Financial Modeling With Levy Processes
Financial Modeling With Levy Processes
Peter Tankov
Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées
Ecole Polytechnique
Email: peter.tankov@polytechnique.org
Lecture notes
Contents
1 Introduction 2
1
8 European options in exp-Lévy models 39
8.1 Numerical Fourier inversion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
10 Gap options 45
10.1 Single asset gap options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
10.2 Multi-asset gap options and Lévy copulas . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
11 Implied volatility 58
11.1 Large/small strikes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
11.2 Short maturity asymptotics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
11.3 Flattening of the smile far from maturity . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
1 Introduction
Exponential Lévy models generalize the classical Black and Scholes setup
by allowing the stock prices to jump while preserving the independence and
stationarity of returns. There are ample reasons for introducing jumps in
financial modeling. First of all, asset prices do jump, and some risks sim-
ply cannot be handled within continuous-path models. Second, the well-
documented phenomenon of implied volatility smile in option markets shows
that the risk-neutral returns are non-gaussian and leptokurtic. While the
smile itself can be explained within a model with continuous paths, the fact
that it becomes much more pronounced for short maturities is a clear indica-
tion of the presence of jumps. In continuous-path models, the law of returns
for shorter maturities becomes closer to the Gaussian law, whereas in real-
ity and in models with jumps returns actually become less Gaussian as the
2
horizon becomes shorter. Finally, jump processes correspond to genuinely
incomplete markets, whereas all continuous-path models are either complete
or ’completable’ with a small number of additional assets. This fundamental
incompleteness makes it possible to carry out a rigorous analysis of the hedg-
ing error and find ways to improve the hedging performance using additional
instruments such as liquid European options.
A great advantage of exponential Lévy models is their mathematical
tractability, which makes it possible to perform many computations explic-
itly and to present deep results of modern mathematical finance in a simple
manner. This has led to an explosion of the literature on option pricing
and hedging in exponential Lévy models in the late 90s and early 2000s, the
literature which now contains hundreds of research papers and several mono-
graphs. However, some fundamental aspects such as asymptotic behavior of
implied volatility or the computation of hedge ratios have only recently been
given a rigorous treatment.
For background on exponential Lévy models, the reader may refer to
textbooks such as [20, 60] for a more financial perspective or [3, 44] for a
more mathematical perspective.
• Independent increments;
• Stationary increments;
• At any fixed time, the probability of having a jump is zero: ∀t, P [Xt− =
Xt ] = 1.
3
Lévy processes are essentially processes with jumps, because it can be
shown that any Lévy process which has a.s.continuous trajectories is a Brow-
nian motion with drift.
Xt = γt + Wt ,
4
Step 3 The equations (1) and (2) allow to prove that for every function f
such that f (x) = o(|x|2 ) in a neighborhood of 0, limn nE[f (X 1 )] = 0 which
n
implies that ε > 0
(7)
u2
E[X 21 1X 1 ≤ε ] + o(1/n)} + o(1)
= n log{1 + iuE[X 1 1X 1 ≤ε ] −
n n 2 n n
Au2 Au2
= iuγ − + o(1) −−−→ iuγ −
2 n→∞ 2
where o(1) denotes a quantity which tends to 0 as n → ∞.
The second fundamental example of Lévy process is the Poisson process.
5
4. ∀t > 0, Nt− = Nt with probability 1.
6
which means that the first jump time T1 has exponential distribution.
Now, it suffices to show that the process (XT1 +t − XT1 )t≥0 is independent
from T1 and has the same law as (Xt )t≥0 . Let f (t) := E[eiuXt ]. Then using
once again the independence and stationarity of increments we get that f (t+
iuX
s) = f (t)f (s) and Mt := ef (t)t is a martingale. Let T1n := n ∧ T1 . Then by
Doob’s optional sampling theorem,
f (T1n + t) ivT1n
iu(XT n +t −XT n )+ivT1n n
E[e 1 1 ]=E n
e = E[eiuXt ]E[eivT1 ].
f (T1 )
where {Yi }i≥1 is a sequence of independent random variables with law µ and
N is a Poisson process with intensity λ independent from {Yi }i≥1 .
7
Example 1 (Merton’s model). The Merton (1976) model is one of the first
applications of jump processes in financial modeling. In this model, to take
into account price discontinuities, one adds Gaussian jumps to the log-price.
Nt
X
St = S0 ert+Xt , Xt = γt + σWt + Yi , Yi ∼ N (µ, δ 2 ) independents.
i=1
• For all A ∈ E with µ(A) < ∞, M (A) follows the Poisson law with
parameter E[M (A)] = µ(A).
8
Proposition 5. Let µ be a σ-finite measure on a measurable subset E of Rd .
Then there exists a Poisson random measure on E with intensity µ.
Proof. Suppose first that µ(E) < ∞. Let {Xi }i≥1 be a sequence of inde-
µ(A)
pendent random variables such that P [Xi ∈ A] = µ(E) , ∀i and ∀A ∈ B(E),
and let M (E) be a Poisson random variable with intensity µ(E) independent
from {Xi }i≥1 . It is then easy to show that the random measure M defined
by
M (E)
X
M (A) := 1A (Xi ), ∀A ∈ B(E),
i=1
The jump measure of a set of the form [s, t] × A counts the number of
jumps of X between s and t such that their sizes fall into A. For a counting
process, since the jump size is always equal to 1, the jump measure can be
seen as a random measure on [0, ∞).
Proposition 6. Let X be a Poisson process with intensity λ. Then JX is a
Poisson random measure on [0, ∞) with intensity λ × dt.
9
Maybe the most important result of the theory of Lévy processes is that
the jump measure of a general Lévy process is also a Poisson random measure.
Exercise 1. Let X and Y be two independent Lévy processes. Use the
definition to show that X + Y is also a Lévy process.
Exercise 2. Show that the memoryless property characterizes the exponen-
tial distribution: if a random variable T satisfies
∀t, s > 0, P [T > t + s|T > t] = P [T > s]
then either T ≡ 0 or T has exponential law.
Exercise 3. Prove that if N is a Poisson process then it is a Lévy process.
Exercise 4. Prove that if N and N 0 are independent Poisson processes with
parameters λ and λ0 then N + N 0 is a Poisson process with parameter λ + λ0 .
Exercise 5. Let X be a compound Poisson process with jump size distribu-
tion µ. Establish that
R
• E[|Xt |] < ∞ if and only if R |x|f (dx) and in this case
Z
E[Xt ] = λt xf (dx).
R
R
• E[|Xt |2 ] < ∞ if and only if x2 f (dx) and in this case
R
Z
Var[Xt ] = λt x2 f (dx).
R
R
• E[eXt ] < ∞ if and only if ex f (dx) and in this case
R
Z
Xt x
E[e ] = exp λt (e − 1)f (dx) .
R
10
3 Path structure of a Lévy process
Definition 8 (Lévy measure). Let X be an Rd -valued Lévy process. The
measure ν defined by
Xt = γt + Bt + Nt + Mt , where (9)
Z
Nt = xJX (ds × dx) and
|x|>1,s∈[0,t]
Z
Mt = x{JX (ds × dx) − ν(dx)ds}
0<|x|≤1,s∈[0,t]
Z
≡ xJ˜X (ds × dx).
0<|x|≤1,s∈[0,t]
The three terms are independent and the convergence in the last term is
almost sure and uniform in t on compacts.
11
Proof. In view of the independence and stationarity of increments, it is
eiuXt
enough to show that X1 and Y1 are independent. Let Mt = E[e iuXt ] and
iuY
e t
Nt = E[e iuYt ] . Then M and N are martingales on [0, 1]. From the indepen-
dence and stationarity of increments we deduce that for every Lévy process
Z,
E[eiuZt ] = E[eiuZ1 ]t and E[eiuZ1 ] 6= 0, ∀u.
This means that M is bounded. By Proposition 3, the number of jumps of Y
on [0, 1] is a Poisson random variable. Therefore, N has integrable variation
on this interval. By the martingale property and dominated convergence we
finally get
" n #
X
E[M1 N1 ] − 1 = E (Mi/n − M(i−1)/n )(Ni/n − N(i−1)/n )
"i=1 #
X
→E ∆Mt ∆Nt = 0,
0≤t≤1
Part 2 From the previous part, we deduce that ν(A) < ∞ whenever 0 ∈
/ Ā.
It remains to show that
Z
kxk2 ν(dx) < ∞
kxk≤δ
12
and Rtε = Xt − Xtε . Since (Xtε , Rtε ) is a Lévy process, Lemma 1 implies that
Xtε and Rtε are independent. In addition, |E[eiuXt ]| > 0 for all t, u. This
means that
ε ε
E[eiuXt ] = E[eiuRt ]E[eiuXt ].
ε
Therefore, |E[eiuXt ]| is bounded from below by a positive number which does
not depend on ε. By the exponential formula, this is equivalent to
Z
iux
exp t (e − 1)ν(dx) ≥ C > 0,
|x|≥ε
R
which gives |x|≥ε (1 − cos(ux))ν(dx) ≤ C̃ < ∞. Since this result is true for
all u, the proof of part 2 is completed.
Part 3 Observe first that the process M is well defined due to the com-
pensation of small jumps and the fact that the Lévy measure integrates kxk2
near zero: introducing the process
Z
ε
Mt = xJ˜X (ds × dx),
ε≤kxk<1,s∈[0,t]
and so, since the space L is complete, for every t, Mtε converges in L2 as
2
Proof. Using the previous theorem and the exponential formula, we get
Au2
Z
iu(γt+Bt +Nt +Mtε ) iux
E[e ] = exp t iγu − + (e − 1 − iux1|x|≤1 )ν(dx) ,
2 |x|≥ε
13
Example 2 (The variance gamma process). One of the simplest examples
of Lévy processes with infinite intensity of jumps is the gamma process, a
process with stationary independent increments and such that for all t, the
law pt of Xt is the gamma law with parameters λ and ct:
λct ct−1 −λx
pt (x) = x e .
Γ(ct)
The gamma process is an increasing Lévy process whose characteristic func-
tion has a very simple form:
E[eiuXt ] = (1 − iu/λ)−ct .
One can easily show that the Lévy measure of the gamma process has a
density given by
ce−λx
ν(x) = 1x>0 . (11)
x
Starting from the gamma process, we can construct a very popular jump
model: the variance gamma process [50, 48] which is obtained by changing
the time scale of a Brownian motion with drift with a gamma process:
Yt = µXt + σBXt .
14
Exercise 8. Let X be a Lévy process with Lévy measure ν(dx) = λν0 (dx),
R ∞ and satisfies ν0 (R) = ∞. For all n ∈ N, let kn > 0
where ν0 has no atom
be the solution of kn ν0 (dx) = n. For a fixed T , give the law of the random
variable
An = #{t ≤ T : ∆Xt ∈ [kn+1 , kn ]}.
Use this result to suggest a method for estimating λ from an observation of
the trajectory of X on [0, T ], supposing that ν0 is known.
Exercise 10. Prove that the Lévy measure of the gamma process is given by
equation (11). Show that the variance gamma process can be represented as
a difference of two independent gamma process, and use this result to deduce
the form of the Lévy measure of the variance gamma process.
15
be the time of the first jump of N . If one could use the (càdlàg) strategy
φt = 1[0,T ) (t) amounting to sell the asset just before the jump, there would
clearly be an arbitrage opportunity, since
Z t
Vt = φt dSt = λt ∧ T.
0
16
on Ducp , for which this space will be complete. To extend the stochastic
integration operator defined by (13) from Sucp to Lucp , this operator must
be continuous as a mapping from Sucp to Ducp . Whether or not this is true,
depends on the integrator S, and we shall limit ourselves to the integrators
for which this property holds.
Definition 9. The process S ∈ D is a semimartingale if the stochastic
integration operator defined by (13) is a continuous operator from Sucp to
Ducp .
