s, three 10’s, Will the farmer get the yield he wants? of 1, 5, and 3 female puppies. Are these
two 11’s, and one 12. ________________________________________ ________________________________________
representative samples? Explain.
1 2 4 5 3 2 3. What number of goals appears most? 4. What number of goals appears least?
Apricots, 1st sample 559
Answer the questions about the examples.
1. How do the random samples compare
with the predicted number of outcomes?
2. How do you think the outcomes in 100
random samples would compare with
Apricots, 2nd sample
Apricots, 3rd sample
590
578
2
2
1
2
5
3
1
4
4
1
2
3
________________________________________ ________________________________________ Pages shown are from
________________________________________
the expected results?
________________________________________
________________________________________ ________________________________________ Differentiated Instruction.
________________________________________ ________________________________________
Original content Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Additions and changes to the original content are the responsibility of the instructor. Original content Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Additions and changes to the original content are the responsibility of the instructor. Original content Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Additions and changes to the original content are the responsibility of the instructor.
Also available online.
235 235
236
236
237 237
COMMON
CORE 7.SP.2 Maureen owns three bagel shops. Each shop sells 500 bagels per day.
Maureen asks her store managers to use a random sample to see how many
whole-wheat bagels are sold at each store each day. The results are shown
Pressed for Time in the table. Use the table for 5–7.
BL Beyond Level 5–9, 10 5. If you assume the samples are representative, how many whole-wheat
bagels might you infer are sold at each store?
For Below Level students, assign Personal Math Shop A sells 100; Shop B sells 115; Shop C sells 140.
Trainer, Daily Intervention 10.3 Homework.
6. Rank the samples for the shops in terms of how representative they are
COMMON likely to be. Explain your rankings.
CORE Mathematical Practices Exercises
From most to least likely: B, A, C; Shop B’s sample would be the
MP.2 Reasoning 11
most representative because it contained the most bagels.
MP.3 Logic 5–7, 12
7. Which sample or samples should Maureen use to tell her managers how
MP.4 Modeling 8–10 many whole-wheat bagels to make each day? Explain.
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Shop A or Shop B; Both samples are large enough to
Focus on Higher Order Thinking
produce a reasonably valid inference. Shop C’s sample is
Depth of Knowledge Exercises too small.
2 Skills/Concepts 5–9
8. In a shipment of 1,000 T-shirts, 75 do not meet quality standards. The table
3 Strategic Thinking 10–12 below simulates a manager’s random sample of 20 T-shirts to inspect. For
the simulation, the integers 1 to 75 represent the below-standard shirts.
In the sample, how many of the shirts are below quality standards? 2
If someone used the sample to predict the number of below standard
shirts in the shipment, how far off would the prediction be?
The prediction would be that 100 of the shirts are below-
standard. That is 1_13 times the actual count of 75.
LESSON
Generating Random Samples LESSON
Generating Random Samples LESSON
Generating Random Samples
10-3 10-3 10-3
Practice and Problem Solving: A/B Practice and Problem Solving: C 3UDFWLFHDQG3UREOHP6ROYLQJ'
Use the description below to complete Exercises 1–3. Use the situation below to complete Exercises 1–3. Answer the questions below. Part of the first one is done for you.
In a set of 1,000 integers from 1 to 1,000, an integer chosen at random on A national conservation organization plans to award grants to fish 1. A rancher’s herd of 250 cattle grazes over a 40-acre
a single trial should be an integer from 1 to 25 about 25 out of every 1,000 hatcheries that produce populations of 1,000 or more individuals of pasture. He would like to find out how many cattle are Sample 1 4
trials, or one out of every 40 integers selected. endangered species during a seasonal breeding period. The number grazing on each acre of the pasture at any given time,
so he has some images of the pasture taken by the state Sample 2 1
of fish born at each of the hatcheries that enter the grant competition is
1. A sample of 5 integers selected is shown. Does this Trial 1 406 12,000 fish. Three hatcheries sampled broods of 240 new-born fish and department of agriculture’s aerial photography division. Here Sample 3 9
sample represent the general rule for picking an reported these results of the number of endangered species born. are the number of cattle found in three one-acre sections.
integer from 1 to 25 in the population of integers from Trial 2 734
a. What can the rancher conclude from these samples about how
1 to 1,000? Explain. Trial 3 44 Hatchery A Hatchery B Hatchery C many cattle graze on each acre of the 40-acre pasture?
________________________________________ Trial 4 340 Sample 1 3 Sample 1 10 Sample 1 4 Sample answer: There could be as few as one or as many as 9 cattle
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Trial 5 996 Sample 2 19
2. How many integers between 1 and 25 would you Sample 2 12 Sample 2 3 grazing on an acre, or an average of about 5 cattle grazing per acre.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
expect to appear in a sample of 80 trials? Explain. Sample 3 2 Sample 3 9 Sample 3 1
b. If the cattle were equally “spread out” across all of the 40 acres,
_____________________________________________________________________________________
50 integers was taken from the list of the integers from 1 to 1,000. _________________________________________________________________________________________
c. Why could the sample collected above differ from the number you
would expect on each acre of pasture land?
_________________________________________________________________________________________
t Standards-Based
_________________________________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________________
3. What would be a reasonable guess for the number of endangered
Use the description below to complete Exercises 4–5. individuals in the whole population of each hatchery? Show the _____________________________________________________________________________________
A manufacturer of flea collars for animals that weigh less than 5 kilograms calculations that support your answers.
Intervention 7.SP.2 injects the collars with 15 milligrams of a biocide that only acts on fleas.
The manufacturer will release a collar that has no less than 14 milligrams
and no more than 16 milligrams of insecticide. The following list shows the
_________________________________________________________________________________________
2. The manager of a warehouse would like to know how many errors are
made when a product’s serial number is read by a bar-code reader.
Six samples of 1,000 scans each are collected. The number of
Solve. scanning errors in each sample of 1,000 scans is recorded:
result of sampling 36 collars from an actual production run of 720 collars. 36, 14, 21, 39, 11, and 2 errors
4. The six-by-six grid shows 36 consecutive
17, 14, 14, 16, 14, 15, 15, 15, 16, 14, 16, 14, 15, 15, 15, 16, 13, 13, 30 17 20 24 23 30 a. Find the mean and the median number of errors per 1,000 scans
nightly samples of the sky and the number
13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 13, 17, 14, 15, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 14, 17, 14, 15 of galaxies that can be seen on each night 16 27 13 3 30 25 based on these six samples.
4. How many flea collars out of a production run of 720 collars would be with a small refracting telescope. 3 25 16 28 9 11
2 6 29 27 1 27 _____________________________________________________________________________________
acceptable to ship according to this sample? Explain your reasoning. What range of numbers would you give for
Differentiated Instruction. have too much biocide and could not be shipped? Explain your
reasoning. b. Find the mean and the median number of errors based on all 12
samples. How do your answers compare to your answers in part a?