CHAPTER 4:

PROBABILITY

1
EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES,
AND SAMPLE SPACE

 Simple and Compound Events

2
 EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES,
AND SAMPLE SPACE
Definition
An experiment is a process that, when
performed, results in one and only one of
many observations. These observations are
called that outcomes of the experiment.
The collection of all outcomes for an
experiment is called a sample space.

3
 Table 4.1 Examples of Experiments, Outcomes, and
Sample Spaces

Experiment Outcomes Sample Space

Toss a coin once Head, Tail S = {Head, Tail}
Roll a die once 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Toss a coin twice HH, HT, TH, TT S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Play lottery Win, Lose S = {Win, Lose}
Take a test Pass, Fail S = {Pass, Fail}
Select a student Male, Female S = {Male, Female}

4
 Example 4-1
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the
experiment of tossing a coin once.

5
 Figure 4.1 (a) Venn Diagram and (b) tree diagram for
one toss of a coin.

Outcomes

Head H
S

H T
Tail T

(b)
(a)

6
 Example 4-2
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the
experiment of tossing a coin twice.

7
Figure 4.2 a Venn diagram for two tosses of a coin.

S
HH HT

TH
TT

(a)

8
Figure 4.2 b Tree diagram for two tosses of coin.

Second Final
First toss
toss outcomes

HH
H

H
T HT
H TH
T

T TT
(b)
9
 Example 4-3
Suppose we randomly select two persons
from the members of a club and observe
whether the person selected each time is a
man or a woman. Write all the outcomes for
this experiment. Draw the Venn and tree
diagrams for this experiment.

10
Figure 4.3 a Venn diagram for selecting two
persons.

S
MM MW

WM WW

(a)

11
Figure 4.3 b Tree diagram for selecting two
persons.

First Second Final

selection selection outcomes

MM
M

M
W MW
M WM
W

W WW
(b)

12
 Simple and Compound Events

Definition
An event is a collection of one or more of
the outcomes of an experiment.

13
 Simple and Compound Events
cont.
Definition
An event that includes one and only one of
the (final) outcomes for an experiment is
called a simple event and is denoted by
Ei.

14
 Example 4-4
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two persons
from the members of a club and observing whether
the person selected each time is a man or a
woman. Each of the final four outcomes (MM, MW,
WM, WW) for this experiment is a simple event.
These four events can be denoted by E1, E2, E3, and
E4, respectively. Thus,

E1 = (MM ), E2 = (MW ), E3 = (WM ), and

E4 = (WW )

15
 Simple and Compound Events
Definition
A compound event is a collection of more
than one outcome for an experiment.

16
 Example 4-5
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two persons from the
members of a club and observing whether the person
selected each time is a man or a woman. Let A be the
event that at most one man is selected. Event A will occur
if either no man or one man is selected. Hence, the event
A is given by
A = {MW, WM, WW}

Because event A contains more than one outcome, it is a

compound event. The Venn diagram in Figure 4.4 gives a
graphic presentation of compound event A.

17
Figure 4.4 Venn diagram for event A.

S
MW A
MM

WM WW

18
 Example 4-6
In a group of a people, some are in favor of genetic
engineering and others are against it. Two persons are
selected at random from this group and asked whether
they are in favor of or against genetic engineering. How
many distinct outcomes are possible? Draw a Venn
diagram and a tree diagram for this experiment. List all the
outcomes included in each of the following events and
mention whether they are simple or compound events.

(a) Both persons are in favor of the genetic engineering.

(b) At most one person is against genetic engineering.
(c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering.

19
 Solution 4-6
Let
 F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering
 A = a person is against genetic engineering
 FF = both persons are in favor of genetic engineering
 FA = the first person is in favor and the second is
against
 AF = the first is against and the second is in favor
 AA = both persons are against genetic engineering

20
Figure 4.5 a Venn diagram.

FF FA

AF AA

(a)

21
Figure 4.5 b Tree diagram.

First Second Final

person person outcomes

FF
F

F
A FA
F AF
A

A AA
(b)
22
 Solution 4-6
a) Both persons are in favor of genetic
engineering = { FF }
It is a simple event.
b) At most one person is against genetic
engineering = { FF, FA, AF }
It is a compound event.
c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic
engineering = { FA, AF }
It is a compound event.

23
 CALCULATING PROBABILITY
 Two Properties of probability
 Three Conceptual Approaches to
Probability
 Classical Probability
 Relative Frequency Concept of Probability
 Subjective Probability

24
 CALCULATING PROBABLITY
Definition
Probability is a numerical measure of the
likelihood that a specific event will occur.

