A STUDY OF ROAD TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN SELECTED

CORRIDORS OF METROPOLITAN LAGOS

BY

W
IE
ODELEYE, Joshua Adetunji
EV
PR

BEING A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE

STUDIES OF THE UNIVERSITY OF LAGOS IN PARTIAL FULFILMENTS OF
THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF
PHILOSOPHY IN THE DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY, SCHOOL OF
POSTGRADUATE STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF LAGOS, AKOKA, LAGOS,
NIGERIA.

MARCH, 2008
 SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES
UNIVERSITY OF LAGOS
»
c^ificwnoK
This is to certify that the Thesis:

"A STUDY OF ROAD TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN SELECTED

CORRIDORS OF METROPOLITAN LAGOS”
Submitted to the
School of Postgraduate Studies
University of Lagos

For the award of the degree of

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (Ph. D)
is a record of original research carried out

W
By
ODELEYE, JOSHUA ADETUNJI
in the Department of Geography
IE
EV

AUTHOR’S NAME SI TURE

?&■ 73 A- AM Leïw
1st SUPERVISOR’S NAME SIGNATURE
PR

2nd SUPERVISOR’S NAME SIGNATURE DATE

3rd SUPERVISOR’S NAME SIGNATURE DATE

1st internal examiner GNATURE DATE

hot UuikoeiM
2nd internal examiner SIGNATURE DATE

EXTERNAL EXAMINER SIGN RE DATE

W- P^-
SPGS REPRESENTATIVE SIGNATURE DATE
 DEDICATION

This work is dedicated to my late parents:

Pa Isaac Oladipupo Odeleye

(He taught me humility)

and

Madam Victoria Adunola Odeleye

(She inspired my interest in Western Education)

and

W
IE All my teachers
EV
PR
 I ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I give thanks to the Almighty God, for given me good health and understanding to complete
this programme successfully.

I
In the first instance, I will like to appreciate the commitment and sincerity of purpose of my
supervisors viz Prof. I. A. Adalemo, Dr. S. 1. Oni and Dr. A. S. Omojola. I am indeed grateful
to Prof. I. A. Adalemo for his support, comments and fatherly advice at all times. His words
of encouragement always soothing my heart and keep me going in the course of this program.
Again, I will be forever indebted to Dr. S. I. Oni, who fired and nurtured my interest in
Geography right from my secondary school days till this present moment. His mentoring
styles have also been of great help to me socially and academically. Furthermore, I am indeed
grateful to Dr. A. S. Omojola for his comments on my thesis as well as his contributions to
my work during the departmental and P.G. School Seminars. Moreover, I will forever

W
remember my series of “6th floor corridor” encounters with him, in which he always advised
me to braze up and finish the programme on time.
IE
।
I also thank all the academic and non-academic staff in the department for their contributions,
comments and encouragement. The list includes Prof J.O Akintola-Arikawe, Prof. D. A.
EV

Oyeleye, Prof. Y. Balogun, Prof. O. Oyebande, Prof .0. Ojo, Dr. Tunji Babatola, Dr. Feyi
Oni, Mr T. Ogunkunle Dr. A. S. O. Soneye, Dr. Balogun, Dr Uluocha, Dr. A. Abu, G. Ekop,
Dr. Segun Adeaga, Mr Johnson, Miss Titilayo and others . -
PR

Again, I will like to acknowledge the contributions of my fellow Ph.D. students in the
department, to the successful completion of this programme. The intimacy I shared and
enjoyed with the following colleagues: Messrs E. E. Ege, Charles Asenime, Vincent Olatunji,
Kayode Olagunju, Miss Kemi Okanlawon, Miss Kemi Efunsade, Dr. Vide Anosike, Dr
Mayowa Fashona, Dr Shakirudeen Odunuga and Mr Alex Uriri, assisted me in overcoming
some of the vicissitudes of this programme.

In the course of this programme, I had the opportunities of traveling across the world. This
availed me the opportunity of meeting and learning from some of the world renowned
academics in my area of specialization — Transportation; viz Prof. John Adams of Geography
Department, University of London, Prof. Stanley A. Morain of Remote Sensing Centre,
University of New Mexico, USA, Prof Dinesh Mohan and Prof Geetam Tiwari both of
Transport Research and Injury Prevention Program (TRIPP) at India Institute of Technology,
New Delhi, India. Others include Prof. Werner Rothengather (immediate past President of
World Conference on Transport Research Society WCTRS) of Universitat Karlsruhe,
Germany; Prof. Ahrens., Prof. Udo J. Becker and Dr. R. Baur all of Chair of Transportation,
Civil Engineering Department Technical University of Dresden, Germany to mention a few.
Again, I cannot but mention Prof. Elizabeth Deakin of University of California
Transportation Centre (UCTC), Berkeley, who facilitated my visit to the Centre, and
participation in the 2007 World Congress of the Transport Research Society (WCTRS)

International Conference in Berkeley, California, USA.

