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ABBVie Morningstar Report

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228 views20 pages

ABBVie Morningstar Report

ABBVie Morningstar Report

Uploaded by

cmcbuyersg
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 20

Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD

| Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 1 of 20

AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

Price vs. Fair Value

Last Close: 152.12


200 Fair Value: 126.00
27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC

150 Over Valued


Under Valued
100

50

0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
0.90 0.88 1.10 1.25 1.35 1.21 Price/Fair Value
-0.96 0.68 26.35 31.22 23.80 -3.12 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating

Total Return % as of 15 Sep 2023. Last Close as of 15 Sep 2023. Fair Value as of 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC.
Contents
Analyst Note (29 Aug 2023) Biopharma Industry: Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Impact
Business Description
Business Strategy & Outlook (22 May 2023) Reduced by Expected Generic Pressures
Bulls Say / Bears Say (27 Jul 2023)
Analyst Note Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 29 Aug 2023
Economic Moat (22 May 2023)
Fair Value and Profit Drivers (27 Jul 2023)
As part of the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on Aug. 29
Risk and Uncertainty (22 May 2023) announced the first 10 drugs selected for mandated 2026 Medicare price negotiations. This doesn’t
Capital Allocation (22 May 2023) have a major impact on our valuations or moat ratings for the biopharma industry. The 10 drugs have
Analyst Notes Archive been on the market for a prolonged period (seven years for small-molecule drugs and 11 years for
Financials
biologics) and were selected based on the largest gross (before discounts) spending in Medicare Part D.
ESG Risk
Appendix
We had expected three of the 10 drugs selected for 2026 negotiations: Bristol-Myers/Pfizer’s Eliquis,
Research Methodology for Valuing Companies
AbbVie/Johnson & Johnson’s Imbruvica, and Eli Lilly/Boehringer Ingelheim’s Jardiance. We have
Important Disclosure
already projected a 45% forced negotiated discount for these drugs starting in 2026, although the exact
The conduct of Morningstar’s analysts is governed by Code of Ethics/Code of
Conduct Policy, Personal Security Trading Policy (or an equivalent of), and discount will be determined over the next 12 months. We expect generic pressures for these drugs by
Investment Research Policy. For information regarding conflicts of interest, please
visit: http://global.morningstar.com/equitydisclosures. 2028-29, which limits the impact of Medicare negotiations.
The primary analyst covering this company does not own its stock.
The majority of the remaining drugs face major patent losses before or very close to 2026, which also
The ESG Risk Rating Assessment is a representation of Sustainalytics’ ESG Risk
1

Rating. limits the impact of the negotiations. This is particularly true for J&J's Stelara and Novo Nordisk's
insulins Novolog/Fiasp, as we see potential biosimilars by 2026. Amgen’s Enbrel is the only surprise
selection that doesn’t face heavy generic pressures by 2026; its patents expire in 2028. Enbrel's
inclusion is likely a result of the drug's massive discounts, making it qualify on gross sales using a high
list price. This forced price negotiation will likely accelerate declines in 2026, but most Enbrel sales are

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 2 of 20

AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

Sector Industry
Drug Manufacturers - outside of Medicare, so this doesn't have a major impact on Amgen’s valuation.
d Healthcare
General

Business Description Big winners in this first initial round include AstraZeneca’s Tagrisso and Calquence and Eli Lilly's
AbbVie is a pharmaceutical firm with a strong exposure Verzenio, which we had expected to be included in 2026. Another 15 drugs will be negotiated beginning
to immunology and oncology. The firm's top drug, in 2027, so we expect to see these three on the next list, as well as Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide
Humira, represents close to half of the company's
(diabetes drugs Ozempic and Rybelsus).
current profits. The company was spun off from Abbott
in early 2013. The recent acquisition of Allergan adds
Business Strategy & Outlook Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 22 May 2023
several new drugs in aesthetics and women's health.
While AbbVie holds a strong portfolio of marketed and pipeline drugs, the increasing competition to the
company's key drug Humira should slow the growth for the company. At close to 40% of total sales and
a higher portion of earnings (due to higher margin revenue), Humira is a key determinant of AbbVie's
earnings performance over the next three years.

With approvals in rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and Crohn's disease, Humira holds a wide range of
indications, but biosimilar pressure will likely lead to declining sales over the next few years, and we
expect U.S. biosimilar competition to accelerate declines in 2023. Also, branded competition will likely
weigh on Humira's growth over the next several years. In particular, new JAK inhibitors and IL-17 and
IL-23 antibodies represent major advancements in rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis, which will likely
lead to some market share losses for Humira.

Offsetting Humira's expected declines, AbbVie looks well-positioned with next generation immunology
drugs. In particular, recently launched drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq have shown improved efficacy over
Humira and other currently leading treatment options, which should support peak combined annual
sales by 2032, close to Humira's 2022 sales.

Beyond immunology, cancer drug Imbruvica is the next-biggest sales contributor. Imbruvica's strong
clinical data in several forms of blood cancer should lead to peak sales above $4 billion, but increasing
competition will likely cause declines over the next three years. Additionally, the acquisition of Allergan
brings several new products, including Botox for both cosmetic and therapeutic uses. Botox's strong
entrenchment bodes well for the treatment as new competition is emerging. Also, AbbVie holds several
mature drugs with patent expirations long past, but with manufacturing or specific dosing complexities,
which make generic competition less likely.

Looking forward, AbbVie's pipeline is weighted more toward new cancer and immunology drugs. The
company should be able to leverage its solid entrenchment with Humira and Imbruvica to launch the
new drugs.

Bulls Say Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 27 Jul 2023


u AbbVie supports a strong dividend yield, which should act as valuation support, as the cash flows to

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 3 of 20

AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

Competitors
AbbVie Inc ABBV Eli Lilly and Co LLY Johnson & Johnson JNJ Merck & Co Inc MRK

Last Close Fair Value


152.12 Last Close 164.00 Last Close
575.66 Uncertainty : Low 107.52
Fair Value Fair Value Last Close Fair Value
126.00 368.00 161.45 103.00
Uncertainty : High Uncertainty : High Uncertainty : Medium

Economic Moat Narrow Wide Wide Wide


Currency USD USD USD USD
Fair Value 126.00 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 368.00 24 May 2023 21:04, UTC 164.00 19 Sep 2022 11:58, UTC 103.00 8 Sep 2023 19:16, UTC
1-Star Price 195.30 570.40 205.00 139.05
5-Star Price 75.60 220.80 131.20 72.10
Over Valued 15 Sep 2023 Significantly Over 15 Sep Fairly Valued 15 Sep 2023 Fairly Valued 15 Sep 2023
Assessment
Valued 2023
Morningstar Rating QQ15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC Q15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC QQQ15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC QQQ15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC
Analyst Damien Conover, Sector Director Damien Conover, Sector Director Damien Conover, Sector Director Damien Conover, Sector Director
Capital Allocation Standard Exemplary Standard Standard
Price/Fair Value 1.21 1.56 0.98 1.04
Price/Sales 4.82 17.63 4.37 4.69
Price/Book 20.87 49.39 5.17 7.05
Price/Earning 31.30 80.18 32.75 88.13
Dividend Yield 3.85% 0.76% 2.87% 2.72%
Market Cap 271.18 Bil 561.61 Bil 394.29 Bil 274.66 Bil
52-Week Range 130.96—168.11 296.32—601.84 150.11—181.04 84.52—119.65
Investment Style Large Value Large Growth Large Value Large Core

support the dividend look secure over the next several years.
u AbbVie's increasing entrenchment in blood cancers should bode well for growth as pricing power

remains solid in this therapeutic area of the drug market.


u AbbVie's next generation immunology drugs targeting the IL23 and JAK pathways should help mitigate

the competitive threats facing Humira over the next five years.