Every adapted càdlàg process of finite variation on compacts is a semi-
martingale. This follows from
Z t
sup φs dSs ≤ VarT0 (S) sup φt ,
0≤t≤T 0 0≤t≤T
where VarT0 (S) denotes the total variation of S on [0, T ]. A square integrable
càdlàg martingale is a semimartingale. For a simple predictable
R· process φ
of the form (12), and a square integrable martingale M , 0 φt dMt is also a
martingale and
Z T 2
E φt dMt ≤ sup φ2t E[MT2 ].
0 0≤t≤T,ω∈Ω
n
Suppose now that (φ ) is a sequence of simple predictable processes such that
φn → 0 ucp. Then, using the Chebyshev’s inequality and Doob’s inequality,
we get that
Z · ∗ Z · ∗
P n
φt dMt > ε ≤ P φt 1|φnt |≤C dMt > ε + P [(φn )∗ > C]
n
0 0
4C 2 E[MT2 ]
≤ + P [(φn )∗ > C] → 0,
ε2
because the first term can be made arbitrarily small by choosing C sufficiently
small, and the second term can be made small by choosing n sufficiently large.
Since the terms γt and Nt in the Lévy-Itô decomposition have finite vari-
ation and the terms Bt and Mt are square integrable martingales, every Lévy
process is a semimartingale.
A deep result of the general theory of processes [53] is that every semi-
martingale is the sum of a finite variation process and a local martingale.
The notion of local martingale extends that of the martingale: the process
(Xt ) is a local martingale if there exists a sequence of stopping times {Ti }i≥1
such that Ti → ∞ when i → ∞ and for each i, (XTi ∧t ) is a martingale.
17
4.2 Stochastic integral with respect to a Poisson ran-
dom measure
In the Lévy-Itô decomposition, we have already encountered integrals of de-
terministic functions with respect to Poisson random measures and compen-
sated Poisson random measures. In this section, our goal is to extend this
notion of integral to stochastic integrands.
Let M be a Poisson random measure of [0, T ] × R with intensity µ. µ is
supposed to be σ-finite: there exists a sequence Un ↑ R with µ([0, t]×Un ) < ∞
for all t. Typically, M will be the jump measure of a Lévy process. We would
like to define the integral of M or its compensated version with respect to a
predictable function φ : Ω × [0, T ] × R → R, that is, a function which satisfies
(i) For all t, (ω, x) 7→ φ(ω, t, x) is Ft × B(R)-measurable.
(ii) For all (ω, x) t 7→ φ(ω, t, x) is left-continuous.
The stochastic integral of φ with respect to M will be defined in two different
settings:
Case 1: φ satisfies
Z TZ
|φ(t, y)|M (dt × dy) < ∞ p.s.
0 R
P
In this case, the stochastic integral of φ with respect to M = δ(Ti ,yi ) is
defined as the absolutely convergent sum
Z tZ X
φ(t, y)M (dt × dy) := φ(Ti , yi ).
0 R i:Ti ≤t
In this case, the construction is more involved, since we need to use the L2
theory and continuous extension once again. We define simple predictable
functions φ : Ω × [0, T ] × R → R via
m
X n X
X m
φ(t, y) = φ0j 1t=0 1Aj (y) + φij 1(Ti ,Ti+1 ] (t)1Aj (y),
j=1 i=1 j=1
18
where T0 = 0, (Ti )i≥1 is a sequence of stopping times; for all j, Aj ∈ B(R)
is such that µ([0, t] × Aj ) < ∞ for all t; and for all i and j, φij is bounded
and FTi -measurable. The stochastic integral of a simple predictable function
with respect to M is defined by
Z tZ n,m
X X
φ(t, y)M (dt × dy) := φ(Ti , yi ) ≡ φij M ((Ti ∧ t, Ti+1 ∧ t] × Aj )
0 R i:Ti ≤t i,j=1
In a similar fashion, we can define the integral with respect to the compen-
sated measure M̃ = M − µ:
Z tZ
Xt = φ(t, y)M̃ (dt × dy)
0 R
n,m
X
:= φij {M ((Ti ∧ t, Ti+1 ∧ t] × Aj ) − µ((Ti ∧ t, Ti+1 ∧ t] × Aj )}
i,j=1
This isometry allows to extend the notion of stochastic integral with respect
to a compensated Poisson random measure to square integrable predictable
functions. Next, the localization procedure can be used to extend the defi-
nition to all functions φ adapted and left-continuous in t and measurable in
y, such that the process
Z tZ
At := φ2 (s, y)µ(ds × dy)
0 R
is locally integrable.
The stochastic integral with respect to a Poisson random measure is more
general than that with respect to a Poisson process: if S is a piecewise
constant Lévy process,
Z T X Z TZ
φt dSt = φt ∆St = φt yJS (dt × dy),
0 0 R
that is, the integral with respect to a process can be written as the integral
of a specific function with respect to the jump measure of the process.
19
The stochastic integral with respect to a Poisson random measure allows
us to define a new class of processes, which extends the notion of the Lévy
process, while still preserving an easy-to-understand mathematical structure:
many authors call this class Lévy-Itô processes. Recall that a Lévy process
satisfies (with a little change of notation)
Z tZ Z tZ
Xt = µt + σWt + xM (ds × dx) + xM̃ (ds × dx),
0 |x|>1 0 |x|≤1
where µ and σ are adapted locally bounded processes and γt (x) is an adapted
random function, left-continuous in t, measurable in x, such that the process:
Z
γt2 (x)ν(dx)
|x|≤1
is locally bounded.
The class of Lévy-Itô processes enjoys better stability properties than
that of Lévy processes: if (Xt ) is a Lévy-Itô process then for every function
f ∈ C 2 , (fR(Xt )) is also a Lévy-Itô process.
When |x|>1 |γt (x)|ν(dx) is also locally bounded, the process X can be
decomposed onto a ’martingale part’ and a ’drift part’:
Z t Z Z t Z tZ
Xt = (µs + γt (x)ν(dx))ds + σs dWs + γs (x)M̃ (ds × dx),
0 |x|>1 0 0 R
20
4.3 Change of variable formula for Lévy-Itô processes
In the absence of jumps, the change of variable formula (Itô formula) for a
function f ∈ C 2 takes the form
Z T
1 T 00
Z
0
f (XT ) = f (X0 ) + f (Xt )dXt + f (Xt )σt2 dt.
0 2 0
When the process has a finite number of jumps on [0, T ], one can write
Xt := Xtc + s≤t ∆Xs and apply the same formula between the jump times:
P
Z T Z T
c 1
X
0
f (XT ) = f (X0 )+ f (Xt )dXt + f 00 (Xt )σt2 dt+ {f (Xt )−f (Xt− )}.
0 2 0 t≤T :∆X 6=0 t
When the number of jumps is infinite, the latter sum may diverge, but we
still have
Z T
1 T 00
Z
0
f (XT ) = f (X0 ) + f (Xt− )dXt + f (Xt )σt2 dt
0 2 0
X
+ {f (Xt ) − f (Xt− ) − f 0 (Xt− )∆Xt }. (17)
t≤T :∆Xt 6=0
To make the decomposition (14) appear and show that the class of Lévy-Itô
processes is stable with respect to transformations with C 2 functions, we
rewrite the above expression as follows:
Z T
1
f (XT ) = f (X0 ) + {µt f 0 (Xt ) + σt2 f 00 (Xt )
0 2
Z
+ (f (Xt + γt (x)) − f (Xt ) − γt (x)f 0 (Xt ))ν(dx)}dt
|x|≤1
Z T Z T Z
0
+ f (Xt )σt dWt + (f (Xt− + γt (x)) − f (Xt− ))M̃ (dt × dx)
0 0 |x|≤1
Z T Z
+ (f (Xt− + γt (x)) − f (Xt− ))M (dt × dx)
0 |x|>1
21
Hint: Use Doob’s optional sampling theorem. Let (Xt ) be an (Ft )-martingale
and let S and T be bounded stopping times with S ≤ T a.s. Then,
Exercise 13. Let X be a Lévy-Itô process of the form (14), whose coefficients
µ, σ and γ are deterministic and bounded. Applying the change of variable
formula (17) to the function f (x) = eiux , show that the characteristic function
of XT is given by a generalized version of the Lévy-Khintchine formula.
Exercise 14. Let X be a Lévy-Itô process of the form (14) such that
σt2
Z
µt + + (eγt (x) − 1 − γt (x)1|x|≤1 )ν(dx) = 0
2 R
a.s. for all t. Using the change of variable formula (17), show that eXt can
be written in the form (15)R with coefficients to be defined.
γt (x)
Assuming that σt and R (e − 1)2 ν(dx) are a.s bounded by a constant
C, use the isometry relation (16) and Gronwall’s lemma to show that (eXt )
is a square integrable martingale.
22
5 Stochastic exponential of a jump process
Proposition 7 (Stochastic exponential). Let (Xt )t≥0 be a Lévy-Itô process
with volatility coefficient σ. There exists a unique cadlag process (Z)t≥0 such
that
Z is given by:
1
Rt
σs2 ds
Y
Zt = eXt − 2 0 (1 + ∆Xs )e−∆Xs . (19)
0≤s≤t
Proof. Let
Y
Vt = (1 + ∆Xs )e−∆Xs .
0≤s≤t;∆Xs 6=0
The first step is to show that this process exists and is of finite variation. We
decompose V into a product of two terms: Vt = Vt0 Vt00 , where
Y Y
Vt0 = (1 + ∆Xs )e−∆Xs and Vt00 = (1 + ∆Xs )e−∆Xs .
0≤s≤t 0≤s≤t
|∆Xs |≤1/2 |∆Xs |>1/2
Therefore, the series is decreasing and bounded from below by − 0≤s≤t ∆Xs2 ,
P
which is finite for every Lévy-Itô process. Hence, (ln Vt0 ) exists and is a de-
creasing process. This entails that (Vt ) exists and has trajectories of finite
variation.
23
The second step is to apply the Itô formula to the function Zt ≡ f (t, Xt , Vt ) ≡
Rt 2
Xt − 12
0 s ds V . This yields (in differential form)
σ
e t
σt2 Xt − 1 R t σs2 ds 1 t 2
R 1 t 2
R
dZt = − e 2 0 Vt dt + eXt− − 2 0 σs ds Vt− dXt + eXt− − 2 0 σs ds dVt
2
σt2 Xt − 1 R t σs2 ds 1 t 2
R 1 t 2
R
+ e 2 0 Vt dt + eXt − 2 0 σs ds Vt − eXt− − 2 0 σs ds Vt−
2
1 t 2 1 t 2
R R
− eXt− − 2 0 σs ds Vt− ∆Xt − eXt− − 2 0 σs ds ∆Vt .
Substituting this into the above equality and making all the cancellations
yields the Equation (18).
(1) (2)
To understand why the solution is unique, observe that if (Zt ) and (Zt )
(1) (2)
satisfy the Equation (18), then their difference Z̃t = Zt − Zt satisfies the
same equation with initial condition Z̃0 = 0. From the form of this equation,
it is clear that if the solution is equal to zero at some point, it will remain
zero.
Z is called the stochastic exponential or the Doléans-Dade exponential of
X and is denoted by Z = E(X).
24
Proposition 8 (Relation between ordinary and stochastic exponentials).
1. Let (Xt )t≥0 be a real valued Lévy process with Lévy triplet (σ 2 , ν, γ) and
Z = E(X) its stochastic exponential. If Z > 0 a.s. then there exists
another Lévy process (Lt )t≥0 with triplet (σL2 , νL , γL ) such that Zt = eLt
where
σ2t X
Lt = ln Zt = Xt − + ln(1 + ∆Xs ) − ∆Xs . (20)
2 0≤s≤t
σL = σ,
Z
νL (A) = ν({x : ln(1 + x) ∈ A}) = 1A (ln(1 + x))ν(dx), (21)
σ2
Z
γL = γ − + ν(dx) ln(1 + x)1[−1,1] (ln(1 + x)) − x1[−1,1] (x) .
