Australian Government Department of Defence Defence Science and Technology Organisation Limitations of Guns as a Defence against Manoeuvring Air Weapons Christian Wachsberger, Michael Lucas and Alexander Krstic DSTO-TN-0565 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A Appioved for Public Release Listribution Unlimited BEST AVAILABLE COPYDefence Science and Technology Organisation Limitations of Guns as a Defence against Manoeuvring Air Weapons Christian Wachsberger, Michael Lucas and Alexander Krstic Weapons Systems Division Systems Sciences Laboratory DSTO-TN-0565 ABSTRACT In the near future, strategic and other critical assets will be subject to attack from a new range of air threats, including highly accurate aircraft-launched weapons that offer long stand-off ranges and which are capable of travelling at high speed as well as manoeuvring at high g rates. This study uses simple probability theory to determine the relative utility of current generation air- defence guns against this type of highly manocuvrable weapon. The rationale for this study is that whilst guns may have the advantages of offering a low cost-per-shot and reasonable magazine capacities, they are also severely limited in their abilities as they are only designed to fire ata predicted intercept point in space. Asa result, should the target alter its direction during, an engagement, the target will no longer pass through the projectle's flight path, APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE AQ Fot-12- 171 20041008 560Published by DSTO Systems Sciences Laboratory PO Box 1500 Edinburgh South Australia 5111 Australia Telephone: (08) 8259 5555 Fax: (08) 8259 6567 © Commomvealth of Austratia 2008 AR-O13-117 June 2008 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASELimitations of Guns as a Defence against Manoeuvring Air Weapons Executive Summary In the near future strategic and other critical assets will be subject to attack from a new range of air threats including highly accurate aircraft-launched weapons that offer long stand-off ranges, and are capable of travelling at high speed and manoeuvring at high g rates. ‘This paper examines the value of current generation air-defence guns against this type of highly manoeuvrable stand-off weapon (SOW). The rationale for this study is that whilst guns may have the advantages of offering a low cost-per-shot and reasonable magazine ‘capacities, they are also severely limited in their abilities as they are only designed to fire at a predicted intercept point in space. As a result, should the target alter its direction during an engagement, the target will no longer pass through the projectile's flight path, This study uses simple probability theory to determine the number of gun munitions that would be required for a 50% chance of hitting a generic SOW capable of conducting manoeuvres in any direction at the precise momentan air defence gun would have begun to open fire. Based on this approach, ithas been determined that even under ideal conditions, the best current generation air defence guns, which either employ air bursting munitions with their greater area of influence, or low drag munitions fired from guns with extremely fastcyclic rates, would have little likelihood of success against a stand-off weapon capable of manoeuvring at high g rates, at engagement ranges greater than 500 m, Even then, due consideration would have to be given to any practical limitations and logistics associated with the number of guns that could be deployed on the battlefield and on the mobility of any such arrangements, Itmustbe pointed out thathad the additional effects of high SOW transitspeeds (ie. mach 5+), gun and computational error budgets as well as target terminal effectiveness been taken into account, there would be little doubt that none of the current generation air defence gun systems would have had any chance of success at preventing fast and manoeuvrable SOWs from reaching their intended target.Authors Christian Wachsberger Weapons Systems Division Christian Wachsberger graduated from the South Australian Institute of Technology (notw the University of South Australia) in 1981 with a degree in Applied Science majoring in Applied Physics. He worked for two and a half years as a Research Assistant conducting research for the Photocopying Industry. Thereafter he joined Defence Science Technology Organisation as a Professional Officer where he gained considerable training and expertise in gut systems with particular emphasis on research involving small arms ammunition and weapons. In June 1998 he was appointed as the Explosives Safety Officer for Weapons Systems Division to maintain, improve and enforce safety standards associated with all explosives ‘operations undertaken at DSTO, eventually returning to perform R&D activities in adonnced weapons concepts in 2003. Michael A. Lucas Weapons Systems Division Dr Lucas woas born and raised in the Gippsland region of Victoria. Dr Lucas obtained his B.Se.