1

THE THREAT OF
TRANSNATIONAL
ORGANIZED CRIME

A global threat assessment

THE THREAT OF Convention are their profit-driven 1
nature and the seriousness of the
TRANSNATIONAL offences they commit.
ORGANIZED CRIME
The Convention covers only
What do we mean by “transnational organized transnational crimes, but “transnational”
crime”? is similarly cast broadly. It covers not
only offences committed in more than
The term “organized crime” appears to have emerged in one state, but also those that take place
Chicago in 1919,1 and the term retains undertones of the in one state but are planned or
bootlegging gangs prevalent during that era. But the controlled in another. Also included are
phenomenon of organized criminal activity far pre-dates crimes in one state committed by
this coinage and its manifestations have developed groups that operate in more than one
considerably since that time. Depending on the definition, state, and crimes committed in one state
offences that could be classed as organized crime have that impact on other states.
always been with us, but it was only recently that the
nations of the world began to compare notes and The implied definition of “transnational
collaborate on a collective response. organized crime” encompasses virtually
all profit-motivated criminal activities
Although the development of multilateral agreements to with international implications. This
control the transnational drug trade began a century ago, broad definition takes account of the
and a number of international instruments to address certain global complexity of the issue and
offences have been in existence for some time, there was allows cooperation on the widest
not, until recently, an agreement on how transnational possible range of common concerns, but
organized crime should be addressed. The rapid growth in leaves the exact subject matter rather
the scale and scope of the problem in the post-Cold War vague. A better idea of the offences
world led to the passage of the United Nations Convention intended is provided in the attached
against Transnational Organized Crime, which came into Protocols, which relate to specific
effect in late 2003. crimes: trafficking in persons,
Remarkably, the Convention contains no precise definition smuggling of migrants and firearms
of “transnational organized crime,” nor does it contain a list trafficking. These issues – which
of the kinds of crimes that might fall under this heading. typically involve countries of origin,
This is not a problem unique to the Convention – as noted transit and destination – are areas where
above, there is no consensus definition of organized crime international cooperation is essential,
among either practitioners or theoreticians. A very wide since it is beyond the capacity of any
range of criminal activities can be conducted single state to take comprehensive
transnationally in an organized fashion, and new forms of action to tackle the problem.
crime emerge constantly as global and local conditions
change over time. In order to accommodate this complexity, What do we know about it?
a precise definition was omitted. Unlike the “conventional” crimes
Instead, the Convention defines “organized criminal group.” (murder, rape, robbery et cetera),
This is needed because the Convention requires parties to citizens rarely approach the police with
criminalize participation in an organized criminal group.2 complaints about organized crime.
But the purpose of the Convention is to “prevent and Many of the offences are “victimless”,
combat transnational organized crime”, not organized crime in the sense that none of the parties
groups. Attacking the groups is just one tactic toward this participating has any interest in bringing
end. Under the Convention, an “organized criminal group” the matter to the attention of the police.
is: Even when there is a clear victim, this
person may be reluctant to report for
s a group of three or more persons that was not fear of reprisals. Further, to sell
randomly formed; s existing for a contraband or illicit services, criminal
period of time; s acting in concert with markets have to be open enough to
the aim of committing at attract customers, and to operate in this
least one crime punishable by at least four years way suggests some degree of tolerance
incarceration; on behalf of the authorities. Corruption
s in order to obtain, directly or indirectly, a is often implicit, and members of the
financial or other material benefit. public may be left with the impression
that complaints would be useless. Why
Since most “groups” of any sort contain inform the police about businesses
three or more people working in concert operating in plain sight?
and most exist for a period of time, the
true defining characteristics of Consequently, most organized criminal
organized crime groups under the activity comes to the attention of the
police only when they take the pains to
Case studies of transnational threats 25
 THE THREAT OF TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
But there remain many gaps in our
knowledge of the drug markets.
proactively investigate it. The ability to Aggregated national seizure figures say
detect organized crime is contingent on very little about the nature of the
a police force with the resources to take trafficking: the who, what, where and
on this additional work, beyond the how of smuggling drugs. For this, more
considerable case load involved in research and detailed reports of
responding to citizen complaints. It individual seizures and arrests are
also requires a police force with the needed. Under the drug Conventions,
skills to conduct long-term, often States parties are obligated to send to
clandestine, investigations. And it UNODC details of specific seizures
requires a police force able to resist the which are deemed important because
corrupting influence of organized crime they throw light on the sources from
groups, whose resources may far which drugs are obtained, the
exceed those of law enforcement. In quantities involved, the methods
many parts of the world, one or more employed by illicit traffickers or
of these elements is missing, so very because they illustrate new trends.3
little organized crime activity is These details are consolidated in the
registered. UNODC Individual Seizures Database.
Some countries go beyond the
Even in countries with plenty of requirements of the Conventions and
capacity, the attention given to any send complete details of all drug
given area of organized crime differs. seizures above a threshold amount,4 but
The definitions of crime can also vary too few regularly comply with this
based on local values. As a result, the obligation for these data to provide a
criminal justice statistics may reflect comprehensive global picture.
political priorities more than the state
of the underlying problem. Less is known about the scale and nature of human
trafficking. UNODC recently spearheaded the UN.GIFT
Of all the areas under consideration, the project, which, among other things, gathered data from 155
most is known about drug trafficking. countries and territories on human trafficking victims and
UNODC and concerned governments perpetrators.5 The amount and reliability of this information
have conducted surveys of the major varied greatly between countries, however, and some
cultivation areas for coca bush and important countries did not participate. Most importantly, it
opium poppy for many years, and so is difficult to say what share of the victims are detected and
estimates can be made with some whether these people are representative of the market as a
precision as to how much cocaine and whole. It remains likely that law enforcement is just
heroin are being produced. Many skimming the surface in many parts of the world. And,
countries submit their seizure data to unfortunately, the UN.GIFT report was a one-off
UNODC, and most of the main assessment; a mechanism for collecting these data on a
destination countries have survey data regular basis is not yet available.
on the size of the drug-using
population. Supply, demand and Transnational firearms trafficking presents even greater
seizures can be triangulated to give a obstacles, since the Convention does not provide for
more reliable picture than any single international seizure data pooling.6 Even groups that have
data source could generate. been involved in monitoring the small arms situation for
years have trouble quantifying the extent of transnational
As a result, some trends can be tracked trafficking. When large seizures are made, it is difficult to
with considerable confidence. It is distinguish firearms that have been trafficked from those
clear, for example, that longterm that have been legally imported and then diverted to the
declining demand for cocaine in the illicit market domestically.
United States and rapidly growing
demand for it in Europe have For the emerging issues, the process of gathering
reconfigured global drug markets. information is at its earliest stages. Most information
Between 2004 and 2008, West Africa remains anecdotal. Some of these areas, however, touch on
suddenly became an important transit well-documented aspects of the licit economy, such as the
area for the drug in a way never seen smuggling of counterfeit goods and environmental
before. Also novel is the growing resources. For example, groups like the European Customs
trafficking of cocaine base products Union publish statistics on their seizures of counterfeit
from the Plurinational State of Bolivia products each year. Similarly, the International Chamber of
to neighbouring developing countries Commerce keeps detailed records of piracy incidents, and
in the Southern Cone. These the Convention on International Trade in Endangered
phenomena can be tracked through Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) secretariat
supply, demand and seizure statistics.

