Research Proposal - Group 4 - Ktee206.1
Research Proposal - Group 4 - Ktee206.1
RESEARCH PROPOSAL
Module: Research methodology and economic forecasting
dividion
Period: 2021-2022
Group 4
Cu Thao Ly 2113150042
Class: KTEE206(GD2-HK1-2223).3
In Vietnam, the large population even adds more weight to the existing problem. In a
report published by the General Statistics Office, during the period between 2009-
2019, the average population growth rate is 1,14%/year. It is inevitable that this
growing population leads to a surge in demand for private vehicles. The Department of
Transportation analyzed that up to December 2021, there were a total of 4,554,5903
vehicles in use in Vietnam’s territory.
In Hanoi, to be specific, the Communist Party Paper (2022) stated that up to November
2022, there were 7,784,657 vehicles, including 1,056,423 cars and 6,545,317
motorbikes in use. With the average growth rates of vehicles at 4-5%/year, the
Department of Transportation forecasts that the issue will surely become more
complex and require ground-breaking solutions.
While the number of research papers on traffic congestion in Vietnam is rising, few
papers are looking at how it affects Foreign Trade University students. Since the
situation of traffic jams in Foreign Trade University is turning into a persisting
problem for several students, it is worth researching the impacts of traffic jams on
them.
The proposal consists of 5 main sections. The following section provides insight into
the literature review and methodology. In the meantime, section 4 discusses the issue
in detail while section 5 is a brief conclusion.
LITERATURE REVIEW
It can be seen that there are a number of preceding studies conducted about how the
FTU students are affected by the occurrence of traffic congestion. In a research report
of The Effects of Traffic to the Academic Performance of Grade 12 ABM Students in
Bestlink College of the Philippines School Year 2018-2019, Jullianne Mari Castulo
and his co-researchers have examined how the traffic problems during rush hour affect
academic performance of the students when it comes to attendance and punctuality.
The group research has utilized the primary data collected from the responded 12-
grade students. The study outcome revealed that the occurrence of traffic blockage has
resulted in the absence and non-participation of the students in attending the class,
handing in assignments; therefore, this led to poor academic performance and lack of
knowledge acquisition.
With regard to the impacts of traffic jams on the FTU students' performance, there is a
few research carried out about the adverse effects of traffic congestion on the students’
academic performance as well as on other aspects of life. Nevertheless, the limitation
of those mentioned research is the lack of suggestion and recommendations with the
aim to figure out the root causes of this worrying issue not only for FTU students but
also for other Vietnam citizens. For the aforementioned reasons, our research has been
studied to examine the impacts of roadblock problems on FTU students’ academic
performance and other social issues; therefore, recommend some facilitates and
feasible measurements to address this alarming case.
METHODOLOGY
1. Quantitative research:
- Identifying factors affecting traffic congestion and traffic congestion in Foreign
Trade University.
- In-depth study on causes and measures that have been implemented.
2. Qualitative research:
- Learn more about traffic congestion by visiting websites, reading articles, and
gathering information.
- Focus group discussion
- Conduct survey on students through Google form, using questionnaires such as:
“What is your means of transport?”, “Have you ever experienced traffic
congestion in Foreign Trade University?”, “How frequently do you experience
congestion a week?”
3. Research subjects
- Primary targeted audiences are students of Foreign Trade University
- The study also aimed at lecturers and teaching assistants of Foreign Trade
University.
4. Research scope:
- Survey on students of Foreign Trade University.
- Time: 12/2022
DISCUSSION
I. THEORETICAL BASIS ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN HANOI
1. Definition:
1.1. Traffic congestion
Traffic congestion is a circumstance that occurs in a transport network when vehicle
traffic increases, usually characterized by factors such as slower traffic speeds, longer
traveling time and a large number of unmovable vehicles. When the demand for traffic
is large enough, the interaction between vehicles will halt the speed of the traffic flow,
causing congestion.
Similarly, when the need to access a certain intersection increases, extreme congestion
begins to occur, causing vehicles to come to a complete stop, unable to move. Traffic
jams make road traffic participants feel uncomfortable, thereby leading to dangerous
decisions while driving vehicles.
