CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY

JOINT, MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

1) Given the following table of joint probabilities, calculate the marginal probabilities.

A1 A2 A3
B1 0.1 0.3 0.2
B2 0.2 0.1 0.1

2) Calculate the marginal probabilities from the following frequency table.

A1 A2
B1 5 10
B2 10 15

3) Refer to Exercise 2.
a) Determine P(A1|B1).
b) Determine P(A2|B1).
c) Did your answers to parts (a) and (b) sum to 1? Is this a coincidence? Explain.

4) Refer to Exercise 2. Calculate the following probabilities.

a) Determine P(A1|B2).
b) Determine P(B2|A1).
c) Did you expect the answers to parts (a) and (b) to be reciprocals? In other word,
did you expect that P(A1|B2) = 1/ P(B2|A1)? Why is this impossible (unless both
probabilities are 1)?

5) Are the events in Exercise 2 independent? Explain.

6) Refer to Exercise 2. Compute the following.

a) P(A1 or B1)
b) P(A1 or B2)
c) P(A1 or A2)

7) Suppose that you have been given the following joint probabilities. Are the events
independent? Explain

A1 A2
B1 0.20 0.60
B2 0.05 0.15
CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY
JOINT, MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
8) Determine whether the events are independent from the following joint probabilities.

A1 A2
B1 4 3
B2 12 1

9) Discrimination in the workplace is illegal, and companies that discriminate are often
sued. The female instructors at a large university recently lodged a complaint about
the most recent round of promotions from assistant professor to associate professor.
An analysis of the relationship between gender and promotion produced the
following joint probabilities.

Promoted Not Promoted

Female 0.03 0.12
Male 0.17 0.68

a) What is the rate of promotion among female assistant professors?

b) What is the rate of promotion among male assistant professors?
c) Is it reasonable to accuse the university of gender bias?

10) The following table lists the probabilities of unemployed females and males and their
educational attainment.

Female Male
Less than high school 0.077 0.110
High school graduate 0.154 0.201
Some college or university – no degree 0.141 0.129
College or university graduate 0.092 0.096

a) If one unemployed person is selected at random, what is the probability that

person did not finish high school?

b) If one unemployed female is selected at random, what is the probability that she
has a college or university degree?

c) If an unemployed high school graduate is selected at random, what is the

probability that he is a male?
CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY
JOINT, MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
11) Refer to Exercise in class 4 (20th slide) in Probability presentation. Are smoking and
lung disease among 60 to 65 years old men related?

12) The method of instruction in college and university applied statistics courses in
changing. Historically, most courses were taught with an emphasis on manual
calculation. The alternative is to employ a computer and a software package to
perform the calculations. An analysis of applied statistics courses investigated
whether the instructor’s educational background is primarily mathematics (or
statistics) or some other field. The result of this analysis is the accompanying table of
joint probabilities.

Statistics Course
Statistics Course
Employs
Emphasizes Manual
Computer and
Calculations
Software
Mathematics or
0.23 0.36
Statistics education
Other Education 0.11 0.30

a) What is the probability that a randomly selected applied statistics course

instructor whose education was in statistics emphasizes manual calculation?
b) What proportion of applied statistics courses employ a computer and software?
c) Are the educational background of the instructor and the way his or her course is
taught independent?

13) To determine whether drinking alcoholic beverages has an effect on the bacteria that
cause ulcers, researchers developed the following table of joint probabilities.

Number of Alcoholic Drinks per

Ulcer No Ulcer
Day
None 0.01 0.22
One 0.03 0.19
Two 0.03 0.32
More than two 0.04 0.16

a) What proportion of people have ulcers?

b) What is the probability that a teetotaller (no alcoholic beverages) develops an
ulcer?
c) What is the probability that someone who has an ulcer does not drink alcohol?
d) What is the probability that someone who has an ulcer drinks alcohol?
CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY
JOINT, MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
14) An analysis of fired or laid-off workers, their age, and the reasons for their departure
produced the following table of joint probabilities.

Age Category
Reason for job 55 - 64 65 and
20 - 24 25 - 54
loss older
Plant or
company closed 0.015 0.320 0.089 0.029
or moved
Insufficient work 0.014 0.180 0.034 0.011
Position or shift
a) 0.006 0.214 0.071 0.016
abolished
b)

a) What is the probability that a 25 – 54 year old employee was laid off or fired
because of insufficient work?
b) What proportion of laid off or fired workers is age 65 and older?
c) What is the probability that a laid off or fired worker because the plant or
company closed is 65 or older?