Back home, I will like to appreciate the contributions of the following erudite scholars of
Transportation to my work: Prof. A.A Ogunsanya of Geography Department, University of
Ilorin; Professor Tayo Odumosu of Geography and Planning Department of Lagos State

W
University, Uagos; Prof K. Oyesiku of Tai Solarin University of Education (TASUED),
Ijebu-Ode; Prof. Bamidele Badejo of Geography Department of Olabisi Onabanjo University,
IE
Ago-Iwoye; Prof. B. Oghojafor of Business Administration Department, University of Lagos;
Dr G. T. Arosanyin of Economics Department, University of Ilorin, and Prof. S O
Onakomaiya (formerly of the Geography Department, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-
EV

lwoye), who supervised my Masters dissertation.

Furthermore, I will like to acknowledge the kind support of the management team of
PR

Nigerian Institute of Transport Technology (NITT), Zaria, from the beginning to the end of
this programme. As a result, I will like to thank specially my Director-General/CEO (Dr
Ibrahim Vandu-Chikolo) and other members of management namely Dr. A. G. Sumaila, Mr.
Bojuwoye, Mallam A.Y. Yusuf and J. S. Jimada. I also thank my senior colleagues and
contemporaries in the office, among this group are Dr. A. 0. Odumosu, Dr J. A. Ojekunle,
and Messrs IS. B. Akintayo, Femi Jemirin, Bayera. S. Farah and Maina Tarfa. Others include
my staff in the Lagos office viz: Mr Abdul Hakeem Badru, Daniel Akpan, Yinka Aina and

Mrs Toyin Arokoyo.

v
Also, I will I like to acknowledge the contributions in kind of some of my friends and well
wishers, who helped in proof reading, word processing, mapping and graphic designing in
this work. Their words of advice and encouragement also prompted me never to look back.
They include Dr A. Mustapha, LASU; Mr C.A Okusanya; Mr Obiora Madu, Mr Dada, Mr
Adeniyi and Mr Adeshina Olaoye; Miss Christy Akpan. I also thank some of my friends and
family members, among whom are Messrs Leye Olatunbosun, Ayo Fatudimu, Peter Odeleye,
Kunie Odeleye; Biyi Odeleye, Mr and Mrs Ola Anifowose, and Mr and Mrs A. Adebiyi, Mr
Kunie Opesan who have at one time or the other supported me financially and/or in kind, in
the course of my aspiration to attain the present academic status.

Lastly, I will like to thank my wife, Mrs Funmi Odeleye, and children Seye, Ayomide, Folake
and Hannah for their patience, doggedness, and fervent prayers while the programme lasted.

Once again, I give all glory to the Almighty God.

W
IE
EV
PR
 । TABLE OF CONTENTS

| Page(s)

Cover Page i
Certification "
Dedication "I
Acknowledgement iv
Table of Contents V"
List of Tables xiii
List of Figures xv
List of Plates xvii
Appendices . xviii
Abstract xix

W
CHAPTER ON E 1
1 .0 BACKGROUND OF STUDY 1
IE
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Research Problem 4
EV

1.3 Research Questions 7

IA Justification of Study 8
1.5 Aim and Objectives 9
1.6 The Study Area 9
PR

1.7 Conclusion

CHAPTER TW O 18
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 18
2.1 Introduction 18
2.2 Theoretical/Conceptual Framework 18
2.2.1 Down’s Law 18
2.2.2 “Predict and Provide”, “Predict andPrevent” 19
2.2.3 Traffic Equilibrium Theory 20
2.2.4 Concept of and Approaches in Road Traffic Congestion
Management 22
2.2.5 Road Traffic Congestion Models 33
2.3 Literature Review
2.3.1 The Historical Antecedent of Road Traffic Congestion in Cities 33
2.3.2 The Characteristics and Dimension of Road Traffic
■ Congestion in Lagos 34
2.3 j3 Road Traffic Congestion Causal Factors in Metropolitan Lagos 35
2.3.4 Institutional Issues in Road Traffic Congestion Management
1 in Lagos 36
2.3.5 Contemporary Global Knowledge of Road Traffic Congestion 37
2.4 Conclusion 44