(Hons) and Ph.D. from the University of ‘Melbourne majoring in Physics and is a Fellow of the Institute of Pliysics in London. For five years from 1983 Dr Lucas woas the principal research scientist for Chamber Ridge Pty. Ltd. developing ‘material analytical equipment based on plasma optical analysis. For ‘two years from 1988 Dr Lucrs lead a development team working on biomedical sensorsat the University of Tasmania. Front 1990 to 2000 Dr Lucas has been a Senior Research Scientist with DSTO working in the areas of Guided weapon systems analysis and directed energy ‘weapons. Major Areas of responsibility during this period included support to the AIM 7 Sparrow weapon system, running Australia’s Ground Based Air Defence studies and support and investigations of the use of High Energy Lasers as part of weapon systems, Dr Lucas {from 2000 on has been a Principal Research Scientist within the Weapons Systems Division and is Head of the Advanced Concepts Group as well as at present the STCC for FRAC L10,Alexander R. Krstic Weapons Systems Division Having obtained his B.A., B.Sc,, and First Class Honours degrees {from the Flinders University of South Australia, Alexander Krstic ‘wns then awarded a Defence Postgraduate Research Fellowship by the DSTO to undertake full-time Doctoral studies in the area of Novel High Energy-Density Propellants. Having completed his Doctorate in 1994, he returned to Explosive Ordnance Division's Weapons Technology Group, working in the area of Small Arms weaponry and Human Vulnerability. After a lengthy period in the Terminal Effects Group, where he authored several international Patents covering the ‘Weapons Systems Division's Human Surrogate Technologies, he ‘moved to his current position as a Senior Research Scientist in the Advanced Concepts Group. Dr Krstic’s current research activities now focus around Ground Based Air Defence and the potential contribution that High Energy Lasers might bring to the cause.1. INTRODUCTION... 2. APPROACH 21 Ground Based Air Defence Gun Systems. 22 Representative Air Targets. 23 Hit Probability for stationary targets 24 Hit Probability vs Kill Probability. 25 Dealing with maneuvering targets... 3. RESULTS 31 Non-manoewvring SOW... 311 3.12 Firing non 3.13 Air bursting ammunition 3.2 Manoeuvring SOW... 321 manoeuvring target. 3.22 Asingle gun firing non-air bursting ammunition at the side of the manoeuvring target. 3.23 Multiple guns engaging the front face of a manoeuvring target with non-air bursting ammunition... 324 Multiple guns engaging the side of a manoeuvring target with non- air bursting ammunition... 325 Multiple guns engaging the front face of a manoeuvring target with air bursting ammunition... 326 Multiple guns engaging the side of a manoeuvring target with air bursting ammunitior 4, DISCUSSION. 41 Non-manoeuvring SOW. 42 Manoeuvring SOW... 4.21 target 422 Multiple guns engaging a manoeuvring target with non-air bursting ammunition . 423 Multiple guns engaging a mancewvring target with air bursting ammunition 5. CONCLUSIONS seen 6. REFERENCES. APPENDIX A: TIME OF FLIGHT DATA. : AA. Time of flight (ToF) data for 12.7 mm, 20 mm, 25 mm and 30 mm ammunition (acquired from technical reports) A2. Time of flight (ToF) data for 35 mm, 40 mm and 76 mm ammunition (acquired from technical reports) .. A.3, Time of flight graphs for 12.7 mm through to 76 mm ammunition,DSTO-IN-0565 1, Introduction During World War If manually aimed, rapid-fire guns provided an effective defence against the relatively large, slow and cumbersome bomber aircraft of the time. Bomb delivery proved to be particularly inaccurate owing to the unguided nature of the iron ‘bombs that were carried and their dependence on aircraft release conditions (i. airspeed and altitude) and prevailing wind conditions. As a result aircraft needed to travel in groups and drop large quantities of bombs just to deliver a modest tactical result. Furthermore, bomber aircraft were extremely vulnerable to damage by attack from flak ‘guns (guns that fired high-explosives-filled shells that were fitted with time adjustable fuzes so that they would burst at predetermined altitudes). The resulting attrition in combination with the psychological trauma aircrews faced when being subjected toa hail of gunfire and fragments, had reduced the effectiveness of the bombing campaigns to the extent that damage to their adversaries’ industrial and military capabilities proved minimal. ‘Thirty years later different technologies were needed to mount credible air defences against the jet bomber aircraft of the day. These aircraft could travel at stratospheric altitudes (e.g, B52 Stratofortress) or fly close to the ground using terrain following radar to guide them (e.g, F111 strike aircraft) and could deliver ordnance onto selective ground targets with significantly greater levels of precision. High-speed, strike aircraft would only be exposed to any line-of-sight ground-based weapon systems for short periods of time, however, improved tracking and engagement radars together with optical sighting systems enabled remotely controlled guns to remain effective. ‘Yet another thirty years have passed and the technology that was designed for warfare in the seventies no longer remains suited to dealing with modern and emerging ait weapon systems. Strategic and other critical assets will be subject to attack from anew range of air threats and these include: stealth aircraft, armed helicopters, + highly accurate aircraft-launched weapons that emit low RF and IR signatures, offer ong stand-off ranges (beyond 150 km), are capable of travelling at high speed (mach 5+) and can manoeuvre at high g forces, high-speed, long-range cruise missiles, armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), surface-launched missiles, ballistic artillery missiles, precision-guided, long-range artillery shells, large numbers of low cost sub-munitions, and highly coordinated attacks involving combinations of the aforementioned weapon systems,DSTO-TN-0565 ‘The future air threat will therefore be hard to see, present in high densities, intelligent, accurate and