5.2. Chance and Assignable Causes of Quality Variation 189 5.2_Chance and Assignable Causes of Quality Variation In any production process, regardless of how well designed or carefully maintained it is, a stain amount of inherent or natural variability will always exist. This natural variability or sackground noise" is the cumulative effect of many small, essentially unavoidable causes. In the framework of statistical quality control, this natural variability is often called a “stable system of chance causes.” A process that is operating with only chance causes of variation present is said to be in statistical control. In other words, the chance causes are an inherent part of the process. Other kinds of variability may occasionally be present in the output of a process. This variability in key quality characteristics usually atises from three sources: improperly adjusted or controlled machines, operator errors, or defective raw material. Such variability is generally large when compared to the background noise, and it usually represents an unac- ceptable level of process performance, We refer to these sources of variability that are not part of the chance cause pattern as assignable causes of variation. A process that is operating in the presence of assignable causes is said to be an out-of-control process.’ ‘These chance and assignable causes of variation are illustrated in Figure 5.1. Until time 1 the process shown in this figure is in control; that is, only chance causes of variation are present. As a result, both the mean and standard deviation of the process are at their in control values (say, fig and 6). At time r,, an assignable cause occurs, As shown in Figure $.1, the effect of this assignable cause is to shift the process mean to a new value #4; > Hy. At time fa, another assignable cause occurs, resulting in 4 = fl, but now the process standard deviation has shifted to larger value G, > 0p. At time fs there is another assignable cause pre~ sent, resulting in both the process mean and standard deviation taking on out-of-control values. From time f; forward, the presence of assignable causes has resulted in an out-of-control process, Processes will often operate in the in-control state for relatively long periods of time. However, no process is truly stable forever, and, eventually, assignable causes will occur, seemingly at random, resulting in a shift to an out-of-control state where a larger proportion of the process output does not conform to requirements. For example, note from Figure 5.1 that when the process is in control, most of the production will fall between the lower and upper specification limits (LSL and USL, respectively). When the process is out of control, higher proportion of the process lies outside of these specifications. A major objective of statistical process control is to quickly detect the occurrence of, assignable causes of process shifts so that investigation of the process and corrective action ‘may be undertaken before many nonconforming units are manufactured. The control chart is an on-line process-monitoring technique widely used for this purpose. Control charts may also be used to estimate the parameters of a production process, and, through this informa tion, to determine process capability. The control chart may also provide information useful in improving the process. Finally, remember that the eventual goal of statistical process con- trol is the elimination of variability in the process. It may not be possible to completely climinate variability, but the control chart is an effective tool in reducing variability as much as possible. We now present the statistical concepts that form the basis of control charts Chapters 6 and 7 develop the details of construction and use of the standard types of con- trol charts The terminology Chance aad assignable causes was developed by ShewTar Today, some wiles we We We ology ommon cause insta of chance cause abd special cause instead of assignable cause.190 Chapters = Methods and Philosophy of Statistical Process Control Tine. Assgnasie cause tee 'Spresnt process cuter cont Assgrale cause wo outot con. Asignadie cause one ‘Sete pocs Diy chance causes of ‘aration resent Process quality characterise, x MFIGURE 5.1 Chance and asignable causes of variation. 5.3 _ Statistical Basis of the Control Chart 5.3.1 Basic Principles A typical control chart is shown in Figure 5.2. The control chart is a graphical display of ‘a quality characteristic that has been measured or computed from a sample versus the sam- ple number or time, The chart contains a center line that represents the average value of the quality characteristic corresponding to the in-control state. (That is, only chance ‘causes are present.) Two other horizontal lines, called the upper control limit (UCL) and the lower control limit (LCL), are also shown on the chart. These control limits are cho- sen so that if the process is in control, nearly all of the sample points will fall between them, As long as the points plot within the control limits, the process is assumed to be in control, and no action is necessary. However, a point that plots outside of the control limits is interpreted as evidence that the process is out of control, and investigation and correc~ tive action are required to find and eliminate the assignable cause or causes responsible for this behavior. It is customary to connect the sample points on the control chart with [anal Ay Lav Semple numbers tine FIGURE 5.2 Atypical conto chan,5.3. Statistical Basis of the Control Chart 191. straight-line segments, so that it is easier to visualize how the sequence of points has evolved over time. Even if all the points plot inside the control limits, if they behave in a systematic or non random manner, then this could be an indication that the process is out of control. For exam- ple, if 18 of the last 20 points plotted above the center line but below the upper contro limit and only two of these points plotted below the center line but above the lower control limit, ‘we would be very suspicious that something was wrong. If the process is in control, all the plotted points should have an essentially random pattern. Methods for looking for sequences ‘or noneandom patterns can be applied to control charts as an aid in detecting out-of-control conditions. Usually, there is a reason why a particular nonrandom pattern appears on a con- trol chart, and if it can be found and eliminated, process performance can be improved. This topic is discussed further in Sections 5.3.5 and 6.2.4 There is a close connection between control charts and hypothesis testing, To illustrate this connection, suppose that the vertical axis in Figure 5.2 is the sample average ¥. Now, if the current value of ¥ plots between the control limits, we conclude that the process mean is in control; that is, itis equal to the value pip, On the other hand, if ¥ exceeds either control limit, we conclude that the process mean is out of control; that is, it is equal to some value 1 # Hp. Ina sense, then, the control chart is a test of the hypothesis that the process is in a state of statistical control. A point plotting within