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Farmers' Awareness in the Context of Climate Change: An Underutilized Way

for Ensuring Sustainable Farmland Adaptation and Surface Water Quality

Article in Sustainability · October 2021

DOI: 10.3390/su132111802

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 sustainability

Article
Farmers’ Awareness in the Context of Climate Change:
An Underutilized Way for Ensuring Sustainable Farmland
Adaptation and Surface Water Quality
Ahmed Awad 1,2 , Wan Luo 1, *, Nadhir Al-Ansari 3, * , Ahmed Elbeltagi 4 , Mustafa El-Rawy 5,6 ,
Hesham N. Farres 7 and Mohamed EL-Sayed Gabr 8

1 College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China;
eng_ahmed_awad@yahoo.com
2 Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), Giza 11925, Egypt
3 Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Lulea University of Technology,
97187 Lulea, Sweden
4 Agricultural Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt;
ahmedelbeltagy81@mans.edu.eg
5 Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Minia University, Minia 61111, Egypt;
mustafa.elrawy@mu.edu.eg
6 Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Shaqra University, Dawadmi 11911, Saudi Arabia
7 Irrigation and Hydraulic Department, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, Egypt;
hisham_nazme@eng.asu.edu.eg
8 Civil Engineering Department, High Institute for Engineering and Technology, New Damietta 34517, Egypt;





 mohamed.gabr@ndeti.edu.eg
* Correspondence: luowan@yzu.edu.cn (W.L.); nadhir.alansari@ltu.se (N.A.-A.)
Citation: Awad, A.; Luo, W.;
Al-Ansari, N.; Elbeltagi, A.; El-Rawy, Abstract: Simulations using the Crop Water and Irrigation Requirements model (CROPWAT), show
M.; Farres, H.N.; Gabr, M.E.-S. that the projected climatic changes over the period from 2026 to 2050 in the Yanyun irrigation
Farmers’ Awareness in the Context of
district, Yangzhou, China, will cause the paddy lands there to lose about 12.4% to 37.4%, and 1.6% to
Climate Change: An Underutilized
45.6%, of their future seasonal rainwater in runoff under the Representative Concentration Pathways
Way for Ensuring Sustainable
(RCP45 and RCP85), respectively. This may increase future irrigation requirements (IRs), alongside
Farmland Adaptation and Surface
threatening the quality of adjacent water bodies. The CROPWAT simulations were re-run after
Water Quality. Sustainability 2021, 13,
11802. https://doi.org/10.3390/
increasing the Surface Storage Capacity (SSC) of the land by 50% and 100% of its baseline value.
su132111802 The results state that future rainwater runoff will be reduced by up to 76% and 100%, and 53% and
100% when the SSC is increased by 50% and 100%, under RCP45 and RCP85, respectively. This
Academic Editor: Piotr Prus mitigates the future increase in IRs (e.g., under RCP45, up to about 11% and 16% of future IRs will
be saved when increasing the SSC by 50% and 100%, respectively), thus saving the adjacent water
Received: 17 September 2021 bodies from the contaminated runoff from these lands. Adjusting the SSC of farmlands is an easy
Accepted: 20 October 2021 physical approach that can be practiced by farmers, and therefore educating them on how to follow
Published: 26 October 2021 up the rainfall forecast and then adjust the level of their farmlands’ boundaries according to these
forecasts may help in the self-adaptation of vast areas of farmlands to climate change. These findings
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral
will help water users conserve agricultural water resources (by mitigating the future increase in
with regard to jurisdictional claims in
IRs) alongside ensuring better quality for adjacent water bodies (by decreasing future runoff from
published maps and institutional affil-
these farmlands). Increasing farmers’ awareness, an underutilized approach, is a potential tool for
iations.
ensuring improved agricultural circumstances amid projected climate changes and preserving the
available water resources.

Keywords: crop water requirements; irrigated agriculture; paddy fields; soil water balance; Surface
Copyright: © 2021 by the authors.
Storage Capacity; water conservation
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
1. Introduction
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ Recently, in the year 2021, several disasters have occurred in many parts of the world,
4.0/). such as Germany, China, Greece and Turkey. These global disasters are potentially caused

Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111802 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 17

1. Introduction
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 2 of 16
Recently, in the year 2021, several disasters have occurred in many parts of the world,
such as Germany, China, Greece and Turkey. These global disasters are potentially caused
by climate
by climate change
change(Figure
(Figure1).
1). The
The fear
fear is
is that
that these
these climatic
climatic changes
changes tend
tend to
to be
be more
more severe
severe
and frequent than those predicted by specialists. The last IPCC report [1]
and frequent than those predicted by specialists. The last IPCC report [1] was described aswas described
ascode
“a “a code redhumanity”
red for for humanity” because
because of theofunprecedented
the unprecedented and sometimes
and sometimes irreversible
irreversible ways
ways
in whichin which the climate
the global global climate
changes.changes. Unfortunately,
Unfortunately, thisindicated
this report report indicated
that we willthatstill
we
will still overshoot
overshoot the globalthe global limit
warming warming ◦ C by
of 1.5limit of2030,
1.5 °Cregardless
by 2030, regardless of the
of the relevant relevant
mitigation
mitigation
efforts and efforts andreductions
emissions emissions [1].
reductions [1].

Figure 1.
Figure 1. Examples
Examples of
of some
some global
global disasters
disasters that
that occurred
occurred in
in 2021
2021 as
as aa result
resultof
ofthe
thesevere
severeclimatic
climatic
changes (modified after https://tinyurl.com/294ad77a, https://tinyurl.com/cvsp3vkw,
changes (modified after https://tinyurl.com/294ad77a, https://tinyurl.com/cvsp3vkw, https:// https://ti-
nyurl.com/2m2j5fcw, and https://tinyurl.com/sy334kmm (accessed on 11 October 2021).
tinyurl.com/2m2j5fcw, and https://tinyurl.com/sy334kmm (accessed on 11 October 2021)).