highly lethal. This paper will examine the value of current generation air-defence guns against a nominal future air threat - the long-range and highly manoeuvrable stand-off weapon (GOW). The rationale for this study being that while guns have the advantages of offering a low cost per shot and reasonable magazine capacities they are also severely limited in their abilities as they are only designed to fire ata predicted intercept point in space. As a result, should the target alter its direction during an engagement, the target is no longer likely to pass directly through the projectile's flight path, 2. Approach 2.1 Ground Based Air Defence Gun Systems A literature review of current ground-based air defence (GBAD) guns used by NATO countries and their allies has revealed the existence of gun systems with calibres ranging, from 12.7 mm through to 76 mm. A list of GBAD guns together with a summary of some of their ammunition details and important characteristics are shown in Table 1. ‘Guns with calibres less than 30 mm tend to use ammunition designs that require them to make direct contact with a target in order to inflict damage. These include non explosive varieties ie. ball, armour piercing (AP), sabotted light armour piercing (SLAP), armour piercing discarding sabot (APDS) and fin-stabilised armour piercing discarding sabot (FAPDS) as well as their tracered variants. High order and low order explosive filled rounds include armour piercing incendiaries (API), multi-purpose (MP), high explosive incendiary (HEI) and semi-armour piercing high explosive incendiary (SAPHED ammunition and their tracered variants. These explosively based ammunition families use either a mechanically or a pyrotechnically initiated fuze that functions upon contact witha hard surface. Some of these rounds also include a self-destruct mechanism, which initiates their HE content after a specified time. This is an in-built safety feature designed to prevent the dispersal of unexploded ordnance onto the ground should it fail to successfully engage its target. A range of new munitions have also appeared on the market that incorporate aerodynamic improvements (ie. low drag) thereby reducing, time-of- flight (ToF) characteristics and increasing their residual kinetic energy cf. traditional designs. Guns with calibres greater than 30 mm tend to be equipped with air bursting munitions (ABM). These are the direct descendants of the flak guns seen during WWII. When ‘compared to their WWII ancestors there have been notable improvements in ammunition design in terms of their propulsive elements (exhibiting both increased and more consistent projectile muzzle velocities), projectile aerodynamic efficiency (ie. reduced drag), HE filling (featuring reduced sensitivity and increased blast effectiveness), andDSTO-IN-0565 projectile construction to yield optimum fragmentation size and distribution. There have also been significant improvements in fuze design. Simple ABMs use variable time-set fuzes that must be manually adjusted prior to launch. Other types of ABMs incorporate infra-red fuzes, which are designed to initiate when a shell comes within sensing range of ahot source, such as a jet engine. A most recent design is the advanced hitefficiency and dispersion (AHEAD) ammunition, Which incorporates an electronically timed fuzing system that programs itself automatically during a firing. The fuze programming is directly linked to the gun's fire control and target acquisition systems that determines the likely range of the target and ‘compares this with the time-of-flight characteristics of the round being fired, automatically ‘compensating the fuze time function for any variations to each round’s actual muzzle velocity.DSTO-TN-0565 Table 1. Characteristics of GBAD guns and their ammunition, Gan System a7 x Sx iam xia fox fx Bama poemm loomm 103mm —{KBA cannon |KBBOerikon 173mm [KD 1.70 Bofors Oto Melara IBrowning |Vakan Air|(Gncludes [Breda Gatling [Oeriiton [(Gepard) eannon) —_ {OTOMATIC lieavy [Defence Bushmaster (Gun {Contraves [Machine [System [Chain Gun) [ABM Gun Icon |(VADS) \ovH18) Rate of fre 150-550 [5000 600 Is000%2 [Unknown [550x2 —_faH0-300 [130 (shots per ‘minte) Quoted iim @ f2Fmm @ JOT mib@ [Unknown [Unknown [Unknown [Unknown — [Unknown Dispersion {550m (F1 [200m [2000 m(rGU- fat) (ean fsa Radius) [SAPHErn) lo75 mise [200 maar790/ lpcu-x HEM Muzzle [570 iiasd——i00 Haas (APE) [080 1050 [1035 (PRRRE F058 (AIS velocity |(riaas. |owseas \GapHerry fr270(aMps) (ABM) (AHEAD) [Mk2) lprF) (a/s) [Bat fixer) —froogter frieo axe 175 (HEN) | loo nana] 135 (M791 hi400 IMP) laPD5-7) \rarps) Calculated IETF [Gaknown [ABM | FIET [PRE Mid ISP PF time-of flight Ja-exi07 la-2x107 @ lbesxa0+ lb-Bx10+ axtebxte le=8x102 le-ex03 Jenzixt02 feo26xt0 where laPDs-r range 1x10 lbera04 Je~23 x10 Massof [i298 FSS CHET) — 30 ie 380 | projectile (g) 135 (APDS-7) \ AHEAD) | [550 1) [395 APD) | Namberot [Opt 100 i030, 60, [Unknown — Unknown [Unknown [20% 40 —_[Upto25 [Up to26 rounds in jnoo Durst 4DSTO-IN.0565 2.2 Representative Air Targets Four currently available SOW (albeit non-manoeuvring) are: AGM-65 ‘Maverick’ (length 2490 mm, diameter 305 mm), AS-12 ‘Kegler’ (length 4190 mm, diameter 275 mm), AS-13 ‘Kingbolt (length 5100 mm, diameter 380 mm), and AS-18 ‘Kazoo’ (length 5690 mm, diameter 380 mm). ‘To keep the hit probability calculations simple, a generic SOW target with dimensions of length 2500 mm and diameter 300 mm was selected as this is close to the minimum ‘dimensions for all of the SOW under consideration. No allowances have been