CHAPTER 11: GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY

"Once it was necessary that the people should multiply and be fruitful if the race was to survive. But now
to preserve the race it is necessary that people hold back the power of propagation."
- Helen Keller

Intended Learning Outcomes

At the end of this chapter, you should be able to:
1. Have a better understanding of the demographic patterns of the world;
2. Know how global demography affects the other aspects of our living in the current world;
3. Make the necessary correlations between Global Demography and Globalization;
4. Be able to suggest solutions to the current concerns affecting Global Demography; and
5. Equip students with 21st century learning and develop higher order thinking skills that will lead
towards a deeper understanding of Global Demography in the attempt to successfully correlate this concept in
the case of the Philippines.

In this chapter, we shall shift our focus to a very vital and truly indispensable component of
Globalization; people. Demography represents the study of statistics such as births, deaths, income, or the
incidence of disease, which illustrate the changing structure of human populations and thus poses an effect
on globalization on a holistic level. In general, demography pertains to the composition of a particular human
population. It could be argued that over the course of man's history, demographic patterns were reasonably
stable; human populations grew slowly, and the age structures, birth rates, and death rates of populations
changed only gradually. This can be attributed to the fact that epidemics and pandemics had huge effects on
populations, but these effects were short-lived and had little bearing on long term trends leading to the
present day. It is noteworthy also to say that in the past 50 years, this trend of long-term stability has given
way to the biggest demographic upheaval in history, an upheaval that is still running its course and may
continue to affect demographic patterns in the long run (Bloom and Canning, 2003).
In the developed world, a sharp post-war rise in fertility was followed by an equally sharp fall. These
changes in fertility transformed age structures through the creation of a 'baby boom' generation. The term
"Baby Boom" is used to identify a massive increase in births following World War II. Baby boomers are those
people born worldwide between 1946 and 1964, the time frame most commonly used to define them. The first
baby boomers reached the standard retirement age of 65 in 2011. (Bloom and Canning 2004).
(Source: https://www.sutori.com/en/item/the-baby-boom-period-lasted-from-1946-1964-it-refers-to-post-world-
war-ll-when)
The Baby Boom circa 1946

The ageing of this generation and continued declines in fertility and old-age mortality are shifting the
population balance in developed countries from young to old and poses significant effects to the economies of
many nation states as we shall discuss further later. In addition, the developing world has experienced a
population explosion, the result of improved nutrition, public health infrastructure and medical care. The rapid
increase in the global population over the past few decades has resulted in large numbers of people of
childbearing age. This creates 'population momentum', in which the populations of most countries, even those
with falling birth rates, will grow for many years to come (Bloom et.al, 2003).
This is particularly true of developing countries. Population changes have potentially huge implications
for the pace and progress of economic development. For example, an increasing proportion of elderly may act
as a drag on economic growth where smaller working populations must provide for a larger number of non-
working dependents. In situations where there exists both an aging population on one end and a highly
dependent one on the other, a nation states economy must prove to have a solid working median age to
sustain its growth Boserup (1981).

(Source:
https://in.pinterest.com/pin/
652810908467524953/)

Photo caricature depicting

Global Population explosion
(courtesy of pinterest.com)
 In addition, rising life expectancy can also bolster an economy by creating a greater incentive to save
and to invest in education, thereby boosting the financial capital on which investors draw and the human
capital that strengthens economies. Where a country has experienced a baby boom followed by a decline in
fertility, the relative size of the workforce is increased. Countries that are able to absorb the baby boom
generation into productive employment can experience a rapid increase in economic growth. As Bloom et.al,
(2005) opined, countries unable to take advantage of this opportunity run the risk of creating large, chronically
underemployed and increasingly restive working-age populations.

Patterns of Global Demographic Change

The current world population of 7.2 billion is projected to increase by 1 billion over the next 12 years
and reach 9.6 billion by 2050, according to a United Nations report, which points out that growth will be mainly
in developing countries, with more than half in Africa. Our global population, which stood at just over 2 billion
in 1950, is currently gaining new inhabitants at a rate of 76 million people a year (representing the difference,
in 2005, between 134 million births and 58 million deaths). It is of importance to note here that these past and
projected additions to world population have been, and will increasingly be, distributed unevenly across the
world with a huge portion coming from the developing world (Bryant and Sonerson, 2006).
The population of the world's 50 least-developed countries is expected to more than double by the
middle of this century, with several poor countries tripling their population over the period. By contrast, the
population of the developed world is expected to remain steady at around 1.2 billion, with population declines
in some wealthy countries (Bloom et al, 2015).

(Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/indias-trains-are-insanely-crowded-2016-2)
File Photo: An overloaded train with people in India (courtesy of Allianz.com)

As we shall see later, the disparity in population growth between developed and developing countries
reflects the existence of considerable heterogeneity in birth, death and migration processes, both over time
and across national populations, races and ethnic groups. An important consideration remains that this
disparity has coincided with changes in the age-group composition of populations.
 Table 1: World Population Projection - UN Report 2012
(Source: https://www.prb.org/resources/united-nations-raises-projected-world-population/)

Crude Birth and Death Rates

Perhaps one of the simplest ways to consider population growth in the analysis of demographic trends
is through crude birth and death rates. This is computed based on the number of births and deaths per 1 000
people. On a worldwide basis, the difference between these rates is the rate of population growth. Within
regions or countries, population growth is also affected by emigration and immigration as we shall see in the
next chapter of this book. Table 2 below shows that in both developed and developing regions the crude birth
rate has decreased by about half over the past 50 years. This implies a much greater absolute reduction in
developing regions. The net result of these reductions is a current crude birth rate in developing regions that
is similar to that of the developed regions 50 years ago (Bloom and Canning, n.d). As of 2016, the crude birth
rate stood at 18.5 births/1,000 population. This rate results in about 258 worldwide births per minute or 4.3
births every second.
Table 2: Crude Birth rate (per 1000 Population)
(Source: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2006/bloom-canning.html)
 On the other hand, crude death rates follow quite a different flow of activity. The reduction in mortality
in developing countries since 1950 has been very rapid-so rapid that the crude death rate in developing
countries is now lower than in developed countries. The gradual rise in the crude death rate in developed
countries results from the combination of relatively steady infant and child mortality rates and rising death
rates due to an ageing population (Bloom and Canning, 2003).

Table 3: Crude Death rate (per 1000 Population) - UN Population Division

(Source: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2006/bloom-canning.html)

As of 2017 the crude death rate for the whole world is 8.33 per 1,000 (up from 7.8 per 1,000 in 2016)
according to the current CIA World Factbook. Population in the world is currently growing at a rate of around
1.09% per year (down from 1.12% in 2017 and 1.14% in 2016). The current average population increase is
estimated at 83 million people per year.

(Source: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/World-Population-Growth-1950-2050-41_fig1_325002825)
Global Fertility Rate
Fertility rate measures the average number of children per woman. The global average fertility rate is
just below 2.5 children per woman today. The OECD opined that the total fertility rate in a specific year is
defined as the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her
child-bearing years and give birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates. It is
calculated by totaling the age-specific fertility rates as defined over five-year intervals. Assuming no net
migration and unchanged mortality, a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman ensures a broadly stable
population.
Together with mortality and migration, fertility is an element of population growth, reflecting both the
causes and effects of economic and social developments. This number is projected to fall to about 2 by 2050.
This decrease is attributable largely to changes in fertility in the developing world. In 1950, the total fertility
rate among developed countries was already below 3 children per woman; the rate among developing
countries was over 6. Fertility in the latter is now below 3 children per woman. The fertility decline in low-
income countries can be ascribed to a number of factors, including declines in infant mortality rates, greater
levels of education and increased labor market opportunities among women, and the provision of family
planning services (Kelley, 1988).
Table 4: Shows the Global Fertility rate decline - UN Population Division 2015
(Source: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2006/bloom-canning.html)

Infant and Child Mortality Decline

The developing world has seen significant reductions in infant and child mortality over the past 50
years. Infant mortality (death prior to age 1) in developing countries has dropped from 180 to about 57 deaths
per 1 000 live births. It is projected to decline further to fewer than 30 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2050.
The past half century's gains resulted primarily from improved nutrition, public health interventions related to
water and sanitation, and medical advances such as the use of vaccines and antibiotics. Infant mortality rates
in the developed world have been, and will continue to be, significantly lower those than in the developing
world. Developed countries have seen infant mortality decline from 59 to 7 deaths per 1 000 live births since
1950, and this is projected to decline further still, to 4 by 2050. Child mortality (death prior to age 5) has also
fallen, in both developed and developing countries.
 Table 5: Infant Mortality Rates per 1000 births - UN Population Division 2015
(Source: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2006/bloom-canning.html)

Global Life Expectancy

The Global life expectancy or the average expected living age of individuals has steadily increased.
For the world as a whole, life expectancy increased from 47 years in 1950-1955 to 65 years in 2000-2005. In
2016, the World Health Organization reported that 72.0 years was the average life expectancy at birth of the
global population.