26
maintains a longstanding database on elephant ivory groups most commonly associated with 1
seizures. “organized crime” in the public imagination.
Concrete examples include the various mafia
How is the global situation changing? organizations in Italy; the American ethnic mafias (Italian,
Data from these sources can tell us something about Irish, Jewish, Polish and others); the Yakuza of Japan; the
developments in specific markets, but can anything sensible Triads of Hong Kong and the Tongs of Chinatowns
be said about trends in transnational organized crime worldwide; the favela gangs of Brazil; some street gangs in
generally? Much of the discussion to date has been the United States, Central America and the Cape Flats of
conducted by law enforcement authorities, and, for reasons South Africa; and many others.
described above, law enforcement authorities have been This form of organized crime grows in
deeply concerned about the nature of the groups involved in geographic areas and communities that
organized crime. There appears to be general consensus that the state has neglected, such as slums
both highly structured and loosely structured organizations and new immigrant neighbourhoods.
are involved in transnational organized crime, and a number Socially excluded communities
of authorities have argued that the former are losing out to frequently respond to the lack of
the latter. opportunity by creating their own
For example, in 2001, the European Commission claimed: sources of credit, job access and
… traditional hierarchical structures are being security. Unregulated, these schemes
replaced by loose networks of criminals...7 can devolve into loan sharking, labour
racketeering and protection rackets.
In 2004, a United Nations High-Level Panel found that: What began as the efforts of a
Organized crime is increasingly operating through marginalized community to protect and
fluid networks rather than more formal hierarchies. provide for itself can transform over
This form of organization provides criminals with time into a source of predation,
diversity, flexibility, low visibility, and longevity.8 threatening their own community and
the society at large.
In its 2006 Organized Crime Threat Assessment, Europol
notes: Similarly, where the state forbids goods
OC groups are also becoming increasingly and services for which there is
heterogeneous and dynamically organised in nonetheless strong demand (for
structural terms, moving towards loose networks example, drugs, gambling and
rather than pyramidal monoliths.9 prostitution), selfappointed authorities
can assume a regulatory role.
According to the 2008 United States Department of Distribution centres are often located in
Justice’s Strategy to Combat International Organized marginal areas, and organized crime
Crime: groups have strong incentives to keep
International organized criminals have evolved these areas marginal. In order to secure
toward loose network structures and away from the loyalty of the local population, they
traditional hierarchical structures.10 may offer a range of community
services, providing support for people
If true, this represents a remarkable development across a not sufficiently served by the state. But
range of highly disparate activities, from elephant poaching however beneficent they may appear
in Central Africa to child pornography rings in Eastern locally, they remain violent criminals,
Europe. To understand this point better, it is necessary to enriching themselves through antisocial
look in some depth as to what are meant by “hierarchical activities, and ultimately accountable
structures” and “loose networks”. “Hierarchical structures” only to themselves.
seems to refer to the kind of groups that emerge in low-
governance areas around the world, which have an These territorial organized crime groups have
institutional identity of their own and typically engage in a been known by different names around the
wide range of criminal activities in the territories they world, and some of the currently active groups
control (i.e. “the mafia” and similar structures ). The “loose have existed for generations. As longstanding
networks” may be a reference to the mutable commercial organizations, they have been essentially
ties between buyers and sellers of contraband in illicit conservative, usually hierarchical, and often
markets around the world. Human beings seem to have a clannish. Their concerns have been chiefly
natural tendency to self-organize, and do so spontaneously local, providing for and exploiting their parent
when no higher authority provides order. People and communities, while combating rival groups
activities that the state fails to regulate tend to fall under the and the state. They tend to be engaged in
control of local actors, who then vigorously defend this multiple criminal activities in their territories,
power from reacquisition by the state. Without the formal rather than specializing in a particular
apparatus of government and access to the courts, local commodity or service.
strong men are compelled to settle disputes with violence,
The latest wave of globalization has
or at least the credible threat of violence. These strong men,
proven to be both an opportunity and a
and the organizations they build, constitute the hierarchical
challenge for these traditional
Case studies of transnational threats 27
