The Wall Street Journal - 05.01.22
The Wall Street Journal - 05.01.22
00
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News GM in Sales
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Business & Finance
U.S. NEWS
Fed Maps Out Reducing Debt Portfolio
BY NICK TIMIRAOS for U.S. government debt. The discussion at their Jan. 25-26 polled by the New York Fed in Holding long-term Treasury
Bond Binge
coronavirus pandemic had set meeting. But he hinted that an October survey expected securities, in theory, provides
The Federal Reserve’s asset
Federal Reserve officials are off a dash for dollars that the central bank wasn’t pre- the Fed to start shrinking its more stimulus than holding
holdings have more than
beginning to map out how and threatened to trigger a global paring to follow the path taken holdings no sooner than 2024. short-term securities.
doubled since 2020.
when they could shrink their financial crisis. Shortly after- between 2014 and 2019. Shrinking the portfolio faster In May 2019, Fed officials
$8.76 trillion portfolio of Trea- ward, the Fed committed to Back then, the Fed kept the $10 trillion or sooner could come as a sur- were divided over how to
sury and mortgage securities, buying at least $120 billion a bondholdings steady for three prise to some investors. structure their portfolio. One
Dec. 29
which more than doubled amid month in Treasury and mort- years and then gradually began Fed governor Christopher group favored maintaining a
$8.76 trillion
efforts to stabilize the economy gage securities to provide ad- shrinking the portfolio, some- 8 Waller, who last month de- portfolio of Treasury bills,
over the past two years. ditional stimulus to the econ- times called a “balance sheet.” scribed inflation as “alarmingly notes and bonds in proportions
At their policy meeting last omy. The central bank began When the Fed began this pro- high,” said shrinking the asset that reflected the outstanding
month, officials agreed to wind reducing the pace of those cess in late 2017, the economy 6 portfolio faster would offer one Treasury market. This ap-
down their bond-purchase purchases this past November. was weaker than it is now: In- way to tighten policy without proach would have a neutral
Other assets
stimulus program more quickly The bond-buying programs flation was below the Fed’s 2% requiring even more aggressive effect on financial conditions.
amid growing concerns about stimulate the economy by target, and the unemployment 4 interest-rate increases. “I don’t Another camp preferred
high inflation, setting it on holding down long-term inter- rate was higher. see any reason to delay balance weighting their holdings to-
track to end in March. Officials est rates, encouraging consum- “The economy is so much Treasury securities sheet adjustment,” he said on ward Treasury bills and other
2
began discussing at that meet- ers and businesses to borrow stronger now, so much closer Dec. 17. “If we start doing some shorter-maturity holdings,
ing what should happen to the and spend. to full employment,” Mr. Pow- balance-sheet runoff by sum- which would allow the Fed to
bondholdings after that point, Once the Fed stops buying ell said on Dec. 15. “This is just 0
Mortgage securities mer, that’ll take some pressure dial up stimulus in a downturn
and some are pushing to start assets, it could keep the hold- a different situation, and those off. You don’t have to raise by quickly shifting back to lon-
2011 ’13 ’15 ’17 ’19 ’21
shrinking them sooner and ings steady by reinvesting the differences should inform the rates quite as much.” ger-dated holdings.
faster than they did after an proceeds of maturing securi- decisions we make about the Source: Federal Reserve In addition to choosing The Fed’s balance sheet to-
earlier asset-purchase program. ties into new ones, which balance sheet at this time.” when to start shrinking the day consists of many more
Markets would see that as a should have an economically Mr. Powell pointedly for some time and then per- portfolio, officials have to de- shorter-term Treasury securi-
form of tightening monetary neutral effect. Alternatively, stopped short of saying the Fed haps allow it to shrink.” cide how to do so. In October ties than it did in the previous
policy because it would signal the Fed could allow its hold- would follow the course it took Fed officials set the stage at 2017, the Fed began allowing a decade. If officials didn’t limit
the central bank’s desire to de- ings to shrink by allowing last decade, a shift from com- last month’s meeting for a se- small amount of holdings—$10 the potential runoff, the hold-
liberately slow the economy. bonds to mature, or run off. ments he made in July 2021. ries of interest-rate increases billion—to run off every quar- ings would shrink relatively
The Fed launched the cur- Fed Chairman Jerome Pow- Last summer, he told lawmak- that could begin in March, ter, with the amounts increas- quickly—by about $3 trillion
rent program in March and ell said last month that he and ers that the 2017-19 episode completing a major policy pivot ing by $10 billion every quar- over two years.
April 2020 when it bought his colleagues hadn’t made any provided a “reasonable starting amid worries about the poten- ter through 2018.
nearly $1.5 trillion in Trea- decisions on the matter and place—to think that we might tial for high inflation to persist. A related question centers Heard on the Street: Brace for
surys to stabilize the market were likely to continue their hold the balance sheet constant Most market participants on the composition of assets. central-bank divergence..... B12
U.S. Wins Ruling on Canada Dairy Tariffs tently elevated quits, includ-
ing retail, leisure and hospi-
tality, professional and
business services, and health-
“I had maybe two or three
just say that they’re moving
to Colorado or Arizona,” she
WASHINGTON—Canada will
“Everyone’s feeling the
quit rate,” said Diane Swonk,
Workers have been
be forced to end tariffs on U.S. chief economist of Grant quitting for higher
dairy products under a mile-
stone decision on Tuesday that
Thornton. “But there’s no
question that it’s harder for
wages, flexibility or
could allow American dairy smaller firms with lower- other opportunities.
farmers to increase sales to wage workers who are having
Canada by more than $200 mil- to compete with larger
lion annually. firms.”
The ruling came in the first- Ms. Swonk said larger said. “They just left with no
ever use of a new dispute reso- companies have more of an notice.
lution panel established by the ability to absorb the shock of “I think it was the stress. It
U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. quickly raising wages to at- was stressful because of the
The U.S. contended that Canada tract workers without having new normal. It wasn’t the
used a complex set of tariff- to pass costs to consumers, way we were doing business
rate quotas to reserve a share unlike smaller businesses. before because now there are
of the dairy market exclusively Workers have been quit- way more sanitation proto-
for Canadian dairy processors ting their jobs for higher cols,” she said.
in violation of the 2020 pact. wages, more flexibility, or for Ms. Kim said she also has
ALEX FILIPE/REUTERS
“Today’s decision is an im- better opportunities else- struggled filling vacancies for
portant victory for U.S. dairy where, economists said. In both the front desk and for
farmers,” said Jim Mulhern, the the healthcare industry, work- estheticians. “It’s just been
president of the National Milk ers are also quitting because really tough to find the right
Producers Federation. “The of continued pressures from people for the right open-
United States and Canada nego- The ruling by a trade-dispute panel could allow U.S. dairy farmers to increase Canada sales. the pandemic, Ms. Swonk ings,” she said.
tiated specific market-access said. The quits rate for the Workers have remained on
terms covering a wide variety gives credibility to a recent Canadian dairy had been come into full compliance with healthcare industry reached a the sidelines as the pandemic
of dairy products, but instead trade agreement at a time when omitted from 1994’s North its obligations on dairy.” seasonally adjusted 3% in No- continued. Some workers
of playing by those mutually the current administration has American Free Trade Agree- Canada’s dairy producers vember, a record high since have retired, while others
agreed upon rules, Canada ig- expressed doubts about the ment, the precursor to the have long fought against open- record-keeping began in faced child-care issues or
nored its commitments.” benefits of trade agreements USMCA. ing their market. The country 2000. were fearful of Covid-19 in
Canada didn’t commit to a and has not initiated any new “This historic win will help has around 11,000 commercial “Between burnout, fatigue, the workplace.
specific course of action, but negotiations,” said Jessica Was- eliminate unjustified trade re- farms that hold substantial and those who are sick, the The Omicron variant could
acknowledged the Feb. 3 dead- serman, a longtime Washington strictions on American dairy sway because they are located quitting just intensifies the dent the labor market if
line to resolve the matter. In a trade attorney and partner at products, and will ensure that in a politically important region: stress on our healthcare sys- school closures and child-care
joint statement, Canada’s min- WassermanRowe LLC. the U.S. dairy industry and its rural central Canada, especially tem as a whole, and that’s disruptions in particular limit
isters of trade and agriculture The Trump administration workers get the full benefit of French-speaking Quebec. probably due to the Delta people’s ability to work, Ms.
said they “continue to stand up filed an initial complaint about the USMCA to market and sell To protect those interests, wave. We’ve got a collision of Swonk said.
for its dairy industry, farmers Canada’s dairy quotas in De- U.S. products to Canadian con- Canada uses a quota system it Omicron, the Delta wave and Some K-12 schools have al-
and workers and the communi- cember 2020, leading to discus- sumers,” said U.S. Trade Rep- calls supply management. Sup- other illnesses,” Ms. Swonk ready changed plans for stu-
ties they support.” sions between the two nations resentative Katherine Tai, the porters say the system helps to said. dents’ returning from the hol-
If Canada doesn’t come into but no resolution. Biden administration’s top stabilize prices and domestic ca- U.S. job openings and iday break, either temporarily
compliance by the deadline, the Last May, the U.S. escalated trade negotiator. pacity of a nutritional necessity. workers’ willingness to leave starting school remotely or
U.S. could begin the process of that complaint and triggered Rep. Kevin Brady (R., Even with the restrictions in positions have remained ele- canceling classes.
initiating tariffs or other coun- the dispute resolution process Texas), the Republican leader place, Canada is typically the vated with an imbalance be- “The biggest thing to
termeasures. of the USMCA for the first of the House Ways and Means No. 2 market for U.S. dairy ex- tween openings and available watch is participation—if
Although Canada said as- time. The three-member dis- Committee, which has jurisdic- ports, after Mexico, so further workers. Omicron affects it,” Ms.
pects of the ruling were in its pute resolution panel was tion over trade deals, ap- opening of its market could be a In November, 6.9 million Swonk said. “That’s what I’m
favor, the panel’s report con- chaired by Elbio Rosselli, a dip- plauded the USTR. “I com- win for U.S. producers. Accord- people were unemployed but really worried about as we
tained only one ultimate find- lomat from Uruguay, under mend USTR for using USMCA’s ing to the International Trade said they want work, meaning get into January.”
ing—that Canada’s practices USMCA rules to ensure that new enforcement mechanism Commission, the USMCA—if
were inconsistent with its obli- panelists are independent and to achieve this important re- implemented as negotiated— Four and a half million employees quit their jobs in November as
gations in the trade deal. have expertise in international sult,” he said. “Canada must would boost U.S. dairy exports the quits rate matched its record level last seen in September.
“This is a big deal because it law and trade treaties. now do the right thing and to Canada by $227 million.
Monthly U.S. quits rate* U.S. job openings, monthly
Nov. 2021
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
(USPS 664-880) (Eastern Edition ISSN 0099-9660)
CORRECTIONS AMPLIFICATIONS 3.0%
3%
10 million
U.S. NEWS
Cases Soar
As Omicron
Takes Hold
BY ANTHONY DEBARROS Daily reported Covid-19
AND RHIANNON HOYLE cases in the U.S.
Jan. 3
1,000,000
More than one million new 1,082,549
Covid-19 infections were re- (includes backlog
ported in the U.S., a sign of of unreported cases
over the holidays)
the rapid spread of the Omi- 800,000
cron variant that public-health
experts said is only partially
captured by official data. 600,000
The U.S. reported a record 7-DAY MOVING
1.08 million Covid-19 infections AVERAGE
on Monday as most states 480,273
400,000
worked to clear backlogs after
pausing during the New Year’s
Prince
Wants
Abuse Case
Dismissed
PETER CIHELKA/THE FREE LANCE-STAR/ASSOCIATED PRESS
BY JAMES FANELLI
AND MAX COLCHESTER
U.S. NEWS
Spending Package
On Hold for Now
BY ANDREW DUEHREN “I’ve never turned down
talks with anybody, I really ha-
WAS H I N GT O N — S e n a te ven’t,” he said, while adding
Democrats put the party’s mar- he wasn’t participating in any
quee economic package on ice, talks on the bill. “There is no
shifting their attention to pass- negotiations going on at this
ing elections legislation as they time,” he said.
consider how to overhaul the A White House official said
roughly $2 trillion education, the Biden administration was
healthcare and climate bill. in touch with several lawmak-
Sen. Joe Manchin (D., ers about a path forward on the
W.Va.), whose support Demo- bill, the Build Back Better Act.
crats need to advance the bill Senate Majority Leader
in the 50-50 Senate, last Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said
month said he was opposed to Tuesday that he touched on
the package, scuttling Demo- Build Back Better in discus-
crats’ hopes of quickly passing sions with Mr. Manchin over
SHAWN THEW/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK
makers on a recovering U.S. ket share from Detroit, accord- even though the chip shortage vehicle pricing is contributing
car market and cut parts and ing to company reports and is expected gradually to ease in to strong new-car prices, J.D.
production orders less sharply analyst forecasts. the coming months. Auto exec- Power said, because buyers
than rivals, making it better Hyundai Motor Co. of South utives have said it could take trading in old vehicles have
prepared for an eventual surge Korea, for the second year in a the entire year to substantially more money to work with.
in consumer demand. row, notched sizable share replenish dealership invento- The uneven disruption to
While Toyota executives said gains, selling 738,081 vehicles ries, which likely would curtail production schedules jumbled
they were successful in navigat- in 2021 and boosting sales by sales despite what dealers said the pecking order among auto
ing some of last year’s supply- about 19% over the prior year, The Japanese car maker benefited from stockpiling computer is strong underlying demand. makers in 2021. While supply-
chain constraints, they don’t the company said Tuesday. chips ahead of global supply disruptions. A plant in Argentina. Edmunds.com expects U.S. chain problems have affected
view the lead over GM as a per- Mazda Motor Corp. and Honda sales to reach 15.2 million ve- all auto makers, GM and Ford
manent shift in the industry’s Motor Co. also posted stron- in the U.S. last year, according after the latest sales results hicles in 2022, up slightly were among the hardest-hit,
closely watched sales rankings. ger-than-average sales last to a forecast from research and news that Ford Motor Co. from the expected final num- each having scrapped over
“To be clear, this is not our year, company results show. firm J.D. Power. That total plans to double production of bers last year. Analysts at RBC 600,000 planned vehicles in
goal, nor do we see it as sus- Research firm Cox Automo- would be up slightly from its new all-electric truck, after Capital are more bullish, peg- North America, according to
tainable,” said Jack Hollis, tive estimates Tesla’s U.S. 2020, when the onset of the a rise in reservations. ging the total at about 15.8 AutoForecast Solutions LLC.
Toyota’s senior vice president sales jumped 61% over the Covid-19 pandemic hurt car Ford’s stock closed nearly million vehicles, with an ex- Stellantis NV, which owns
of operations in North Amer- prior year, achieving the big- sales for part of that year. But 12% higher. GM’s stock rose pected surge later in the year. Jeep, Ram and other brands,
ica. He added that the com- gest percentage gain among it is a sharp drop from the 7.5%, while Toyota’s American Toyota executives said they was also affected by the chip
pany doesn’t expect to use its auto makers. Tesla doesn’t mark of 17 million vehicles that depositary receipts hit a new expected U.S. auto sales to crisis. It reported total U.S.
dethroning of GM last year in break out U.S. sales. the industry had eclipsed for high of $199.19, up nearly 7%. grow to about 16.5 million ve- sales were down 2% in 2021.
its advertising. Overall, auto makers sold five straight years before that. U.S. vehicle sales set a blis- hicles this year, lifted by his- —Ben Foldy
A GM spokesman declined just shy of 15 million vehicles Auto stocks rallied Tuesday tering pace last spring as car torically low interest rates and contributed to this article.
U.S. NEWS
U.S. WATCH
TEXAS at crossings that will allow po-
lice to ticket drivers who go
State Sues U.S. Over around guardrails.
National Guard Rule —Associated Press
Your
to force Texas Guardsmen to re- their effort to prevent it from
ceive vaccines. “Unless President spreading, but officials warned
Biden federalizes the Texas Na- Tuesday that gusty winds ex-
tional Guard…he is not your com- pected ahead of a snowstorm
mander-in-chief,” the letter said. could cause flare-ups in the burn
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd zone between Denver and Boulder.
J. Austin III ordered in August About 200 firefighters were
vision
that all service members be vac- working to douse smoldering
cinated for Covid-19. spots in damaged buildings and
The lawsuit argues that un- bone dry vegetation that serves
less the state forces are explic- as tinder to fan wildfire flames as
itly called into service of the the gusty winds descended from
country, they remain under Mr. the Rocky Mountains.
Abbott’s control. The fire that started last
has a
The White House referred a Thursday was finally fully con-
request for comment to the De- tained on Tuesday, said David
fense Department. A spokesper- Boyd, spokesman for an incident
son for the Defense Department management team in charge of
didn’t provide comment on Mr. the fire’s suppression in Boulder
Abbott’s suit. County. The blaze burned 9.4
—Elizabeth Findell square miles in suburban areas
new home
and grassland northwest of Den-
FLORIDA ver.
Two people were still missing
Train Kills Pedestrian, on Tuesday. Crews sifted the loca-
Fifth Since Reopening tions where they lived by hand,
using small tools in their search
A Brightline higher-speed train for any remains.
fatally struck a pedestrian who —Associated Press
walked into its path Tuesday, the
fifth death involving the Florida CHICAGO
railroad since it recently resumed
operations after being shut down Rep. Rush Won’t
It’s a new era in Puerto Rico.
because of the pandemic. Seek Re-Election
Boynton Beach police said
the pedestrian was struck about Democratic Rep. Bobby Rush We have emerged as a business & investment hotspot,
7:50 a.m. of Illinois formally announced and the world is seeing us in a new light.
The recent deaths have all oc- Tuesday that wouldn’t seek a 16th
curred in the past month. None term in the U.S. House. You see opportunities where others cannot. Visionaries
of the 52 earlier deaths involving The decision from the former like you will spark new transformations. You bring change
Brightline have been blamed on Black Panther, who first won elec- to the world. Now is the time to do it from Puerto Rico,
its equipment or crews. tion in 1992, is creating a flurry of where nearly 18,000 STEM graduates hit the workforce
Investigations showed most interest among potential candi- each year. Plus, we have a highly skilled bilingual
victims were either suicidal, in- dates for the heavily Democratic workforce, an entrepreneur-friendly ecosystem, smart tax
toxicated, mentally ill or had district, which is based on the incentives, and the highest concentration of bioscience &
gone around barriers at an inter- South Side of Chicago. Under medical device industry professionals in the United States.
section to beat the trains, which newly approved congressional
travel up to 79 mph through maps, the district will stretch into For these and many other reasons, 12 of the world’s top
densely populated areas be- suburban and rural areas located 20 pharmaceutical companies already have operations
tween Miami and West Palm south and southwest of the city. on-island. With billions in federal investment and new
Beach. Mr. Rush is the 24th House advancements in infrastructure — all within U.S. legal and
Brightline officials didn't re- Democrat to announce they won’t financial frameworks — the time to invest in Puerto Rico
turn a call and email Tuesday run for re-election this year. Eleven is now.
seeking comment. The company House Republicans have said they
has installed infrared detectors won’t seek re-election this fall. For those leading the way forward, our doors are open.
that will warn engineers if any- Mr. Rush is the only person to
one is lurking near the tracks so win an election over former Presi-
they can slow down or stop. dent Barack Obama, whom he de- Game-Changers, welcome home.
Brightline has added more fenc- feated in a 2000 congressional
ing and landscaping to make primary when Mr. Obama was an
Visit investpr.org
track access more difficult and is Illinois state senator.
also installing red-light cameras —Associated Press
HAVEN DALEY/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Karen England Horan and son Robert on Tuesday looked over what
remained of her home after it was hit by a wildfire in Louisville, Colo.
A6 | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 * ***** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
WORLD NEWS
More Eyes Follow Russia’s Ukraine Steps
Amateur sleuths and
private analysts track U.S. Ambassador
military moves through Aims to De-Escalate
open-source intelligence
MOSCOW—The U.S. heads
BY WARREN P. STROBEL into talks with Russia next
AND MICHAEL R. GORDON week determined to defend
its allies and partners in de-
WA S H I N G T O N — R u s s i a terring Moscow from any fur-
faces a very 21st-century chal- ther incursion into Ukraine,
lenge as it piles up forces near but is also ready to engage in
Ukraine’s border: Much of its dialogue and diplomacy,
military operation is being America’s top diplomat in
carried out in plain sight. Russia said Tuesday.
