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Assingment PLO1

This document contains 5 multi-part probability questions assigned as homework for an Applied Probability course. The questions cover topics like calculating probabilities of events based on given probabilities, independence of events, conditional probabilities, and maximizing probabilities. The assignment is for a Spring 2022 semester and is worth a total of 25 marks.

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JAVED AKHTAR REG.2020 UET NFC FD ELECT 76.
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29 views2 pages

Assingment PLO1

This document contains 5 multi-part probability questions assigned as homework for an Applied Probability course. The questions cover topics like calculating probabilities of events based on given probabilities, independence of events, conditional probabilities, and maximizing probabilities. The assignment is for a Spring 2022 semester and is worth a total of 25 marks.

Uploaded by

JAVED AKHTAR REG.2020 UET NFC FD ELECT 76.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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NFC Institute of Engineering and Fertilizer Research, Faisalabad

Department of Electrical Engineering


Course Name: Applied Probability Course Code: EE-302
CQI Assignment for PLO1
Session Semester Total Marks CLO PLO Page No
2020 Spring 2022 25 1 1 1 of 2

1. A box contains six 40-W bulbs, five 60-W bulbs, and four 75-W bulbs. If bulbs are
selected one by one in random order, what is the probability that at least two bulbs
must be selected to obtain one that is rated 75 W?

2. Most mornings, Victor checks the weather report before deciding whether to carry an
umbrella. If the forecast is “rain,” the probability of actually having rain that day is 80%.
On the other hand, if the forecast is “no rain,” the probability of it actually raining is
equal to 10%. During fall and winter the forecast is “rain” 70% of the time and during
summer and spring it is 20%.
a) One day, Victor missed the forecast and it rained. What is the probability that the
forecast was “rain” if it was during the winter? What is the probability that the
forecast was “rain” if it was during the summer?
b) The probability of Victor missing the morning forecast is equal to 0.2 on any day
in the year. If he misses the forecast, Victor will flip a fair coin to decide whether
to carry an mumbrella. On any day of a given season he sees the forecast, if it says
“rain” he will always carry an umbrella, and if it says “no rain,” he will not carry
an umbrella. Are the events “Victor is carrying an umbrella,” and “The forecast is
no rain” independent? Does your answer depend on the season?
c) Victor is carrying an umbrella and it is not raining. What is the probability that he
saw the forecast? Does it depend on the season?

3. You have a fair five-sided die. The sides of the die are numbered from 1 to 5. Each die
roll is independent of all others, and all faces are equally likely to come out on top when
the die is rolled. Suppose you roll the die twice.
a) Let event A to be “the total of two rolls is 10”, event B be “at least one roll resulted
in 5”,and event C be “at least one roll resulted in 1”.
i. Is event A independent of event B?
ii. Is event A independent of event C?
b) Let event D be “the total of two rolls is 7”, event E be “the difference between the
two roll outcomes is exactly 1”, and event F be “the second roll resulted in a higher
number than the first roll”.
i. Are events E and F independent?
ii. Are events E and F independent given event D?

4. The local widget factory is having a blowout widget sale. Everything must go, old and
new. The factory has 500 old widgets, and 1500 new widgets in stock. The problem is
that 15% of the old widgets are defective, and 5% of the new ones are defective as well.
You can assume that widgets are selected at random when an order comes in. You are
the first customer since the sale was announced.
NFC Institute of Engineering and Fertilizer Research, Faisalabad
Department of Electrical Engineering
Course Name: Applied Probability Course Code: EE-302
CQI Assignment for PLO1
Session Semester Total Marks CLO PLO Page No
2020 Spring 2022 25 1 1 2 of 2

a) You flip a fair coin once to decide whether to buy old or new widgets. You order two
widgets of the same type, chosen based on the outcome of the coin toss. What is the
probability that they will both be defective?
b) Given that both widgets turn out to be defective, what is the probability that they were
old widgets?

5. Oscar has lost his dog in either forest A (with a priori probability 0.4) or in forest B
(with a priori probability 0.6). On any given day, if the dog is in A and Oscar spends
a day searching for it in A, the conditional probability that he will find the dog that day
is 0.25. Similarly, if the dog is in B and Oscar spends a day looking for it there, the
conditional probability that he will find the dog that day is 0.15. The dog cannot go
from one forest to the other. Oscar can search only in the daytime, and he can travel
from one forest to the other only at night.
a) In which forest should Oscar look to maximize the probability he finds his dog on
the first day of the search?
b) Given that Oscar looked in A on the first day but didn’t find his dog, what is the
probability that the dog is in A?
c) If Oscar flips a fair coin to determine where to look on the first day and finds the
dog on the first day, what is the probability that he looked in A?
d) If the dog is alive and not found by the Nth day of the search, it will die that evening
𝑁
with probability 𝑁+2. Oscar has decided to look in A for the first two days. What is
the probability that he will find a live dog for the first time on the second day?

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