2
2. Let (Lt )t≥0 be a real valued Lévy process with Lévy triplet (σL2 , νL , γL )
and St = exp Lt its exponential. Then there exists a Lévy process
(Xt )t≥0 such that St is the stochastic exponential of X: S = E(X)
where
σ2t X
e∆Ls − 1 − ∆Ls .
X t = Lt + + (22)
2 0≤s≤t
σ = σL ,
Z
ν(A) = νL ({x : e − 1 ∈ A}) = 1A (ex − 1)νL (dx),
x
(23)
σL2
Z
+ νL (dx) (ex − 1)1[−1,1] (ex − 1) − x1[−1,1] (x) .
γ = γL +
2
Proof. 1. The condition Z > 0 a.s. is equivalent to ∆Xs > −1 for all s
a.s., so taking the logarithm Pis justified
here. In the proof
of Proposition 7
we have seen that the sum 0≤s≤t ln(1 + ∆Xs ) − ∆Xs converges and is a
finite variation process. Then it is clear that L is a Lévy process and that
σL = σ. Moreover, ∆Ls = ln(1 + ∆Xs ) for all s. This entails that
Z
JL ([0, t] × A) = 1A (ln(1 + x))JX (ds dx)
[0,t]×R
25
R
and also νL (A) = 1A (ln(1 + x))ν(dx). It remains to compute γL . Substi-
tuting the Lévy-Itô decomposition for (Lt ) and (Xt ) into (20), we obtain
σ2t
Z Z
γL t − γt + + ˜
xJL (ds dx) + xJL (ds dx)
2 s∈[0,t],|x|≤1 s∈[0,t],|x|>1
Z Z
− ˜
xJX (ds dx) − xJX (ds dx)
s∈[0,t],|x|≤1 s∈[0,t],|x|>1
X
− ln(1 + ∆Xs ) − ∆Xs = 0.
0≤s≤t
Observing that
Z
x(JL (ds dx) − JX (ds dx))
s∈[0,t],|x|≤1
X
= ∆Xs 1[−1,1] (∆Xs ) − ln(1 + ∆Xs )1[−1,1] (ln(1 + ∆Xs ))
0≤s≤t
converges, we can split the above expression into jump part and drift part,
both of which must be equal to zero. For the drift part we obtain:
Z 1
σ2
γL − γ + − {xνL (dx) − xν(dx)} = 0,
2 −1
26
CPPI strategy in the presence of jumps The CPPI (constant propor-
tion portfolio insurance) is a portfolio insurance strategy which allows (in
theory) to keep the portfolio value above a fixed level, while still preserving
some upside potential in case of a favorable market evolution.
To fix the ideas, suppose that the portfolio manager has promised to
the investor a guaraneed capital of N at maturity T (N can be greater or
smaller than the initial investment). To achieve this, the portfolio value Vt
must remain at each date t above the floor Bt , which is equal to the price
of the zero-coupon bond with notional N and maturity T . The difference
Ct = Vt − Bt is called cushion and the CPPI strategy uses the following
algorithm:
• At each date t, if Vt > Bt , invest mCt in the risky asset, where m > 1 is
called the multiplier, and the rest into zero-coupon bonds with maturity
T.
If µ > r, there seems to be a paradox: there is no risk and the expected return
can be made arbitrarily large by choosing m big enough. This paradox is
easily solved if the price trajectories are allowed to jump, since in this case,
if the multiplier increases, the loss probability increases as well.
27
Let
dSt
= rdt + dZt ,
St−
where Z is a Lévy process and let τ = inf{t : Vt ≤ Bt } be the first date when
the portfolio passes below the floor (it is possible that τ = ∞). Before τ , the
cushion satisfies
dCt
= mdZt + rdt,
Ct−
and the discounted cushion Ct∗ := Ct
ert
is therefore given by
Ct∗ = E(mZ)t , t < τ.
After τ , the entire portfolio is invested into the risk-free asset, which means
that the discounted cushion remains constant. Therefore,
Ct∗ = E(mZ)t∧τ .
The loss occurs if at some date t ≤ T , Ct∗ ≤ 0, which can happen if and only
if Z has a jump in the interval [0, T ] whose size is less than −1/m. We then
get (see exercise 7)
!
Z −1/m
P [∃t ∈ [0, T ] : Vt ≤ Bt ] = 1 − exp −T ν(dx) .
−∞
28
6 Exponential Lévy models
The Black-Scholes model
dSt
= µdt + σdWt
St
2
can be equivalently rewritten in the exponential form St = S0 e(µ−σ /2)t+σWt .
This gives us two possibilities to construct an exponential Lévy model start-
ing from a (one-dimensional) Lévy process X: using the stochastic differential
equation:
dStsde
sde
= rdt + dXt , (24)
St−
or using the ordinary exponential
Stexp = S0exp ert+Xt , (25)
where we explicitly included the interest rate r (assumed constant) in the
formulas, to simplify notation later on. The subsctipts sde for stochastic
differential equation and exp for exponential, used here to emphasize the
fact that S sde and S exp are different processes, will be omitted later on when
there is no ambiguity. Sometimes it will be convenient to discount the price
processes with the numéraire B(t, T ) = e−r(T −t) for some fixed maturity T .
St
In this case Ŝt := B(t,T )
= er(T −t) St and the equations become
dŜt
= dXt (26)
Ŝt−
or Ŝt = Ŝ0 eXt , (27)
29
where (Yi ) are i.i.d. and N is a Poisson process.
In the Merton model (see Example 1), which is the first model of this
type, suggested in the literature, jumps in the log-price X are assumed to
have a Gaussian distribution: Yi ∼ N (µ, δ 2 ).
In the Kou model [42], jump sizes are distributed according to an asym-
metric Laplace law with a density of the form
ν0 (dx) = [pλ+ e−λ+ x 1x>0 + (1 − p)λ− e−λ− |x| 1x<0 ]dx (29)
with λ+ > 0, λ− > 0 governing the decay of the tails for the distribution of
positive and negative jump sizes and p ∈ [0, 1] representing the probability
of an upward jump. The probability distribution of returns in this model has
semi-heavy (exponential) tails.
The second category consists of models with an infinite number of jumps
in every interval, called infinite activity or infinite intensity models. In these
models, one does not need to introduce a Brownian component since the
dynamics of jumps is already rich enough to generate nontrivial small time
behavior [14].
The variance gamma process [15, 48] (see Example 2) is obtained by
time-changing a Brownian motion with a gamma subordinator and has the
characteristic exponent of the form:
1 u2 σ 2 κ
ψ(u) = − log(1 + − iθκu). (30)
κ 2
The density of the Lévy measure of the variance gamma process is given by
c −λ− |x| c
ν(x) = e 1x<0 + e−λ+ x 1x>0 , (31)
|x| x
√2 2 √2 2
θ +2σ /κ θ θ +2σ /κ
where c = 1/κ, λ+ = σ2
− σ2 and λ− = σ2
+ σθ2 .
To define the tempered stable process, introduced by Koponen [41] and
also known under the name of CGMY model [14], one specifies directly the
Lévy density:
c− c+
ν(x) = 1+α
e−λ− |x| 1x<0 + 1+α+ e−λ+ x 1x>0 (32)
|x| − x
30
7 The Esscher transform and absence of ar-
bitrage in exponential Lévy models
7.1 Measure changes for Lévy processes
To find out whether a given exponential Lévy model is suitable for financial
modeling, one needs to ensure that it does not contain arbitrage opportu-
nities, a property which, by the fundamental theorem of asset pricing, is
guaranteed by the existence of an equivalent martingale measure. The no ar-
bitrage equivalences for exponential Lévy models were studied in [37, 19, 66]
in the one-dimensional unconstrained case and more recently in [40] in the
multidimensional case with convex constraints on trading strategies. In this
section, we start by reviewing the one-dimensional result, and then provide a
multidimensional result (Theorem 3) which is valid in the unconstrained case
only but is more explicit than the one in [40] and clarifies the link between
the geometric properties of the Lévy measure and the arbitrage opportunities
in the model.
In the Black-Scholes model, the unique equivalent martingale measure
could be obtained by changing the drift of the Brownian motion. In models
with jumps, if the Gaussian component is absent, this is no longer possible,
but a much greater variety of equivalent measures can be obtained by altering
the distribution of jumps. The following proposition describes the possible
measure changes under which a Lévy process remains a Lévy process.
Proposition 9 (see Sato [59], Theorems 33.1 and 33.2). Let (X,P) be a
Lévy process on Rd with characteristic triplet (A, ν, γ); choose η ∈ Rd and
φ : Rd → R with
Z
(eφ(x)/2 − 1)2 ν(dx) < ∞. (33)
Rd
and define Z tZ
Ut := η.X + c
(eφ(x) − 1)J˜X (ds dx),
0 Rd
where X c denotes the continuous martingale (Brownian motion) part of X,
and J˜X is the compensated jump measure of X.
Then E(U )t is a positive martingale such that the probability measure P0
defined by
dP0 |Ft
= E(U )t , (34)
dP|Ft
31
is equivalent to P and under P0 , X is a Lévy process with characteristic triplet
(A, ν 0 , γ 0 ) where ν 0 = eφ ν and
Z
0
γ =γ+ x(ν 0 − ν)(dx) + Aη. (35)
|x|≤1
32
7.2 One-dimensional models
We start with the one-dimensional case. In the sequel, cc(A) denotes the
smallest convex cone containing A and ri(A) denotes the relative interior of
the set A, that is, the interior of A in the smallest linear subspace containing
A. In particular, ri({0}) = {0}.
Theorem 2 (Absence of arbitrage in models based on stochastic exponen-
tials, one-dimensional case).
Let (X, P) be a real-valued Lévy process on [0, T ] with characteristic triplet
2
(σ , ν, γ). The following statements are equivalent:
1. There exists a probability Q equivalent to P such that (X, Q) is a Lévy
process and a martingale.
2. Either X ≡ 0 or (X, P) is not a.s. monotone.
3. One of the following conditions is satisfied:
(i) σ > 0.
R
(ii) σ = 0 and |x|≤1 |x|ν(dx) = ∞.
R
(iii) σ = 0, |x|≤1 |x|ν(dx) < ∞ and −b ∈ ri(cc(supp ν)), where b =
R
γ − |x|≤1 xν(dx) is the drift of X.
Condition 2. implies that if an exponential Lévy model admits an arbi-
trage, it can be realized by a buy-and-hold strategy (if X is increasing) or a
corresponding short sale (if X is decreasing).
R It is easy to see that condition (iii) above is satisfied if and only if σ = 0,
|x|≤1
|x|ν(dx) < ∞ and one of the following is true:
• ν((−∞, 0)) > 0 and ν((0, ∞)) > 0.
• ν((−∞, 0)) > 0 and b > 0.
• ν((0, ∞)) > 0 and b < 0.
• The trivial case of a constant process: ν = 0 and b = 0.
In other words, when a finite-variation Lévy process has one-sided jumps, it
is arbitrage-free if the jumps and the drift point in opposite directions.
Before proceeding with the proof of theorem 2, we will show that for
one-dimensional exponential Lévy models of the form (27), the no-arbitrage
conditions are actually the same as for stochastic exponentials.
33
Corollary 3 (Absence of arbitrage in models based on ordinary exponential,
one-dimensional case). Let (X, P) be a real-valued Lévy process on [0, T ] with
characteristic triplet (σ 2 , ν, γ). The following statements are equivalent:
(i) σ > 0.
R
(ii) σ = 0 and |x|≤1 |x|ν(dx) = ∞.
R
(iii) σ = 0, |x|≤1 |x|ν(dx) < ∞ and −b ∈ ri(cc(supp ν)).
and it is readily seen that the monotonicity properties of X and log E(X) are
the same.
Proof of theorem 2. We exclude the trivial case X ≡ 0 a.s. which clearly does
not constitute an arbitrage opportunity (every probability is a martingale
measure).
The equivalence 2 ⇐⇒ 3 follows from [20, Proposition 3.10].
