ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS – Vol.

I - Environmental Systems - Achim Sydow

ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

Achim Sydow
National Research Center for Information Technology (GMD.FIRST), Berlin, Germany

Keywords: System, systems identification, parameter estimation, data base, validation,

sensitivity analysis, systems analysis, information system, multicriteria optimization,
hierarchical optimization, logistic growth, exponential growth, population dynamics,
linear systems, nonlinear systems, distributed parameter systems, concentrated
parameter systems/lumped parameter systems, maximum likelihood estimation, risk
analysis, air pollution, monitoring, traffic system, water quality, uncertainty, fuzzy set,
life support, sustainable development, diffusion, dispersion, determinism, stochastic
systems, self-organizing systems, cybernetics, ozone, water quality, sensor network,
telematics, satellites, information technology, data filtering, aggregation models,
decision making, environmental protection, continuous systems, discrete systems,

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control, conceptional model, knowledge-based systems, expert systems, Bayesian

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probability theory, normal distribution, statistical classification, neuronal nets, system
ecology, dissipative structure, state variable, self-organisation, entropy,
thermodynamics, holistic consideration, input/output analysis, ecosystems, prey-
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predator systems, biosphere, technosphere, simulation, traffic, geographical models,
landscape models, integrated models, dispersion models, global change, transport
processes, micro-scale, macro-scale, global scale, Eulerian models, Lagrangian models,
experimental systems analysis, theoretical systems analysis, data base, large systems,
linear programming, dynamic programming, Bellmann´s optimization principle, Pareto-
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optimal solutions, efficient solution, Lagrange function, Lagrange equations,

compromise, distributed computation, parallel computation, rank order optimization,
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decomposition, forest management, agrarian management, hierarchical systems,

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geographical information systems (GISs).

Contents
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1. Introduction: Systems Approach to Environmental Objects

1.1 Environmental System Conception
1.2 Complexity of Environmental Systems
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1.3 Systems Analysis

2. Measurements: Data Capture, Validation, Interpretation
3. Modeling: Model Types, System Identification and Parameter Estimation
3.1 Types of System Models
4. Decision Support: Optimization, Multicriteria Approach, Hierarchical Optimization
4.1. Classical Approach
4.2. Multicriteria Conceptions
4.3. Hierarchical Optimization
5. Applied Systems Analysis: Urban and Regional Studies and Information Systems
5.1 DYMOS-Dynamic Models for Smog Analysis
Acknowledgement
Glossary
Bibliography
Biographical Sketch

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ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS – Vol. I - Environmental Systems - Achim Sydow

Summary

“Erkenne, was die Welt im Innersten zusammenhält. Wie alles sich zum Ganzen
webt, eins in dem anderen wirkt und lebt.” (Faust, Goethe)

To enable the use of data sets for management and protected classical and non-classical
methods of data filtering and aggregation, modeling and decision making, as well as
monitoring are required. This asks for environmental agencies and related companies to
collect large, raw data sets. But there is the bottleneck of evaluating the data and
applying them for environmental management and protection. Therefore, statistical
methods of data handling have been developed. More and more challenging tasks of
environmental management and protection have forced the conceptualization and
development of models of environmental objects based on systems engineering
approaches with the natural and social sciences background. Advanced information
technologies like simulation, networking and monitoring help to understand the

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behavior of complex environmental systems and their parts and to forecast the influence

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of human activities on the environment. Analyzing the human environment has been a
fundamental problem. The task and fascination of forecast (to know something before)
and not understanding (to explore something after) is caused by basic contradictions. On
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the one hand, man is part of the whole of nature. Necessity and change, as well as order
and chaos determine his destiny. On the other hand, man is an active part of nature and
driven by the will to investigate nature with objectives of using nature. Science in its
long history has contemplated in turn these aspects. But now, with the idea of life
support and sustainable development, it is time to realize both aspects as a whole.
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1. Introduction: Systems Approach to Environmental Objects

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First we should reflect on the new understanding of the role of determinism and
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probability, the whole and its parts and order and chaos in (environmental) sciences and
in modeling.
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The stochastic nature of the microcosmos is well-known (since L. Boltzmann). A

further and relatively new finding is the fact that the macrocosmos also outside the
molecular level is not only determined by the concept of determinism. The American
meteorologist E.N. Lorenz gave an example besides M. Born, W. Heisenberg, P.D.
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Thompson and A.M. Obudow before.