Bears Say Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 27 Jul 2023


u Several of AbbVie's pipeline drugs in immunology have mechanisms of action similar to treatments

already approved, taking away the first mover advantage for AbbVie.
u The high profit margins on Humira will likely cause an amplified impact on earnings as sales are lost to

eventual biosimilar competition over the next several years.


u The extra debt to finance the Allergan acquisition could put more pressure on AbbVie if core assets like

Botox and Humira face tougher competition than expected.

Economic Moat Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 22 May 2023


© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 4 of 20

AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

We believe AbbVie supports a narrow moat based on patent-protected drugs, intellectual intangibles,
and a powerful salesforce. As is the case for most drug firms, the core of AbbVie's moat lies in its
portfolio of patent-protected drugs. However, unlike AbbVie's Big Pharma peers, which tend to carry
wide moats, one drug (Humira) represents the majority of AbbVie's sales (close to 40%) and profits
(greater than 50%). As a result of both emerging branded competition to Humira in the immediate term
and a potential U.S. generic biosimilar threat in the 2023 time frame, we believe excess returns are
likely to persist for 10 years, but we cannot be as certain of this for our 20-year outlook, which would be
needed for a wide-moat rating. While we do model in U.S. Humira sales declines in 2023, the rate of
decline will likely be more gradual than a typical small molecule-branded drug facing generic
competition, because of the complexities in developing and marketing a biosimilar (generic biologic).

Nevertheless, AbbVie derives enormous cash flows from its current product portfolio to fund ongoing
discovery and development of the next generation of drugs. The large cash flows create an economy of
scale that enables AbbVie to fund the average $800 million required for a new drug. While not as strong
as other Big Pharma firms, AbbVie's R&D has created a database of intellectual insights that should help
increase the odds of successful drug development. Finally, AbbVie's entrenched salesforce in one of the
most sought-after therapeutic areas of immunology should help the firm launch its next generation of
drugs and make the firm a leading candidate for smaller drug firms needing help to develop and
commercialize innovative new drugs.

We think the company does face environmental, social, and governance, or ESG, risks, particularly
related to potential U.S. drug price-related policy changes (75% of sales are generated in the U.S.) to
increase access by lowering drug prices. Also, ongoing product governance issues (including litigation
related to side effects and patents) also weigh on the firm. While we have factored these threats into
our analysis, we don't see them as material to our moat rating.

Fair Value and Profit Drivers Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 27 Jul 2023
We have increased our fair value estimate to $126 from $120 largely based on an improving outlook for
the company's next-generation immunology drugs. In particular, the strong gains for immunology drug
Skyrizi in the first half of 2023 support an increased long-term outlook for the drug. Skyrizi’s leading
efficacy in psoriasis along with strong data in inflammatory bowel disease should support peak annual
sales over $15 billion.

In total, while we model major annual Humira declines beginning in 2023 in the U.S., key valuation
drivers to offset likely Humira sales declines are the company's next-generation immunology drugs
targeting the IL23 and JAK pathways. These new pathways seem to offer better efficacy and an
improved side effect profile over Humira. Further helping offset likely eventual Humira sales erosion,
aesthetic and therapeutic drug Botox should post steady minor gains based on the entrenchment of the
drug and the complexity in creating a generic version. Also, the company has several other late-stage
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 5 of 20

AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

cancer drugs that should further help mitigate the eventual Humira sales declines.

On the Allergan acquisition, while it carried a significant premium to the stock price, we viewed
Allergan as undervalued. We believe management was opportunistically taking advantage of Allergan's
low price combined with the need to reduce AbbVie's dependence on Humira. Allergan cash flows
should also help mitigate the Humira pressures. On the bottom line, we expect margin declines through
2025 as increased U.S. Humira biosimilar pressure builds against AbbVie's key high-margin drug. For the
weighted average cost of capital, we use a 7.5% cost of equity and market rates for the cost of debt.

Risk and Uncertainty Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 22 May 2023
Similar to other drug companies, AbbVie faces the risks of new drug failures, reimbursement challenges
for new drugs, and drug pricing cuts by large payer groups that are growing increasingly price-sensitive.
Further, AbbVie's high concentration of Humira sales makes the company significantly exposed to any
new competitive threats to Humira, both from biosimilars and new branded drug competition. Also,
AbbVie has taken on significant debt to purchase Allergan. Additionally, AbbVie holds a high proportion
of drugs with pricing that looks less cost-effective, opening the firm up to increased exposure if payors
implement cost-saving measures. Given all these uncertainties, we view the firm at a high uncertainty
level.

Our High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating for AbbVie is not materially affected by environmental, social,
and governance, or ESG, risks beyond the potential pricing of drugs beyond the cost effectiveness
mentioned above. We see access to basic services (tied to drug pricing) as the biggest ESG risk that the
firm needs to manage. AbbVie generates 75% of total sales in the U.S. (a high amount relative to peers)
so additional major pricing reforms could weigh on sales and margins.

Additionally, we assume a more than 50% probability of AbbVie seeing future costs related to product
governance ESG risks (such as off-label marketing or litigation related to side effects) and model base
case annual legal costs at 1.5% of non-GAAP net income (at the midrange relative to peers based on
AbbVie’s product portfolio having average exposure to future potential litigation).

Capital Allocation Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 22 May 2023


AbbVie’s capital allocation rating is Standard, which reflects our belief that it possesses a sound
balance sheet, a reasonable record of investments, and largely fair shareholder distributions.

We believe AbbVie’s balance sheet is sound, with low risk regarding the size of its debt, the business
cyclicality facing the firm, and the debt maturity outlook. While an argument could be made to increase
the leverage of the balance sheet to be more active in investing, we believe the company, along with
most large-cap biopharma firms, should hold ample balance sheet strength to support opportunistic
acquisitions as dynamic scientific data emerges that might require relatively quick action. Also, a strong
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 6 of 20

AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

balance sheet helps biopharma firms through most product litigation challenges with minimal concern
by the market.

Turning to investments, we believe AbbVie is operating at a reasonable level. While the company only
spends on research and development at the low- to midteens level as a percentage of sales (below the
industry average in the high teens), the company has shown high productivity with strong execution in
pipeline development. The strong productivity in creating the next generation of drugs has yielded
enough new drugs to help mitigate the major generic competition upcoming for Humira. The strong
productivity in innovative new drugs (largely targeting areas of unmet medical need, especially in
immunology) also helps fortify the firm’s narrow moat and expand the returns on invested capital.
However, on the negative side, more investment would likely position the firm for stronger growth
potential through the patent loss of Humira.