made for the wing area or control surfaces (noting for example that the AGM-65 has a wing area as large as 7200 mm), as these would have further complicated the calculations. For the purpose of this exercise the generic SOW is capable of conducting manoeuvres up toa maximum of 10 g. It would also be possible for the SOW to change direction at any stage during its flight, which would include making a manoeuvre at the precise moment ‘an air defence gun would begin to open fire. 2.3 Hit Probability for stationary targets ‘The hit probability of non-bursting projectiles against a stationary target can easily be calculated depending on the size and shape of the target, the number of rounds fired, the dispersion angle characteristics of the gun and the range to the target. This probability is provided that the target is located centrally within a circular symmetrical engagement zone and that normal Gaussian distribution rules apply. No allowances have been made {for the ellipsoid distribution pattern generally seen with guns. ‘The equations used in this study are: Probability of a single hit, against a circular target (frontal aspect), Prwisyel-e 72 q) Where r is the radius of the target in metres, which in this case is represented by the frontal aspect of the target having a radius of 0.15 m, and ¢ is the standard deviation (in metres) calculated for the gun at any given engagement range. As the distribution is identical for multiple shots and a time delay is not considered ‘between shots the hit probability for a burst against a circular target is simply denoted by: Py al Py)” @ Where N equals the number of rounds in a burstDSTO-TN.0565 For this study calculations are made of the number of rounds required to obtain Px = 0.5 or 50%, the definition of Circular Error Probable (CEP), at various ranges up toa maximum ‘of 3000 m, Substituting Pus) with equation (1) and rearranging equation (2) for Pw = 0.5 gives: feo -e 1-(0.5)"" hence eho 20,5 and therefore N=-207/r?n0.5 @ In the case where the target is being engaged side-on the hit probabilities of both the Norizonal end wertial agpects must be calculated separately and then the product Hit probabilities of Phis) are either determined using tables for cumulative normal distribution using the integral: a7 tau Yenc ede Or they can be approximated using the following equation: Prrcrcapros) = Y24Y20~ @) which has a maximum error of 0.4% for values of « between 0.4 and 3.2. ‘As equation (4) is simple to use in numerical calculations it has been used during this, analysis. ‘Therefore substituting equation (4) into (2) gives: vy 1-(0.5)"" =120-e%"" P20. where x represents the target length (horizontal aspect) in metres and y represents the diameter (vertical aspect) in metres.DSTO-IN-0565, Simplifying the expression so that 1-(0.5)"" = AB then (1— 4.B)” 1-AB=(0.5)"" and In(1- 4.B) = 1/N In(0.5) therefore N =In(0.5)/In(1— A.B) i) In all of these cases, calculations have been made for guns having single standard deviation dispersion angles of 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 milli-radians (mrad). These have been determined to cover a broad range of gun types and conditions including exceptionally accurate guns, which exhibit minimal barrel whip and impart negligible cantangles to the projectiles during launch (0.5 mrad), guns with commonplace accuracy (1.0 mrad) and noticeably worn guns (1.5 mrad). Other gun-related errors such as gun jump, muzzle velocity variations, gun training and stabilization variations as well as barrel alignment errors have not been considered. Similarly, computational errors that include target acquisition, tracking prediction algorithm errors and meteorological variations have not been taken into account. Combining these gun-related and computational errors would undoubtedly increase the spread on the target. As the determination of each of these errors is strictly scenario dependent no effort has been made here to accommodate for them, soit can be accepted that the results provided herein would only be representative of the very best possible outcome. Air-bursting munitions, however, need to be considered differently in order to represent the likely effect of a burst on the target. Rather than complicate the calculations for hit probability (which assumes that the attacking projectiles are dimensionless) one option is, to increase the representative dimensions of the target in proportion to the maximum airburst diameter. For example, 40 mm L70 pre-fragmented high explosive (PFHE) ammunition is quoted to have an effective airburst radius of 4.5 m. This would infer thata 40 mm PFHE round would be capable of influencing the target if it passed anywhere within 4.5 m of the target’s exterior surface. In the case of a frontal attack on the generic ‘SOW, the new representative target would therefore possess the equivalent dimensions of a circle having a diameter of 18.3 m, which is twice the diameter of the effective airburst plus the diameter of the original target. Similarly, a side-on attack would yield new target dimensions of 20.5 m (length) x 18.3 m (height). Figures 1 and 2 illustrate this effect.DSTO-IN-0565 Generic sow “Area of influenco— of ABM overSOW == (ie. new target diameter) Figure 1 Mlustration of the area of influence an air-bursting munition would have on a SOW (frontal aspect) illustrating the new representative target dimensions Air bursting munition Area of influence of ABM over SOW (ie. new target dimensions) Figure 2. Illustration of the area of influence an air-bursting nuunition