3 ⇒ 1. Define a probability P̃ equivalent to P by
Z · Z
dP̃|FT −x2 ˜
=E (e − 1)JX (ds dx)
dP|FT 0 R T
2
Under P̃, X has characteristic triplet (σ 2 , ν̃, γ̃) with ν̃ = e−x ν and γ̃ =
2
γ + |x|≤1 x(e−x − 1)ν(dx). It is easy to see that E P̃ [eλXt ] < ∞ for all λ ∈ R
R
34
Suppose that the convex function λ 7→ E P̃ [eλX1 ] has a finite minimizer
∗
λ∗ . Then, using the dominated convergence theorem, E P̃ [X1 eλ X1 ] = 0 which
implies that X is a Q-martingale with
∗
dQ|Ft eλ Xt
= (Essher transform)
dP̃|Ft E[eλ∗ Xt ]
σ2 2
Z
2
f (λ) = log E [e ] = λ + γ̃λ + (eλx − 1 − λx1|x|≤1 )e−x ν(dx).
P̃ λX1
2 R
and it is not difficult to check that limλ→+∞ f 0 (λ) = +∞ and limλ→−∞ f 0 (λ) =
−∞ which means that f (λ) → ∞ as λ → ∞. In case (iii),
Z
2
f (λ) = b + xeλx e−x ν(dx),
0
R
and it is easy to see, by examining one by one the different mutually exclusive
cases listed after the statement of the Theorem, that in each of these cases f 0
is bounded from below on R and therefore once again, f (λ) → ∞ as λ → ∞.
1 ⇒ 2. It is clear that a process cannot be a martingale under one
probability and a.s. monotone under an equivalent probability, unless it is
constant.
35
linear subspace L ⊆ Rd containing all vectors w ∈ Rd such that w.X is a
finite variation process. From proposition 3.8 and theorem 4.1 in [20], it
follows that
Z
d
L = N (A) ∩ {w ∈ R : |w.x|ν(dx) < ∞},
|x|≤1
36
is always satisfied if the process X has no finite-variation components: in
this case L = {0} and condition 3. reduces to 0 ∈ {0}. If the process is
of finite variation, this condition reduces to −b ∈ ri(cc(supp ν)), that is, the
drift and the finite variation jumps must point in opposite directions.
Proof of theorem 3. 1 ⇒ 2 is readily obtained by an application of Theorem
2 to the process w.X.
2 ⇒ 1. By an argument similar to the one in the proof of Theorem 2,
we can suppose without loss of generality that for all λ ∈ Rd , E[eλ.X1 ] < ∞.
The function f : λ 7→ E[eλ.X1 ] < ∞ is then a proper convex differentiable
∗
function on Rd and if λ∗ is a minimizer of this function, E[X1i eλ .X1 ] = 0 for
all i = 1, . . . , d and we can define an equivalent martingale measure Q using
the Esscher transform ∗
dQ|Ft eλ .X1
:= .
dP|Ft E[eλ∗ .X1 ]
Suppose that w.X is a Lévy process satisfying conditions 2 or 3 of Theorem
2. Then it follows from the proof of this theorem that w.X is either constant
or limλ→∞ E[eλw.X1 ] = ∞. Hence, the function f is constant along every
recession direction, which implies that f attains its minimum (Theorem 27.1
in [55]).
2 ⇒ 3. Suppose −bL ∈ / ri(cc(supp ν L )). Then −bL can be weakly sepa-
rated from cc(supp ν L ) by a hyperplane contained in L, passing through the
origin, and which does not contain −bL or cc(supp ν L ) completely (theorems
11.3 and 11.7 in [55]). This means that there exists w ∈ L such that
with either bL .w > 0 or x.w > 0 for some x ∈ supp ν L . In this case,
ri(cc(supp ν w )) is either {0} or (0, ∞), where the measure ν w is defined
by ν w (A) := ν L ({x ∈ L : w.x ∈ A}). If bL .w > 0, this implies that
−bL .w ∈/ ri(cc(supp ν w )). If bL .w = 0 then necessarily x.w > 0 for some
x ∈ supp ν L which means that in this case ri(cc(supp ν w )) = (0, ∞) and once
again −bL .w ∈ / ri(cc(supp ν w )). In both cases, we have obtained a contradic-
tion with 2.
3 ⇒ 2. Assume that −bL ∈ ri(cc(supp ν L )) and let w ∈ Rd . If w ∈ / L
than w.X has infinite variation and the claim is shown. Assume that w ∈ L
and let Rw := ri(cc(supp ν w )). Rw can be equal to R, half-axis or a single
point {0}. If Rw = R, there is nothing to prove. In the two other cases,
37
−b.w ∈/ Rw means that w weakly separates −bL from cc(supp ν L ) in such
a way that either bL .w > 0 or x.w > 0 for some x ∈ supp ν L , which is a
contradiction with 3.
• If the Lévy measure ν X of X has full support then the Lévy measure
ν Y of Y satisfies cc(supp ν Y ) = Rd , which implies that the model is
arbitrage-free.
38
Exercise 19.
• Let X be a Lévy process and let f : R → (0, ∞). What condition must
be imposed on the function f for the sum
X
f (∆Xt )
t∈[0,1]:∆Xt 6=0
to converge a.s.?
1
• Let (X, P ) be a Lévy process with Lévy measure |x|1+α and let (X, Q)
be a Lévy process with Lévy measure |x|1+α0 (with α > 0 and α0 > 0).
1
39
We consider a European option with pay-off G(ST ) = G(ŜT ) at time T and
denote by g its log-payoff function: G(ex ) ≡ g(x). As above, we denote by
Φt the characteristic function of Xt .
Then the price at time t of the European option with pay-off function G
satisfies
where Z
ĝ(u) := eiux g(x)dx.
R
Suppose that R > 0 (the case R < 0 can be treated in a similar manner) and
consider the function Z ∞
Rx
f (x) = e p(dz),
x
40
and therefore limx→∞ f (x) = 0. Clearly also limx→−∞ f (x) = 0. By integra-
tion by parts,
Z N
1 N Rx
Z
1
f (x)dx = e p(dx) + (f (N ) − f (−N ).
−N R −N R
Example 3. The digital option has pay-off G(ST ) = 1ST ≥K . In this case for
all R > 0 conditions (37) and (38) are satisfied and
K iu−R
ĝ(u + iR) = .
R − iu
Example 4. The European call option has pay-off G(ST ) = (ST −K)+ . There-
fore, conditions (37) and (38) are satisfied for all R > 1,
K iu+1−R
ĝ(u + iR) = .
(R − iu)(R − 1 − iu)
41
and the price of a call option can be written as an inverse Fourier transform:
e−r(T −t) K iu+1−R ŜtR−iu ΦT −t (−u − iR)
Z
C(t, St ) = du
2π R (R − iu)(R − 1 − iu)
Z kf (iu+1−R)
St e ΦT −t (−u − iR)
= du (48)
2π R (R − iu)(R − 1 − iu)
where k f is the log forward moneyness defined by k f = ln(K/St ) − r(T − t).
This property allows to compute call option prices for many values of k f in
a single computation using the FFT algorithm as explained below.
42
where εT is the truncation error, εD is the discretization error, vm = −A/2 +
m∆, ∆ = A/(N − 1) is the discretization step and wm are weights, cor-
responding to the chosen integration rule (for instance, for the trapezoidal
rule w0 = wN −1 = 1/2 and all other weights are equal to 1). Now, setting
knf = k0f + N
2πn
∆
we see that the sum in the last term becomes a discrete Fourier
transform:
N −1
A iknf A/2 X f
e wm e−ik0 vm f (km
f
)e−2πinm/N
2πN m=0
The FFT algorithm allows to compute option prices for the log strikes knf =
k0f + N
2πn
∆
. The log strikes are thus equidistant with the step d satisfying
2π
d∆ = .
N
Typically, k0f is chosen so that the grid is centered around the money, ∆ is
fixed to keep the discretization error low, and N is adjusted to keep the trun-
cation error low and have a sufficiently small step between strikes (increasing
N reduces the truncation error and the distance between consecutive strikes
at the same time). The option prices for the strikes not on the grid must
be computed by interpolation. It should be noted that the FFT method
should only be used when option prices for many strikes must be computed
simultaneously (such as for calibration). If only a small number of strikes
is needed, integration methods with variable step size usually have a better
performance.
.
∂C 1 2 2 ∂ 2 C ∂C
+ σ S 2
= rC − rS .
∂t 2 ∂S ∂S
43
Let X be a Lévy process such that eX is a martingale under Q (risk-
neutral probability) and the price of the underlying asset is given by St =
S0 ert+Xt . Then the price at time t of the European option
The process e−rt PtB is therefore a martingale. Define now P B (t, S) as the
deterministic function given by
1 2 2 ∂ 2 P̃
∂ P̃ ∂ P̃
dP̃ (t, St ) = + rS + St σ
∂t ∂S 2 ∂S 2
Z !
x x ∂ P̃
+ P̃ (t, St e ) − P̃ (t, St ) − St (e − 1) ν(dx)
R ∂S
Z
∂ P̃
+ σSt dWt + (P̃ (t, St ex ) − P̃ (t, St ))J˜X (dt × dx).
∂S R
We can then state the following result (results of this type are known as
verification theorems):
44
Proposition 11. Let P (t, S) be a function which is differentiable with respect
to t once and with respect to S twice, such that the derivative ∂P
∂S
is bounded,
and assume that P satisfies the equation
∂P 1 2 2 ∂ 2 P
Z
x x ∂P ∂P
+ S σ + P (t, Se ) − P (t, S) − S(e − 1) ν(dx) = rP −rS
∂t 2 ∂S 2 R ∂S ∂S
with the terminal condition P (T, S) = (S − K)+ . Then the price at time t
of a European call option with maturity T and strike K is given by P (t, St ).
10 Gap options
The gap options are a class of exotic equity derivatives offering protection
against rapid downside market moves (gaps). These options have zero delta,
allowing to make bets on large downside moves of the underlying without in-
troducing additional sensitivity to small fluctuations, just as volatility deriva-
tives allow to make bets on volatility without going short or long delta. The
market for gap options is relatively new, and they are known under many
different names: gap options, crash notes, gap notes, daily cliquets, gap risk
swaps etc. The gap risk often arises in the context of constant proportion
portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategies [23] and other leveraged products such
as the leveraged credit-linked notes. The sellers of gap options (who can
be seen as the buyers of the protection against gap risk) are typically ma-
jor banks who want to get off their books the risk associated to CPPI or
other leveraged products. The buyers of gap options and the sellers of the
protection are usually hedge funds looking for extra returns.
The pay-off of a gap option is linked to the occurrence of a gap event, that
is, a 1-day downside move of sufficient size in the underlying. The following
45
single-name gap option was commercialized by a big international bank in
2007 under the name of gap risk swap:
Example 5 (Single-name gap option).
• The protection seller pays the notional amount N to the protection
buyer at inception and receives Libor + spread monthly until maturity
or the first occurrence of the gap event, whichever comes first, plus the
notional at maturity if no gap event occurs.
46
The gap options are designed to capture stock jumps, and clearly cannot
be priced within a diffusion model with continuous paths, since any such
model will largely underestimate the gap risk. For instance, for a stock with
a 25% volatility, the probability of having an 10% gap on any one day during
one year is 3 × 10−8 , and the probability of a 20% gap is entirely negligible.
Definition 10 (Gap option). Let α denote the return level which triggers
the gap event and k ∗ be the time of first gap expressed in the units of ∆:
k ∗ := inf{k : Rk∆ ≤ α}. The gap option is an option which pays to its holder
the amount f (Rk∆∗ ) at time ∆k ∗ , if k ∗ ≤ N and nothing otherwise.
Proposition 12. Let the log-returns (Rk∆ )Nk=1 be i.i.d. and denote the distri-
bution of log R1∆ by p∆ (dx). Then the price of a gap option as of definition
10 is given by
R N
−rT ∞
Z β 1−e β
p∆ (dx)
G∆ = e−r∆ f (ex )p∆ (dx) R∞ , (51)
−∞ 1− e−r∆ β p∆ (dx)
47
Proof.
