WHAT THE FUTURE:

FARMING
Why saving our water supply must
be a priority for everyone PAGE 10

How big food must evolve to feed

the world sustainably PAGE 13

How farm tech is changing how we’ll

feed America PAGE 18

Five tensions that will

drive change PAGE 23

+ Experts from Cargill, Tyson, Ocean Spray

and AGCO about how our changing climate
is driving how and where we grow and
produce food and what that means for
farmers, brands and food shoppers
 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

Can we tech our way out of

a food shortage?
Imagine it’s 2033. Feeding our population is harder. And different. What we grow, where we
grow it and who grows it have all shifted due to macro forces like climate change,
globalization and tech advancements. So what does that look like? We still get to eat, right?

You are likely not a farmer. But it doesn’t take a futurist Investor Kevin Van Trump is bullish on the future of farming
to know that you not only eat food today but will want to in and technology, topics he covers in his must-read newsletter.
five to 10 years. Odds are, much of that will still be farmed. While many are worried about impending food shortages
Or ranched. globally, he makes a case for why that won’t happen.

Farming has always been an industry dependent on both “As humans we've done a crazily good job always of
climate and weather, which has put agriculture at the overcoming complications and problems when they arise,” he
forefront of dealing with climate change. Not only is the says. He sees some adaptation playing out already. “You go

345
future of farming relevant to all of us as eaters, it’s also back 10-12 years, and it didn't seem like we were seeing
relevant to a wide range of products, services and the nearly as much corn growing in the Dakotas. Now it’s a lot less
sectors that produce them, from tech to restaurants and wheat and a lot more corn,” he says. “A lot of my friends and
grocery and CPG to auto and air travel (think biofuels). farmers who are older talk about how much it's changed in
their lifetime with dramatic changes in shifts in the soil.”
million people are affected There are two basic schools of thought about climate
by food insecurity across change: We can modify how we do things now and try He thinks that the tech coming to market in everything from
82 countries, up from 135
million in 2019. to stave off the worst of it or we can adapt to a climate autonomous equipment to gene-editing tool CRISPR to
that is changing. And of course, the correct answer is: seed technology will keep us fed for a long time to come.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2
023/04/mitigate-climate-change- yes, both. But it’s more of an open question as to who exactly will do
food-security/ that feeding.
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WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

The U.S. has been a leader in agriculture because of our And unfortunately, it’s not going to come from the neighbor down
productive soil and abundant water. If that changes, the the road or the daughter or the beginning farmer. It’s investors.”
beneficiaries of these technologies might not be the American
farmer, says Van Trump. Foreign investment is seen as a national security issue by some,
as a Fox Business headline warned that “China can ‘blight’ U.S.
“I hope that North America maintains its food production!” by sabotaging seeds and production.
leadership. South America is coming on like
In this issue we also talk to executives from Cargill, Tyson
gangbusters. We see China and Russia Ventures and Ocean Spray who are changing the way
trying to realign with BRICS and trying they do things today and finding new ways for tomorrow.
to reposition themselves. It’s going to come They’re responding both to climate change and consumer
down to water and natural resources.” change as people want their food to taste good, but also be
healthier, more affordable and sustainably grown. And we talk
In short, what we farm, where it’s farmed, how it’s farmed to AGCO, which is building the farm equipment of the future with
and who (or what) does the farming is all in flux. Texans are selling more autonomy — not to replace farmers, but to help them
off their longhorns as cattle herds move north to better climates. adapt to changes in their business and keep farming later in life.
Farmers are changing the crops they grow to provide more
Whatever your business, the future of farming will impact it, and

10.4
inputs for plant-based meats or biofuels. And investors who are
buying up parcels for water rights are accelerating the separation you, driven by changing climate and changing consumers.
between those who farm the land and those who own it. Solutions are abundant for both adapting and mitigating.
We just need them to grow and scale.
Later in the issue we talk to a farmer who cites outside investors
as one of the biggest challenges he faces to expanding his Matt Carmichael is editor of What the Future billion is the projected
operation and passing it on to his three daughters, who want to and head of the Ipsos Trends & Foresight Lab. peak world population in
take over the family farm when he retires. Farmers, he says, the 2080s.
are “land rich and cash poor. They only have one opportunity (Source: The United Nations)
to sell [their land.] They’re going to try to get the top dollar.

3 ‒ Powered by Ipsos
WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

Contents
1. Territory map 5. Future destinations
The future of the farming will be driven by forces Based on our data and interviews with experts,
coming from six directions. We map them out. we plot out a potential future — a plausible port in our
future journey. Then, thinking of our tensions, we
2. By the numbers consider what happens if one of them shifts. We use
We start with the state of farming today through that as waypoint to ponder how that might send
exclusive Ipsos data and emerging global trends. us to a different scenario, plausible port two. Then, we
outline the Future Jobs to Be Done, giving you a
3. The lay of the land new way to think about the future. Finally, we explore
We talk with experts from Cargill, Tyson, Ocean Spray the optimism gap between what we hope to see in
and AGCO about how climate change, globalization, the future versus what we expect to see.
and science and technology are driving changes in how
and where we grow and produce food and what that 6. Appendix
means for farmers, brands and food shoppers. Want more? We show our work, including the full
text of our expert interviews, our contributors and
4. Tensions links to what we’re reading today that has us thinking
Should water be prioritized for farms or personal about tomorrow.
households? Will people trust lab-grown foods or naturally
occurring foods? Will people pay for sustainability or
just low prices? How people’s opinions shift in the future
could shape the health of the planet and protect our
future food supply.
4 ‒ Powered by Ipsos
 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

Territory: Independent farms vs.

Water

What will drive

industrial farms
Stewardship
Farm Bill

the future of
Restoration
Labor

farming? Corporatization
and regulation
Climate
change

Americans are used to fresh foods in all seasons, in

Agriculture tech
abundance and at an affordable price. How will Sovereignty
Farming Internet of Tech/ Land use/
tomorrow’s farmers and food producers meet the FARMING Minerals
Things equipment resources
demand from a growing and shifting population for Energy
Drones
healthy and sustainable nutrition amid the
uncertainties of global trade and the certainties of
climate change? Brands and businesses will need Food at
Science
investment, innovation and ingenuity to feed a scale
changing world.

Synth biology Macro farming

Robots AI
Vertical farming Traceability

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 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

Farming by the numbers

What people want from food producers

Americans largely 81% 2% 2% 14% 2%

eat everything .... You regularly eat You do not eat meat, You do not eat You only You do not
both animal and but do eat other any animal occasionally eat meat but
non-animal animal products products at all eat meat or fish do eat fish
Q. Which of the following products (e.g., eggs, cheese, (vegan) (flexitarian) (pescatarian)
best describes your diet? (omnivorous) milk) (vegetarian)

… But they also want less processed, more sustainable foods

Q. When thinking about how you make food choices, do you do any of the following, or not? (% Yes)

63%
48% 47%
40%
34% 31%
25% 22% 21%
14% 10%

I limit the amount I prioritize foods I prioritize organic I prioritize non- I track calories I follow a diet to I prioritize plant- I avoid certain I avoid eating I avoid animal- I follow a diet
of processed that are foods or those GMO foods or nutrients / manage a health based foods to foods because red meat based foods to comply with
foods I eat produced more that minimize macros to manage condition (e.g., reduce greenhouse of allergies my religion
sustainably use of chemicals my weight diabetes, blood gas emissions
or pesticides pressure, cholesterol,
gluten-free)

6 ‒ Powered by Ipsos (Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)
 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

Farming by the numbers

How people feel about the environmental impact of agriculture and industry

Most people feel positively about sustainable farming but negatively about using crop chemicals
Q. Based on what you may know or feel, how much of a positive or negative impact do the following have on the environment? (% Total)