Climatechange
Climate changeaffects
affectsmany
manyaspects
aspectsof oflife.
life. The
The agricultural
agricultural sector sector isis majorly
majorly affected
affected
while farmlands, in particular, are always exposed to
while farmlands, in particular, are always exposed to more severe hazards due to more severe hazards due to such
such
climatic changes. Many studies including those by Karimi et al.
climatic changes. Many studies including those by Karimi et al. [2], Chandio et al. [3], and [2], Chandio et al. [3], and
Malhiet
Malhi etal.
al.[4]
[4]have
havereported
reported thethe adverse
adverse impacts
impacts of climate
of climate change
change on agricultural
on agricultural prac-
practices
ticesproduction.
and and production. Generally,
Generally, mostmost of climate
of climate change’s
change’s adverseadverse impacts
impacts on farmlands
on farmlands are
are related
related to a “water
to a “water story” story” in which
in which climatic
climatic changeschanges
resultresult in undesirable
in undesirable water water distri-
distribution
bution patterns
patterns in theseinlands,
these which
lands, which
in turninwould
turn would adversely
adversely impact impact agricultural
agricultural produc-
productivity,
tivity, resources,
water water resources,
and the and the surrounding
surrounding environment.
environment. An example
An example of thisofisthis is found
found on theon
the lower
lower reaches
reaches of theofYangtze
the Yangtze RiverRiver
basin,basin,
wherewheremany manystudies, studies,
such assuchthatas bythat
Su et byal.Su[5],
et
al. [5],
have have projected
projected a warmer a warmer
climate climate
and more andfrequent
more frequent
extremeextreme storm events.
storm events. These
These events
tend
events to tend
increase runoff, and
to increase Yinand
runoff, et al.Yin
[6]etreported that these
al. [6] reported thatextreme storm runoffs
these extreme storm caused
runoffs
by climate
caused by change
climate increase globally globally
change increase at high rates even
at high higher
rates even than what
higher waswhat
than suggested
was sug- by
Clausius
gested byClapeyron scaling [7].scaling
Clausius Clapeyron Such a [7].
phenomenon deprives the
Such a phenomenon soil of large
deprives amount
the soil of largeof
rainwater, which is lost in the runoff. This represents a great
amount of rainwater, which is lost in the runoff. This represents a great challenge as re-challenge as regards making
use
gardsof such
making water
usevolumes
of such waterin the volumes
light of limited
in the water
light of resources.
limited water In addition,
resources.suchInrunoff
addi-
carries
tion, suchmany contaminants
runoff carries many (e.g.,contaminants
nutrients, sediments, etc.) into
(e.g., nutrients, adjacent water
sediments, bodies
etc.) into [8,9],
adjacent
resulting
water bodies in the severe
[8,9], deterioration
resulting of their
in the severe quality [10,11]
deterioration (Figure
of their 2). Agricultural
quality [10,11] (Figure non-2).
point source pollution
Agricultural non-pointhas recently
source been identified
pollution has recently as the
beenleading threatastothe
identified water quality
leading in
threat
rivers
to water andquality
lakes, in and many
rivers andresearchers
lakes, andhavemany reported it to significantly
researchers have reported contribute to water
it to significantly
environment pollution in many countries [12–14].
contribute to water environment pollution in many countries [12–14].
Based on the above-mentioned, the adverse impacts of climate change on farmlands
are not limited to the field scale, but rather extend to many other environmental resources.
As such, mitigating such adverse impacts in farmlands will help to ensure high agricul-
tural productivity and provide better conditions for the surrounding environment, thus
easing the complexities of climate change adaptation policies.
 Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 17
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 3 of 16

Figure2.2. Runoff
Figure Runoffand
andnutrient
nutrienttransport
transportfrom
fromfarmlands
farmlandsto
toadjacent
adjacentwater
waterbodies.
bodies.