 THE THREAT OF TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
hierarchical groups were coordinating
their activities in a vast global
organized crime groups. Although conspiracy.12
many have been involved in
transnational trafficking for years, their This portrayal of organized crime provided a kind of local
rigid structure and focus on rival army with which to war, and glossed over any
maintaining local authority has caused structures that did not fit the model. The media fascination
some to miss emerging global with the image of an underground empire continued to
opportunities. This has led a number of grow, and the fear this generated may have become a source
authorities to argue that they are being of funding for further law enforcement against these
“replaced” by smaller, more flexible groups. Only with growing scrutiny over time has this
groups, or “networks”. One popular image begun to crumble, and what had appeared to be
notion is that networks are an adaptive concerted action was, in many instances, determined to be
response to law enforcement pressure the activity of a range of actors responding to market
on the more visible traditional forces.
hierarchies, essentially the “next It is also possible that while transnational trafficking
generation” in organized crime. As markets have grown, traditional turf-based activities may
traditional groups are weakened have declined in value, leading to a decline in the
through repeated arrests and seizures, prominence of territorial groups. Turf-based groups have
the narrative goes, market gaps are always profited from transnational trafficking, either by
quickly filled by low-profile, agile trafficking on their own behalf or by taxing sale of
groups. This alleged evolution in contraband in their areas. But a number of social changes
organized crime would be parallel to and policy developments may have made conditions less
the development of “cell structure” in favourable for oldschool racketeering in the wealthier
terrorism. countries, including: the growth in easy access to credit; the
In fact, these networks are hardly decline in the influence of labour unions; policies favouring
groups at all, any more so than a the integration of new immigrants and the decline in
widget manufacturer, a shipping ethnically homogeneous neighbourhoods; the outsourcing
company and a local widget retailer are of manufacturing to developing countries; containerized
a “group.” With no independent shipping; greater transparency in hiring practices and
institutional identity, they are nothing government contracting; controls on patronage politics in
more than commercial connections of developed counties; the growth of private security
varying durability between individuals, companies; and liberalized policies on gambling and
all responding to a common interest in prostitution in many areas. With growing regulation at a
making money. And rather than being national level, it may be that the criminal opportunities
an adaptive response of traditional today are rather found in the unguarded interstices of the
groups, networks of market-driven transnational arena.
individuals have probably always Perhaps it is safest to say that the groups themselves have
existed in transnational trafficking, but become less important than the markets with which they
were less visible to law enforcement engage. For example, many types of groups have engaged
authorities focused on local crime in cocaine trafficking since the current boom began in the
problems. 1970s, with routes and conveyances shifting in response to
When organized crime first rose in enforcement efforts, internecine wars, trends in demand and
prominence, law enforcement the intricacies of geopolitics. Some of these groups were
authorities may have focused on an involved in a range of criminal activities, but far more were
opponent that was organized similarly specialized in cocaine. Many of these groups came and
to themselves. This impression was went, but the cocaine continued to flow. The nature of these
bolstered by the discovery of the mob groups was, in the end, less significant than the issues of
meeting at Apalachin, New York, in supply and demand.
1957, where some 70 senior gang Today, organized crime seems to be less a matter of a group
members from around the country were of individuals who are involved in a range of illicit
present. This incident was taken as activities, and more a matter of a group of illicit activities in
confirmation that the enemy was a kind which some individuals and groups are presently involved.
of anti-government or criminal If these individuals are arrested and incarcerated, the
corporation, secretly coordinating the activities continue, because the illicit market, and the
illicit activities of the nation. When the incentives it generates, remain. Strategies aimed at the
European authorities began looking for groups will not stop the illicit activities if the dynamics of
similar structures at about that time, the market remain unaddressed.
they may have imported a perceptual
bias from the United States.11 Some Law enforcement seems to have had trouble making the
commentators have even suggested that leap from focusing on groups to focusing on markets.
the leadership of the traditional Police officers, investigators and prosecutors are employed

