Startup-Lecture 3
Startup-Lecture 3
is that when you have to give advice to people you can ask
yourself, "what would I tell my own kids?", and actually you'll
find this really focuses you. So even though my kids are
little, my two year old today, when asked what he'll be after
two, said "a bat." The correct answer was three, but "a bat"
is so much more interesting. So even though my kids are
little, I already know what I would tell them about startups, if
they were in college, so that is what I'm going to tell
you. You're literally going to get what I would tell my own
kids
, this is an area where you cannot trust your intuition all the
time. It's like skiing in that way - any of you guys learn to ski
as adults?
. You don't need people to give you advice that does not
surprise you. If founders' existing intuition gave them the
right answers, they would not need us.
That's why there are a lot of ski instructors, and not many
running instructors; you don't see those words
together, "running instructor,"
Just pick people the way you would pick people if you were
picking friends. This is one of those rare cases where it
works to be self indulgent. Work with people you would
generally like and respect and that you have known long
enough to be sure about because there are a lot of people
who are really good at seeming likable for a while
. Just wait till your interests are opposed and then you’ll see.
By the way that's the only use of that swear word, except
for the initial one, that was involuntary and I did check with
Sam if it would be okay; he said he had done it several
times, I mean use the word.
Then they ask okay, so what are the tricks for growing fast,
and this is exacerbated by the existence of this term,
"Growth Hacks." Whenever you hear somebody talk about
Growth Hacks, just mentally translate it in your mind
to "bullshit,"
So, stop looking for the trick. There are tricks in startups, as
there are in any domain, but they are an order of magnitude
less important than solving the real problem. Someone who
knows zero about fundraising, but has made something
users really love, will have an easier time raising money
than someone who knows every trick in the book, but has a
flat usage graph.
Though, in a sense, it's bad news that gaming the system
stops working now, in the sense that you're deprived of your
most powerful weapons and, after all, you spent twenty
years mastering them. I find it very exciting that there even
exist parts of the world where gaming the system is not how
Which has this strange side effect that the difficulty of being
a successful startup founder is concealed from almost
everyone who has done it. People who win the one-hundred
meter in the Olympics, you walk up to them and they're out
of breath. Larry Page is doing that too, but you never get to
see it.
after, many of which will make you a better parent when you
do have kids. In rich countries
for a while and I'm sure you are all intimately familiar with
that procedure
What you need to know are the needs of your own users.
You can't learn those until you actually start the company,
which means that starting a startup is something you can
intrinsically only learn by doing it. You can't do that in college
for the reason I just explained. Startups take over your
entire life. If you start a startup in college, if you start a
startup as a student, you can't start a startup as a student
because if you start a startup you’re not a student anymore.
You may be nominally a student but you won't even be that
for very much longer. Given this dichotomy: which of the two
paths should you take?
There are things that you can do in your early twenties that
you cannot do as well before or after. Like plunge deeply
into projects on a whim that seem like they will have no pay
off. Travel super cheaply with no sense of a deadline. In fact
they are really isomorphic shapes in different domains.
The answer is the fifth counter intuitive point. You can't tell.
Your life so far has given you some idea of what your
prospects might be if you wanted to become a
mathematician or a professional football player. Boy, it’s not
every audience you can say that to.
Unless you have had a very strange life indeed you have
not done much that’s like starting a startup. Meaning starting
a startup will change you a lot if it works out. So what you’re
trying to estimate is not just what you are, but what you
could become. And who can do that? Well, not me. for the
last nine years it was my job to try to guess (I wrote "predict"
in here and it came out as "guess"—that’s a very informative
Freudian slip
Unless you are one of those people who gets off on doing
things you're afraid of
not only bad but bad and plausible sounding. Meaning you
and everybody else will be fooled by them. You'll waste a lot
of time before realizing they're no good. The way to come
up with good startup ideas is to take a step back. Instead of
trying to make a conscious effort to think of startup ideas,
turn your brain into the type that has startup ideas
unconsciously. In fact, so unconsciously that you don't even
realize at first that they're startup ideas.
How do you turn your mind into the kind that has startup
ideas unconsciously? One, learn about a lot of things that
matter. Two, work on problems that interest you. Three, with
people you like and or respect. That's the third part
incidentally, is how you get cofounders at the same time as
the idea. The first time I wrote that paragraph, instead of
learn a lot about things that matter, I wrote become good at
some technology. But that prescription is too narrow.
What was special about Brain Chesky and Joe Gebbia from
Airbnb was not that they were experts in technology. They
went to art school, they were experts in design. Perhaps
more importantly they were really good at organizing people
in getting projects done. So you don't have to work on
technology per se, so long as you work on things that
stretch you.
To, as Paul Buchheit put it, "Live in the future." And when
you get there, ideas that seem uncannily prescient to other
people will seem obvious to you. You may not realize they're
start up ideas, but you will know they are something that
ought to exist.
You may not be successful but you will learn faster if you
just do it. Business schools are trying really hard to do this.
They were designed to train the officer core of large
companies, which is what business seemed to be back
when it was a choice to be either the officer core of large
companies or Joe's Shoe Store.
Then there was this new thing, Apple, that started as small
as Joe's Shoe Store and turns into this giant mega company
but they were not designed for that world they are good at
what they’re good at. They should just do that and screw
this whole entrepreneurship thing.
A: In the case were you are doing something were you need
some super advanced technical thing and there is
some boffin that knows this thing and no one else in this
world including on how to wipe his mouth. It may be to your
advantage to hire said boffin
and wipe his mouth for him. As a general rule you want
people who are self motivated early on they should just be
like founders.
I was there for that at the epicenter of it all. That is not what
is happening today. Prices are high, valuations are high, but
valuations being high does not mean a bubble. Every
commodity has prices that go up and down in some sort of
sine wave. Definitely prices are high. We tell people if you
raise money, don't think the next time you raise money it’s
going to be so easy, who knows maybe between now and
then the Chinese economy will have exploded then there's a
giant disaster recession. Assume the worst. But bubble? No.
...
My god I've just spent all day working on this thing that’s
supposed to be a side project, I am going to fail all of my
classes what am I going to do, right. Then maybe it’s turning
into a startup.
You sir have not done the readings, you are busted.
Because there are four, I wrote a whole essay answered
that question and that is to do things that don't scale. Just
go read that, because I can't remember everything I said.
It's about exactly that problem.