CHAPTER THREE 46

3.0 THE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 46

3.1 Introduction 46
46

W
3.2 Types of Data used
3.3 Sources of Data 47

3.4 Data Collection Strategies . 47

IE
3.4.1 Questionnaire Administration 47

3.4/2 Observatory Survey 48

EV

3.4.3 Focus Group Discussion 48

3.4.4 Participants’ Observer Technique 50

3.4.^5 Secondary Data 50

3.5 Method of Analysis 51

PR

3.5.|1 Congestion Pattern Measurement 51

3.5.2 Building Traffic Performance Indicator Hexagon 52

3.5.3 Institutional Analysis 52

3.5.4 Traffic Congestion Prediction Method 53

3.6 Geographic Information System (GIS) 54

3.7 Projection of Road Traffic Congestion in Metropolitan Lagos 54

3.8 Conclusion 55

viii
CHAPTER FOUR 56
4.0 COMMUTERS PERCEPTIONS OF ROAD TRAFFIC
CONGESTION IN METROPOLITAN LAGOS 56
4.1 Introduction 56
4.2 The Socio-Economic Characteristics of Respondents 56
4.3 Age Distribution of Respondents 57
4.4 Occupational Characteristics of Respondents 58
4.5 Residential locations of respondents 58
4.6 Car Ownership among Respondents 59
4.7 Commuters Travel Distance 59
4.8 Road Traffic Congestion Causative Factors 60
4.9 Traffic Congestion Prone Period in Metropolitan Lagos 62
4.10 Travel Time on selected corridors of Metropolitan Lagos 62
4.11 Commuters Coping Strategies in Traffic Congestion in Lagos 64

W
4.12 Alternative Routes as Coping Strategy on Congested Corridors 67
4.13 Health Implications of Traffic Congestion on Commuters in Lagos 68
IE
4.14 Respondents’ Perception of Traffic Light in Effective Traffic Managements
4.15 Respondents’ Perception of Preferred Policy Options 71
EV

4.16 Pol icy issues in Road Traffic Congestion Management in Lagos 74

4.17 Behavioural Assessment of Road Users in Traffic Congestion in
1
Metropolitan Lagos 75
4.18 : Solution to Non-Compliance withTraffic Rules 76
PR

4.19 Respondents performance evaluationof Traffic Law Enforcement

Agents in Lagos 76
4.20 Conclusion 78

j
i ix
CHAPTER FI VE 79
5,0 TRAFFIC COMPOSITION OF LAGOS SELECTED CORRIDORS 79
5.1 Introduction 79
5.2 Annual Vehicles Registration Pattern in Lagos 1999-2005 80
5.3 Car Traffic Dominance of Selected Lagos Corridors 81
5.4 Road Traffic Congestion and the Average Number of Vehicles Available
to 1000/People in Lagos 83
5.5 Traffic Density and Flow Pattern in Metropolitan Lagos 86
5.6 Conclusion 87

CHAPTER SI X 88
6.0 ROAD TRAFFIC CONGESTION PATTERN ON SELECTED LAGOS
CORRIDORS 88
6.1 Introduction 88

W
6.2 Thé Traffic Density Variation on Selected Lagos Roads 88
6.3 Hierarchy of Road Traffic Congestion on Selected Roads 89
IE
6.4 Spatial Pattern of Road Traffic Bottlenecks in Metropolitan Lagos 93
6.5 In-Vehicle Drivers/Commuters Congestion Discussions 96
EV

6.6 Incident and Accident Management Problem 98

6.7 Freight Nodal Points, Truck Traffic and Traffic Congestion in
Metropolitan Lagos 99
6.8 Vehicular Traffic flow and Pedestrian traffic situation at peak periods
PR

along the selected corridors in Metropolitan Lagos 100

6.9 Conclusion

CHAPTER SEVEN 102

7.0 ROAD TRANSPORT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS IN TRAFFIC
MANAGEMENT IN LAGOS 102
7.1 Introduction .102
7.2 Road Transport Policy in Metropolitan Lagos 103
7.3 Traffic Management Institutions in Lagos 104
7.3.1 Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA) 104
7.3.2 LAMATA in Urban Transport Planning in Lagos 104
7.3.3 Allied Traffic Management Agencies in Metropolitan Lagos 105
 7.4 The Multiplicity of Traffic Management Institutions in Lagos 108
7.5 Operational Activities of LASTMA and LAMATA in Metropolitan Lagos 109
7.511 Overview of LASTMA Operation (2001 -2002) 111
7.5.2 LAMATA Operational activities 113
7.6 Conclusion 115

