Confidence Intervals

Before we begin, let's review parameters and statistics as they are a major component of statistical inference:
Parameters: are fixed values that describe a population ( mean 𝝁 and standard deviation σ) but we rarely know
them because it is often difficult to obtain measures from the entire population.
Statistics: are known values computed from a sample; they are random variables because they differ from
̅ and standard deviation S ).
sample to sample ( mean 𝒙

We use sample data to make generalizations about an unknown population. This part of statistics is called
inferential statistics. The sample data help us to make an estimate for a population. We realize that the point
estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point
estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals.

What is a confidence interval?

Confidence interval: A range computed using sample statistics to estimate an unknown population parameter
with a given level of confidence.

How to Interpret Confidence Intervals

Suppose that a 90% confidence interval states that the population mean is greater than 100 and less than 200.
How would you interpret this statement?
Some people think this means there is a 90% chance that the population mean falls between 100 and 200. This
is incorrect. Like any population parameter, the population mean is a constant, not a random variable. It does not
change. The probability that a constant falls within any given range is always 0.00 or 1.00.
The confidence level describes the uncertainty associated with a sampling method. Suppose we used the
same sampling method to select different samples and to compute a different interval estimate for each sample.
Some interval estimates would include the true population parameter and some would not.
A 90% confidence level means that we would expect 90% of the interval estimates to include the population
parameter; A 95% confidence level means that 95% of the intervals would include the parameter; and so on.

Confidence Interval Data Requirements

To express a confidence interval, you need three pieces of information.
• Confidence level (90% or 95% or 99%)
• Statistic (sample mean)
• Margin of error
Given these inputs, the range of the confidence interval is defined by:
𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒂𝒍 = 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒄 ± 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓.
𝝈
= ̅
𝒙 ± 𝒁𝜶⁄ ( )
𝒏
𝟐 √

1
The confidence level (𝑪𝑳) = 𝟏 − 𝜶 is the area in the middle of the standard normal distribution,
𝜶
where, 𝜶 is the area that is split equally between the two tails. Each of the tails contains an area
𝟐

For example, when

𝜶 𝟎.𝟎𝟓
𝑪𝑳 = 𝟏 − 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟓, ⟹ 𝜶 = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 ⟹ = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟓
𝟐 𝟐

𝑨𝒓𝒆𝒂 𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒗𝒆 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒎𝒊𝒅𝒅𝒍𝒆 𝒕𝒐 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒕 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟓 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟓𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟕𝟓𝟎

Therefore, using our table we get, 𝒁𝜶⁄ = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔

𝟐

Remark:

𝜶
1) If 𝑪𝑳 = 𝟗𝟗 % ⟹ 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 ⟹ = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓 ⟹ 𝑨. 𝑼. 𝑪 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟗𝟓𝟎 ⟹ 𝒁𝜶⁄ = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟕𝟓
𝟐 𝟐

𝜶
2) If 𝑪𝑳 = 𝟗𝟕 % ⟹ 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑 ⟹ 𝟐
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟓 ⟹ 𝑨. 𝑼. 𝑪 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟖𝟓𝟎 ⟹ 𝒁𝜶⁄ = 𝟐. 𝟏𝟕
𝟐

𝜶
3) If 𝑪𝑳 = 𝟗𝟓 % ⟹ 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 ⟹ = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟓 ⟹ 𝑨. 𝑼. 𝑪 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟕𝟓𝟎 ⟹ 𝒁𝜶⁄ = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔
𝟐 𝟐

Example (1): Goodyear Tires Company announced that their new brand of tires has an average lifetime 42 (in
thousands of miles). A consumer research group decided to test this announcement, they selected a random
sample of 36 tires to test, the data from the sample showed that the mean life of tires 41 miles with variance 12.
i) Determine the 99% confidence interval for the mean life of new brand tires.
ii) Does the confidence interval support the announcement of Goodyear Tires Company? Why?
Solution
̅ = 𝟒𝟏 , the size 𝒏 = 𝟑𝟔 and standard deviation 𝝈 ≈ 𝒔 = √𝟏𝟐 = 𝟑. 𝟒𝟔𝟒
i) The sample average lifetime 𝒙
𝝈
̅ ± 𝒁𝜶⁄ ( )
𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒂𝒍 = 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏 ± 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 = 𝒙 𝒏 𝟐 √
2
First, we want to calculate, 𝒁𝜶⁄
𝟐
∵ 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍 𝑪𝑳 = 𝟏 − 𝜶
∴ 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗 = 𝟏 − 𝜶 ⟹ 𝜶 = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏
∴ 𝜶 = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 ⟹ 𝜶𝟐 = 𝟎.𝟎𝟏
𝟐
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓

∵ 𝑨𝒓𝒆𝒂 𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒗𝒆 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝟎 𝒕𝒐 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒕 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 =

𝜶
𝟎. 𝟓 − 𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟓 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟗𝟓𝟎
Therefore, from the table we get, 𝒁𝜶⁄ = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟕𝟓
𝟐
𝝈 𝟑.𝟒𝟔𝟒
∴ 𝑴𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 = 𝒁𝜶⁄ ( 𝒏) = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟕𝟓 × (
𝟐 √ √𝟑𝟔
) = 𝟏. 𝟒𝟖𝟕

𝝈
Therefore, 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒂𝒍 = ̅ ± 𝒁𝜶⁄ ( ) = 𝟒𝟏 ± 𝟏. 𝟒𝟖𝟕 = ( 𝟑𝟗. 𝟓𝟏𝟑
𝒙 , 𝟒𝟐. 𝟒𝟖𝟕 )
𝒏 𝟐 √

ii) The confidence interval supports the announcement of Goodyear Tires Company, because they announced
a value inside the confidence interval.

