Project Management

3
PowerPoint presentation to accompany
Heizer, Render, Munson
Operations Management, Twelfth Edition, Global Edition
Principles of Operations Management, Tenth Edition, Global Edition

PowerPoint slides by Jeff Heyl

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3-1

 Outline
► Global Company Profile:
Bechtel Group

► The Importance of Project

Management
► Project Planning

► Project Scheduling

► Project Controlling

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3-2

 Outline - Continued
► Project Management Techniques:
PERT and CPM
► Determining the Project Schedule

► Variability in Activity Times

► Cost-Time Trade-offs and Project

Crashing

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3-3

 Outline - Continued
► A Critique of PERT and CPM
► Using Microsoft Project to Manage
Projects

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3-4

 Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter you
should be able to:
3.1 Use a Gantt chart for scheduling
3.2 Draw AOA and AON networks
3.3 Complete forward and backward
passes for a project
3.4 Determine a critical path

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3-5

 Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter you
should be able to:
3.5 Calculate the variance of
activity times
3.6 Crash a project

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3-6

 Bechtel Projects

► Constructing 30 high-security data centers worldwide

for Equinix, Inc. ($1.2 billion)
► Building a rail line between London and the Channel
Tunnel ($4.6 billion)
► Developing an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea
region to Russia ($850 million)
► Expanding the Dubai Airport in the UAE ($600
million), and the Miami Airport in Florida ($2 billion)

Copyright
© 2014©Pearson
2017 Pearson
Education,
Education,
Inc. Ltd. 3-7
 Bechtel Projects

► Building liquid natural gas plants in Yemen ($2 billion)

and in Trinidad, West Indies ($1 billion)
► Building a new subway for Athens, Greece ($2.6
billion)
► Constructing a natural gas pipeline in Thailand ($700
million)
► Building 30 plants for iMotors.com, a company that
sells refurbished autos online ($300 million)
► Building a highway to link the north and south of
Croatia ($303 million)

Copyright
© 2014©Pearson
2017 Pearson
Education,
Education,
Inc. Ltd. 3-8
 Project Management
► A project is a temporary endeavor designed to
produce a unique product, service or result with a
defined beginning and end (usually time-
constrained, and often constrained by funding or
staffing) undertaken to meet unique goals and
objectives (Building a rail line, Constructing a natural
gas pipeline, Building a highway ….)
► Project management is the practice of initiating,
planning, executing, controlling, and closing the work
of a team to achieve specific goals and meet specific
success criteria at the specified time.
► The primary challenge of project management is to
achieve all of the project goals within the given
constraints.
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3-9
 Examples of Projects
► Building Construction

► Research Project
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 10
 Management of Projects
1. Planning - goal setting, defining the
project, team organization
2. Scheduling - relate people, money,
and supplies to specific activities and
activities to each other
3. Controlling - monitor resources, costs,
quality, and budgets; revise plans and
shift resources to meet time and cost
demands
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 11
 Project Management Activities
► Planning
► Objectives ► Scheduling
► Resources ► Project
activities
► Work break-
down structure ► Start and end
times
► Organization
► Network

► Controlling
► Monitor, compare, revise, action
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 12
 Project Planning,
Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1

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 Project Planning,
Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1

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 Project Planning,
Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1

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 Project Planning,
Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1

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 Project Planning
► Establishing objectives
► Defining project
► Creating work
breakdown structure
► Determining
resources
► Forming organization

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 17

 Project Organization
► Often temporary structure
► Uses specialists from entire company
► Headed by project manager
► Coordinates activities
► Monitors schedule
and costs

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 18

 A Sample Project
Organization
President

Human Quality
Resources Marketing Finance Design Production
Mgt

Project Project Mechanical Test

No. 1 Technician
Manager Engineer Engineer

Project Project Electrical Computer

Technician
No. 2 Manager Engineer Engineer

Figure 3.2

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 19

 The Role of
the Project Manager
Highly visible
Responsible for making sure that:
1) All necessary activities are finished in order
and on time
2) The project comes in within budget
3) The project meets quality goals
4) The people assigned to the project receive
motivation, direction, and information
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 20
 The Role of
the Project Manager
Highly visible Project managers should be:
Responsible for making sure that:
► Good coaches
1) All necessary activities
► Goodare finished in order
communicators
and on time ► Able to organize activities