(Source: https://www.homehelpershomecare.com/wheaton/community-blog/2017/october/benefits-of-home-
care-for-seniors/)
In most Asian societies like in the case of the Philippines, there exists a high regard for the elderly as they are
mostly accrued an esteemed position in the family.
As a result of the global decline in fertility, and because people are living longer, median age is rising.
The proportion of the elderly in the total population is rising sharply. The number of people over the age of 60,
currently around half the number of those aged 15-24, is expected to reach 1 billion (overtaking the 15-24 age
group) by 2020.
 According to the latest WHO data published in 2017 life expectancy in Philippines is: Male 65.3,
female 72.0 and total life expectancy is 68.5 which gives Philippines a World Life Expectancy ranking of 124.
(Source: http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/philippines-life-expectancy)
It is projected to reach almost 2 billion by 2050. The proportion of individuals aged 80 or over is
projected to rise from 1 per cent to 4 per cent of the global population by 2050. Population ageing is occurring
in both developed and developing countries, although more rapidly in the former. In the developed world, the
proportion of people aged 60 or over will increase from 20 to 32 per cent by 2050. In the developing world, it
will rise from 8 to 20 per cent. There are gender differences in life expectancy (Bloom and Canning, n.d).

Working Age Population

We have discussed earlier what a baby boom is. It is however important to note how these baby
booms have altered the demographic landscape in many countries. Many instances show that an initial fall in
mortality rates creates a boom generation because high survival rates lead to more people at young ages
than in earlier generations. Fertility rates fall subsequently, as parents realize they do not need to produce as
many children to reach their desired family size, or as desired family size diminishes for other reasons. When
fertility falls and the baby boom stops, the age structure of the population then shows a 'bulge' - the baby-
boom-age cohort-created by the non-synchronous falls in mortality and fertility. As this cohort works its way
through the age structure of the population, it represents a share of the population larger than the share
represented by the cohorts that precede or follow it. This movement affects the ebb and flow of productive
age and the working population in general.
The baby boom creates particular challenges and opportunities for countries. In its youth, it is a large
cohort to be educated. Jimenez and Murthi (2006), in addressing the challenges of a large youth cohort (ages
12-24), stress the importance for long-term economic growth of investing in education and health of the young
and the need to ease entry into the labor market for this group. The working age population is defined as
those aged 15 to 64. The basic indicator for employment is the proportion of the working age population aged
15-64 who are employed. The age dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents (people younger than 15 or
older than 64) to the working-age population (OECD, n.d).

Demographic Change and Its Economic Impact

Demographic change is consequential with respect to economic and social development. The
economic consequences of population growth, in particular, have long been the subject of debate. It was first
believed that population growth would lead to the exhaustion of resources. In 1798, Thomas Malthus, perhaps
the first of the 'population pessimists', argued that the world's resources would be unable to keep pace with
population growth. Food production would expand more slowly than population, and many would lose out in
the competition for food.

(Source: https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Malthus.html)
Thomas Malthus argued that world population will outpace resources leading to food scarcity