28
to make cases against individuals and groups of individuals in the past. This report does not hazard 1
in a particular jurisdiction. They lack the authority and the much prognostication, but it does
tools to take on an entire trafficking flow. As hammers, they explore some of the risk factors that
seek nails, and tend to conceptualize organized crime as the affect the way transnational organized
activities of a collection of particular people, rather than a crime evolves over time.
market with a dynamism of its own.13
The enhanced movement of everything
This focus on building cases has been a real barrier to
A term with nearly as many meanings as
making progress against criminal markets because, in most
users, “globalization” generally refers to
countries, the combating of organized crime has been seen
the growing interconnectedness of the
as almost exclusively a matter of law enforcement. The
nations of the world following the
situation is further complicated because the problem is
global liberalization of trade at the end
international while the tools are inherently national. Penal
of the Cold War. Enhanced flow of
law is a matter of national legislation, which itself is the
goods was accompanied by enhanced
codification of long-standing cultural norms. Further, the
flow of capital and services and
criminal justice system is an essential mechanism for the
outsourcing of manufacturing. Global
maintenance of internal stability. As each breach of the
tourism has expanded, facilitated by
criminal law represents a kind of governance failure,
less restrictive visa regimes and cheaper
particularly when executed by an organized group, this
airfares. The simultaneous expansion of
activity is often regarded as a matter of national security.
the Internet and telecommunications has
High-level corruption is often involved, which can be
also led to globalization in a cultural
embarrassing for affected states. There are also legal issues
sense. Today, a wide range of products
involved in discussing the facts of pending cases and
and services can be accessed virtually
strategic reasons for silence on ongoing investigations.
anywhere in the world.
In short, the subject matter is sensitive, making
But the process of globalization has
international information-sharing and multilateral
outpaced the growth of mechanisms for
interventions difficult. And, historically, crime has been
global governance, and this deficiency
primarily a local issue, so there has been little motivation to
has produced just the sort of regulation
collaborate across borders on the topic. As the following
vacuum in which transnational
section argues, this attitude is bound to change due to our
organized crime can thrive. People and
growing appreciation of the threat posed by organized
goods can move more cheaply than ever
crime.
before, and criminals and contraband
can only be interdicted by national
What factors influence the evolution of organized governments. Human and commercial
crime threats? flows are too intense to easily
Transnational organized crime has evolved over time. Drug distinguish the licit from the illicit. Silos
epidemics have come and gone and resurfaced in new of sovereignty provide sanctuary to
environs. Human trafficking and firearms flows have those who, however harmful their
rapidly expanded in areas of conflict and subsided just as activities, are of use to the authorities in
rapidly. The end of the Cold War, the decline in the number one country or another. The open seas,
and severity of civil wars and the advance of globalization which constitute three quarters of the
have all impacted on organized crime in unpredicted ways. earth’s surface, remain essentially
In many instances, the inability of the global community to ungoverned.14 And the rapid pace of
predict these trends has resulted in damage that could have change itself provides opportunities for
been avoided with a little foresight. organized crime.