CHAPTER EIGHT H6
8.0 ROAD TRAFFIC INFRASTRUCTURE AUDIT, LAND USE
CHARACTERISTICS AND STAKEHOLDERS ASSESSMENT OF
ROAD TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT IN METROPOLITAN LAGOS 116
8.1 Introduction 116
8.2 Land Use Characteristics of the immediate Environment of selected
Corridors 116
8.3 Qualitative Analysis of Zonal Variation in Traffic Congestion Causal

W
Factors in Metropolitan Lagos 118
8.4 Road Traffic Infrastructure Audit on Selected Lagos Corridors 122
IE
8.5 Qualitative Analysis of Commercial Vehicles Operators Perception of
Road Traffic Congestion in Metropolitan Lagos. 125
EV

8.6 Performance Evaluation of Traffic Management in Lagos 2002 and 2005 132
8.7 Analysis of Relevance of Traffic Management Institutions in
Metropolitan Lagos 134
8.8 The Need for a Paradigm Shift in the Establishment of Road Traffic
PR

Planning and Management Institution in Metropolitan Lagos 134

8.9 Model for the Establishment of a Mega Traffic Planning and
Management Authority in Metropolitan Lagos 137
8.10 The Challenges of a New Mega Traffic Management Agency in
Metropolitan Lagos 138
8.11 Conclusion 141

CHAPTER NINE 142

9.0 ROAD TRAFFIC CONGESTION PROJECTION IN METROPOLITAN
LAGOS UNDER “BUSINESS AS USUAL (BAU)” SCENARIO. 142
9.1 Introduction 142
9.2 Computation of Future Vehicular Volume Growth 144
 9.3 Towards a Sustainable Urban Transport Planning in Metropolitan Lagos 146
9.4 Sustainable Public Transport Development in Developing Countries
148
9.5 Sustainable model for improved accessibility in Metropolitan Lagos
150
9.6 Road Traffic Congestion and Urban Space Management
152
9.7 Car Traffic Problem in Road Traffic Congestion Growth Trend:
Case for BRT in Metropolitan Lagos
155
9.8 Conclusion
156

CHAPTER TEN
157
10.0 SUMMARY, FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND
CONCLUSION
157
10.1 Introduction
157
10.2 Summary of Study -
157
10.3 Research Findings
159

W
10.4 Contributions to Knowledge
163
10.5 Importance of Study
164
10.6 Implication of Findings
IE 165
10.7 Prognosis/Planning Implication of Findings
166
10.8 Recommendations
167
EV

10.8.1 Short Term Strategies

167
10.8.2 Long-Term Strategies
174
10.9 Suggestions For Future Academic Works
188
10.9.1 Bus Rapid Transit
PR

188
10.9.2 Road Pricing
188
10.9.3 Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) 189
10.10 General Conclusion
189

REFERENCES
APPENDICES

xii
 LIST OF TABLES

Table LI: ' Projected Populations of Megacities with a Population of more than
- Ten Million by 2015 2
Table L2: Total Length of Roads in Lagos State
Table 1.3: List of some of the Federal Government Roads by Local Government
Areas in Lagos
Table 2.1: ' Standardized Road Traffic Volume 32

Table 4.1: Travel Time Duration on Selected Metropolitan Lagos Corridors 64

Table 4.2: : ANO VA Test of respondents’ wake-up time according to socio- economic
characteristics
66
Table 4.3: ANOVA Test ofperceived health implications of congestion according
to respondents socio-economic characteristics. gg

W
Table 4.4: ANOVA Test of Respondents’ Preference for Traffic Light. 71
Table 4.5: ANOVA Test of respondents’ preferred policy options. 73
Table 4.6: Respondents level of Apprehension of Traffic Law 74
IE
Table 4.7: Reasons for Non-Compliance with rules by Road Users 74
Table 4.8: Solution to Non-compliance with Traffic Rules 75
EV

Table 5.1: Total Number of Newly Registered Vehicles and Renewed Vehicles
Licenses in Lagos State 1999 - 2005 79
Table 5.2:
PR