Based on the
Therefore, theabove-mentioned,
present study aims theto adverse
assess impacts
whetherof climateinchange
farmers the loweron farmlands
reaches of
are not limited to the field scale, but rather extend to many
the Yangtze River basin can self-manage their farmlands in a way that mitigates other environmental resources.
the pro-
As such,
jected mitigating
adverse impactssuch of
adverse
climate impacts
change in(represented
farmlands will inhelp to ensure
the future high runoff
higher agricultural
rates)
productivity
on these lands andtoprovide
ensure better
better conditions
agriculturalfor theenvironmental
and surrounding environment,
conditions. The thusadopted
easing
the complexities
methodology willofreduce
climatethechange adaptation
challenges policies.
and responsibilities of climate change adaptation
Therefore, the present study aims to assess
authorities, as every farmer will be able to self-adapt their farm while whether farmers in thealsolower reachesit
preventing
of the Yangtze River basin can self-manage their farmlands
from exporting any risks to the surrounding environment. Despite the fact that farmers in a way that mitigates the
projected adverse impacts of climate change (represented in the
are the controller of agricultural activities and management practices in farmlands, there future higher runoff rates)
on
is athese
lack oflands to ensure
studies better
that report onagricultural
farmers’ roles andinenvironmental
climate changeconditions. The adopted
adaptation policies. Only
methodology will reduce the challenges and responsibilities
very few studies, such as that by Arbuckle et al. [15], have considered and studied of climate change adaptation
how
authorities, as every farmer will be able to self-adapt their farm
farmers’ awareness, concerns, and attitudes towards climate change affect the adaptation while also preventing it
from exporting
policies any risks Therefore
and outcomes. to the surrounding
the present environment.
study aimsDespite the fact
to exploit the that farmers and
dominance are
the controller of agricultural activities and management practices in farmlands, there is a
control of farmers over their farmlands to educate them on how to manage these lands
lack of studies that report on farmers’ roles in climate change adaptation policies. Only very
and ensure the mitigation of climate change’s adverse impacts, thus maximizing the un-
few studies, such as that by Arbuckle et al. [15], have considered and studied how farmers’
derutilized role of farmers in climate change adaptation policies.
awareness, concerns, and attitudes towards climate change affect the adaptation policies
The methodology to help farmers achieve such adaptation is regarded as a tool by
and outcomes. Therefore the present study aims to exploit the dominance and control of
which the farmland water balance can be adjusted to is the level desired. In addition, such
farmers over their farmlands to educate them on how to manage these lands and ensure
a tool should be easily and physically adjustable, with no complexities, in order to allow
the mitigation of climate change’s adverse impacts, thus maximizing the underutilized role
non-skilled farmers to achieve such adaptation.
of farmers in climate change adaptation policies.
As a rule, the land surface is the first receiver of water from precipitation or surface
The methodology to help farmers achieve such adaptation is regarded as a tool by
irrigation. Since the surface is not perfectly flat or smooth, irrigation or rainwater are col-
which the farmland water balance can be adjusted to is the level desired. In addition, such
lected in surface depressions, forming sinks and ponds. The maximum amount of water
a tool should be easily and physically adjustable, with no complexities, in order to allow
held per unit
non-skilled area istocalled
farmers achievethe such
Surface Storage Capacity (SSC) [16]. Excess water accumu-
adaptation.
latesAsin surface depressions under extreme
a rule, the land surface is the first receiver precipitation events,
of water fromwhere the rainfall
precipitation exceeds
or surface
irrigation. Since the surface is not perfectly flat or smooth, irrigation or rainwater sur-
the soil’s infiltrability. When the ponding volume exceeds the SSC, water on the land are
face startsintosurface
collected overflow from theseforming
depressions, puddlessinks and and
runoff begins.
ponds. TheSo,maximum
SSC acts as the limit
amount of
between
water heldthe
per best
unitutilization of irrigation
area is called the Surfaceor rainwater (when it is
Storage Capacity retained
(SSC) [16]. and infiltrates
Excess water
into the soil)inand
accumulates its loss
surface (when it runs
depressions under off). The higher
extreme the SSC,events,
precipitation the better
where thethe
utilization
rainfall
exceeds the soil’s infiltrability. When the ponding volume exceeds the SSC, waterreported
of water in farmlands due to the low runoff, and vice versa. Several studies have on the
the efficiency
land of increasing
surface starts to overflow SSC from
in farmlands, at largeand
these puddles scales,
runoffas an approach
begins. So, that
SSC helps
acts asto
retain
the water,
limit betweenthus the mitigating runoff from
best utilization these lands
of irrigation and conserving
or rainwater (when agricultural
it is retainedwater
and
[17–19]. into the soil) and its loss (when it runs off). The higher the SSC, the better the
infiltrates
Therefore,
utilization of water thein present
farmlandsstudy dueaims to: low runoff, and vice versa. Several studies have
to the
•
reported the the
Assess efficiency
role ofofSSC increasing SSC inphysical
(as a simple farmlands, at largethat
approach scales, as an approach
is easily managedthat and
helpsadjusted
to retain bywater, thus mitigating
farmers) in mitigating runoff from these
the projected lands change’s
climate and conserving
adverseagricultural
impacts on
waterpaddy
[17–19]. lands’ water balance at the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin;
• Assess how such adaptation affects the future irrigation requirements in the study
area.
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 4 of 16

Therefore, the present study aims to:

• Assess the role of SSC (as a simple physical approach that is easily managed and
adjusted by farmers) in mitigating the projected climate change’s adverse impacts on
paddy lands’ water balance at the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin;
• Assess how such adaptation affects the future irrigation requirements in the study
area.
The specific objectives of the study are to:
1. Project future (2026–2045) climate changes in the study area;
2. Estimate future rainwater losses and irrigation requirements corresponding to the
projected climate changes by applying the CROPWAT model;
3. Re-run CROPWAT simulations under higher SSC conditions (50% and 100% higher
than the baseline value) to assess the influence of SSC changes on future runoff losses
and irrigation requirements.
The CROPWAT model was developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) [20], and became a well-known tool that has been used by many researchers (e.g.,
Gabr et al. [21], Lalic et al. [22], Bhat et al. [23], etc.) to assess the potential impacts of
changes in field conditions, weather patterns, agricultural practices, etc., on irrigation
requirements and crop yield.
The findings of this study will make it easy to report the degree of efficiency of
adjusting SSC, as a physical adaptation approach that farmers can use (due to its simplicity),
in saving farmlands alongside the surrounding environment from the projected climate
change’s adverse impacts, thus indicating farmers’ potential role in easing the challenges
of climate change adaptation policies.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area
The lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin are rich in paddy lands. A 1-hectare
area was selected as the study area in these reaches, located at the Yangzhou Irrigation and
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 17
Drainage Experimental Station, Yanyun irrigation district, Yangzhou City, China (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Study area; showing the location, the meteorological station, and the surrounding water
Figure Study area; showing the location, the meteorological station, and the surrounding water
3. canals.
bodies and
bodies and canals.
2.2. CROPWAT Model
The CROPWAT is an empirical process-based model developed by the Food and Ag-
riculture Organization (FAO) to propose proper irrigation strategies that result in better
crop management, and thus high agricultural productivity [20]. The model integrates sev-
eral modules that are necessary to predict irrigation water requirements and their sched-
uling.
As shown in Figure 4, the model requires a set of data related to weather, crop, and
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 5 of 16

The area is characterized by a flat topography; the elevations here range from 5 to 8 m
+ MSL (mean sea level). The annual precipitation is about 1000 mm while the annual mean
values of maximum and minimum temperatures are 21 ◦ C and 12.3 ◦ C, respectively [24].
Rice grows in the study area from late June to early November. Despite the ample
rainfall in the study area, irrigation is practiced during the rice-growing season to ensure
the satisfaction of the high rice water requirements. Irrigation water is sourced from a
nearby canal adjacent to the study area (Figure 3).