Atmospheric and fluid fluxes or population dynamics all show chaotic behavior. In
opposition to stochastic behavior they display deterministic behavior.

Second the great progress in the development of information technology and the social
need to apply these techniques must be mentioned.

Environmental management and protection have become a general task on all levels of
society. This fact results from global industrialization. After the end of the cold war the
military budgets were cut. The military was eliminated by environmental research.
Advanced environmental technologies, especially information technologies were
developed. Sensor technologies have to be mentioned. Computer technology has made

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ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS – Vol. I - Environmental Systems - Achim Sydow

great progress. The price/performance ratio of processors, prices of disk spaces and
main memories are decreasing rapidly.

Sensor networks have been installed to monitor the quality of water, air and the ground
in most countries. Satellites are increasingly used to capture environmental data. This
environmental information technology enables the claimed large and complex data sets
to be administered as global systems.

1.1. Environmental System Conception

The conception of systems is very general. In system science it is used to analyze

complexity, to bring a greater amount of transparency into the interaction of parts. It
maps the flow of information or energy or material etc. through the complex system. It
is based on the decomposition of the complex system into subsystems. The chosen
subsystems should be simple to handle. Mostly, they are object-orientated. The topology

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of the real object determines the structure of the mapped system. Systems are

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characterized by inputs and outputs. They can be controlled via the inputs and observed
via the outputs.
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The difficulty of analyzing and especially forecasting the environment consists in the
fact that man as an actor is himself part of the complex environmental system/complex
ecosystem – the biosphere (Figure 1).
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Figure 1. Human environment

The concept of systems builds a bridge between the world of real objects and
mathematics. Typical terms of systems methodology are linear and nonlinear systems,
continuous and discrete systems, lumped parameter and distributed parameters,

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automata, events, hierarchical systems etc. Terms of modeling are systems

identification, and parameter estimation, input and output analysis, sensitivity analysis,
uncertainty, fuzzy sets, control, decision making, etc.

Systems analysis requires to design a conceptual model consisting of submodels. The

conceptual model is a plan for mathematical modeling. Mathematical modeling is based
on measurement before or during the control process. Modeling is not a purpose for
itself. Its focus is to solve problems and according to the problems, selected models are
developed. Some models are developed only for one problem. Generally, the systems
approach provides models for control, decision and planning processes.

Vice versa one physical object would be modeled by different descriptions. So the term
environmental system is more or less a synonym for models describing a set of models.
Naturally, the selection/choice of a model starts with the topology of the environmental
object and generally with the analysis of the planning/decision/control problem.

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1.2. Complexity of Environmental Systems

The complexity of environmental systems is known to all who need to make decisions
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in the management of plants, in environmental politics or in the study of global change,
etc. (Figure 2). The complexity is inherent in the nonlinearity of mathematical models,
the dynamic and stochastic nature of natural resource problems, the multipurpose,
multiobjective attributes of decision problems. The complexity is also caused by the
natural coupling and interaction of parts of the biosphere. The complexity depends also
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on problems of measuring, transmitting, processing and analyzing data and the decision-
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making process under environmental, technical, institutional, economic and political

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aspects.
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Figure 2. Modeling and decision making

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ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS – Vol. I - Environmental Systems - Achim Sydow

Systems methodology provides theoretical and computational tools for modeling,

analyzing, understanding and controlling, optimizing or planning complex,
environmental systems.

The systems approach brings transparency into the interactions of the system’s parts.
Simulation tools support numerical insights into the system behavior. The idea of
sustainable development is the overall goal in treating the biosphere and its parts, which
takes into consideration their high complexity.

1.3. Systems Analysis

Systems analysis consists of various steps. Basically, these are described in the
following outline:

1. Analyzing the decision problem (goals, decision or control variables).

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2. Formulating a model which is adequate in quality and accuracy for the complex

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problem (structure, parameter, interconnections).
3. Testing the model (usually by computer simulation) (validity, sensitivity).
4. Solving the decision problems by scenario analysis, optimization (control, decision
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strategies, planning)

Computer simulation and optimization tools provide essential aids as regards most of
the steps.
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Typical examples of environmental problems should explain the use of the systems
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approach in different model areas (regional, global). Environmental systems are very
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often used in economical and social context.

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Global natural resource management problems, for example, are only to be considered
together with population growth and world economy. It is similar for other problems.
That means that ecological systems should be compatible with other necessary systems.
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Hierarchical systems methodology was developed with systems theory and basic
knowledge of cybernetics (information, control and loop function, signal processing)
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and related engineering applications. Systems engineering provides a tool box with
approved methods in engineering sciences.