Of course, predicting storms in the The ease with which people and goods
complex weather of global affairs is a travel between nations today confounds
matter of considerable complexity and the regulatory attempts of any
uncertainty. But much can be learned by individual nation. The number of air
looking retrospectively at dynamics that passengers has grown at approximately
have affected organized crime problems 5% per

year over the past 30 years, enabled by the FIG. 20: GROWTH IN INTERNATIO-
introduction of wide-body jumbo jets in the NAL TRADE, 1948-2008
1970s, as well as airline deregulation.15 In 2007, the
world’s airlines flew more than 29 million Trend by region (billion dollars) 2008

scheduled flights, transporting over 2.2 billion 1,021.3 Middle East

passengers between some 3,750 airports in
UNODC / SCIENCES PO

cities across the world.16

USSR/CIS
As capacity has increased, prices have declined. 702.7
In
one US study to measure the effects of airline 73
x8

4,353.1 Asia
Case studies of transnational threats 29
1948 38
x5
 6,446.6 Europe
7
x 52
1.3
THE THREAT OF TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
deregulation557.8 inAfrica
the late 1970s, median
11
x3
fares were found to have declined by
8.3
almost 40% between 1980 and
2,035.7 North A merica
17
2005. It is now easy and affordable to travel to cities previously considered
29 remote and inaccessible. The
expansion of civil aviation provides mobility needed x 1 illicit international activity.
for both licit and
20.7

599.6 South and

Air transport prevails in the movement of people, but the bulk of goods 23
are moved by Central
sea. More A mericathan 90% of
x1
global trade is transported by sea, and these flows are 4.3
rapidly expanding: in 1996, 332 million tons of goods
were transported worldwide, and by 2007, this had increased to 828 million2008tons. 18 Containerization has
greatly accelerated the flow of goods through ports,16.6and international commerce
x9
0 has become dependent on this
new pace. As with air travel, for the first time, it has become economically feasible to move goods between
countries formerly divided by insuperable space. More 6.7
and more manufacturing is outsourced, increasing the
importance of rapid mass movement of goods. Between 2002 and 2007, the amount of cargo moving through
1948
the top seven Chinese ports tripled.19 Very little of this cargo can be inspected. Source: World Trade Organization

Total (billion dollars ) 15,717

FIG. 19: NUMBER OF TWENTY-FOOT CONTAINER EQUIVALENT UNITS (TEU) MOVED
THROUGH SHANGHAI PORT, 2002-2007

30,000,000

25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000
26,150,000
10,000,000 5,000,000 0
7,377

Source: American Association of Port Authorities World Port Rankings, various years
21,710,000
Even more rapid has been the expansion in the growth of Similarly, internet fraudsters and identity thieves can find
global communications. The number of mobile phone
18,084,000 victims in the wealthy countries while safely ensconced in
subscribers increased from some 200 million in 1997 to 3.3 nations with little power or will to stop them. The money
14,557,000
billion in 2007. The International Telecommunications they skim can easily be moved through dozens of national
3,676
UNODC / SCIENCES PO

11,280,000
Union estimates the 2008 number at 4.1 billion; a yearly banking systems in a matter of minutes, making their
increase of 8,620,000
almost 25%. While telecommunication used to transactions nearly impossible to trace. The high volume of
be tied to a location, it has now become as mobile as its legal funds circulating 1,838
around the globe makes the
users. Moreover, in December 1991, the internet was movement of dirty money less conspicuous. Criminal cash
579
comprised of 10 websites; in July 2009, the number was is often moved to a different jurisdiction for placement in
59 84 157
20
close to 2402002million.
2003 It is2004impossible
2005 to2006
police2007
these the legitimate financial system, investment in property or to
1993
2003
2008
1948
1953
1963
1973
1983

information flows. Old forms of crime are supported by pay for illicit commodities or services.22
information technology, and new forms are emerging, Source: World Trade Organization

unique to the virtual world. Grey and black markets

An example of a traditional crime that has been Most definitions of organized crime specify its profit-driven
revolutionized by global communications is child nature, and, like licit business, criminal enterprise is subject
pornography. Far from being a new phenomenon, the to the vagaries of the international economic climate.
internet has enabled cheap and instant global distribution to Certain economic circum-
millions of customers from concealed origins, usually
situated in countries where prosecution is unlikely. In the
past, the images would have had to be processed, printed
and the21:
FIG. hard copies distributed
MILLIONS via mail or USERS,
OF INTERNET retail outlets.
1997-2007
TEUs

As with many other technology-related crimes,

1600
legislation (and by extension enforcement) is
struggling to keep up. In a recent study of 187 countries
worldwide,
1400 93 countries were found to lack legislation that
1,344
specifically addresses child pornography, and of the
countries
1200 that do have such legislation, 24 do not provide
1,168
for offences facilitated by computer technology.21 This
1000 989
means that the majority of the world’s countries has not
867
kept
800 pace with developments in the world of crime.
721
600 616
489
400 390
30
275
200 183
 0

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007
Source: International Telecommunications Union make room for the new developments. They also 1
invested heavily in the boom, so that when the
bubble burst, their interference with the collection

FIG. 22: MILLIONS OF MOBILE PHONE

SUBSCRIBERS, 1997-2007

3500

3,305
3000
2,757
2500
2,219
2000
1,763
1500 1,417
1,157
1000 961
738
500 490
318
215
0
2007
1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

process has been said to be a key cause of the recession that

followed.23
Source: International Telecommunications Union
Organized criminals are subject not just to shifts in the licit
economy, but to shifts in the illicit one as well. For
stances seem to favour the rapid development of organized example, Jamaica suffered for decades under organized
crime, and the single most important global economic event violence linked to patronage politics, culminating in the
of recent times – the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse 1980 elections. During the 1980s, large amounts of cocaine
of the former Soviet Union – continues to resound in the transited Jamaica en route to the crack markets of the north-
underworld. Aside from opening the way to globalization as eastern United States, where Jamaican nationals also
discussed above, the rapid social changes it brought in a dominated key markets. In the 1990s, the cocaine flows
large number of countries generated precisely the sort of began to shift from the Caribbean to Central America, as
gaps in governance that typically spawn organized crime. radar surveillance prevented trafficking by air and as
Mexican groups increasingly dominated cocaine
The rapid shift from being highly managed societies to free- importation and distribution in the US. As Jamaican groups
market democracies created deep challenges for all the lost this key source of income, it appears that many
Warsaw Pact countries. As the massive edifice of compensated by engaging in predatory crimes in their own
communism collapsed, much was damaged by the rubble, communities, including extortion and robbery. Violence
and the dust obscured a great many crimes. The old rules of levels increased commensurably, giving the country one of
social and economic behaviour were suddenly suspended, the highest murder rates on earth in recent years.
while new norms had yet to take hold. Countries that had
been dependent on the Soviet Union for direction and It is still too early to discern the impact of the current
guidance were suddenly left to their own devices. Whole economic crisis. It stands to reason that growing
social sectors were thrown open, essentially unregulated. unemployment and declining licit opportunities would
cause some to become less picky about their source of
Of course, organized crime had existed under communism, income or the origins of the products they consume. On the
particularly in the form of consumer goods smuggling, other hand, many of the items traded by organized crime are
which generally took place with the corrupt complicity of essentially luxury goods and services, not the staples of life,
the security services. The groups involved were well and tightening economic conditions would affect illicit
positioned to take advantage of the confusion, and the lines markets as well.
between capitalism and looting could be hard to discern.
Security in this period was essential, both to protect For example, in order for human trafficking to be feasible,
established interests and to repel petty interlopers. forced labour must be cheaper than voluntary labour, even
after the additional costs of securing and retaining victims
Aside from creating new players, economic shifts can affect are factored in. Women trafficked for sexual exploitation
established ones, and organized crime can deeply impact the have to compete with voluntary sex workers, whose
formal economy. For example, Japan’s construction numbers can be expected to swell if economic conditions
“bubble” in the 1980s brought new power to the Yakuza. worsen. The growth in supply is likely to cause a drop in
Long employed by legitimate interests to resolve disputes price, chasing what is likely to be a declining demand from
outside Japan’s legal system, the Yakuza were used in “land a cash-strapped male population. The net result would be
sharking” – forcing reluctant tenants and property holders to smaller incentives for trafficking. Similarly, sweatshop

Case studies of transnational threats 31

 THE THREAT OF TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
As a result, crime rates are higher in cities,
especially in slums, where drug addiction and
labour would have to be cheaper to maintain than a gang activity proliferate.25 It is these areas that
voluntary workforce, in a market where demand for give rise and shelter to a variety of organized crime
manufactured products is likely to decline. activities. Urban violence and crime are on the rise in
developing countries; from 1980 to 2000, recorded crime
Young, urban, foreign and poor rates increased by almost one third. In developing countries,
Crime and violence are strongly associated with the an estimated 60% of all urban residents have been victims
increasing number of young people, particularly in of crime over the past five years, rising to 70% in Latin
developing countries. Almost 85% of the world’s youth America and Africa.26
currently live in developing countries, and by 2025, this Difficult conditions at home can provide a substantial
figure will grow to 89.5%. 24 And while 0.9 people per “push” to emigration. But while global capital flows freely,
100,000 die each day in youth homicides in high income labour still does not. Market demand for workers draws
countries, in Africa, the figure is 17.6 and in Latin America, them in from around the globe, oblivious to the immigration
36.4. Moreover, for every fatality, there are from 20 to 40 code. This creates demand for a service to overcome the
victims of non-fatal youth violence. These marginalized legal barriers, precisely the kind of service in which
young people provide foot soldiers to organized crime. organized crime specializes. The result is migrant
In addition, a growing share of these young people are being smuggling and the many abuses that accompany it.
raised in cities, without the support and normative There are more than 200 million international migrants in
infrastructure of the traditional rural lifestyle. More than the world today, which is two and a half times the number
half of humanity is already living in cities; a share that is in 1965, and a significant share of these migrants are
projected to reach 60% within two decades, with most of undocumented. Human mobility has become a life choice
the growth taking place in developing countries. Since most driven by disparities in demography, income and
developing countries lack the capacity to accommodate this employment opportunities across and within regions.27 And
rapid inflow, many will be brought up in slums, where since this migration is essential to both developing and
quality of life is low and competition for scarce resources is developed countries, it will be extremely difficult to stop
fierce. Urban lifestyles require cash; which is difficult to through law enforcement. Demographic trends show that
access legally in countries with high unemployment levels.