2.2. CROPWAT Model

The CROPWAT is an empirical process-based model developed by the Food and Agri-
culture Organization (FAO) to propose proper irrigation strategies that result in better crop
management, and thus high agricultural productivity [20]. The model integrates several
modules that are necessary to predict irrigation water requirements and their scheduling.
As shown in Figure 4, the model requires a set of data related to weather, crop, and
field conditions in order to produce several outputs that help to better manage the agri-
cultural process. Because of the weather input module, which comprises several weather
parameters, CROPWAT has been reported and applied at a wide scale as a good tool that
predicts the potential impacts of climate change on the future irrigation requirements of
several crops, such as rice [25], soybean [26], peaches [27], potato [28], wheat and maize [29],
etc. Therefore, the model was applied in the present study to assess future variations in
irrigation requirements in the study area under the projected climate changes (2026–2045).
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 17
The simulation period was divided into four periods: 2026 to 2030, 2031 to 2035, 2036 to
2040, and 2041 to 2045.

Figure 4. Main
Figure 4. Main inputs
inputs and
and outputs of the
outputs of the CROPWAT
CROPWAT model.
model.

Surface Storage Capacity

CROPWAT in the
simulations forCROPWAT Modelrequirements were run multiple under
future irrigation
different
The soil input module in the CROPWATtomodel
values of Surface Storage Capacity assesscomprises
its role inthe
mitigating
input of the adverse
“Maximum
impacts of climate change on future farmlands’ water balance and irrigation requirements.
water depth (Figure 5)”, which refers to the maximum water level over the inundated rice
fields and depends on the height of field boundaries and the quality of field leveling. This
Surface Storage Capacity in the CROPWAT Model
item fits the definition of surface storage capacity and therefore was considered to simu-
Theimpact
late the soil input modulesurface
of different in the CROPWAT model on
storage capacities comprises the inputrequirements
future irrigation of “Maximum in
water depth
the study area.(Figure 5)”, which refers to the maximum water level over the inundated rice
fields and depends on the height of field boundaries and the quality of field leveling. This
item fits the definition of surface storage capacity and therefore was considered to simulate
the impact of different surface storage capacities on future irrigation requirements in the
study area.
 The soil input module in the CROPWAT model comprises the input of “Maximum
water depth (Figure 5)”, which refers to the maximum water level over the inundated rice
fields and depends on the height of field boundaries and the quality of field leveling. This
item fits the definition of surface storage capacity and therefore was considered to simu-
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 6 of 16
late the impact of different surface storage capacities on future irrigation requirements in
the study area.

Figure 5.
Figure 5. Soil
Soilinput
inputmodule
moduleininthe
theCROPWAT
CROPWAT model;
model; showing
showing thethe input
input of “Maximum
of “Maximum water
water depth”,
depth”, which represents the Surface Storage
which represents the Surface Storage Capacity. Capacity.
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 17
Based on
Based on field
field observations,
observations,thethesurface
surfacestorage
storagecapacity
capacityininthe
thestudy
studyarea was
area about
was about 5
5 cm. Two other scenarios were considered related to the future Surface Storage
cm. Two other scenarios were considered related to the future Surface Storage Capacity in Capacity
in CROPWAT
CROPWAT
2.3. simulations;
Collectionsimulations;
of Data Required to Set up and Run the CROPWAT Model
• 50% higher future surface storage capacity than the current one
•2.3.1.50%
Weather Data
higher future surface storage capacity than the current one
• 100% higher future surface storage capacity than the current one
• In the present
100% higher study,
futureweather
surfacedata are divided
storage into
capacity twothe
than groups;
current one.
• Baseline weather data: These data were used, alongside the other historical weather
2.3. Collection
data, as a of Data Required
reference to Set Up
for comparing to and Run
future the CROPWAT
weather Model
projections to assess the pro-
jected climate
2.3.1. Weather Data changes in the study area.
• Future weather data: These data were used as input in the CROPWAT model to esti-
In the present study, weather data are divided into two groups;
mate the future irrigation requirements of the rice-growing season in the study area.
• Baseline
For baselineweather
weatherdata:
data,These data were
an automated used, alongside
meteorological stationthe
of other historical
the type “Camp- weather
bell scientific (Figure 6)” was installed in the study area to collect the daily weather the
data, as a reference for comparing to future weather projections to assess dataprojected
climate
in terms changesand
of maximum in the study area.
minimum temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind speed
•and solar
Future weather
radiation, data: many
alongside Theseother
dataparameters.
were used as input in the CROPWAT model to
For futurethe
estimate weather
futuredata, Awadrequirements
irrigation et al. [30] used
ofthe
theRegional Climate
rice-growing Downscaling
season in the study area.
Experiment (CORDEX) to project future climate changes (2021:2050) in the study area.
For baseline weather data, an automated meteorological station of the type “Campbell
CORDEX was established in 2013 to provide an internationally coordinated framework
scientific
that improves(Figure 6)” was
regional installed
climate in the
scenarios forstudy area to
numerous collectdomains,
regional the dailyalongside
weather data in
terms of maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, humidity,
providing new statistical methods for downscaling [31]. In the present study, we used windthespeed and
solar radiation, alongside many other parameters.
results reported by Awad et al. [27] to assess the future climatic changes in the study area.

Figure 6.6.Setup
Figure Setupofof
the meteorological
the station
meteorological in theinstudy
station area. area.
the study

2.3.2. Soil and Crop Data

The study area is characterized by a loamy to silt-loam soil. Table 1 lists the soil data
considered in CROPWAT simulations. Crop data were determined based on FAO recom-
mendations alongside the reported literature [32].
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 7 of 16

For future weather data, Awad et al. [30] used the Regional Climate Downscaling
Experiment (CORDEX) to project future climate changes (2021:2050) in the study area.
CORDEX was established in 2013 to provide an internationally coordinated framework that
improves regional climate scenarios for numerous regional domains, alongside providing
new statistical methods for downscaling [31]. In the present study, we used the results
reported by Awad et al. [27] to assess the future climatic changes in the study area.