On the level of systems or “symbolic systems” mainly control, decision and planning
problems will be analyzed. Modeling on the systems level is based on the input-output
analyzes and needs mathematics, natural life and economic sciences as a background.
System identification and parameter estimation are the main steps of modeling.

Example: water quality. As an example of the systems approach a control problem of

water resources is considered (Figure 3):

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ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS – Vol. I - Environmental Systems - Achim Sydow

Figure 3. The water quality of a river

• What variable should be measured and controlled?

• How to control and by which variables?

According to the wastewater inflow the river is decomposed into subsystems (Figure 4).

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Figure 4. Systems approach description

The pollution is directly discharged into the river or over a wastewater plant. The
control problem for water quality consists in the fulfillment of certain conditions
(biological oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen) and optimization of the overall costs,
including the costs for the wastewater treatment. This is a distributed parameter system
based on a partial differential equation. The control problem would be considered a
multicriteria optimization problem and solved by hierarchical optimization.

2. Measurements: Data Capture, Validation, Interpretation

Environmental object classification leads to the taxonomy distinguishing between
atmosphere (all objects above the surface of the Earth), hydrosphere (water-related

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ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS – Vol. I - Environmental Systems - Achim Sydow

objects), lithosphere (relating to soil and rocks), biosphere (all living matters) and
technosphere (human-made objects), cf. Figure 5.

Figure 5 shows a comprehensive classification for databases. Because the environment

is a complex object some parts could be allocated to different classes. Analyzing
environmental objects and problems is an interdisciplinary task. An important question
is how to assign data to classes of a given taxonomy.

As an example think of satellite observation and land use classification. How to allocate
pixels to land use classes?

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Figure 5. Taxonomy of environmental objects

A basic method to solve this problem is called maximum likelihood. For this method,
one needs to know a finite number of classes for the allocation of new observations. The
probability distribution for each class describes the probability that the observation
belongs to the respective class. Mostly, the probability distribution is unknown.
Practically, very often a normal distribution is used. Suitable data sets (trainings sets)
are used to identify the parameters of probability distribution.

Environmental system models based on measurements need aggregation, validation and

interpretation of the initial collection of environmental data. The measurement is
associated according to the applied methods and techniques with uncertainties.
Therefore, validation procedures are developed and applied (like temporal v.,

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geographic v., space-time v., interparameter v., see Günther). Measurements in most
cases are validated in the context of interpretation. Also, knowledge-based systems
(expert systems) play a role for initial evaluation of environmental raw data.

For data processing, statistical classification, data management and artificial intelligence
provide standard methods. Within the process of data processing, especially in the case
of data fusion (by combining), methods of uncertainty management are applied.

When circumstances of measurements are known like weather, date, time of day, etc.,
methods based on Bayesian probability theory are used. The Bayesian model requires
events which are independent of each other. This is mostly unrealistic.

Therefore, recently developed methods like fuzzy sets have to be applied. Neural nets
are used to handle uncertainty.

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Such validated data are the basis for information systems and monitoring of the state of

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environment. Furthermore, they are needed for modeling (systems identification and
parameter estimation). After systems analysis the conceptual model (model design)
requires input and output data of the systems or subsystems. The theory determines
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which and how much data are needed (“It is the theory which decides what can be
observed”, A. Einstein). Physics, chemistry, biology, ecology, especially engineering
sciences, etc., provide measurement equipment and techniques. In general, measurement
and validation are the bottleneck and a great challenge for the further development and
realization of the environment.
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Bibliography

Alcamo J., Shaw R., and Hordijk L., eds. (1990). The RAINS Model of Acidification. Science and
Strategies in Europe. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Amann M., Bertok I., Cofala J., Gyarfas F., Heyes C., Klimont Z., and Schöpp W. (1996). Cost-effective
Control of Acidifiaction and Ground-Level Ozone, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria. [An example of an systematic-analytical environmental work.]
Balzer K. (1989). Weather Forecasts, 160 pp., Leipzig: Urania-Verlag (in German). [An introduction
discussing possibilities and limits of weather forecast.]
Cellier F. E. (1991). Continuous System Modelling, Berlin, New York, Tokyo: Springer-Verlag.
Grützner R., ed. (1997). Modelling and Simulation in the Sector of Environment, 350 pp.,
Braunschweig/Wiesbaden: Vieweg-Verlag (in German). [Proceedings of a simulation conference with
some good survey papers.]