82% 79%

55%
47%
35% 34%
23% 21%

Thermoelectric power Using synthetic biology

Using pesticides and
Recycling Using sustainable Raising livestock (electric power generated to create ingredients
Growing almonds Using fertilizers herbicides to protect
consumer goods farming practices for food from coal, oil, gas-fired, in a lab instead of
farm crops
nuclear and other materials) growing them in nature

3% 3%
12%
17%
30% 30%
36%

54%
Positive Impact Negative Impact

7 ‒ Powered by Ipsos (Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)
WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

Emerging How global views on climate can

Global trends shape world food systems
The world’s food systems face a growing Most people globally think more extreme
dual threat: The first is one people can’t weather is likely in 2023
control, the second is one they can.
Most people around the world agree that there will Q. Please tell me how likely or unlikely you think the following
be more extreme weather events in their country in are to happen [in 2023]. There will be more extreme weather
2023 than last year. If reality matches expectations, events in [my country] in 2023 than there were in 2022.
once-in-a-generation floods, droughts and other Global average
catastrophes could wipe out the crops that feed 65% 21%
nations and the world. As these events happen more BRIC
69% 20%
frequently and more intensely, Americans are more APAC
concerned about the environment and climate than 67% 18%
Middle East/Africa
many global peers. 66% 21%
LATAM
66% 21%
An equally large threat is the distrust of world citizens North America
of climate science. Eight in ten people globally 65% 19%
G-7 Countries
think scientists don’t know what they’re talking about 65% 22%
on environmental issues. Americans are among Europe
the more trusting global citizens, but with 69% sharing 62% 28%
European Union
this sentiment, that’s of little comfort. In the U.S., 59% 24%
climate change is one of the most divisive issues.
Likely Unlikely
That could stymie new research funds in the 2023
Farm Bill renewal. (Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey conducted Oct. 21-Nov. 4, 2022, among
8 ‒ Powered by Ipsos 24,471 adults in 36 markets, including 1,001 U.S. adults.)
 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

People globally doubt scientists on the environment

Most people globally think scientists don’t know what they're talking about on environmental issues
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Even the scientists don't really know what they are talking about on environmental issues. (% Total)

97 96 96 95 94 93
93 93 93 92 92 92 91 91
90 90 88 88 88 88 88 87 87
86 86 86 86 85 85 84 84
83 83 82
77 77 76 75
73 73 71 71
69 69 69 68 68 68 67
61 59

Ma laysia

Greece
China
Mo ro cco
Me xico

Brazil
Panamá

Canada
Germa ny

United States
Fra nce
Turkey
Costa Rica

Netherlands
Puerto Rico

Singapore

Pakistan

Spain

Australia
Nigeria

Morocco
Mexico

New Zealand

Italy
Panama
Indonesia
Ecuador

Israel

Thailand

France

Poland
Vietnam

Bulgaria
Argentina
Guatemala

Dominican Republic

South Korea

Chile

Belgium

Great Britain
Sweden
Global

Kenya

Philippines

Colombia

India
Peru

South Africa

Germany
UAE

Japan
KSA
Zambia

Malaysia

Denmark
China

Hong Kong SAR

Greece

Romania
(Source: Ipsos Global Trends survey conducted Sept. 23-Nov. 14, 2022, among 48,541 adults surveyed across 50 markets. For full methodology see ipsosglobaltrends.com.)

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 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix
Climate
change

Why saving our water supply

FARMING

must be a priority for everyone

Pilar Cruz
Chief sustainability officer, Cargill

Feeding people requires immense amounts of water, whether to

irrigate crops, nourish livestock or process all those source ingredients
into the foods that people eat. Yet few people know that farming is one
of the most water-demanding industries. But as the climate bakes the
planet, farmers and food producers want agriculture to be part of the
solution, doing more with less water and to restoring freshwater
resources. That’s a major focus for Pilar Cruz, the chief sustainability
officer of Cargill, one of the world’s largest food ingredient suppliers.

41%
of Americans rank the public water supply as
using the most water each year, while 17% rank
crop irrigation as using the most water annually.

(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults)

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 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix
Climate
change

FARMING

Such an effort takes cooperation and

innovation. Water (with land use), climate and
Americans underestimate how much water farming uses
people are among Cargill’s top sustainability Q. Please rank the following in the order that you think uses the most water each year. Please use a scale of 1 to 5,
priorities. Since it has a significant role at the with 1 as using the most water each year and 5 as using the least water each year. (Mean guess)
center of the food supply chain and a footprint
that spans 70 countries, Cargill connects
partners, stakeholders, customers and non-
governmental organizations to develop and
implement agriculture-driven solutions for
conserving and restoring water, says Cruz.

“It takes a village to bring water

Public water supply Industrial Crop irrigation Livestock Thermoelectric power
solutions to scale. We know we (electric power
cannot do this alone.” generated from coal,
oil, gas-fired, nuclear
and other materials)
Some regenerative agriculture practices use
cover crops to protect the soil rather than for
harvesting, and sustainable grazing to help
Rank based on
mean guess 1 2 3 4 5
retain water in the soil. Cargill is also investing
in more efficient irrigation systems, which use Actual rank 3 4 2 5 1
sensors to track humidity, measure the sun’s
intensity, and identify the best time to irrigate. Gallons per day
39,000 14,786 118,000 2,000 132,900
Early results suggest that the systems can help (millions)
save 30% to 50% of the total amount of water (Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults; U.S. Geological Survey 2015.)
farmers use for irrigation while improving yield.

Read the full Q&A on page 35.

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 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming
Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

Land use/
FARMING resources

How nationalism feeds Americans’

priorities for future land use
Debates are raging over the topic The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine highlight the
of land — both its designated use need for securing domestic resources of energy, food and
(farming, energy, preservation, supplies as a key element of national security strategy; however,
we lack consensus on the right mix and prioritization. At the
reparations) as well as its
same time, aging farmers expect to transfer millions of acres in
ownership (public vs. private, the coming decades, and younger farmers say they lack access
foreign vs. domestic). What’s to available land due to rising competition.
certain is that these choices will

78%
have potentially drastic Looking ahead, we can anticipate energy independence and
implications at home and abroad. transitions away from fossil fuels to start impeding more on
arable land. Adding to the debate are calls to return land to
native tribes and give land to descendants of formerly enslaved
of Americans agree that the U.S. people, a prospect that is often split among party lines.
should restrict foreign governments or
companies from owning American
farmland.
While these issues will continue to play out, Ipsos data makes it
clear that people across the spectrum are thinking America first,
says Trevor Sudano, foresight lead at Ipsos Strategy3.
(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023,
among 1,120 U.S. adults.) “Brands with a stake in land ownership need to be
ready to convey why their use is better for the
12 ‒ Powered by Ipsos
country than alternatives.”
 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

How big food must evolve to

FARMING

feed the world sustainably

Food at
scale

Rahul Ray
Senior director and investment lead, Tyson Ventures

How do you feed the world sustainably in an increasingly climate-

stressed planet? Tyson Foods, one of the world’s largest food
companies and a recognized leader in protein through its brands
like Tyson, Hillshire Farm and Jimmy Dean, sees innovation
as the answer. Rahul Ray is senior director and investment lead
at Tyson Ventures, the company’s venture capital group.
Ray’s team is exploring innovation, AI and other technologies
to produce more proteins for more people sustainably.

64%
of Americans expect the cost of the
food they eat to get worse in the
next decade.