Example (2): Sony Electronics announced that their new line of televisions will last for 57300 hours. A consumer
research group decided to test this announcement. The group randomly selected 50 televisions to test. The data
from this sample showed that the mean life of television is 57000 hours, with standard deviation of 1200 hours.
i) Determine the 97 % confidence interval for the mean life of television.
ii) Does the confidence interval support the announcement of Sony Electronics? Why?
Solution
̅ = 𝟓𝟕𝟎𝟎𝟎 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠, the size 𝒏 = 𝟓𝟎 and
i) Here, the sample mean 𝒙 S.D 𝝈 ≈ 𝒔 = 𝟏𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔
𝝈
̅ ± 𝒁𝜶⁄ ( )
𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒂𝒍 = 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏 ± 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 = 𝒙 𝒏 𝟐 √
First, we want to calculate, 𝒁𝜶⁄
𝟐
∵ 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍 𝑪𝑳 = 𝟏 − 𝜶
∴ 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕 = 𝟏 − 𝜶 ⟹ 𝜶 = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑
𝜶 𝟎.𝟎𝟑
= = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟓
𝟐 𝟐
∴ 𝑨𝒓𝒆𝒂 𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒗𝒆 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝟎 𝒕𝒐 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒕 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 =
𝜶
𝟎. 𝟓 − 𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟓 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟖𝟓
Therefore, from the table we get, 𝒁𝜶⁄ = 𝟐. 𝟏𝟕
𝟐
𝝈
∴ ̅ ± 𝒁𝜶⁄ ( )
𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒂𝒍 = 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏 ± 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 = 𝒙 𝒏 𝟐 √
𝟏𝟐𝟎𝟎
= 𝟓𝟕𝟎𝟎𝟎 ± 𝟐. 𝟏𝟕 × ( ) = 𝟓𝟕𝟎𝟎𝟎 ± 𝟑𝟔𝟖. 𝟐𝟔
√𝟓𝟎

∴ 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒂𝒍 = ( 𝟓𝟔𝟔𝟑𝟏. 𝟕𝟒 , 𝟓𝟕𝟑𝟔𝟖. 𝟐𝟔)

ii) The confidence interval supports the announcement of Wilson Electronics, because they announced a value
(𝟓𝟕𝟑𝟎𝟎) inside the expected confidence interval.

3
Example (3): LG Electronics announced that the average life of their new production of refrigerators will be 15
years. A consumer research group decided to test this announcement. The group randomly selected a sample of
49 refrigerators to test. The data from this sample showed that the mean life of refrigerator is 14 years with
variance of 16.
i) Determine the 95% confidence interval for the average life of the refrigerator.
ii) Does the confidence interval support the announcement of LG Electronics? Why?
Solution
i) Here, ̅ = 𝟏𝟒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠,
𝒙 𝒏 = 𝟒𝟗 and 𝝈 ≈ 𝒔 = √𝟏𝟔 = 𝟒 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔
Confidence interval is the 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒄 +
𝝈
̅ ± 𝒁𝜶⁄ (
𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 = 𝒙 ).
𝟐 √𝒏
We want to calculate 𝒁𝜶⁄ :
𝟐
∵ 𝑪𝑳 = 𝟏 − 𝜶 ⟹ 𝟎. 𝟗𝟓 = 𝟏 − 𝜶
𝜶
𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 ⟹ = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟓
𝟐
𝑨𝒓𝒆𝒂 𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒗𝒆 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝒛 = 𝟎 𝒕𝒐 𝒛 = 𝒛𝜶⁄ ,
𝟐

= 𝟎. 𝟓 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟕𝟓𝟎 ⟹ 𝒁𝜶⁄ = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔

𝟐
𝝈 𝟒
∴ Confidence interval = 𝒙
̅ ± 𝒁𝜶⁄ ( ) = 𝟏𝟒 ± 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔 × ( ) = 𝟏𝟒 ± 𝟏. 𝟏𝟐
√𝒏 𝟐 √𝟒𝟗

∴ 95% confidence interval for the mean life of television is, ( 𝟏𝟐. 𝟖𝟖 , 𝟏𝟓. 𝟏𝟐)

ii) The confidence interval supports the announcement of LG- Electronics, because they announced a value
inside the confidence interval.