2.3.2. Soil and Crop Data

The study area is characterized by a loamy to silt-loam soil. Table 1 lists the soil
data considered in CROPWAT simulations. Crop data were determined based on FAO
recommendations alongside the reported literature [32].

Table 1. Soil properties considered in CROPWAT simulations.

Soil Property Value

Total available soil moisture (FC-WP) 140 mm/m
Initial soil moisture depletion 50%
Drainable porosity (SAT-FC) 6%
Water availability at planting 1 mm WD
Maximum rain infiltration rate 30 mm/day
FC: field capacity. WP: wilting point. SAT: saturation. WD: water depth.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Future Climate Pattern in the Study Area
3.1.1. Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
Projections of future climate in the study area show that, under both scenarios RCP45
and RCP85, there will be remarkable increases in the daily values of maximum and mini-
mum temperatures. Many researchers, including Gu et al. [33], have reported the same
trend, stating that mostareas in the Yangtze River basin stand out as “hotspots” of climate
change in China, with a high possibility of significant future increases in annual temper-
ature. Figure 7 shows the future variation in the daily average values of maximum and
minimum temperatures in the study area.
It is clear from Figure 7 that the daily values of maximum and minimum temperatures
tend to be higher under RCP85, which is consistent with the reported literature, such as
that in Cubasch et al. [34].
Abtew and Melesse [35] reported that global warming could directly affect evapo-
transpiration through many means, such as temperature increases. Thus, the projected
increases in daily maximum and minimum temperatures are persumed to have a great
effect on increasing the future evapotranspiration rates. Since the future highest tem-
perature values in the study area are projected to be stationary in the months May to
August, which is the rice-growing season, it is necessary to assess how such projected
increases in daily temperature values will impact future evapotranspiration, and thus rice
irrigation requirements.
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 17
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 8 of 16

7. Future variation in daily

Figure 7. daily average
average values
values of
of maximum
maximum and
and minimum
minimum temperatures
temperatures in
in the
the
study area, under
under RCP45
RCP45 and
and RCP85.
RCP85.

3.1.2. Precipitation
Based ononclimate
climatechange
changeprojections,
projections,thethe
study
studyarea willwill
area suffer fromfrom
suffer moremore
intense pre-
intense
cipitation events
precipitation under
events scenarios
under RCP45
scenarios and RCP85.
RCP45 Figure
and RCP85. 8 shows
Figure the daily
8 shows the contribution
daily contri-
of rainwater
bution as a percentage
of rainwater of the total
as a percentage seasonal
of the rainfall.rainfall.
total seasonal
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 17
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 9 of 16

Daily rainfall contribution (as % of

RCP45 2026–2030
2031–2035

the total seasonal rainfall)

4
2036–2040
2041–2045
3

0
Daily rainfall contribution (as % of

5
RCP85 2026–2030
the total seasonal rainfall)

4 2031–2035
2036–2040
2041–2045
3

Figure 8. Daily contribution of future rainfall in the study area (as % of the future seasonal rainfall).
Figure 8. Daily contribution of future rainfall in the study area (as % of the future seasonal rainfall).
3.2. CROPWAT Simulations
3.2. CROPWAT
3.2.1. Simulations
CROPWAT Estimates for Future Daily Evapotranspiration
3.2.1. Figure 9 shows
CROPWAT CROPWAT
Estimates estimates
for Future forEvapotranspiration
Daily the future daily evapotranspiration under
RCP45 and 9RCP85.
Figure showsThe figure shows
CROPWAT that days
estimates in the
for the months
future dailyMay to August are projected
evapotranspiration under
to have higher daily evapotranspiration values than the rest of the simulation
RCP45 and RCP85. The figure shows that days in the months May to August are projected period. This
may increase the irrigation requirements on these days if there are no proper precipitation
to have higher daily evapotranspiration values than the rest of the simulation period. This
events
may that can
increase theprovide
irrigationas requirements
much soil water to compensate
on these forare
days if there these
no high evapotranspira-
proper precipitation
tion values.
events that can provide as much soil water to compensate for these high evapotranspira-
tion values.
3.2.2. CROPWAT Estimates for Future Irrigation Requirements
3.2.2. The CROPWAT
CROPWAT model for
Estimates considers
Future four approaches
Irrigation to empirically determine the rain-
Requirements
water losses, and thus the “effective rainfall” values that can compensate for the soil-water
The CROPWAT
shortage model
resulting from theconsiders four approaches
evapotranspiration to empirically
process. determine
In a case wherein the the rain-
effective
water losses, and thus the “effective rainfall” values that can compensate for the soil-water
rainfall cannot entirely compensate for the soil moisture depletion, the model estimates
shortage resulting
the required fromthat
irrigation thecan
evapotranspiration
compensate for the process. In asoil
rest of the case wherein
moisture the effective
depletion. This
rainfall
present study adopted the “USDA SCS” method to account for rainwater losses,estimates
cannot entirely compensate for the soil moisture depletion, the model and thus
the required
effective irrigation that can compensate for the rest of the soil moisture depletion. This
rainfall.
present study adopted the “USDA SCS” method to account for rainwater losses, and thus
effective rainfall.
The CROPWAT model estimates show that there will be an increase in irrigation re-
quirements in the study area for most future periods, compared to the 2018 growing sea-
son (Figure 10). The current study’s findings are consistent with the reported literature;
 for example, Ding et al. [36] reported that future climatic changes would increase irriga-
tion requirements in most regions of the mid and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
As shown in the figure, remarkable increases in future irrigation requirements are
projected to occur under the RCP85 scenario. This may be due to the high evapotranspi-
ration values, alongside the existence of many rainfall events after the end of the growing
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 season (Figure 8), based on the here-adopted growing dates in the study area, which de- 10 of 16
prives the soil of large amounts of rainwater during the growing season.