25
 Two Properties of Probability
 First Property of Probability
 0 ≤ P (Ei) ≤ 1
 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1

 Second Property of Probability

 ΣP (Ei) = P (E1) + P (E2) + P (E3) + … = 1

26
 Three Conceptual Approaches
to Probability
Classical Probability

Definition
Two or more outcomes (or events) that
have the same probability of occurrence
are said to be equally likely outcomes
(or events).

27
 Classical Probability
Classical Probability Rule to Find Probability

1
P( Ei ) 
Total number of outcomes for the experiment

Number of outcomes favorable to A

P( A) 
Total number of outcomes for the experiment

28
 Example 4-7
Find the probability of obtaining a head and
the probability of obtaining a tail for one
toss of a coin.

29
 Solution 4-7

1 1
P(head )    .50
Total number of outcomes 2

Similarly,
1
P( tail)   .50
2
30
 Example 4-8
Find the probability of obtaining an even
number in one roll of a die.

31
Solution 4-8

Number of outcomes included in A 3

P(head )    .50
Total number of outcomes 6

32
 Example 4-9
In a group of 500 women, 80 have played
golf at lest once. Suppose one of these 500
women is randomly selected. What is the
probability that she has played golf at least
once?

33
 Solution 4-9

80
P(selected woman has played golf at least once)   .16
500

34
 Three Conceptual Approaches
to Probability cont.
Relative Concept of Probability

Using Relative Frequency as an Approximation

of Probability
If an experiment is repeated n times and an
event A is observed f times, then, according to
the relative frequency concept of probability:
f
P ( A) 
n 35
 Example 4-10
Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars
manufactured at a certain auto factory are
found to be lemons. Assuming that the
lemons are manufactured randomly, what is
the probability that the next car
manufactured at this auto factory is a
lemon?

36
 Solution 4-10
Let n denotes the total number of cars in the
sample and f the number of lemons in n. Then,
n = 500 and f = 10
Using the relative frequency concept of
probability, we obtain
f 10
P(next car is a lemon)    .02
n 500

37
Table 4.2 Frequency and Relative Frequency
Distributions for the Sample of Cars

Car f Relative frequency

Good 490 490/500 = .98
Lemon 10 10/500 = .02
n = 500 Sum = 1.00

38
 Law of Large Numbers
Definition
Law of Large Numbers If an experiment
is repeated again and again, the probability
of an event obtained from the relative
frequency approaches the actual or
theoretical probability.

39
 Three Conceptual Approaches
to Probability
Subjective Probability

Definition
Subjective probability is the probability
assigned to an event based on subjective
judgment, experience, information and
belief.

40
 COUNTING RULE
Counting Rule to Find Total Outcomes

If an experiment consists of three steps and if

the first step can result in m outcomes, the
second step in n outcomes, and the third in k
outcomes, then
Total outcomes for the experiment = m · n · k

41
 Example 4-12
Suppose we toss a coin three times. This
experiment has three steps: the first toss, the
second toss and the third toss. Each step has two
outcomes: a head and a tail. Thus,

Total outcomes for three tosses of a coin = 2 x 2 x 2 = 8

The eight outcomes for this experiment are

HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, and TTT
42
 Example 4-13
A prospective car buyer can choose between
a fixed and a variable interest rate and can
also choose a payment period of 36 months,
48 months, or 60 months. How many total
outcomes are possible?

43
 Solution 4-13

Total outcomes = 2 x 3 = 6

44
 Example 4-14
A National Football League team will play 16 games
during a regular season. Each game can result in
one of three outcomes: a win, a lose, or a tie. The
total possible outcomes for 16 games are calculated
as follows:
Total outcomes = 3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3 ·3·3·3·3
= 316 = 43,046,721
One of the 43,046,721 possible outcomes is all 16
wins.

45
 MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
Suppose all 100 employees of a company were
asked whether they are in favor of or against
paying high salaries to CEOs of U.S. companies.
Table 4.3 gives a two way classification of the
responses of these 100 employees.

46
 Table 4.3 Two-Way Classification of Employee
Responses

In Favor Against
Male 15 45
Female 4 36

47
MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
Table 4.4 Two-Way Classification of Employee Responses
with Totals

In Favor Against Total

Male 15 45 60
Female 4 36 40
Total 19 81 100

48
 MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
Definition
Marginal probability is the probability of
a single event without consideration of any
other event. Marginal probability is also
called simple probability.