would have on a SOW (ide-on aspect) illustrating the new representative target dimensions ‘This option, however, seems to provide an unrealistic representation as itassumes thatthe ‘timing of the airburst is at its maximum effective radius at the very momentit intercepts, the target. Such precision, despite advances in modern fuzing and detection systems, is highly unlikely.DSTO-TN-0565 Another alternative is to accept that the hit probability calculations would remain similar for ABMsas fornon- bursting varieties because the fragmentation pattern, visualized asan expanding cylinder (or ring if viewed end-on), would still only have a point influence on the target, but having a larger area of influence. Calculations are therefore made relative to the size of the gun’s dispersion. As, for practical purposes, virtually all rounds fall on a given plane within a circular area having a diameter corresponding to +30 (standard deviations) and because an ABM could fall anywhere within the extreme circular boundary of this dispersion, a burst of ABMs could cover a circular area whose diameter measures 60 + 2rasy, where Tan is the effective airburst radius for the ABM in question. ‘The 40 mm PFHE round, for example, would fall within a circular dispersion area with a diameter that is 9 m larger than the normal calculated dispersion of the gun, irrespective of range. 24 Hit Probability vs Kill Probability ‘The estimation of kill probability isa far more complex process than a determination of hit probability, as itis reliant on several additional factors. With hit probability, success is simply measured on the likelihood of scoring a singular hit on the target. A kills entirely scenario dependent and would require detailed knowledge of the position of a given impact on the target together with details of the size, mass and impact velocity of the projectile or fragment striking it as well as an understanding of the vulnerability characteristics of the various elements of the target itself before a determination of likely damage to the target's integrity can be calculated. Given its complexity noattempt will be made to determine kill probability during this assessment. 25 Dealing with maneuvering targets ASOW that manoeuvres at the precise momenta gun has achieved lock and has begun to fire presents additional difficulties. To keep the analysis straightforward two different approaches are used here. Firstly, and in both cases, a dispersion cone must be calculated for each gun having circular distribution with a diameter corresponding to +36 (standard deviations), which for practical purposes represents 97% (virtually 100%) of all rounds fired. In the case ofa gun firing against the front surface of a manoeuvring SOW, the target could be anywhere within a circular area having a radius related to the square of the attacking round’ time-of-flight and the target's acceleration away from the original line of flight, ie. r= 2g? single gun, aimed ata predicted point in space, will only be able to have an influence on the target provided that the target remains somewhere within its dispersion cone. Figure 3 illustrates the point at which a manoeuvring SOW (with 1, 5 and 10 g escape conditions) remains within dispersion cones for a 127 mm weapon firing MP ammunition having standard deviation gun dispersion angles of 05,1 and 1.5 mrad. Ascan be clearly seen a gun having a 1.5 mrad dispersion angle would only be able to engage the front surface of a 300 mm diameter SOW manoeuvring at 1 g at ranges less than 600 m. For the case whereDSTO-TN-0565 the SOW manoeuvres at 5 g the possible engagement range would drop below 100m and even less than this for an SOW manoeuvring at 10 g. As this constitutes virtual point blank range it can be seen that a standard gun firing non-ABM rounds would be ineffective against highly manoeuvrable SOW. If it were possible to provide the gun with a variable and wide reaching dispersion capability so that it could engage a manoeuvring target at any given range, the number of rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability, should the target fall within the centre of, that dispersion, could be determined. This can be considered a shotgun approach. Using this particular method, the hit probability would drop markedly as the targetapproached the outer limits of the dispersion cone, which is the most likely region thata manoeuvring SOW would be located. Conversely, italso follows that the likelihood of a hit in the outer regions of the dispersion cone would also be 50%, so the argument remains valid The other, and possibly more suitable, approach is to consider a case involving a number of guns, each having fixed dispersion limits, and arranged in such a manner soas to have overlapping fields of fire. As each dispersion cone has a base radius of 3a, intersecting the adjacent dispersion cone at a distance of 0.707 x 36 from their centres would result in perfectly square overlaps. For a given range the number of guns required can be determined and the number of rounds that would be required toachieve a 50% hithad the target fallen within the centre of each gun's dispersion cone can thus be calculated. The product would reveal the total number of rounds required. By way of illustration figure 4 shows Gaussian distribution bell curves for sixteen guns, with overlapping fields of fire in a4x4 matrix. Multiplying the number of guns required for a square matrix by 7/4 gives an approximation to the number of guns that would be needed to occupy a circular area (as would be the