Example (4): We want to estimate the average height of students in a school. The average height of 50 students
that randomly selected adult males is 69 inches lbs. Assume that a standard deviation is 2 inches. Calculate a
95% confidence interval for the population average height.
Solution
̅ = 𝟔𝟗 𝑖𝑛𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑠, the size of the sample 𝒏 = 𝟓𝟎 (large sample n
Here, the sample mean (point estimate) 𝒙
≥ 30) and standard deviation 𝝈 ≈ 𝒔 = 𝟐 𝑖𝑛𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑠 (because the sample is a large).
𝝈
̅ ± 𝒁𝜶⁄ . ( )
Confidence interval = sample mean + margin of error = 𝒙
𝟐 √𝒏

We want to calculate, 𝒁𝜶⁄

𝟐

𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍, 𝑪𝑳 = 𝟏 − 𝜶 ⟹ 𝟎. 𝟗𝟓 = 𝟏 − 𝜶
𝜶 𝟎.𝟎𝟓
⟹ 𝜶 = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 ⟹ 𝟐
= 𝟐
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟓

∴ 𝑨𝒓𝒆𝒂 𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒗𝒆 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝒐 𝒕𝒐 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟓 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟕𝟓𝟎

From the table, we get the corresponding z-score 𝒁𝜶⁄ = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔
𝟐
𝝈 𝟐
∴ 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒂𝒍 = 𝒙
̅ ± 𝒁𝜶⁄ × ( ) == 𝟔𝟗 ± 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔 × (
𝟐 𝒏
) = 𝟔𝟗 ± (𝒐. 𝟓𝟓𝟒)
√ √𝟓𝟎

95% confidence interval for the population average height is (𝟔𝟖. 𝟒𝟒𝟓𝟔 , 𝟔𝟗. 𝟓𝟓𝟒)

4
 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359

0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753

0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141

0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517

0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879

0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224

0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549

0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852

0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133

0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389

1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621

1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830

1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015

1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177

1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319

1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441

1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545

1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633

1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706

1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767

2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817

2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857

2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890

2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916

2.4 0.4918 0.4920 0.4922 0.4925 0.4927 0.4929 0.4931 0.4932 0.4934 0.4936

2.5 0.4938 0.4940 0.4941 0.4943 0.4945 0.4946 0.4948 0.4949 0.4951 0.4952

2.6 0.4953 0.4955 0.4956 0.4957 0.4959 0.4960 0.4961 0.4962 0.4963 0.4964

2.7 0.4965 0.4966 0.4967 0.4968 0.4969 0.4970 0.4971 0.4972 0.4973 0.4974

2.8 0.4974 0.4975 0.4976 0.4977 0.4977 0.4978 0.4979 0.4979 0.4980 0.4981

2.9 0.4981 0.4982 0.4982 0.4983 0.4984 0.4984 0.4985 0.4985 0.4986 0.4986

3.0 0.4987 0.4987 0.4987 0.4988 0.4988 0.4989 0.4989 0.4989 0.4990 0.4990

5
 MSA University Module Title: Probability & Statistics
Faculty of Engineering Module Code: MAT 361

Exercise on Confidence Interval

(1) Suppose we want to estimate the average weight of an adult male in Dekalb County, Georgia. We draw a
random sample of 1,000 men from a population of 1,000,000 men and weigh them. We find that the average
man in our sample weighs 180 pounds, and the standard deviation of the sample is 30 pounds. What is the 95%
confidence interval? (𝐀𝐧𝐬: 𝟏𝟖𝟎 + 𝟏. 𝟖𝟔)

(2) A sample of Alzheimer's patients are tested to assess the amount of time in stage IV sleep. It has been
hypothesized that individuals suffering from Alzheimer's Disease may spend less time per night in the deeper
stages of sleep. Number of minutes spent is Stage IV sleep is recorded for sixty-one patients. The sample
produced a mean of 48 minutes (S=14 minutes) of stage IV sleep over a 24 hour period of time.
i) Compute a 95 % confidence interval for this data.
ii) What does this information tell you about a particular individual's (an Alzheimer's patient) stage IV sleep?

(3) A university wants to know more about the knowledge of students regarding international events. The are
concerned that their students are uninformed in regards to new from other countries. A standardized test is used
to assess student’s knowledge of world events (national reported 𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏 = 𝟔𝟓 , 𝑺 = 𝟓). A sample of 30 students
are tested (𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏 = 𝟓𝟖 , 𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂𝒓𝒅 𝑬𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 = 𝟑. 𝟐). Compute a 99% confidence interval based on this
sample's data. How do these students compare to the national sample?

(4) Wilson Electronics claims that their new line of Plasma televisions will last for 60,000 hours. A consumer
research group decides to test this claim. The group randomly selects 50 televisions to test.
The data from this sample shows that the mean life of television is 57000 hours, with standard deviation of 1200
hours.
i) Determine the 95% confidence interval for the mean life of television. (56667 , 57333)
ii) Does the confidence interval support the claim of Wilson Electronic, explain your answer. (does not)

(5) We want to estimate the average weight for the adult male population. The average weight of 100 randomly
selected adult males is 180 lbs. Assume that a standard deviation is 20 lbs. Compute a 95% confidence interval
for the population average weight.

Dr.M.Said