49
 Table 4.5 Listing the Marginal Probabilities

In Favor Against Total

(A ) (B )
Male (M ) 15 45 60 P (M ) = 60/100 = .60

Female (F ) 4 36 40 P (F ) = 40/100 = .40

Total 19 81 100
P (A ) = 19/100 P (B ) = 81/100
= .19 = .81

50
 MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES cont.

Read as “given”

P ( in favor | male)
The event whose This event has
probability is to be already occurred
determined

51
 MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES cont.
Definition
Conditional probability is the probability that
an event will occur given that another has already
occurred. If A and B are two events, then the
conditional probability A given B is written as
P(A|B)
and read as “the probability of A given that B has
already occurred.”

52
 Example 4-15
Compute the conditional probability
P ( in favor | male) for the data on 100
employees given in Table 4.4.

53
 Solution 4-15
In Favor Against Total
Male 15 45 60

Males who are Total number of

in favor males

Number of males who are in favor 15

P(in favor | male)    .25
Total number of males 60

54
Figure 4.6 We are to find the
Tree Diagram. probability of this event

le
Ma
This event has rs
|
a vo /60 Required probability
already occurred F 15

Ag a
inst
45/6 | Male
le 0
Ma 00
/1
60

Fe le
ma Fe ma
40 |
/10 le ors
0 Fav 0
4/4

Ag
ain
st |
Fem
36/4 ale
0

55
 Example 4-16
For the data of Table 4.4, calculate the
conditional probability that a randomly
selected employee is a female given that
this employee is in favor of paying high
salaries to CEOs.

56
 Solution 4-16
In Favor
15 Females who are in favor

4 Total number of employees who are in favor

19

Number of females who are in favor

P(female | in favor) 
Total number of employees who are in favor
4
  .2105
19
57
Figure 4.7 Tree diagram.

rs
This event has |F
a vo
le
already occurred Ma
15
/60 We are to find the
Fem probability of this event
a le |
4/19 Fav
o rs
rs
vo
Fa 100
/
19
Required probability

Ag
ai nst
81 ainst | Ag
/10 le
0 Ma /81
45

Fem
ale
|A
gai
36/8 nst
1

58
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS
Definition
Events that cannot occur together are said
to be mutually exclusive events.

59
 Example 4-17
Consider the following events for one roll of a
die:
A= an even number is observed= {2, 4, 6}
B= an odd number is observed= {1, 3, 5}
C= a number less than 5 is observed= {1, 2, 3, 4}
Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Are
events A and C mutually exclusive?

60
 Solution 4-17
Figure 4.8 Mutually exclusive events A and B.

S
A
1 2
5 6

3 4

61
Solution 4-17
Figure 4.9 Mutually nonexclusive events A and C.

62
 Example 4-18
Consider the following two events for a
randomly selected adult:
Y = this adult has shopped on the Internet at
least once
N = this adult has never shopped on the Internet
Are events Y and N mutually exclusive?

63
Solution 4-18
Figure 4.10 Mutually exclusive events Y and N.

S
Y N

64
 INDEPENDENT VERSUS
DEPENDENT EVENTS
Definition
Two events are said to be independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of the other. In
other words, A and B are independent
events if
either P (A | B ) = P (A ) or P (B | A ) = P (B )

65
 Example 4-19
Refer to the information on 100 employees
given in Table 4.4. Are events “female (F )”
and “in favor (A )” independent?

66
 Solution 4-19
Events F and A will be independent if
P (F ) = P (F | A )

Otherwise they will be dependent.

From the information given in Table 4.4
P (F ) = 40/100 = .40
P (F | A ) = 4/19 = .2105
Because these two probabilities are not equal, the
two events are dependent.
67
 Example 4-20
A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were
manufactured on two machines. Of them, 60 were
manufactured on Machine I. Of the total CDs, 15
are defective. Of the 60 CDs that were
manufactured on Machine I, 9 are defective.
Let D be the event that a randomly selected CD is
defective, and let A be the event that a randomly
selected CD was manufactured on Machine I. Are
events D and A independent?

68
 Solution 4-20
From the given information,
P (D ) = 15/100 = .15
P (D | A ) = 9/60 = .15
Hence,
P (D ) = P (D | A )
Consequently, the two events are
independent.

69
 Table 4.6 Two-Way Classification Table

Defective Good
(D ) (G ) Total
Machine I (A ) 9 51 60
Machine II (B ) 6 34 40
Total 15 85 100

70
 Two Important Observations
 Two events are either mutually exclusive or
independent.
 Mutually exclusive events are always
dependent.
 Independent events are never mutually
exclusive.
 Dependents events may or may not be
mutually exclusive.
71
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
Definition
The complement of event A, denoted by Ā
and is read as “A bar” or “A complement”, is
the event that includes all the outcomes for
an experiment that are not in A.

72
Figure 4.11 Venn diagram of two complementary
events.

A A

73
 Example 4-21
In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have
been audited by the IRS at least once. If one
taxpayer is randomly selected from this
group, what are the two complementary
events for this experiment, and what are
their probabilities?

74
 Solution
 The complementary events for this experiment are
 A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by
the IRS at least once
 Ā = the selected taxpayer has never been
audited by the IRS

 The probabilities of the complementary events are:

P (A) = 400/2000 = .20

P (Ā) = 1600/2000 = .80

75
Figure 4.12 Venn diagram.

A A

76
 Example 4-22
In a group of 5000 adults, 3500 are in favor
of stricter gun control laws, 1200 are
against such laws, and 300 have no opinion.
One adult is randomly selected from this
group. Let A be the event that this adult is
in favor of stricter gun control laws. What is
the complementary event of A? What are
the probabilities of the two events?
77
 Solution 4-22
 The two complementary events are
 A = the selected adult is in favor of stricter gun
control laws
 Ā = the selected adult either is against such laws or
has no opinion

 The probabilities of the complementary events

are:
P (A) = 3500/5000 = .70
P (Ā) = 1500/5000 = .30

78
Figure 4.13 Venn diagram.

A A

79
INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND
THE MULTIPLICATION RULE
 Intersection of Events
 Multiplication Rule

80
 Intersection of Events

Definition
Let A and B be two events defined in a
sample space. The intersection of A and B
represents the collection of all outcomes that
are common to both A and B and is denoted
by
A and B
81
Figure 4.14 Intersection of events A and B.

A B

A
and
B

Intersection of A and B

82
 Multiplication Rule

Definition
The probability of the intersection of two
events is called their joint probability. It is
written as
P (A and B ) or P (A ∩ B )

83
 INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND
THE MULTIPLICATION RULE
Multiplication Rule to Find Joint Probability

The probability of the intersection of two

events A and B is
P (A and B ) = P (A )P (B |A )

84
 Example 4-23
Table 4.7 gives the classification of all
employees of a company given by gender
and college degree.

85
 Table 4.7 Classification of Employees by Gender and
Education

College Not a College

Graduate Graduate
(G ) (N ) Total
Male (M ) 7 20 27
Female (F ) 4 9 13
Total 11 29 40

86
 Example 4-23
If one of these employees is selected at
random for membership on the employee
management committee, what is the
probability that this employee is a female
and a college graduate?

87
 Solution 4-23
Calculate the intersection of event F and G

P (F and G ) = P (F )P (G |F )
P (F ) = 13/40
P (G |F ) = 4/13
P (F and G ) = (13/40)(4/13) = .100

88
Figure 4.15 Intersection of events F and G.

Females College graduates

Females and college graduates

89
Figure 4.16 Tree diagram for joint probabilities.
Male / female Graduates / nongraduates Final outcomes
P(M and G) = (27/40) (20/27) = .175
G|M

7/27

N|M

M
20/27
P(M and N) = (27/40) (20/27) = .500
24/40

F
P(F and G) = (13/40) (4/13) = .100
G|F
13/40
4/13

9/13
90
N|F P(F and N) = (13/40) (9/13) = .225
 Example 4-24
A box contains 20 DVDs, 4 of which are
defective. If 2 DVDs are selected at random
(without replacement) from this box, what is
the probability that both are defective?

91
 Solution 4-24
Let us define the following events for this
experiment:
G1 = event that the first DVD selected is good
D1 = event that the first DVD selected is defective
G2 = event that the second DVD selected is good
D2 = event that the second DVD selected is defective

The probability to be calculated is

P (D1 and D2) = P (D1 )P (D2 |D1 )
P (D1) = 4/20
P (D2 |D1) = 3/19
P (D1 and D2) = (4/20)(3/19) = .0316 92
Figure 4.17 Selecting two DVDs.

First selection Second selection Final outcomes

P(G1 and G2) = (16/20) (15/19) = .6316
G2 | G1

15/19

D2 | G1

G1
4/19
P(G1 and D2) = (16/20) (4/19) = .1684
16/20

D1
P(D1 and G2) = (4/20) (16/19) = .1684
G2 | D1
4/20
16/19

D2 | D1
3/19 93
P(D1 and D2) = (4/20) (3/19) = .0316
 Multiplication Rule cont.
Calculating Conditional Probability

If A and B are two events, then,

P( A and B) P( A and B)
P( B | A)  and P( A | B) 
P( A) P( B)

given that P (A ) ≠ 0 and P (B ) ≠ 0.

94
 Example 4-25
The probability that a randomly selected
student from a college is a senior is .20, and
the joint probability that the student is a
computer science major and a senior is .03.
Find the conditional probability that a
student selected at random is a computer
science major given that he/she is a senior.

95
 Solution 4-25
 Let us define the following two events:
 A = the student selected is a senior
 B = the student selected is a computer science
major
 From the given information,
P (A) = .20 and P (A and B) = .03
 Hence,
P (B | A ) = .03/.20 = .15

96
 Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
Multiplication Rule to Calculate the
Probability of Independent Events

The probability of the intersection of two

independent events A and B is
P (A and B ) = P (A )P (B )

97
 Example 4-26
An office building has two fire detectors. The
probability is .02 that any fire detector of
this type will fail to go off during a fire. Find
the probability that both of these fire
detectors will fail to go off in case of a fire.

98
 Solution 4-26
Let
A = the first fire detector fails to go off during a fire
B = the second fire detector fails to go off during a
fire
Then, the joint probability of A and B is
P (A and B ) = P (A) P (B ) = (.02)(.02) = .0004

99
 Example 4-27
The probability that a patient is allergic to
penicillin is .20. Suppose this drug is
administered to three patients.

a) Find the probability that all three of them are

allergic to it.
b) Find the probability that at least one of the
them is not allergic to it.

100
 Solution
a) Let A, B, and C denote the events the first,
second and third patients, respectively, are
allergic to penicillin. Hence,

P (A and B and C ) = P (A ) P (B ) P (C )
= (.20) (.20) (.20) = .008

101
 Solution
b) Let us define the following events:
G = all three patients are allergic
H = at least one patient is not allergic
 P (G ) = P (A and B and C ) = .008
 Therefore, using the complementary event
rule, we obtain
 P (H ) = 1 – P (G )
= 1 - .008 = .992
102
Figure 4.18 Tree diagram for joint probabilities.
First patient Second patient Third patient Final outcomes
C P(ABC) = .008
.20

B C

.20 .80 P(ABC) = .032

B
A C P(ABC) = .032
.80 .20
.20 C
.80 P(ABC) = .128

C P(ABC) = .032
A
.20
.80 C
B .80 P(ABC) = .128
.20

B
P(ABC) = .128
.80 C
.20
C
.80 P(ABC) = .512 103
 Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
Joint Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events

The joint probability of two mutually

exclusive events is always zero. If A and B
are two mutually exclusive events, then
P (A and B ) = 0

104
 Example 4-28
Consider the following two events for an
application filed by a person to obtain a car
loan:
A = event that the loan application is approved
R = event that the loan application is rejected
What is the joint probability of A and R?

105
 Solution 4-28
The two events A and R are mutually
exclusive. Either the loan application will be
approved or it will be rejected. Hence,

P (A and R ) = 0

106
 UNION OF EVENTS AND THE
ADDITION RULE
Definition
Let A and B be two events defined in a
sample space. The union of events A and B
is the collection of all outcomes that belong
to either A or B or to both A and B and is
denoted by
A or B

107
 Example 4-29
A senior citizen center has 300 members.
Of them, 140 are male, 210 take at least
one medicine on a permanent basis, and 95
are male and take at least one medicine on
a permanent basis. Describe the union of
the events “male” and “take at least one
medicine on a permanent basis.”

108
 Solution 4-29
 Let us define the following events:
M = a senior citizen is a male
F = a senior citizen is a female
A = a senior citizen takes at least one medicine
B = a senior citizen does not take any medicine

 The union of the events “male” and “take at least

one medicine” includes those senior citizens who
are either male or take at least one medicine or
both. The number of such senior citizen is
140 + 210 – 95 = 255
109
Table 4.8

A B Total
M 95 45 140
F 115 45 160
Total 210 90 300
Counted twice

110
Figure 4.19 Union of events M and A.

M A

Shaded area gives the union of events M and A, and

includes 255 senior citizen
111
 Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
Addition Rule

Addition Rule to Find the Probability of Union

of Events
The portability of the union of two events A
and B is
P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B) – P (A and B )

112
 Example 4-30
A university president has proposed that all
students must take a course in ethics as a
requirement for graduation. Three hundred faculty
members and students from this university were
asked about their opinion on this issue. Table 4.9
gives a two-way classification of the responses of
these faculty members and students.
Find the probability that one person selected at
random from these 300 persons is a faculty
member or is in favor of this proposal.
113
 Table 4.9 Two-Way Classification of Responses

Favor Oppose Neutral Total

Faculty 45 15 10 70
Student 90 110 30 230
Total 135 125 40 300

114
 Solution 4-30
Let us define the following events:
A = the person selected is a faculty member
B = the person selected is in favor of the proposal
From the information in the Table 4.9,
P (A ) = 70/300 = .2333
P (B ) = 135/300 = .4500
P (A and B) = P (A) P (B | A ) = (70/300)(45/70) = .1500
Using the addition rule, we have
P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) – P (A and B )
= .2333 + .4500 – .1500 = .5333
115
 Example 4-31
A total of 2500 persons, 1400 are female,
600 are vegetarian, and 400 are female and
vegetarian. What is the probability that a
randomly selected person from this group is
a male or vegetarian?

116
 Solution 4-31
Let us define the following events:
F = the randomly selected person is a female
M = the randomly selected person is a male
V = the randomly selected person is a vegetarian
N = the randomly selected person is a non-vegetarian.
P( M or V )  P( M )  P(V )  P( M and V )
1100 600 200
  
2500 2500 2500
 .44  .24  .08  .60
117
 Table 4.10 Two-Way Classification Table

Vegetarian (V) Nonvegetarian (N) Total

Female (F) 400 1000 1400
Male (M) 200 900 1100
Total 600 1900 2500

118
 Addition Rule for Mutually
Exclusive Events
Addition Rule to Find the Probability of the
Union of Mutually Exclusive Events
The probability of the union of two
mutually exclusive events A and B is

P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B )

119
 Example 4-32
A university president has proposed that all
students must take a course in ethics as a
requirement for graduation. Three hundred
faculty members and students from this university
were asked about their opinion on this issue. The
following table, reproduced from Table 4.9 in
Example 4-30, gives a two-way classification of
the responses of these faculty members and
students.

120
 Table 4.9 Two-Way Classification of Responses

Favor Oppose Neutral Total

Faculty 45 15 10 70
Student 90 110 30 230
Total 135 125 40 300

121
Example 4-32
What is the probability that a randomly
selected person from these 300 faculty
members and students is in favor of the
proposal or is neutral?

122
Figure 4.20 Venn diagram of mutually exclusive
events.

N
F

123
 Solution 4-32
Let us define the following events:
F = the person selected is in favor of the proposal
N = the person selected is neutral
From the given information,
P (F ) = 135/300 = .4500
P (N ) = 40/300 = .1333
Hence,
P (F or N ) = P (F ) + P (N ) = .4500 + .1333 = .5833

124
 Example 4-33
Consider the experiment of rolling a die
twice. Find the probability that the sum of
the numbers obtained on two rolls is 5, 7,
or 10.

125
 Table 4.11 Two Rolls of a Die

Second Roll of the Die

1 2 3 4 5 6
First 1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
Roll of 2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
the Die 3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

126
 Solution 4-33
P (sum is 5 or 7 or 10)
= P (sum is 5) + P (sum is 7) + P (sum is 10)
= 4/36 + 6/36 + 3/36
= 13/36
= .3611

127
 Example 4-34
The probability that a person is in favor of
genetic engineering is .55 and that a
person is against it is .45. Two persons are
randomly selected, and it is observed
whether they favor or oppose genetic
engineering.
a) Draw a tree diagram for this experiment
b) Find the probability that at least one of the
two persons favors genetic engineering.
128
 Solution 4-34
a) Let
F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering
A = a person is against genetic engineering

The tree diagram in Figure 4.21 shows these four

outcomes and their probabilities.

129
Figure 4.21 Tree diagram.
First person Second person Final outcomes and their
probabilities

P(FF) = (.55) (.55) = .3025

F
.55

A
F .45
.55 P(FA) = (.55) (.45) = .2475
.55

A P(AF) = (.45) (.55) = .2475

.45 F
.55

A
.45
P(AA) = (.45) (.45) = .2025
130
 Solution
b) P ( at least one person favors)
= P (FF or FA or AF )
= P (FF ) + P (FA ) + P (AF )
= .3025 + .2475 + .2475
= .7975

131