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Günther O. (1998). Environmental Information Systems, 244 pp. Berlin, New York, Tokyo: Springer-
Verlag. [A book describing techniques of data capture and information technology.]
Haimes Y. Y. (1977). Hierarchical Analysis of Water Resources Systems, 478 pp., New York: McGraw-
Hill International Book Comp. [A book presenting an excellent overview on modeling and optimization
of large-scale systems applied to water resources systems.]
Haken H. (1978). Synergetics: An Introduction, 382 pp. Berlin, New York, Tokyo: Springer-Verlag,
German edition 1982. [A pioneer book on principles of self-organization.]
Kocak H. (1989). Differential and Difference Equations through Computer Experiments, 224 pp. Berlin,
New York, Tokyo: Springer-Verlag. [A university text book including a disk with a simulator and a
library of fundamental dynamic models.]
Mesarovic M. D., Macko D., and Takahara Y. (1970). Theory of Hierarchical Multilevel Systems, New
York: Academic Press. [A pioneer work reflecting decomposition and hierarchical structures in a broad
area of sciences.]
Nilsson J. and Grennfeldt P. (1988). Critical loads for sulfur and nitrogen. Miljorapport 1988, 16, Nordic
Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, Denmark.

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Odum E. P. (1989). Ecology and Our Endangered Life-Support Systems, Sunderland: Sinauer Associates,

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Inc., German Edition, 1991, 304 pp. Heidelberg: Spektrum Verlagsgesellschaft mbH. [A book

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summarizing principles of ecology, a fundamental and pioneer work.]
Prigogine I., Nicoles G., and Babloyantz A. (1972). Thermodynamics of Evolution I, in Physics Today
25(11), 23–28 and Thermodynamics of Evolution II, Physics Today 25(12), 38–44.
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Rao G. P. and Unbehauen H. (1987). Identification of Continuous-Time Systems. North-Holland, systems
and control series, Vol. 10. [An excellent overview.]
Rotmans J. and de Vries B. (1997). Perspectives on Global Change: The TARGETS Approach, 463 pp.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [A comprehensive analysis and simulation approach using a
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special simulation tool.]

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Sydow A. et al. (1996). Modeling and simulation of air pollution. Transactions of the Society for
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Computer Simulation International, 15(3), 94–136. [Examples for system studies by aid of air pollution,
modeling and simulation, supported by the EU commission, Brussels.]
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The Brockhaus Encyclopedia, Mannheim: F.A. Brockhaus (in German). [Major complementary source.]
The New Encyclopedia Britannica. [Major complementary source.]
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Wunsch G. (1986). Handbook of Systems Theory, 520 pp. Berlin: Akademie-Verlag, (in German). [A
comprehensive overview on systems theory, systems identification and systems simulation.]
Zeigler B. (1984). Multifaceted Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation. London: Academic Press. [A
pioneer book on hierarchical modeling.]
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Biographical Sketch

Prof. Dr. Achim Sydow, mathematician; author of 4 monographs on modeling and simulation and more
than 100 publications. Last Ten Years’ Activities: National Research Center for Information Technology,
Berlin; Founding director of the Research direction (department) for Systems Analysis at GMD.FIRST;
Lectures at the Berlin Technical University (TU); V. Pres. of the International Association for
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS) and the International Environmental Modeling and
Software Society (IEMSS); Member of the German Association of the Advancement of IIASA,
Laxenburg, Austria (since 1993); Member of the Council of the Herman Helmholtz society; Chairman
Genl. Chairman of the 15th IMACS World Conference, Berlin on Scientific Computation, Modelling and
Applied Mathematics; Chairman of the Environmental Modeling Working Group of the European
Consortium for Informatics and Mathematics (ERCIM); Chairman of the (SCS)-Conferences of the
Society for Computer Simulation International on Environmental Modeling and Simulation (San Diego,
San Francisco, Phoenix) and two IMACS Symposia on Systems Analysis and Simulation, Berlin; Guest
Professor at the following universities: Hagen/Germany, Innsbruck/Austria, Las Palmas/Spain,
Lyngby/Denmark, Linz/Austria; editor-in-chief of the journal Systems-Analysis-Modelling-Simulation

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(SAMS) and editor of the Numerical Insights series (published by Gordon $ Breach). Various research
projects (natl., European) in the field of environmental modeling and simulation.

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