∗
G∆ = E e−∆k r f (Rk∆∗ )1k∗ ≤N
N
X
= P[k ∗ = n]E[f (Rn∆ )|k ∗ = n]e−∆nr
n=1
XN n−1
Y
−∆nr
= P[Rn∆ ≤ α]E[f (Rn∆ )|Rn∆ ≤ α]e P[Rl∆ > α]
n=1 l=1
R N
∞
Z β 1 − e−rT β p∆ (dx)
= e−r∆ f (ex )p∆ (dx) R∞ .
−∞ 1 − e−r∆ β p∆ (dx)
Let
R φ∆ be the characteristic function of p∆ , and suppose that p∆ satisfies
R |φ∆ (u)|
|x|p∆ (dx) < ∞ and R 1+|u| du < ∞. Let F 0 be the CDF and φ0 the
characteristic function of a Gaussian random variable with zero mean and
standard deviation σ 0 > 0. Then by Lemma 1 in [23],
φ0 (u) − φ∆ (u)
Z
0 1
F∆ (x) = F (x) + e−iux du. (53)
2π R iu
The Gaussian random variable is only needed to obtain an integrable expres-
sion in the right hand side and can be replaced by any other well-behaved
random variable.
The integral (52) is nothing but the price of a European option with
payoff function f and maturity ∆. For arbitrary f it can be evaluated using
the Fourier transform method as described in section 8. For the numerical
evaluation, the integrals must be truncated to a finite interval [−L, L]. Since
∆ is small, the characteristic function φ∆ (u) decays slowly at infinity, which
means that L must be sufficiently large (for example, in a jump-diffusion
48
model with volatility σ, L ∼ σ√C∆ , where C is a constant which depends on
the desired precision, such as C = 5 — see [67]). The computation of the
integrals will therefore be rather costly. For this reason, we do not recommend
to use the exact formula, and propose an approximation, which is based on
an expansion of G∆ around the value ∆ = 0. In other words, instead of
using a numerical method whose computational complexity increases when
∆ is small, we suggest an explicit formula whose precision improves when
∆ → 0.
Our second approximation is less trivial. From [58], we know that for all
Lévy processes and under very mild hypotheses on the function f , we have
Z β Z β
g(x)p∆ (dx) ∼ ∆ g(x)ν(dx),
−∞ −∞
49
of a modified gap option rather than the true price of the original option.
From now on, we define the single-asset gap option as follows.
with β := log α.
The gap option then arises as a pure jump risk product, which is only
sensitive to negative jumps larger than β in absolute value, but not to small
fluctuations of the underlying. In particular, it has zero delta.
50
where (X 1 , . . . , X M ) is an M -dimensional Lévy process with Lévy measure
ν. We make the same simplifying hypothesis as in definition 11, that is, we
define a gap event as a negative jump smaller than a given value β in any
of the assets, rather than a negative daily return. From now on, we define a
multiname gap option as follows.
Definition 12. For a given β < 0, let
M
X
Nt = #{(s, i) : s ≤ t, 1 ≤ i ≤ M and ∆Xsi ≤ β} (56)
i=1
be the process counting the total number of gap events in the basket before
time t. The multiname gap option is a product which pays to its holder the
amount f (NT ) at time T .
The pay-off function f for a typical multiname gap option is given in
example 6. Notice that the single-name gap option stops at the first gap
event, whereas in the multiname case the gap events are counted up to the
maturity of the product.
The biggest difficulty in the multidimensional case, is that now we have
to model simultaneous jumps in the prices of different underlyings. The
multidimensional Lévy measures can be conveniently described using their
tail integrals. The tail integral U describes the intensity of simultaneous
jumps in all components smaller than the components of a given vector.
Given an M -dimensional Lévy measure ν, we define the tail integral of ν by
U (z1 , . . . , zM ) = ν({x ∈ RM : x1 ≤ z1 , . . . , xM ≤ zM }), z1 , . . . , zM < 0.
(57)
The tail integral can also be defined for positive z (see [38]), but we do not
introduce this here since we are only interested in jumps smaller than a given
negative value.
To describe the intensity of simultaneous jumps of a subset of the com-
ponents of X, we define the marginal tail integral: for m ≤ M and 1 ≤ i1 <
· · · < im ≤ M , the (i1 , . . . , im )-marginal tail integral of ν is defined by
Ui1 ,...,im (z1 , . . . , zm ) = ν({x ∈ RM : xi1 ≤ z1 , . . . , xim ≤ zm }), z1 , . . . , zm < 0.
(58)
The process N counting the total number of gap events in the basket is
clearly a piecewise constant increasing integer-valued process which moves
51
only by jumps of integer size. The jump sizes can vary from 1 (in case of a
gap event affecting a single component) to M (simultaneous gap event in all
components). The following lemma describes the structure of this process
via the tail integrals of ν.
Lemma 2. The process N counting the total number of gap events is a Lévy
process with integer jump sizes 1, . . . , M occurring with intensities λ1 , . . . , λM
given by
M
X X
λm = (−1)k−m k
Cm Ui1 ,...,ik (β, . . . , β), 1 ≤ m ≤ M, (59)
k=m 1≤i1 <···<ik ≤M
k
where Cm denotes the binomial coefficient and the second sum is taken over
all possible sets of k integer indices satisfying 1 ≤ i1 < · · · < ik ≤ M .
M
X −m X
= Ui1 ,...,im (β, . . . , β) + (−1)p Ui1 ,...,im ,j1 ,...,jp (β, . . . , β)
p=1 1≤j1 <···<jp ≤M
{j1 ,...,jp }∩{i1 ,...,im }=∅
Combining this equation with (60) and gathering the terms with identical
tail integrals, one obtains (59).
52
The process N can equivalently be represented as
M
X (m)
Nt = mNt ,
m=1
where λ := M
P
i=1 λi . In practice, after a certain number of gap events, the
gap option has zero pay-off and the sum in (61) reduces to a finite number
of terms. In example 6, f (n) ≡ 0 for n ≥ 4 and
n (λ1 T )2
E[f (NT )] = e−λT 1 + λ1 T + + λ2 T (62)
2
(λ1 T )3 λ1 λ2 T 2 λ3 T o
+ + + . (63)
12 2 2
The price of the protection (premium over the risk-free rate received by the
protection seller) is given by the discounted expectation of 1 − f (NT ), that
is,
To make computations with the formula (61), one needs to evaluate the
tail integral of ν and all its marginal tail integrals. These objects are de-
termined both by the individual gap intensities of each component and by
the dependence among the components of the multidimensional process. For
modeling purposes, the dependence structure can be separated from the be-
havior of individual components via the notion of Lévy copula [20, 38], which
is parallel to the notion of copula but defined at the level of jumps of a Lévy
process. More precisely we will use the positive Lévy copulas which describe
the one-sided (in this case, only downward) jumps of a Lévy process, as
opposed to general Lévy copulas which are useful when both upward and
downward jumps are of interest.
53
Positive Lévy copulas Let R := (−∞, ∞] denote the extended real line,
d
and for a, b ∈ R let us write a ≤ b if ak ≤ bk , k = 1, . . . , d. In this case,
(a, b] denotes the interval
2. F is d-increasing,
The positive Lévy copula has the same properties as ordinary copula but is
defined on a different domain ([0, ∞]d instead of [0, 1]d ). Higher-dimensional
margins of a positive Lévy copula are defined similarly:
The Lévy copula links the tail integral to one-dimensional margins; the
following result is a direct corollary of Theorem 3.6 in [38].
54
Proposition 14.
Ui1 ,...,im (x1 , . . . , xm ) = Fi1 ,...,im (Ui1 (x1 ), . . . , Uim (xm )) (65)
for any nonempty index set {i1 , . . . , im } ⊆ {1, . . . , d} and any (x1 , . . . , xm ) ∈
(−∞, 0)m .
In terms of the Lévy copula F of X and its marginal tail integrals, formula
(59) can be rewritten as
M
X X
λm = (−1)k−m k
Cm Fi1 ,...,ik (Ui1 (β), . . . , Uik (β))
k=m 1≤i1 <···<ik ≤M
To compute the intensities λi and price the gap option, it is therefore suffi-
cient to know the individual gap intensities Ui (β) (M real numbers), which
can be estimated from 1-dimensional gap option prices or from the prices of
short-term put options and the Lévy copula F . This Lévy copula will typi-
cally be chosen in some suitable parametric family. One convenient choice is
the Clayton family of (positive) Lévy copulas defined by
−θ
−1/θ
F θ (u1 , . . . , uM ) = u−θ
1 + · · · + uM . (66)
55
Clayton Lévy copula then all lower-dimensional margins also have Clayton
Lévy copula:
−1/θ
Fiθ1 ,...,im (u1 , . . . , um ) = u−θ −θ
1 + · · · + um .
This formula can be used directly for baskets of reasonable size (say, less than
20 names). For very large baskets, one can make the simplifying assumption
that all individual stocks have the same gap intensity: Uk (β) = U1 (β) for all
k. In this case, formula (59) reduces to the following simple result:
where
M −m
M
X (−1)j CjM −m
λm = U1 (β)Cm (67)
j=0
(m + j)1/θ
56
0.030
lambda1
lambda2
0.025
lambda10
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
theta
Figure 1: The intensities λi of different jump sizes of the gap counting process
as a function of θ for M = 10 names and a single-name loss probability of
1%.
0.014 0.0020
0.012
0.0015
0.010
0.008
0.0010
0.006
0.004
0.0005
0.002
0.000 0.0000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20
Figure 2: Left: Expected loss of a multi-name gap option in the Credit Suisse
example as a function of the dependence parameter θ. The single-name loss
probability is 1%. Right: zoom of the right graph for small values of θ.
57
in agreement with the behavior observed in Figure 1.
Figure 2 shows the price of the multiname gap option of example 6 com-
puted using the formula (64). The price achieves a maximum for a finite
nonzero value of θ. This happens because for this particular payoff struc-
ture, the protection seller does not lose money if only 1 or 2 gap events occur
during the lifetime of the product, and only starts to pay after 3 or more
gap events. The probability of having 3 or more gap events is very low with
independent components.
11 Implied volatility
Recall the well-known Black-Scholes formula for call option prices:
This value is called the (Black-Scholes) implied volatility of the option. For
fixed (T, K), the implied volatility Σt (T, K) is in general a stochastic process
and, for fixed t, its value depends on the characteristics of the option such as
the maturity T and the strike level K: the function Σt : (T, K) → Σt (T, K)
is called the implied volatility surface at date t (see Figure 3). Using the log
moneyness k = log(K/St ) of the option, one can also represent the implied
volatility surface as a function of k and time to maturity: It (τ, k) = Σt (t +
τ, St ek ). From the independence and stationarity of increments of X, it
follows that the definition of implied volatility (69) is equivalent to
I2τ
E[(eXτ − ek−rτ )+ ] = E[(eIWτ − 2 − ek−rτ )+ ].
58
60
50
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
20 1
1
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6 1.5
0.4
0.4
1 1.5
T T 0.2
0.2 ïrT
Ke /S
0
1 KeïrT/S
0
0.5 0.5
Since each side depends only on (τ, k) and not on t one concludes that in
exponential Lévy models, the implied volatility for a given log moneyness k
and time to maturity τ does not evolve in time: It (τ, k) = I0 (τ, k) := I(τ, k).
This property is known as the floating smile property.
In exponential Lévy models, the properties of the implied volatility sur-
faces can be characterized in terms of the asymptotic behavior of the surface
for large and small values of strike and maturity. We start with the large
and small strike behavior which was first analyzed by Roger Lee [45]; this
analysis was subsequently extended and made more precise by Benaim and
Friz [32, 31]. Their results, reviewed below, take a particularly simple form
in the case of Lévy processes, because the critical exponents do not depend
on time. Next, we study the short maturity asymptotics, where it turns out
that the behavior of the implied volatility is very different for out of the
money (OTM) and at the money (ATM) options. Below, we present some
original results for the two cases. Finally, the long-maturity asymptotics
were recently studied by Tehranchi [69, 68] and Rogers and Tehranchi [56].