According to the assessment of the Hanoi Traffic Police Department, inner city roads
can only meet 30% of the existing vehicles. There are 76 places with high risk of
frequent traffic jams in the city.
Traffic jams often occur at intersections, on two-way roads and often occur during
peak hours such as between 7am - 8.30am and 5pm - 7pm. It is estimated that the city
currently has 207,090 cars of all kinds, 1,921,822 motorbikes, and 1,000,000 bicycles,
not including vehicles registered outside of the province circulating in the city.
Meanwhile, the flow structure of bicycles is 25.3%, for motorbikes is 63.2%, for cars
are 3.6%, for trucks are 1.1% and 6.7% for buses. The statistics partly show mixed
traffic flow, which causes many difficulties for traffic organization and management.
With the current situation, 1km of Hanoi’s roads has to carry over 500 cars and 6,000
motorbikes. With the current growth rate of 12-15%, the congestion will become more
and more serious.
3. Causes:
3.1. Subjective causes:
3.1.1. People’s poor awareness of the traffic rules:
The poor awareness of the driver when driving in traffic is the primary contributor to
traffic congestion. When participating in traffic, every citizen should be more
responsible for the proper observance of the regulations in order not to cause traffic
jams. People break traffic laws on a daily basis. They jostle on the sidewalks and drive
through as soon as there is a small opening. Vehicles jostling and jamming at
intersections and junctions are still a problem in major cities in Vietnam, especially in
Hanoi.
4. Consequences:
4.1. Economic consequences:
- Gasoline consumption while waiting for a traffic jam.
- Every time there is a traffic jam that lasts an average of 45 minutes, the cost is
USD 0.54 per person.
- Traffic jams increase travel time, cause fatigue, reduce labor productivity, and
result in significant economic losses. Normally, a travel time of up to 20-30
minutes (from home to work, school, etc.) is considered acceptable for each
individual. In fact, if the time is delayed for more than 10 minutes, it will cause
fatigue, lower labor productivity, lower working efficiency, harm to businesses,
and harm to the economy. According to the Belarusian Railway University,
extending each bus trip by 10 minutes reduces labor productivity by 2.5 - 4%.
- According to researchers, Hanoi will lose tens of trillions of dollars each year.
4.2. Pollution:
- Environmental pollution is on the rise (air pollution due to dust and emissions
and noise pollution) As society evolves, modes of transportation on the one
hand contribute significantly to urban development, but on the other, they have
negative environmental consequences (air pollution due to dust, emissions and
noise pollution).
- Exhaust gas components include CO, CO2, HC, NOx, SO2, black smoke, lead,
and other particulates.
- CO: incomplete combustion product of fuel - CO2: carbon dioxide Vehicles
emit the most significant greenhouse gas, accounting for 15% of CO2 in the
atmosphere.
- HC: As toxins that cause respiratory disorders, low concentrations can also
cause pleural swelling, bronchial narrowing, eye inflammation, and rhinitis.
- NOx: Vehicles emit approximately 50% of NOx.
- Noise: exceeds the permitted standard 2-3 times; traffic intersections exceed 2 -
5 times.
- Dust concentration: In many places, noise intensity exceeds the allowable
threshold (roughly 70-100 Hecz), causing nervous tension (stress) and constant
fatigue of people.
Current situation
1. Consequences
1.1. Class attendance
- Due to heavy traffic congestion especially in Nguyen Chi Thanh road, Duong
Lang road and Chua Lang road during rush hours, Foreign Trade University
students are usually late for classes. The time period with highest traffic density
are 8:30-9:30 a.m (period 2)
Recognising the severe causes and consequences of traffic congestion, the Department
of Transportation enacted Decree 06 about a program aiming at reducing traffic jams
and ensuring road safety in Hanoi between 2016-2020. After 5 years of implementing
the law, there had been positive changes in the traffic situation. According to Vietnam
Government Portal (2021), the rate between the space for traffic and the space for
residential areas rose from 8,65% in 2015 to 10,07% in 2020. Overall, the city dealt
with 67 traffic hotspots which were once witnessed daily congestion.
The success of this 5 years program has led to the announcement of another 5 years
program for the period 2021-2025. This new program focuses on building synchronous
and intelligent transport in Hanoi, creating changes in traffic order and safety, solving
traffic jams, especially in central areas. The goal is to deal with 7-10 traffic
hotspots/year, minimize traffic congestion, and eliminate situations when vehicles are
congested for over 30 minutes.