(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)

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 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

FARMING

Food at
Over the next 30 years, Ray expects the world Americans have a bleak outlook on the future cost of food and water scale

to add 2 billion more people, which will require

finding ways to produce more high-quality
food sustainably and affordably for a changing Q. Looking into the next decade, do you think the following will get better or worse? (% Selected)
population in evolving population centers.
The readability of nutrition labels on food
That means innovating not just conventional 11% 30% 47% 9% 3%
protein, but also alternative proteins.
The variety of food I can buy
11% 26% 40% 19% 5%
Then, it’s a matter of getting those products to
The quality of the food I eat
people. The food industry has a unique supply 10% 23% 45% 17% 5%
chain issue because it can’t flex up or down My access to healthy food
based on demand like other sectors, he says. 12% 21% 46% 17% 4%
The overall quality of food
“You have an organic product 10% 21% 45% 20% 4%
that’s coming in the door no The environmental impact of the food I eat
matter what. You have to 9% 20% 44% 23% 5%

manage your supply and The quality of the water I drink

9% 17% 49% 20% 5%
demand in a way that you My access to food year-round
eliminate waste.” 9% 16% 55% 17% 3%
My access to clean water
So, the venture group is recruiting its next 9% 15% 53% 19% 5%
class of startups focused on upcycling waste. The cost of the food I eat
7% 12% 17% 43% 21%
Read the full Q&A on page 37. The cost of the water I drink
7% 11% 36% 37% 10%

Will get much better Will get somewhat better Will stay the same Will get somewhat worse Will get much worse

14 ‒ Powered by Ipsos (Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)
 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

Here’s how Americans FARMING

want to fix food deserts

Food at
scale

It’s estimated that 18.8 million Americans live in a Americans are most interested in local solutions that expand
“food desert,” an area with limited access to affordable,
nutritious food. This gap, driven by income inequality, access to affordable and fresh food
systemic racism and other inequities, can have long- Q. How interested are you, if at all, in each of the following so that you have more access to affordable,
lasting impacts on health and general well-being. fresh food? (% Interested)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ipsos research finds that Americans affected by food Grocery stores that sell affordable, fresh food opening in your area
deserts are enthusiastic about some solutions.
Community-based proposals, like opening new grocery Better access to farmers market

stores, are popular. But people are split on other Pop-up markets coming to your area to sell affordable, fresh food
ideas, like delivery services or government subsidies.
Local support for community gardens
Regardless of the strategy, companies need to
Government funding for companies that work to provide your
increase awareness and support healthy lifestyles, community with more affordable, fresh food
says Manuel Garcia-Garcia, global lead of Free transportation to bring you to a grocery store that sells
Neuroscience at Ipsos. affordable, fresh food

App-based delivery services that bring groceries to your home

“Whether they invest in fresh Better access to public transportation that can transport you to stores
ingredients or equitable access, where you can purchase fresh food
brands will have a responsibility to Government-owned grocery stores
improve health outcomes.” Total White Black Hispanic

15 ‒ Powered by Ipsos (Source: Ipsos polling conducted between October 10-27, 2022, among 1,085 U.S. adults who report living in a food desert.)
 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

How science can pull more

FARMING

value from existing crops

Science

Katy Galle
Senior vice president, research, development and sustainability, Ocean Spray

As the head of research, development and sustainability at Ocean

Spray, Katy Galle is paying close attention to what people want from
their food. Once, a snack was just a snack. Now, Americans expect
health benefits, sustainability and more from each bite. But while
synthetic biology can bring these benefits, many Americans distrust
GMOs. Galle believes that traditional horticulture can deliver the
healthier, more affordable and tastier options that people crave.

83%
of Americans who are familiar with organic
food view it favorably.

(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,039 U.S. adults.)

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 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

FARMING

Farmers are under pressure to increase yields How Americans feel about food ingredients and processes Science

and minimize costs. But Galle believes the

future of sustainable, affordable and flavorful Q. How familiar are you, if at all, with each of the following terms? / How favorably or unfavorably do
food lies at the intersection of conventional you feel about the following terms? (% Total)
agriculture and unconventional thinking.
11% 89% Organic 83% 17%
People may demand cheap, shelf-stable,
sweet snacks, but Galle is confident that out- 15% 85% Gluten-free 75% 25%
of-the-box innovation can help farmers and
food manufacturers meet those needs without 21% 79% Plant-based protein 72% 28%
genetic modification, whether by repurposing
familiar ingredients or developing new recipes. 29% 71% GMO 44% 56%

“I’m really looking for those 32% 68% Sustainable food production 88% 12%
synergistic formula blends,
whether it’s a blend of nutrients 57% 43% Cultured/cultivated meat 58% 42%
or other ingredients that can
have functionality while also 67% 33% Vertical farming 80% 20%

delivering great taste.” 69% 31% 74% 26%

Regenerative farming

Galle thinks that in the future, the most

82% 18% CRISPR 51% 49%
important innovations won’t change what we
eat, but how we cultivate and harvest it in the
86% 14% Soy Leghemoglobin 51% 49%
first place.

Read the full Q&A on page 39. Total Familiar Total Favorable

17 ‒ Powered by Ipsos (Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)
 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

How farm tech is changing

Tech/
FARMING
equipment

how we’ll feed America

Seth Crawford
Senior vice president and general manager of precision ag and digital, AGCO

Think Teslas are high-tech? You should see the cabin of

today’s combines and tractors. Farming technology often
leads the way for more consumer uses. Where is farm
tech today, and how is it changing the way we feed America?
Seth Crawford from ag equipment manufacturer AGCO
gives us the lay of the land.

52%
of Americans believe that the government should
provide tax credits or subsidies to family farmers
who invest in technology to help them compete with
large industrial farms and be more sustainable.

(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)

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Tech/
FARMING
equipment

Farmers have been using GPS for decades Actions Americans agree the government should take to help
to get the most yield out of every inch of their farmers be more sustainable
land. The combination of tech and ag is only
Q. Which of the following actions, if any, should government take to support farmers to be more sustainable?
increasing. Farming machines today are
quieter, which creates less stress on nearby
livestock. They are safer, with better filtration
so farmers aren’t breathing fertilizer and other
chemicals. They’re faster, and speed matters
when you’re making 80 passes a day on
your field. And they’re more sustainable,
reducing chemical use while increasing yield.

52% 41% 32% 13% 8% 1% 14%

All industries can benefit from the lessons
AGCO learns in ag design, says Crawford.

“A lot of times people think the Provide tax credits

or subsidies to
Fund technology
that helps farmers
Expand broadband
internet services
Fund robots,
drones and
Fund robots,
drones and
Other None of the above

tech is just for the young ones family farmers who

invest in technology
reduce their
water use
to more rural areas
to be able to use
autonomous farm
equipment to
autonomous farm
equipment to
in the industry. Absolutely not. to help them more technology protect the prevent farmers
I know plenty of 80-year-old compete with large
industrial farms
for more precise
farming
environment and
improve soil fertility
from needing to
hire foreign labor
farmers that are fully decked out
with their technology.” (Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)

Making the complicated simple for an older

audience means it works better for everyone.

Read the full Q&A on page 41.

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 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming
Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

Tech/
FARMING
equipment

How AI could guide decision-

making from farm to table
Breakthroughs in AI and Imagine going to your local store wearing augmented reality
machine learning are already smart glasses or visiting a virtual store via virtual reality. As you
boosting agricultural innovation, pick up a food item, your device displays information related to
the sustainability of the food source, rates its fit with your
from autonomous tractors
wellness goals, or shows a quick rundown of recipes.
to sensors that gather data
for sustainability practices. The potential applications are broad — and many shoppers are
But in the years to come, this interested. New research conducted by Ipsos Innovation reveals
technological shift could that one in two Americans are interested in leveraging AI

47%
also transform the consumer algorithms that analyze their preferences, habits, behavior,
end of the supply chain. health and wellness goals to offer personalized product
recommendations, says Christo VanDerWalt, a vice president in
Ipsos’ U.S. Innovation practice.
of Americans say they consider
wearable technology to be important “AI can guide consumer decision-making in a
to making their lives easier.
way that’s better for the individual, their budget,
and the planet.”
(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 10-13, 2023,
among 1,006 U.S. adults.) By understanding people and the information they need about
sustainability, nutrition and affordability, brands can improve
20 ‒ Powered by Ipsos shopping experiences and earn customer loyalty.
 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix Corporatization
and
regulation

How this farmer is planning

FARMING

for an uncertain future

Dale Hanson
Farmer

It would be remiss to talk about the future of farming and not talk to
a farmer. Dale Hanson knows full well the challenges facing the industry
that has supported his family for generations. Some challenges are local
and specific to his region of Montana; some aren’t. He feels the effects
of globalization personally, but he’s also fortunate not to be affected by
some of the key challenges. Hanson is hopeful about his own farm,
although he sees clouds around farming’s future in general.