Taking on a role once re- The massing of tens of
served for spies, amateur thousands of Russian troops
sleuths and analysts with pri- on the border with Ukraine
vate and nongovernmental or- has rattled Western officials,
ganizations are tracking Russia’s while demands from Russian
buildup, mining commercial sat- President Vladimir Putin to
ellite images, social-media posts redefine the security architec-
and flight-tracking data to com- ture of Europe, including issu-
pile a strikingly precise picture ing sweeping new proposals
of Moscow’s deployments—and to limit the reach of the
of the U.S. military’s efforts to North Atlantic Treaty Organi-
monitor them. zation, have been met with
Satellite photos taken by determination from the U.S.
commercial satellite and imag- and its allies to strengthen
ing company Maxar Technolo- the alliance.
gies Inc., for example, have “My hope is that we will
MAXAR
WORLD WATCH
NORTH KOREA called military instability on the showed riot police firing tear gas between advocates for indige-
Korean Peninsula. grenades at a throng of demon- nous children and the Canadian
Regime Fires Missile Japanese Prime Minister Fu- strators in the capital, Nur-Sultan. government. It represents one of
In First Test of Year mio Kishida called the latest It was the third day of pro- the largest financial awards a
launch “very regrettable,” pointing tests, which began in cities in the developed nation has said it
North Korea fired a suspected to Pyongyang’s repeated testing west and then spread through the would pay members of its indig-
ballistic missile into waters off of missiles since last year. sprawling Central Asian country, enous community.
its east coast on Wednesday, South Korea is closely moni- where liquefied gas is widely used The Canadian Human Rights
PAVEL MIKHEYEV/REUTERS
South Korean and Japanese au- toring the situation and main- for cooking and heating. Tribunal ruled in 2016 the federal
thorities said, the first such test taining its defense posture, —Associated Press government discriminated against
in the new year. Seoul’s military said. indigenous children and their
The missile was launched Last year, North Korea said it CANADA families because it spent less on
around 8:10 a.m. local time, be- successfully tested a new type of child-welfare services for indige-
fore splashing into the waters submarine-launched ballistic mis- Government Settles nous communities relative to
between Korea and Japan, South sile and a train-launched weapon, Indigenous Suit nonindigenous children. The un-
Korea’s military said. It flew which it described as a hyper- A police car burns in Almaty, one of many cities where protests derfunding prompted officials to
about 310 miles and landed out- sonic warhead. Pyongyang carried took place after the price of liquefied gas doubled in Kazakhstan. Canada said it reached a ten- remove indigenous children from
side of Japan’s exclusive eco- out a series of missile launches tative agreement with indige- their homes and place them into
nomic zone, officials in Tokyo last year, even though ballistic KAZAKHSTAN Kazakhstan’s largest city and nous advocates and communi- state care, the plaintiffs argued.
said. The flight path suggests missile launches are banned un- held protests on Tuesday in ties to pay roughly $15 billion in The tribunal said the govern-
North Korea launched a short- der United Nations sanctions. Protesters, Police about a dozen other cities. compensation to indigenous chil- ment’s policies likely led to un-
range ballistic missile. The latest test comes as Clash in Largest City Local news reports said police dren placed in a child-welfare necessary out-of-home care for
The launch comes days after North Korea has ignored calls dispersed a demonstration of system that a quasi-judicial body as many as 54,000 children
North Korean leader Kim Jong from the U.S. and South Korea Demonstrators denouncing about 1,000 people in Almaty ruled violated human rights. since 2006 and caused “trauma
Un vowed to pursue high-tech to engage in talks. the doubling of prices for lique- and that some demonstrators The development Tuesday and harm to the highest degree.”
weapons to counter what he —Dasl Yoon fied gas clashed with police in were detained. Reports also caps a nearly 16-year legal battle —Paul Vieira
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. * * * * Wednesday, January 5, 2022 | A7
WORLD NEWS
China’s northwest, which has suspect in the case to be ar- the president.
confirmed 1,758 total infections rested by U.S. officials and In an affidavit supporting a
since Dec. 9, a high number for brought before an American complaint unsealed Tuesday,
China. Most of the cases have court. the U.S. said Mr. Palacios was
been mild, officials said. No Mario Antonio Palacios was interviewed by American law-
deaths related to Covid-19 have flown by U.S. officials to Mi- enforcement officials in Octo-
been reported anywhere in ami and appeared Tuesday in ber in Jamaica, where he had
China in the past 11 months. a federal courtroom, the Jus- fled from Haiti. In that inter-
Nonetheless, Covid-19 control tice Department said. He faces view, according to the affida-
seems to trump all other priori- charges of conspiracy to com- vit, Mr. Palacios said a group
ties in Xi’an, which is following A sanitation worker swept a road in Xi’an last month amid a Covid shutdown in the city of 13 million. mit murder or kidnapping out- of some 20 former Colombian
a playbook similar to the one side the U.S. and providing soldiers had trained for sev-
deployed two years ago in Wu- ing lockdowns and mandatory When Xi’an first locked down, that the city was housing material support resulting in eral weeks to serve an arrest
han, the first Covid-19 epicenter. quarantines, against the benefit officials said the recent wave of nearly 40,000 people in 387 death. American authorities warrant on Mr. Moïse and “ex-
Like in Wuhan in early 2020, of keeping the case count low, infections had been caused by quarantine centers. have jurisdiction because Hai- tract” him from Haiti by plane
no one is allowed to enter or in what Beijing calls a zero-tol- the Delta variant. That is still Almost all the new cases tian investigators assert the around June 18 in what would
leave Xi’an. Most of the 13 mil- erance Covid-19 strategy. the case, a national health offi- have been detected among quar- plot was partly planned and fi- have essentially been a kid-
lion residents can leave their One month away from the cial told state media Tuesday. antined residents. The city can nanced in Florida, with a Mi- napping.
homes only for Covid testing. 2022 Winter Olympics, the Residents have circulated a ease restrictions only after com- ami-area security company That plan was aborted after
Few vehicles are allowed in the stakes are high for Beijing. document purporting to show munity spread, meaning infec- providing weapons and train- the alleged conspirators
streets except for those trans- The quick spread of the that local officials are prepar- tions detected outside quaran- ing to the alleged assassins. couldn’t find a plane, the affi-
porting essential workers and Omicron variant could severely ing to move anyone deemed to tine centers, is down to zero, a His arrest provides the Fed- davit said.
supplies, and many supermar- complicate virus-control sce- have been near an infected Xi’an health official told the Xin- eral Bureau of Investigation, Mr. Palacios told the U.S.
kets and hospitals are closed. narios at the Games, which co- person—a vague definition hua News Agency on Tuesday. which is carrying out an inves- officials that by July 6, the day
The online complaints of tens incide with the Lunar New that can mean someone in the China tallies both symptom- tigation in Florida and has before the assassination, he
of thousands of stranded resi- Year, when millions are ex- same apartment complex— atic and asymptomatic cases been aiding Haitian police had been informed by a num-
dents show how local officials pected to travel. into quarantine centers out- but includes only the former since the July 7 killing in Port- ber of the Colombians that the
must weigh the costs of ex- Omicron has yet to make side the city. in its official count of con- au-Prince, with an essential plan was now to kill Mr.
treme restrictions, such as roll- significant inroads in China. Xi’an officials said Monday firmed cases. suspect and witness in a crime Moïse, the affidavit said.
that has shaken the country. —José de Córdoba
The 43-year-old Mr. Pala- contributed to this article.
DANIEL PONTET/REUTERS
bor, saying previous, private at- Anta last year said it would sue in relation to forced labor.” legations lies, saying it set up
tempts to engage the organiza- keep using cotton from Xinji- It said it works with suppliers vocational camps to improve
tion weren’t taken seriously. ang, where human-rights to raise awareness of its crite- livelihoods and combat reli-
The Coalition to End Forced groups and governments, in- ria for sustainable sourcing, gious extremism.
Labor in the Uyghur Region said cluding the U.S., allege that Chi- while carrying out “targeted The Uyghur-focused human-
Tuesday that the Switzerland- nese authorities are employing due diligence.” rights group accused the IOC of
based IOC hasn’t offered credible forced labor among the region’s The U.S. government says rebuffing its attempts to dis- Mario Antonio Palacios appears in court in Miami, where he faces
evidence that Olympic-branded mostly Muslim minorities. Chinese authorities are com- cuss forced-labor concerns. charges of conspiracy to commit murder or kidnapping.
Neumann
Snaps Up
Apartments
MICHAEL KOVAC/GETTY IMAGES FOR WEWORK
FROM TOP: JESSICA RINALDI/REUTERS; EVE EDELHEIT FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
much of a factor as the compli- that lets the FDA clear drugs
cated scientific questions. With for serious diseases before
Aduhelm, both played a role. their medical benefits are fully
“All these inconsistencies proven. Five of the FDA offi-
created one wave of criticism cials supported approving the
after another—plus Biogen drug on the condition that
came up with this ridiculous Biogen do another trial, FDA
price that added even more fuel documents show. The head of
to the fire,” said Yaning Wang, Mr. Massie’s biostatistics of-
who as an FDA official worked fice voted against approval of
on Aduhelm’s approval and is a any kind, while a seventh offi-
supporter of the approval. He is cial abstained.
now chief executive of a Chi-
nese biotech company.
An FDA spokeswoman said Fast-track approval
the agency conducted a thor- On June 7, 2021, the FDA
ough review of Aduhelm’s data approved Aduhelm. Biogen’s
and concluded it warranted stock closed at $395.85 that
approval for patient use day, up 38% from the previous
“while holding the company closing price, and reached a
accountable for conducting an 52-week closing high of
additional study” to confirm $414.71 on June 10.
that the drug works. If the A patient with a bag containing an Aduhelm infusion, above; Michele Hall, below, began Aduhelm treatment last month. Harvard Professor of Medi-
study fails, the FDA can pull cine Aaron Kesselheim, who
Aduhelm from the market. where competition was inten- He also challenged the com- was on the outside-adviser
A Biogen spokeswoman said sifying. Encouraging results pany’s contention that the committee and resigned from
the company realized with from a small early-stage trial failed trial was a statistical it to protest the approval, in
hindsight that it made mis- on March 20, 2015, sent Bio- fluke, said the person involved his resignation letter called it
takes in stopping the trials gen’s shares up 10% that day in the process, and he argued “probably the worst drug ap-
early but that it did what it to a price that still stands as that the data couldn’t be inter- proval decision in recent U.S.
thought was right for patients its closing record. preted after the trials had history.” Dr. Kesselheim in an
at the time. Biogen CEO Michel The early results left Biogen been stopped for futility. email said he objected to the
Vounatsos in July told ana- officials so confident in the In one meeting, Dr. Dunn approval because Aduhelm
lysts: “Aduhelm was approved drug’s success that they cut him off, saying he was “has no clear evidence of effi-
appropriately on very solid skipped doing midstage trials, straying from the “core issue” cacy plus the very real risk of
grounds and represented the called Phase 2 trials, and pro- of understanding the data, potentially serious harms” and
right thing to do for patients.” ceeded directly in August and said the person. Dr. Dunn and because the FDA’s “process
Some doctors say that they September 2015 to launching Mr. Massie didn’t respond to was problematic due to the
have encountered hesitancy two Phase 3 trials—large clini- requests for comment, and the last-minute switch to acceler-
among some patients to take cal trials testing a drug’s FDA declined to make them ated approval.”
the drug but that others are safety and effectiveness that available for interviews. The FDA said in a written
willing to try it. Aduhelm is “a are typically needed to win Mr. Massie’s disagreement statement that “given the un-
risk that I would take,” said FDA approval. with Biogen’s analysis remained met needs for patients with
Michele Hall, a 54-year-old for- Then, a hitch: When Biogen outstanding in the months that Alzheimer’s disease—a seri-
mer lawyer who was diag- analyzed trial data reflecting followed, and he stopped at- ous, progressive, and ulti-
nosed with Alzheimer’s in patients’ cognitive conditions tending working group meet- mately fatal disease—the
2020 and started Aduhelm in early 2019, it indicated the ings with Biogen halfway Agency chose to use the accel-
treatment in late December. drug wasn’t likely to be through the process. Meeting erated approval pathway to al-
She is willing to try the drug, proven effective. minutes the FDA later pub- low earlier access to patients.”
hoping it will help slow her de- By evaluating data mid- lished suggest the questions Biogen and the FDA say
cline, even if only slightly, she stream in approval-seeking tri- Mr. Massie had raised about Aduhelm’s most serious poten-
said. “I’ll do whatever it takes als, companies can try to pre- the Biogen analysis had been tial side effect—swelling or
to give myself more time.” dict whether a drug will addressed by February 2020 small bleeds in the brain—typ-
Other drugs help alleviate succeed if the trial continues. according to FDA documents. ically doesn’t cause symptoms
only some of the symptoms of Stopping trials early for “futil- in patients and can be safely
Alzheimer’s. Researchers hope ity,” in industry parlance, can in hindsight, was based on with industry to help foster managed by regularly monitor-
to show Aduhelm can slow the save millions of dollars and putting patients at the fore- drug development…especially ‘Unscientific’ ing patients with MRI scans.
progressive brain deteriora- prevent patients from invest- front—as it always should be. in areas where there is a signif- Mr. Massie’s objections be- As of October, Biogen said,
tion that comes with Alzhei- ing hope on an ineffective Cost was not considered in de- icant need for treatments for came public when an FDA out- only about 120 U.S. medical fa-
mer’s, though it will be years drug. termining futility.” devastating diseases.” A Biogen side advisory committee con- cilities had administered
before it can be definitively In a March 2019 meeting, Only in the weeks after the executive said the working vened a hearing on Nov. 6, Aduhelm to patients out of the
tested in a new clinical trial. Biogen executives on a small trials stopped did Biogen sci- group with the FDA was cre- 2020, to advise on whether to more than 900 sites that the
“Is Aduhelm great? No,” “senior decision team,” as the entists complete a preliminary ated because the Aduhelm data approve Aduhelm. In a re- company says were prepared
said Marwan Sabbagh, a neu- company called it, concluded analysis of the overrunning needed to be systematically an- corded presentation at the to administer the drug when it
rologist at the Barrow Neuro- that the trials were doomed. data and recognize their mis- alyzed, requiring frequent hearing, Mr. Massie called Bio- was approved in June, leading
logical Institute in Phoenix Biogen pulled the plug and take, the Biogen spokeswoman meetings to understand the gen’s data analysis “unscien- to $300,000 in revenue in the
and a consultant for Biogen asked researchers around the said. The data seemed to show conflicting data results. tific, statistically inappropriate third quarter, far short of the
and other drugmakers. “It’s world to shut down trials. It that one of the trials would Biogen executives saw Dr. and misleading,” and recom- $12 million analysts projected.
better than the status quo.” told more than 3,000 Alzhei- have produced positive re- Dunn as an ally who had been mended against approval. Some hospitals have said
Medicare, which covers the mer’s patients who had volun- sults, despite the likelihood of supportive of Biogen’s early His FDA colleague Dr. Dunn, they won’t administer
majority of Alzheimer’s pa- teered that they would no lon- a negative outcome in the sec- development of Aduhelm and in contrast, pointed to what he Aduhelm to patients because
tients expected to take ger receive treatment. Biogen ond trial. Initially, Biogen had other potential Alzheimer’s said were “robust” and “excep- of uncertainty over the drug’s
Aduhelm, is scheduled to make stock fell by nearly 30% the analyzed combined data from drugs, said a person familiar tionally persuasive” trial data effectiveness and concerns
a preliminary decision in Jan- day of the announcement. both trials. with the company. supporting Aduhelm’s ap- about its potential side effects.
uary as to whether it will rou- Biogen executives made er- In mid-April, Biogen proval. The outside advisers Raymond James Financial
tinely pay for the drug and rors in shutting down the tri- launched an effort to resurrect sided with Mr. Massie in the Inc. analyst Steven Seedhouse
others like it, and to issue a fi- als. The trial plan called for an- the drug with the FDA. hearing, unanimously rejecting called Aduhelm “potentially the
nal coverage decision in April. alyzing data after half of Companies rarely pursue
‘Probably the worst the drug’s approval. worst drug launch of all time”
Medicaid, the joint state-fed- patients completed the study approval based on trials halted drug approval Dr. Wang, then director of in terms of sales in an Oct. 20
eral health insurance program treatment in late December for futility. Typically, a com- the FDA’s Division of Pharma- research note to clients.
for the poor, is required to 2018. By the time Biogen com- pany abandons the drug or,
decision in recent cometrics, said he dug into the The Biogen spokeswoman
cover Aduhelm, but states are pleted the analysis in March occasionally, tests it in differ- U.S. history.’ data and questions raised by said: “We continue to see a high
allowed to create special eligi- 2019, three more months of ad- ent patients or diseases. the advisory committee that level of patient interest and we
bility criteria for which pa- ditional data were available— Biogen officials braced for weren’t answered. These in- are making steady progress in
tients are allowed to receive it. but the decision team didn’t FDA questions about why it cluded why the FDA hadn’t the launch of Aduhelm.”
The Department of Veterans scrutinize the additional data didn’t look at overrunning Biogen and FDA officials— considered Biogen’s failed trial Biogen’s $56,000 launch
Affairs and some private in- before the company halted the data before ending the trials including Dr. Dunn, agency cli- as a verdict on the drug’s ef- price, announced June 7, was
surers, including Cigna Corp., trials, Biogen has said. and why it was now focusing nicians and Tristan Massie, an fectiveness. Dr. Wang, who left as much as 19 times as great
have said they won’t routinely A Biogen consultant in the on just the one positive trial, FDA statistician who spear- the FDA in September, said he as what would be considered a
cover Aduhelm. A VA spokes- summer of 2018 recommended the person involved in the headed the FDA statistical re- found Mr. Massie’s analysis fair price, according to an
woman said that the agency to senior Biogen statisticians process said. view—began meeting regularly contained data-entry errors analysis published in August
won’t make Aduhelm available that they consider all available Company executives met after the June meeting, accord- and methodological misjudg- by the Institute for Clinical
for general use, but that it trial data, according to a per- with FDA officials, including ing to FDA meeting minutes. ments, resulting in what he and Economic Review, a non-
would consider requests to use son involved in the process. Director of the Office of Neu- In a summer 2019 meeting, said were flawed conclusions profit research and advisory
the drug on a case-by-case ba- The consultant cautioned them roscience Billy Dunn, on June the working group discussed in Mr. Massie’s recorded pre- group that does cost-effective-
sis. A Cigna spokeswoman said that a plan to leave out consid- 14, 2019, FDA minutes show. whether Biogen could draw sentation at the hearing. ness analyses that insurers
that based on the recommen- eration of additional trial data FDA officials at the meeting firm conclusions about He said Mr. Massie’s analy- and drug companies use.
dation of its independent ad- after the cutoff date—and to created a working group of Aduhelm’s effectiveness be- sis didn’t emphasize average Biogen said the analysis un-
visers “and well-documented leave out certain data from pa- Biogen and FDA employees to cause of the difficulty in inter- changes in patients across Bio- derestimated the severity of
concerns regarding its safety tients in the trial before the sort through the clinical-trial preting incomplete trial data gen’s trials showing that a Alzheimer’s and the value of
and efficacy, Aduhelm is con- cutoff—would open up Biogen data to determine whether it from a prematurely halted slowing in subjects’ cognitive treatments to patients.
sidered unproven under Cigna to criticism and scrutiny, the could be used to support a trial, according to the person decline correlated with lower Criticism of Aduhelm’s
health plans.” person said. The statisticians possible submission by Biogen involved in the process. levels in their brains of amy- price and doubts over its ef-
didn’t heed the consultant’s ad- for approval. The joint group Mr. Massie, the FDA statis- loid. Dr. Wang said he told Mr. fectiveness drove down Biogen
vice, and it isn’t clear whether was unusual: The FDA typically tician, contested Biogen scien- Massie that he had found what shares in the months after ap-
High hopes the decision team or manage- maintains an arm’s-length re- tists’ analysis, arguing that he believed were errors in Mr. proval. Through Jan. 4, the
Aduhelm is a monoclonal an- ment considered the recom- lationship with drugmakers. there were inconsistencies in Massie’s analysis and offered stock had fallen 42% from its
tibody, a drug made from living mendation, the person said. The FDA spokeswoman said the data that made the posi- to jointly prepare a new statis- 2021 closing high on June 10.
cells that binds to a sticky pro- Biogen declined to com- the agency “often works closely tive trial’s results unreliable. tical analysis but that he never Aduhelm’s launch price
tein called amyloid, which some ment on past discussions with made doctors and hospitals
scientists think is a cause of its consultants but said it fol- even more reluctant to pre-
Alzheimer’s. The drug attracts lowed its pre-established sta- scribe Aduhelm, said Ronald C.
other cells to come in and clear tistical-analysis plan. Petersen, a Biogen consultant
the amyloid from the brain. It The decision not to consider and director of the Mayo
is modeled on antibodies dis- the three months of additional Clinic Alzheimer’s Disease Re-
covered by researchers at Swiss data was a misstep, said some search Center. Dr. Petersen
biotech firm Neurimmune AG in clinical-trial experts and statis- said the December price cut
blood samples taken from older ticians. “Additional data after a could make Aduhelm more af-
people who hadn’t developed study stops is called ‘overrun- fordable for some patients, but
Alzheimer’s or who had very ning.’ We plan for it,” said Scott that wouldn’t alone create a
slow cognitive decline. It is in- Emerson, a professor emeritus groundswell of demand. The
DAVID A. WHITE/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Sabbaticals Are
A Power Move
In Burnout Era
BY KATHERINE BINDLEY
L
ate in 2020 Joanna Miller
CLOCKWISE FROM TOP RIGHT: JOANNA MILLER; MARGARET TAMISIEA; JURAJ PAL
was overworked, grap-
pling with pandemic-in-
duced feelings of isola-
tion, and had just
finished moving after lis-
tening to construction near her
home office for eight months
straight.
She took two weeks off from
her job in human resources at the
cloud software company Asana
Inc. It didn’t help.