We review their results in the case of Lévy processes, where once again, the
formulation is particularly simple and interesting links to the large deviations
theory and Cramér’s theorem can be made.
59
11.1 Large/small strikes
The limiting slope of time-rescaled implied variance as a function of log-strike
turns out to be related to the critical exponents of the moment generating
function of the log-price process X, defined by
qt∗ = − inf{u : E[euXt ] < ∞}, rt∗ = sup{u : E[euXt ] < ∞}.
It is clear that the interval [−qt∗ , rt∗ ] is nonempty, because E[euXt ] < ∞ at
least for all u ∈ [0, 1] by the martingale condition.
This was shown already in the original work of Roger Lee [45].
For Lévy processes, the exponents q ∗ and r∗ do not depend on t and
are particularly easy to compute, since the moment generating function is
known from the Lévy-Khintchine formula. In particular, the models with
exponential tail decay of the Lévy measure such as variance gamma, normal
inverse Gaussian and Kou satisfy the necessary conditions for the proposition
16 and their critical exponents coincide with the inverse decay lengths: q ∗ =
λ− and r∗ = λ+ . Figure 4 shows that the asymptotic linear slope of the
implied variance as a function of log strike can be observed for values of k
which are not so far from zero, especially for short maturity options.
In Merton model, the tails of the Lévy measure are thinner than expo-
nential and the critical exponents q ∗ and r∗ are infinite. The remark after
60
0.035
T=1 month
0.030 T=3 months
T=1 year
0.025
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.000
ï0.8 ï0.6 ï0.4 ï0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Proposition 16 then only tells us that the limiting slope of the implied vari-
ance is zero, but other results in [32] allow to compute the exact asymptotics:
for the right tail we have
k
I 2 (τ, k)τ ∼ δ × √ , when δ > 0
k→∞ 2 2 log k
and
k
I 2 (τ, k)τ ∼ µ × , when δ = 0,
k→∞ 2 log k
where δ is the standard deviation of the jump size and µ is the mean jump.
61
to zero for pure jump models. This leads to very pronounced smiles for short
maturity options (in agreement with market-quoted smiles). The intuitive
explanation of this effect is that in most continuous models, the stock returns
at short time scales become close to Gaussian; in particular, the skewness
and excess kurtosis converge to zero as τ → 0. By contrast, in models with
jumps, the distribution of stock returns at short time scales shifts further
away from the Gaussian law; the skewness and kurtosis explode as √1τ and τ1
respectively.
The short maturity asymptotics of implied volatility smile in exponential
Lévy models can be computed by comparing the option price asymptotics
in the Black-Scholes model to those in the exponential Lévy model (many
results in this direction can be found in Carr and Wu [17]). To simplify the
developments, we suppose that the interest rate is zero. Then the normalized
Black-Scholes price satisfies
−k 1 √
cBS (τ, k, σ) = N (d1 ) − ek N (d2 ), d1,2 = √ ± σ τ .
σ τ 2
Using the asymptotic expansion of the function N [1], we get, for the ATM
options (k = 0):
√
σ τ
cBS (τ, k, σ) ∼ √ (70)
2π
and for other options
ek/2 3 3/2 − k22
cBS (τ, k, σ) ∼ √ σ τ e 2σ τ , (71)
k 2 2π
where the notation f ∼ g signifies fg → 1 as τ → 0.
In every exponential Lévy model satisfying the martingale condition, we
have [58]
Z
E[(e − e ) ] ∼ τ (ex − ek )+ ν(dx), for k > 0
Xτ k +
(72)
Z
E[(e − e ) ] ∼ τ (ek − ex )+ ν(dx), for k < 0
k Xτ +
(73)
From these estimates, the following universal result can be deduced: it con-
firms the numerical observation of smile explosion in exponential Lévy models
and gives the exact rate at which this explosion takes place.
62
Proposition 17 (Short maturity asymptotics: OTM options). Let X be a
Lévy process with Lévy measure ν satisfying supp ν = R. Then, for a fixed
log moneyness k 6= 0, the implied volatility I(τ, k) in the exponential Lévy
model St = S0 eXt satisfies
where C1 > 0 does not depend on τ . Denote the (normalized) call price in
the exponential Lévy model by c(τ, k). Under the full support hypothesis,
c(τ, k) ∼ C2 τ with C2 > 0 which once again does not depend on τ . By
definition of the implied volatility we then have
C2 τ
lim k2
= 1.
τ →0 −
C1 I(τ, k)3 τ 3/2 e 2I 2 (τ,k)τ
1 k2
lim {log(C2 /C1 ) + 3 log I(τ, k) + log τ − 2 } = 0.
τ →0 2 2I (τ, k)τ
Now, knowing that I 2 (τ, k)τ → 0, we can multiply all terms by I 2 (τ, k)τ :
3 k2
lim {I 2 τ log(C2 /C1 ) + I 2 τ log(I 2 τ ) − I 2 τ log τ − } = 0.
τ →0 2 2
Since the first two terms disappear in the limit, this completes the proof in
the case k > 0. The case k < 0 can be treated in a similar manner using put
options.
For ATM options, the situation is completely different, from estimate (70)
we will deduce that the implied volatility does not explode but converges to
the volatility of the diffusion component.
63
Proposition 18 (Short maturity asymptotics: ATM options).
I(τ, 0)
lim √ R R = 1.
τ →0 2πτ max (ex − 1)+ ν(dx), (1 − ex )+ ν(dx)
I(τ, 0)
lim √ = 1.
τ →0 Cτ 1/α−1/2 2π
1/α 1/α
with C = Γ(1 − 1/α)(c+ + c− ).
64
0.55
K=1
0.50 K=1.1
0.45 K=0.9
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
E[(1 − eXτ )+ ]
Z τ Z τ Z
Xt Xt +x + Xt +
=E b e 1Xt ≤0 dt + ν(dx){(1 − e ) − (1 − e ) } dt.
0 0 R
By L’Hopital’s rule,
1
lim E[(1 − eXτ )+ ]
τ →0 τ
Z
Xτ Xτ +x + Xτ +
= b lim E[e 1Xτ ≤0 ]+lim E ν(dx){(1 − e ) − (1 − e ) } .
τ →0 τ →0 R
65
Since by the martingale condition,
Z
b + (ex − 1)ν(dx) = 0,
R
66
On the other hand, direct computation using Cauchy’s integral formula
(for γ 6= 0) or elementary calculus (for γ = 0) shows that
eiγuτ du
Z
= 2π(eγτ β − eγτ (β+1) )1γ<0 = O(τ )
(u − iβ)(u − i − iβ)
3. Under the conditions of this part, we can write the characteristic expo-
nent of X as ψ(u) = iγu − f (u)u2 for a continuous bounded function
2
f satisfying limu→∞ f (u) = σ2 . Then, exactly as in the previous part,
the dominated convergence theorem yields
σ 2 u2
1 − e−
Z
c̃(τ, 0) 1 2 σ
√ → du = √ ,
τ 2π R u2 2π
which is equal to the Black-Scholes ATM asymptotics.
67
√process with finite variance, the distribution of increments (Xτ −
for a Lévy
E[Xτ )])/ τ becomes approximately Gaussian as τ goes to infinity. However,
contrary to this intuition, the flattening of the smile is not a consequence of
the central limit theorem, but, rather, of a “large deviation” principle which
governs the tail behavior of the sample average of n i.i.d. random variables.
In fact, as observed by Rogers and Tehranchi [56], the implied volatility
flattens even in models where log-returns have infinite variance such as the
finite moment log-stable process of [16].
To understand this, consider a Lévy process X with E[X1 ] < ∞. Since in
a risk-neutral model E[eXt ] = 1, the Jensen inequality implies that E[Xt ] < 0
for all t. Therefore, by the law of large numbers, Xt → −∞ almost surely
as t → ∞, which means that eXt → 0 a.s. The exercise of a long-dated call
option is thus an event with a very small probability. The probability of
such rare events is given by Cramér’s theorem, which is the cornerstone of
the theory of large deviations, rather than by the CLT.
The normalized price of a call option with log-moneyness k can be written
as
c(τ, k) = E(eXτ − ek )+ = P̃[Xτ ≥ k] − ek P[Xτ ≥ k],
where we introduce the new probability P̃ via the Esscher transform:
dP|˜Ft
:= eXt .
dP|Ft
To make the probability of a rare event appear, we rewrite the option price
as
Xτ − α̃τ k k Xτ − ατ k
c(τ, k) = 1 − P̃ − > α̃ − −e P ≥ −α + .
τ τ τ τ
These probabilities can be estimated with the help of the famous Cramér’s
theorem which gives the exact convergence rate in the law of large numbers.
68
Theorem 4 (Cramér). Let {Xi }i≥1 be an i.i.d. sequence of random variables
with E[Xi ] = 0 for all i. Then for all x ≥ 0
" n #
1 1 X
lim log P Xi ≥ x = −I(x),
n→∞ n n i=1
and that the functions I˜ and I are finite and hence, continuous, in the neigh-
borhood of, respectively, α̃ and −α. Hence the sup above can be restricted
to the interval θ ∈ [0, 1], since the function being maximized is concave and
equal to 0 for θ = 0 and θ = 1. Using Cramér’s theorem and the continuity
of I˜ and I, we then obtain
2 Z
1 σ 2 θx x
lim log(1 − c(τ, k)) = sup (θ − θ ) − (e − θe − 1 + θ)ν(dx) .
τ →∞ τ θ∈[0,1] 2 R
(76)
Note that this formula is valid for any k, we can even take k to be a function
of τ as long as k = o(τ ) as τ → ∞. Specializing this formula to the Black-
Scholes model, where ν ≡ 0 and the sup can be computed explicitly, we
get
1 σ2
lim log(1 − cBS (τ, k, σ)) = .
τ →∞ τ 8
1
The finite moment log stable process of Carr and Wu [17] satisfies these hypotheses
although the variance of the log-price is infinite in this model.
69
From Equation (76), it follows in particular that the implied volatility sat-
isfies τ I 2 (τ, k) → ∞ as τ → ∞ (otherwise the call option price would not
converge to 1). Since in the Black-Scholes model the option price depends
only on τ σ 2 but not on τ or σ separately, we can write
1 1
lim log(1 − cBS (τ I 2 (τ, k), k, 1)) = ,
τ →∞ τ I 2 (τ, k) 8
The exact formula (77) for the limiting long-term implied volatility in
an exponential Lévy model is difficult to use in practice: even if for some
models such as variance gamma it yields a closed form expression, it is rather
cumbersome. However, for small jump sizes, Taylor expansion shows that this
expression is not very different from the total variance of the Lévy process:
Z
I (∞, k) ≈ σ + x2 ν(dx).
2 2
The smile flattening in exponential Lévy models has thus little to do with
the so called aggregational normality of stock returns. One may think that
the implied volatility converges to its limiting value faster for Lévy processes
to which the central limit theorem applies. However, the results of Rogers
and Tehranchi [56] suggest otherwise: they give the following upper bound,
valid in exponential Lévy models as soon as E[|Xt | < ∞], for the rate of
convergence of the implied volatility skew to zero:
I(τ, k2 )2 − I(τ, k1 )2
lim sup sup τ ≤ 4, 0 < M < ∞.
τ →∞ k1 ,k2 ∈[−M,M ] k2 − k1
∂I(τ,k)
See also [68] for explicit asymptotics of the the derivative ∂k
as τ → ∞.
70
12 Hedging in exponential Lévy models
Exponential Lévy models generally correspond to incomplete markets, mak-
ing exact replication impossible. Hedging must therefore be interpreted as
approximation of the terminal pay-off with an admissible portfolio. The
usual practice is to minimize the expected squared deviation of the hedg-
ing portfolio from the contingent claim, an approach known as quadratic
hedging. The resulting strategies are often explicitly computable and, more
importantly, they are linear, because the hedging portfolios can be inter-
preted as orthogonal projections of contingent claims onto the closed linear
subspace of hedgeable portfolios. To hedge a book of options written on the
same underlying, a trader can therefore compute the hedge ratio for every
option in the book and then add them up, just like this is typically done
with delta hedging. This greatly reduces the computational cost of hedging
and is an important advantage of quadratic hedging compared to other, e.g.,
utility-based approaches.