case during a frontal assault) that would be needed to contain a manoeuvring SOW. The number of guns required for a side-on shot would be quite different, however, as a manoeuvring target would only appear to alter its vertical position when viewed from the gunner’s line-of-sight. This is because any change in sideways motion (i.e. back and forth) cannot be visualised from the gunner's perspective. The number of guns that would be required would have to cover anarea approximately the shape of a vertical column having a length that corresponds to the target’s maximum distance travelled for a given intercept time (ie. the time-of-flight of the attacking shell) and a width equal to a singular gun’s area of influence (ie. its dispersion diameter). Allowing for overlapping fields of fire and the number of rounds required to obtain a 50% hit probability within each gun's area of influence, a calculation of the total number of rounds required to defeat the target at any given range can thus be made. 10[DSTO-TN.0565 12.7 mm MP - Distance target can travel from aimpoint c.f. dispersion cones 50 Eso 7 05 mrad 3 1.0mred £20 15 mrad 5 — 1g escape 1 — 55 escape 8 — 109 escape a g 10 00 a ° 200 400 600 800 Range (m) Figure 3, Representation ofthe positions a manoeworing SOW can have in relation to the dispersion cones of a 12.7 mm gun firing MP ammunition Figure 4. 3D graphical Gaussian representation of gun dispersion at a given plane for a matrix of 4x 4 guns having overlapping fields of fre nDSTO-TN-0565 3. Results 3.1 Non-manoeuvring SOW 3.1.1 Firing non-air bursting ammunition at the front face of the target ‘Table 2 summarises the number of rounds required to achieve a hit probability of 50% on the front face of a300 mm diameter stationary target over various ranges up to 3000 m, for guns with single standard deviation dispersion angles corresponding to 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad. Table 2, ‘Number of rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability on the front face ofa stationary SOW of diameter 300 mm with guns exhibiting odispersion angles of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad at ranges up to 3000 m Range) ‘Number of rounds required for Px ‘o= 0S mad ~__o= 10 mrad 00 i 1 2007 1 3 300. 2 —s (momeee a ar 500. 4 eai6 - 600 6 23 700 3 ~3t B00 ar] 40 900 3 50, 13) 1000 16 ean: 139) 1100 9 73 168 1200) ees 7 200" 1300 26 : 105, arc} ‘140 31 121 2 150 3 139) 312 1600 ‘0 158, 355 3700. 5 178, 401 1800 50 200 450 1900. 56 3 501, 2000 a 27 555 2100, 8 7 612 a ot @ = 73 8 79a a 867. 105; - 938 2700 113) i011 2800 7 1087 2900 130) 1166 3000 139) 148 12DSTO-TN-0565 3.1.2 Firing non-air bursting ammunition at the side of the target Table 3 summarises the number of rounds required to achieve a hit probability of 50% onto the side of a stationary SOW measuring 2500 mm in length x 300 mm in diameter ‘over various ranges up to 3000 m, for guns with single standard deviation dispersion angles corresponding to 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad. Table 3. ‘Number of rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability on the side of a stationary SOW of diameter 300 mm.and length 2500 mm with gunsexhibiting o dispersion angles of 05, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad at ranges up to 3000 m ‘Range (m) ‘Number of rounds required for Py = 05 = 05 mrad = 1.0 mrad S 00 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400, ylylylslels|elolofalojn|a}-{é 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 S1S/BlS1S/A/S/BlS/S/Sle, 13 50, i i] 53 19 BDSTO-TN-0565 3.13. Air bursting ammunition Using the method whereby the size of the target is proportionately increased to reflect the possible interaction area with an ABM ithas been determined thatnomore than one ABM round would be required to achieve a 50% hit probability on the front face of a 300 mm diameter stationary target, for guns with single standard deviation dispersion angles corresponding to 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad, irrespective of the range (up to 3000 m) or calibre of the round. As this is clearly misleading, and highly unrepresentative of reality, this method of calculation will no longer be considered for the assessment of ABM hit probabilities. 3.2 Manoeuvring SOW 3.2.1 Asingle gun firing non-air bursting ammunition at the front face of a manoeuvring target ‘Table 4 summarises the number of rounds required to achieve a hit probability of 50% on. the front face of a manoeuvring 300mm diameter target over a selection of ranges up to 3000 m, for a single gun with variable dispersion capabilities. Table 4 Number of rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability on a manoeuvring SOW of diameter 300 nim fora gun exhibiting variable dispersion angles at ranges up to 3000 m mmowpe | Rangein) | {Snanoeute | Symanocwte | 10, mnoeure 200 1 n 38 500 a 455 1786 1000 733 18051 71995 127 mm MP 1500 8458 209536 837425 2000 53558 1336534 5344323, 2500 238755 5961195 23838393 3000 836016 20914079 83644351 200 1 2 6 500 | 6 312 433 1000 251 6059 24195 20 mm MPLD 1500 3239 80073, 320142 2000 22018 549638 2197389 2500 102983 2569540 10275642 3000 373094 9316164 37263061 uDSTO-TN.0565 200 1 6 2 500 Ww 312 1238 1000 733 18051 71855 20 mm HEIT 1500 10493 260449 1040460 2000 76703 1914677 7655087 2500 377582 9426698 37701973 3000 1423197, 35567428 142266592 200 1 5 16 500 6 m2 433 1000 81 1921 7614 25mm APDS-T 1500 489 11762 46878 2000 1853 45528 182000 2500 5502 136200 544220 3000 13832 343653 1373692 200 1 9 32 