“When it was time to go back
to work, I realized that I was still
so exhausted,” said Ms. Miller, who
lives in Oakland, Calif.
Instead of joining the millions
of people who have left their jobs
recently, Ms. Miller, 35 years old,
took a paid six-week sabbatical.
Workers are putting in more
hours than ever nearly two years with his company from its Clockwise from left: Juraj Pal with
into the pandemic. They are in early days. Over time, Alexandra Pal and dog Simba on
many cases burned out and believe work had become his en- sabbatical in San Francisco; Joanna
a prolonged break is the best re- tire identity. Miller on her break in the
spite. Surprisingly, some companies “If you invited me for Maldives; Steve Dakin cycling in
agree. Employees who take sabbati- dinner and asked me who Crater Lake National Park, Oregon,
cals say they return to work ener- I am, I would talk about on his second sabbatical, in 2015.
gized and more productive. Manag- the company and if you
ers who are worried about asked me if I had hobbies,
retaining top talent and how the I’d say, ‘I don’t have hob- perk to work toward is another
Covid era is wearing on employees’ bies’ and I’d even feel way to attract and hang on to top
well-being find sabbaticals engen- good about it,” said Mr. talent, Ms. Merritt said.
der loyalty and greater creativity. Pal, 28. Anna Binder, head of people for
Sabbaticals still aren’t main- As the startup went Asana, says the key to making sure
through a reorganization one person’s sabbatical doesn’t be-
and a subsequent acquisi- come a burden for others is dis-
tion by Cisco Systems Inc., tributing the work among team
Sabbaticals can benefit Mr. Pal started to feel he members and identifying what
morale and spread was no longer a good projects can be put on hold.
match for the culture. He Steve Dakin, a director of engi-
knowledge and skills ended up in a conversa- neering with Adobe Inc., has taken
around the company. tion with the startup’s three sabbaticals across nearly
CEO at the time, Peter Ko- two decades of working for the
mornik, who suggested a software maker, where taking
real break. them is ingrained in the culture.
stream: 5% of companies offered “My first response was “If you don’t take it, people
them in 2019, according to the Soci- I didn’t want to hear look at you strangely,” said Mr.
ety for Human Resource Manage- about it,” said Mr. Pal. “Any ex- to think not about myself just reasons or if they leave, they leave Dakin, 54.
ment. The organization doesn’t tended time off was somehow a through the lens of work,” he said for the right reasons.” For his first two sabbaticals, in
have data on what’s happened to sign of failure, a sign of weakness of his sabbatical. One study of 50 people who 2011 and 2015, Mr. Dakin took mul-
the perk during the pandemic or even.” Mr. Komornik, now the general took extended time off from work tiweek road trips through national
whether people remain at their jobs He worked through that resis- manager of Slido under Cisco, found that most of the interview parks. He said he believes the fi-
long term after taking a sabbatical. tance with his executive coach as said he thinks of sabbaticals as subjects suffered from “functional nancial costs of paying people to
But several high-profile banks have well as his wife and best friend, medicine that should be dis- workaholism,” according to the not work for a stretch are out-
recently started to offer them and both of whom worked at the com- pensed judiciously. One hard Sabbatical Project, which con- weighed by the benefits to morale
smaller companies are trying them pany. He agreed to take several worker might benefit from a ducted the research. Many re- and spread of knowledge and skills
out as well. Late last year, Goldman months off last spring. It took break after three years of incredi- ported a negative event, such as around the company.
Sachs Group Inc. started offering weeks for him to turn off his brain ble work, he said, while someone the end of a long relationship or “When you’re gone, all the work
six-week unpaid sabbaticals to peo- from work. A month in, he and his else may not need one after six death of a family member, that you’re doing needs to get
ple who have been with the bank wife rented a place in Lake Tahoe, years. When it came to Mr. Pal, prompted them to take a break. picked up by somebody,” he said.
for at least 15 years, following an where he spent time hiking with Mr. Komornik felt he was long Catherine Merritt, CEO of Spool “Your manager gets to see, wow,
early 2021 move by Citigroup Inc. his dog and participating in career overdue a break and didn’t want Marketing in Chicago, said she this person is really important.”
to give employees with at least five development groups. him to feel guilty about consider- started offering her employees During his most recent six-week
years’ service up to 12 weeks off. Mr. Pal’s boss proposed he ing other opportunities. sabbaticals this past fall after see- break last fall, Mr. Dakin redid his
Citigroup said 200 employees have come back to a different role, “We were actually both very ing pandemic-induced burnout home office in San Jose, Calif.,
been approved to take sabbaticals which he did. Six months later he open when he went to the sabbati- take a toll on her workforce. Em- and traveled to Oregon, Yosemite
under the program. decided to leave Cisco to join a cal that he might be leaving,” Mr. ployees who have been with the National Park and Hawaii. All of
Juraj Pal, former head of prod- company whose program he had Komornik said. “It’s very impor- company for three years can take his sabbaticals, he said, have
uct at the polling-software startup participated in while on his break. tant for people to do this because three paid weeks off in addition to helped him gain a broader per-
Slido, was living in New York City “It’s important mostly for men- only if they do, then they can be their vacation time. spective that’s harder to have
last winter and had spent six years tal health, at least it was for me, certain if they stay for the right Offering longer breaks as a when he is in the thick of work.
Make a Game Plan costs outside of work, she said. (Af- ees of a company. salary, that is the point where Mr.
ter all, she added, when everybody Reach out to contacts to ask if Buckmaster recommends indicating
is paying more for groceries, gas they know anyone at a company, your expectations and that you an-
and rent, you don’t stand out.) In- said Lindsey Pollak, a workplace ticipated that the company’s range
W
as an individual, not the outside inflation-related costs for materials does that sound realistic?” she sug-
ith employers gearing up to forces affecting everyone. and other business inputs. gests seeking company-specific in- Be prepared to secure—and take—
boost spending on pay in “Talk about who you are, who sight into how raises and salary another offer.
2022, there has rarely been they are and what you’re going to Do due diligence. negotiations are handled and Workers who stuck with their em-
a better time to go after a raise. be able to do together,” said Alex- Tools like Glassdoor and Payscale whether the organization is setting ployer last year and were successful
Companies are setting aside an andra Carter, director of the Medi- display typical salaries for certain aside more money for pay increases often have room to say, “I’ve helped
average 3.9% of total payroll for ation Clinic at Columbia Law roles, but career coaches and com- this year. to shepherd the company through
wage increases in 2022, the largest School and author of a recent pensation consultants suggest this pivotal time, and I want to see
increase since 2008, according to a book on negotiation. those figures should be used only Don’t be the first to say that reflected in my paycheck,” Ms.
new report from the Conference Frame your ask around your in combination with research a number. Carter said. The strategy also works
Board, a private research group. value as an employee, not your among current or former employ- If you’re interviewing for a new job, when seeking more flexibility or
Organizations are planning on putting a number on your perks, such as time off or additional
raising salary bands, resulting in salary expectations can staff support, she added.
higher minimum, median and maxi- backfire, said David Buck- Some employers will expect
mum salaries for certain job titles— master, a seasoned com- workers to secure a job offer from
PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY CHAYA HOWELL/WALL STREET JOURNAL, ISTOCKPHOTO (5)
which suggests that savvy negotia- pensation executive and another company before they will
tors at every professional level author. You risk boxing negotiate a raise. That approach
could see a bump this year. yourself into a lower sal- carries risk for both parties, Ms.
Inflation is a big reason more ary range before knowing Carter said: Your current employer
money is earmarked for raises this what the company is will- may not counter as you would hope,
year, but the rising cost of groceries ing to pay. so be prepared to accept the other
and rent—among other things— When asked about sal- offer. Similarly, companies need to
doesn’t necessarily mean across- ary ranges, Mr. Buckmas- understand that if an otherwise-sat-
the-board pay increases are on the ter recommends volleying isfied employee has to draw an out-
way. But bosses may be more open back to the company by side offer to get a raise, they may
to negotiation. saying something like, “I ultimately choose to leave for a new
Here’s how to be one of the people don’t know enough about job at a company ready to pay them
who gets a raise this year—from your your company’s approach what they want, she added.
current employer, or your next one. to pay to give you a confi- “People want to see their value
dent number. I trust the reflected in their paycheck, but also
Negotiate based on your skills, company to evaluate me in the enthusiasm with which their
not inflation. relative to others and requests are met,” Ms. Carter said.
It is rational to cite rising costs as place me appropriately in “They want to see that manage-
justification for a higher salary, but your pay range.” ment truly values them, wants to
compensation experts advise that If a job offer comes in keep them, is asking them, ‘How
the most persuasive arguments em- at a lower-than-expected can we help you succeed?’”
A10 | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 NY THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
PERSONAL JOURNAL.
BY RICHARD MORGAN
son says. director of acters in Shakespeare’s tragedy says Sara MacDonald, co-author of for the
Here are five Coen characters the Shake- and the Coens’ dark thriller. The “The Coen Brothers and the Com- other char-
who might have fit into Shake- speare The- Best Picture Oscar winner from edy of Democracy.” “They both acters’ pro-
speare’s world: atre of New 2007 is about a series of violent come to terms with the nature of jections, says Eric LeMay, an Eng-
Jersey, says episodes sparked by Llewelyn’s what it means to deceive others, lish professor at Ohio University.
Jeff “The Dude” Lebowski of the Dude. choice to take money he finds at the possibility of their deaths, and She dies. He barely survives.
(Jeff Bridges) ”You can’t the scene of a drug deal gone a final atonement for the lives “She makes her own case but,
Movie: “The Big Lebowski” get more wrong. they’ve because she’s a woman, can’t be
Shakespeare Analog: Falstaff Falstaffian.” “Every step along the way, you lived—with heard,” says Mr. LeMay, who has
(three plays) As a one-time Falstaff and six-time watch them make the decisions that an attempt taught a class on parallels be-
The Dude, an aging hippie de- Coen collaborator—including as are going to destroy their souls, and afterwards tween Shakespeare and the Co-
voted to bowling with his pals, is the Dude’s best friend, Walter—Mr. they keep going downward,” Mr. to live on ens. “[Tom] lets other people
the Coens’ most iconic character, Goodman abides: “There’s a lot Eustis says. “If you break all moral the straight make a case for him and, because
inspiring fan conventions. Queen there. He doesn’t have the young codes, it has an effect on your soul, and he’s a man, uses it to his own
Elizabeth I was such a fan of Fal- Hal, but I can very easily see that.” your sense of self.” narrow.” advantage.”
Y
ou don’t have to run all shopping bots: can use your browser’s
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During the holidays, get- text messages and browser Be patient. The listings
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the tree required patience, them if your devices are si- as good as the tech power-
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ered product tracker. Now, will send push notifications ally computer code that
the same shop-
ping tools can
help people find
at-home
Covid-19 tests,
which have
grown scarce as
the Omicron
variant rages
across the
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Stock-moni-
toring plat-
forms periodi-
cally check
inventory at
various retail-
DAVID DERMER/ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARTS IN REVIEW
Sophia Bush as Sam Griffith, left,
Jason Isaacs as Rob Griffith, below
left, and Skye Marshall as Lex
Trulie, below right, in CBS’s new
drama ‘Good Sam’
A
convincingly competitive when
Rob starts maneuvering to get his
nyone scheduled for old job back from his own daugh-
open-heart surgery at ter. If one wanted to read a mes-
Lakeshore Sentinel sage about elder care into the
Hospital—the setting story line of “Good Sam,” it’s
of the new medical there to be read, as is a not-so-
drama “Good Sam”— sub subtext about generational
might want to run for his life. The differences: When Rob talks about
place certainly has good doctors— returning to his former position,
cutting-edge, one might say. But he talks about the “natural order”
the competition between its two being restored. Yes, he might
most prominent physicians is so mean a father shouldn’t be work-
distractingly messy you could ing for his daughter. Given his
spread it with a tongue depressor. general demeanor, he might not
The two also happen to be fa- want to work for a woman at all.
ther and daughter, a surprise Mr. Isaacs can be a delicious
sprung early enough in episode 1 villain, as he proved multiple
not to be a spoiler, but late times as Lucius Malfoy in the
enough for the principal charac- “Harry Potter” films, and much
ters to be established: Sam Grif- more recently as Peter Groff in
fith (Sophia Bush), supervisor of of surgery. Everyone’s happy—ex- the Netflix series “Sex Education.”
the surgical residents, is talented, cept, when he comes to, Dad. What’s disappointing in “Good
even-tempered, caring and so “Good Sam,” created by Katie Sam” is his use of an American
shockingly traditional she’s ready Wech (“Rizzoli & Isles”), went accent. It doesn’t seem necessary.
to take a job elsewhere when her into development in late 2019; And one realizes, listening to his
doctor boyfriend, Caleb (Michael chalk up its tardy arrival to the strained inflections, how much his
Stahl-David), doesn’t propose. Her pandemic. But it also might have native British-ness has helped him
father? Rob Griffith (Jason Isaacs) taken a while to get a handle on to bring a kind of grandeur to ma-
is arrogant, domineering, a surgi- how, and for how long, the show’s levolence. In “Good Sam” his vo-
cal “genius” who engenders both story line could play out. Two epi- cal performance makes Rob Grif-
fear and loathing in his under- sodes were available for review, fith sound small and petty.
lings. After being shot by a nut during which time Rob Griffith is Although, in the end, that’s what
with a gun during a hospital shot, goes into his coma, comes he is.
emergency (Sam’s “Dad?!” is our out of it not knowing how long
tipoff that they’re related), he he’s been unconscious or what’s
spends six months in a coma, dur- happening. At the time of the at- Good Sam
ing which time Sam is made head tack, he was having an affair with Begins Wednesday, 10 p.m., CBS
OPERA REVIEW bright, hearty and focused on get- tually Gilda, suddenly hears the (Eve Gigliotti), is here made part of
‘Rigoletto’: Deco
ting what he wants. Even “Ella mi Duke singing, we’ve lost track of the conspiracy to destroy Gilda—
fu rapita,” in which he suggests him and his horrified reaction be- she takes money from the Duke;
that Gilda could make him change cause we are focused instead on watches, unfazed, as her charge is
his ways, offered no variety. the turning set. abducted; then leaves with a suit-
A
traits to create new sides of the tumes that conveys a Monterone’s cane out the Duke as murder victim. During
mid the Omicron-related cas- character with every appearance. In strong sense of period, from under him and part of it, with the aid of some
cade of theater, dance and the first scene, his voice scraped or why that period is makes him fall; in Act drenched red lighting designed by
concert cancellations, the harshly as he did his job, taunting thematically significant. 2, the courtiers do the Donald Holder, she appears to be in
Metropolitan Opera’s New Year’s Count Ceprano with his wife’s infi- The set, a giant cube, ro- same to Rigoletto. two places at once.
Eve show—Bartlett Sher’s new pro- delity. Alone in the next scene, he tates on a turntable. In the Giovanna, Andrea Mastroni was a busi-
duction of Verdi’s “Rigoletto”—went shed that mask along with his first scene, courtiers wear- Gilda’s com- nesslike Sparafucile, lacking some
on as planned. Peter Gelb, the jester props—red gloves, black ing “old Hollywood” slinky panion of the assassin’s menace despite
Met’s general manager, gave a dresses, uniforms or his handsome, velvety bass; Vard-
brief curtain speech thanking the black tie spill through uhi Abrahamyan, a properly blowzy,
company and the audience, and
noting that thanks to the Met’s
A new staging from tall, narrow doors on
all sides until the set
assertive Maddalena, helped make
the Act 3 quartet a vocal high
stringent health measures (“You Bartlett Sher moves the comes to a stop, re- point of the evening. Craig Col-
have no idea,” he said wryly) none
of its performances have been can-
action to Weimar vealing a huge re-
ception room with
clough was a potent, disheveled
Monterone. Conductor Daniele Rus-
celed. It was not business as usual, Germany in the 1920s. gold pillars and tioni proved a sympathetic accom-
of course. The gala dinner was blood-red walls. panist to the singers, but he did
called off, there were some empty Subsequent rota- not keep the score’s dramatic ten-
seats, and Mr. Gelb urged the audi- tions take us to sion at a consistently. high level.
ence members to keep their masks ruff—and ruminated about his own Rigoletto’s multi- In a way, the whole show suf-
on. Still, there was plenty of festive evil deeds with a soliloquy that en- story house and fered from that lack of pure
attire and selfie-snapping, and compassed both guilt and fear. In the assassin animal energy—it was almost
Quinn Kelsey, who sang the title Act 2, when he implored the court- Sparafucile’s den too subtle. “Rigoletto” is a
role, took his bows in a 2022 tiara iers to tell him where they had of iniquity—both barn-burner—you have to
as confetti dropped on the audi- taken his abducted daughter, you generically im- gallop along with the sex-
ence. Just when we started taking could hear that real begging did poverished, ism, violence and senti-
live performance for granted again, not come easily to him, and in the though the latter mentality in order for it to
we were reminded how easily it subsequent duet with Gilda, their has a bar setup in work. In this production,
could go away. mutual devastation was palpable. the center. The despite some gripping theat-
That would be a shame, given Ms. Feola also rose above Gilda’s set also turns in rical and vocal moments, the
the incandescent performances de- vacuous innocence to create a midscene on occa- all-consuming sense of trag-
livered by Mr. Kelsey and Rosa Fe- character with some agency. Her sion. This supplies edy was missing.
ola as his daughter, Gilda. The op- luminous soprano made “Caro some drama, but Quinn
era’s principal characters can seem nome” more than just a star turn. more often distrac- Kelsey in
particularly unsympathetic—the It was thoughtful and deeply felt, tion, upstaging the sing- the title Ms. Waleson writes on op-
court jester, the libidinous duke he and you sensed the character’s ers at critical moments. role of era for the Journal and is
enables, and the ditsy, easily duped through-line, connecting her love For example, when Rigo- Verdi’s the author of “Mad Scenes
daughter whom he basically im- for her father and this new feeling letto, dragging the zip- ‘Rigoletto’ and Exit Arias: The Death of
KEN HOWARD
prisons. But Mr. Kelsey found un- for a mysterious young man. Piotr pered body bag contain- the New York City Opera
usual nuance in Rigoletto, both as Beczala’s Duke, on the other hand, ing what he thinks is the and the Future of Opera in
singer and actor. His booming bari- was one-dimensional—vocally murdered Duke but is ac- America” (Metropolitan).
A12 | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
SPORTS
BY JOSHUA ROBINSON AND BEN COHEN
A
s the rest of the tennis
elite boarded flights to
Australia in recent
weeks, world No. 1 No-
vak Djokovic sat at
home waiting to know where he
might be allowed to play next.
Meanwhile, halfway across the
world, NBA star Kyrie Irving
watched the Brooklyn Nets and
wondered if, when or where he
would be allowed to play his first
game of the season.
Now two of the sports world’s
most prominent vaccine skeptics
have found exceptions to stringent
rules and find themselves returning
to competition at almost exactly the
OPINION
Europe Climate Chaos Goes Global BOOKSHELF | By Daniel Rasmussen
Hard to be-
lieve,
politics
but
change, analysts at the com-
modity research firm CPM
Group cogently argue in a re-
closed last week. Now it can be
admitted: Her motive was to
forestall a momentary rush of
After the state chose for de-
cades to throw money at re-
newables rather than freeze-
Models
sometimes
exhibits
pull toward
a
the rational,
cent report that 2022 will be
the year when energy and cli-
mate realism finally break
through:
German voters to the Green
Party after Japan’s Fukushima
accident, which came weeks
after her party suffered a di-
proof its energy infrastructure,
the out-of-state power sup-
plies that were supposed to be
its insurance policy never ma-
And Mavens
BUSINESS
WORLD especially
when voters
The gestures governments
have been enacting are “not
sastrous drubbing in local
elections. For this passing po-
terialized. Ditto California,
which invested in renewables
In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio
By Holman W.
find it diffi- meaningful in the race to com- litical benefit to Ms. Merkel rather than fireproof its grid By Andrew W. Lo and Stephen R. Foerster
Jenkins, Jr.
cult to pay bat climate change.” and her coalition, Europe will and now is beyond out-of-state (Princeton, 400 pages, $29.95)
F
their bills, The electric vehicles that pay the price for decades. rescue. Its citizens suffer re-
heat their homes and keep politicians particularly love to current intentional blackouts inancial markets are unpredictable, prone to fads, bub-
their jobs. subsidize “will not signifi- to reduce fire risk. One of bles and crashes. This frustrates academics who would
That’s happening in Europe cantly reduce carbon dioxide To see politics turn these winters, the Northeast prefer that the stock market obey Newtonian laws.
now thanks to home-heating output, only shift its location.” will experience its own calami- Andrew Lo and Stephen Foerster have written an intellec-
and electricity prices up 300% “There are real con- really crazy, add tous outages due to its refusal tual history of modern finance theory, built around interviews
at the wholesale level since straints”—surprise—“to mov- energy shortages to authorize the gas pipelines with influential academics and thoughtful practitioners. Their
last winter. In a quote echoed ing toward clean energy indus- and power plants needed to book documents the quest for the perfect portfolio, and shows
across the continent, one of tries,” starting with the and high prices. support a crowd-pleasing rush how far from a science investing remains.