Figure CROPWATestimates
9.CROPWAT
Figure 9. estimates
for for future
future dailydaily evapotranspiration
evapotranspiration values values in the
in the study study
area, area, under
under
RCP45 and
RCP45 andRCP85.
RCP85.

The CROPWAT model estimates show that there will be an increase in irrigation
requirements in the study area for most future periods, compared to the 2018 growing
season (Figure 10). The current study’s findings are consistent with the reported literature;
for example, Ding et al. [36] reported that future climatic changes would increase irrigation
requirements in most regions of the mid and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
As shown in the figure, remarkable increases in future irrigation requirements are pro-
jected to occur under the RCP85 scenario. This may be due to the high evapotranspiration
values, alongside the existence of many rainfall events after the end of the growing season
(Figure 8), based on the here-adopted growing dates in the study area, which deprives the
soil of large amounts of rainwater during the growing season.
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 17
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 11 of 16

Figure 10. Future

Figure 10. Future changes in irrigation
changes in irrigation requirements
requirements for
for the
the rice-growing
rice-growing season
season in
in the
the study
studyarea,
area,
under
under RCP45
RCP45 and
and RCP85,
RCP85,compared
comparedto tothe
the2018–2019
2018–2019season,
season,asaspredicted
predictedbybythe
theCROPWAT
CROPWAT model.
model.
3.2.3. Surface Storage Capacity: A Potential Tool to Cope with Climate Changes by
Mitigating Future Rainwater Losses, Thus the Future Increase in Irrigation
3.2.3. Surface Storage
Requirements. Capacity:
CROPWAT A Potential
Simulations underTool to Cope
Different with Climate
Scenarios of Changes by Miti-
gating Future
Surface StorageRainwater
CapacitiesLosses, Thus the Future Increase in Irrigation Requirements.
CROPWAT
This section aims tounder
Simulations Different
provide a betterScenarios of Surface
understanding Storage
of how Capacities
to employ the Surface
This
Storage section to
Capacity aims to utilize
better provide a better
future understanding
rainwater, of how tothe
thereby mitigating employ
futurethe Surface
increase in
Storage Capacity
irrigation to better
requirements utilize
caused byfuture rainwater,
the projected thereby
climatic mitigating the future increase
changes.
in irrigation
Figure 11requirements caused byofthe
shows the frequency projected
future peak climatic changes.
precipitation events in the study area,
under Figure
RCP45,11 alongside
shows thethe frequency of futureinpeak
daily depletion soil precipitation
saturation as events in the
predicted by study area,
the CROP-
undermodel.
WAT RCP45, alongside the daily depletion in soil saturation as predicted by the CROP-
WATFurthermore,
model. Figure 11 clarifies that rainfall events, especially the peak ones, help to
increase soil moisture, and thus decrease the depletion in soil saturation, which in turn
results in decreasing irrigation requirements. The rainfall pattern and future irrigation
requirements have a strong relationship. As a result, many researchers have reported some
techniques to most effectively utilize rainwater in order to mitigate future increases in
irrigation requirements. For example, Yoon and Choi [37] found that shifting the future
growing season dates to the days with more precipitation events has a great effect on
decreasing future irrigation requirements, due to the better utilization of rainwater.
However, if several peak rainfall events happen consecutively and the soil is already
saturated or partially saturated, there is a great possibility of losing a large portion of
rainwater in the runoff if the field cannot trap the rainwater in its surface depression zones.
This, in turn, will deprive the soil of this lost portion of rainwater that could (if not lost)
compensate for the soil moisture depletion, and thus reduce the need for irrigation. This
clarifies why it is better, regarding the irrigation requirements, to mitigate future rainwater
losses through runoff.

Figure 11. Future frequency of peak precipitation events in the study area under RCP45, alongside
the response in soil saturation depletion to these events. Note: Bars indicate the depletion in soil
moisture, while dots indicate the frequency of peak precipitation events.
 This section aims to provide a better understanding of how to employ the Surface
Storage Capacity to better utilize future rainwater, thereby mitigating the future increase
in irrigation requirements caused by the projected climatic changes.
Figure 11 shows the frequency of future peak precipitation events in the study area,
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 under RCP45, alongside the daily depletion in soil saturation as predicted by the CROP- 12 of 16
WAT model.

Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 17

Furthermore, Figure 11 clarifies that rainfall events, especially the peak ones, help to
increase soil moisture, and thus decrease the depletion in soil saturation, which in turn
results in decreasing irrigation requirements. The rainfall pattern and future irrigation re-
quirements have a strong relationship. As a result, many researchers have reported some
techniques to most effectively utilize rainwater in order to mitigate future increases in
irrigation requirements. For example, Yoon and Choi [37] found that shifting the future
growing season dates to the days with more precipitation events has a great effect on de-
creasing future irrigation requirements, due to the better utilization of rainwater.
However, if several peak rainfall events happen consecutively and the soil is already
saturated or partially saturated, there is a great possibility of losing a large portion of
rainwater in the runoff if the field cannot trap the rainwater in its surface depression
zones.
FigureThis,
Figure in turn,
Future
11.Future
11. will deprive
frequency
frequency of peak
of peak the soil ofevents
thisevents
precipitation
precipitation lost portion
in the in of rainwater
the area
study study areaRCP45,
under underthat couldalongside
RCP45,
alongside (if not
lost)
the compensate
the response for
response ininsoil
soil the soildepletion
saturation
saturation moisture depletion,
to these
depletion events.
to these and
Note:thus
events. reduce
Bars indicate
Note: thedepletion
the
Bars indicate need
the for
in irrigation.
soil
depletion in soil
moisture, while dots it
This clarifies
moisture, why
while dotsindicate the frequency
is better,
indicate theregardingof peak
frequency the
of precipitation
irrigation
peak events.
requirements,
precipitation events. to mitigate future
rainwater losses through runoff.
Figure
Figure 1212 shows
shows CROPWAT
CROPWAT estimates
estimates for future
for future seasonal
seasonal rainwater
rainwater losseslosses
in the inrun-the
offrunoff
(as % (as % of
of the theseasonal
total total seasonal
rainfall)rainfall) under RCP45.
under RCP45. To overcomeTo overcome and mitigate
and mitigate such future such
future rainwater losses in the runoff, the CROPWAT model
rainwater losses in the runoff, the CROPWAT model was rerun after increasing the Sur- was rerun after increasing
theStorage
face SurfaceCapacity
Storage in Capacity
the study in the
areastudy
by 50% areaandby100%50% ofandits 100%
baselineof its baseline
value (5 cm). value
In
(5 cm). In addition, Figure 12 shows that increasing the surface storage capacity will help
addition, Figure 12 shows that increasing the surface storage capacity will help to signifi-
to significantly mitigate future rainwater losses in the runoff. During some future periods,
cantly mitigate future rainwater losses in the runoff. During some future periods, increas-
increasing the Surface Storage Capacity by 50% of its baseline value resulted in a decrease
ing the Surface Storage Capacity by 50% of its baseline value resulted in a decrease (up to
(up to more than 50%) in future rainwater losses through runoff, compared to those at the
more than 50%) in future rainwater losses through runoff, compared to those at the base-
baseline Surface Storage Capacity.
line Surface Storage Capacity.
50
Baseline surface depression capacity
45 50% increase in surface depression capacity
(as % of total seasonal rainfall)