500 n 226 898 1000 331 8031 31982 25mm HEIT 1500 3765 92094 371497 2000 24195 602854 2410196 2500 109636 2736580 10945453 3000 390554 9754038 39011248 200 1 5 “4 500 5 101 380 1000 86 2181 8125 35 mm HEL 1500 624 15284 60942 2000 2863, 70876 289086 2500 9964 248048 991932 3000 28879 719321 2875951 200 1 3 9 500 5 81 308 1000 60 1351 5348, 35 mm FAPDS 1500 321 7660 30411 2000 m3 27215 108772 2500 3083 74974 299865 3000 7032 178927 698612 15DSTO-TN.0865 3.2.2 A single gun firing non-air bursting ammunition at the side of the manoeuvring target ‘Table 5 summarises the number of rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability aimed at the side of a manoeuvring SOW measuring 2500 mm in length x 300 mm in diameter over various ranges up to 3000 m, for a gun with variable dispersion angles. Table 5. Number of rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability on a mancencoring SOW of diameter 300 mm and length 2500 mm for a gun exhibiting variable dispersion angles at ranges up to 3000 m No. of ds at | No. ofds.at | No.of rds. at Ammo type | _Range(m) | 1g manocuvre_| 5g manoeuvre | 10g manoeuvre 200 1 1 1 500 1 R 43 1000 70 1703 6792 127 mm MP 1500 1795 44536 179205 2000 20204 511240 2137268 2500 141003 3751003 18655694 3000 716403 22600551 283355317 200 1 1 a 500 4 u 11000 572 2282 20mm MPLD 1500 16996 68125 2000 208448 848199 2500 1556684 6795462 3000 8772884 50673865 200 1 1 500 1 9 30 1000 7 1703 or 20mm HEIT 1500 2226 55387 225146 2000 23941 737039 3142929 2500 223327 6172501 35898039 3000 1226035, a7i7o403 | 19865643264 200 1 1 1 500 1 4 u 1000 9 182 m9 25mm APDS-T 1500 105 2496 9047 2000 700 17173 68749 2500 3242 80348 322870 3000 11736 292585 1182749 16DSTO-TN-0565 200 1 1 500 6 2 1000 2 738 3016 oe 1500 799 19741 79098 2000 9125 208762 932856 2500 64659 1660941 7295651 3000 332686 9232223 54464427 200 1 1 a 500 1 4 10 11000 9 207 767 35mm HEI 11500 134 3243, 12933 2000 11080 26741 1107050 2500 5871 146507 590626 3000 24505, 614931 2517439 200 1 1 1 500 1 3 8 1000 7 128 505 35mm FAPDS 1500 6 1626 e452 2000 421 10264 41055 2500 1788 44200 176974 3000 5966 148660 597093 vDSTO-TIN-0565 18 3.23. Multiple guns engaging the front face of a manoeuvring target with non-air bursting ammunition ‘Table 6 shows the estimated number of guns and rounds required in total to achieve a 50% hit probability (calculated as though the target were to lay within the centre ofeach gun’s area of influence) on the front face of a 300mm diameter target manoeuvring at 1 g over various ranges up to 3000 m, for guns with o dispersion angles of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad. Table 6. [Number of guns and rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability on an SOW of diameter 300 mm manoetoring at gat ranges upto 3000 m ance Net, | totatnoct | N°. ] totatno ot] N&-°F | rotate of Ammorype [Farge] 85> | rs ciete| SEE | rdsincie| PBMEE | rds incl | amy 2 2 T z T 7 sw | 9 oo 4 1 3 roo} 75 | usr | 19 | 160 155 r27mmmp | 1500| 383 | ss | 96 | 13506 | 43 | 13208 zoo | 1366 | ames | on | saat | 152 | gaze soo | 3807 | arom | 97a | arose | 43 | srsaes 3000 | 9486 1318584, 2372 1316212 1054 1315420, 200 fa 7 1 1 7 7 sm] 3 10 1 10 1 10 1wo| 25 | a | 6 9396 3 265 zommMrtp| 150] 147 | sae | a7 | sim | 16 | 5090 2000 | see | siss0 | im | sero | 62 | ators 200 | 1681 | 16300 | 220 | asi | ier | r61920 000 | 3220 | serroo | tos7 | seorsi_| 470 | sssass 20 | 2 2 1 2 1 1 so | 6 2B 1 3B 1 2 100] 75 | 1 | w | no | 8 | 15 2ommurt | 1500} 476 | 16650 | m9 | asm | 53 | 16802 ao0o | 1936 | 21278 | a9 | ra0re0 | 217 | 120805 soo} 616s | 59770 | isn | sise | oes | sea6r sooo | r6isi_| 22am | sors | zai | v7 | zassuz0 2m | 7 7 1 7 7 so | 3 10 1 10 1 10 1am | 8 128 2 9 1 1 5mm APDS-T] 1500 2 | 76 | 6 mm | 2 768 ao | a7 | 29 | i | amr | 5 | 205 zo] so | am | 2 | eo | 10 | 651 3000 | 157 | zie | 30 | ae | v7 | amoDSTO-TIN-0565 200, 2 2 1 2 1 1 500 | 4 v 1 v7 1 7 1000 | 34 540 8 52 4 521 25mm HEIT | 1500 | 171 5974 43 5931 19 5917 2000 | 617 3e2s6 | 154 | ae102 0 38051 2500 | veo | a7as7a | 447 | a7za32 | 199 | 172381 3000 | 4427 _| 615306 _| sor _| e1a199_| 492 | 61380 200 [1 z 1 1 1 1 500 | 2 8 1 8 1 8 1000 | 9 aa 2 136 1 136 35mm HEI | 1500 | 28 991 7 984 3 981 2000 | 73 4527 8 4508 8 4502 2500 | 163 1974 a1 15652 18 1566 3000 | _327_| 45409 2 45417 36 45300 200 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 500 | 2 8 1 8 1 8 1000 | 6 97 2 on 1 94 35mm FAPDS| 1500 | 15 510 4 506 2 505 2000 | 28 1760 7 1753 3 1750 2500] 50 4802 2 4765 6 4769 3000 | _ 80 1079 20 11059 9 11052 19DSTO-TN.0565 ‘Table 7 shows the estimated number of guns and rounds required in total to achieve a 50% hit probability (calculated as though the target were to lay within the centre of each gun's area of influence) on the front face of a 300 mm diameter target manoeuvring at5 g over various ranges up to 3000 m, for guns with o dispersion angles of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad. Table 7. ‘Number of guns and rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability on an SOW of diameter 300mm manceering at 5 gat ranges upto 300m. angel euce in [Totan0of| NO-CE [rota no of| NESE | Total no of Ammo type ri Irds in circle 5%! Irds in circle! irds in circ] (m) | circle 05/5 circle 1.0/5 circle 13/5 05/5. 8 | 10/5, 0/98 | 15/5, 8 ml az | 27 | 7 | | 3 | 500 | 186 742 46 742 21 722 1000 | 1841 29462 460 28542 205 28439 127mmMP | 1500 9500 | 332493 | 2375 | szori7 | 1056 | 32995 000 | saoes | 2113245 | 521 | 2101723 | s7e7 | 2101881 2500 | 97295 | 9437633 | 24324 | 9364657 | 10811 | 9372757 3000 | 237047 | 32949518 | 59262 | 32890240 | 26339 | 32870459 -—.