British Prime Minister Boris unwillingness of voters and to renewables. The most important—and well-known—theory to emerge
Johnson’s parliamentary al- consumers to pay for it. Sophisticated state failure from academic finance is Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama’s
lies warned on the weekend Most interestingly, the CPM It’s time to invoke a favor- is an unadmitted father of the efficient-markets hypothesis, which holds that the actual
of “catastrophic” damage to analysts see a “bifurcation” ite phrase, “sophisticated Western world’s drift to popu- price of a security is the best estimate of its intrinsic value.
the government: “Elections between China and the rest of state failure,” for the inability list politics. Recall how the Mr. Fama argues that the last half-century of scholarship has
are won and lost in people’s the world. Not because China of advanced societies to rec- convoluted financial-system been focused on challenging his thesis. “Look guys, you have
wallets.” has opted out of lip service to oncile means and ends, when meltdown and bailouts of 2008 to grow up. You can’t just be complaining about market
Europe’s mess has been the climate cause, but because every attempt to appease gave rise to the tea party and efficiency all your life,” he says of other economists. “You
framed as a story of many in- China now produces emissions powerful and diverse interest birtherism, how the resulting have to come up with something that we can test and reject.”
fluences—the proverbial per- for the world. Europe has con- groups and voting blocs seems rise of Trumpism spawned the Mr. Fama doesn’t think any studies have passed that bar.
fect storm. But it’s really a veniently adopted 1990 (when to result only in a succession countervailing Russia-collusion The greatest proof of the rigor of Mr. Fama’s theory lies in
story of one thing, coal, plus East Germany’s Sovietized of boondoggles and economic panic. A new culture war is the success of low-fee passive
hypocrisy. heavy industry was about to be crises. blossoming over Covid policy. index funds, the brainchild of
By undiversifying its base- shut down) as its emissions An unspoken pillar of The worst always rise to the the great John Bogle, the late
load power supply away from baseline. Even so, Europe’s Merkelism is its touching faith top in such situations: progres- founder of Vanguard. Bogle
dirty coal while also dumping claimed 20% reduction in in the power of markets to sives who believe that with argued that, as a group, active
nuclear, Europe has invited all emissions since then is not compensate somehow for the enough coercion utopia is in investment managers must fall
the consequences you read merely a drop in the bucket irrationalities of public policy. reach; discombobulated mid- short of the market return by
about: ill-advised reliance on when the world increased its This week, European energy dle-class voters whose soured the amount of costs they incur.
Russian natural gas, frantic total emissions 50% overall. prices have been mercifully faith in government curdles The best strategy for investors,
bidding wars with China for It’s a bit of fraud since Euro- moderating thanks to LNG car- into technicolor conspiracy therefore, is to assume efficient-
liquefied-gas shipments, fear pean investors simply relo- goes, a product of America’s theories. markets theory holds and
of rolling blackouts whenever cated their emissions-heavy fracking boom, being diverted A lot more of this may be embrace low-cost, passive all-
a French nuclear plant needs processes to places outside the on the high seas from Asian on the way if the developed stock-market investing.
maintenance or the wind dies European Union. ports to European ones. world keeps playing Russian The data have borne out
down or the sun goes behind a A perfect metaphor is An- And yet the U.S. is not im- roulette with its energy supply, Bogle’s insights. Charles Ellis,
cloud. gela Merkel’s decision in 2011 mune to these pathologies. a vital underpinning of a mod- founder of investment consulting
Though firm believers in to shut Germany’s nuclear Texas discovered as much in ern society and foundation of firm Greenwich Associates and a
the risks of man-made climate plants, including three that last winter’s epic blackouts. every voter’s well-being. great advocate of passive index funds, notes that “over 10
years, 83 percent of active funds in the U.S. fail to match
their chosen benchmarks; 40 percent stumble so badly that
What if It Can Happen Here? they are terminated before the 10-year period is completed.”
Insofar as equity investing is concerned, Mr. Ellis’s findings
seem to vindicate Mr. Fama’s big idea and Bogle’s big innovation.
Through my Weimar analogies, so let’s in some respects has intensi- congressional process for de- Most of the thinkers interviewed in this book argue in
adult life, I look at some current evidence fied. In many states, GOP legis- ciding between competing favor of low-cost passive equity index funds as the foundation
read books that troubles me. latures have moved to reduce slates of electors from the of the perfect portfolio. Yet that’s where agreement ends,
such as Philip In the year since a mob the authority of secretaries of same state, and grounds for the eat-your-vegetables portion of the book stops, and the
Roth’s “The tried to disrupt the certifica- state and other officials congressional objections to fun and controversy begin.
Plot Against tion of Joe Biden as the duly charged with overseeing and electors. The new bill also The book glowingly profiles Bill Sharpe, one of the origi-
POLITICS America” and elected president of the certifying the vote count. A should answer some ques- nators of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which
Sinclai r United States, public opinion few lawmakers are asserting tions: Is a “majority” of the argues that there is a linear relationship between a stock’s
& IDEAS
Lewis’s “It hasn’t budged. About 7 in 10 the legislatures’ alleged consti- Electoral College all 538 elec- expected return and its riskiness, as measured by how much
By William
Can’t Happen Republicans continue to deny tutional authority to set aside tors or only those present it varies relative to the market. Messrs. Lo and Foerster say
A. Galston
Here” with that Mr. Biden was legiti- the popular vote and select and voting? Can a state hold the idea has stood the test of time. Yet Mr. Fama chimes in
bemused in- mately elected. Some 47% of their own slates of electors. an election after Election Day to claim that “the central prediction of the CAPM just has
terest. The counterfactuals Republicans describe the at- if it claims that the results never worked. The relation between average return and beta
were intriguing—what if an tack on Congress as an act of were tainted? In cases of dis- has always been too flat.”
American version of Hitler patriotism, and 56% say the I scoffed at Sinclair agreement, who is the state’s Despite this repudiation by the most brilliant thinker in the
had come to power?—but of attackers were “defending “executive” with the power field, the CAPM still earns a chapter in this book and a promi-
no practical significance. I freedom.” Lewis, but I’ve had to certify its slate of elec- nent place in most business-school curricula. Professors, it
read Lewis’s title unironically: Forty percent of Republicans second thoughts since tors? The list goes on. seems, never want to let a bad model go to waste. Academia’s
It really couldn’t happen here. believe that violence against The country’s antiquated resistance to abandoning models is nowhere better evidenced
Over the past year, I’ve the government is sometimes the Jan. 6 attack. electoral laws and ramshackle than in the famous collapse of Long-Term Capital Manage-
started to wonder. I’m torn justified, a view shared by 23% voting procedures increase the ment, a hedge fund run by several of the most brilliant finance
between fear of complacency of Democrats and 41% of inde- chances of violence in the next academics. Reflecting on its blowup, the distinguished pro-
and fear of alarmism. Was the pendents. Overall, support for Equally threatening is Con- close presidential election. And fessor and co-founder of LTCM Robert Merton said that
Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol the use of violence has risen to gress’s failure to reform the the next election likely will be “errors were made and unforeseeable things happened . . .
the result of a singular conflu- 34% from 10% in 1995 and 16% Electoral Count Act of 1887. close. In the nine presidential But the crisis was not precipitated by an error in the models.”
ence of events or a harbinger in 2010. That law was adopted in re- elections since 1988, the win- In other words, it’s the market’s fault, not the model’s.
of worse to come? Am I suf- Some 68% of the American sponse to the presidential ner has prevailed by less than Financial bubbles are a particularly thorny problem for
fering from a failure of imagi- people have come to believe election of 1876, in which con- 8 percentage points—a record finance theorists. It’s hard to explain how the price of Doge-
nation or an excess of it? that the events of Jan. 6 repre- tested slates of electors from matched only by contests be- coin or AMC or Pets.com is efficient in any sense of the
For the first time, I’ve be- sent an increasing danger of three states created a dead- tween the end of the Civil War word—even if it’s also difficult to short them when they seem
gun to understand the plight of political violence, compared lock in the Electoral College, and the start of the 20th cen- overvalued! Mr. Fama argues against the existence of bubbles,
German Jews in the late 1920s with 32% who regard it as an resolved only by a para-con- tury. We are closely divided as claiming that if we can only identify them in hindsight they
and early 1930s. Some con- isolated incident, and 62% ex- stitutional political deal. Con- well as deeply divided, the must have been rational at the time.
cluded that this time was dif- pect violence by the losing side temporary legal analysts say worst scenario for effective
ferent and acted accordingly, in a future presidential elec- the law is vague or ambiguous governance in the Madisonian
often by leaving the country. tion. A survey released on Jan. at various points and vulnera- constitutional system. Surveying the most brilliant minds in the field,
But most could not take the 4 found 83% of Americans are ble to serious constitutional Although we know how to this financial primer considers the power and
worst case seriously, or even worried about the future of challenge. reduce the chances of a con-
conceive of it. We’ve seen bad America’s democracy, and 71% Writing last month in Na- tested election in 2024, it is limitations of a scientific approach to investing.
times before, they thought, say it’s weaker than it was four tional Review, Benjamin far from clear that the politi-
and we’ve always managed to years ago. Overall, two-thirds Ginsberg, a veteran Republi- cal parties can agree on the
get through them. Surely our of Americans regard U.S. de- can election lawyer, urged necessary steps. If not, the Robert Shiller, who won the Nobel Prize the same year as
friends and neighbors won’t mocracy as “threatened,” com- his party’s leaders to support people’s fears could become a Mr. Fama, and is famous for calling both the internet and the
believe unscrupulous dema- pared with only one-third who an update of the ECA before reality, and political violence housing bubbles, argues that this is academic fundamentalism,
gogues. We’re all good Ger- describe it as “secure.” it’s too late. A rewrite, he could deal constitutional de- a refusal to let common sense get in the way of a beautiful
mans, aren’t we? On the legal front, the said, should clarify the role mocracy in America a fatal model. “Crazy dictators in history—are they rational? They
I recognize the pitfalls of threat to the electoral system of the vice president, the blow. look crazy to me. But, you know it’s an act,” says Mr. Shiller.
“There are bubbles.” Mr. Shiller argues that his cyclically
adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is a good method for
I Got Covid on a Cruise. I’d Take Another identifying financial bubbles. Notably, Mr. Shiller’s CAPE
currently indicates that the U.S. market is near all-time highs
on valuations, and suggests shifting money to cheaper inter-
By Dave Seminara from Tampa, a 15-minute drive virus. Bars and nightclubs have recovered at home, but I suf- national markets.
from our home, so I bought been closed for nearly two fered from fever and general Mr. Shiller’s most famous idea is that markets are more
‘A
St. Petersburg, Fla. tickets for myself, my wife, and years, and a nationwide 9 p.m. weakness for two weeks even volatile than efficient-markets theory allows. This excess-
void cruise travel, re- our sons, 14 and 12. Some curfew remains in effect. after a monoclonal-antibody volatility problem poses a challenge for investors, who have
gardless of vaccination friends thought I was mad— Masks are mandatory, even infusion. to navigate wild and seemingly nonsensical fluctuations. The
status,” the Centers for one, who served in Iraq, sa- outdoors or in a car with fam- So why would I cruise options pioneer Myron Scholes argues that investors should
Disease Control and Preven- luted my “bravery.” But what’s ily members. Police issue $250 again? For one thing, I know be razor-focused on this volatility problem. He warns of
tion warned last week. I took a not to like about getting out of tickets for mask violations and plenty of people who have con- downside “tail risks” and argues that investors should try to
Thanksgiving cruise with my the country without having to social gatherings. Schools na- tracted Covid while barely reduce the peak-to-trough drawdowns in their portfolio value
family—all fully vaccinated— set foot in an airport? tionwide, public and private, leaving home. For another, a and seek to capture the “tail gains” that result when markets
and I got Covid, as did my wife are still virtual: “They say cruise is a delight. You’re part swing back. Mr. Scholes advocates for a much more active
and one of our sons. But I’d they’re hoping to start hybrid of a floating slice of Middle investing style than anyone else in the book. He recommends
gladly cruise again. It’s a delightful way instruction in August 2022.” America. At sea, I was re- reacting to the market information contained in options prices,
Even before the pandemic, to travel, and you can Alejandro, our driver in Co- minded of our national flaws: and using asset allocation to avoid big drawdowns and capi-
the smart set disdained zumel, Mexico, thanked God obesity, gluttony and igno- talize in times of crisis. Above all else, he advises, focus on
cruises, claiming they harm still get sick at home. the cruise ships were return- rance of other countries. But I terminal wealth and compounding.
the environment and local ing. “We used to get 10 per day also saw our appealing attri- Andrew Lo, the lead author of this book, is known for his
communities. Cruising may be and now we have just three,” butes: generosity, kindness and adaptive-markets hypothesis, which says that people respond
the most politically incorrect Contrary to stereotype, we he said. “Without the cruise openness. to the unique experiences of their lives, that different experi-
form of holiday on the planet, had ample opportunities to ships, Cozumel cannot exist.” We also had a chance to see ences and different preferences lead individuals to adapt.
but cruise aficionados don’t learn from locals. In Costa Our elder son and I got sick that Covid insanity and tyr- There is, then, no perfect portfolio, because it would depend
care. The number of passen- Maya, Mexico, our guide, Ro- near the end of the cruise, anny aren’t confined to our on the preferences and experiences of individuals. Not even the
gers world-wide rose from 17.8 berto, explained how Maha- and within a few days of dis- shores. We were reminded that world’s most famous academics, who have all looked at the same
million in 2009 to nearly 30 hual, a village adjacent to the embarking my wife also anyone can catch the virus. We data and read the same papers, come to the same conclusions.
million in 2019. Carnival, the port, effectively cut itself off tested positive. The least were encouraged, practically Perhaps that is the greatest challenge to the brilliant academic
biggest line, reports that its from the world with police mask-compliant member of commanded, to have fun. For theories presented in this book: that markets are human, and
ships in North America sailed checkpoints at the entrance the family was the only one to the first time in a long time, it human action rarely accords with simple linear models or
at 68% capacity in the third and exits to town during the avoid infection. When friends felt good to follow the rules. mathematical equations. “The Perfect Portfolio” highlights these
quarter of 2021 and that cu- pandemic: “They were afraid heard we had Covid, many as- great debates, providing fascinating insights into the people
mulative bookings for the sec- of Covid because there is no sumed our symptoms were Mr. Seminara is a former behind the ideas and raising important questions about the
ond half of 2022 have already hospital nearby.” mild because we’d been vacci- diplomat and author of “Foot- power and limitations of a scientific approach to investing.
surpassed 2019 levels. In Belize, our guide, Israel, nated. That was true of my steps of Federer: A Fan’s Pil-
Carnival had reasonable told us that the country was wife and to a lesser extent our grimage Across 7 Swiss Can- Mr. Rasmussen is the founding partner of the hedge fund
prices for cruises departing still paralyzed by fear of the son, but not as much for me. I tons in 10 Acts.” Verdad Advisers.
A14 | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
OPINION
REVIEW & OUTLOOK LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Overturning the Next Election What Happened to Putting the Patient First?
T
he anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot court, in our view it is unconstitutional. As I walk down the corridors of a Meanwhile, when I tried to get an
is Washington’s theme of the week, and We first endorsed repealing the Electoral major New Jersey medical center, I appointment for myself at the health-
cannot help but notice rows of medi- care system my insurance demands I
waves of righteous anger will roll across Count Act last Jan. 27, and we’re happy to see
cal professionals transfixed to com- use, there was a three-month wait. I
the Mall. We agree the riot was some others on the right have puter screens (“The Doctor’s Office don’t know for whom to feel more
disgraceful, but then why not If the concern is stealing recently followed. Even Polit- Becomes an Assembly Line” by Devo- sorry—my patients or myself.
rewrite the law that encour- the Presidency, fix the icoDemocratshas finally noticed. rah Goldman, op-ed, Dec. 30). The MARC ROSENBLATT, M.D.
aged Donald Trump’s support- run both houses data consumes their attention. While New York
ers to think Congress could Electoral Count Act. of Congress and they are in the patients wait, the professionals ro-
overturn the 2020 election? best position to put the Elec- botically configure information into Many older doctors practice medi-
We’re referring to the Elec- toral Count Act on the agenda. medical “notes.” cine because they enjoy it. But they
toral Count Act, the ambiguous 19th-century stat- But they have preferred to press for partisan ad- This is a laborious process. I often don’t enjoy having to see a certain
ute that purports to allow for a majority of Con- vantage through their various bills to overturn thank God that I paid attention in Ms. number of patients an hour, they don’t
gress to disqualify a state’s electors after the state election laws. Those bills would require McGillicutty’s high-school typing adapt easily to the new system, and
class, not knowing how important it when pushed they simply retire. We’re
Electoral College has voted. Congress’s certifica- breaking the Senate’s filibuster rule to pass,
would be at this stage in my career. losing all that knowledge and experi-
tion of presidential election results should be a which seems unlikely. They’d also erode confi- I can understand the rationale. The ence, right when we boomers are ag-
technicality, but Mr. Trump misled supporters dence in the electoral process. consolidation of data would avoid the ing and need knowledgeable doctors.
into believing Vice President Mike Pence and Con- But there would be Republican support for duplication of services, which could Also consider what you have to go
gress could overturn Joe Biden’s victory, leading ending Congress’s increasingly destabilizing bring astronomical savings. But let us through to speak to your doctor with
to the Jan. 6 march on the Capitol. role in presidential elections. Seven conserva- not forget the patient. The number of these new medical groups. First, you
The effort wasn’t close to succeeding, with tive GOP Representatives wrote in a Jan. 3 state- hours in the day is unchanged and are told to call 911 if it’s an emer-
only eight Senators objecting to the results in ment last year: “The text of the United States the additional computer tasks extract gency. Then, you get a whole speech
any states, though 139 Republicans did in the Constitution . . . is clear” that “Congress has one time from the doctor-patient encoun- about Covid. Next, you are told, “We
House. No Senators voted to object to enough job here: to count electoral votes that have in ter. Many physicians are resigned to are experiencing unusually high call
entering data using computer tablets volumes,” and get put on hold. After
states to deprive President Biden of the 270 elec- fact been cast by any state, as designated by
during the patient encounter, and endless repeated babble and noise
toral votes he needed to win. Presiding over the those authorized to do so under state law.” avoiding eye contact. It’s very easy that passes for music to some, you fi-
Senate, Mr. Pence properly understood his lim- New statutory language could clarify that for the patient to feel distant and ig- nally get the phone tree, and eventu-
ited constitutional role and resisted Mr. Trump’s once legal challenges are over and the Electoral nored, leading to further erosion of ally you might even get an operator.
pressure to intervene. He was one of the heroes College votes, Congress can’t change the out- the doctor-patient relationship. All this to ask a question or check an
of that day. come. Disputes in the states would be settled This is the medical equivalent of appointment. It’s almost not worth it.
Still, Jan. 6 was the most significant abuse of in the states with the judiciary as the best fo- texting while driving. It may not be ALAN BLUM
the law to date and part of a growing trend. A rum to adjudicate. This is what happened in long before we realize the extent of Mount Vernon, N.Y.
smaller number of congressional Democrats Florida in 2000 in Bush v. Gore. The Supreme its effect on patient care.
used the Electoral Count Act to object to both Court would probably have intervened in 2020 RONALD FRANK, M.D. Ms. Goldman writes that “doctors
of George W. Bush’s victories as well as Donald as well, if there had been competing slates of West Orange, N.J. must operate with a clear sense that
they are serving the patients in front
Trump’s in 2016. state electors.
I am one of those independent pri- of them, not the government, data-col-
The Electoral Count Act was an attempt to Rewriting or repealing the Electoral Count vate practitioners mentioned in Ms. lection systems, insurance companies
avoid the mess that followed the contested 1876 Act leaves neither party with a partisan advan- Goldman’s article who will be shut- or hospital directors.”
Hayes-Tilden election, but its ambiguous lan- tage. Now is also a good time to pass such legis- ting down my practice. For 30 years, If only that were true. In any other
guage has made it open to abuse. In these polar- lation, since no one knows who will control each I accepted all insurances, saw pa- service-oriented business, the patient
ized times, both parties could use the law in the chamber of Congress in 2025. tients the same day if need be, would be the customer, able to com-
future as an excuse to attempt to overturn an Democrats keep saying Jan. 6 must never treated some for free and personally pare quality and price in a search for
election in the House and Senate. happen again, but their main goal seems to be kept aware of every aspect of their value. But it has been the unfortunate
Congress shouldn’t have even the appearance to use the memory of that day against Republi- care. But Medicare threatens me with reality for many years that the cus-
of this power. The Framers didn’t want the execu- cans in 2022. If they’re honest about “never 9% cuts for not compiling data for tomers of the physician’s services are
tive branch beholden to Congress, which is why again,” they’ll grab the Electoral Count Act issue. the system, the insurers hire private the third-party payers: the govern-
companies to demand refunds on ment, insurance companies and hos-
they designed an Electoral College to elect the Or Republicans could turn the electoral tables
payments they made to me years ago, pital systems. Unless this changes
President. They gave state legislatures the power on Democrats by grabbing it first. If Congress and I recently received a check for and the patient can again behave as a
to certify electoral votes, as they do according to does nothing, Americans are likely to conclude $280 for performing a difficult cata- customer, both the patient’s and the
the popular vote count in each state. Though the that Jan. 6 has become one more political prop ract surgery. This amount barely cov- physician’s level of satisfaction will
Electoral Count Act has never been tested in for partisan gain. ers my staff’s time to obtain the pre- continue to decline.
certification that insurers demand to DANIEL COHEN, M.D.
do the procedure. YARDLEY, PA.