The decree proposed a total of 10 solutions to solve the problem. Since 2021, while
some implemented solutions have proved to bring positive effects, others still require
time and detailed plans to come into effect.
Tran Van Hieu, Vu Thanh Huong (2022) claimed that urban traffic played an
important role in urban development and infrastructure should be used to connect a
city’s functions and promote sustainable growth. Hanoi’s People Committee listed
urban planning and updates as one of the main solutions for the problem of traffic
jams. Stations, parking lots and rest stops are being planned ahead for the year 2030.
This solution appears to bring changes. In an article published by Tuoi Tre Newspaper
(2022), Hanoi is now attracting investment for modern and synchronized
infrastructure. By the end of 2022, Hanoi has 11 belts leading to the inner city,
including main belts like Hanoi - Hai Phong, Hanoi - Ha Long, Lang - Hoa Lac - Hoa
Binh, Hanoi - Thai Nguyen, Hanoi - Lang Son, Hanoi - Lao Cai, Phap Van - Cau Gie,
… These belts linking suburbs and urban areas not only provide people with a more
convenient route to commute to work on a daily basis, but also reduce pressure on the
main inner city junctions.
The city is still planning to renew and upgrade hundreds of kilometers of roads,
several bridges across the Red River, Duong River and Da River. Between 2016 and
2020, 100 thousand billion VND were spent each year on traffic infrastructure.
However, the total budget only covered 5-7% of the total cost of investment.
Therefore, in order to witness better improvement, the city should attract more
investors and plan road expansion, as well as new road constructions to avoid traffic
congestion, especially in junctions with high volumes of vehicles.
In the projected plan, 20-26% of urban land should be used for transportation.
However, the rate of transportation land and residential land only increased 0.3% each
year. Thanh Nguyen (2019) pointed out that in Hanoi, approximately 9% of land is
used for transportation. Compared to the expected number, the rate of land used for
transportation is concerning. Low rate of transportation land, along with high
population density explains the persisting traffic jam problem.
In recent years, the city has introduced several new public transport projects. For
instance, Cat Linh - Ha Dong metro is offering service to 22,000-25,000 passengers
everyday. Another metro line, Nhon - Hoang Mai, a highlight of the city’s public
transportation, will be in use by the end of 2022. Compared to the year 2015 with only
78 bus routes, there were 98 bus routes in 2020, meaning a 20% increase in bus
routes.
Nevertheless, while the city expected to supply 70% of the need for public
transportation, up to now, Hanoi can only satisfy 15% of the citizens' needs. This
proves that the solution is effective, yet further efforts need to be made to keep up with
the growing demand of people.
Recommendation
Encourage students to ride the bus: The use of buses to move around will help limit
traffic jams on the roads. As well as reducing vehicles participating in traffic on the
road to limit air pollution, ...
- Strength:
Can carry many people
Reduce the area occupied by the road surface
Save on commuting costs
- Weakness:
Jostling and shoving on the bus
The number of people on the car is too crowded -> causing disorder
Occurrence of pickpockets
Waste of time waiting for the bus
It can be asserted that the traffic jam at Foreign Trade University is increasingly
urgent. Traffic congestion has a direct impact on the physical and mental health of
students, teachers as well as the entire surrounding area's citizens, urban security and
traffic situation. In that relationship, the factor that should be to blame the most for the
circumstance is the people . Every action of any individual will have influence on the
current status. It is due to the subjectivity, arbitrariness and bad consciousness that the
traffic jam in the College campus sometimes is alarming. Therefore, it is indispensable
that people must take their behaviors seriously into account and alter them to be
appropriate and civilized in order to minimize those unexpected consequences for the
benefit of the whole.
Thus, the essay "Traffic congestion in FTU" summarizes the current situation and
causes of traffic jams in Hanoi, and at the same time applies it to the current state of
Foreign Trade University. The topic has high practical significance, at the same time is
close to the Foreign Trade University students, giving readers a multi-dimensional
view of a persistent problem that the University is facing as well as proposing
solutions to improve this situation.