Nigerian Economy Growth Trend and Projection 82

Table 5.3: Average Vehicles Availability per 000 people in Lagos 35

Table 6.1: 12-Hours Traffic Count on Selected Roads in Metropolitan Lagos 89

Table 6.2: The Hierarchy of Road Traffic Congestion on selected Lagos roads. 90
Table 6.3: Vehicular traffic volume and geometric dimension of selected Lagos corridors
.92
Table 6.4: The correlation matrix of lanes and width of selected roads and
Congestion pattern in selected Lagos corridors. 93
Table 6.5: Types of “DUES” being collected by Touts on Highways in
Metropolitan Lagos. 95
 Table 7.1: LASTMA Zonal Traffic Management Offices
104

Y Table 8.1: | Land Use Pattern and Traffic Congestion along Selected Lagos Corridors 117
Table 8.2: 1 Analysis of Zonal Variation in Traffic Congestion Causal Factors in
। Metropolitan Lagos
120
Table 8.3: Road Traffic Infrastructure Audit on Selected Lagos Corridors
123
Table 8.4: : Commercial Vehicles Operators Assessment of Road Traffic Congestion
1 in Metropolitan Lagos.
126
Table 8.5: : Sustainable Transport Policy Benchmark of Traffic Management
Institutions in Metropolitan Lagos.
133
Table 8.6: Traffic Management Techniques for Critical Traffic Points in
' Metropolitan Lagos
139

Table 9.1: , Computation of future Vehicular Volume Growth Rate for Future Traffic

W
■ Prediction in Lagos
143
Table 9.2: । Growth Rate Trend in GDP Population and Newly Registered Vehicles 144
Table 9.3: Planning Processes for Sustainable Urban Transport
IE 151
EV
PR

xiv
 LIST OF FIGURES

Fig IA - Vicious Circle of Urban Degradation

5
Fig 1.2: Administrative Map of Metropolitan Lagos
11

Fig 2.1 : The Land Use Transport Cycle.

29

Fig 4.1: Gender characteristics of respondents

57
Fig 4.2: Age of Respondents
57
Fig 4.3: Respondents Occupation
58
Fig 4.4: Respondents residential Locations
59
Fig 4.5: Car Ownership among Respondents
59
Fig 4.6: Travel Distance Among respondents
60
Fig 4.7: Respondents perception of congestion causative factors in Lagos
61

W
Fig 4.8: Traffic Peak Periods on Lagos Roads
62
Fig 4.9: Commuters perception of Travel Time to Work
63
IE
Fig 4.10: Wake-up time and Congestion in Study Area 65
Fig. 4.1 L: Alternative routes as commuters coping strategy on congested corridors
67
EV

Fig 4.12: Commuters Perceived Health Implications of Congestion 68

Fig 4.13: Preference for Traffic Light
70
Fig 4.14: Commuters Choice of Public Transport Options 72
Fig 4.15: Respondents Behavioural Assessment of Road Users in Traffic Congestion
PR

in Metropolitan Lagos 75
Fig 4.16: Respondents Performance Evaluation of Traffic Law Enforcement
Agents in Lagos. . 77
i
Fig 5.1: Comparative Analysis of Newly Registered Vehicles and Renewed
Vehicles Licences in Lagos State 1999 - 2005 80
Fig 5.2: Percentage of Cars in Total Vehicular Volume in Metropolitan Lagos 81
Fig. 5.3: Predominance of cars in Lagos Traffic 83
Fig. 5.4: Trend of Newly Registered Motorcycles in Lagos State (1995-2005) 84

Fig 6.1: ;Road Traffic Congestion Pattern along Selected corridors of Lagos.
91

XV
 Fig 6.2: Spatial Pattern of road Traffic Bottleneck on Lagos Roads 94
Fig. 7.1 : Road Traffic Congestion Management and Institutional Arrangement

]07
Fig 7.2: Traffic Offence Types and Road Traffic Congestion in Metropolitan Lagos 110
Fig. 7.3: Total Revenue realised by LASTMA from fines in various Zones m
Fig. 7.4: Number of Traffic Offences Committed in Metropolitan Lagos (2001-2002) 112
Fig. 7.5: Number of Towed Vehicles by type of Ownership 2001 -2002 113

Fig. 8.1: Stakeholders' Assessment of Level of Improvements in Traffic Management

in Metropolitan Lagos
Fig 8.2: Proposed Organogram of a Mega-Traffic Planning and Management
Authority in Lagos.