The Theranos Fraud
S
tartup businesses fail all the time, and They should have done more due diligence,
very few are frauds. The difference with yet Ms. Holmes failed to disclose problems with Heroes, Villains and International Relations
Theranos is that founder Elizabeth Theranos’s technology. Theranos engineers In “What Putin, Xi and Khamenei sion of the world into democracies
Holmes refused to accept that jerry-rigged commercial de- Want” (op-ed, Dec. 28), Aaron Mac- and autocracies.
her company’s blood-testing A cautionary tale vices to run blood samples. Lean makes the important point that This Manichaean frame is unneces-
technology wasn’t working as about ambition and Ms. Holmes concealed this the world is a dangerous place, popu- sary. We don’t need to invoke the ab-
she advertised, and on Mon- from her investors, board and lated with states that have divergent straction of autocracy to explain Rus-
day a federal jury convicted admitting failure. clients. and sometimes violently clashing in- sia’s desire to neutralize Ukraine or
her on four counts of defraud- She claimed at trial the terests. But he goes on to frame this Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons or
ing investors. modified lab devices were a persistent reality not as the factory Beijing’s drive to dominate the West-
Ms. Holmes started Theranos with the vi- “trade secret.” This was also her explanation for setting of the international system, ern Pacific. It does not add any ana-
sion of making lab tests cheaper, faster and hiring law firm Boies Schiller Flexner to intimi- but as an artifact of the recent divi- lytical value. The abstraction’s only
function is to frame international
more accessible to patients by developing a date former Journal reporter John Carreyrou’s
politics as a morality play, one in
small device that needed only a finger-prick sources, including former Theranos employees Intelligent Investors Must which we are the heroes and they are
of blood. Such a test would be revolutionary, who had documented problems with the tests. the villains. This might make for
but Ms. Holmes’s ambition exceeded the tech- But it was clear she was trying to cover up Consider Opportunity Cost good drama, but it doesn’t help miti-
nology. She raised hundreds of millions of dol- Theranos’s problems, not protect intellectual In “The Intelligent Investor: The gate the risk of major war or manage
lars from venture firms and wealthy investors, property. Sorcery That’s Conjuring a 7% Yield” the dynamics of conflict and competi-
but along the way she misrepresented Thera- Ms. Holmes said at trial that “there are many (Exchange, Dec. 18), Jason Zweig does tion that are baked into all interna-
nos’s prospects. things I wish I did differently” including solicit- a rigorous job pointing out pros and tional systems.
She affixed logos of pharmaceutical compa- ing News Corp. executive chairman Rupert Mur- cons, but he is too polite. The Strategy PROF. ANDREW A. LATHAM
nies that had not validated Theranos’s technol- doch to squash Mr. Carreyrou’s story. News Shares Nasdaq 7HANDL Index ex- Macalester College
ogy to materials presented to investors. She Corp. owns the Journal, and Mr. Murdoch re- change-traded fund (HNDL) works St. Paul, Minn.
only if the market goes up. It poses
also gave the false impression that the devices fused. But Ms. Holmes otherwise remained un-
higher risk in any market rout because
were used by the military in the field. Investors apologetic. Perhaps she deluded herself into be- it uses leverage and is 70% bonds. Socialists Rely on Forgetting
were none the wiser since she tightly controlled lieving the phantom technology she promoted If interest rates rise and stock
Theranos’s employees and information. would soon materialize. In “When Populism Turns to Tyr-
prices plunge, HNDL might become
Theranos’s biggest coup was signing deals Each of the four counts for which she was anny” (Americas, Dec. 27), Mary An-
an ETF whirlpool, with selling and re-
astasia O’Grady laments that much of
with Walgreens and Safeway to include its de- convicted carry a potential 20-year prison sen- turn of capital pushing down its
Latin America has reversed its turn to
vices in hundreds of stores. Many investors saw tence, which is excessive. The investors she de- price, which begets more selling.
democracy by electing socialists who
these contracts as an endorsement of Thera- frauded weren’t naifs. But she never did admit Investing is about opportunity
then become dictators. This was the
nos’s technology and growth potential. One the truth that the company’s blood-test tech- cost. Better options offer the same or
case with Hugo Chávez, Evo Morales,
mystery is why these companies bought Ms. nology wasn’t what she promised, and for that lower downside risk. Two examples
Daniel Ortega and the Kirchners. Now,
are the Vanguard Balanced Fund
Holmes’s hype. she may now go to jail. Chile has elected Gabriel Boric.
(14.8% annual return in the past three
I spent over a year in Chile, right
years), and the BlackRock Global Allo-
after the 1970 election of socialist
New York’s Trump Inquisition cation Fund (12.5%). Both funds fell
the same 20% that HNDL fell in early
Salvador Allende. I saw how Allende’s
agenda, including nationalization of
O
2020, yet their annual returns were
ne feature that distinguishes the U.S. duced over 8 million pages of documents in re- businesses, farms and ranches,
78% and 111% higher than HNDL’s.
caused the economy to spiral down-
legal system from, say, Russia’s, is that sponse to [Ms. James’s] subpoenas” since 2019. And their expense ratios are cheaper.
ward. Allende was ousted in a bloody
prosecutors are charged with pursuing The lawsuit notes that Ms. James’s 2018 cam- JASON PRATTES
coup in 1973, but young Chileans sup-
justice—not politically disfa- paign to be New York’s top le- Newport Beach, Calif.
porting Mr. Boric weren’t even alive
vored individuals or families. AG Letitia James better gal officer was dominated by in the ’70s. They have no conception
New York Attorney General have good justification political attacks on Mr. Trump. of the harm socialist policies can
Letitia James’s legal pursuit She said she’d investigate No Mask Mandate at Netflix cause. Young Bernie Sanders support-
of Donald Trump, his organi- for her investigation. “anyone in [Trump’s] orbit,” The analysis in Peggy Noonan’s ers suffered the same affliction.
zation and his children, now and declared the President “il- “‘West Side Story’ and the Decline of ROB HIGGINS
entering its fourth calendar legitimate.” Even Daniel Gold- the Bijou” (Declarations, Dec. 18) and Richmond, Texas
year, smacks of the latter. She’s now trying to man, a Democratic ex-prosecutor who would go the letters (Dec. 27 and Jan. 3) about
movie theaters is astute, but it omits
compel testimony from two of the former Pres- on to serve on the House 2019 impeachment in-
one additional nail in the coffin: mask
ident’s children, and there had better be rock- vestigation targeting Mr. Trump, said Ms. mandates. Spending several hours
Pepper ...
solid evidence of significant wrongdoing at the James’s campaign could “give the appearance wearing a mask isn’t everyone’s idea And Salt
end of this road to justify the corrosive appear- of an individualized political vendetta,” the law- of leisure, particularly when you can
ance of politicized justice. suit says. stay home and stream the movie. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Ms. James’s investigation, according to a In June the Manhattan District Attorney in- Some of us vote with our feet.
2020 court filing, focuses on whether Mr. dicted the Trump Organization and its former JULIA WEINBERG RAFSKY
Trump or others “improperly inflated the value chief financial officer for allegedly concealing Philadelphia
of [his] assets on annual financial statements executive compensation. They’ve pleaded not
in order to secure loans and obtain economic guilty, and the charges might have been han-
and tax benefits.” dled by a fine if not for Mr. Trump’s low politi- CORRECTION
The Attorney General’s recent subpoena of cal standing in New York.
Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump, which Ms. James’s parallel investigation has yet to The June 2021 peak in the U.S. and
they are trying to quash, seeks information “in produce civil fraud charges. Attorneys General Latin American Covid case fatality rate
connection with an investigation into the valu- of both parties are increasingly entangled in predated the Delta variant wave. This
ation of properties owned or controlled by national partisan politics, but it would take sig- was misstated in the Jan. 3 op-ed “Omi-
cron Variant May End Up Saving Lives.”
Donald J. Trump or the Trump Organization, nificant findings of fraud by her office to justify
or any matter which the Attorney General the damage to the legal system inflicted by an
Letters intended for publication should
deems pertinent thereto.” apparently political probe against an opposi- be emailed to wsj.ltrs@wsj.com. Please
A federal lawsuit filed by Mr. Trump seeking tion party leader. Unless Ms. James has the include your city, state and telephone
to halt the investigation notes that his son Eric goods and can prove them unambiguously, her number. All letters are subject to
already was deposed by Ms. James’s office in investigation looks like more evidence of the editing, and unpublished letters cannot “I’m unavailable.
be acknowledged.
2020, and that the former President has “pro- decline of America’s rule of law. Tell them I’m in conclave.”
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Wednesday, January 5, 2022 | A15
OPINION
A
While Russia may be able to strike
crisis may be imminent in
Ukraine as Vladimir Putin
deep into Ukrainian territory and
pressure Kyiv from the north as it
Trade Policy
gathers troops on the Rus- penetrates south, a Ukrainian politi-
sian border for a possible cal collapse is unlikely. And expect By William N. Walker
invasion. American policy an insurgency against Russian occu- And Stanton D. Anderson
A
makers have also begun focusing on pation. Ukraine’s willingness and
a potential conflict in Taiwan, one ability to fight hard, no less than ccording to Sen. Elizabeth
that is coming to a boil more slowly. NATO’s potential intervention, helps Warren, the cause of rising
But American statesmen ought to deter Russian action. prices isn’t “simply some in-
understand: These events can’t be By contrast, Taiwan is small and evitable economic force of nature—
viewed in isolation; they are con- densely populated. Its military isn’t it’s greed.” The Biden administra-
nected and part of a larger political equipped to sustain air and sea con- tion, following Ms. Warren’s lead,
competition for Eurasia. trol around the island, a prerequisite has unleashed the Justice Depart-
Whether Mr. Putin is seriously for defending against amphibious in- ment’s Antitrust Division to find
considering action against Ukraine is vasion. And it is highly likely that the the culprits.
an open question. But Mr. Putin has Communist Party has positioned in- Strong stuff, but they’re actually
achieved three objectives simply by telligence assets on Taiwan ready to on to something: Greed is causing
posing a credible threat. First, he has sow discord throughout Taiwanese at least some of the high prices
DAVID KLEIN
gained President Biden’s attention, society and disrupt civilian communi- American consumers pay every
and the two had teleconferences on cations. The question for the People’s time they go shopping. Yet the vil-
Dec. 7 and 30. Russia views itself as Liberation Army is less whether it can lains aren’t the companies the Bi-
a great power and wants to deal with take Taiwan, but whether it can suc- den administration lawyers are tar-
other great powers directly, not via imagination. Capturing each is es- and Taiwan’s affiliations with the U.S. ceed before a potential American and geting. The real culprit is closer to
the North Atlantic Treaty Organiza- sential to all other strategic objec- and its allies. Mr. Putin understands allied coalition can respond. home—the White House’s own
tion, an execrable reminder of Rus- tives. For Russia, taking Ukraine that a spiraling conflict with NATO With China and Russia in strategic “worker-centric” trade policies,
sian weakness and Soviet collapse. would secure its hold on the Black would overwhelm the Russian mili- cooperation, this is a very dangerous which are gouging American con-
Sea and open other pressure points tary. Unable to hide casualty counts situation. The margin of force be- sumers and helping to stoke infla-
against vulnerable NATO members as he did in Syria, Libya and Ukraine tween potential enemies in the West- tionary price increases.
These aren’t mere regional Romania and Bulgaria. For the Chi- in 2014, he would face domestic op- ern Pacific is far thinner than in Prices for appliances and similar
nese Communist Party, seizing Tai- position. Mr. Putin has an incentive to Eastern Europe, given China’s in- household goods are high because
hot spots, as Russia and wan would allow the country to isolate Ukraine militarily and sepa- creasingly capable military. Russia the Biden administration has con-
China work together to break out of the First Island Chain rate the issue from NATO, striking wouldn’t have to deploy major tinued the Trump administration’s
and conduct offensive operations only when the time is right. ground or naval units to the Asia-Pa- tariff-led trade wars. High tariffs on
upend world order. against Japan, the Philippines and Similarly, a Sino-American con- cific, nor time its offensives with imported steel and aluminum are
even U.S. territories in the Central flict involving a broader Pacific co- China’s. The Russian Pacific Fleet has being passed on to American con-
Pacific. alition would prove dangerous for enough submarines to bog down sumers in the form of higher prices.
Second, Mr. Biden hasn’t commit- Historically, post-Soviet Russia’s the Communist Party’s survival: A Japanese and U.S. units needed to
ted to a military deployment in sup- ruling oligarchy has cultivated in- blockade against Chinese Middle defend Taiwan in shielding the Japa-
port of Ukraine, instead emphasizing tense grievances against indepen- Eastern resource imports could de- nese home islands. That would make The White House claims
an economic response, such as sanc- dent Ukraine. It is a living reminder stroy the regime in weeks to months. China’s mission much more likely to
tions, to a Russian offensive. This is a that Slavic peoples need not live Yet a fait accompli against Taiwan succeed. its policies are ‘worker-
signal that Mr. Biden is reluctant to under one flag. Taiwan is proof that is more viable than a similar strike Roughly concurrent offensive op- centric,’ but only a handful
intervene militarily. Third, and most Chinese-speaking peoples are fully against Ukraine. Russia’s likely stra- erations in two hemispheres would
important, Mr. Putin has mobilized capable of governing themselves. tegic objective would be the capture overstress American and allied re- of workers benefit.
the Russian military to allow almost The modern Communist Party of a land corridor between Donbas sources. Taiwan must become capa-
immediate combat operations against stems from a brutal revolutionary and Crimea. Yet in 2014, the Ukrai- ble of defending itself. But more
Belarus, allowing him to swallow regime that savaged the Chinese nian armed forces, reeling from Rus- broadly, the U.S. must begin thinking Mr. Biden can claim his policies
Minsk. Internationally, Mr. Putin still people, murdering millions through sia’s annexation of Crimea and rely- about its strategic challenges glob- are “worker-centric” only because,
hopes to achieve the Soviet dream of its messianic ambitions and sheer ing upon paramilitaries for additional ally, not in regional segments. This is in his eyes, some workers are more
dismantling the American-led Euro- incompetence. Only by consuming combat power, repulsed a Russian of- a contest for Eurasia—and thus for equal than others. Those of us who
pean security system. This is similar Taiwan can China confirm its supe- fensive against Mariupol and drove the world. aren’t unionized steelworkers and
to his objective in the Middle East: riority. Given the political capital Russian and separatist forces back to metal producers—whose wages are
replacing the U.S. as the prime exter- the Communist Party has invested their current salient. Mr. Cropsey is a senior fellow at propped up by price-gouging high
nal force in the region. in subduing Taiwan, it may no lon- Seven years of warfare have given the Hudson Institute and director of tariffs—are consumers paying more
Although separated by geography, ger have a way to de-escalate even the Ukrainian military valuable com- Hudson’s Center for American Sea- for our appliances. Evidently we
Ukraine and Taiwan occupy similar if it wanted to. bat experience. Ukrainian society, power. He served as a naval officer don’t count. In Biden-land it’s OK to
positions in the Russian and Chinese The clearest obstacle to Russian even in the east, is increasingly hos- and as a deputy undersecretary of shower favors on Mr. Biden’s work-
strategic experience and historical and Chinese escalation is Ukraine’s tile to Russia. The Ukrainian public the Navy. ers while forcing consumers and
other workers to foot the bill. In-
stead of greed, the White House,
Eric Adams Should Remember David Dinkins’s Legacy Ms. Warren and others have the
nerve to call this “fair trade.”
Now they are dressing it up as
A year after David Tawana Brawley, a black 15-year-old, The problem isn’t the race of under Dinkins’s immediate succes- part of the planet-saving mission to
Dinkins, New York’s falsely accused four white men of these elected officials—blacks have sors, Rudolph Giuliani and Michael reduce climate change. In Novem-
first black mayor, kidnapping and raping her. lost ground under white mayors, Bloomberg, life in black New York ber the Biden administration agreed
died at 93, the city Dinkins ran as someone who too—but their policies. Typically, improved dramatically. Violent to convert some tariffs on European
elected its second could help bridge the city’s growing black leaders of big cities have been crime, including murder, plummeted, steel and aluminum into quotas, but
black mayor, Eric racial divisions. He and his support- liberals, who are far better at accom- which means that tens of thousands real price relief waits for a new
Adams. While more ers viewed his election as a civil- modating poverty than at facilitating of young men are alive today who agreement on imports of steel
UPWARD
MOBILITY than three decades rights victory, a blow for the black upward mobility. Moreover, there would be dead if homicide rates had made using environmentally
separate their time underclass. “We passed another are limits to what the government remained at the level under Dinkins. friendly production techniques.
By Jason L.
in office, the city milestone on Freedom’s Road,” he can do to address inequality, because Educational choice expanded, allow- Small amounts of so-called green
Riley
faces challenges in declared in his victory speech. Yet by what drives group disparities today ing hundred of thousands of low-in- steel imports will get a break from
2022 reminiscent of the end of his term, polls showed is mostly rooted in cultural differ- come families to flee chronically fail- the tariffs, while consumers will
the Dinkins era. ences—attitudes, habits and behav- ing schools. continue to pay artificially high
Crime is surging, for starters. The iors—that don’t easily lend them- Those outcomes matter much prices.
New York Post reports that the mur- For the sake of New York selves to political solutions. more to New Yorkers of all shades No one in the Biden administra-
der rate has risen by 46% since 2016. Unfortunately, none of this his- than the color of the mayor. So far, tion will ever say, “We love price-
Rape and felony assault have also in- City, the tales of its first tory has stopped liberal elites from Mr. Adams hasn’t focused to the gouging most Americans by sup-
creased. In the past two years, inci- two black mayors need to continuing to promote black elected extent that Dinkins did on present- porting a greedy tariff policy that
dents of gun violence have more officials as political saviors for mi- ing himself as a symbol of racial favors a few politically friendly
than doubled. Similarly, Dinkins’s have different endings. norities. Following Mr. Adams’s vic- progress. Better to leave that to workers.” But that’s what they’re
first year in office, 1990, set a city tory, a New York Times commenta- others. The history lesson for Mr. doing. They also won’t mention
record for the number of homicides, tor wrote: “Working-class Black New Adams is that competence matters that their approach is premised on
a problem his administration was most voters felt that race relations York, which makes up the heart of more than skin tone. If he remem- violations of international trading
never able to get under control. had worsened. Along with high lev- the Democratic base but has been bers that, he might become the rules that the U.S. once led the way
“Crime is tearing at the vitals of this els of violent crime, which had their shut out of City Hall, will finally first black mayor of New York who in promoting—to prevent precisely
city and has completely altered ordi- primary impact on low-income com- have its moment.” The reality is that deserves to be re-elected. the kind of political meddling that’s
nary life,” said the head of a civilian munities, came sharp rises in wel- now become the norm. Nor will
watchdog group at that time. “Worst fare dependency and hundreds of they acknowledge that they’re con-
of all, it’s destroying the morale of
our citizens.”
The quality of life continued to
thousands of job losses. Racial in-
equality had widened by the time
Dinkins left office at the start of
Protests Don’t Belong tinuing failed Trump trade policies
that conflict with both American
domestic law and international
deteriorate in other ways on Din-
kins’s watch. He “took an extreme
position on homelessness,” urban
1993.
In hindsight, none of this is too
surprising. New York was one of the
At Their Targets’ Homes trade rules and against which Mr.
Biden campaigned in 2020.