46%
of Democrats most support the Farm Bill proposal
to maintain government food assistance for low-
income households while 25% of Republicans and
39% of independents do.

(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)

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and
regulation

FARMING

Because farming demands skills that are How Americans feel about who should own or use U.S. land
learned over time, finding workers is an
ongoing challenge, says Hanson. His three Q. Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. (% Agree)
adult daughters are taking over and expanding
the farm. However, they, like his wife, have 84%
77% 77%
other jobs to make ends meet. 72%
71%
75%
65%
63% 67% 66%
57% 58% 59% 58%
Not all farmers have another generation 47% 51% 48%
49% 43% 45% 44%
interested in staying on the farm. And not all
34% 32%
farmers can afford to pass their land (where
most of their wealth is) to their kids. Foreign 17%
investors, looking to secure irrigation rights, are
driving up prices, says Hanson.

“If somebody's getting ready to The U.S. should

restrict foreign
Farmers should Anyone in the U.S.
be paid for land should be able to
Land should be
prioritized for
America should
return lands to
America should
only use crops
The U.S.
should restrict
America should
give land to
retire, they probably don't have governments or they don't farm purchase and use farming over native tribes grown in America farmland descendants
companies from for a season(s) land they own for mining or ownership to of formerly
a lot of money saved, but they owning American to regenerate the whatever purpose energy (e.g., oil, farmers only enslaved people
have a lot of value in their land. farming land land's nutrients they choose wind, solar)

They only have one opportunity

to sell it.” Total Democrat Independent Republican

He worries about the impact if those sales (Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)
aren’t going to the next generation of farmers
but to investors willing to outbid other buyers.

Read the full Q&A on page 43.

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 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix

Five tensions that will drive change:

1. Crops or lawns? Technology can only do so much for farming. We have yet to imagine crops that
don’t require any water. Water shortages are not an easy problem to solve, and we
could certainly hit a future where we have widespread, massive restrictions on water
for personal use. Luckily, we might be ready to accept these, at least in the abstract.
This tension could easily move if the choice were “water for my lawn.” One worrying
aspect is that there can be no one-size-fits-all approach. “We have consistently
adopted a local approach to this global crisis because water challenges are so
different from place to place,” says Pilar Cruz, chief sustainability officer of Cargill.

A majority of people prioritize water for farmers

over landscaping

Water for lawns, golf courses

Water for farming and
and other personal and
food production should 84% 16%
recreational uses should
be prioritized
be prioritized

Q. For each of the pairs of statements, please select the statement that comes closest to your view, even if neither statement is exactly right. (% Total)
(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)
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Five tensions that will drive change:

2. Convenience or Sustainability is on the upswing. When we asked about this tension a year ago, the split
was 67% / 33%. That’s a noticeable shift. But while this tension is becoming tighter,

sustainability? Rahul Ray, senior director and investment lead at Tyson Ventures, thinks industry will
have to make it easier for people to avoid having to choose between convenience and
sustainability. “It’s really a question of and, not or. We are innovating on the protein
production side, not just conventional protein, but alternative proteins,” he says. “Then,
how do you get the produced protein to the consumer? That is a whole supply chain
problem. Finally, we look at how we do this in the context of sustainability.”

People choose convenience over sustainability

When I buy and prepare When I buy and prepare

59% 41%
foods, I prioritize convenience foods, I prioritize sustainability

Q. For each of the pairs of statements, please select the statement that comes closest to your view, even if neither statement is exactly right. (% Total)
(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)
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Five tensions that will drive change:

3. Trust nature or Trust is a tricky thing, especially when it comes to something as ill-defined as
“natural.” Is a synthetic ingredient with the same genetic profile as the “natural”

science? version equal or different in a customer’s mind? It’s clear that “natural” alone isn’t
going to feed the world sustainably. Science needs to be more involved. That said,
creating products and scaling them are two different problems. Ocean Spray’s Katy
Galle says we need to be cognizant of that. “It's an important role of R&D to vet these
technologies, but to also stick with them as they scale and evolve,” she says.

People significantly trust natural over lab-created foods

I trust foods that are

I only trust foods that are
72% 28% developed or created
naturally occurring
through science

Q. For each of the pairs of statements, please select the statement that comes closest to your view, even if neither statement is exactly right. (% Total)
(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)
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Five tensions that will drive change:

4. Support family This is a bit of a false tension, but it reflects a dynamic many think is at play. Today there’s
often little difference between “family” farms and “corporate” farms. Farms, even those

farms or industrial controlled by families, have been getting bigger and are often contracted out to big
agriculture producers. Sometimes the farmers don’t even own the land. The pandemic put

farms? our food sources and supply chains more in the spotlight. So as people learn more about
this industry, will these lines blur and will public support shift, or maybe even dry up?
Farmer Dale Hanson worries that the changing dynamics will hurt farming and family
farmers. “You tend to take things more seriously and do a better job on it for the simple fact
that it's your land. These bigger farms — it all turns into a big business,” he says.

Two in three Americans say the government should

support family farms over industrial farms

The government should The government should

subsidize family farms more 68% 32% subsidize whatever farms feed
than corporate industrial farms the most people

Q. For each of the pairs of statements, please select the statement that comes closest to your view, even if neither statement is exactly right. (% Total)
(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)
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Five tensions that will drive change:

5. Funding from Most people think that government should have a role in funding sustainable farming
practices, more than businesses. But we’ve met government. Funding often comes with a

government or string attached: regulation. AGCO’s Seth Crawford thinks that sustainability efforts are
working so well that farmers will be required to comply and prove them. “We’re going to see

business? a regulatory environment where farmers have to document operations, and that’s going to
require certain technology, because it's proving to be much more sustainable,” he says. He
sees AGCO’s role as making that easier by having the equipment streamline the reporting
of how it’s used. So maybe this tension will become less tense as business and
governmental efforts support rather than conflict each other.

More Americans think government should fund sustainable

farming technology R&D than business

The government should

Business should fund more
fund more sustainable 60% 40%
sustainable farming practices
farming practices

Q. For each of the pairs of statements, please select the statement that comes closest to your view, even if neither statement is exactly right. (% Total)
(Source: Ipsos survey conducted Mar. 13-14, 2023, among 1,120 U.S. adults.)
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Farming destinations I Appendix
Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations

Plausible People get religion on saving

Tech/
FARMING
equipment

port one: water and the planet

It’s 2033. Water restrictions that in 2023 were mostly theoretical start to turn
into actual policy proposals, which turn into regulation, which turns
into case law. But eventually people decide to actually prioritize
The Hoover Dam is in danger,
farmland for the increasingly precious resource of water, once
as is the future of almond thought to be infinite and abundant. It literally falls from the sky for
farming. But people catch on to free! Until it doesn’t.
the urgency of the water and
climate crises. Turns out that We adapt. Replacing grass in our yards decreases our dependance
on water and helps return some biodiversity and pollinators. We
having a well-watered lawn and
learn from South Africa how to bring ourselves back from the brink
lush golf courses aren’t the only with changes big and small like shortening our showers.
kind of landscape available.
Science and technology help, too. We lean into vertical farms that
help shorten the supply chain and bring more foods closer to the
communities that eat them. We move past today’s better pesticides
into small robots with lasers that remove weeds but don’t harm
crops or ecosystems.