32
 the working age population in developed countries is 1
expected to decline by 23% by 2050 without immigration. 28
The working age population of Africa, on the other hand, is
expected to almost triple, from 408 million in 2005 to 1.12
billion in 2050.29

Most irregular migrants resort to the assistance of profit-

seeking smugglers.30 For example, Dutch customs data on
asylum seekers who arrived in the

G. 24: MIGRANT STOCK EVOLUTION BY

COUNTRY/REGION, 1960-2010

grant stocks* 17,856.6 Gulf countries

ousand )
al migrants
estination country

17,331.4 CIS (USSR)

536.3
42,813.3 United States of A merica
,988.2

,825.6
57,570.9 Europe

,568.3 9,545.3 West Africa

12,967.6 Near East and Caucasus

,475.1

725.7 Mexico

,436.8 Japan, Republic of Korea,

2,748.1
Democratic People’s Republic
of Korea
223.2
5,673.6 Australia and New Zealand

853.4

7,202.3 Canada
,032.0

,766.3 1,494.4 Central A merica and Caribbean

3,437.6 China
705.1

,876.9
6,792.8 South-East Asia and Pacific

,917.5

3,243.7 East and Central Africa

,887.6
4,970.7 Southern Africa
,546.4

,083.3
4,444.7 South A merica

,776.5
Case studies of transnational threats 33
12,084.2 Indian subcontinent
NCES PO
 UNO
e: UN Population Division

THE THREAT OF TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME

enforcement is ever roused into action, the
violence associated with this disruption of the
Netherlands in 2000 showed that 97% had received criminal equilibrium can even fuel calls for
assistance from smugglers. Migrant smuggling is already a enforcement to desist.
major revenue-generating transnational criminal activity, So, the real threat of organized crime cannot be reduced to
and given that illegal immigration is likely to increase, so the violence associated with criminal markets. Rather, it is
will the size of the illicit economy related to migrant best described under two headings:
smuggling and the number of criminals involved in the
trade. s Direct impacts, which are essentially the rea-
sons each criminal activity was prohibited in the first
Migration, be it legal or illegal, may also broaden the reach place;
of existing criminal networks. Although most migrants, s Indirect impacts, in particular the ways organized crime as
including many of those who enter their destination country a category undermines the state and legitimate
illegally, are generally lawabiding citizens, among them, commercial activity.
there are inevitably affiliates of a variety of criminal
networks. These people bring with them their crime-related Direct impact
skills and knowledge as well as their criminal contacts. It is easy to lose sight of the reasons why organized criminal
Chinese, Nigerian, Italian and Russian groups are well- activities were prohibited in the first place. For some
known examples of network proliferation through markets, like drug trafficking or migrant smuggling, most of
migration. the parties are willing participants. Many die as a result of
Revolutionaries or criminals? their choices, but in a world increasingly governed by the
principle of let the buyer beware, it is possible to absolve
Another source of rapid change and governance gaps is ourselves of responsibility for this loss. Unless we happen
conflict. Most wars today are civil wars, usually fought by to know one of the victims, these personal costs are not
dissident groups and regional secessionists. In the post-Cold tallied as social costs, and so the impact of crime becomes
War world, these groups may be compelled to find funding obscured.
through illicit activities. If they control territory, they can
use this land to facilitate transnational trafficking. The In addition, the impact of organized crime is often realised
money this brings in can become an end in itself. After in a different country than that where the profits accrue.
some time, it may be difficult to differentiate political Crimes may appear victimless when the victims are located
dissidents and criminal groups. This issue is discussed on the other end of the world, and criminals who bring in
further in this report. money by exporting problems may receive popular support.
For example, people residing in the under-governed areas of
Why should we be concerned? countries that produce drugs may see no problem with
working for the trafficking groups, who may provide more
The threat posed by transnational organized crime is often security and support than the state. The drug addicts are
misunderstood. There is a tendency to oversimplify, and, in located overseas, and so do not form part of the calculus of
particular, to equate the damage done by organized crime local actors. Similarly, those who use drugs in developed
with the amount of violence associated with the market. But countries rarely consider the way that their consumption
the threat posed is much deeper than a body count, tragic may be affecting violence and stability in producer and
though this loss of life may be. transit countries. Only when viewed globally are the net
costs of trafficking apparent, and only national
Many forms of organized crime do involve violence or the
governments, not their organized crime substitutes, have
threat of violence. For example, to subjugate human
any incentive to look globally.
trafficking victims, violence or the credible threat of
violence is almost always present. In other markets, Certain drugs are prohibited because they cause addiction
violence is needed to ensure contract compliance and to and lead to serious physical and mental health problems.
resolve disputes. Professional criminals may seek to The impact inevitably extends beyond the users, affecting
minimize the extent of violence to ensure the smooth flow their families, communities and the society at large. The
of profits and to avoid unwanted attention, but few would costs of drug- related accidents, lost productivity, child
be able to conduct their business without recourse to the neglect and abuse, psychological damage and the like are
gun. tremendously difficult to tally. It is a challenge to simply
estimate the number of drug addicts in the world. Addicts in
Relying on homicide figures as a proxy for the threat would
developing countries often go uncounted, while some of
be a big mistake, however, because some of the areas most
those in richer nations handle the matter privately.
afflicted by organized crime have very low violence levels,
just as some authoritarian societies have very low crime Based on the available data, it is possible to estimate that
rates. Typically, the better organized the crime, the less between 172 million and 250 million adults used illicit
violence associated with it. The groups concerned have paid drugs in 2007. On the upper end, this is more than the
off the appropriate officials, resolved intra- and intergroup population of any but the three largest nations in the world.
tensions, and terrified the public to the extent that very little Perhaps 18 to 38 million could be classed as “problem drug
additional violence is required. As noted above, crime users”. On the upper end, this is more than the populations
groups sometimes provide social services and support that of Switzerland, Bulgaria, Honduras, Israel, and Hong Kong,
the state does not, winning them popular support. If law China combined. We also know that some 4.4 million