American consumers and work-
historian Fred Siegel wrote. “He dis- last big cities in the U.S. to elect a By Michael Taube for his show, and his wife and chil- ers aren’t the only ones being stiff-
missed the evidence that drugs, alco- black mayor, but it had been clear dren were alone that evening. Both armed. The Biden White House has
T
hol and mental illness incapacitated for decades that greater black politi- Toronto ends of his street were blocked off, thumbed its nose at other govern-
most of the homeless as merely the cal clout was no surefire way of ad- he right to protest is essential the driveway was vandalized with an ments by refusing to join regional
‘prevalent myth’ pushed by people dressing social inequality and racial to democracy, but there are A-for-anarchy symbol, and Mr. Carl- trade agreements aimed at curbing
lacking compassion.” Dinkins was a strife. Following passage of the 1965 limits—or there ought to be. son told the Post the intruders “actu- China. It has also punished Ameri-
big-city progressive before it was Voting Rights Act, civil-rights lead- Antivaxxers have held several pro- ally cracked the front door.” can consumers by continuing Presi-
cool. ers turned in earnest to electing tests at the private homes of some Peaceful protest in front of a gov- dent Trump’s tariffs on Chinese im-
The previous decade had been more black officials. By the end of Canadian political leaders, especially ernment or commercial property like ports. The Trump administration’s
marked by several high-profile racial the 1980s, cities from Chicago and in Ontario. a courthouse, a factory or an abor- Phase 1 trade agreement with
incidents that were exploited by lo- Los Angeles to Cleveland and Wash- Protesters targeted the province’s tion clinic is one thing. A protest in China, which set unrealistically
cal politicians and demagogues. A ington had elected black mayors. Conservative education minister, Ste- front of a private residence is beyond high targets for Chinese imports of
white man, Bernhard Goetz, shot Nevertheless, the black poor lost phen Lecce, in August and Health the pale and shouldn’t be accepted or U.S. goods, expired on Jan. 1. The
three black youths who were about ground. Detroit’s first black mayor, Minister Christine Elliott in the late tolerated. Even if you think a public Biden team is almost certain to re-
to mug him on a subway car. Yusef Coleman Young, took office in 1974 fall. A few days before Christmas, a figure is fair game, their families and place it with quotas favoring
Hawkins, a black teenager, was at- and served for 20 years. By 1987, demonstration outside Ontario Pre- neighbors shouldn’t have to put up “worker-centric” constituencies and
tacked by a mob of white youths in a more than a third of the city’s resi- mier Doug Ford’s residence blocked with unruly mobs. tied somehow to climate-change
predominantly Italian Brooklyn dents were on welfare, which was him and his family from entering for Unfortunately, neither Canada nor policy.
neighborhood and shot dead. four times as many as in 1967. several days. A woman attending the most U.S. states have a clear legal American trade policy was tradi-
last protest was arrested for breach- distinction when it comes to protest- tionally bipartisan, and aimed at re-
ing the barricade. ing outside a person’s home or dwell- ducing prices and increasing
The tactic of bringing protests to ing. Both countries need laws pro- choices for consumers. Sadly, both
PUBLISHED SINCE 1889 BY DOW JONES & COMPANY politicians’ homes seems to be an tecting the right to live and raise a parties have abandoned this ap-
Rupert Murdoch Robert Thomson American export. Antiwar protesters family in a peaceful environment. proach. Instead, American consum-
Executive Chairman, News Corp Chief Executive Officer, News Corp targeted Defense Secretary Donald A significant fine—say $100,000 ers are being held hostage by tariff-
Matt Murray Almar Latour Rumsfeld’s homes in Taos, N.M., and for repeat offenders—and the possi- led trade policies initiated by Mr.
Editor in Chief Chief Executive Officer and Publisher
Washington in 2003 and 2004, re- bility of prison time should be suffi- Trump and institutionalized under
Neal Lipschutz Karen Miller Pensiero DOW JONES MANAGEMENT: spectively; Secretary of State John cient to deter such behavior and en- Mr. Biden.
Deputy Editor in Chief Managing Editor Daniel Bernard, Chief Experience Officer;
Jason Anders, Chief News Editor
Kerry’s Boston house in 2013; and courage protesters to make their Americans concerned by high
Mae M. Cheng, SVP, Barron’s Group; David Cho,
Thorold Barker, Europe; Elena Cherney, Coverage; Barron’s Editor in Chief; Jason P. Conti, General
former Vice President Dick Cheney’s views known in ways that don’t prices can expect the government
Andrew Dowell, Asia; Anthony Galloway, Video & Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer; Dianne DeSevo, home in McLean, Va., in 2015. Pro- threaten the personal safety and well- to point the finger of blame every-
Audio; Brent Jones, Culture, Training & Outreach; Chief People Officer; Frank Filippo, EVP, Business testers have also targeted the homes being of their adversaries or bystand- where except at its own “worker
Alex Martin, Print & Writing; Michael W. Miller,
Features & Weekend; Emma Moody, Standards;
Information & Services; Robert Hayes, Chief of senators, including Republican Su- ers. Even the U.S. Supreme Court has centric” and, yes, greedy trade
Business Officer, New Ventures; san Collins and Democrat Chuck held that the government may im- policies.
Shazna Nessa, Visuals; Matthew Rose,
Aaron Kissel, EVP & General Manager, WSJ;
Enterprise; Michael Siconolfi, Investigations
Josh Stinchcomb, EVP & Chief Revenue Officer,
Schumer, now the majority leader. pose reasonable restrictions on the
Paul A. Gigot WSJ | Barron’s Group; Jennifer Thurman, Chief Media figures aren’t immune. Agi- time, place and manner of speech. Mr. Walker served as deputy U.S.
Editor of the Editorial Page Communications Officer tators from a group styling itself special trade representative. Mr.
Daniel Henninger, Deputy Editor, Editorial Page;
Gerard Baker, Editor at Large
Smash Racism D.C. targeted the home Mr. Taube, a columnist with Troy Anderson served in the White House
EDITORIAL AND CORPORATE
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of Fox News host Tucker Carlson in Media and Loonie Politics, was a and State Department during the
1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y., 10036 November 2018. The Washington Post speechwriter for former Canadian Ford administration. Both are re-
Telephone 1-800-DOWJONES reported he was at work preparing Prime Minister Stephen Harper. tired lawyers.
A16 | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
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Patients
in today’s edition. Articles on regional page inserts aren’t cited in these indexes.
A G Morgan Stanley........B11
Abbott Laboratories...B1
Ally Financial............B11
Amazon.com ............... B1
General Motors
.................. A1,B3,B6,B12
Goldman Sachs.........B11
N
Netflix.........................A1 Got Less
Attention
P
American Airlines.......B3 H Pfizer...........................A3
Apollo Global
Management...........B11 Hillwood Investment R
Properties.................B6
Apple.........................B11 Rivian Automotive ..... B3
Home Depot................B6
B Honda Motor...............A4
Royal Caribbean........B11 Continued from page B1
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Hyundai Motor............A4 S a law professor at the Univer-
Argentaria.................B1 Sea...............................B4 sity of Michigan and former
J
BUSINESS NEWS
IMAGINECHINA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
8,600 U.S. flights were can- Delta Air Lines Inc. had can-
celed, or about one out of every celed 69 flights by Tuesday
10 flights, according to FlightA- evening, 2% of the carrier’s
ware. schedule for the day, and had
Airlines have now canceled delayed 341, according to
more than 20,000 flights since FlightAware. A spokeswoman
Christmas Eve. for Delta said the airline
Southwest Airlines Co. had planned to cancel 200 flights
the most disruptions of the on both Tuesday and Wednes-
U.S.-based airlines, canceling day, after Monday’s winter The Chinese developer is accused of illegally obtaining permits to erect a cluster of buildings on man-made Ocean Flower Island.
395 flights by Tuesday evening, storm hobbled operations at
12%
Percentage of Southwest
FlightAware.
While the 2021 holiday
travel season was beset by car-
rier delays and cancellations
The crisis engulfing China
Evergrande Group deepened,
as the embattled property de-
In a statement Tuesday, Ev-
ergrande confirmed the order
to demolish 39 buildings. The
notice, issued by local authori-
700 billion yuan
600
amassed roughly $300 billion
in liabilities as of June 30, has
been struggling to meet its
obligations since the summer,
Airlines cancellations Tuesday because of winter storms and veloper said it had been or- ties in the island province of and to finish building homes
coronavirus-related staff short- dered to tear down dozens of Hainan along China’s southern 500 that it has presold to many
ages, some analysts expect an buildings on an extravagant coast, had previously circu- home buyers.
airline-industry rebound this man-made island in southern lated on social media and been 400 It has missed several inter-
JetBlue Airways Corp. had year. Domestic travel is likely to China. covered by Chinese media. est payments on U.S. dollar
canceled 105 flights by Tuesday be robust and business travel At the same time, Ever- Authorities in Danzhou, a bonds, including some that
evening, 10% of the carrier’s should tick up compared with grande released data showing city in Hainan, ordered a sub- 300 were due in December, and
schedule for the day, and had last year as companies return its much-publicized financial sidiary of Evergrande to de- has been declared in default
delayed 268, according to to the office, Cowen & Co. ana- stress had largely halted sales molish the cluster of build- 200 by major credit-rating compa-
FlightAware. The airline previ- lyst Helane Becker said in a re- of new homes, depriving it of ings, according to a notice nies.
ously said it would trim the search note on Tuesday. an important source of cash. dated Dec. 30. The notice said 100 Evergrande said Tuesday
number of flights it offers “We expect the coronavirus Contracted sales dwindled to the developer had illegally ob- its contracted sales totaled the
through January as the to continue to mutate but for about 720 million yuan, the tained permits and ordered it equivalent of $69.7 billion in
0
Covid-19 Omicron variant each succeeding variant to be equivalent of just $113 million, to knock down the buildings 2021, a near-39% drop from a
causes staffing shortages at the less impactful to the airlines between mid-October and within 10 days or face a forced 2009 ’11 ’13 ’15 ’17 ’19 ’21 year earlier, and far below its
airline. than the previous iteration,” year-end, the company’s fig- demolition. Evergrande has 60 Note: 100 billion yuan = $15.7 billion full-year target. Contracted
The majority of Tuesday’s Ms. Becker wrote. “That ures showed. days to file a potential appeal. Source: the company sales, which reflect new con-
canceled flights are part of doesn’t mean we don’t expect it The buildings were part of “The company will actively tracts signed with home buy-
those trips the company previ- to be annoying, because we do, an ambitious project known as communicate with the author- Danzhou’s government said ers, are a widely watched in-
ously said it was cutting back but we believe the airlines will “Ocean Flower Island,” an ar- ity in accordance with the in a report last month that dustry measure.
on as it sought to give custom- respond to the different vari- tificial archipelago that the guidance of the decision letter Ocean Flower Island had Evergrande’s shares, which
ers time to find other flights, a ants by adjusting capacity.” developer has compared to and resolve the issue prop- harmed the marine environ- had been halted Monday
JetBlue spokesman said. New Despite the travel issues Dubai’s Palm Jumeirah. The erly,” Evergrande said in a ment, partly by causing mass ahead of the company’s state-
cancellations based on inclem- over the holidays, the share Ocean Flower development en- stock-exchange filing. It damage to coral reefs. The city ment, rose 1.3% on Tuesday
ent weather and staffing chal- prices of Southwest, JetBlue, compasses houses, hotels and stressed that the decision ap- previously ordered construc- after trading resumed, to 1.61
lenges are still possible, but the Delta and American have risen other features, including a plied only to a single plot on tion and presales of the 39 Hong Kong dollars per share,
previously announced cancella- during the first two trading roughly 1.1 million-square-foot one of the islets that makes up buildings to stop in May 2020, or the equivalent of 13 cents.
tions have reduced the need for days of 2022. convention center built to re- the Ocean Flower archipelago. according to a Dec. 27 state- The stock fell 89% last year.
For the F-150 Electric Pickup chains and derailed some com-
panies’ plans to start returning
staff to the office.
The surge in cases has also
BY MATT GROSSMAN S&P 500. tions and Tesla Inc.’s rapid clouded the prospects for large
The company has said the rise. in-person events. Italy and
Ford Motor Co. doubled its F-150 Lightning will have a Rivian Automotive Inc., a France, which are due to host
goal for manufacturing the starting price of $39,974 be- startup based in Irvine, Calif., the coming fashion shows, have
new electric version of the fore potential tax credits. Pro- that has seen its valuation both registered record numbers
F-150 pickup truck, the auto duction of the electric pickup soar since its IPO in Novem- of daily cases in recent days,
maker said Tuesday, sending is expected to begin this ber, until recently has had the topping 100,000 and 200,000,
its stock price to levels not spring. market to itself with its fully respectively, far more than in
seen in more than two de- The F-150 truck is Ford’s electric pickup truck, the R1T, previous waves of the pan-
cades. top-selling vehicle and one of which went on sale in the fall. demic.
Ford said it now aims to its most profitable. Ford plans General Motors last month be- Other luxury brands, includ-
produce 150,000 a year, citing to report its 2021 sales results gan deliveries of its GMC ing Italy’s Dolce & Gabbana, We invite you to try our finest massage chair.
high demand for the model. on Wednesday. Hummer pickup.
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About 200,000 reservations Other auto makers reported On Wednesday, GM is
have been placed for the op- their sales figures Tuesday, scheduled to reveal an electric sensei Akira Okabayashi. Designed by the
portunity to order one of the and Toyota Motor Corp. over- version of its Chevrolet Sil- legendary Ken Okuyama. Made in Japan.
trucks, the company has said. took General Motors Co. as the verado, its top-selling vehicle
The first group of reserva- U.S.’s top-selling car company in North America, during a Sound OHCOMassage.com
tion holders will be able to by annual sales. virtual keynote address by
place orders for the electric The electric F-150 is among Chief Executive Mary Barra at Thinking 888-351-4902
F-150 beginning Thursday, several electric-pickup models CES, a big consumer-electron- Audio storytelling on news Model shown: The M-Series | $9,499 to $15,000
Ford said. expected to come out this ics convention. you care about, at home
or on the go.
Shares of Ford rose nearly year. The pickup-truck cate- The model is expected to
12% Tuesday to $24.31, its gory looms as an important compete with the F-150 Light- WSJ.COM/LISTEN Available
highest close since 2001. area of contention as auto ning when it goes on sale, from:
The stock, which has nearly makers race to develop elec- scheduled for 2023. © 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
All rights reserved. 1DJ8214
tripled over the past 52 weeks, tric vehicles, prodded by tight- —Mike Colias
was the best performer in the ening environmental regula- contributed to this article.
B4 | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 * **** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
TECHNOLOGY WSJ.com/Tech
Tencent Unloads
$3 Billion Stake in
Internet Company
BY MATT GROSSMAN they did at the start of 2020
even after Tuesday’s decline.
Tencent Holdings Ltd. has Sea’s market capitalization has
cut its stake in a highly valued recently topped $120 billion.
Southeast Asian internet com- Tencent sold its Sea shares
pany, shedding an ownership at $208 apiece, at the bottom
position that was worth about of an offered range, according
$3 billion. to a term sheet seen by The
Tencent, one of the biggest Wall Street Journal. The sale
Chinese internet businesses, raised a little over $3 billion in
said it is selling about 14.5 total.
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Venture.
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B6 | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Muni Debt 6
2021: 7% 2020: 18.4% 2020: 13.8% clude nursing homes as well as
assisted-living and continuing-
care retirement communities,
CBRE Investment, which has
over $133 billion in assets in-
cluding $35 billion of global in-
20
Stays Hot 5
whose offerings range from in-
dependent living to medical
care and assistance with daily
dustrial property, won the bid-
ding for the Hillwood portfolio
partly because of parent CBRE
15 activities. These facilities are Group’s strong balance sheet.
4
Continued from page B1 permitted by federal law to sell “That allowed us to move
debt in the muni market, not tax-exempt debt the same way quickly,” Mr. Leitner said.
including bonds caught up in 3 that state and local govern- CBRE Investment’s current
10 Investment-grade Below
Puerto Rico’s bankruptcy. borrowers investment-grade ments do because they are per- industrial portfolio includes
Yet investors remain bull- 2 ceived to have a public benefit. over 139 million square feet in
ish. After a fall in debt issu- 5 Any individual facility’s de- the U.S., Europe and Asia. Like
ance in 2020, senior-living fa- 1 fault or drop in bond prices other real-estate sectors, lo-
cilities sold $7.4 billion in new would have limited impact on gistics property has up and
bonds in 2021 through Dec. 13, 0 0
high-yield mutual funds, which down cycles but the down cy-
21% more than they did in mix senior-living bonds with cles have tended to be “short
2019, according to an analysis 2013 ’15 ’17 ’19 ’21 2016 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 2016 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 those of other low-rated bor- and shallow,” Mr. Leitner said.
by ICE Data Services. *Data reflects Jan. 1 of each year †Reflects 151 facilities tracked by Fitch rowers such as charter schools. “We don’t think it’s a cycli-
“The operations have not yet Sources: Municipal Market Analytics (defaults); Fitch Ratings (operating margin) some trends have benefited se- cal bet that’s running out of
fully recovered, even though, in nior facilities, including a hot gas,” he said. “We think it’s a
some places, bond prices have,” ers hardest hit financially, with Borrowers rated BAA were tax-free yield equates to housing market for those look- secular bet that historical per-
said David Hammer, head of Covid-19 driving away prospec- paying 2.12% on 30-year bonds roughly 7.6%, according to ing to sell their homes. formance supports.”
municipal-bond portfolio man- tive residents and adding costs as of Dec. 31, according to data data from Nuveen. Still, indicators point to trou- Hillwood’s sale of the indus-
agement at Pacific Investment for protective equipment. But from Refinitiv, down 14% from Several senior-living bor- ble ahead for the sector. Much trial portfolio will close in
Management Co. He said he has with rock-bottom yields, de- a year earlier. rowers that considered issuing of the revenue to pay back stages starting this year and
reduced his exposure to senior- mand for new bonds outstrip- Meanwhile, 10-year senior- debt in 2020, and then opted bondholders comes from en- possibly stretching into 2023,
living facilities. ping supply and the potential living bonds sold over the past against it, moved forward with trance fees residents pay when Mr. Leitner said. Ross Perot Sr.