2) The project comes from a variety

in within of disciplines
budget
3) The project meets quality goals
4) The people assigned to the project receive
motivation, direction, and information
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 21
 Work Breakdown Structure

Level
1. Project
2. Major tasks in the project
3. Subtasks in the major tasks
4. Activities (or “work packages”)
to be completed

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 22

 Work Breakdown Structure
Develop Windows 8
Level 1 1.0
Operating System

Software Cost Management System

Level 2 1.1 1.2 1.3
Design Plan Testing

Develop Design Cost Module

Level 3 1.1.1 1.2.1 1.3.1
GUIs Tracking Reports Testing

Ensure Compatibility Develop Defect

with Earlier Versions 1.1.2 Cost/Schedule 1.2.2 Testing 1.3.2
Interface

Compatible with
Level 4 1.1.2.1
Windows 7
(Work packages) A work breakdown structure defines the
Compatible with project by dividing it into its major
1.1.2.2
Windows Vista subcomponents (or tasks), which are then
subdivided into more detailed components,
Compatible with
1.1.2.3 and finally into a set of activities and their
Windows XP
related costs.
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 23
 Work Breakdown Structure

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 24

 Purposes of Project
Scheduling
1. Shows the relationship of each activity to
others and to the whole project
2. Identifies the precedence relationships
among activities
3. Encourages the setting of realistic time and
cost estimates for each activity
4. Helps make better use of people, money,
and material resources by identifying critical
bottlenecks in the project
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 25
 Project Management
Techniques

► Gantt chart
► Critical Path Method (CPM)

► Program Evaluation and Review

Technique (PERT)

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 26

 A Simple Gantt Chart

Time
J F M A M J J A S

Design
Prototype
Test
Revise
Production

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 Project Controlling
► Close monitoring of
resources, costs,
quality, budgets
► Feedback enables
revising the project plan
and shift resources
► Computerized tools
produce extensive
reports

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 28

 Project Management Software

► There are several popular

packages for managing projects
► Oracle Primavera
► MindView
► HP Project
► Fast Track
► Microsoft Project

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 29

 Gantt Chart
▶Below an Example of a project activities
and predecessors list:

Activity Immediate Duration

predecessors

A - 4
B - 5
C A 2
D B 3
E C,D 6

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 Gantt Chart

4 5 6 8 10 14 15

Activity Immediate Duration

A
predecessors

A - 4
B
B - 5
C A 2
C
D B 3
D
E C,D 6

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 Gantt Chart

4 5 6 8 10 14 15

Activity Immediate Duration

A
predecessors

A - 4
B
B - 5
C A 2
C
D B 3
D
E C,D 6

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 32

 Example
▶ Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 33

 Example
Table
3.2 Time Estimates for Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing
IMMEDIATE
PREDECES
ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION SORS TIME (WEEKS)
A Build internal components — 2

B Modify roof and floor — 3

C Construct collection stack A 2

D Pour concrete and install frame A, B 4

E Build high-temperature burner C 4

F Install pollution control system C 3

G Install air pollution device D, E 5

H Inspect and test F, G 2

Total time (weeks) 25

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 34

 PERT and CPM
► Network techniques
► Developed in 1950s
► CPM by DuPont for chemical plants (1957)
► PERT by Booz, Allen & Hamilton with the U.S.
Navy, for Polaris missile (1958)
► Consider precedence relationships and
interdependencies
► Each uses a different estimate of activity
times

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 35

 Six Steps PERT and CPM
1. Define the project and prepare the
work breakdown structure
2. Develop relationships among the
activities – decide which activities must
precede and which must follow others
3. Draw the network connecting all of the
activities

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 36

 Six Steps PERT and CPM
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to
each activity
5. Compute the longest time path through
the network – this is called the critical
path
6. Use the network to help plan,
schedule, monitor, and control the
project

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 37

 Questions PERT and CPM
Can Answer
1. When will the entire project be completed?
2. What are the critical activities or tasks in the
project?
3. Which are the noncritical activities?
4. What is the probability the project will be
completed by a specific date?