Immigration restrictions loosen as policymakers catch up to the fact

that as the geography of farming follows the water as climate
changes, the mobility of skilled farm labor needs to be prioritized.

It also turns out that the threat of widespread hunger can be a

motivator for all sides to work together.
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destinations I Appendix

Waypoints
The poet Samuel Taylor Today people overwhelmingly say they prioritize water for farming over water for other uses like
Coleridge wrote an oddly watering lawns and golf courses. It’s reasonable to think that because such restrictions haven’t really
prescient line. “Water, water been a permanent part of our reality … yet. But we are hurtling toward a future where that’s
going to be one of many things that need to be done if we want to keep growing food. What happens
everywhere, nor any drop when governments big (federal) and small (local and even homeowners associations) start
to drink.” Coasts may be coming for your grass and your lush 18th green? Then “growing food” will seem more abstract and
overwhelmed with ocean harder to support. 2023’s multistate drama about proportioning the water from the Colorado
but inland might go dry. river may be just the start. Those state-level restrictions will certainly trickle down to the individual
Too much water, in the wrong soon and continue.
places. None of it useful.

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Farming destinations I Appendix
Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations

Plausible Water becomes the new oil, and

port two: few owners control the supply
It’s 2033 and it’s ... dry. Like All of this sounds bad. But here’s what’s worse. Shadowy shell
Dust Bowl dry. But wider corporations, foreign nation states, private equity and wealthy
individuals spent the 2020s quietly buying up any parcel of land
spread. While occasional
adjacent to a supply of fresh water as they could. As a result, this
periods of overwhelming gave the government fewer protective levers to pull, assuming there
deluges occur, as the West even was political will to use them. When regulations and restrictions
coast saw happen in 2022 and are proposed, grass-roots organizations pop up to fight for their
2023, a boom-bust cycle of “right” to keep the Great American Lawn.
water doesn’t resolve long-term
Water is the new oil. New cartels bloom.
drought reduction. The world
doesn’t move fast enough on This makes it harder for farmers to buy land. It makes it more costly
desalination technology to to do just about anything because water rights have become a more
convert sea water into fresh expensive commodity. And the climate shifts the center of gravity for
where food producers can farm, and ranchers can sustain livestock.
water, nor on finding ways to
This was already happening in 2023. Then it accelerated.
collect and store water when it
does rain in big bursts. Farming’s long move away from small, family enterprises to larger,
industrialized conglomerates accelerates. Food costs inevitably rise,
despite all that industry does to improve yields and sustainability
efforts. Misinformation makes us distrustful of scientific
advancements that could help mitigate all of these problems. This
does not end well.

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destinations I Appendix

Future Jobs to Be Done

The traditional “Jobs to Be Done” framework focuses on the tasks and outcomes
that people are trying to accomplish and why they hire products and services to
help them achieve that outcome. We don’t buy water; we hire it to quench our thirst
and sustain us. We don’t buy a bunch of bananas; we hire it for a tasty experience
and nutritious boost.

Ipsos takes this theory forward with future Jobs to Be Done (fJTBD). We envision
powerful and plausible future scenarios through strategic foresight. These scenarios
help us define the circumstances in which people may find themselves, like in the
metaverse. What will their new needs be? Then we use fJTBD to tie these
scenarios to actions organizations can take today and tomorrow to help people
meet those needs.

While many needs are enduring and do not change over time (e.g., our need
for food and water to survive), the context of that job (e.g., a world with greater
food and water scarcity) will change that job space and the potential solutions
and alternatives. Because of this, we often create fJTBD clusters that are
higher-order and needs-driven. Within each, we can envision more granular
fJTBD to illuminate opportunity spaces to meet human needs in new ways.

Sophie Washington is a senior consultant with Ipsos Strategy3.

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Potential Future Jobs to Be

Done related to farming
1 2 3

Help me survive, Help me stay within my Help me nourish, protect

considering the collective budget and heal myself
Humans are hard-wired to survive, and food Record-high inflation in the early 2020s Food systems have changed — and so has
and water are essential needs. In a future coupled with continued uncertain food. Soil degradation means fruits and
where these basics become scarce and macroeconomic conditions, supply chain vegetables aren’t as nutritious anymore, and
difficult to access, we may turn inward to issues, and climate change altering farming more and more food is processed. But at the
prioritize our individual needs versus the leave people hungry, unable to afford the same time, people turn to plants for healing
needs of the collective. food they love. as food both heals us and leads to sickness.
Potential fJTBD: Potential fJTBD: Potential fJTBD:
• Help me access water to survive and thrive • Help me provide for myself, my loved ones, • Help protect me from chronic disease,
• Help me live in harmony with my community and/or my family without breaking the bank inflammation and ill effects from the food I eat

• Help defend my rights to food and water • Help me afford high quality food and drink so • Supercharge my wellbeing in a tasty way
I don’t have to trade down
Imagine a world where … small coastal town • Give me food that can heal for optimal health
residents either join mass migration toward Imagine a world where … a vertical farm in
Imagine a world where … Amazon and online
inland freshwater lakes or fight inwardly after Jersey City, New Jersey, supplies a large portion
pharmacies experience mass shortages of food
losing battles with corporations who bought up of New York City with fresh produce at a lower
supplement multivitamin/minerals because of
local water rights. cost thanks to a decentralized supply chain.
chronic, overwhelming demand.
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Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations

Future optimism gaps

Americans want a future where Americans have a bleak outlook on the future cost of food and water
food is both convenient and
nutritious, where food is Q. For each of the following future scenarios, select the one that [you most want/seems most likely] to happen. (% Total)
affordable and where it’s easy
to learn the origins of their food. A world where healthy food is affordable 87% A world where healthy food is only available
for everyone 61% to those who can afford it
But there is a sizable gap between their
hope and their optimism that that will A world where processed foods that are
81%
A world where processed foods that are
happen. So how can brands and convenient are as nutritious as fresh foods 60% convenient are made for flavor and fun
policymakers help people get to the future
79%
they want? Progress is being made on A world where farming is a desirable and A world where farming is more automated
gainful career for young people 55% and needs fewer human farmers
labeling of sources. Some restaurants, even
chains like Subway and Chipotle, have 77%
A world where the food I buy can be easily A world where I can only trace the food I
leaned into this and built sources into the traced from farm to store buy if I buy direct from the farmer
61%
design and decoration of their locations.
A world where environmental conservation 75% A world where commerce takes priority over
Affordability will likely be an increasing takes priority over industry 55% environmental conservation
challenge, but innovation in products,
services, tracing, labeling and marketing can A world where more food is grown locally in 52% A world where more food is grown where it
all help close some of these optimism gaps. indoor farms to meet the needs of the community 47% naturally grows best and exported

A world where we make needed cuts now in 34% A world where we make advances in
water usage to assure we have enough 41% technology to solve water shortages

Want Likely

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 WHAT THE FUTURE I Farming Territory I By the numbers I The lay of the land I Tensions I Future destinations I Appendix
Appendix

Appendix
In this section, 1. Full Q&As
we show our work
and our workers 2. Signals