On the acquisition side and partnership side, AbbVie has executed reasonably well. The largest recent
acquisition of Allergan for over $60 billion diversified cash flows and opportunistically added products
from a firm trading below its fair value. Allergan also opens a new therapeutic segment in aesthetics
that doesn’t face the same potential pricing risks as the branded drug segment. Additionally, the 2015
acquisition of Pharmacyclics for over $20 billion looks sound, given that key drug Imbruvica has
delivered peak annualized sales of

close to $4 billion even with some royalties paid to Johnson & Johnson. On the negative side, the failed
acquisition of Shire led to a $1.6 billion breakup fee, and the $6 billion acquisition of Stemcentrx looks
like poor judgment on a key cancer drug that looks less effective in late-stage clinical studies.

Regarding distributions, we view AbbVie’s dividends and share repurchases as about right. Since being
divested from Abbott, AbbVie has largely focused on a dividend payout ratio close to 50%, which seems
appropriate, given the maturity of the industry. The firm has done several rounds of share repurchases
largely at levels that looked undervalued, which seems to be a good use of capital. However, we would
argue for more R&D spending to set the firm up for strong growth potential through the Humira patent
loss.

Turning to management specifically, AbbVie is led by Rick Gonzalez, who joined Abbott in 1977 and held
many managerial posts throughout his career at the firm. His relatively short tenure in the key field of
drug commercialization and development before becoming the CEO was a concern, but execution has
been going well under his leadership.

Analyst Notes Archive

AbbVie Earnings: Strong Growth Led by Skyrizi Supports a Fair Value Estimate Increase of About 5%
Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 27 Jul 2023
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 7 of 20

AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

AbbVie reported strong second-quarter results ahead of our projections, and we are increasing our fair
value estimate to $126 from $120 based on the improving outlook. In particular, the strong gains for
immunology drug Skyrizi support an increased long-term outlook for the drug. Skyrizi’s leading efficacy
in psoriasis along with strong data in inflammatory bowel disease should support peak annual sales
over $15 billion. Beyond Skyrizi, the rest of the business is largely performing well, except for the
expected declines for immunology drug Humira (due to biosimilars) and blood cancer drug Imbruvica
(due to intensifying branded competition). The strong, broad-based support provides us with increased
confidence in the firm’s moat.

While the business is performing well, we still view the stock as slightly overvalued (even with our
increased fair value estimate) largely due to our more bearish long-term outlook for Humira. We believe
Humira will continue to pressure earnings over the next five years, in contrast to management’s view of
Humira sales stabilizing in 2025. With eight biosimilars on the U.S. market as of July, we expect pricing
pressure to continue to intensify over the next several years, creating a headwind for the company’s
growth prospects. Even with this headwind, we expect growth from the remaining portfolio to offset the
Humira biosimilar pressure, resulting in relatively flat growth over the next five years. However, the
stock price seems to imply a stronger growth outlook. Potential upside to our valuation could come from
the pipeline, but the majority of next-generation drugs remain in phase 1 and 2 with limited visibility on
clinical data. Also, we expect AbbVie to increase its acquisition efforts, but we remain skeptical this will
create much value given the high competition for deals.

AbbVie Earnings: Solid Drug Sales Help Mitigate Humira Biosimilar, but Increased Pressure
Expected Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 27 Apr 2023
AbbVie posted first-quarter results largely as projected, and we don’t expect any major changes to our
fair value estimate. With the arrival of the first U.S. biosimilar to Humira, AbbVie’s results took a
material hit; we expected this, but it was probably more jarring to the market. With likely six more
biosimilars launching later in the year (most around the July time frame), we expect Humira sales to
continue to rapidly decline. However, the robustness of the remaining portfolio helps to support
AbbVie's narrow moat.

In the quarter, total sales fell 8% operationally, largely driven by declining Humira sales, partially offset
by strong growth of the remaining portfolio. While we expect sales declines to decelerate in 2024 as the
initial Humira biosimilar pressures annualize, we expect fairly flat sales for several years after 2024,
given the likely continued headwinds from Humira biosimilars over the long term, despite
management’s guidance for a return to growth after 2024 with stable Humira sales. With close to seven
biosimilar versions likely to be on the market by the end of 2023, we expect long-term declines for
Humira, which is likely to limit the stock’s growth potential.

Despite the Humira headwinds, AbbVie's remaining business is largely holding up. In particular, next-
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

generation immunology drugs Skyrizi (up 46% operationally in the quarter) and Rinvoq (up 51%) are
poised to post collective peak annual sales above $21 billion by 2030 (the same sales amount as Humira
in 2022). New indications and superior efficacy to existing treatments should continue to propel these
drugs. Additionally, the recent approval of Qulipta in chronic migraine gives the drug a very competitive
profile versus Pfizer’s Nurtec (another oral CGRP drug). However, beyond strong progress in line
extensions with currently marketed drugs, we believe AbbVie’s pipeline needs further development with
new molecules to drive robust growth in 2025 and beyond.

AbbVie Posts Solid Q4, but Competitive Pressures to Humira and Imbruvica Limit Long-Term Growth
Damien Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 9 Feb 2023
AbbVie reported fourth-quarter results largely in line with our expectations, and we don’t expect any
major fair value estimate changes. We continue to view the stock as slightly overvalued, as we see less
likely growth potential over the next five years versus the market. We are more concerned with the
long-term outlook for immunology drug Humira and cancer drug Imbruvica (collecting representing close
to half of total sales). While management’s guidance for a 37% U.S. decline in Humira sales for 2023
followed by another decline in 2024 seems reasonable given close to 10 likely biosimilar launches this
year, we expect the heavy competition to force continued Humira declines after 2024 instead of
management’s expectations for stable Humira sales by 2025. Similarly, management’s 2023 guidance
for declines in Imbruvica sales are reasonable given recent competitive drug launches with superior
profiles, but longer-term guidance for Imbruvica to stabilize seems too optimistic.

Despite the headwinds on Humira and Imbruvica, AbbVie’s next generation of drugs are continuing to
develop well and should be able to replace lost sales from maturing products, a key driver for the firm’s
narrow moat. The new immunology drugs Skyrizi (up almost 80%) and Rinvoq (up over 50%) hold
potential for future gains based on approvals in new indications and upcoming head-to-head studies
versus branded competitors that should post successful data based on very strong previous clinical
data. The recently launched migraine drugs Ubrelvy and Qulipta hold reasonable efficacy but
importantly offer convenient oral dosing, which will likely drive robust demand.

To really accelerate growth, we believe AbbVie needs to invest more in research and development (R&
D). Spending at close to 13% of sales on R&D, AbbVie trails the industry average of high teens.
Nevertheless, the firm holds a few key pipeline drugs, and we are most excited about cancer drug
epcoritamab (approval likely in 2023).

AbbVie Posts Solid Q3, but Uncertain Outlook for Humira Likely Weighing on the Stock Damien
Conover, CFA, Sector Director, 31 Oct 2022
AbbVie reported third-quarter results slightly above our projections, but we don’t expect any major
changes to our fair value estimate on the minor outperformance. We continue to view the stock as

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

slightly overvalued with the market not fully appreciating the U.S. biosimilar Humira pressure likely
starting in 2023. Nevertheless, we remain confident in AbbVie’s narrow moat due to the strong
entrenchment of several newer drugs, especially immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq.