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 38

 Questions PERT and CPM
Can Answer
5. Is the project on schedule, behind schedule,
or ahead of schedule?
6. Is the money spent equal to, less than, or
greater than the budget?
7. Are there enough resources available to
finish the project on time?
8. If the project must be finished in a shorter
time, what is the way to accomplish this at
least cost?
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 39
 A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)
A comes before
(a) A B C B, which comes
before C A B C
A A
A and B must both
(b) C be completed
before C can start C
B B
B
B and C cannot
(c) A begin until A is B
completed A
C C
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 40
 A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

C and D cannot
A C begin until both A C
(d) A and B are
completed
B D B D

C cannot begin until

both A and B are
A C completed A C
(e) D cannot begin until Dummy activity
B is completed
B D A dummy activity is
introduced in AOA
B D
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 41
 A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

B and C cannot
begin until A is
completed
A B D D cannot begin A B D
until both B and C
(f) are completed Dummy
A dummy activity activity
C
C
is again
introduced in AOA

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 42

 AON and AOA Example
Table 3.1 Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing’s Activities and Predecessors
IMMEDIATE
ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION PREDECESSORS
A Build internal components —
B Modify roof and floor —
C Construct collection stack A
D Pour concrete and install frame A, B
E Build high-temperature burner C
F Install pollution control system C
G Install air pollution device D, E
H Inspect and test F, G

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 43

 AON Network for
Milwaukee Paper

Activity A
A
(Build Internal Components)

Start

Activity B
Start B (Modify Roof and Floor)
Activity
Figure 3.5

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 AON Network for
Milwaukee Paper
Activity A Precedes Activity C

A C

Start

B D

Activities A and B Figure 3.6

Precede Activity D
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 45
 AON Network for
Milwaukee Paper

F
A C

E
Start H

B D G

Arrows Show Precedence Figure 3.7

Relationships
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 46
 AOA Network for
Milwaukee Paper
C
2 4
(Construct
Stack)

H
1 Dummy 6 7
Activity (Inspect/
Test)

D
3 5
(Pour Figure 3.8
Concrete/
Install Frame)
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 47
 Exercise
Draw the AON and AOA network

ACTIVITY Immediate predecessor(s) TIME (WEEKS)

A - 18
B A 8
C B 6
D A 9
E C,D 5
F E 4
G D 10
H E 11
I G,H 3

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 48

 Exercise ACTIVITY
Immediate
predecessor(s)
A -
B A
C B
D A
E C,D
F E
G D
H E
I G,H

Start A B C E F End

D H

G
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 49
 Exercise

A B C E F

D I
H

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 Exercise
ACTIVITY Immediate Time
Draw the AON and AOA network
predecessor(s) (min)
A B 3
B -- 8
C -- 6
D B 12
E F 20
F B,C 4
G A 7
H D, F, G 4
I D, F, G 1
J
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd.
I 2 3 - 51
 Exercise
Draw the AON and AOA network

B A G I J

Start
D End
H

C F E

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 52

 Exercise
Draw the AON and AOA network

D H

B
Dummy

Start End
F E
C

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 53

 Determining the Project Schedule

Perform a Critical Path Analysis

► The critical path is the longest path
through the network
► The critical path is the shortest time in
which the project can be completed
► Any delay in critical path activities delays
the project
► Critical path activities have no slack time

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 54

 Determining the Project Schedule

Table 3.2 Time Estimates for Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing

ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION TIME (WEEKS)
A Build internal components 2
B Modify roof and floor 3
C Construct collection stack 2
D Pour concrete and install frame 4
E Build high-temperature burner 4
F Install pollution control system 3
G Install air pollution device 5
H Inspect and test 2
Total time (weeks) 25

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 55

 Determining the Project Schedule
Perform a Critical Path Analysis
Earliest start (ES) = earliest time at which an activity can
start, assuming all predecessors have
been completed
Earliest finish (EF) = earliest time at which an activity can be
finished
Latest start (LS) = latest time at which an activity can start
so as to not delay the completion time of
the entire project
Latest finish (LF) = latest time by which an activity has to be
finished so as to not delay the
completion time of the entire project

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 56

 Determining the Project Schedule

Activity Format Figure 3.9

Activity Name
or Symbol
A Earliest
Earliest ES EF Finish
Start

Latest LS LF Latest
Start 2 Finish

Activity Duration
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 57
 Forward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forward

Earliest Start Time Rule:

► If an activity has only a single immediate

predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the
predecessor
► If an activity has multiple immediate
predecessors, its ES is the maximum of all
the EF values of its predecessors