100% increase in surface depression capacity

40
Seasonal rainwater losses

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2026–2030 2031–2035 2036–2040 2041–2045

Figure 12. CROPWAT estimates for future seasonal rainwater losses, under RCP45, in the study area
Figure 12. CROPWAT estimates for future seasonal rainwater losses, under RCP45, in the study
(as % of the total seasonal rainfall).
area (as % of the total seasonal rainfall).
The future mitigation of rainwater losses via increasing the Surface Storage Capacity
The futureto
is supposed mitigation
result in of rainwater
more losses
available via increasing
rainwater in thethe Surface
land. ThisStorage Capacity
rainwater would
is compensate
supposed tofor result in more available
the depletion rainwater
in soil moisture in thesome
during land.periods,
This rainwater
and thuswould com-
decrease the
pensate for the depletion in soil moisture during some periods, and thus decrease
irrigation requirements. The CROPWAT simulations confirm these suppositions. Figure 13 the ir-
rigation
shows requirements. The CROPWAT
the resultant saving simulations
in future irrigation confirm these
requirements suppositions.
after Figure
increasing the 13
Surface
shows the resultant saving in future irrigation requirements after increasing the Surface
Storage Capacity. The results from the present study are consistent with several studies,
such as Stern et al. [38], in which it was reported that soil surface treatments could help in
decreasing runoff, thus in the better utilization of irrigation water and increasing the crop
yield.
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 13 of 16

Storage Capacity. The results from the present study are consistent with several studies,
such as Stern et al. [38], in which it was reported that soil surface treatments could help
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 17
in decreasing runoff, thus in the better utilization of irrigation water and increasing
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 17 the
crop yield.

2041–2045
2041–2045

2036–2040
2036–2040

100% increase in surface storage capacity

2031–2035
100% increase in surface storage capacity
2031–2035 50% increase in surface storage capacity
50% increase in surface storage capacity

2026–2030
2026–2030

0 5 10 15 20
0Resultant future 5saving in irigation
10requirements (IRs)
15 in the study 20
Resultant
area future saving
after increasing in irigation
surface requirements
storage capacity (S) by (IRs)
50 andin100
the %,
study
as
area after increasing
% ofsurface storage
IRs under the capacity
baseline (S)
(S) by 50 and 100 %, as
% of IRs under the baseline (S)
Figure13.
Figure CROPWAT
13.CROPWAT simulations
simulations forresultant
for the the resultant
futurefuture
saving saving in irrigation
in irrigation requirements
requirements (IRs) (IRs)
Figure
after
after 13. CROPWAT
increasing
increasing thethe simulations
Surface
Surface Storage for the
Storage resultant
Capacity
Capacity future
underunder
RCP45; savingrepresented
RCP45; in irrigation
represented requirements
as %
as % of IRs of IRs
at the at(IRs)
the baseline
baseline
after increasing
Surface
Surface Storage the Surface Storage Capacity under RCP45; represented as % of IRs at the baseline
Capacity.
Storage Capacity.
Surface Storage Capacity.
The
Thesamesame trend
trendwas observed
was observed under RCP85,
under wherewhere
RCP85, peak precipitation events con-
peak precipitation events con-
tributedThe sameintrend was observed under RCP85, where
deficitpeak precipitation events con-
tributedmuch much compensating
in compensating for the soil
for themoisture
soil moisture (Figure
deficit14). Additionally,
(Figure in-
14). Additionally,
tributedthe
creasing much in compensating
surface storage capacityfor the soilRCP85
under moisture deficit (Figure
significantly 14). Additionally,
mitigated future rainwa- in-
increasing the surface storage capacity under RCP85 significantly mitigated future rainwa-
creasing
ter thethe
losses in surface
study storage capacity
area (Figure 15). under
DuringRCP85 significantly
some future periods,mitigated
the increasefuture rainwa-
in surface
ter
ter losses
losses inthe
in thestudy
study area
area (Figure
(Figure 15).15). During
During somesome
future future periods,
periods, the increase in surface
storage capacity will result in “ZERO” future rainwater losses in the the increase
runoff, in surface
reflecting the
storage
storage
best
capacity
capacity
utilization
will
of will
result
result in
rainwater,
in “ZERO”
“ZERO”
thus
future
futurefuture
decreasing
rainwater
rainwater losses in
lossesrequirements.
irrigation
the runoff, reflecting
in the runoff, reflecting the the
best
best utilization
utilization ofofrainwater,
rainwater, thus
thus decreasing
decreasing future
future irrigation
irrigation requirements.
requirements.