In the quarter, total sales increased 5% operationally with strong growth from Skyrizi and Rinvoq
helping to offset declines from mature products. While we continue to expect robust sales growth from
these new immunology drugs as new indications launch, we expect U.S. Humira sales to fall close to
50% in 2023 due to biosimilar pressure. We believe the high uncertainty and lack of additional details
around management expectations for Humira (beyond guidance of a 45% decline, plus or minus 10% in
2023) is weighing on the stock. Also, while management is expecting a return to steady growth
following 2023, we are skeptical growth will be robust in the following years due to the heavy continual
headwinds of biosimilar Humira pressures. Biosimilar pressure tends to last longer than generic small
molecule pressure that usually erodes branded drugs sales very quickly. Also, adding to near term
pressures, AbbVie’s blood cancer portfolio looks increasingly less competitive as new competitive drugs
enter the market. Additionally, AbbVie’s aesthetics business looks more exposed to any recessionary
macro headwinds.

While AbbVie does face several near-term pressures, we believe the firm is making strides with its
pipeline, but probably needs to augment internal efforts with increased acquisitions. Within the
pipeline, we are bullish on recently filed lymphoma drug epcoritamab. Also, new indications for already
approved migraine drugs should support further entrenchment for this franchise.

Diving Into the Drug Pricing Hit From the Inflation Reduction Act, We’ve Reduced Our FVEs by 2%
Karen Andersen, CFA, Sector Strategist, 19 Sep 2022
After taking a closer look at what we consider the three key elements of the Inflation Reduction Act that
will affect the biopharma industry over the next decade, we're reducing our fair value estimates for 17
of the biggest biopharma names in Morningstar's coverage by an average of 2%. We think the step-
down in U.S. branded drug sales from capping Medicare price increases to inflation (fully rolled out in
2023), redesigning Medicare Part D (beginning in 2025), and Medicare negotiation (beginning in 2026
for small molecules) will result in a 3% reduction in total sales for these firms by 2031, with firm-level
reductions depending on the firm's reliance on the U.S. market, proportion of the portfolio targeting
seniors, history of price increases, and relative size of its small molecule and biologics portfolios (as
biologics are immune from Medicare negotiation for 13 years instead of nine). Our estimates factor in
some ability for the industry to either benefit from certain changes (like potential increased prescription
fill rates in Part D with lower out-of-pocket costs) or compensate for headwinds (like responding to
inflation caps on price increases with higher launch prices). Overall, we think the effect of the Inflation
Reduction Act is manageable for the industry, and we see the competitive advantages and economic
moats of these firms remaining intact.

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

Turning to the effects on individual firms, we think firms with higher exposure to these policy changes
include AstraZeneca (oncology negotiation), Bristol (expensive oncology drugs), Gilead (HIV negotiation),
and Novo Nordisk (Ozempic negotiation and list price increases). Factors reducing exposure include low
Medicare exposure (Biogen and BioMarin), global diversification (BioMarin, Pfizer, and Roche), and
biologics focus (BioMarin and Roche).

I-Mab’s Partner AbbVie Discontinues a Key CD47 Program; Reducing I-Mab’s FVE to $32.50 Jay Lee,
Senior Equity Analyst, 18 Aug 2022
Yesterday, multiple media sources reported that AbbVie is stopping its phase 1 clinical trial of
lemzoparlimab (“lemzo”) as part of a combination treatment for myelodysplastic syndromes, or MDS,
and acute myeloid leukemia, or AML, as per I-Mab’s Form 6-K filed with the SEC. Lemzo, a CD47
inhibitor, is one of I-Mab’s two core global assets, and its ex-China rights were out-licensed to AbbVie.
Unlike AbbVie’s previous termination of its trial in multiple myeloma, or MM, AML and MDS are
significant indications for lemzo and this news has a significant impact on I-Mab’s future revenue
potential. We lower our fair value estimate of no-moat I-Mab to $32.50 per share from $51.00 per share.

Our bear-case scenario values the company at $14.50 per share, where we assume no revenue from
global assets and only value I-Mab based on revenue from its late-stage China assets (CD38 and long-
acting growth hormone). Although this represents more than 100% upside from the current market
price, most of its original investor base likely evaluated I-Mab primarily for its global potential.
Evaluating it for its domestic potential requires a change in mindset. We reiterate our view that
sentiment will continue to be depressed.

The news is shocking to us. Not much was disclosed on the reason for discontinuation, but we think it
was probably due to the safety profile of the combination. Although I-Mab will continue to develop
lemzo in China for MDS and AML, the market potential is much smaller now that AbbVie will no longer
move forward with it in the United States. This adds to the stream of negative news for immuno-
oncology assets, which (along with the more difficult financing environment) has weighed heavily on
global biotech stocks. On top of that, as a Chinese company listed in the U.S., the risk of de-listing is still
not zero. Although we feel that this will ultimately be resolved, it is an additional source of uncertainty
that dampens sentiment. K

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Competitors Price vs. Fair Value

Eli Lilly and Co LLY

Last Close: 575.66


800 Fair Value: 368.00
24 May 2023 21:04, UTC

600 Over Valued


Under Valued
400

200

0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
1.11 1.09 1.00 1.18 1.34 1.56 Price/Fair Value
39.68 15.81 30.72 65.61 33.86 58.28 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating

Total Return % as of 15 Sep 2023. Last Close as of 15 Sep 2023. Fair Value as of 24 May 2023 21:04, UTC.

Johnson & Johnson JNJ

Fair Value: 164.00


19 Sep 2022 11:58, UTC
200
Last Close: 161.45
150 Over Valued
Under Valued
100

50

0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
0.99 1.11 1.07 1.02 1.08 0.98 Price/Fair Value
-5.10 15.94 10.62 11.36 5.86 -6.62 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating

Total Return % as of 15 Sep 2023. Last Close as of 15 Sep 2023. Fair Value as of 19 Sep 2022 11:58, UTC.

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Merck & Co Inc MRK

Last Close: 107.52


200 Fair Value: 103.00
8 Sep 2023 19:16, UTC

150 Over Valued


Under Valued
100

50

0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
1.09 0.88 0.82 0.82 1.14 1.04 Price/Fair Value
39.33 21.99 -7.33 -0.68 48.42 -1.12 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating

Total Return % as of 15 Sep 2023. Last Close as of 15 Sep 2023. Fair Value as of 8 Sep 2023 19:16, UTC.