ES = Max {EF of all immediate predecessors}

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 58

 Forward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forward

Earliest Finish Time Rule:

► The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity is

the sum of its earliest start time (ES) and its
activity time

EF = ES + Activity time

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 59

 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper

ES EF = ES + Activity time
Start
0 0

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 60

 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5
Figure 3.10
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 61
 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
EF of A =
ES ES of A + 2
of A
A
Start 0 2
0 0

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 62

 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A
0 2

2 EF of B =
ES ES of B + 3
0
Start
0 of B
B
0 0 3

3
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 63
 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2

Start
0 0

B
0 3

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 64

 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2

Start
0 0
= Max (2, 3) D
0
3 7
B
0 3

3
4
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 65
 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2

Start
0 0

B D
0 3 3 7

3 4

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 66

 ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5
Figure 3.10
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 67
 Backward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwards
Latest Finish Time Rule:

► If an activity is an immediate predecessor for

just a single activity, its LF equals the LS of the
activity that immediately follows it
► If an activity is an immediate predecessor to
more than one activity, its LF is the minimum
of all LS values of all activities that
immediately follow it
LF = Min {LS of all immediate following activities}
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 68
 Backward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwards
Latest Start Time Rule:

► The latest start time (LS) of an activity is the

difference of its latest finish time (LF) and its
activity time

LS = LF – Activity time

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 69

 LS/LF Times for
0
Milwaukee Paper 6
0
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 0 3 0
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

1 1 0
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 70
 LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
13 15
0 4 2

B D – Activity timeG
LS = LF
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5 LF = EF
of Project
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 71
 LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 Min(LS
8 of 13 15
LF =
following activity) 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 72

 LS/LF Times for
LF = Min(4, 10)
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
8 13
3 4 5

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 73

 LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 74

 Computing Slack Time
After computing the ES, EF, LS, and LF times for
all activities, compute the slack or free time for
each activity

► Slack is the length of time an activity can be

delayed without delaying the entire project

Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 75

 Computing Slack Time
TABLE 3.3 Milwaukee Paper’s Schedule and Slack Times
EARLIEST EARLIEST LATEST LATEST ON
START FINISH START FINISH SLACK CRITICAL
ACTIVITY ES EF LS LF LS – ES PATH
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 76

 Activities with zero slack are on the critical path. It:
Computing Slack Time
► Starts at the first activity in the project

► Terminates at the last activity in the project

► Includes only critical activities

TABLE 3.3 Milwaukee Paper’s Schedule and Slack Times
EARLIEST EARLIEST LATEST LATEST ON
START FINISH START FINISH SLACK CRITICAL
ACTIVITY ES EF LS LF LS – ES PATH
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 77

 Critical Path for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 78

 ES – EF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 79

 LS – LF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 80

 Exercise 3.7
Draw the AON network
Identify the critical path
ACTIVITY Immediate predecessor(s) TIME (WEEKS)
A - 4
B - 35
C - 5
D A 9
E B 3
F C,E 1
G D 2
H F 3
I G,H 15
J G 1

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 81

 Exercise 3.7
0 0
B E
0 35 35 38

0 35 35 38
35 3

33 0 0
Start H I
0
C F
0 0 0 5 38 39 39 42 42 57

0 0 33 38 38 39 39 42 42 57
0 5 1 3 15
End
57 57
27 27 27 57 57
0
A D G
0 4 4 13 J
13 15 15 16
27 31 31 40 40 42 56 57
4 9 2 1 41

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 82

 Exercise 3.7
B E
0 35 35 38

0 35 35 38
35 3

Start C F H I
0 0 0 5 38 39 39 42 42 57

0 0 33 38 38 39 39 42 42 57
0 5 1 3 15
End
57 57

57 57
0
A D G
0 4 4 13 J
13 15 15 16
27 31 31 40 40 42 56 57
4 9 2 1

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 83

 Variability in Activity Times

► CPM assumes we know a fixed time

estimate for each activity and there is
no variability in activity times
► PERT uses a probability distribution for
activity times to allow for variability

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 84

 Variability in Activity Times

► Three time estimates are required

► Optimistic time (a) – if everything goes
according to plan
► Pessimistic time (b) – assuming very
unfavorable conditions
► Most likely time (m) – most realistic
estimate

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 85

 Variability in Activity Times
Estimate follows beta distribution
Expected activity time:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Variance of activity completion times:
v = [(b – a)/6]2