Fig 9.1: Projected Annual Vehicular Volume 1999-2012

143

W
Fig 9.2: Comparative GDP Population and Newly Registered Vehicles Growth
Rate Trend
145
Fig. 9.3: Sustainable Transport Solutions
IE 146
Fig. 9.4: Three Pillars of Sustainable Mobility
147
EV

Fig 10.1: Proposed Freight Distribution Centres and Park & Ride Infrastructure in
Metropolitan Lagos
169
Fig. 10.2: Apapa: The Dominant Freight Nodal Point of Metropolitan Lagos
177
Fig. 10.3: Existing Jetties in Metropolitan Lagos
PR

180
 LIST OF PLATES

, Plate 1.1: Traffic Congestion at Peak Period along Ikorodu road in

: Metropolitan Lagos
Plate 1.2: Traffic Congestion at Funso William Avenue, Surulere, Lagos 13

Plate 6.1 : On-Street Parking, Median Climbing and Traffic Congestion on

Ikorodu Road 97
Plate 6.2 . Alm begging in Traffic Congestion along Herbert Macaulay Road,
Yaba, Lagos 99

Plate 8.1 On-Street Trading, Loading and Off-loading Activities in Ketu,

along Ikorodu Road ,, g
Plate 8.2 On-Street Bus-Stop and Trading activities at Ketu Along Ikorodu Road 129

W
Plate 8.3 ■ Open drainage and indiscriminate Pedestrian Crossing on
Lagos-Abeokuta Expressway 131
Plate 8.4: A Typical Bottleneck Point in CMS, Marina, Lagos 140
IE
Plate 9.1: Space optimization in Urban Transport Planning 154
EV

Plate 9.2: Artistic Impression of a Car—Free Urban Environment 155

Plate 10.1 Tram Exclusive Right of Way in Dresden, Germany 157

Plate 10.2: Pedestrian Traffic Management in Berkeley, California 172
PR

Plate 10.3: Sustainable Urban Space and Mobility Management in Dresden, Germany 175
Plate 10.4: Freight Train with Containerized Cargo in Dresden, Germany 178
Plate 10.5: Park and Ride facility located near Tram Station in Dresden, Germany 183
Plate 10.6: High Rise Residential Buildings in Dresden, Germany 185
Plate 10.7: Articulated Low Floor Public Transit Bus in Berkeley, California, USA 186

xvii
 APPENDICES

Appendix 1
204
Road Traffic Congestion Models
204
Definition of Symbols
212
1

Appendix it
213
Questionnaire
213

Appendix III
217
Frequency Tables
217

Appendix IV
224
Lagos State Traffic Management Authority Traffic Offences, Fines and Penalties
224

W
Appendix V
228
Functions and Responsibilities of a Typical Traffic Management Agency
IE 228

Appendix VI
229
EV

Congestion Index
229

Appendix VII
PR

231
Operational Terms
231

xviii
 ABSTRACT

Road traffic congestion is a global phenomenon that bedevils the cities of the world. One of
the negative impacts of this on socio-economic well -being of these cities is the
unpredictability of travel times. Lagos, a metropolitan commercial capital city of Nigeria is
not exempted from this phenomenon. This research sets out to identify the diverse patterns of
road traffic congestion in relation to human and road traffic environment causative factors in
Lagos with a view to recommending some cost effective and sustainable policy options for
better and enhanced intra-urban mobility in metropolitan Lagos.
i
In clear terms, the main objectives are to (i) identify the commuters general perception of,
and coping strategies in, road traffic congestion ;(») identify the vehicular composition and
volume on selected Lagos corridors and its spatio-temporal effects on traffic flow in the

W
metropolis; (iii) determine the hierarchy of road traffic congestion and the spatial pattern of
road traffic bottlenecks in selected corridors; (iv) audit traffic management infrastructure in
the selected corridors, (v) assess the traffic management policy and institutional framework in
IE
metropolitan I Lagos, and (vi) proffer cost-effective, sustainable solutions capable of
minimizing the socio-economic negative impacts of traffic congestion in Lagos.
EV