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

Morningstar Historical Summary


Financials as of 30 Jun 2023
Fiscal Year, ends 31 Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD TTM
Revenue (USD Bil) 19 20 23 26 28 33 33 46 56 58 26 56
Revenue Growth % 2.2 6.2 14.5 12.2 10.1 16.1 1.6 37.7 22.7 3.3 -7.2 -2.3
EBITDA (USD Bil) 6.53 3.58 8.20 10.12 10.38 8.31 12.23 12.32 23.93 24.17 8.58 21.43
EBITDA Margin % 34.7 18.0 35.9 39.5 36.8 25.4 36.8 26.9 42.6 41.6 32.9 38.3
Operating Income (USD Bil) 6.00 3.76 7.69 9.54 9.87 6.81 13.37 12.74 19.05 18.81 7.71 18.10
Operating Margin % 31.9 18.9 33.6 37.2 35.0 20.8 40.2 27.8 33.9 32.4 29.6 32.3
Net Income (USD Bil) 4.13 1.77 5.14 5.95 5.31 5.69 7.88 4.62 11.54 11.84 2.26 8.69
Net Margin % 22.0 8.8 22.4 23.1 18.7 17.3 23.6 10.0 20.4 20.3 8.6 15.4
Diluted Shares Outstanding (Mil) 1,604 1,610 1,637 1,631 1,603 1,546 1,484 1,673 1,777 1,778 1,773 1,776
Diluted Earnings Per Share (USD) 2.56 1.10 3.13 3.63 3.30 3.66 5.28 2.72 6.45 6.63 1.26 4.86
Dividends Per Share (USD) 1.60 1.66 2.02 2.28 2.56 3.59 4.28 4.72 5.20 5.64 2.96 5.78

Valuation as of 31 Aug 2023


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Recent Qtr TTM
Price/Sales 4.4 5.4 4.4 4.1 5.7 4.5 4.0 4.2 4.4 5.0 4.2 4.7
Price/Earnings 18.5 28.5 34.6 16.9 23.5 19.1 39.1 23.1 32.7 21.6 31.7 30.2
Price/Cash Flow 14.1 19.6 19.3 13.7 17.5 11.5 9.8 10.7 10.7 12.7 9.9 10.2
Dividend Yield % 3.03 2.54 3.41 3.64 2.65 3.89 4.83 4.41 3.84 3.49 4.29 3.98
Price/Book 23.4 22.4 19.6 15.4 23.0 -46.7 -15.9 12.4 17.7 17.9 17.9 20.2
EV/EBITDA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating Performance / Profitability as of 30 Jun 2023
Fiscal Year, ends 31 Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD TTM
ROA % 14.7 6.2 12.7 9.9 7.7 8.7 10.6 3.8 7.7 8.3 1.6 6.2
ROE % 105 56.6 180 138 108 — — 185 80.5 72.2 14.9 62.8
ROIC % 22.7 11.5 21.6 17.3 14.2 — — 7.9 14.2 15.7 3.8 12.6
Asset Turnover 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4
Financial Leverage
Fiscal Year, ends 31 Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Recent Qtr TTM
Debt/Capital % 76.1 85.8 88.1 88.7 85.9 — — 85.6 80.6 77.4 81.3 —
Equity/Assets % 15.4 6.3 7.4 7.0 7.2 — — 8.7 10.5 12.4 9.5 —
Total Debt/EBITDA 2.3 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.6 — — 7.0 3.2 2.6 7.1 —
EBITDA/Interest Expense 21.8 8.4 11.4 9.7 9.0 6.2 6.9 5.0 9.9 10.8 7.8 9.6

Morningstar Analyst Historical/Forecast Summary as of 27 Jul 2023


Financials Estimates Forward Valuation Estimates
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Fiscal Year, ends 12-31-2022 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Price/Sales 4.3 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.2
Revenue (USD Mil) 56,197 58,054 53,367 51,454 51,769 Price/Earnings 10.7 11.7 13.8 15.1 15.5
Revenue Growth % 22.7 3.3 -8.1 -3.6 0.6 Price/Cash Flow — — — — —
EBITDA (USD Mil) 23,894 23,988 25,977 24,046 23,500 Dividend Yield % 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.7
EBITDA Margin % 42.5 41.3 48.7 46.7 45.4 Price/Book 15.6 16.7 13.5 13.2 13.1
EV/EBITDA 12.9 14.3 12.3 13.3 13.6
Operating Income (USD Mil) 19,480 18,870 17,469 15,958 15,772
Operating Margin % 34.7 32.5 32.7 31.0 30.5
Net Income (USD Mil) 22,569 24,597 19,515 17,762 17,162
Net Margin % 40.2 42.4 36.6 34.5 33.2
Diluted Shares Outstanding (Mil) 1,777 1,778 1,772 1,760 1,748
Diluted Earnings Per Share(USD) 12.70 13.83 11.01 10.09 9.82
Dividends Per Share(USD) 4.84 5.31 5.42 5.52 5.64

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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AbbVie Inc ABBV QQ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
152.12 USD 126.00 USD 1.21 271.18 USD Bil Narrow 1 Large Value High Standard ;;;;;
15 Sep 2023 27 Jul 2023 19:09, UTC 14 Sep 2023 6 Sep 2023 05:00, UTC

ESG Risk Rating Breakdown

Exposure Subject Subindustry (49.0) u Exposure represents a company’s vulnerability to ESG


Company Exposure1 49.7 risks driven by their business model
49.7
u Exposure is assessed at the Subindustry level and then
– Manageable Risk 46.4 Medium
2 0 55+ specified at the company level
Unmanageable Risk 3.3
Low Medium High u Scoring ranges from 0-55+ with categories of low, me-

dium, and high-risk exposure

Management
u Management measures a company’s ability to manage
Manageable Risk 46.4 ESG risks through its commitments and actions
42.6%
– Managed Risk3 19.8 Average
u Management assesses a company's efficiency on ESG

Management Gap4 26.6 100 0 programs, practices, and policies


Strong Average Weak u Management score ranges from 0-100% showing how

Overall Unmanaged Risk 29.9 much manageable risk a company is managing

ESG Risk Rating ESG Risk Rating Assessment5


29.93
Medium

Negligible Low Medium High Severe ESG Risk Rating is of Sep 06, 2023. Highest Controversy Level is as of Sep 08,
2023. Sustainalytics Subindustry: Pharmaceuticals. Sustainalytics provides
ESG Risk Ratings measure the degree to which a company’s value is impacted by environmental, social, and governance Morningstar with company ESG ratings and metrics on a monthly basis and
risks, by evaluating the company’s ability to manage the ESG risks it faces. as such, the ratings in Morningstar may not necessarily reflect current
Sustainalytics’ scores for the company. For the most up to date rating and
1. A company's Exposure to material ESG issues 2. Unmanageable Risk refers to risks that are inherent to a particular business model that cannot be managed by more information, please visit: sustainalytics.com/esg-ratings/.
programs or initiatives 3. Managed Risk = Manageable Risk multiplied by a Management score of 42.6% 4. Management Gap assesses risks that are not
managed, but are considered manageable 5. ESG Risk Rating Assessment = Overall Unmanaged Risk = Management Gap plus Unmanageable Risk

Peer Analysis 06 Sep 2023 Peers are selected from the company's Sustainalytics-defined Subindustry and are displayed based on the closest market cap values
Company Name Exposure Management ESG Risk Rating

AbbVie Inc 49.7 | Medium 0 55+ 42.6 | Average 100 0 29.9 | Medium 0 40+

Eli Lilly and Co 48.3 | Medium 0 55+ 53.1 | Strong 100 0 24.3 | Medium 0 40+

Merck & Co Inc 48.5 | Medium 0 55+ 60.1 | Strong 100 0 21.4 | Medium 0 40+
Johnson & Johnson 51.2 | Medium 0 55+ 57.1 | Strong 100 0 24.0 | Medium 0 40+