3. Contributors

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Appendix

Why saving our water supply must

be a priority for everyone
Pilar Cruz
Chief sustainability officer, Cargill

Feeding people requires immense Kate MacArthur: How does agriculture’s demand land use and water, and people (or social sustainability).
amounts of water, whether to for water shape how companies should manage Our water strategy doesn’t just sit with me as Cargill’s
irrigate crops, nourish livestock or their water use and pollution risk? CSO. It is a priority and business imperative for
process all those source our board, our CEO, the executive team and our
ingredients into the foods that Pilar Cruz: We started by assessing our risks. A few business leaders. And it isn’t just a priority for Cargill.
people eat. Yet few people know years ago, we partnered with WRI [World Resources We play a critical role in supporting the water goals
that farming is one of the most Institute], a well-respected research organization of our customers like Walmart, Target, McDonald’s
water-demanding industries. But as that prioritizes action where it is needed most, based and PepsiCo.
the climate bakes the planet, on the specific challenges faced by local businesses,
farmers and food producers want communities, and the surrounding region. Together, we MacArthur: What is the strategy?
agriculture to be part of the developed a clear and well-defined water strategy for
solution, doing more with less our company, which focuses on restoration, reduction Cruz: At Cargill, we have consistently adopted a local
water and to restoring freshwater of water pollutants and providing local communities approach to this global crisis because water challenges
resources. That’s a major focus for with access to clean, safe water. are so different from place to place. In Thailand,
Pilar Cruz, the chief sustainability for example, our solution links up nitrate-rich discharge
officer of Cargill, one of the world’s MacArthur: How important is water as a corporate water from a Cargill facility to nearby rice farms,
largest food ingredient suppliers. or a strategic goal? providing a sustainable source of water and fertilizer.
For each of our priority facilities around the world,
Cruz: Cargill has a comprehensive sustainability and indeed for every water-stressed region, we
strategy that focuses on the three specific areas [where] believe there is an effective local solution found
we can have the greatest impact: climate change, within agriculture.
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MacArthur: How much power and influence do you

actually have to drive change throughout the rest of
MacArthur: How are you thinking about how to adapt
for future climate change?
“The more that we
the supply chain? can use our position
Cruz: Regenerative agriculture is one of the programs that
Cruz: It takes a village to bring water solutions to scale. we are very optimistic about because we have seen clear, at the center of the
We know we cannot do this alone. The more that we can
use our position at the center of the world’s agricultural
tangible benefits, both from a climate perspective but also
in water restoration and water conservation. From a
world’s agricultural
supply chain to bring companies, governments and NGOs technology perspective, we are excited about more efficient supply chain to
together, the more we can scale effective solutions. irrigation systems. In Mexico, we have a program in place
We have very proactive strategic investments with non- with corn farmers in Sonora and Sinaloa, which are bring companies,
governmental organizations such as WRI, The Nature two of the most drought-prone states in the country. governments and
Conservancy, the Tropical Forest Alliance, and WWF By implementing these improved, more efficient irrigation
[World Wildlife Foundation] because they have capabilities systems, the farmers in Sinaloa and Sonora are seeing NGOs together, the
more we can scale
and access to local networks that sometimes we may a reduction in water use by 30% to 50%, and that is huge.
not have immediately within Cargill. At the same time, they've seen an increase in yields by

MacArthur: What is your most ambitious goal?

10%, which is a nice improvement, too. effective solutions.”
MacArthur: Can you give a specific example of how
Cruz: Cargill’s commitment is to restore 600 billion liters of you’re using those systems?
water around the world by 2030 and reduce water pollutants
by 5 billion kilograms, which is huge. In addition, we have Cruz: The sensors check for things such as humidity, the
prioritized 72 facilities within our company where we are intensity of the sun in the field, and the best time looking at
implementing water stewardship practices, and lastly, our historical yields of productivity for farmers to irrigate.
commitment to reach 500,000 people in priority communities
with safe drinking water by 2030. That would be the Kate MacArthur is managing editor of What the Future.
equivalent of almost twice the water that we use in our
facilities in about a year or supplying water for a city of 10
million people for an entire year — think Seoul or London.

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Appendix

How big food must evolve to

feed the world sustainably
Rahul Ray
Senior director and investment lead, Tyson Ventures

How do you feed the world Kate MacArthur: How does sustainability fit into Ray: A big part of our challenge is managing the
sustainably in an increasingly the larger priority of feeding the world? cadence of supply and demand, which is unique to food.
climate-stressed planet? We talk about the automotive industry; you can flex up
Tyson Foods, one of the world’s Rahul Ray: Everything has to be seen through the and down your production based on your consumer
largest food companies and a lens of sustainability. demand. In the food space, you have an organic product
recognized leader in protein that's coming in the door no matter what. You have to
through its brands like Tyson, MacArthur: What’s the biggest opportunity for manage your supply and demand in a way that you
Hillshire Farm and Jimmy Dean, innovation to solve for feeding the world at scale? eliminate waste.
sees innovation as the answer.
Rahul Ray is senior director Ray: We’re going to add about 2 billion people in MacArthur: Speaking of cutting waste, you are
and investment lead at Tyson the next 30 years. We need to be able to find ways to recruiting your next class of startups in the venture
Ventures, the company’s produce more high-quality food sustainably and group, and you’re focusing on upcycling.
venture capital group. Ray’s affordably. So, it’s really a question of and, not or. We are Where does that fit in?
team is exploring innovation, innovating on the protein production side, not just
AI and other technologies to conventional protein, but alternative proteins. Then how Ray: It all goes back to we have finite natural resources,
produce more proteins for more do you get the produced protein to the consumer. and how you optimize it more is by reducing waste. One
people sustainably. That is a whole supply chain problem. Finally, we look way is taking only the inputs that you need to produce
at how we do this in the context of sustainability. what you need. The other way is to recycle what you
don’t need and upcycle it in a way that you can produce
MacArthur: Is there one area that’s a bigger priority some value. We can look at waste from our plants and
than others? say, “Hey, how can I take this into adjacent industries?”
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MacArthur: Can you give an example? It's only so much you can get a consumer to pay up on the
basis of mission if it’s a consumer staple, and you have to
“Consumers care
Ray: We looked at one of our waste products from our cattle pay a premium for it. We are right now in that second phase about three things:
program and how can we convert that into fiber so it can be of how do we solve that viable business model?
used for footwear. Another classic point is looking at insect price, taste and
proteins, so how you take waste and feed it to black soldier
flies. Black soldier flies are these amazing creatures that
MacArthur: For many people, a benefit of small-scale,
local food is feeling connected to what you’re eating.
personal health.
have an amazing DNA composition. They never get sick. How can large-scale protein providers facilitate that So you have to be able
But more importantly, they have a high protein content that trust and connection?
can be used as fish meal. to address those.
MacArthur: How important are alternative proteins?
Ray: Traceability is key to all of that, to be able to see where
your protein came from, who produced it, and how it made
It’s only so much you
its way to your table. can get a consumer
Ray: Absolutely important. The math is you have population
growth, and then on top of that you have more people eating MacArthur: Is that a blockchain solution? to pay up on the basis
more protein. So, when you look at it through that lens, it’s
not either, or; you need all of it and that's when alternate Ray: Blockchain is one solution, but we don’t know how it’s
of mission if it’s a
protein is important. We were early investors in Beyond going to play out. You don’t even need a blockchain solution consumer staple, and
as long as you have a proper form of record-keeping that
Meat way back when. We invested in cell-cultured meat, we
invested in mushroom-based, we look at all forms of protein. goes from source to table. There’s a lot of paper involved, you have to pay a
The question that we have to ask not just us, but the whole
industry, is how do you separate the mission versus the
and the more we can digitize it, the more information can
flow and the more you can trace it. That’s key. We had an
premium for it.”
business models? investment in a company called FoodLogiQ, which we
recently sold, that was all about traceability to be able to
MacArthur: How are you understanding consumer track where it came from and connecting the dots.
interest in conventional versus alternative proteins?
Kate MacArthur is managing editor of What the Future.
Ray: Consumers care about three things: price, taste and
personal health. So you have to be able to address those.