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 86

 Variability in Activity Times
Estimate follows beta distribution
Figure 3.11
Expected activity time:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Probability of 1t in =
100 (a + 4m + b)/6
of < a occurring
Probability

v = [(b − a)/6]2Probability of 1 in 100

Variance of activity completion of >times:
b occurring

v = [(b – a)/6]2 Activity

Time

Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

Time (a) Time (m) Time (b)

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 87

 Computing Variance
TABLE 3.4 Time Estimates (in weeks) for Milwaukee Paper's Project

MOST
OPTIMISTIC LIKELY PESSIMISTIC EXPECTED TIME VARIANCE
ACTIVITY a m b t = (a + 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2
A 1 2 3

B 2 3 4

C 1 2 3

D 2 4 6

E 1 4 7

F 1 2 9

G 3 4 11

H 1 2 3

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 88

 Computing Variance
TABLE 3.4 Time Estimates (in weeks) for Milwaukee Paper's Project

MOST
OPTIMISTIC LIKELY PESSIMISTIC EXPECTED TIME VARIANCE
ACTIVITY a m b t = (a + 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2
A 1 2 3 2 .11

B 2 3 4 3 .11

C 1 2 3 2 .11

D 2 4 6 4 .44

E 1 4 7 4 1.00

F 1 2 9 3 1.78

G 3 4 11 5 1.78

H 1 2 3 2 .11

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 89

 Critical Path
EXPECTED TIME
(duration)

A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5
EXPECTED
COMPLETION
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. TIME (15 weeks)
3 - 90
 Probability of Project
Completion
Project variance is computed by
summing the variances of critical
activities
sp2 = Project variance
= (variances of activities
on critical path)

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 Probability of Project
Completion
Project variance is computed by
summing the variances of critical
Project variance
activities
sp2 = .11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11

Project standard deviation

sp = Project variance
= 3.11 = 1.76 weeks
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 Probability of Project
Completion
PERT makes two more assumptions:

► Total project completion times follow a

normal probability distribution
► Activity times are statistically independent

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 Probability of Project
Completion
Figure 3.12
Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks

16 − 15
𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 16 = 𝑃 𝑍 ≤ = 𝑃 𝑍 ≤ 0.57
1.76
= 71.57%

15 Weeks 16 Weeks

(Expected Completion Time)

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 Probability of Project
Completion
Figure 3.12
Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks

15 Weeks
(Expected Completion Time)

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 Probability of Project
Completion
What is the probability this project can
be completed on or before the 16 week
deadline?

Z = Due – Expected date /sp

date of completion
= (16 weeks – 15 weeks)/1.76

= 0.57 Where Z is the number of

standard deviations the due
date or target date lies from the
mean or expected date
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 96
 Probability of Project
Completion
From Appendix I
What is the probability
.00 .01 this project
.07 can
.08
be completed on or before the
.1 .50000 .50399
16 week
.52790 .53188
deadline?.2 .53983 .54380 .56749 .57142

.5 = due .69497
Z.69146 − expected.71566
date /s
.71904
p
date of completion
.6 .72575 .72907 .74857 .75175
= (16 wks − 15 wks)/1.76

= 0.57 Where Z is the number of

standard deviations the due
date or target date lies from the
mean or expected date
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 97
 Probability of Project
Completion
0.57 Standard deviations
Probability
(T ≤ 16 weeks)
is 71.57%

15 16 Time
Weeks Weeks
Figure 3.13

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 Determining Project
Completion Time
Probability
of 0.99

Probability
of 0.01

2.33 Standard Z
From Appendix I deviations
0 2.33
Figure 3.14

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 Variability of Completion Time
for Noncritical Paths
► Variability of times for activities on
noncritical paths must be considered
when finding the probability of
finishing in a specified time
► Variation in noncritical activity may
cause change in critical path