The robust appetite for se- for tax increases, the pickings six months yielded 6.6% for selling bonds in 2021 after they move into senior commu- founded Electronic Data Sys-
nior-living bonds is a window are slim for investors in search taxable debt financing the pur- finding the market more recep- nities. But move-ins remain well tems in 1962 and sold that com-
into investors’ willingness to of tax-exempt income. chase of retirement facilities tive, said Seth Brumby of Re- below pre-Covid-19 levels. Non- pany to General Motors Co. in
put aside worries about Yields on risky municipal in Texas and Oklahoma and org, a credit-research firm. The profit continuing-care commu- 1984. A candidate for president
Covid-19-related financial bonds fell in 2021, with inves- 4.4% for tax-exempt debt to risky debt is a welcome addi- nities had an 87% occupancy in 1992 and 1996, he invested in
weakness as the pandemic tors plowing a record $22 bil- buy and refinance a retirement tion for many high-yield funds. rate in the third quarter of numerous other businesses in-
grinds on into its third year. lion into high-yield municipal- facility in Kentucky, bond doc- “Senior-living deals were 2021, down from 93% in the cluding real estate. Ross Perot
Retirement communities are bond funds through Dec. 15, uments show. For an investor well-received with strong in- first quarter of 2020, according Jr. is chairman of Hillwood In-
among the municipal borrow- according to Refinitiv Lipper. in the top tax bracket, a 4.4% vestor interest,” said Jon Bara- to the NIC MAP Data Service. vestment Properties.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Wednesday, January 5, 2022 | B7
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Unilever UL 53.80 -0.26
UnionPacific UNP 252.03 4.26
Procter&Gamble PG 163.47 0.57 UnitedAirlines UAL 46.25 0.76
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LPL Financial LPLA 169.07 6.27
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UPS B UPS 217.29 3.79
L3HarrisTech LHX 214.01 2.44
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PrudentialFin PRU 113.71 3.79
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s LamResearch LRCX 712.00 -13.46 US Bancorp USB 58.77 1.50
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PureStorage PSTG 31.65 -0.35
Qiagen QGEN 52.00 -2.30
UniversalHealthB UHS 133.82 1.80
(888) 999-9170 (800) 355-3063
Lear LEA 192.81 7.58
Qorvo QRVO 160.45 1.02
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CAREERS Leidos LDOS 91.88 1.62
Qualcomm QCOM 187.23 1.02
VF VFC 75.76 2.05
Lennar A LEN 112.54 0.73 VICI Prop VICI 30.15 0.20
One-month CD One-year CD Lennar B LEN.B 93.16 0.93 QualtricsIntl XM 31.95 -3.20 VailResorts MTN 317.36 -4.61
Lone Star Bank $1,000 0.20 CFG Community Bank $500 0.67 LennoxIntl LII 315.17 1.05 QuantaServices PWR 116.15 3.88 VALE 13.55 -0.26
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LibertyBroadbandC LBRDK 158.13 -3.35 Ventas VTR 53.28 1.35
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LifeStorage LSI 146.13 -0.33 RegionsFin RF 23.68 1.01
(877) 484-2372 (833) 755-4354 EliLilly LLY 266.81 -4.92 RelianceSteel RS 163.57 2.29 VornadoRealty VNO 45.31 1.53
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Three-month CD Five-year CD Linde LIN 344.81 6.17 RepublicSvcs RSG 136.58 1.17
Luana Savings Bank $1,000 0.45 Connexus Credit Union $5,000 1.21 LithiaMotors LAD 297.91 0.12 ResMed RMD 253.44 -6.07 W X Y Z
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LloydsBanking LYG 2.66 0.05 RexfordIndlRealty REXR 79.32 -0.90 W.P.Carey WPC 81.70 0.44
Colorado Federal Savings Bank $5,000 0.30 Comenity Direct $1,500 1.10 LockheedMartin LMT 361.99 7.63
RingCentral RNG 184.29 -8.12 s WPP WPP 77.33 1.65
(877) 484-2372 (833) 755-4354 s Loews L 59.39 1.29 RioTinto RIO 67.52 0.79 s Wabtec WAB 97.70 5.41
BrioDirect $500 0.25 Luana Savings Bank $1,000 1.01 LogitechIntl LOGI 85.15 -0.08 Rivian RIVN 101.39 -1.33 WalgreensBoots WBA 53.48 0.42
(877) 369-2746 (800) 666-2012 Lowe's LOW 259.81 4.30 RobertHalf RHI 112.15 2.70 Walmart WMT 142.00 -2.65
Lucid LCID 39.41 -1.52 Robinhood HOOD 17.40 -1.04
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LyondellBasell LYB 96.96 3.80 Roku ROKU 222.83 -10.36 s
Connexus Credit Union 0.85 Luana Savings Bank 0.75 Watsco B WSOB 311.00 4.18
MARKETS DIGEST
EQUITIES
Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index
Last Year ago Last Year ago Last Year ago
36799.65 s 214.59, or 0.59% Trailing P/E ratio 22.90 29.90 4793.54 t 3.02, or 0.06% Trailing P/E ratio * 29.33 40.40 15622.72 t 210.08, or 1.33% Trailing P/E ratio *† 39.63 39.45
High, low, open and close for each P/E estimate * 18.76 24.91 High, low, open and close for each P/E estimate * 22.82 26.75 High, low, open and close for each P/E estimate *† 30.25 32.79
trading day of the past three months. Dividend yield 1.88 1.96 trading day of the past three months. Dividend yield * 1.26 1.60 trading day of the past three months. Dividend yield *† 0.63 0.75
All-time high 36799.65, 01/04/22 All-time high 4796.56, 01/03/22 All-time high: 16057.44, 11/19/21
s
mortgage (ARM) Tuesday Close 1.50 Turkey lira .0746 13.4106 0.7
Haven Savings Bank 2.50% Hong Kong dollar .1283 7.7939 –0.03
t 3.00 Ukraine hryvnia .0363 27.5500 0.7
0 India rupee .01342 74.535 0.03
Hoboken, NJ 201-659-3600 1.00 Euro UK pound 1.3529 .7392 –0.01
s Indonesia rupiah .0000699 14303 0.4
2.00 Royal Savings Bank 2.50% One year ago 0.50 –9 s Japan yen .008611 116.13 0.9 Middle East/Africa
5-year Treasury Chicago, IL 773-768-4800 Yen Kazakhstan tenge .002300 434.81 –0.1 Bahrain dinar 2.6529 .3770 unch
t
t note yield 1.00 0.00 Macau pataca .1245 8.0320 –0.05 Egypt pound .0636 15.7244 0.1
Citadel Federal Credit Union 2.63% –18
Malaysia ringgit .2389 4.1860 0.5 Israel shekel .3250 3.0772 –1.0
Exton, PA 800-666-0191 1 3 6 1 2 3 5 7 10 20 30 2021 2022
0.00 New Zealand dollar .6808 1.4689 0.5 Kuwait dinar 3.3036 .3027 0.04
Apple Federal Credit Union 2.75% month(s) years
J F M AM J J A S O N D J Pakistan rupee .00566 176.650 0.3 Oman sul rial 2.5974 .3850 unch
Fairfax, VA 800-666-7996 maturity Philippines peso .0195 51.182 0.4 Qatar rial .2747 3.640 –0.05
2021
Sources: Tradeweb ICE U.S. Treasury Close; Tullett Prebon; Dow Jones Market Data Singapore dollar .7376 1.3558 0.5 Saudi Arabia riyal .2663 3.7555 0.02
Yield/Rate (%) 52-Week Range (%) 3-yr chg South Korea won .0008351 1197.51 0.7 South Africa rand .0624 16.0176 0.5
Interest rate Last (l)Week ago Low 0 2 4 6 8 High (pct pts)
Corporate Borrowing Rates and Yields Sri Lanka rupee .0049310 202.80 –0.1
Close Net Chg % Chg YTD%Chg
Federal-funds rate target 0.00-0.25 0.00-0.25 0.00 l 0.25 -2.25 Taiwan dollar .03632 27.536 –0.7
Yield (%) 52-Week Total Return (%) Thailand baht .03007 33.260 0.1 WSJ Dollar Index 90.03 0.03 0.03 0.53
Prime rate* 3.25 3.25 3.25 l 3.25 -2.25 Bond total return index Close Last Week ago High Low 52-wk 3-yr
Libor, 3-month 0.22 0.22 0.11 l 0.24 -2.59 Sources: Tullett Prebon, Dow Jones Market Data
U.S. Treasury, Bloomberg 2375.230 1.340 1.240 1.340 0.600 –3.277 3.647
Money market, annual yield 0.07 0.07 0.07 l 0.20 -0.49
Five-year CD, annual yield 0.42 0.42 0.41 l 0.57 -1.60 U.S. Treasury Long, Bloomberg 4352.890 2.070 1.910 2.400 1.570 –7.545 7.352 Commodities
30-year mortgage, fixed† 3.32 3.27 2.83 l 3.37 -1.05 Aggregate, Bloomberg 2235.080 1.860 1.760 1.860 1.150 –2.324 4.419 Tuesday 52-Week YTD
Pricing trends on someClose
raw materials, or commodities
Net chg % Chg High Low % Chg % chg
15-year mortgage, fixed† 2.60 2.55 2.28 l 2.60 -1.20 Fixed-Rate MBS, Bloomberg 2197.430 2.070 1.970 2.070 1.180 –1.466 2.798
Jumbo mortgages, $647,200-plus† 3.34 3.28 2.85 l 3.41 -1.18 DJ Commodity 959.83 10.84 1.14 972.68 750.18 27.60 1.44
High Yield 100, ICE BofA 3464.164 3.885 3.669 4.587 3.162 4.096 6.793 Refinitiv/CC CRB Index 235.51 2.50 1.07 241.18 171.70 37.16 1.35
Five-year adj mortgage (ARM)† 2.85 2.85 2.83 l 3.43 -1.28
Muni Master, ICE BofA 601.707 0.928 0.897 1.082 0.687 0.880 4.274 Crude oil, $ per barrel 76.99 0.91 1.20 84.65 49.93 54.20 2.37
New-car loan, 48-month 3.41 3.41 3.41 l 4.12 -1.19
Bankrate.com rates based on survey of over 4,800 online banks. *Base rate posted by 70% of the nation's largest EMBI Global, J.P. Morgan 914.133 5.012 4.947 5.098 4.335 –1.854 5.482 Natural gas, $/MMBtu 3.717 -0.098 -2.57 6.312 2.446 37.56 -0.35
banks.† Excludes closing costs.
Sources: FactSet; Dow Jones Market Data; Bankrate.com Sources: J.P. Morgan; Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices; ICE Data Services
Gold, $ per troy oz. 1814.00 14.60 0.81 1952.70 1677.70 -7.10 -0.74
B10 | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 * THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
COMMODITIES wsj.com/market-data/commodities
Metal & Petroleum Futures Platinum (NYM)-50 troy oz.; $ per troy oz. March 2.2557 2.3003 s 2.2525 2.2820 .0227 53,135
Contract Open
Jan 950.90 975.00 950.90 970.40 16.70 1,478 Natural Gas (NYM)-10,000 MMBtu.; $ per MMBtu. Interest Rate Futures
April 955.40 983.60 946.10 971.20 17.20 55,648 Feb 3.817 3.944 s 3.709 3.717 –.098 117,120
Open High hi lo Low Settle Chg interest
Silver (CMX)-5,000 troy oz.; $ per troy oz. March 3.674 3.777 s 3.573 3.582 –.096 255,347
Ultra Treasury Bonds (CBT) - $100,000; pts 32nds of 100%
Copper-High (CMX)-25,000 lbs.; $ per lb. March 191-300 192-160 189-060 190-010 –2-07.0 1,243,593
Jan 22.955 t 22.925
23.060 23.038 0.248 514 April 3.639 3.726 s 3.542 3.549 –.086 81,855
Jan 4.3850 4.4690 s 4.3740 4.4660 0.0515 2,859 March 22.920 t 22.655
23.140 23.056 0.246 115,545 May 3.656 3.743 s 3.567 3.575 –.078 114,108
Treasury Bonds (CBT)-$100,000; pts 32nds of 100%
March 4.4245 4.4785 4.3780 4.4750 0.0535 111,303 Crude Oil, Light Sweet (NYM)-1,000 bbls.; $ per bbl. March 157-260 158-020 156-130 156-260 –1-03.0 1,204,453
June 3.700 3.791 s 3.623 3.629 –.077 52,600
Gold (CMX)-100 troy oz.; $ per troy oz. Feb 76.02 77.64 s 75.70 76.99 0.91 273,713 June 158-170 –1-08.0 234
Oct 3.787 3.874 s 3.713 3.721 –.074 74,382
Jan 1800.50 1815.30 1800.00 1814.00 14.60 99 March 75.80 77.40 s 75.47 76.74 0.89 257,529 Treasury Notes (CBT)-$100,000; pts 32nds of 100%
1801.10 1817.20 t 1798.10 1814.60 14.50 373,704 April 75.33 77.01 s 75.11 76.38 0.90 101,537 March 129-160 129-190 129-040 129-090 –5.0 3,846,227
Feb
June 74.42 76.01 s 74.20 75.47 0.93 172,229
Agriculture Futures June 129-025 –7.5 218
March 1807.90 1817.00 s 1801.80 1815.80 14.70 17
April 1804.50 1819.50 1800.60 1817.00 14.60 74,050 Dec 71.10 72.43 s 70.84 72.11 1.00 205,527 Corn (CBT)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu. 5 Yr. Treasury Notes (CBT)-$100,000; pts 32nds of 100%
Dec'23 66.27 67.32 s 66.07 66.97 0.86 102,015 March 591.75 611.25 s 591.50 609.50 20.25 726,028 March 120-162 120-175 120-102 120-137 –.2 3,714,007
June 1808.50 1821.20 t 1803.00 1819.20 14.60 26,369
NY Harbor ULSD (NYM)-42,000 gal.; $ per gal. May 593.00 611.00 s 593.00 609.50 18.50 256,155 2 Yr. Treasury Notes (CBT)-$200,000; pts 32nds of 100%
Aug 1813.40 1822.50 1807.20 1821.40 14.40 11,489 Feb 2.3607 2.4159 s 2.3522 2.4095 .0521 106,482
Palladium (NYM) - 50 troy oz.; $ per troy oz. Oats (CBT)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu. March 109-002 109-016 108-306 109-006 1.4 1,936,021
March 2.3399 2.3935 s 2.3343 2.3872 .0471 51,803 30 Day Federal Funds (CBT)-$5,000,000; 100 - daily avg.
Jan 1855.70 33.70 2 March 683.75 694.25 s 677.75 692.00 11.25 3,133
Gasoline-NY RBOB (NYM)-42,000 gal.; $ per gal. Jan 99.9200 99.9200 t 99.9175 99.9175 137,631
1825.00 1896.00 1825.00 1859.70 33.70 9,360 May 654.75 657.00 s 646.75 656.25 10.75 456
March Feb 2.2560 2.2969 s 2.2495 2.2763 .0198 116,405
Soybeans (CBT)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu. July 99.5150 99.5300 99.5150 99.5300 .0200 174,858
Jan 1346.00 1380.50 s 1346.00 1378.75 34.75 1,820 10 Yr. Del. Int. Rate Swaps (CBT)-$100,000; pts 32nds of 100%
March 1356.00 1392.25 s 1355.50 1389.75 34.25 311,812 March 99-260 –10.5 104,369
Cash Prices | wsj.com/market-data/commodities Tuesday, January 4, 2022 Soybean Meal (CBT)-100 tons; $ per ton.
Jan 424.00 428.60 s 421.10 427.60 3.70 1,922
Eurodollar (CME)-$1,000,000; pts of 100%
Jan 99.8050 99.8075 t 99.7975 99.8000 –.0050 355,909
These prices reflect buying and selling of a variety of actual or “physical” commodities in the marketplace— March 412.00 415.90 s 407.30 414.70 3.40 190,750 March 99.6450 99.6500 t 99.6350 99.6400 –.0050 1,077,125
Dec 98.9150 98.9600 s 98.9050 98.9450 .0350 1,201,205
separate from the futures price on an exchange, which reflects what the commodity might be worth in future Soybean Oil (CBT)-60,000 lbs.; cents per lb.
Dec'23 98.3150 98.3500 t 98.2900 98.3250 .0200 1,176,578
months. Jan 56.80 58.30 s 56.31 58.14 1.93 902
Tuesday Tuesday Tuesday March 56.49 58.54 s 56.41 58.33 1.91 158,853
Rough Rice (CBT)-2,000 cwt.; $ per cwt. Currency Futures
Energy Iron Ore, 62% Fe CFR China-s 122.9 Wheat,No.2 soft red,St.Louis-u 8.0000 Jan 14.64 t
14.46 14.25 14.46 .03 101 Japanese Yen (CME)-¥12,500,000; $ per 100¥
Shredded Scrap, US Midwest-s,m n.a. Wheat - Hard - KC (USDA) $ per bu-u 8.3200 March 14.60 t
14.85 14.43 14.70 .06 6,978 Jan .8665 t
.8674.8595 .8612 –.0060 1,831
Coal,C.Aplc.,12500Btu,1.2SO2-r,w 92.500 Steel, HRC USA, FOB Midwest Mill-s 1500 Wheat,No.1soft white,Portld,OR-u 10.7250 Wheat (CBT)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu. March .8673 t
.8678.8598 .8616 –.0060 215,400
Coal,PwdrRvrBsn,8800Btu,0.8SO2-r,w 30.000 Battery/EV metals March 758.00 771.50 756.25 770.00 12.00 172,499 Canadian Dollar (CME)-CAD 100,000; $ per CAD
Food July 755.00 766.75 752.50 766.25 11.25 69,570 Jan .7839 .7894 .7834 .7871 .0026 927
Metals BMI Lithium Carbonate, EXW China, =99.2%-v,k 39250 March .7843 .7893 .7832 .7869 .0026 131,085
Wheat (KC)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu.
BMI Lithium Hydroxide, EXW China, =56.5% -v,k 32650 Beef,carcass equiv. index British Pound (CME)-£62,500; $ per £
March 793.50 805.25 792.00 804.00 12.50 118,561
Gold, per troy oz BMI Cobalt sulphate, EXW China, >20.5% -v,m 15151 Jan 1.3468 1.3556 s 1.3461 1.3535 .0050 1,579
choice 1-3,600-900 lbs.-u 229.04 July 789.75 803.25 789.75 801.50 12.50 42,341 March 1.3475 1.3553 s 1.3456 1.3531 .0050 193,539
Engelhard industrial n.a. BMI Nickel Sulphate, EXW China, >22%-v,m 5417 select 1-3,600-900 lbs.-u 219.43 Cattle-Feeder (CME)-50,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Swiss Franc (CME)-CHF 125,000; $ per CHF
Handy & Harman base 1811.40 BMIFlakeGraphite,FOBChina,-100Mesh,94-95%-v,m 650 Broilers, National comp wtd. avg.-u,w 1.3295 Jan 165.550 165.550 t 161.600 162.675 –3.575 5,080 March 1.0901 1.0964 1.0895 1.0931 .0023 43,123
Handy & Harman fabricated 2010.65 2.6500 March 168.500 168.500 t 164.900 166.350 –3.175 19,560 June 1.0932 1.0992 1.0929 1.0962 .0024 122
Fibers and Textiles Butter,AA Chicago
Cattle-Live (CME)-40,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Australian Dollar (CME)-AUD 100,000; $ per AUD
LBMA Gold Price AM *n.a. Cheddar cheese,bbl,Chicago 180.00
Feb 138.650 138.725 t 136.775 137.825 –1.100 117,764 Jan .7198 .7249 .7186 .7243 .0051 619
LBMA Gold Price PM *n.a. Burlap,10-oz,40-inch NY yd-n,w 0.8100 Cheddar cheese,blk,Chicago 201.50 April 143.775 143.900 t 142.050 142.675 –1.525 100,039 March .7188 .7251 .7187 .7244 .0052 181,010
Krugerrand,wholesale-e 1887.29 Cotton,1 1/16 std lw-mdMphs-u 1.1589 Milk,Nonfat dry,Chicago lb. 164.50 Mexican Peso (CME)-MXN 500,000; $ per MXN
Hogs-Lean (CME)-40,000 lbs.; cents per lb.
Maple Leaf-e 1905.44 Cotlook 'A' Index-t *n.a. Coffee,Brazilian,Comp 2.1904 Feb 80.775 82.300 s t 79.975 80.150 –.975 73,872 Jan .04892 .04884 s .04840 .04861 –.00003 24
American Eagle-e 1905.44 Hides,hvy native steers piece fob-u n.a. March .04818 .04842 s .04788 .04811 –.00002 114,263
Coffee,Colombian, NY 2.7981 April 86.150 87.975 s t 85.600 87.000 .350 59,480
n.a.
Euro (CME)-€125,000; $ per €
Mexican peso-e 2195.98 Wool,64s,staple,Terr del-u,w Eggs,large white,Chicago-u 1.4750 Lumber (CME)-110,000 bd. ft., $ per 1,000 bd. ft. Jan 1.1302 1.1325 t 1.1276 1.1291 –.0010 5,658
Austria crown-e 1781.77 Jan 1107.20 1141.00 t 1107.10 1133.00 21.00 418 t 1.1287
Grains and Feeds Flour,hard winter KC 25.40
March 1111.50 1144.30 s t 1108.00 1144.00 29.70 1,594
March 1.1311 1.1338 1.1303 –.0010 669,683
Austria phil-e 1905.44 Hams,17-20 lbs,Mid-US fob-u 0.50
Barley,top-quality Mnpls-u n.a. Milk (CME)-200,000 lbs., cents per lb. Index Futures
Silver, troy oz. Hogs,Iowa-So. Minnesota-u 74.33 Dec 18.43 18.43 s t 18.42 18.42 … 4,279
Bran,wheat middlings, KC-u 170 Mini DJ Industrial Average (CBT)-$5 x index
Engelhard industrial n.a. Pork bellies,12-14 lb MidUS-u 1.4890 Feb'22 21.04 21.79 s 21.01 21.04 .32 4,663
Corn,No. 2 yellow,Cent IL-bp,u 5.9500 March 36432 36804 s 36409 36675 220 97,502
Handy & Harman base 23.0050 Pork loins,13-19 lb MidUS-u 0.8475 Cocoa (ICE-US)-10 metric tons; $ per ton.
Corn gluten feed,Midwest-u,w 186.1 June 36392 36708 s 36324 36581 220 160
Handy & Harman fabricated 28.7560 Steers,Tex.-Okla. Choice-u n.a. March 2,502 2,523 t 2,450 2,462 –37 88,208
Corn gluten meal,Midwest-u,w 601.4 Mini S&P 500 (CME)-$50 x index
May 2,538 2,558 t 2,490 2,502 –35 47,186
4808.25 s
LBMA spot price *n.a. Steers,feeder,Okla. City-u,w 173.63 March 4785.25 4764.50 4784.25 –1.75 2,234,550
Cottonseed meal-u,w 318 Coffee (ICE-US)-37,500 lbs.; cents per lb. June 4775.50 4800.00 s 4755.50 4776.25 –1.75 50,770
(U.S.$ equivalent) *n.a. 224.75 235.75 s 223.75 231.75 8.45 116,187
Hominy feed,Cent IL-u,w 165 Fats and Oils March Mini S&P Midcap 400 (CME)-$100 x index
Coins,wholesale $1,000 face-a 19085 May 224.50 235.65 s 223.75 231.80 8.50 51,751 2844.40 2873.10 s 2840.40 2858.20 12.80 37,999
Meat-bonemeal,50% pro Mnpls-u,w 175 March
Other metals Oats,No.2 milling,Mnpls-u 7.2650 Degummed corn oil, crude wtd. avg.-u,w 52.2500 Sugar-World (ICE-US)-112,000 lbs.; cents per lb. June … 2868.20 12.80 n.a.
*n.a. March 18.75 18.85 t 18.62 18.75 .01 333,430 Mini Nasdaq 100 (CME)-$20 x index
LBMA Platinum Price PM Rice, Long Grain Milled, No. 2 AR-u,w 27.75 Grease,choice white,Chicago-h 0.5000
May 18.56 18.59 t 18.35 18.47 –.03 152,836 March 16497.75 16564.00 s t 16139.50 16275.75 –209.75 209,654
Platinum,Engelhard industrial n.a. Sorghum,(Milo) No.2 Gulf-u n.a. Lard,Chicago-u n.a. June 16503.75 16558.75 s t 16138.75 16271.75 –210.50 789
Sugar-Domestic (ICE-US)-112,000 lbs.; cents per lb.