To define the criterion to be minimized in a mean square sense, two ap-
proaches are possible. In the first approach [12, 52, 39], the hedging strategy
is supposed to be self-financing, and one minimizes the quadratic hedging er-
ror at maturity, that is, the expected squared difference between the terminal
value of the hedging portfolio and the option’s pay-off:
Z T Z T
2 0 0
inf E[ |VT (φ) − H| ] where VT (φ) = V0 + φt dSt + φt dSt , (78)
V0 ,φ 0 0
where S 0 is the risk-free asset. If the interest rate is constant, we can choose
the zero-coupon bond with maturity T as the risk-free asset: St0 = e−r(T −t)
and after discounting this problem becomes:
Z T
2
inf E[|VT (φ) − H| ], where VT = V0 + ˆ φt dŜt .
V̂0 ,φ 0
In the second approach [30, 29, 61, 64], strategies that are not self-
financing are allowed, but they are required to replicate the option’s pay-off
exactly: VT (φ) = H. In an incomplete market, this means that the option’s
seller will have to continuously inject / withdraw money from the hedging
portfolio. The cumulative amount of funds injected or withdrawn is called
the cost process. It is given by
Ct (φ) = Vt (φ) − Gt (φ),
71
where
Vt (φ) = φ0t St0 + φt St
and G is the gain process given by
Z t Z t
0 0
Gt = φs dSs + φs dSs .
0 0
then the set A of attainable pay-offs is a closed linear subspace of L2 (Ω, F, Q),
and the quadratic hedging problem becomes an orthogonal projection:
inf E|VT (φ) − H|2 = inf kH − Ak2L2 (Q) . (81)
V̂0 ,φ A∈A
72
The solution is then given by the well-known Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe
decomposition [43, 33], which states that any random variable H ∈ L2 (Ω, F, Q)
can be represented as
Z T
H = E[H] + φH H
t dŜt + NT , (82)
0
which means that the optimal hedge ratio may be expressed more explicitly
using the predictable covariation of the option price and the stock price:
dhĤ, Ŝit
φH
t = . (83)
dhŜ, Ŝit
In the martingale setting, optimizing the global hedging error (78) we
obtain a strategy which is also risk minimizing in the sense of equation (79).
For any strategy φ, we have
" Z T 2 #
E[(ĈT − Ĉt )2 |Ft ] = (Ĥt − V̂t )2 + E H − Ĥt − φs dŜs Ft
t
"Z
T 2 #
= (Ĥt − V̂t )2 + E[(NT − Nt )2 |Ft ] + E (φs − φHs )dŜs Ft .
t
73
We shall see in section 12.2 that in the martingale setting, the strategy
H
φ which minimizes the terminal hedging error also coincides with the locally
risk minimizing strategy of Föllmer and Schweizer [29]. Moreover, it is often
easy to compute in terms of option prices. This is no longer true if Ŝ is not
a martingale. However using the risk-neutral second moment of the hedging
error as a criterion for measuring risk is not very natural: Q represents a
pricing rule and not a statistical description of market events, so the profit
and loss (P&L) of a portfolio may have a large variance while its “risk neu-
tral” variance can be small. Nevertheless, to estimate the expected return
of a stock, and therefore, to distinguish it from a martingale, one needs his-
torical stock return observations covering an extended period of time, often
exceeding the lifetime of the option. Option hedging, on the other hand, is a
“local” business, where one tries to cancel out the daily movements of option
prices with the daily movements of the underlying and locally, every stock
behaves like a martingale. Without contributing to this ongoing argument,
we review both approaches in the next two sections.
74
ii. The integrability condition (39) holds for all t < T .
iii. The Lévy measure of X satisfies
Z
e2(x∨Rx) ν(dx) < ∞. (84)
|x|>1
Then the optimal quadratic hedging for a European option with pay-off G(ST )
at date T in an exponential Lévy model St = S0 ert+Xt amounts to holding a
position in the underlying
Z
1 R−iu−1
φt = ĝ(u + iR)ΦT −t (−u − iR)Ŝt− Υ(R − iu)du (85)
2π R
κ(y + 1) − κ(y) − κ(1)
where Υ(y) = , and κ(z) := log E[ezX1 ], (86)
κ(2) − 2κ(1)
or, equivalently, φt = φ(t, St− ) where:
σ 2 ∂P (t, S) + S1 ν(dz)(ez − 1)[P (t, Sez ) − P (t, S)]
R
∂S
φ(t, S) = R (87)
σ 2 + (ez − 1)2 ν(dz)
with P (t, S) = e−r(T −t) E Q [G(ST )|St = S] the option price at date t when the
underlying is at the level S.
Remark 1. Condition (84), which is the only assumption imposed in addition
to those of Proposition 10, guarantees that both the price process St and the
option pay-off G(ST ) are square integrable.
Proof. By Itô formula, the discounted stock price dynamics is given by
Z T Z TZ
ŜT = Ŝ0 + Ŝt σdWt + Ŝt (ex − 1)J˜X (dt × dx). (88)
0 0 R
To prove the proposition using the formula (83), we now need to obtain
a similar integral representation for the option’s discounted price function
P̂ (t, St ) = er(T −t) P (t, St ).
Let t < T . Applying the Itô formula under the integral sign in (40), we
find
Z Z t
1
P̂ (t, St ) − P̂ (0, S0 ) = duĝ(u + iR) ΦT −s (−u − iR)(R − iu)ŜsR−iu σdWs
2π R 0
Z Z t Z
1
+ duĝ(u + iR) R−iu
ΦT −s (−u − iR)Ŝs− (e(R−iu)z − 1)J˜X (ds × dz).
2π R 0 R
(89)
75
Let us first assume that σ > 0 and study the first term in the right-hand side
of (89), which can be written as
Z Z t
µ(du) Hsu dWs
R 0
where
By the Fubini theorem for stochastic integrals (see [53, page 208]), we can
interchange the two integrals in (90) provided that
Z t
E µ(du)|Hsu |2 ds < ∞ (91)
0
ΦT −s (−u − iR)
≤C
|ΦT −t (−u − iR)|
for all s ≤ t ≤ T for some constant C > 0 which does not depend on s and
t. To prove (91) it is then sufficient to check
Z tZ
E |ĝ(u + iR)ΦT −t (−u − iR)||Ŝs2(R−iu) |2 (R − iu)2 dudt < ∞
0 R
76
Let us now turn to the second term in the right-hand side of (89). Here
we need to apply the Fubini theorem for stochastic integrals with respect to
a compensated Poisson random measure [4, Theorem 5] and the applicability
condition boils down to
Z tZ Z
2(R−iu) 2
E |ĝ(u + iR)ΦT −t (−u − iR)||Ŝs | |e(R−iu)z − 1|2 ν(dz)dudt < ∞
0 R R
77
This allows us to examine whether there are any cases where the hedging
error can be reduced to zero, i.e., where one can achieve a perfect hedge for
every option and the market is complete. Hedging error is zero if and only
if, for almost all t, there exists k ∈ R with:
∂P
(σSt , (P (t, St ez ) − P (t, St ))z∈supp ν ) = k(σSt , (St (ez − 1))z∈supp ν )
∂S
This is only true in two (trivial) cases:
• The Lévy process X is a Brownian motion with drift: ν = 0 and we
retrieve the Black-Scholes delta hedge
∂P
φt = ∆BS (t, St ) = (t, St ).
∂S
• The Lévy process X is a Poisson process with drift: σ = 0 and there is
a single possible jump size: ν = δx0 (x). In this case the hedging error
equals
Z T 2
x0 x0
E dt P̂ (t, St− e ) − P̂ (t, St− ) − Ŝt− φt (e − 1)
0
so by choosing
P (t, St− ex0 ) − P (t, St− )
φt =
St− (ex0 − 1)
we obtain a replication strategy.
In other cases, the market is incomplete (an explicit counter-example may
be constructed using power option with pay-off HT = (ST )α ).
78
1.0 1.0
Delta Delta
0.9 0.9
Optimal Optimal
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0.0 0.0
0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20
Figure 6: Hedge ratios for the optimal strategy of proposition 20 and the
delta hedging strategy as function of stock price S. Left: hedging with stock
in Kou model: the optimal strategy introduces a small asymmetry correction
to delta hedging. Right: variance gamma model close to maturity (2 days):
the optimal strategy is very far from delta hedging.
where Z
2 2
Σ =σ + (ez − 1)2 ν(dz).
Typically in equity markets the jumps are negative and small, therefore
∆(t, S) < ∂P
∂S
and the optimal strategy represents a small (of the order of
third power of jump size) asymmetry correction. This situation is repre-
sented in Figure 6, left graph. On the other hand, for pure-jump processes
such as variance gamma, we cannot perform the Taylor expansion, because
2
the second derivative ∂∂SP2 may not even exist, and the correction may there-
fore be quite large (see Figure 6, right graph).
79
Strategy Root of mean squared error
Delta hedging 0.0133
Optimal quadratic 0.0133
Delta hedging in Black-Scholes model 0.0059
(error due to discrete hedging)
No hedging 0.107
Table 1: Hedging errors for different strategies in Kou model expressed
in percentage of the initial stock price. Model parameters were estimated
from MSFT time series. The “Black-Scholes” strategy corresponds to delta-
hedging in the Black-Scholes model with equivalent volatility.
strategy is very close to delta hedging, and consequently, the hedging error
is the same for delta hedging as for the optimal strategy. On the other hand,
this error is very low, it is only twice as big as what we would get in the
Black and Scholes model with equivalent volatility (this error in the Black-
Scholes model is due to the fact that in the simulations, the portfolio is only
rebalanced once a day and not continuously).
In the second case study, Kou model with unfrequent large negative jumps
(10%) was used, and we wanted once again to hedge an OTM European put
(K = 90%, T = 1). The hedging errors are given in Table 12.1 and the
P&L histograms in Figure 7, right graph. Here we see that first, the optimal
strategy has a much better performance than delta-hedging, and second,
even this performance may not be sufficient, since the residual error is still
of order of 4% of the initial stock price. This means that in this context,
the market is “strongly incomplete” and hedging with stock only does not
allow to make the risk at terminal date sufficiently small. In this case, to
improve the hedging performance, one can include additional liquid assets,
such as options on the same underlying, or variance swaps, into the hedging
portfolio.
80
Strategy Root of mean squared error
Delta-hedging 0.051
Optimal quadratic 0.041
No hedging 0.156
Table 2: Hedging errors for different strategies in Kou model expressed in
percentage of the initial stock price. A parameter set ensuring the presence
of large negative jumps was taken.
100 25
Deltaïhedging Deltaïhedging
90
Optimal hedging Optimal hedging
80 BlackïScholes 20
70
60 15
50
40 10
30
20 5
10
0 0
ï0.05 ï0.04 ï0.03 ï0.02 ï0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 ï0.20 ï0.15 ï0.10 ï0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10
81
and suppose that it can be written in the form
Z t
St = S0 + Mt + αs dhM is (97)
0
γ 2t
Kt = R .
σ 2 + R (ez − 1)2 ν(dz)
Local risk minimization The locally risk minimizing strategy [29, 62]
is a (not necessarily self-financing) trading strategy whose discounted cost
process Ĉ is a martingale orthogonal to M . This strategy is optimal in the
sense that we eliminate all the risk associated to the underlying with hedging,
and the only part of risk that remains in the cost process is the risk which
is orthogonal to the fluctuations of the underlying, and hence, cannot be
hedged with it. If the market is complete, then all risk is explained by the
underlying and the cost process of a locally minimizing strategy becomes
82
constant, that is, the strategy becomes self-financing. As already mentioned,
the locally risk minimizing strategy also has the interpretation of minimizing
the residual risk (79) with respect to suitably defined small perturbations
of the strategy [62]. Since the cost process is nonconstant, the locally risk
minimizing strategy is not a self-financing strategy in general however since
C is a martingale with mean zero this strategy is self-financing on average.