Pfizer Inc 47.5 | Medium 0 55+ 51.7 | Strong 100 0 24.6 | Medium 0 40+

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 15 of 20

Appendix
Historical Morningstar Rating
AbbVie Inc ABBV 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Dec 2023 Nov 2023 Oct 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Jul 2023 Jun 2023 May 2023 Apr 2023 Mar 2023 Feb 2023 Jan 2023
- - - QQ QQ QQ QQQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ
Dec 2022 Nov 2022 Oct 2022 Sep 2022 Aug 2022 Jul 2022 Jun 2022 May 2022 Apr 2022 Mar 2022 Feb 2022 Jan 2022
QQ QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ QQ QQ Q QQ QQ
Dec 2021 Nov 2021 Oct 2021 Sep 2021 Aug 2021 Jul 2021 Jun 2021 May 2021 Apr 2021 Mar 2021 Feb 2021 Jan 2021
QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2020 Nov 2020 Oct 2020 Sep 2020 Aug 2020 Jul 2020 Jun 2020 May 2020 Apr 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Jan 2020
QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ
Dec 2019 Nov 2019 Oct 2019 Sep 2019 Aug 2019 Jul 2019 Jun 2019 May 2019 Apr 2019 Mar 2019 Feb 2019 Jan 2019
QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQQ QQQQQ QQQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ
Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018 Jul 2018 Jun 2018 May 2018 Apr 2018 Mar 2018 Feb 2018 Jan 2018
QQQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ

Eli Lilly and Co LLY 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Dec 2023 Nov 2023 Oct 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Jul 2023 Jun 2023 May 2023 Apr 2023 Mar 2023 Feb 2023 Jan 2023
- - - Q QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ
Dec 2022 Nov 2022 Oct 2022 Sep 2022 Aug 2022 Jul 2022 Jun 2022 May 2022 Apr 2022 Mar 2022 Feb 2022 Jan 2022
QQ Q Q QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2021 Nov 2021 Oct 2021 Sep 2021 Aug 2021 Jul 2021 Jun 2021 May 2021 Apr 2021 Mar 2021 Feb 2021 Jan 2021
QQ QQ QQ QQQ QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ
Dec 2020 Nov 2020 Oct 2020 Sep 2020 Aug 2020 Jul 2020 Jun 2020 May 2020 Apr 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Jan 2020
QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2019 Nov 2019 Oct 2019 Sep 2019 Aug 2019 Jul 2019 Jun 2019 May 2019 Apr 2019 Mar 2019 Feb 2019 Jan 2019
QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ QQ
Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018 Jul 2018 Jun 2018 May 2018 Apr 2018 Mar 2018 Feb 2018 Jan 2018
QQQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ

Johnson & Johnson JNJ 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Dec 2023 Nov 2023 Oct 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Jul 2023 Jun 2023 May 2023 Apr 2023 Mar 2023 Feb 2023 Jan 2023
- - - QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2022 Nov 2022 Oct 2022 Sep 2022 Aug 2022 Jul 2022 Jun 2022 May 2022 Apr 2022 Mar 2022 Feb 2022 Jan 2022
QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2021 Nov 2021 Oct 2021 Sep 2021 Aug 2021 Jul 2021 Jun 2021 May 2021 Apr 2021 Mar 2021 Feb 2021 Jan 2021
QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ
Dec 2020 Nov 2020 Oct 2020 Sep 2020 Aug 2020 Jul 2020 Jun 2020 May 2020 Apr 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Jan 2020
QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ QQQ QQ QQ QQ QQQQ QQQ QQ
Dec 2019 Nov 2019 Oct 2019 Sep 2019 Aug 2019 Jul 2019 Jun 2019 May 2019 Apr 2019 Mar 2019 Feb 2019 Jan 2019
QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018 Jul 2018 Jun 2018 May 2018 Apr 2018 Mar 2018 Feb 2018 Jan 2018
QQQ QQ QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 16 of 20

Merck & Co Inc MRK 15 Sep 2023 21:18, UTC

Dec 2023 Nov 2023 Oct 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Jul 2023 Jun 2023 May 2023 Apr 2023 Mar 2023 Feb 2023 Jan 2023
- - - QQQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ
Dec 2022 Nov 2022 Oct 2022 Sep 2022 Aug 2022 Jul 2022 Jun 2022 May 2022 Apr 2022 Mar 2022 Feb 2022 Jan 2022
QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ
Dec 2021 Nov 2021 Oct 2021 Sep 2021 Aug 2021 Jul 2021 Jun 2021 May 2021 Apr 2021 Mar 2021 Feb 2021 Jan 2021
QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ
Dec 2020 Nov 2020 Oct 2020 Sep 2020 Aug 2020 Jul 2020 Jun 2020 May 2020 Apr 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Jan 2020
QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ
Dec 2019 Nov 2019 Oct 2019 Sep 2019 Aug 2019 Jul 2019 Jun 2019 May 2019 Apr 2019 Mar 2019 Feb 2019 Jan 2019
QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ
Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018 Jul 2018 Jun 2018 May 2018 Apr 2018 Mar 2018 Feb 2018 Jan 2018
QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ

© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 17 of 20

Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

Overview turns on invested capital (or ROIC) over and above our es- rive our annual free cash flow forecast.
At the heart of our valuation system is a detailed projec- timate of a firm’s cost of capital, or weighted average
Stage II: Fade
tion of a company’s future cash flows, resulting from our cost of capital (or WACC). Without a moat, profits are
The second stage of our model is the period it will take
analysts’ research. Analysts create custom industry and more susceptible to competition. We have identified five
the company’s return on new invested capital—the re-
company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sources of economic moats: intangible assets, switching
turn on capital of the next dollar invested (“RONIC”)—to
sheet, and capital investment assumptions into our glob- costs, network effect, cost advantage, and efficient scale.
decline (or rise) to its cost of capital. During the Stage II
ally standardized, proprietary discounted cash flow, or
Companies with a narrow moat are those we believe are period, we use a formula to approximate cash flows in
DCF, modeling templates. We use scenario analysis, inde-
more likely than not to achieve normalized excess returns lieu of explicitly modeling the income statement, balance
pth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other
for at least the next 10 years. Wide-moat companies are sheet, and cash flow statement as we do in Stage I. The
analytical tools to augment this process. Moreover, we
those in which we have very high confidence that excess length of the second stage depends on the strength of
think analyzing valuation through discounted cash flows
returns will remain for 10 years, with excess returns more the company’s economic moat. We forecast this period to
presents a better lens for viewing cyclical companies,
likely than not to remain for at least 20 years. The longer last anywhere from one year (for companies with no eco-
high-growth firms, businesses with finite lives (e.g.,
a firm generates economic profits, the higher its intrinsic nomic moat) to 10–15 years or more (for wide-moat com-
mines), or companies expected to generate negative
value. We believe low-quality, no-moat companies will panies). During this period, cash flows are forecast using
earnings over the next few years. That said, we don’t dis-
see their normalized returns gravitate toward the firm’s four assumptions: an average growth rate for EBI over the
miss multiples altogether but rather use them as support-
cost of capital more quickly than companies with moats. period, a normalized investment rate, average return on
ing cross-checks for our DCF-based fair value estimates.
new invested capital (RONIC), and the number of years
We also acknowledge that DCF models offer their own
When considering a company's moat, we also assess until perpetuity, when excess returns cease. The invest-
challenges (including a potential proliferation of estim-
whether there is a substantial threat of value destruction, ment rate and return on new invested capital decline un-
ated inputs and the possibility that the method may miss
stemming from risks related to ESG, industry disruption, til a perpetuity value is calculated. In the case of firms
shortterm market-price movements), but we believe these
financial health, or other idiosyncratic issues. In this con- that do not earn their cost of capital, we assume marginal
negatives are mitigated by deep analysis and our
text, a risk is considered potentially value destructive if its ROICs rise to the firm’s cost of capital (usually attribut-
longterm approach.
occurrence would eliminate a firm’s economic profit on a able to less reinvestment), and we may truncate the
cumulative or midcycle basis. If we deem the probability second stage.
Morningstar’s equity research group (”we,” “our”) be-
lieves that a company’s intrinsic worth results from the of occurrence sufficiently high, we would not characterize
the company as possessing an economic moat. Stage III: Perpetuity
future cash flows it can generate. The Morningstar Rating
Once a company’s marginal ROIC hits its cost of capital,
for stocks identifies stocks trading at a discount or premi-
2. Estimated Fair Value we calculate a continuing value, using a standard per-
um to their intrinsic worth—or fair value estimate, in
Combining our analysts’ financial forecasts with the petuity formula. At perpetuity, we assume that any
Morningstar terminology. Five-star stocks sell for the
firm’s economic moat helps us assess how long returns growth or decline or investment in the business neither
biggest risk adjusted discount to their fair values, where-
on invested capital are likely to exceed the firm’s cost of creates nor destroys value and that any new investment
as 1-star stocks trade at premiums to their intrinsic worth.
capital. Returns of firms with a wide economic moat rat- provides a return in line with estimated WACC.
Four key components drive the Morningstar rating: (1) our ing are assumed to fade to the perpetuity period over a
longer period of time than the returns of narrow-moat Because a dollar earned today is worth more than a dollar
assessment of the firm’s economic moat, (2) our estimate
firms, and both will fade slower than no-moat firms, in- earned tomorrow, we discount our projections of cash
of the stock’s fair value, (3) our uncertainty around that
creasing our estimate of their intrinsic value. flows in stages I, II, and III to arrive at a total present
fair value estimate and (4) the current market price. This
value of expected future cash flows. Because we are
process ultimately culminates in our singlepoint star rat-
Our model is divided into three distinct stages: modeling free cash flow to the firm—representing cash
ing.
available to provide a return to all capital providers—we
discount future cash flows using the WACC, which is a
1. Economic Moat Stage I: Explicit Forecast
weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and pre-
The concept of an economic moat plays a vital role not In this stage, which can last five to 10 years, analysts
ferred stock (and any other funding sources), using ex-
only in our qualitative assessment of a firm’s long-term make full financial statement forecasts, including items
pected future proportionate long-term, market-value
investment potential, but also in the actual calculation of such as revenue, profit margins, tax rates, changes in
weights.
our fair value estimates. An economic moat is a structural workingcapital accounts, and capital spending. Based on
feature that allows a firm to sustain excess profits over a these projections, we calculate earnings before interest,
3. Uncertainty Around That Fair Value Estimate
long period of time. We define economic profits as re- after taxes (EBI) and the net new investment (NNI) to de-
Morningstar’s Uncertainty Rating is designed to capture
the range of potential outcomes for a company’s intrinsic
Morningstar Equity Research Star Rating Methodology
value. This rating is used to assign the margin of safety
required before investing, which in turn explicitly drives
our stock star rating system. The Uncertainty Rating is
aimed at identifying the confidence we should have in as-
signing a fair value estimate for a given stock.

Our Uncertainty Rating is meant to take into account any-


thing that can increase the potential dispersion of future
outcomes for the intrinsic value of a company, and any-
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 18 of 20

Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

thing that can affect our ability to accurately predict Morningstar Equity Research Star Rating Methodology
these outcomes. The rating begins with a suggested rat-
ing produced by a quantitative process based on the trail-
ing 12-month standard deviation of daily stock returns.
An analyst overlay is then applied, with analysts using
the suggested rating, historical rating data, and their own
knowledge of the company to inform them as they make
the final Uncertainty Rating decision. Ultimately, the rat-
ing decision rests with the analyst. Analysts take into ac-
count many characteristics when making their final de-
cision, including cyclical factors, operational and financial
factors such as leverage, company-specific events, ESG
risks, and anything else that might increase the potential
dispersion of future outcomes and our ability to estimate
those outcomes.

Our recommended margin of safety—the discount to fair


value demanded before we’d recommend buying or
selling the stock—widens as our uncertainty of the es-
timated value of the equity increases. The more uncertain
we are about the potential dispersion of outcomes, the
greater the discount we require relative to our estimate of
the value of the firm before we would recommend the
purchase of the shares. In addition, the Uncertainty Rat-
ing provides guidance in portfolio construction based on
risk tolerance. Once we determine the fair value estimate of a stock, we justed return is highly likely over a multiyear time frame.
compare it with the stock’s current market price on a Scenario analysis developed by our analysts indicates
Our Uncertainty Ratings are: Low, Medium, High, Very daily basis, and the star rating is automatically re-calcu- that the current market price represents an excessively
High, and Extreme. lated at the market close on every day the market on pessimistic outlook, limiting downside risk and maximiz-
which the stock is listed is open. Our analysts keep close ing upside potential.
Margin of Safety
tabs on the companies they follow, and, based on thor-
Qualitative Analysis
QRating ough and ongoing analysis, raise or lower their fair value QQQQ We believe appreciation beyond a fair risk-ad-
Uncertainty Ratings QQQQQRating
estimates as warranted. justed return is likely.
Low 20% Discount 25% Premium
Medium 30% Discount 35% Premium QQQ Indicates our belief that investors are likely to re-
Please note, there is no predefined distribution of stars.
High 40% Discount 55% Premium ceive a fair risk-adjusted return (approximately cost of
That is, the percentage of stocks that earn 5 stars can
Very High 50% Discount 75% Premium equity).
fluctuate daily, so the star ratings, in the aggregate, can
Extreme 75% Discount 300% Premium
serve as a gauge of the broader market’s valuation. When
there are many 5-star stocks, the stock market as a whole QQ We believe investors are likely to receive a less than
Our uncertainty rating is based on the interquartile range, fair risk-adjusted return.
is more undervalued, in our opinion, than when very few
or the middle 50% of potential outcomes, covering the
companies garner our highest rating.
25th percentile–75th percentile. This means that when a Q Indicates a high probability of undesirable risk-adjus-
stock hits 5 stars, we expect there is a 75% chance that ted returns from the current market price over a multiyear
We expect that if our base-case assumptions are true the
the intrinsic value of that stock lies above the current time frame, based on our analysis. Scenario analysis by
market price will converge on our fair value estimate over
market price. Similarly, when a stock hits 1 star, we ex- our analysts indicates that the market is pricing in an ex-
time generally within three years (although it is im-
pect there is a 75% chance that the intrinsic value of that cessively optimistic outlook, limiting upside potential and
possible to predict the exact time frame in which market
stock lies below the current market price. leaving the investor exposed to Capital loss.
prices may adjust).