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 100

 What Project Management Has
Provided So Far
1. The project’s expected completion time is
15 weeks
2. There is a 71.57% chance the equipment
will be in place by the 16 week deadline
3. Five activities (A, C, E, G, and H) are on
the critical path
4. Three activities (B, D, F) are not on the
critical path and have slack time
5. A detailed schedule is available
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 101
 Exercise
OPTIMISTIC MOST LIKELY PESSIMISTIC
ACTIVITY Predecessor(s) a m b
A - 4 8 10
B A 2 8 24
C A 8 12 16
D A 4 6 10
E B 1 2 3
F E,C 6 8 20
G E,C 2 3 4
H F 2 2 2
I F 6 6 6
J D, G, H 4 6 12
K I, J 2 2 3
What is the expected time of the activities?
What is the variance of the activities?
Determine the critical path, what is the estimate time and the variance of the critical path
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 102
What is the probability of completion of the project before week 36?
 Exercise
EXPECTED
OPTIMISTI MOST PESSIMISTI TIME
Predecessor(s C LIKELY C t = (a + 4m + VARIANCE
ACTIVITY ) a m b b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2
A - 4 8 10 7,7 1
B A 2 8 24 9,7 13,4
C A 8 12 16 12,0 1,78
D A 4 6 10 6,3 1
E B 1 2 3 2,0 0,11
F E,C 6 8 20 9,7 5,44
G E,C 2 3 4 3,0 0,11
H F 2 2 2 2,0 0
I F 6 6 6 6,0 0
J D, G, H 4 6 12 6,7 1,78
K I, J 2 2 3 2,2 0,03

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 Exercise
End
B E G - -
0 9.7 9.7 11.7 19.7 22.7
- 0 -
- 9.7 - - 2 - - 3 -

Start A C F H J K
0 0 0 7.7 7.7 19.7 - - - - - - - -

0 0 0 - 7.7 - - 12 - - 9.7 - - 2 - - 6.7 - - 2.2 -

D I
0 6.3 - -

- 6.3 - - 6 -

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 Exercise
𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 10.03, 𝜎 = 3.20
𝐸𝑋𝑃𝐸𝐶𝑇𝐸𝐷 𝐶𝑂𝑀𝑃𝐿𝐸𝑇𝐼𝑂𝑁 𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸 = 40.3
End
B E G 40.3 40.3
7.7 17.4 17.4 19.4 19.7 22.7
40.3 0 40.3
16.7 9.7 26.4 26.4 2 28.4 28.4 3 31.4

Start A C F H J K
0 0 0 7.7 7.7 19.7 19.7 29.4 29.4 31.4 31.4 38.1 38.1 40.3

0 0 0 0 7.7 7.7 7.7 12 19.7 19.7 9.7 29.4 29.4 2 31.4 31.4 6.7 38.1 38.1 2.2 40.3

D I
7.7 14 29.4 35.4

25.1 6.3 31.4 32.1 6 38.1

36 − 40.3
𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 36 = 𝑃 𝑍 ≤ = 𝑃 𝑍 ≤ −1.34 = 0.0901 = 9%
3.20
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 105
 Exercise
(c) Critical path is A–C–F–H–J–K
(d) Time on critical path  7.67  12  9.67  2  6.67
 2.17  40.18 weeks (rounded)
(e) Variance on critical path  1  1.78  5.44  0  1.78
 0.03  10.03

36  40.18
(f) Z = = –1.32, which is about 9.6% chance
3.17
(.096 probability) of completing project before week 36.
Note that based on possible rounding in part (d)—
where time on critical path could be 40.3—the
probability can be as low as 8.7%. So a student answer
between 8.7% and 9.6% is valid.
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 106
 Cost–Time Trade-Offs and Project
Crashing
It is not uncommon to face the
following situations:
► The project is behind schedule
► The completion time has been
moved forward

Shortening the duration of the

project is called project crashing
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 Factors to Consider When
Crashing a Project
► The amount by which an activity is
crashed is, in fact, permissible
► Taken together, the shortened activity
durations will enable us to finish the
project by the due date
► The total cost of crashing is as small as
possible

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 Steps in Project Crashing
Step 1: Compute the crash cost per time
period. If crash costs are linear over
time:
Crash cost (Crash cost – Normal cost)
per period = (Normal time – Crash time)

Step 2: Using current activity times, find the

critical path and identify the critical
activities

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 109

 Steps in Project Crashing
Step 3: If there is only one critical path, then
select the activity on this critical path
that (a) can still be crashed, and (b) has
the smallest crash cost per period. If
there is more than one critical path,
then select one activity from each
critical path such that (a) each selected
activity can still be crashed, and (b) the
total crash cost of all selected activities
is the smallest. Note that the same
activity may be common to more than
one critical path.
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 110
 Steps in Project Crashing
Step 4: Update all activity times. If the desired
due date has been reached, stop. If not,
return to Step 2.

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 Crashing The Project
TABLE 3.5 Normal and Crash Data for Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing

IMMEDI TIME (WEEKS) COST ($)

ATE
PREDE CRASH COST
CESSO NORMA PER WEEK CRITICAL
ACTIVITY RS NORMAL CRASH L CRASH ($) PATH ?
A — 2 1 22,000 22,750 750

B — 3 1 30,000 34,000 2000

C A 2 1 26,000 27,000 1000

D A, B 4 3 48,000 49,000 1000

E C 4 2 56,000 58,000 1000

F C 3 2 30,000 30,500 500

G D, E 5 2 80,000 84,500 1500

H F, G 2 1 16,000 19,000 3000

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 Crashing The Project
TABLE 3.5 Normal and Crash Data for Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing

TIME (WEEKS) COST ($)

CRASH COST CRITICAL
ACTIVITY NORMAL CRASH NORMAL CRASH PER WEEK ($) PATH ?
A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750 Yes

B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000 No

C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 Yes

D 4 3 48,000 49,000 1,000 No

E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 Yes

F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 No

G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500 Yes

H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000 Yes

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 Crash and Normal Times
and Costs for Activity B
Activity
Cost
Crash

$34,000 — Crash Cost – Normal Cost

Crash Cost/Wk =
Normal Time – Crash Time
Crash $33,000 — $34,000 – $30,000
Cost =
$32,000 —
3–1
$4,000
= = $2,000/Week
$31,000 — 2 Wks

$30,000 —
Normal
Normal —
Cost
| | |
1 2 3 Time (Weeks)
Figure 3.15
Crash Time Normal Time
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 Critical Path and Slack Times
for Milwaukee Paper
Figure 3.16

A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start Slack = 0 Slack = 0 E Slack = 6 H

0 0 4 8 13 15
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D Slack = 0 G Slack = 0
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

Slack = 1 Slack = 1 Slack = 0

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 Critical Path and Slack Times
for Milwaukee Paper
A,1 C,2 F,3

Start
E,4
H,2 End

B,3 D,4 G,5

A  C  F  H = 8 weeks
B  D  G  H = 14 weeks
A  C  E  G  H = 14 weeks
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 116
 Exercise
Kimpel Products makes pizza ovens for commercial use. James​ Kimpel, CEO, is
contemplating producing smaller ovens for use in high school and college
kitchens. The activities necessary to build an experimental model and related
data are listed in the following​ table:

a) What is the project completion date?

b) Crash this project to 10 weeks at the least cost
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 117
 Exercise

Project completion time = 14 weeks

Task Time ES EF LS LF Slack
A 3 0 3 0 3 0
B 2 0 2 2 4 2
C 1 0 1 11 12 11
D 7 3 10 3 10 0
E 6 2 8 4 10 2
F 2 1 3 12 14 11
G 4 10 14 10 14 0

Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 118

 Exercise

(b) To crash to 10 weeks, we follow 2 steps:

1. Crash D by 2 weeks ($150).
2. Crash D and E by 2 weeks each ($150  $100).
Total crash cost  $400 additional

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 Advantages of PERT/CPM
1. Especially useful when scheduling and
controlling large projects
2. Straightforward concept and not
mathematically complex
3. Graphical networks help highlight
relationships among project activities
4. Critical path and slack time analyses help
pinpoint activities that need to be closely
watched

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 Advantages of PERT/CPM
5. Project documentation and graphics point
out who is responsible for various activities
6. Applicable to a wide variety of projects
7. Useful in monitoring not only schedules but
costs as well

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 Limitations of PERT/CPM
1. Project activities have to be clearly defined,
independent, and stable in their
relationships
2. Precedence relationships must be specified
and networked together
3. Time estimates tend to be subjective and
are subject to fudging by managers
4. There is an inherent danger of too much
emphasis being placed on the longest, or
critical, path

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 Using Microsoft Project

Program 3.1

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 Using Microsoft Project

Program 3.2
Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. 3 - 124
 Using Microsoft Project

Pollution Project
Percentage Completed on
Aug. 12
ACTIVITY COMPLETED
A 100
B 100
C 100
D 10
E 20
F 20
G 0
H 0 Program 3.3

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