The locally risk minimizing strategy is closely related to an extension
of the Kunita-Watanabe decomposition to semimartingale setting, known as
the Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition [29, 61, 64, 65].
Definition 13. Let H ∈ L2 (P) be a contingent claim. A sum H = H0 +
RT H
0
φu dSu + LH
T is called the Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition of H if H0
is F0 -measurable, φH is an admissible trading strategy and LH is a square
integrable martingale with LH0 = 0, orthogonal to M .
Since LH
0 = 0, the initial capital for the Föllmer-Schweizer strategy is H0 =
M M
E Q [H]. Let HtM := E Q [H|Ft ]. The orthogonality condition under P then
yields an analogue of formula (83):
dhH M , SiPt
φH
t = .
dhS, SiPt
83
In models with jumps, the minimal martingale measure does not always
exist as a probability measure (but may turn out to be a signed measure).
In an exponential-Lévy model of the form (98), the density of the minimal
martingale measure simplifies to Z = E(U ) with
Z tZ
γ z ˜
Ut = − 2 R z σWt + (e − 1)J(ds × dz) .
σ + R (e − 1)2 ν(dz) 0 R
γ(ex − 1)
R < 1 ∀x ∈ supp ν,
σ 2 + R (ez − 1)2 ν(dz)
84
• Case of arbitrary payoffs. Let the option payoff be H = f (ST ) with f
of the form Z
f (s) = sz Π(dz)
H = 5NT1 .
Define
Lt = Nt1 − 2Nt2 + t
Then L is a P-martingale and
85
The initial cost of this strategy is thus equal to H0 = (5 − 2γ)T , which can
be both positive and negative (if γ > 25 ), and therefore cannot be interpreted
as the price of the claim H. An intuitive explanation is that when the stock
returns are very high, one can obtain a terminal pay-off which is (on average)
positive even with a negative initial capital.
The minimal martingale measure in this setting is defined by
86
strategies are given in [18]. Schweizer [63] studies the case where the mean-
variance tradeoff process K is deterministic and shows that in this case, the
variance-optimal hedging strategy is also linked to the Föllmer-Schweizer
decomposition. Hubalek et al. [39] exploit these results to derive explicit
formulas for the hedging strategy in the case of Lévy processes. The following
proposition uses the notation of Proposition 21.
Proposition 22 (Mean variance hedging in exponential Lévy models [39]).
Let the contingent claim H be as in the second part of Proposition 21. Then
the variance optimal initial capital and the variance optimal hedging strategy
are given by
V0 = H0
λ
φt = φH
t + (Ht− − V0 − Gt− (φ)), (99)
St−
κ(1)
where λ = κ(2)−2κ(1)
and
Z
Ht = Stz eη(z)(T −t) Π(dz).
In the case of exponential Lévy models, and in all models with determin-
istic mean-variance tradeoff, the variance optimal initial wealth is therefore
equal to the initial value of the locally risk minimizing strategy. This allows to
interpret the above result as a “stochastic target” approach to hedging, where
the locally risk minimizing portfolio Ht plays the role of a “stochastic tar-
get” which we would like to follow because it allows to approach the option’s
pay-off with the least fluctuations. Since the locally risk-minimizing strategy
is not self-financing, if we try to follow it with a self-financing strategy, our
portfolio may deviate from the locally risk minimizing portfolio upwards or
downwards. The strategy (99) measures this deviation at each date and tries
to compensate it by investing more or less in the stock, depending on the
sign of the expected return (λ is the expected excess return divided by the
square of the volatility).
87
0.32
Mean jump = ï10%
Mean jump = 10%
Mean jump=0
0.5
0.3
0.45
0.4
0.28
0.35
0.3
0.25 0.26
0.2
0.15
0.24
0.1
0
0.5
1 0.22
1.5 600
800
2 1000
2.5 1200
1400 0.2
3 1600 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
after observing a trajectory of the stock price, the pricing model is com-
pletely defined. On the other hand, since the pricing model is defined by a
single volatility parameter, this parameter can be reconstructed from a single
option price (by inverting the Black-Scholes formula). This value is known
as the implied volatility of this option.
If the real markets obeyed the Black-Scholes model, the implied volatility
of all options written on the same underlying would be the same and equal
to the standard deviation of returns of this underlying. However, empirical
studies show that this is not the case: implied volatilities of options on the
same underlying depend on their strikes and maturities (figure 8, left graph).
Jump-diffusion models provide an explanation of the implied volatility
smile phenomenon since in these models the implied volatility is both dif-
ferent from the historical volatility and changes as a function of strike and
maturity. Figure 8, right graph shows possible implied volatility patterns (as
a function of strike) in the Merton jump-diffusion model.
The results of calibration of the Merton model to S&P index options
are presented in figure 9. The calibration was carried out separately for
each maturity using the routine [8] from Premia software. In this program,
the vector of unknown parameters θ is found by minimizing numerically the
88
0.9 0.30
Market 0.28 Market
0.8
Model 0.26 Model
0.7
0.24
0.6 0.22
0.5 0.20
0.4 0.18
0.16
0.3
0.14
0.2 0.12
0.1 0.10
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
0.7 0.30
Market Market
0.6 Model Model
0.25
0.5
0.4 0.20
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.1 0.10
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
where P obs denotes the prices observed in the market and P θ (Ti , Ki ) is the
Merton model price computed for parameter vector θ, maturity Ti and strike
1
Ki . Here, the weights wi := (P obs )2
were chosen to ensure that all terms in
i
the minimization functional are of the same order of magnitude. The model
prices were computed simultaneously for all strikes present in the data using
the FFT-based algorithm described in section 8. The functional in (100) was
then minimized using a quasi-newton method (LBFGS-B described in [13]).
In the case of Merton model, the calibration functional is sufficiently well
behaved, and can be minimized using this convex optimization algorithm.
In more complex jump-diffusion models, in particular, when no parametric
shape of the Lévy measure is assumed, a penalty term must be added to
the distance functional in (100) to ensure convergence and stability. This
procedure is described in detail in [21, 22, 67].
The calibration for each individual maturity is quite good, however, al-
though the options of different maturities correspond to the same trading
day and the same underlying, the parameter values for each maturity are
different, as seen from table 3. In particular, the behavior for short (1 to
5 months) and long (1 to 3 years) maturities is qualitatively different, and
89
0.7 0.30
Market 0.28 Market
0.6 Model Model
0.26
0.24
0.5
0.22
0.4 0.20
0.18
0.3
0.16
0.14
0.2
0.12
0.1 0.10
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
0.7 0.30
Market Market
0.6 Model Model
0.25
0.5
0.4 0.20
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.1 0.10
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
for longer maturities the mean jump size tends to increase while the jump
intensity decreases with the length of the holding period.
Figure 10 shows the result of simultaneous calibration of Merton model to
options of 4 different maturities, ranging from 1 month to 3 years. As we see,
the calibration error is much bigger than in figure 9. This happens because
for processes with independent and stationary increments (and the log-price
in Merton model is an example of such process), the law of the entire process
is completely determined by its law at any given time t (this follows from the
Lévy-Khintchine formula — equation 10). If we have calibrated the model
parameters for a single maturity T , this fixes completely the risk-neutral
stock price distribution for all other maturities. A special kind of maturity
dependence is therefore hard-wired into every Lévy jump diffusion model,
and table 3 shows that it does not always correspond to the term structures
of market option prices.
To calibrate a jump-diffusion model to options of several maturities at the
same time, the model must have a sufficient number of degrees of freedom to
reproduce different term structures. This is possible for example in the Bates
model (101), where the smile for short maturities is explained by the presence
of jumps whereas the smile for longer maturities and the term structure of
implied volatility is taken into account using the stochastic volatility process.
Figure 11 shows the calibration of the Bates model to the same data set as
90
Maturity σ λ jump mean jump std. dev.
1 month 9.5% 0.097 −1.00 0.71
2 months 9.3% 0.086 −0.99 0.63
5 months 10.8% 0.050 −0.59 0.41
11 months 7.1% 0.70 −0.13 0.11
17 months 8.2% 0.29 −0.25 0.12
23 months 8.2% 0.26 −0.27 0.15
35 months 8.8% 0.16 −0.38 0.19
Table 3: Calibrated Merton model parameters for different times to maturity.
above. As we see, the calibration quality has improved and is now almost as
good as when each maturity was calibrated separately. The calibration was
once again carried out using the tool [8] from Premia.
91
0.8 0.40
Market Market
0.7 0.35
Model Model
0.6
0.30
0.5
0.25
0.4
0.20
0.3
0.2 0.15
0.1 0.10
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
0.7 0.35
Market Market
0.6 Model Model
0.30
0.5
0.25
0.4
0.20
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.1 0.10
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
92
0.28
Implied volatility
0.26
0.24
0.22
0.2
0.18
0.16
0 5000
5500
0.5 6000
Maturity Strike
6500
1 7000
0.3
0.28 0.28
Implied volatility
Implied volatility
0.26 0.26
0.24 0.24
0.22 0.22
0.2 0.2
0.18
0.18
0.16
0.16 0 5000
0 5000 5500
5500 0.5 6000
0.5 6000
6500
Maturity 6500 Strike 1 7000
1 7000 Maturity Strike
Figure 12: Top: Market implied volatility surface. Bottom left: implied
volatility surface in an exponential Lévy model, calibrated to market prices of
the first maturity. Bottom right: implied volatility surface in an exponential
Lévy model, calibrated to market prices of the last maturity.
93
30ïday ATM options
450ïday ATM options
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
years, satisfies:
σ2
e−rτ E Q [(St erτ +Xτ − mSt )+ |Ft ] = e−rτ E[(St erτ +σWτ − 2
τ
− mSt )+ |Ft ]
Due to the independent increments property, St cancels out and we obtain an
equation for the implied volatility σ which does not contain t or St . Therefore,
in an exp-Lévy model this implied volatility does not depend on date t or
stock price St . This means that once the smile has been calibrated for a given
date t, its shape is fixed for all future dates. Whether or not this is true in real
markets can be tested in a model-free way by looking at the implied volatility
of at the money options with the same maturity for different dates. Figure 13
depicts the behavior of implied volatility of two at the money options on the
CAC40 index, expiring in 30 and 450 days. Since the maturities of available
options are different for different dates, to obtain the implied volatility of an
option with fixed maturity T for each date, we have taken two maturities,
present in the data, closest to T from above and below: T1 ≤ T and T2 > T .
The implied volatility Σ(T ) of the hypothetical option with maturity T was
then interpolated using the following formula:
T2 − T T − T1
Σ2 (T ) = Σ2 (T1 ) + Σ2 (T2 ) .
T1 − T T2 − T1
As we have seen, in an exponential Lévy model the implied volatility of an
option which is at the money and has fixed maturity must not depend on
94
time or stock price. Figure 13 shows that in reality this is not so: both graphs
are rapidly varying random functions.
This simple test shows that real markets do not have the “sticky money-
ness” property: arrival of new information can alter the form of the smile.
The exponential Lévy models are therefore “not random enough” to account
for the time evolution of the smile. Moreover, models based on additive
processes, that is, time-inhomogeneous processes with independent incre-
ments, although they perform well in calibrating the term structure of im-
plied volatilities for a given date [20], are not likely to describe the time
evolution of the smile correctly since in these models the future form of the
smile is still a deterministic function of its present shape [20]. To describe
the time evolution of the smile in a consistent manner, one may need to
introduce additional stochastic factors (e.g. stochastic volatility).
Several models combining jumps and stochastic volatility appeared in the
literature. In the Bates [5] model, one of the most popular examples of the
class, an independent jump component is added to the Heston stochastic
volatility model:
p
dXt = µdt + Vt dWtX + dZt , St = S0 eXt , (101)
p
dVt = ξ(η − Vt )dt + θ Vt dWtV , dhW V , W X it = ρdt,
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