Then, in the 1960s, it was proposed that population growth aided economic development by spurring
technological and institutional innovation and increasing the supply of human ingenuity. Simon Kuznets
(1967), Julian Simon (1981) and Ester Boserup (1981) were the leaders among the 'population optimists'.
Kuznets argued that larger societies can take advantage of economies of scale and are better-equipped for
trade. Simon showed that the prices of natural resources decline as growing populations, complete with a
greater stock of human ingenuity, make the technological improvements necessary to respond to increasing
demand. Boserup (1981), presented compelling historical evidence of the pressure that population growth
puts on societies to create new solutions in the face of resource constraints. These "optimist thinkers" all
argue that population increase can lead to better opportunities for economic growth and mobility.
The Green Revolution, for example, where new, high-yield crops dramatically increased food
production in much of the developing world, occurred in part as a response to population growth. Although the
optimists did not believe population growth would automatically lead to economic advances, they saw that
favorable policies could help translate increases in population into greater wealth.
In effect, Population neutralism became the predominant school of thought in the 1980s and 1990s.
Advocates of this position (Bloom and Freeman 1986; Kelley 1988) took the optimists' observation that the
consequences of population growth depended largely on the policy environment a step further. Population
neutralism was based on empirical research showing little correlation between the growth rate of income per
capita and the rate of population growth. In other words, population growth by itself has no effect on economic
performance. Other factors such as openness to trade, educational attainment and the quality of institutions
determine whether economic progress can keep pace with population expansion. Although fast-growing
populations tend to experience slower economic growth, when these other factors are taken into account, the
negative impact of population expansion disappears. Recently, population neutralism is giving way to a more
fine-grained view of the effects of population dynamics in which demographic change does affect economic
development. In the Philippines, the advocates of the controversial Reproductive Health Law argue that if the
population of the country could be checked using policy measures such as the RH law, then progress and
development can be easier attained.
 (Source: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/356006/cbcp-pro-rh-law-side-laud-sc-
decision/story/)
Supporters of the RH Law in the Philippines

The Impact of Demographical Changes to Globalization

It goes without saying that Demographic changes affect the phenomenon of Globalization to a large
extent. For instance, the changes in population distribution and population growth might impact economic and
political policies of nation states. In fact, according to a World Bank report in 2013, ageing, migration,
educational convergence and women's growing participation in the labor force all linked to the underlying
demographic transition help to shape countries' comparative advantage. For instance, if a country slows down
on its population growth, there could be more capital that can be infused on socio developmental aspects like
improving education. An improved education level can boost the competitiveness of people in the global job
market. In addition, as the size of the working-age population increases in some countries and decreases in
others and as a global middle class emerges the size and the composition of import demand is also changing,
with further effects on trade flows. For instance, trade in services, such as healthcare and education, is likely
to increase. Demography has shaped trading patterns since antiquity. The early demographic transition in
Europe was bound up with its position at the center of the global trading system, as a source of both
manufactured goods and migrants. The rise of Asia's population prefigured its role at the heart of the global
economy (Harding, nd).
Looking to the Future
What can we expect in the next half-century? Based on the indicators that are available, Roser (2018)
made a few points.
1. All signs suggest that there will be continued but slowing population growth. This continued growth
will result in the addition of roughly 3 billion people to the world population, before it stabilizes around 2050 at
about 9 billion. Managing this increase will be an enormous challenge, and the economic consequences of
failing to do so could be severe.
2. The world's population is ageing, and the growth in the sheer number of elderly people will be huge.
The United Nations predicts that 31 per cent of China's population in 2050-432 million people - will be aged 60
or over. The corresponding figures for India are 21 per cent and 330 million. No longer can ageing be thought
of as a developed-world phenomenon.
3. International migration will continue, but the extent is unclear. The pressures that encourage people
to migrate - above all the lure of greater economic well-being in the developed countries - will undoubtedly
persist, but the strength of countervailing policy restrictions that could substantially staunch the flow of
migrants is impossible to predict.
4. Urbanization will continue, but here, too, the pace is impossible to predict. Greater economic
opportunities in the cities will surely continue to attract migrants from rural areas, but environmental and social
problems may stymie growth.
Although demographic changes are, for the most part, easier to predict than economic changes, the
big-picture outlook is nonetheless unclear. The uncertainties are similar to those we cited regarding possible
changes in the human life span. Will an outbreak of avian flu or another disease become pandemic, killing
many millions and decimating economies? What happens if these diseases are, or become, resistant to
existing drugs? Conversely, scientific advances in areas such as genomics, contraceptive methods, or
vaccines for diseases such as AIDS or malaria could save and improve millions of lives. Global warming and
other environmental changes, or large-scale war, could completely alter the context of demographic and
economic predictions, Millions of refugees, from any cause, could lead demographic predictions to be far off
the mark, and could, of course, lead to upheavals that would dwarf the importance of the analysis offered
here. We live in an uncertain world after all.

Reference Book:
Coronacion, D. & Clilung, F. (2018). Convergence: A College Textbook in Contemporary World. Books
Atbp. Publishing Corp.