I
This study adopts quantitative and qualitative research methods in gathering and analysing
the appropriate empirical and secondary data that reflect the study objectives. Primary data
were collected through administration of questionnaire on commuters who are regular
PR

travelers on these corridors. The questionnaire aimed at investigating commuters general

perception of road traffic congestion in Lagos, coping strategies often been adopted by
commuters, the congestion causal factors, the health implications of traffic congestion on
commuters, as well as the average commuter travel time duration at peak periods on these
corridors. Data from the questionnaire were analysed in percentages and were presented in
Figures and Tables. In addition, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), Participants Observer
technique, and Observatory survey method were other forms of qualitative research methods
used in this study to determine the dynamics of road traffic congestion phenomenon in
Metropolitan Lagos. Data gathered through these processes were also analysed and presented
quantitatively using tables, photographs as well as maps. Moreover, secondary data used in
this study consist of traffic volume data on selected corridors, vehicular traffic pattern, and

xix
 trends in old and new vehicles and motorcycles registrations in Lagos, the population growth
trend and projection of Lagos, the profile and institutional framework of traffic management
agencies in' Lagos. These data were sourced from Lagos State government publications and
journals. The importance of these data is to understand the dominant traffic pattern on Lagos
road as it relates to the ubiquity of road traffic congestion in Lagos. Also, to do a projection
in travel demand as the population of Lagos grows, and implication of these in a ‘Business
As Usual’ (BAU) scenario.

The study findings reveal the clustered pattern of road traffic bottleneck points, the health
implications of congestion on road users, the dominance and prevalence of car traffic as a
grave challenge to traffic management in Lagos. Others include the problem of traffic
management institutional segmentation, challenge of human contributory factors, paucity of
traffic management infrastructure, and adoption of alternative routes as a congestion coping
strategy in Lagos.

W
To address these problems, the study suggests/recommends a combination of sustainable
urban transport planning mechanisms such as development of a mass transit oriented
IE
programme, land use re-ordering, road pricing, integration of traffic management institutions
in Lagos among others, in place of ever- growing preference for personal mobility, via Car
EV

Traffic which is claimed to be the major challenge of sustainable urban transport planning.
PR
 CHAPTER ONE

1 .0 BACKGROUND OF STUDY
1-1 Introduction
The transport system of any city is crucial to the effective functioning of its socio-economic
activities. It provides mobility and access, critical to all the activities in cities. In other words,
the vibrancy of socio-economic activities in cities depends largely on the level of
functionality of the transport infrastructure and services. Theoretically and empirically, the
geographical location of a city influences the pattern of its transport systems. For instance, a
city located along the coast-line is bound to benefit from the environmentally-sustainable
potential of water transport for the transportation of its goods and people On the other hand
cities located in the hinterland stand to enjoy the ultimate benefits offered by land modes
such as roads, rail and pipeline. The integration of pipeline and road modes with the water
mode -n any geographical location, help cities to grow in her economy as well as develop a

W
vibrant social life over time and space. Thus the combination of different types of transport
modes in regional as well as cities’ economy is inevitable. This is as a result of the derived
nature of transport. It is required for a purpose and not for its sake. For example transport is
IE
demanded foii various reasons amongst these are health, academic, production, and social
activities. -
!
EV

It is unfortunate that many transport systems are beginning to threaten the very livability of
the cities theylserve. This is occurring even in cities where car ownership is still very low,

because they .are ill-equipped to handle rapidly increasing private-vehicle traffic. The
PR

resulting traffic congestion has a direct effect on economic growth, not to mention safety,
noise and air pollution. The problems are particularly acute in the developing world's largest
cities. Swollen population and high density of vehicles of all types translate into major
congestion, long travel time, exposure to air pollution and high accident fatality (World
Bank, 1999) and (IEA, 2002).

In many large cities in the developing world, traffic is gridlocked, even though car ownership
is still very low (IEA, 2002), with the world projected population (see Table 1.1) by 2015, 23
mega cities with more than ten million people are expected to emerge globally (Khatib,
2005). I '

1
 Table 1.1:, Projected Populations of Megacities with a Population of more than Ten
i
Million by 2015
_________ !
Cities Population 1 Cities 1 Population Cities Population 1
Tokyo 26.4 1 Delhi | 16.8 Tianjin 10.7
Mumbai . 26.1 Metro- 14.8 Hyderabad 10.5
(Bombay) Manila Bangkok 10.1
Lagos 23.2 Shanghai 14.6
Dhaka 21.1 Los- 14.1
Sao Paulo 20.4 Angeles
Karachi 19.2 Buenos- 14.1
Mexico City 19.2 Aires
New York 17.4 Cairo 13.8
Jakarta

W
17.3 Istanbul 12.5
Calcutta 17.3 Beijing 12.3
IE
Rio-de 11.9
Janeiro
Osaka
EV

11.0

Source: katib h. (20(b) '

In an assessment of global urban transportation externalities by the World Bank (1999) it is
PR

stated that road traffic congestion constitutes about 54.5% of all noticeable urban transport
externalities. Ineffectual public transportation system, air and noise pollution are responsible
for about 54.8% and 59.4% level of urban nuisance respectively. When this transportation
related problems are projected into the future in the report, traffic congestion will be worse,
rising to 61.3%, while public transportation and air pollution related problems are expected to
be 60% each in most cities of the world.