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Appendix

How science can pull more value

from existing crops
Katy Galle
Senior vice president, research, development and sustainability, Ocean Spray

As the head of research, Christopher Good: Ocean Spray is a co-op. How harvesting, and that spurred some work with their
development and sustainability does that impact your perspective on innovation? innovation team. We have an extensive ingredients
at Ocean Spray, Katy Galle is division, where we sell ingredients for a variety of
paying close attention to what Katy Galle: When you have a specialty crop like applications outside our products — like using cranberry
people want from their food. cranberries, farmers develop a lot of their equipment. seeds as sprinkles, or as a healthy way to bring color
Once, a snack was just a Some use a mechanical rake for dry harvesting. to food.
snack. Now, Americans expect Others do wet harvesting: They flood a bog, then they
health benefits, sustainability use tractors to knock the berries off the vines so We also regularly put products out in test markets. The
and more from each bite. they float in the water, then they use a boom to circle key unlock for alternative proteins and new ingredients
But while synthetic biology the cranberries. Our farmers are the real innovators. is delivering value and great taste to consumers.
can bring these benefits, many They’ve borrowed technologies from other industries The challenge, though, is how to commercialize that
Americans distrust GMOs. and adapted them to cranberry farming — or they’ve on a larger scale at an affordable price.
Galle believes that traditional created their own tools where they didn't exist before.
horticulture and ingredient- Good: Innovation can bring various benefits —
driven innovation can deliver Good: You recently partnered with a sea kelp-based health, cost, sustainability — but which are most
the healthier, more affordable company. What are the most exciting opportunities important for the people buying your products?
and tastier options that you see with alternative proteins and ingredients?
people crave. Galle: All of those play a really important role. You may
Galle: We partnered with Atlantic Sea Farms, a New have heard about our partnership with Amai Proteins on
England-based company. It started with us seeing if new sweetener technology, for example. At the end of
there were any best practices we could share on the day, it's all about delivering great taste, along with
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the nutrients that consumers are looking for. That’s a

balancing act, right? Unfortunately, there is no magic
research to see if we can convert that into an even more
valuable use in the future. We have a lot of fun exploring
“It’s all about
answer. But I’m really looking for those synergistic formula every opportunity possible. delivering great taste,
blends, whether it's a blend of nutrients or other ingredients
that can have functionality while also delivering great taste. Good: Climate change could have unpredictable effects along with the
It's an important role of R&D to vet these technologies, but
to also stick with them as they scale and evolve.
on the food industry at large. What role does innovation
and technology play in planning for the future?
nutrients that
consumers are
Good: Our polling has found that many Americans have Galle: We're actually doing work right now with Yale
mixed feelings about GMOs. What signals are you University to explore carbon sequestration at the farm level, looking for. That’s a
watching for on this front? to really understand the carbon footprint not just of the
cranberry bog, but also the surrounding land. For every
balancing act, right?”
Galle: What we are seeing from consumers is the ask for a acre of bog, there’s about 5.5 acres of supporting land.
deeper connection to, and understanding of, the foods they That supports biodiversity at each of our farms.
eat. They are choosy about the brands they purchase, and
that includes the ingredients used. Our farmers have also partnered with universities on
the cranberry itself, looking at quality, yield, or mitigating
Good: With Craisins, you turned discarded proteins into rot effects — all things affected by climate change.
a snack. What lessons do you see for the future about Cultivating more robust, varieties can help with that.
reuse and recycling? From an R&D lens, it’s about how can we help farmers
understand that biodiversity and share those best
Galle: We actually just did an analysis which found that we practices across our regions.
utilize 95% of the fruit. Like Craisins — originally those hulls
were thrown away, but now we repurpose that skin. We also Christopher Good is a staff writer for What the Future.
leverage some of the press cake that comes from pressing
out the juice, which has naturally occurring pectin. And the
last 2.5% of insoluble fiber, we sell for pet feed. We’re doing

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How farm tech is changing

how we’ll feed America
Seth Crawford
Senior vice president and general manager of precision ag and digital, AGCO

Matt Carmichael: How do you see the tension with Carmichael: How is technology making farming
Think Teslas are high-tech?
big farms and smaller farms playing out? more sustainable?
You should see the cabin of
today’s combines and tractors. Seth Crawford: I think big farming gets a bad name. Crawford: We've been able to show in our field trials that
Farming technology often leads The reality is, the extreme majority of farms today are by precisely placing the seed and the fertilizer and
the way for more consumer family farms. They're just bigger family farms than managing the timing of the fertilizer, we can maintain the
uses. Where is farm tech they've been before. Yet, the overall quality and the same yield and reduce the fertilizer by 50%. You’re not
today, and how is it changing consistency of our food supply is better than ever with only reducing the cost for the farmer; it also greatly helps
the way we feed America? less variability and greater stability. That’s exciting from an environmental standpoint.
Seth Crawford from equipment because as we have the growing world and improving
manufacturer AGCO gives us diets, that’s going be ever more important. Carmichael: Will climate change force more
the lay of the land. regulation?
Carmichael: Farm equipment is expensive and can
take years to pay off. Will smaller famers be able to Crawford: We’re going to see a regulatory environment
keep up? where farmers have to document operations, and that’s
going to require certain technology, because it's proving
Crawford: We have retrofit products that we put on to be much more sustainable. We view our role as
equipment. We make it scalable so they can step up in enabling the farmer to do that in an economically
technology year-by-year, even if they have smaller units. feasible and reliable way so they can continue their
I think the farmers that want to be a small farmer and livelihood without being burdened.
operate with the latest technology can do that.
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Carmichael: How is technology changing the

experience of farming?
and the edge processing capability to process the data
and take action in the moment without ever connecting to
“A lot of times people
the cloud or going offboard in any manner. We do that think the tech is
Crawford: We're seeing farmers go much later in life today, but I think as we get to more autonomous operations,
operating at a very, very high level and they love it. we will need better connectivity because without that, just for the young
They would never let you take that technology away.
It’s somewhat counterintuitive. A lot of times people think
we can’t just call in a second set of eyes to look at an issue
the equipment has run into. We’re going to be stuck.
ones in the industry.
the tech is just for the young ones in the industry. And that’s going to get frustrating for everyone. Absolutely not. I know
Absolutely not. I know plenty of 80-year-old farmers that
are fully decked out with their technology. Carmichael: Will we see more smaller equipment? plenty of 80-year-old
Carmichael: There’s ongoing debate if cars will ever be Crawford: I first heard this debate close to 20 years ago
farmers that are
fully autonomous. Will farm equipment get there? about continuing to invest in larger equipment or small fully decked out with
swarms of machines. What’s happened is really a bit of
Crawford: With camera-based sensors and high-speed both. In some ways, the machines have continued to get their technology.”
connectivity you're able to reference back to have humans larger with higher horsepower, wider operating widths and
look at an obstacle rather than stop at everything and send a higher speeds. I don't know that machines can get a lot
note to the farmer to go out and check their machine. We bigger. It's very difficult today to move some of our machines
can remotely do that. That builds up our database so we can from field to field. At the other end of the spectrum, with
program our models so that we can overcome those issues. electrification and advanced sensors coming, we've worked
I wouldn't say that we'll never get there. We've made the with companies that are sending out small bots to scout
commitment that we’re going to be there across the full crop fields, looking for pests on the underside of the crop canopy.
cycle by 2030. We're well on our way. They can get into fields much later in the season with some
of our large equipment.
Carmichael: How much of an issue will connectivity be?
Matt Carmichael is editor of What the Future and head of
Crawford: Very few farmers have perfect connections across the Ipsos Trends & Foresight Lab.
every acre in their operations. We have to have the sensors

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How this farmer is planning

for an uncertain future
Dale Hanson
Farmer

It would be remiss to talk about Matt Carmichael: What has changed recently Carmichael: How is technology shaping farming?
the future of farming and not about farming?
talk to a farmer. Dale Hanson Hanson: We can steer our tractors without [manually]
knows full well the challenges Dale Hanson: For our area, the biggest thing we've steering our tractors. All our equipment, whether it's an
facing the industry that has seen is that people are realizing just how important aerator or a sprayer, has section controls so it's mapping
supported his family for the land is. A lot of foreign investors are coming while we're doing it, so nothing gets oversprayed.
generations. Some challenges in that have deep pockets and are willing Unfortunately, all this stuff comes out of costs, but it will
are local and specific to his to buy land. That’s been really driving up the pay for itself in time.
region of Montana; some aren’t. land prices.
He feels the effects of Carmichael: What are some of the day-to-day effects
globalization personally, but Carmichael: What kind of impacts does of automatic steering or optimizing spraying?
he’s also fortunate not to be that have?
affected by some of the key Hanson: It's amazing how tiring it is to hold the steering
challenges. Hanson is hopeful Hanson: With farming you're land-rich and cash-poor. wheel of a tractor after a 15-, 16-, 18-hour day. With a
about his own farm, although he If somebody's getting ready to retire, they probably 350- to 400-acre field you have like 80 passes on it at
sees clouds around farming’s don't have a lot of money saved, but they have a lot 4.5 mph. We all get a little bit of carpal tunnel
future in general. of value in their land. They only have one opportunity [syndrome]. [With automatic steering] now I push a
to sell it. They’re going to try to get the top dollar. button and go. I can watch my implement, pay attention
And unfortunately, it’s not going to come from the more and look for rocks. If you run a rock through the
neighbor down the road or the daughter or the combine, those parts are expensive and it [costs]
beginning farmer. It’s investors. thousands of dollars in downtime.
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Carmichael: Will tractors get fully autonomous? Hanson: Investors are getting in on irrigated ground. These
people are controlling this irrigated land and, in essence,
“These people are
Hanson: Twenty years ago, I could never fathom that we’d they control the water. Water is such a precious commodity; controlling this
have autosteer, but by the same token, I can’t quite think when you control the water, you control the outlook of the
how tractors are going to be running themselves on our area. My dad, well, all the old-timers say, “Whiskey’s for irrigated land and,
terrain, with hills and washouts and wet spots. I imagine that
[an autosteer tractor] would get in trouble.
drinking, water’s for fighting.” It has caused a lot of
heartaches between neighbors because somebody used too
in essence, they
much water or stole the water. That's happened. During the control the water.
Carmichael: Is labor an issue?
Water is such a
night, people open gates or shut gates or put dams in and
it's really not good.
Hanson: Labor is hard to find. If it wasn't for my family, my
wife and I'd be screwed because you just can't find labor.
precious commodity;
Carmichael: What’s giving you hope?
Everybody’s getting so far removed from agriculture that when you control
nobody really understands it. You can't just come on the Hanson: For my operation, it’s the next generation. My
farm and go to work, just like I couldn't go to your job and go [three adult daughters] want to be part of it. That’s rewarding the water, you control
to work. You need to know the ins and outs. to me. Farmers are getting a little bit of recognition. And
we're starting to see this circle going through these younger
the outlook of
Carmichael: How does that tie in with the investors kids that are now a little older and having kids in school. the area.”
buying farmland? Who farms it? They realize these small towns aren't so bad. You don't
need to have constant entertainment in life. If we have a
Hanson: There's a small group of farmers that’s OK with good, stable school and a good grocery store and find a
farming land for investors. They're farming because they home, that's what we need.
cannot get the finances to buy it, and they just want to farm
the land. But these investors aren't in it to make money. Matt Carmichael is editor of What the Future and head of
They just want to be able to control the land. the Ipsos Trends & Foresight Lab.

Carmichael: Why is that?

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Signals
What we’re reading today that has us thinking about tomorrow

The vertical farming bubble is finally popping via Fast Company. Controlled Factory or farm? Oregon may alter land use for chipmakers via AP. Lawmakers
indoor farming has been vaunted as a climate change solution. But 20 years and in Oregon are considering a bill to allow the governor to expand long-protected
more than a billion dollars of venture capital later, most companies are failing. growth boundaries for farms in a quest to lure chip companies to build factories.

FDA clears California company’s lab-grown chicken as safe to eat via the Wall Ipsos Global Trends via Ipsos. Despite record climate-related disasters, there is
Street Journal. Cultivated chicken by Good Meat Inc. has been approved by the rampant debate about who is responsible for climate change and how to address it.
FDA as safe to eat. It is just the second company to clear this regulatory hurdle.
Extreme problems from extreme weather via Ipsos. In five charts, Ipsos unpacks
The race against time to breed a wheat to survive the climate crisis via The how the public sees extreme weather.
Guardian. Across the globe, researchers are rushing to breed heat-resistant and
Embedding ESG in experience via Ipsos. How organizations can create value,
drought-tolerant wheat. Will the public trust these genetically modified varieties?
drive stronger relationships and customer behavior by embedding ESG
New Zealand plans to tax agricultural emissions, in world-first plan via The commitments into the customer experience.
Washington Post. With a new tax on methane emissions, New Zealand aims to
Making a plant-based future: An idea whose time has come via Ipsos. This
mitigate the environmental impact of livestock.
report looks at barriers that stop people from embracing a truly sustainable
Seaweed is having its moment in the sun via The New York Times. From haute relationship with food.
cuisine to bioplastics, many hope seaweed will be the new wonder material.
Americans don’t have a clear idea of which of their actions have the strongest
As seas rise, Bangladesh farmers revive floating farms via Reuters. Amid rising impact on climate change via Ipsos. This New York Times/Ipsos poll finds that
seas and monsoons, Bangladeshi farmers are using traditional floating farms. except for recycling, actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are polarizing for
the public.

Scanning for signals is a type of research that is foundational to foresight work. These signals were collected
by the staff of What the Future and the Ipsos Trends Network.

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What the Future

Contributors Editor
Matt Carmichael

Managing editor
Kate MacArthur
Manuel Garcia-Garcia, Ph.D, is global lead of Trevor Sudano is a senior engagement manager
Neuroscience at Ipsos. His work has disrupted with Ipsos Strategy3, Ipsos’ marketing strategy Staff writer
market research on mobile ad effectiveness, consultancy, where he leads client engagements in Christopher Good
cross-platform advertising, multicultural foresight, trends and innovation. Trevor’s expertise
marketing and consumers’ emotional response is at the intersection of creativity and rigor with a Art director
and decision-making. Manuel also co-leads focus on simplifying the complex to help clients Stephen Geary
Ipsos’ anti-racism employee resource group. anticipate and shape the future through foresight.
manuel.garcia-garcia@ipsos.com trevor.sudano@ipsos.com Graphics
Avalon Leonetti, Kahren Kim

Newsletter
Ben Meyerson
Christo VanDerWalt is a vice president within Sophie Washington is a senior consultant at Ipsos
Ipsos’ U.S. Innovation practice. With more than Strategy3, where she looks for creative solutions to Copy editing
15 years of market research expertise across innovate brands from an evolving human Zoe Galland, Betsy Edgerton
Africa, the Middle East and the U.S., Christo perspective. She is passionate about exploring
brings a wealth of diverse expertise and a proven alternative futures, considering how visionary and Web
track record of unlocking growth for some of the interdisciplinary thinking spur change and lead to James De Los Santos,
world’s largest organizations. real societal impact across sectors. Matthew Alward
christo.vanderwalt@ipsos.com sophie.washington@ipsos.com
Survey design
Mallory Newall, Johnny Sawyer

Survey execution
Melissa Kordik, Rachel Franz,
Katy Ungs

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