EJERSICIO 1.

1. Soccer Game
You are off to soccer, and love being the Goalkeeper, but that depends who is the Coach today:
with Coach Sam the probability of being Goalkeeper is 0.5
with Coach Alex the probability of being Goalkeeper is 0.3
Sam is Coach more often ... about 6 out of every 10 games (a probability of 0.6).
So, what is the probability you will be a Goalkeeper today?
 
Let's build the tree diagram. First we show the two possible coaches: Sam or Alex:

The probability of getting Sam is 0.6, so the probability of Alex must be 0.4 (together the probability is 1)
Now, if you get Sam, there is 0.5 probability of being Goalie (and 0.5 of not being Goalie):

If you get Alex, there is 0.3 probability of being Goalie (and 0.7 not):

The tree diagram is complete, now let's calculate the overall probabilities. This is done by multiplying each
probability along the "branches" of the tree.
Here is how to do it for the "Sam, Yes" branch:

(When we take the 0.6 chance of Sam being coach and include the 0.5 chance that Sam will let you be Goalkeeper
we end up with an 0.3 chance.)
But we are not done yet! We haven't included Alex as Coach:
An 0.4 chance of Alex as Coach, followed by an 0.3 chance gives 0.12.
Now we add the column:
0.3 + 0.12 = 0.42 probability of being a Goalkeeper today
(That is a 42% chance)
Check
One final step: complete the calculations and make sure they add to 1:

0.3 + 0.3 + 0.12 + 0.28 = 1

Yes, it all adds up.
Conclusion
So there you go, when in doubt draw a tree diagram, multiply along the branches and add the columns. Make sure
all probabilities add to 1 and you are good to go.

2. by Probability Tree Diagram and Probability Table

3. The probability of event A is the number of ways event A can occur divided by the total number of possible
outcomes. Let's take a look at a slight modification of the problem from the top of the page.
Experiment 1:   A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red.
After spinning the spinner, what is the probability of landing on
each color?
Outcomes:   The possible outcomes of this experiment are yellow, blue, green,
and red.
Probabilities:   # of ways to land on yellow 1
P(yellow)  =   = 
total # of colors  4 
 
# of ways to land on blue 1
P(blue)  =   = 
total # of colors  4 
 
# of ways to land on green 1
P(green)  =   = 
total # of colors  4 
 
# of ways to land on red 1
P(red)  =   = 
total # of colors  4 
4.
Experiment 3:   A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3 yellow
marbles. If a single marble is chosen at random from the jar,
what is the probability of choosing a red marble? a green
marble? a blue marble? a yellow marble?
Outcomes:   The possible outcomes of this experiment are red, green, blue
and yellow.
Probabilities:   # of ways to choose red  6   3 
P(red)  =   =   = 
total # of marbles 22 11
 
# of ways to choose green  5 
P(green)  =   = 
total # of marbles 22
 
# of ways to choose blue  8   4 
P(blue)  =   =   = 
total # of marbles 22 11
 
# of ways to choose yellow  3 
P(yellow)  =   = 
total # of marbles 22

The outcomes in this experiment are not equally likely to occur. You are more likely to choose a blue marble
than any other color. You are least likely to choose a yellow marble.

5.
Experiment 4:   Choose a number at random from 1 to 5. What is the probability of each outcome? What
is the probability that the number chosen is even? What is the probability that the
number chosen is odd?
Outcomes:   The possible outcomes of this experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.
Probabilities:   # of ways to choose a 1 1
P(1)  =   = 
total # of numbers 5
 
# of ways to choose a 2 1
P(2)  =   = 
total # of numbers 5
 
P(3)  = # of ways to choose a 3  = 1
 total # of numbers 5
 
# of ways to choose a 4 1
P(4)  =   = 
total # of numbers 5
 
# of ways to choose a 5 1
P(5)  =   = 
total # of numbers 5
 
# of ways to choose an even number 2
P(even)  =   = 
total # of numbers 5
 
# of ways to choose an odd number 3
P(odd)  =   = 
total # of numbers 5

The outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are equally likely to occur as a result of this experiment. However, the events
even and odd are not equally likely to occur, since there are 3 odd numbers and only 2 even numbers from 1 to
5.