The demand for transport especially in cities of developing countries has been on the increase
following the rapid socio-economic growth and development of these countries. For instance,
the rate of motqr vehicle ownership and use is growing faster than population in many places,
with the vehicle ownership growth rates rising to 15 to 20 percent per year. The average

2
 distance travelled per vehicle is also increasing except for the largest and most congested
cities. This growth often exceeds the rate of growth and maintenance of road infrastructure
and road complementary facilities. The overall effect is the congestion problems experienced
daily in these cities with the consequent negative impact on productivity (World Bank 2001 ).

United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (UNCHS, 1998) asserted that travel speed is
decreasing and the travel environment for pedestrians and people-powered vehicles are
deteriorating in developing countries. For instance, of the sixteen developing cities with
populations of more than 4 million reported in the UNCHS Global Urban Indicators Database
in 1998, five cities namely Bucharest, Jakarta, Kinshasa, Lagos and Manila experience
average one way journey to work times of one and a quarter hours or more.

Traffic congestion, according to Hook (1998), constrained the growth of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP).Hook expatiated that in some large cities such as Sao Paulo, Mexico city, and

W
Manila traffic congestion has continued to impact negatively on the cities economic
environment The City of Lagos equally falls into this category, where the unpredictability of
IE
transit time impacts negatively on business and other related socio-economic activities,
despite the fact that all these, motorization is still at a relatively low level in most developing
EV

countries. In Lagos there are 100 cars per thousand population as against the more developed
countries with about 400 cars per thousand populations (WBCSD 2004).

The challenges posed by road traffic congestion in Lagos as in other mega cities of the world
PR

are enormous. For example, road traffic congestion in Lagos worsens as the urban economy
grows, population and personal income increase and sub-urban environment sprawls. These
factors are partly responsible for the increase in car vehicular traffic, which further aggravates
the flow of traffic on existing roads. It is imperative that enduring and practicable solutions
are proffered, with a view to unclogging traffic on Lagos roads.

3
 1.2 Research Problem
The problem of road traffic congestion in Lagos, according to Mabogunje, (1968) date back
to the early 1950s,despite the introduction of traffic restraint edict of the Odd and Even
numbers arrangement in the 1970s, the establishment of specialized traffic planning and
management agencies like Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA) and Lagos
Metropolitan Area Traffic Authority (LAMATA) by the Lagos State Government in year
2000 to enforce traffic regulation and rehabilitate the traffic environment of Lagos, road
traffic congestion continues to spread like a deadly cancer across the city. About N13.8
billion was expended on different road projects by the Lagos government between 2000­
2003, mainly for road expansion and regular maintenance of road infrastructure (Lagos
Digest of Statistics, 2006). Despite this financial commitment from the government, road

traffic congestion in Lagos remains an enigma.

The externalization of congestion costs has been a greater challenge of transportation

W
planning in Lagos, as if is in most developing countries. Sperling and Claussen (2004), stated
that “despite massive road building budgets in most developing countries, only a small
IE
minority of people own cars and benefit from the massive road building budgets. In contrast
the vast majority suffer from increasing traffic congestion, noise and pollution”. This is
indeed true' of the road transport situation in Lagos. There is a need for a sustainable
EV

transportation policy that will internalize the cost of transport negativities, such that
individual users are made to pay for their contributions to urban transport problems like

congestion and auto-induced air pollution in Lagos.

PR

The unprecedented rapid sprawl of Lagos metropolis, due to the geometrical growth in the
population of the city; and the relocation of the urban poor to the urban fringe are
complicating the pattern of road traffic congestion in Lagos. For instance, the North-South
uni-directional nature of traffic, at peak periods often choked-up traffic towards the city
centres, where commercial and other social activities are largely located, in Lagos. Hence
intra-urban travelers in Lagos, particularly, commuters often spend relatively long time
travelling from one part of the city to the other. This is as a result of the severity of road
traffic congestion at peak periods. For instance, a journey of fifteen minutes under a normal
traffic situation may end up taking forty-five minutes or more. This problem inhibits
commuters’ access to urban resources which are spatially located across the metropolis.
According to Oni (1992) “traffic problems in Lagos are multi-dimensional; and bewildering.

Reproduced with permission of copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission.