DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE

Tuesday, February 07, 2023

CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

GLOBAL  The highest GDP growth since 2013

Inde x La s t C ha nge % c hg  Covid-19 loan restructuring further declined in Dec-22

Do w 33,891 -34.99 -0.10  BBNI plans Rp905 bn share buyback
S&P 500 4,111 -25.40 -0.61  Government raising cooking oil DMO to 50%
Nasdaq 11,887 -119.51 -1.00
 Key takeaways for our MBM site visit
Eido US 23.2 -0.27 -1.15
H.S.I 21,222 -438.31 -2.02  MDKA FY22 operational results
Nikkei 27,694 184.19 0.67  LPKR FY22 pre-sales below target
STI 3,386 1.64 0.05
KLCI 1,490 0.67 0.04 JCI STATISTIC
Ko spi 2,438 -42.21 -1.70
Tn
SET Thai 1,682 -6.25 -0.37 8,000 50.0

40.0

COMMODITIES 6,000
30.0
Inde x La s t C ha nge % c hg
20.0
B rent Crude Oil ($ /bbl) 81.0 1.05 1.31 4,000

WTI Crude Oil ($ /bbl) 74.1 0.72 0.98 10.0

CP O (M YR/to n) 3,725 73.00 2.00 2,000 0.0

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Oct-22

Jan-23
Go ld (US$ /tr o unce) 1,867 2.51 0.13
Nickel (US$ /to n) 27,053 -1374.00 -4.83 Volume JCI Index

Tin (US$ /to n) 26,786 -1522.00 -5.38

Co al (US$ /to n) 252.0 16.00 6.78
DAILY TECHNICAL VIEW
We expect JCI to trade between 6,815 (support) – 6,925 (resistance) level today
BEI STATISTICS ASII : Buy on weakness at 5,775
Comment : Testing support level
JCI 6,874
CPIN : Buy if breakout 5,850
Change (1day) -0.55%
Comment : Chance to rebound
Change YTD 0.34%
EXCL : Speculative buy at 2,300
P /E M arket (X) 14.3
Comment : Chance to rebound
Vo lume (mn shr) 14,070.2
PTBA : Buy on weakness at 3,190
Value (Rp bn) 8,606.1
Comment : Testing support level
↑ 208 ↓ 302 ↔ 299
LQ45 948
% Change (1day) -0.46%
MARKET REVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK
Regional
INTEREST RATE US stocks' declines continued as investors were taking profit on previous week gains in
C urre nt P re v io us anticipation of Jerome Powell's commentary expected to come on Tuesday. On the other
B I 7D Reverse Repo (%) 5.75 5.50 hand, earnings growth prospect also not too convincing, while geopolitical concerns
Fed fund rate (%) 4.75 4.50
continued to simmer on the background, with the US preparing to impose a 200% tariff on
inflatio n mo m (%) 0.34 -0.11
Russian-made aluminum and US-listed Chinese shares tumbling as Washington’s move to
Inflatio n yo y (%) 5.28 5.71
shoot down an alleged surveillance balloon from the country. Nasdaq declined the most,
falling 1.00% to 11,887, followed by S&P 500 (-0.61% to 4,111) and Dow (-0.10% to 33,891).
EXCHANGE RATE
On commodity market, oil prices rose with Brent crude oil price gaining 1.31% to
La s t C ha nge % c hg
USD81.0/bbl, while WTI crude oil price rising 0.98% to USD74.1/bbl. Notable increases in
1USD = IDR 15,055 162.00 1.09
Indo commodity basket were in coal and CPO prices that rose 6.78% and 2.00% to
1USD = SGD 1.33 0.00 0.02
USD252.0/ton and MYR3,725/ton, respectively.
1USD = JP Y 132.68 0.02 0.02
1USD = A UD 1.45 0.00 -0.07
Domestic
1USD = EUR 0.93 0.00 -0.01 On domestic market, JCI fell 0.55% to 6,874. Foreign investors were net buyers with Rp728
bn worth of net buying amount. JCI declines were driven by: technology (-1.62%),
DUAL LISTING properties & real estate (-1.02%), and energy (-0.86%) sector with GOTO (-3.23% to
S t o c k s C lo s e C hg. % c hg In R p.
V o l. ( A D R )
Rp120/share), AMRT (-2.34% to Rp2,920/share), and BMRI (-0.50% to Rp9,875/share).
TLKM 25.4 -0.18 -0.70 3,827 115,310 Rupiah depreciated 162 points to close at Rp15,055/USD. Our technical desk estimates
6,815 (support) - 6,925 (resistance) with the possibility of JCI to close at lower level.

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, February 07, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

THE HIGHEST GDP GROWTH SINCE 2013

Statistics Indonesia recorded a 5.01% YoY GDP growth in 4Q22 and a 5.3% YoY GDP growth in FY22.
As we expected, it is lower than the previous quarter growth of 5.72%. However, this came higher
than Bloomberg consensus at 4.97% YoY in 4Q22. Cumulatively, the GDP growth last year was the
highest since 2013, in-line with our expectations. The biggest source of growth came from export
contributing 24.49% of growth where it grew by 16.28% YoY. Meanwhile, household consumption
became the highest contributor of GDP in 2022 (51.87% of GDP), it increased by 4.48 YoY in 4Q22. As
the second biggest contributor (29.08% of GDP), the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) or
investment grew by 3.31% YoY in 4Q22. The government spending contributed 7.66% of FY22 GDP
but contracted by - 4.51% YoY in 4Q22.

Comment: We expect slower GDP growth of 5.0% in 2023 on the back of : i) persistently higher
inflation at least in 1H23 could dent household consumption growth while ii) global economic
slowdown and declining commodity prices especially slump in coal prices should lead to lower
export growth rate and iii) and higher interest rate environment will weigh down manufacturing
sector. Meanwhile stronger consumption induced by campaign activities ahead of 2024 general
election, and gradual decline in interest rate in 2H23 would provide some supports, in our view.

COVID-19 LOAN RESTRUCTURING FURTHER DECLINED IN DEC-22

Financial Services Authorities (OJK) recorded that restructured loan due to covid-19 has declined to
Rp469 tn in Dec-22 (from Rp499.9 tn in Nov-22 and the peak of Rp830 tn in Oct-20). This is
representing 7.3% of total loan as of Dec-22. That said, OJK believes that banking system is ready to
face the end relaxation in Mar-23, except for the certain sectors that received relaxation extension
up to Mar-24. OJK stated that the exception sectors will be maintained to be MSME, accommodation,
and labor-intensive sectors, and no plans to add more sectors for this relaxation extension. OJK also
expects loan growth to accelerate to 10-12% in 2023F (vs. 11.35% YoY in 2022) and third party fund
to grow by 7-9% YoY in 2023F.
Comments: We maintain our Overweight rating on Banking sector with improvement in asset quality,
including loan restructured, and CoC being one of the earnings driver for banking sector in 2023F.

BBNI PLANS RP905 BN SHARE BUYBACK

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) plans to conduct shares buyback with the maximum value of Rp0.9 tn
or 10% of the total capital. The buyback is planned be completed within 16 March 2023 – 15
September 2024, or 18 months upon the date of the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders
(AGMS) in 15 March. The buyback is intended to help offset selling pressure on the market, as the
company still anticipate market fluctuations. The bank is in the process of submitting the Buyback
approval to OJK.
Comments: We believe this should be a good sentiment for the stock. We have a Buy
recommendation on BBNI with Rp11,775/share target price.

GOVERNMENT RAISING COOKING OIL DMO TO 50%

The Indonesian government has decided to increase the domestic market obligation (DMO) for
cooking oil to 50%, Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Luhut Binsar
Pandjaitan, has said. The current DMO for cooking oil requires producers of crude palm oil (CPO)
who wish to export the commodity to fulfill the DMO quota of 1:6. There will be an increase in the
price of bulk cooking oil ahead of Ramadan. Currently, the government is observing a shift in the

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, February 07, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

consumption of cooking oil. People who usually buy premium cooking oil have started to consume
Minyakita, which was used by the government to check domestic cooking oil prices and match them
with the ceiling price (HET) of Rp14,000 per liter. In addition, there has been an increase in the price
of Minyakita cooking oil due to reduced DMO supply, especially for Minyakita.
Comment: The rise in DMO will reflect to higher supply in domestic market hence would squeeze
price for palm oil product. However, the decline in export will prompt global CPO price hike hence
we believe the price dynamic will only happen in short period and should stabilize once stable
inventory achieved. We maintain our FY23F CPO price of RM5,300/ton and reiterate OVERWEIGHT
view on Plantation sector.

KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR OUR MBM SITE VISIT

We visited Merdeka Battery Material's (MBM) site to survey the progress on its purported nickel
projects which include AIM, SCM, ZHN, CSI and IKIP. Below are a few things that we learned during
our visit:
1. Acid Iron Metal (AIM) project: The AIM project progress is currently at 64% and is slated to
start producing Acid for HPAL plants in Morowali in 3Q23, and extracting the other minerals
such as Gold, Copper and Iron in 1Q24. We view project as a very resourceful means to take
advantage of Wetar’s Pyrite ore.

2. Sulawesi Cahaya Mineral (SCM) project: Though the company has made stunning progress on
the development of its hauling-road infrastructure, and limonite ore slurry pipeline. The
company has made magnificent stride in that department as is still on track to provide
saprolite and limonite ore by 2Q23. It should be noted that MBM’s saprolite ore moisture
content is around >40% and will be priced accordingly. We also observed that MBM’s limonite
to saprolite content ratio is around 4:1.
3. Zhao Hui Nickel (ZHN), Bukit Smelter Indonesia (BSI) and Cahaya Smelter Indonesia (CSI)
project: ZHN is slated to finish production of its 50ktpa of NPI in 1H23, adding to CSI and BSI
capacity this would amount to a total of 88ktpa of NPI for MDKA. Moreover, MDKA is planning
to convert one of its smelters to produce nickel matte, according to management information
the conversion cost would amount to around USD600-700/ton + 5% loss during conversion to
matte. It is estimated that the total capex for this converter would be around USD100-130mn.
4. Indonesia Konowe Industrial Park (IKIP) project: Though currently hampered by permit issues,
the company is slated to start construction on one of its three possible HPAL smelter in March.
We have yet to incorporate the HPAL project into our valuation awaiting further details from
management.
Comment: We view the progress of MBM’s project as a very positive one. Following clearer picture of
their ZHN and nickel in matte conversion project, we will incorporate the projects into our MDKA
valuation. Furthermore we see additional upside value from the planned 3 HPAL project in IKIP
which we have not factored into our valuation yet. Currently we have Buy rating for MDKA at
Rp5,650.

MDKA FY22 OPERATIONAL RESULT

Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA announced that in FY22 they recorded gold sales production and sales
volume at 3,547 kg (0.9% YoY) and 3,312 kg (72.1%) which came in line and slightly below our FY22
expectation at 102% and 95%, respectively. Nickel segment outperformed our expectation recording
38,786 ton of production volume and 25,824 ton of sales volume, coming in line and exceeding our
expectation forming 98% and 116% of our FY22F. Copper segment production and sales volume
recorded a2.7% and 73.9% growth to 19,551 ton and 20,337 ton forming 93% and 97% of our FY22F,
below our expectation and inline with our expectation, respectively.

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, February 07, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

Comment: Following updated guidance for FY23F we will review our operational guidance, earnings
and TP for MDKA, awaiting full FY22 financial release, currently we have buy rating for MDKA at
Rp5,650/share

LPKR FY22 PRE-SALES BELOW TARGET

Lippo Karawaci (LPKR) announced FY22 marketing sales of Rp4.76 tn, equivalent to 92% of the FY22
target and declined 4% YoY. Over 53% of FY22 marketing sales were driven by landed housing
projects targeting first-home owners, which included the Cendana Homes series, Waterfront
Uptown Estates, Holland Village Manado, and residential projects in Tanjung Bunga. There was a
decline in sales of burial plots in Karawang (San Diego Hills) compared to peak sales during the
COVID pandemic in 2021, as well as relatively slower sales for landed residentials due to increases
in inflation and mortgage rates over the past 12 months. In terms of location, Lippo Village remains
the largest contributor with 37%, followed by Lippo Cikarang with 29%. The increased contribution
from Makassar and Others was primarily due to one-off land plot sales. In terms of payment profile
composition, 67% of total marketing sales were financed through mortgages. Excluding non-
residential sales, mortgage utilization for landed housing sales alone reached over 85%.

Comment: LPKR FY22 pre-sales fell 8% below target, hence will reflect to lower earnings in 2024
upwards. The Company set moderate target of Rp4.9 tn for FY23 pre-sales, taking into account
higher interest rates and lower property investment appetite. However we believe upside will
remain attractive, currently we still have BUY rating with 2023F TP of Rp140/sh.

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, February 07, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
JCI : 6,874 or decreased 38 points (- 0.55%)
Comment : The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) decreased 38 points (- 0.55%) to finish at 6,874.
Traded in the range of high/low : 6,925 and 6,836. GOTO, AMRT and BMRI consecutively became
leading movers. The index pauses upside at 6,925 in early session. Acceleration of index decline
after break through the 6,896 level. The
T index losses momentum bullish which indicates that it will
consolidate in the medium term with a rectangle chart pattern. A rectangle exhibits a period of
consolidation or indecision between buyers and sellers as they take turns throwing punches but
neither has dominated. With a bearish candlestick pattern the index trades with a bearish bias, but
finds strong support at 6,815. Watch out for decisive break below for further weakness. Near term
resistance is located at 6,896. Breakout at 6,952 required for further bullish continuation.

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, February 07, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

STOCK OF THE DAY

ASII : Testing support level
ASII fell 0.43% lower and closed at 5,850. The stock
stock continues to trade lower. Technical bias for the
stock is bearish. The stock has formed a bearish candlestick pattern on daily chart, scope for
further weakness. It faces strong support at 5,775. Should the 5,775 level holds, ASII has
opportunity to rebound.
ebound. Near term resistance is seen at 5,875.

CPIN : Chance to rebound

CPIN fell 0.43% lower and closed at 5,800. The stock is extending sideways above daily support at
5,750, bias remains titled towards the upside. Breakout 5,850 is required for upside opportunity
and will take the stock to the next level resistance at 5,975 is possible.

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, February 07, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

EXCL : Chance to rebound

EXCL rose 2.66% higher and closed at 2,300. The stock has bounced off daily support and is
extending gain after a bull candlestick pattern
pattern in the previous day. Technical signals show EXCL
could gain more towards 2,350. Near term support is seen at 2,220. Speculative buy at 2,300 with
stop loss of 2,200 for taking profit of 2,380.

PTBA : Testing support level

PTBA fell 2.10% lower and closed at 3,260. The stock continues to trade lower. Technical bias for
the stock is bearish. The stock has formed a bearish candlestick pattern on daily chart, scope for
further weakness. It faces strong support at 3,190. Should the 3,190 level holds, PTBA PT has
opportunity to rebound. Near term resistance is seen at 3,300.

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, February 07, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

CIPTADANA FIXED INCOME DAILY

CURRENCY TRADING RANGE OF TODAY

USD/Rp: 15,005 – 15,105

INDONESIA GOVERNMENT
AVERAGE DEPOSIT RATE
SECURITIES YIELD
Maturity (yrs) Yield (%) 1M 3M 6M 1YR 2YRS
1 5.89 IDR 3.68 3.87 3.79 3.75 3.48
3 6.17 US$ 1.49 1.51 1.41 1.34
5 6.35
10 6.69 JIBOR (RP) 6.41 6.78 6.89 7.08
15 6.92 JIBOR (USS) 7.08 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A
30 7.09

BASE LENDING RATE EXCHANGE RATE

EXCHANGE RATE % chg.

BI RATE 5.75 1 US$ = IDR 15,055 -1.08
FED FUND RATE 4.75 1 US$ = SGD 1.33 -0.02
LPS INSURED RATE 1 US$ = JPY 132.68 -0.02
IDR 5.25 1 US$ = AUD 0.69 0.07
US$ 1.50 1 US$ = EUR 1.07 0.01

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 DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
Tuesday, February 07, 2023
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA
http://www.ciptadana.com

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Analyst Certification
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variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

Disclaimer
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regard, by accepting this report, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may
be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should
apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these
matters.

The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free.
Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this report constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are
based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of
future results. CIPTADANA SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS
INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY RELIANCE ON THIS REPORT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS
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This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any
transaction. Nor are we acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to you. When making and investment decision, you should determine,
without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these
risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting
this report, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting
advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and
qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and
accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters.

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