34
people are currently in drug treatment worldwide, The profits generated through natural resource 1
equivalent to the entire population of Ireland. Studies of smuggling are driving whole ecosystems to the
people arrested for a range of crimes in the United States, brink of extinction. The true costs of this crime
Australia, and elsewhere have found that most test positive are impossible to reduce to a dollar figure – a world less
for drug use. In a 2008 study in the United States, 87% of diverse, the end of whole life forms, a shortsighted error
people arrested in 10 major cities tested positive for drugs. 31 impossible to correct.

Few would dispute the seriousness of the crime of human Indirect impact
trafficking, but far less is known about its extent. Based on Aside from the damages directly caused by specific forms
data from 111 countries and of crime, there is one that is common to all: the insidious
erosion of state control. Traditional organized crime groups
FIG. 25: SIZE OF GLOBAL DRUG-USING
POPULATIONS, 2007

displace state authority, by filling the governance niches

250
250

200
millions of people

150

100

50 38

4.4
0
Drug users Problem drug users Addicts in treatment
neglected by the official structures and by co-opting
whatever vestigial state agents remain. In other words,
organized crime groups gradually undermine the authority
and the health of the official government.
300
Why is this a problem? Insofar as the official state
structures provide value, this value is threatened by the
Source: World Drug Report growth of parallel structures. Organized crime groups are
territories (not including China or India), 21,400 victims inherently unaccountable, they are not subject to democratic
were detected world-wide in 2006. These are just the controls, and their chief aim is the enrichment of their
victims detected, and it is estimated that only one in 20 or membership, not the advancement of society. Where they
one in 30 victims are ever recognised. If true, this represents are predominant, development can become impossible,
and immense pool of human suffering. In addition, there are because any contract that is not to the advantage of the
as many as a million images of child pornography currently dominant groups will be nullified. In areas where the
circulating on the Internet, each of which represents an act official state structures are particularly bad, organized crime
of human trafficking and a crime against the most basic groups may appear relatively attractive. But the solution in
moral principles. The impact of these crimes is impossible these cases is to improve governance, not to cede authority
to quantify. to those who enrich themselves through antisocial activities.
Many mistakenly believe the primary impact of product Since the network groups do not seek to wrest territory from
counterfeiting is loss of revenues to rights holders, but the state control, their impact is even more insidious, but can be
crime has far more serious implications. Manufacturers of just as important. Most transnational trafficking requires
counterfeits have little incentive to adhere to safety smuggling, and the surest means of smuggling is through
regulations, since they have no reputation to protect or corruption. In poorer states, the corruption can go straight to
liability to fear. Substandard or outright hazardous products, the top, and the highest authorities can quickly become
from toys to auto break pads, pose a serious public safety manipulated by traffickers. If opposed, these groups can
threat. Of greatest concern is counterfeit medication, which, engineer the removal of problematic officials, up to and
in addition to hastening the death of the many who go including the chief executive. If the state is uncooperative, it
untreated, can contribute to the generation of drug-resistant can support opposition groups or insurgents. Under these
strains of the most deadly pathogens. circumstances, the rational choice may be to give in to the

Case studies of transnational threats 35

 THE THREAT OF TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME

traffickers. This is a situation the international community

cannot afford to permit.

36