4. Market Price Our star ratings are guideposts to a broad audience and Other Definitions
The market prices used in this analysis and noted in the individuals must consider their own specific investment Last Price: Price of the stock as of the close of the mar-
report come from exchange on which the stock is listed goals, risk tolerance, tax situation, time horizon, income ket of the last trading day before date of the report.
which we believe is a reliable source. needs, and complete investment portfolio, among other
factors. Capital Allocation Rating: Our Capital Allocation (or
For more details about our methodology, please go to Stewardship) Rating represents our assessment of the
https://shareholders.morningstar.com The Morningstar Star Ratings for stocks are defined be- quality of management’s capital allocation, with particu-
low: lar emphasis on the firm’s balance sheet, investments,
Morningstar Star Rating for Stocks QQQQQ We believe appreciation beyond a fair risk ad- and shareholder distributions. Analysts consider compan-
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 19 of 20

Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

ies’ investment strategy and valuation, balance sheet starting at zero (no risk) with lower scores representing mendations made herein may not be suitable for all in-
management, and dividend and share buyback policies. less unmanaged risk and, for 95% of cases, the unman- vestors: recipients must exercise their own independent
Corporate governance factors are only considered if they aged ESG Risk score is below 50. judgment as to the suitability of such investments and re-
are likely to materially impact shareholder value, though commendations in the light of their own investment ob-
either the balance sheet, investment, or shareholder dis- Based on their quantitative scores, companies are jectives, experience, taxation status and financial posi-
tributions. Analysts assign one of three ratings: "Exem- grouped into one of five Risk Categories (negligible, low, tion.
plary", "Standard", or "Poor". Analysts judge Capital Alloc- medium, high, severe). These risk categories are absolute,
ation from an equity holder’s perspective. Ratings are de- meaning that a ‘high risk’ assessment reflects a compar- The information, data, analyses and opinions presented
termined on a forward looking and absolute basis. The able degree of unmanaged ESG risk across all subindus- herein are not warranted to be accurate, correct, com-
Standard rating is most common as most managers will tries covered. plete or timely. Unless otherwise provided in a separate
exhibit neither exceptionally strong nor poor capital alloc- agreement, neither Morningstar, Inc. or the Equity Re-
ation. The ESG Risk Rating Assessment is a visual representa- search Group represents that the report contents meet all
tion of Sustainalytics ESG Risk Categories on a 1 to 5 of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applic-
Capital Allocation (or Stewardship) analysis published pri- scale. Companies with Negligible Risk = 5 Globes, Low able in the jurisdiction the recipient is located.
or to Dec. 9, 2020, was determined using a different pro- Risk = 4, Medium Risk = 3 Globes, High Risk = 2 Globes,
cess. Beyond investment strategy, financial leverage, and Severe Risk = 1 Globe. For more information, please visit Except as otherwise required by law or provided for in a
dividend and share buyback policies, analysts also con- sustainalytics.com/esg-ratings/ separate agreement, the analyst, Morningstar, Inc. and
sidered execution, compensation, related party transac- the Equity Research Group and their officers, directors
tions, and accounting practices in the rating. Ratings should not be used as the sole basis in evaluating and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any
a company or security. Ratings involve unknown risks and trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from,
Capital Allocation Rating: Our Capital Allocation (or uncertainties which may cause our expectations not to or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions
Stewardship) Rating represents our assessment of the occur or to differ significantly from what was expected within the report. The Equity Research Group encourages
quality of management’s capital allocation, with particu- and should not be considered an offer or solicitation to recipients recipients of this report to read all relevant is-
lar emphasis on the firm’s balance sheet, investments, buy or sell a security. sue documents (e.g., prospectus) pertaining to the secur-
and shareholder distributions. Analysts consider compan- ity concerned, including without limitation, information
ies’ investment strategy and valuation, balance sheet Risk Warning relevant to its investment objectives, risks, and costs be-
management, and dividend and share buyback policies. Please note that investments in securities are subject to fore making an in vestment decision and when deemed
Corporate governance factors are only considered if they market and other risks and there is no assurance or guar- necessary, to seek the advice of a legal, tax, and/or ac-
are likely to materially impact shareholder value, though antee that the intended investment objectives will be counting professional.
either the balance sheet, investment, or shareholder dis- achieved. Past performance of a security may or may not
tributions. Analysts assign one of three ratings: "Exem- be sustained in future and is no indication of future per- The Report and its contents are not directed to, or inten-
plary", "Standard", or "Poor". Analysts judge Capital Alloc- formance. A security investment return and an investor’s ded for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who
ation from an equity holder’s perspective. Ratings are de- principal value will fluctuate so that, when redeemed, an is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
termined on a forward looking and absolute basis. The investor’s shares may be worth more or less than their country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, pub-
Standard rating is most common as most managers will original cost. A security’s current investment performance lication, availability or use would be contrary to law or
exhibit neither exceptionally strong nor poor capital alloc- may be lower or higher than the investment performance regulation or which would subject Morningstar, Inc. or its
ation. noted within the report. Morningstar’s Uncertainty Rating affiliates to any registration or licensing requirements in
serves as a useful data point with respect to sensitivity such jurisdiction.
Capital Allocation (or Stewardship) analysis published pri- analysis of the assumptions used in our determining a fair
or to Dec. 9, 2020, was determined using a different pro- value price. Where this report is made available in a language other
cess. Beyond investment strategy, financial leverage, and than English and in the case of inconsistencies between
dividend and share buyback policies, analysts also con- the English and translated versions of the report, the Eng-
sidered execution, compensation, related party transac- General Disclosure lish version will control and supersede any ambiguities
tions, and accounting practices in the rating. associated with any part or section of a report that has
Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, re-
cipients accessing this report may only use it in the coun- been issued in a foreign language. Neither the analyst,
Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating Assessment:The ESG Morningstar, Inc., or the Equity Research Group guaran-
try in which the Morningstar distributor is based. Unless
Risk Rating Assessment is provided by Sustainalytics; a tees the accuracy of the translations.
stated otherwise, the original distributor of the report is
Morningstar company.
Morningstar Research Services LLC, a U.S.A. domiciled
financial institution. This report may be distributed in certain localities, coun-
Sustainalytics’ ESG Risk Ratings measure the degree to tries and/or jurisdictions (“Territories”) by independent
which company’s economic value at risk is driven by en- third parties or independent intermediaries and/or distrib-
This report is for informational purposes only and has no
vironment, social and governance (ESG) factors. utors (“Distributors”). Such Distributors are not acting as
regard to the specific investment objectives, financial
situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. This agents or representatives of the analyst, Morningstar,
Sustainalytics analyzes over 1,300 data points to assess a Inc. or the Equity Research Group. In Territories where a
publication is intended to provide information to assist in-
company’s exposure to and management of ESG risks. In Distributor distributes our report, the Distributor is solely
stitutional investors in making their own investment de-
other words, ESG Risk Ratings measures a company’s un- responsible for complying with all applicable regulations,
cisions, not to provide investment advice to any specific
managed ESG Risks represented as a quantitative score. laws, rules, circulars, codes and guidelines established by
investor. Therefore, investments discussed and recom-
Unmanaged Risk is measured on an open-ended scale
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
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Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 16 Sep 2023 04:26, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 20 of 20

Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

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