Figure 14. Future frequency of peak precipitation events in the study area under RCP85, alongside
Figure
the
Figure 14.
14. Future
response in soilfrequency
Future saturation
frequency ofdepletion
peak precipitation
of peak to events
these events.
precipitation in theBars
Note:
events study
in area
indicate
the studyunder
the RCP85,
depletion
area underinalongside
soil alongside
RCP85,
the response in soil saturation depletion to these events. Note: Bars indicate theindepletion
the response
moisture, while in soil
dots saturation
indicate thedepletion
frequencyto these
of events.
peak Note:
precipitation Bars indicate
events the depletion soil in soil
moisture, while dots indicate the frequency of peak precipitation events
moisture, while dots indicate the frequency of peak precipitation events.
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 17
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 14 of 16

50
Baseline surface depression
45
capacity

(as % of total seasonal rainfall)

40 50% increase in surface

Seasonal rainwater losses

depression capacity
35
100% increase in surface
30 depression capacity
25

20
15
10

5
0
2026–2030 2031–2035 2036–2040 2041–2045

Figure
Figure 15.15. CROPWATestimates
CROPWAT estimatesfor
forfuture
future seasonal
seasonal rainwater
rainwater losses,
losses,under
underRCP85,
RCP85,inin
thethe
study area
study
(as% of the total seasonal rainfall).
area (as% of the total seasonal rainfall).
4. Conclusions
4. Conclusions
The projected climatic changes at the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin will
The projected climatic changes at the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin will
increase future irrigation requirements (by up to 15% and 65%, compared to the 2018
increase
season,future
underirrigation
RCP45 and requirements (by up to 15%with
RCP85, respectively), andthe
65%, comparedoftothreatening
possibility the 2018 sea- the
son, under RCP45 and RCP85, respectively), with the possibility of threatening
quality of adjacent water bodies due to the rainwater runoff from these lands. The present the quality
of study
adjacentaimswater bodieswhether
to assess due to the rainwater
farmers runoff from
can self-adapt these
their lands. The
farmlands present changes
to climate study
aims to assess whether farmers can self-adapt their farmlands to
through simple practices, thereby mitigating climate change’s adverse impacts on these climate changes through
simple practices,
farmlands while thereby mitigating
also protecting theclimate
quality change’s adverse
of adjacent water impacts
bodies.on these farmlands
while also protecting the quality of adjacent water bodies.
CROPWAT simulations show that increasing Surface Storage Capacity (SSC) (by 50%
andCROPWAT
100% of itssimulations show which
baseline value), that increasing Surface
is a simple Storage
act for farmers Capacity
in the (SSC)
study (by 50%
area, will
and 100%future
reduce of its rainwater
baseline value),
runoff which
by up to is 76%
a simple act for
and 100% farmers
(for in the study
a 50% increase area,
in SSC) and will
53%
reduce future
and 100% rainwater
(for runoff by
a 100% increase in up
SSC)tounder
76% and 100%
RCP45 and(for a 50%respectively.
RCP85, increase in SSC)CROPWATand
53% and 100% (for
simulations alsoarevealed
100% increase
that thein SSC) undermitigation
resultant RCP45 and inRCP85,
future respectively.
rainwater runoffCROP- will
WATmitigate the future increase in irrigation requirements; e.g., up to about 11% andrunoff
simulations also revealed that the resultant mitigation in future rainwater 16% of
will mitigate
future the future
irrigation increase will
requirements in irrigation
be savedrequirements;
under RCP45 e.g.,whenupincreasing
to about 11% andby
the SSC 16%50%
of and
future
100% irrigation requirements
of its baseline will be saved under RCP45 when increasing the SSC by
value, respectively.
50% and 100% of its
Therefore, baselinefarmers
educating value, onrespectively.
how to adjust the level of their farmland’s boundaries
Therefore,
according educating
to the weatherfarmers
forecaston canhow to adjust help
significantly the level of theirfuture
to mitigate farmland’s bounda-
rainwater runoff,
ries according
thus decreasing to the weather
irrigation forecast canand
requirements significantly
preservinghelp to mitigate
the quality futurewater
of adjacent rainwater
bodies.
runoff, The
thuspresent
decreasing irrigation
study’s results requirements and preserving
confirm the potential the quality
role of increasing of adjacent
farmers’ wa-
awareness,
teranbodies.
underutilized approach, in reducing the aggravation of climate change’s adverse impacts
The present
in farmlands study’s
and results confirm
the surrounding the potential
environment, thusrole
alsoof increasing
easing farmers’
adaptation aware-
policies.
ness, an underutilized approach, in reducing the aggravation of climate change’s adverse
AuthorinContributions:
impacts farmlands and Methodology,
the surrounding W.L. and A.A.; software,
environment, thusA.A.alsoand M.E.-S.G.;
easing supervision,
adaptation pol-
W.L.; writing—original draft, A.A.; writing—review and editing, W.L., M.E.-R., N.A.-A., A.E. and
icies.
H.N.F. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Author Contributions:
Funding: Methodology,
This research W.L. andfunding.
received no external A.A.; software, A.A. and M.E.-S.G.; supervision,
W.L.; writing—original draft, A.A.; writing—review and editing, W.L., M.E.-R., N.A.-A., A.E. and
Institutional
H.N.F. Review
All authors have Board agreed toNot
Statement:
read and theapplicable.
published version of the manuscript.
Informed
Funding: Consent
This Statement:
research Not
received no applicable.
external funding.
Data Availability
Institutional ReviewStatement: Not applicable.
Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Not applicable.
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11802 15 of 16

Acknowledgments: The authors would like to express their sincere appreciation to all of Luo’s
lab members, College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Yangzhou University, for
their continuous help. Thanks extend to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments
and suggestions.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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