the control limits is equivalent to failing to reject the hypothesis of statistical control, and a point plotting outside the control limits is equivalent to rejecting the hypothesis of statistical control The hypothesis testing framework is useful in many ways, but there are some differences in viewpoint between control charts and hypothesis tess, For example, when testing statistical bypotheses, we usually check the validity of assumptions, whereas control charts are used to detect departures from an assumed state of statistical control. In general, we should not worry too much about assumptions such asthe form of the distribution ot independence when we are applying control charts to a process to reduce variability and achieve statistical conto, Furthermore, an assignable cause can result in many different types of shifts in the process parameters. For example, the mean could shift instantaneously to a new value and remain there (this is sometimes called a sustained shift); or it could shift abruptly; but the assignable cause could be short-lived and the mean could then retum {0 its nominal or in-control value; or the assignable cause could result in a steady drift or wend in the value of the mean. Only the sus- tained shift fits nicely within the usual statistical hypothesis testing model (One place where the hypothesis testing framework is useful is in analyzing the perfor- ‘mance of a control chart. For example, we may think of the probability of type I error of the control chart (concluding the process is out of control when it is really in control) and the probability of type Il error of the control chart (concluding the process is in control when it is really out of control) Its occasionally helpful to use the operating-characteristic curve of ‘a control chart to display its probability of type II error. This would be an indication of the ability of the control chart to detect process shifts of different magnitudes. This can be of value in determining which type of control chart to apply in certain situations. For more dis- cussion of hypothesis testing, the role of statistical theory, and control charts, see Woodall (2000) To illustrate the preceding ideas, we give an example of a control chart. In semicondue- ‘tor manufacturing, an important fabrication step is photolithography, in which a light-sensitive photoresist material is applied to the silicon wafer, the circuit pattern is exposed on the resist typically through the use of high-intensity UV light, and the unwanted resist material is removed through a developing process. After the resist pattern is defined, the underlying ‘material is removed by either wet chemical or plasma etching. It is fairly typical to follow development with a hard-bake process to increase resist adherence and etch resistance. An important quality characteristic in hard bake isthe flow width of the resist, a measure of how192 Chapter § = Methods and Philosophy of Statistical Process Control PnM.ArA, | Phname YY 1234567 8 91O1I7ITAISIOITIBIS® MFIGUAE 5.9 xcontchast for Sample ruber, aw width, ‘much it expands due to the baking process, Suppose that flow width ean be controlled at ‘mean of 1.5 microns, and itis known that the standard deviation of flow width is 0.15 microns, ‘A control chart for the average flow width is shown in Figure 5.3. Every hour, a sample of five wafers is taken, the average flow width (2) computed, and ¥ plotted on the chart, Because this control chart utilizes the sample average ¥ to monitor the process mean, itis usually called an ¥ control chart, Note that all ofthe plotted points Fall inside the control limits, so the chart indicates that the process is considered to be in statistical control ‘To assist in understanding the statistical basis of this contzol chart, consider how the control limits were determined, The process mean is 1,5 microns, and the process standard deviation is = 0.15 microns. Now if samples of size n= 5 are taken, the standard deviation of the sample average Fis o,= 2-215 - 0.0671 aoe Therefore, ifthe process is in control with a mean flow width of 1.5 microns, then by using the central limit theorem to assume that T is approximately normally distributed, we would expect 100(1 ~ cr )% of the sample means ¥ to fall between 1.5 + Zy(0.0671) and 1.5 — Zar2 (0.0671). We will arbitrarily choose the constant Zs» to be 3, so that the upper and lower con trol limits become UCL =1.5+340.0671)=1.7013 and LCL = 1.5~3(0.0671) =1.2987 ‘as shown on the control chart. These are typically called three-sigma control limits.’ The ‘width of the control limits is inversely proportional to the sample size n for a given multiple of sigma. Note that choosing the control limits is equivalent to setting up the critical region for testing the hypothesis Ho: w=15 My wels where @=0.15 is known, Essentially, the control chart tests this hypothesis repeatedly at dif- ferent points in time. The situation is illustrated graphically in Figure 5.4 "ot aa hat iga ersto the andr Govan ft Hai plod on the Saat aon of he geaity characterise5.3 Statistical Basis of the Control Chart 193, nesuemerts Distribution wth ae ce, aos and {Acer = 12 otter Doha fsa MFIGURE 5.4 low the control cast works ‘We may give a general model for a control chart. Let w be a sample statistic that mea- sures some quality characteristic of interest, and suppose that the mean of w is fly and the standard deviation of w is o,,..Then the center Tine, the upper control limit, and the lower con- trol limit become UCL =u, +Lo,, Center line =, 6) LCL =p, -Lo, ‘where L isthe “distance” of the control limits from the center line, expressed in standard devia- tion units, This general theory of control charts was first proposed by Walter A. Shewhart, and control charts developed according to these principles are often called Shewhart control charts. ‘The control chart is a device for describing in a precise manner exactly what is meant by statistical control; as such, it may be used in a variety of ways. In many applications, itis used for on-line process monitoring or surveillance. That is, sample data are collected and used to construct the control chart, and if the sample values of ¥ (say) fall within the control limits and do not exhibit any systematic pattern, we say the process is in control atthe level indicated by the chart. Note that we may be interested here in determining both whether the past data came from a process that was in control and whether future samples from this process indicate statistical control, ‘The most important use of @ control chart is to improve the process. We have found that, generally, 1. Most processes do not operate ina state of statistical control, and 2. Consequently, the routine and attentive use of control charts will assis in identifying assignable causes. If these causes can be eliminated from the process, variability will be reduced and the process will be improved. ‘This process improvement activity using the control charts illustrated in Figure 5.5. Note that 3. The control chart will only detect assignable causes. Management, operator, and engi ncering action will usually be necessary to eliminate the assignable causes,