Palladium,Engelhard industrial n.a. SoybeanMeal,Cent IL,rail,ton48%-u,w 425.70 Soybean oil,crude;Centl IL-u,w 0.6183 March 36.25 –.60 2,507 Mini Russell 2000 (CME)-$50 x index
Aluminum, LME, $ per metric ton *n.a. Tallow,bleach;Chicago-h 0.5900 March 2268.90 2288.60 s 2250.80 2266.50 –2.90 455,868
Soybeans,No.1 yllw IL-bp,u 13.6200 May 36.55 –.50 2,187
Cotton (ICE-US)-50,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Mini Russell 1000 (CME)-$50 x index
Copper,Comex spot 4.4660 Wheat,Spring14%-pro Mnpls-u 11.3050 Tallow,edible,Chicago-u n.a. March 2666.80 2667.10 s 2639.30 2652.10 –3.50 16,110
March 117.20 117.68 s 113.37 116.39 3.16 120,782
U.S. Dollar Index (ICE-US)-$1,000 x index
May 111.10 114.53 s 110.95 113.65 2.74 52,426 March 96.20 96.48 s 96.04 96.27 .06 57,100
KEY TO CODES: A=ask; B=bid; BP=country elevator bids to producers; C=corrected; E=Manfra,Tordella & Brookes; H=American Commodities Brokerage Co; Orange Juice (ICE-US)-15,000 lbs.; cents per lb. June 96.21 96.38 s 96.01 96.23 .06 869
K=bi-weekly; M=monthly; N=nominal; n.a.=not quoted or not available; R=SNL Energy; S=Platts-TSI; T=Cotlook Limited; U=USDA; V=Benchmark Mineral Intelligence;
W=weekly; Z=not quoted. *Data as of 1/3 Jan 146.00 146.50 s t 146.00 146.35 –.25 420
Source: Dow Jones Market Data March 142.70 144.25 s 140.60 144.00 1.35 9,043 Source: FactSet
Bonds | wsj.com/market-data/bonds/benchmarks
Tracking Bond Benchmarks Corporate Debt
Return on investment and spreads over Treasurys and/or yields paid to investors compared with 52-week Prices of firms' bonds reflect factors including investors' economic, sectoral and company-specific
highs and lows for different types of bonds expectations
Total Total Investment-grade spreads that tightened the most…
return YTD total Yield (%) return YTD total Yield (%) Spread*, in basis points
close return (%) Index Latest Low High close return (%) Index Latest Low High Issuer Symbol Coupon (%) Yield (%) Maturity Current One-day change Last week
Broad Market Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices Mortgage-Backed Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices –22
HSBC Holdings HSBC 3.900 1.81 May 25, ’26 44 n.a.
2235.08 -0.9 U.S. Aggregate 1.860 1.150 1.860 2197.43 -0.4 Mortgage-Backed 2.070 1.180 2.070
General Motors Financial … 1.200 1.35 Oct. 15, ’24 59 –14 n.a.
U.S. Corporate Indexes Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices 2137.18 -0.4 Ginnie Mae (GNMA) 2.110 0.760 2.110
Burlington Resources … 7.200 2.57 Aug. 15, ’31 90 –9 n.a.
3381.74 -1.2 U.S. Corporate 2.440 1.810 2.450 1299.07 -0.4 Fannie mae (FNMA) 2.060 1.230 2.060
Tampa Electric TE 6.550 3.07 May 15, ’36 140 –9 n.a.
3067.96 -0.4 Intermediate 1.920 1.120 1.930 1993.38 -0.5 Freddie Mac (FHLMC) 2.060 1.210 2.060
601.71 -0.1 Muni Master 0.928 0.687 1.082 Verizon Communications VZ 2.625 1.76 Aug. 15, ’26 38 –8 40
5011.90 -2.3 Long term 3.260 2.880 3.580
680.46 -1.4 Double-A-rated 2.150 1.460 2.150 424.83 -0.1 7-12 year 0.962 0.687 1.133 Trustees of Boston College BOSCOL 3.129 2.84 July 1, ’52 76 –7 n.a.
908.93 -1.2 Triple-B-rated 2.670 2.070 2.670 491.47 -0.1 12-22 year 1.208 1.000 1.524 Goldman Sachs GS 6.750 3.36 Oct. 1, ’37 173 –6 n.a.
High Yield Bonds ICE BofA 485.02 -0.1 22-plus year 1.720 1.443 2.125 Koninklijke Philips PHIANA 6.875 3.30 March 11, ’38 121 –6 n.a.
520.83 -0.2 High Yield Constrained 4.424 3.796 4.834 Global Government J.P. Morgan†
504.32 0.1 Triple-C-rated 7.932 6.304 8.314 595.88 -0.6 Global Government 1.060 0.570 1.060 …And spreads that widened the most
831.41 -0.9 Canada 1.610 0.860 1.820 Cooperatieve Rabobank RABOBK 5.250 3.36 Aug. 4, ’45 128 7 n.a.
3464.16 -0.3 High Yield 100 3.885 3.162 4.587
459.70 -0.1 Global High Yield Constrained 4.655 3.968 5.138 404.84 -0.3 EMU§ 0.522 0.050 0.579 Anthem ANTM 4.650 3.19 Jan. 15, ’43 114 6 n.a.
349.53 0.2 Europe High Yield Constrained 2.846 2.304 3.161 758.68 -0.2 France 0.400 -0.110 0.450 BMW US Capital BMW 0.750 1.16 Aug. 12, ’24 40 5 n.a.
U.S Agency Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices 534.76 -0.4 Germany -0.100 -0.470 -0.010 Bank of America BAC 3.500 1.71 April 19, ’26 34 4 n.a.
1834.59 -0.4 U.S Agency 1.220 0.490 1.230 294.38 -0.1 Japan 0.350 0.260 0.420
Bank of New Zealand BZLNZ 1.000 1.80 March 3, ’26 43 4 37
1602.73 -0.2 10-20 years 1.120 0.370 1.140 593.59 -0.4 Netherlands 0.060 -0.400 0.130
Comcast CMCSA 3.750 1.29 Sept. 16, ’24 50 4 n.a.
4123.93 -2.0 20-plus years 2.310 1.660 2.460 1025.91 -1.1 U.K. 1.120 0.570 1.340
Jefferies JEF 4.850 2.11 Jan. 15, ’27 75 4 n.a.
2873.83 -0.7 Yankee 2.090 1.410 2.100 914.13 -0.6 Emerging Markets ** 5.012 4.335 5.098
AT&T T 5.350 3.57 Sept. 1, ’40 152 4 n.a.
*Constrained indexes limit individual issuer concentrations to 2%; the High Yield 100 are the 100 largest bonds † In local currency § Euro-zone bonds
** EMBI Global Index Sources: ICE Data Services; Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices; J.P.Morgan
High-yield issues with the biggest price increases…
Bond Price as % of face value
Global Government Bonds: Mapping Yields Issuer Symbol Coupon (%) Yield (%) Maturity Current One-day change Last week
Yields and spreads over or under U.S. Treasurys on benchmark two-year and 10-year government bonds in Transocean RIG 6.800 13.28 March 15, ’38 57.250 0.92 54.125
selected other countries; arrows indicate whether the yield rose(s) or fell (t) in the latest session 0.82
Ford Motor Credit … 3.664 1.95 Sept. 8, ’24 104.440 n.a.
Country/ Yield (%) Spread Under/Over U.S. Treasurys, in basis points
Coupon (%) Maturity, in years Latest(l)-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Previous Month ago Year ago Latest Prev Year ago Rite Aid RAD 7.700 9.46 Feb. 15, ’27 93.000 0.63 92.480
0.750 U.S. 2 0.764 t l 0.784 0.589 0.115 0.25
American Airlines AAL 11.750 4.40 July 15, ’25 123.750 124.137
1.375 10 1.666 s l 1.628 1.342 0.915
2.750 Australia 2 0.658 s l 0.603 0.369 0.076 -17.1 -4.9 Sprint Communications … 6.000 1.15 Nov. 15, ’22 104.125 0.13 104.125
-10.4
1.000 10 1.740 s l 1.681 1.623 0.994 7.4 5.0 7.7 WeWork WEWORK 7.875 9.64 May 1, ’25 95.057 0.06 n.a.
0.000 France 2 -0.667 t l -0.663 -0.790 -0.677 -142.9 -143.6 -80.2 4.100 5.20 Oct. 1, ’46 84.800 0.05
Teva Pharmaceutical Finance Netherlands … 85.625
0.000 10 0.230 t l 0.239 -0.020 -0.365 -143.6 -139.2 -128.2
0.000 Germany 2 -0.615 t l -0.605 -0.739 -0.717 -137.7 -137.8 -84.2 …And with the biggest price decreases
0.000 10 -0.119 s l -0.120 -0.389 -0.605 -178.4 -175.1 -152.2 4.125 3.42 Aug. 15, ’31 105.500 –1.14
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass VENTGL n.a.
0.000 Italy 2 -0.071 s l -0.073 -0.222 -0.413 -83.3 -84.7 -53.8 –0.75
FirstEnergy FE 7.375 3.26 Nov. 15, ’31 134.500 135.999
0.950 10 1.219 s l 1.195 0.927 0.551 -44.6 -43.6 -36.7
Dish DBS … 5.125 6.80 June 1, ’29 90.375 –0.63 90.500
0.005 Japan 2 -0.085 s l -0.097 -0.113 -0.124 -84.7 -87.1 -24.9
0.100 10 0.089 s l 0.072 0.057 0.023 -155.9 -89.5 Nokia Oyj NOKIA 6.625 3.71 May 15, ’39 137.094 –0.63 138.750
-157.7
0.000 Spain 2 -0.582 t l -0.580 -0.593 -0.595 -134.4 -135.4 -72.0 Teva Pharmaceutical Finance Netherlands … 3.150 4.51 Oct. 1, ’26 94.240 –0.51 96.114
0.500 10 0.576 t l 0.578 0.368 0.030 -109.0 -105.3 -88.8 –0.48
OneMain Finance OMF 7.125 3.57 March 15, ’26 113.719 114.800
0.125 U.K. 2 0.764 s l 0.677 0.474 -0.157 0.2 -9.7 -28.2
*Estimated spread over 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year or 30-year hot-run Treasury; 100 basis points=one percentage pt.; change in spread shown is for Z-spread.
4.750 10 1.087 s l 0.971 0.751 0.176 -57.9 -66.1 -74.1
Note: Data are for the most active issue of bonds with maturities of two years or more
Source: Tullett Prebon, Tradeweb ICE U.S. Treasury Close Source: MarketAxess
MARKETS
2022 to improve current prod- the consumer bank and auto distributed computing model up processing—including au-
Continued from page B1
cision by the U.S. and other oil
consumers to release extra
barrels from their stockpiles, a
uct offerings and launch new
ones.
This involves modernizing
networks and tapping emerg-
lender.
“We want to get rid of all
the physical stuff and have
software-defined networks
where data are processed and
analyzed on or near the device
where they are generated in-
stead of first being sent to a
thorization decisions—while
minimizing latency, and en-
hancing security, he said.
The technology also makes
$9.5B
Valuation that TPG is seeking
move aimed at cooling rising ing technologies like edge that have the ability to under- corporate cloud or data center. it easier for Mastercard to in its IPO
oil and gasoline prices. computing and decentralized stand the traffic that is com- “It’s putting intelligence work with partners, who can
White House press secre- infrastructure, also known as ing in, is aware of all the dif- right next to our customers, connect directly to the Mas-
tary Jen Psaki said she wel- Web3, technology leaders said. ferent applications that have all the way to the edge of the tercard network, Mr.
comed the decision by OPEC+ Ally Financial Inc. said it is to process the traffic and will customers, within or next to McLaughlin said. The group’s strong perfor-
to boost output. “We do ap- moving to route network traf- intelligently route it wherever the devices that they’re run- Web3, a loosely defined vi- mance has led others to list
preciate the close coordination fic via software, allowing it to it needs to go,” with security ning,” said Ed McLaughlin, sion for a decentralized inter- shares, including European
over the recent weeks with configure cloud and data cen- protocols embedded, said Mr. Mastercard’s president of op- net that uses technologies like private-equity firm Bridge-
our partners Saudi Arabia, ter components remotely. Muthukrishnan. erations and technology. blockchain to give users new point Group PLC and Blue
UAE and other OPEC+ produc- Traditionally, network ac- Ally Financial aims to have The plan is to continue ways to transact, is inspiring Owl Capital Inc., which was
ers to help address price pres- tivity was designed to flow all of its applications running moving payment authorization some companies anchored in formed last year through a
sures,” she said. through physical infrastruc- on the cloud by 2025, the decisions that previously the traditional financial world merger with a special-purpose
Since then, the Omicron ture. Apart from being ineffi- company said. would have been handled by a to offer new types of products. acquisition company.
variant has triggered rapid- With $109 billion in assets
fire travel bans and restric- under management and offices
tions around the world,
threatening once again eco-
nomic growth and oil demand.
Foreign around the world, TPG has
been one of the last of the
original buyout giants to re-
Omicron-related absences
have hobbled airlines, rail
lines and hospitals around the
Banks Test main a private partnership.
With the IPO, it will join peers
such as Blackstone Inc.,
world. Companies have had
again to rethink their back-to-
the-office plans.
Crypto Apollo Global Management
Inc. and KKR & Co., which
have been public for years.
But OPEC and other key en- Unlike those firms, which
ergy actors are betting Omi- Continued from page B1 retained their partnership
cron won’t deliver the kind of resisted offering retail custom- structures for many years af-
shock to oil prices unleashed ers anything other than assets ter their IPOs before convert-
by the first coronavirus shut- linked to government-issued ing to C-corporations on the
downs, when U.S. crude futures currencies because of concerns heels of the 2017 tax cuts, TPG
briefly turned negative, and about money laundering; the will debut as a corporation
ANGEL GARCIA/BLOOMBERG NEWS
subsequent waves. One reason, products’ high volatility, which called TPG Inc.
OPEC delegates said, is a deter- could hurt investors; and pos- The decisions by its rivals
mination inside the group that sible requirements that are still to convert have contributed to
strengthening demand for oil, being developed by regulators. the recent surge in their valu-
including from the petrochemi- Trading of cryptocurrencies ations over the past couple of
cals industry, is offsetting an has surged, along with their years.
expected continuing decline in value. In 2021, the combined TPG is smaller than many
jet-fuel consumption. market value of all cryptocur- of its competitors, which have
Evidence has also emerged rencies more than doubled to built sprawling businesses in-
that Omicron causes less se- over $2 trillion. The moves come during a cryptotrading boom that has surprised regulators and banks. vesting in areas including
vere disease than earlier vari- Almost all cryptocurrency credit, real estate and insur-
ants in populations with sig- trading takes place at ex- known as the blockchain, is in development. Private-bank customers of ance. But the IPO should give
nificant immunity. changes such as Binance and meant to replace the tradi- BBVA said its crypto offer- BBVA Switzerland and holders it fuel to expand its already
In its monthly report last Coinbase Global Inc. More re- tional functions of a bank, in- ing wouldn’t be affected by of a digital account with de- sizable segments dedicated to
month, OPEC raised its de- cently, nonbank payments com- cluding providing a trustwor- these rules because the lender posits of more than €10,000— large-scale private equity, in-
mand estimate for its own oil panies such as PayPal Holdings thy record of transactions, isn’t holding any cryptocur- the equivalent of about vesting in rapidly growing
output by 200,000 barrels a Inc., or online broker Robin- balances and payments. rency for itself. $11,000—can invest in bitcoin companies, socially responsi-
day for 2022. Overall, the or- hood Markets Inc., have begun Last year, the Basel Commit- “Financial institutions can and ether. Wallets to deposit ble investing, real estate and
ganization expects global oil to offer customers access to tee for Banking Supervision, play a role in facilitating the the coins are automatically as- tailored investment opportuni-
demand to rise by 4.2 million owning cryptocurrencies. which sets global standards for access to digital assets to dif- sociated with the account, ties in areas such as SPACs
barrels a day this year. “The Custody banks and financial banking regulation, laid out a ferent client segments and BBVA said. and public companies.
impact of the new Omicron firms such as Bank of New proposal that would require bundling digital assets with BBVA didn’t disclose how TPG also is building a busi-
variant is expected to be mild York Mellon Corp. and Fidelity lenders to set aside a dollar in traditional investments as many customers are using the ness dedicated to buying sec-
and short-lived,” the cartel Investments announced plans capital for every dollar of bit- well,” said Alicia Pertusa, service, but said the greatest ondhand stakes in private-eq-
said in its report. to provide crypto services for coin and other cryptocurren- BBVA’s head of client-solutions demand comes from investors uity funds, an area known as
A surge in natural-gas institutional clients such as as- cies they own, considering strategy. seeking to diversify invest- secondaries. It said Tuesday it
prices in Europe and Asia en- set managers and hedge funds. them among the riskiest assets The bank is offering its ments. The service is offered to hired a co-managing partner
couraged utilities to burn fuel Traditional banks, including a bank could own. crypto services through a sub- most of its customers globally for that business to lead its
oil and coal to generate elec- in the U.S., have been more An association representing sidiary in crypto-friendly Swit- outside the U.S., and is popu- European operations.
tricity, giving oil demand an- wary. In many ways, cryptocur- large banks said the rules zerland. BBVA said the country lar among customers from The offering is being led by
other boost. rencies were invented to obvi- would prevent them from hold- has clear regulation and a high Latin America. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Gold-
—Ken Thomas ate the need for banks. Their ing cryptocurrencies. The com- level of adoption of digital as- —Caitlin Ostroff contributed man Sachs Group Inc. and
contributed to this article. distributed ledger technology, mittee said the proposal is still sets. to this article. Morgan Stanley.
B12 | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
HEARD STREET ON
THE
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY
Last month was when the Omi- last year, and could be again by
cron wave of Covid-19 began to the Omicron-related surge in
hit, but the manufacturing report Covid-19 cases. Also, normalization
didn’t offer any indication that it will be a mixed blessing for the in-
was the factor slowing factories dustry. Tight supply has boosted
down. What it suggested instead vehicle prices and margins for
was that supply-chain problems dealers and manufacturers alike.
are easing and that demand is be- Efforts to hang on to the benefits
ginning to be more easily met. of the current market could lead
A big part of why the manufac- to further surprises.
turing index slipped was that one There is one all-important sec-
of its component indexes, measur- tor where supply-chain shortages
ing supplier delivery times, slipped December’s slip in the manufacturing index suggests supply-chain problems are easing. will get worse rather than better:
to 64.9 in December from 72.2 in electric vehicles. Globally, optimis-
November. Speedier delivery times was getting a little less frantic. factories look as though they will year could still mark a period of tic forecasts for EV adoption are
are usually an indication that And an index measuring manufac- still be very busy in the months transition with factories edging at odds with the slow ramp-up of
things are slowing down, but with turing employment rose, which ahead. An index of customers’ in- their way back to something that metal supplies required for their
all the bottlenecks manufacturers could mean that hiring strains are ventories registered 31.7 in Decem- seems a little more normal. Sup- batteries. The dynamic is likely to
have been facing, this probably easing. Finally, an index of prices ber—better than November’s 25.1, plies might come a little more reward those companies with the
comes as more of a relief than that manufacturers have been pay- but still suggesting that shelves quickly, orders might get filled a most robust supply agreements,
anything else. ing slipped, indicating that materi- are too bare. And an index of or- little faster, and prices might rise which explains why the largest
Indexes measuring new orders als shortages are beginning to der backlogs rose to 62.8 from a little less quickly. After 2021, auto makers have been investing
and production slipped slightly, ease. 61.9. those would be welcome changes. in cell production and deals with
though, suggesting that business Even with constraints easing, Therefore, the first part of this —Justin Lahart mining companies. The losers here
are the small EV startups, which
will have to fight hard for the ma-
terials they need for their bullish
business plans.
Evergrande Gets a New Reason to Worry Tesla defied production con-
straints in a blowout fourth quar-
ter. The EV pioneer has invested
heavily in its supply chain, but it
Embattled Chinese property de- leading to nasty surprises like this 90.7 billion yuan, implying a more China’s new home prices in 70 major may also be getting special treat-
veloper Evergrande isn’t starting one. The risk is yet another head- than 99% year-over-year drop. cities, change from a year earlier ment. China has laid out a red car-
the year in a festive mood. ache for Evergrande, which is al- More broadly, China’s housing pet, and it is the kind of fast-grow-
12%
The company said Tuesday that ready struggling with tight liquid- market remains in the doldrums. ing company suppliers don’t like
it had received an order from a lo- ity and evaporating sales. In December, contracted sales for to turn down. Rivals may find its
cal government to tear down 39 Major credit-rating firms have 24 major property developers fell 10 recent success in ramping up EV
buildings on the Chinese tropical already declared Evergrande in de- 31% from a year earlier, according production hard to imitate, partic-
island of Hainan. Evergrande fault after it missed coupon pay- to Morgan Stanley. There are signs ularly when everyone is ramping
8
hasn’t disclosed why the Danzhou ments last month. The local gov- that the market is stabilizing as at once.
government ordered the demoli- ernment of Guangdong province, Beijing has started to ease policy, Car makers used to worry about
tion. Local media reported that the where Evergrande is based, especially for developers with 6 lackluster EV demand due to range
construction was approved ille- stepped in last month to help man- lower leverage: On a month-on- anxiety and poor charging infra-
gally. Evergrande said the order age its debt crisis. month basis, contracted sales grew structure. As interest in the tech-
4
won’t affect the rest of the devel- The developer said Tuesday that 15% last month. But companies nology snowballs, raw-material
opment, on which it has spent 81 contracted sales for 2021 were 443 that had overextended themselves, supplies could end up being the
billion yuan, the equivalent of billion yuan. That means its con- such as Evergrande, still seem to 2 real problem—as well as the
$12.74 billion, for more than tracted sales from Oct. 20 to the be out of luck. higher vehicle prices they inevita-
60,000 apartments. end of the year amounted to only Last year was a horrible one for Monthly
bly lead to. The supply-related
0
As Evergrande’s troubles have 720 million yuan, using previously Chinese developers that partied challenges that upended the U.S.
moved into the spotlight, local au- disclosed figures. In comparison, hard during the boom days. The 2017 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 auto market in 2021 could have a
thorities have probably stepped up its contracted sales for November year 2022 may not be much better. Note: Data through November surprisingly long afterlife.
their scrutiny of the developer, and December in 2020 were around —Jacky Wong Source: Wind —Stephen Wilmot