15) Many critics of television claim that there is too much violence and that it has a
negative effect on society. There may also be a negative effect on advertisers. To
examine this issue, researches developed two versions of a cops-and-robbers made-
for-television movie. One version depicted several violent crimes, and the other
removed these scenes. In the middle of the movie, one 60 second commercial was
shown advertising a new product and brand name. At the end of the movie, viewers
were asked to name the brand. After observing the results, the researchers produced
the following table of joint probabilities.

Watch violent movie Watch nonviolent movie

Remember the brand
0.15 0.18
name
Do not remember the
0.35 0.32
brand name

a) What proportion of viewers remember the brand name?

b) What proportion of viewers who watch the violent movie remember the brand
name?
c) Does watching a violent movie affect whether the viewer will remember the
brand name? Explain.
CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY
JOINT, MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
16) Is there a relationship between the male hormone testosterone and criminal
behaviour? To answer this question, medical researchers measured the testosterone
level of penitentiary inmates and recorded whether they were convinced of murder.
After analysing the results, the researchers produced the following table of joint
probabilities.

Testosterone Level Murderer Other Felon

Above average 0.27 0.24
Below average 0.21 0.28

a) What proportion of murderers have above-average testosterone levels?

b) Are levels of testosterone and the crime committed independent? Explain.

17) The issue of health care coverage in the United States is becoming a critical issue in
American politics. A large-scale study was undertaken to determine who is and is
not covered. From this study, the following table of joint probabilities was produced.

Does not have health

Age category Has health insurance
insurance
25 – 34 0.167 0.085
35 – 44 0.209 0.061
45 – 54 0.225 0.049
55 – 64 0.177 0.026

a) P(Person has health insurance)

b) P(Person 55-64 has no health insurance)
c) P(Person without health insurance is between 25 and 34 years old)

18) Violent crime in many American schools is an unfortunate fact of life. An analysis of
schools and violent crime yielded the table of joint probabilities shown next.

Violent crime committed No violent crime

Level
this year committed
Primary 0.393 0.191
Middle 0.176 0.010
High School 0.134 0.007
Combined 0.074 0.015

If one school is randomly selected find the following probabilities.

a) Probability of violent crime during the year in a primary school.
b) Probability of no violent crime during the year
CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY
JOINT, MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
19) Refer to Exercise 18. A similar analysis produced these joints probabilities.

Violent crime committed No violent crime

Enrollment
this year committed
Less than 300 0.393 0.191
300 and 499 0.176 0.010
High 0.134 0.007
Combined 0.074 0.015

a) What is the probability that a school with an enrolment of less than 300 had
violent crime during the year?
b) What is the probability that a school that has violent crime had an enrolment of
less than 300.

20) A firm has classified its customers in two ways:

(1) According to whether the account is overdue
(2) Whether the account is new (less than 12 months) or old.

An analysis of the firm’s records provided the input for the following table of joint
probabilities.

Overdue Not overdue

New 0.06 0.13
Old 0.52 0.29

One account is randomly selected.

a) If the account is overdue, what is the probability that it is new?

b) If the account is new, what is the probability that it is overdue?
c) Is the age of the account related to whether it is overdue? Explain.
CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY
JOINT, MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
ANSWERS

1) P(A1)=0.3, P(A2)=0.4, P(A3)=0.3, P(B1)=0.6, P(B2)=0.4

2) P(A1)=0.375, P(A2)=0.625, P(B1)=0.375, P(B2)=0.625

3)
a) 0.33
b) 0.67
c) Yes. No, because
P( A1 and B1 ) P( A2 and B1 ) P( B1 )
P( A1 | B1 )  P( A2 | B1 )    1
P( B1 ) P( B1 ) P( B1 )

4)
a) 0.4
b) 0.67
c) No, because
P( A1 and B2 )
P( A1 | B2 ) 
P( B2 )

1 P( A1 )

P( B2 | A1 ) P( B2 and A1 )

1
 P( A1 | B2 ) 
P( B2 | A1 )

5) Dependent

6)
a) 0.625
b) 0.75
c) 1

7) Independent

8) Dependent
CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY
JOINT, MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
9)
a) 0.2
b) 0.2
c) Not reasonable, because a) = b)

10)
a) 0.187
b) 0.2
c) 0.57

11) Related

12)
a) 0.39
b) 0.66
c) Dependent

13)
a) 0.11
b) 0.04
c) 0.09
d) 0.91

14)
a) 0.25
b) 0.056
c) 0.06

15)
a) 0.33
b) 0.3
c) Yes, will affect.

16)
a) 0.56
b) Dependent

17)
a) 0.778
b) 0.13
c) 0.38
CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY
JOINT, MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
18)
a) 0.51
b) 0.223

19)
a) 0.67
b) 0.51

20)
a) 0.10
b) 0.32
c) Yes, related.