——rti‘“—O™—s—OSOCrsssr so | a | is | m | ws | 5 | 178 1000} 618 9889 155 9580 69 9546 20mm MPLD| 1300 | 3630 | 127059 | 908 | 126152 | 403 | 125889 2000 | 14017 | 60st | 3508 | 865519 | 1557 | 861380 2500 | 41939 | ao6sa39 | 10185 | 4036583 | 660 | soso07s 3000 | 105562 | ra6773ia | 25308 | 14650038 | 11732 | s46s127 mii | % | « | 2 | 2) 0 500 | 12 | soo | a | so | um | 455 1000 | 18m | 2o462 | 460 | 28512 | 205 | 22139 2omm HIT | 1500 | 11808 | a1s2e1 | 2952 | 410329 | 1312 | aosaas 2000 | 48829 | 3027368 | 12207 | soisise | 5125 | sortase 2500 | 153857 | ravz4n42 | se4on | 14808741 | 17095 | 14821550 3000 | 405133 | 56035840 | 100785 | ssesi620 | 44792 | ss900088 m> op | eo fs | 9 | t 8 so] 4 ) ws | nm | a | 5 | a7 1000 | 196 3135 49 3037 2 3026 [25mm APDS-T] 1500 | 533 18664 133 18531 59 18486 oon | i161 | 71986 | 20 | 7166 | 129 | 71599 2500 2203 | 215629 | 556 | zia61 | 2a7 | 216 3000 | 3895 541415 74 540441, 433 540116[DSTO-TN-0565 200 | 23 2B 6 7 3 6 500 | 92 369 23. 369 10 359 1000} 819 | 13107 | 205 | 12698 | 91 12652 25mmHEIT | 1500] 4216 | 147563 | 1054 | 146509 | 468 | 146158 2000 | 15374 | 953195 | 3844 | 949351 | 1708 | 948069 2500 | 44665 | 4332493 | 11166 | 4298992 | 4963 | 4302711 3000 | 110555 | 15367201 | 27639 | 15339554 | 12084 | 15380328 200 | 13 13 3 9 a 8 500} 41 166 10 166 5 161 1000} 223 | 3560 56 3449 25 3437 35mm HEI | 1500] 693 | 24253 | 173 | 24079 | 77 | 24022 2000) 1807 | 112065 | 452 | 111613 | 201 | 111462 2500| 4049 | 392705 | 1012 | 389668 | 450 | 390005 3000 | 8153_| 1133268 | 2038 | 1131230 | 906 | 1130549 200 | 7 7 2 6 1 5 500 | 33 133 8 133 4 129 1000] 138 | 2206 a4 2137 15 2129 35mm FAPDS} 1500| 347 | 12155 | 87 | 12068 | 39 12039 2000] 694 | 43030 | 174 | 42856 | 77 | 42799 2500 | 1224 | 118697 | 306 | 117779 | 136 | 117881 3000 | 1983 | 275592 | 496 | 275096 | 200 | 278030 21DSTO-IN.0565 Table 8 show's the estimated number of guns and rounds required in total to achieve a 50% hit probability (calculated as though the target were to lay within the centre of each gun’s area of influence) on the front face of a 300 mm diameter target manoeuvring at 10g over various ranges up to 3000 m, for guns with « dispersion angles of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad. Table 8. Number of guns and rounds required to ackicve a 50% hit probability on an SOW of diameter 300 mm manoeuvring at 10 g at ranges up to 3000 m Irange| guns in | Toth n0 of RG | Total no of] O-S) | Total no of Ammotype [Ge Site |edsin circle) Be" rds in circle] A." fis in circle 05/10g| 95/28 hr o/10g| 19/78 [15/104] *5/28 200 | 96 96 24 72 cy a 500 | 729 | 24 | 182 | 204 | 81 2833 1000 | 7344 | 117506 | 1836 | 113834 | s16 | 113426 127mm MP | 1500 | 37967 | 1328830 | 9492 | 1319398 | 4219 | 1316173 2000 | 136292 | 8450111 | 34073 | s4i6034 | 15144 | 8404669 2500 | 389076 | 37740420 | 97269 | 37448594 | 43231 | 37480986 3000 | 948052 | 131779223 | 237013 | 131542144 | 105339 | 191463080 200 | 16 16 4 12 2 1 500 | 177 706 44 706 20 687 1000) 2468 | 30490 | 617 | 38256 | 274 | 38119 | 20mm MPLD| 1500] 14514 | 508003 | 3629 | so4374 | 1613 | 503164 2000) 5603s | 3474375 | 14010 | 3460363 | 6226 | 3455601 2500 | 167713 | 16268170 | 41928 | 16142377 | 18635 | 16156340 3000 | 422352 | 58706859 | 105588 | 58601242 | 46928 | 58565997 200 | 53 53 1B 40 6 36 500 | 505 | 2021 | 12% | 202 | 56 1965 1000 | 7330 | 117277 | 1832 | 113612 | 14 | 113205 20mm HEIT | 1500 | 47172 | 1651008 | 11793 | 1630214 | 5241 | 1635282 2000 | 195222 | 12103747 | 4880s | 12054936 | 21691 | 12038657 2500 | 615350 | 59688935 | 153837 | 59227393 | 68372 | 59278623, 3000 | 1612495 | 224136844 | 403124 | 223733609 | 179166 | 223599048 200 | 42 42 10 31 5 2B 500 | 177 706 44 706 20 687 1000! 777 | 12427 | 194 | 12039 | 86 | 11996 5 mm APDS-T| 1500| 2125 | 74386 | sa1 | 73854 | 236 | 73677 2000 | 4641 | 287768 | 1160 | 286607 | 516 | 286220 2500| 8882 | 861597 | 20 | ss4o35 | 987 | 855675 3000 | 15570 | 2164212 | 3892 | 2160319 | 1730 | 2159019DSTO-TN-0565 200] 81 81 20 61 ° Ey 500 | 366 1465 92 1465 41 1424 25 mmHerr | 1000 3262 | 52199 | s16 | 50568 | 362 | 50387 1500 | 16843 | ssoso4 | 4211 | 585283 | 1871 | 583879 2000 | 61465 | 3810852 | 15366 | 3795484 | 6829 | 3790358 2500 | 178645 | 17328601 | 44661 | 17194608 | 19849 | 17209481 3000 | 442166 | 61461078 | 110541 | 61350506 | 49129 | 61313608 200 | 37 37 9 28 4 24 500 | 155 620 39 620 7 608 1000} 829 | 13261 | 207 | 12846 | 92 | 12800 35mm HET | 1500| 2763 | 96703 | 691 | 96012 | 307 | 95781 2000] 7219 | 447598 | 1805 | 445793 | soz | sa5t97 2500 | 16190 | 1570106 | 4047 | 1558263 | 1799 | 1559610 3000 | 32597 | 4530976 | s149 | 4522825 | 3622 | 4520105 200 | 23 2B 6 7 3 15 500 | 128 494 31 494 1“ 480 1000 | 546 729 | 136 | 8456 61 8426 {35mm FAPDS| 1500| 1379 | 48256 | 345 | a7ai2 | 153 | 47797 2000] 2774 | 171983 | 693 | 171290 | 308 | 171058 2500| 4888 | 474107 | 1222 | 470441 | 543 | 470847 3000 | 7918 | 1100643 | 1980 | 1098663 | ss0_| 1098002 2DSTO-TN-0565 24 3.24 Multiple guns engaging the side of a manoeuvring target with non-air bursting ammunition Table 9 shows the estimated number of guns and rounds required in total to achieve a 50% hit probability (calculated as though the target were to lay within the centre of each gun's area of influence) onto the side of a SOW, measuring 2500 mm in length x 300 mm in diameter, manoeuvring at1 g over various ranges up to3000 m, for guns with ¢ dispersion angles of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad Table 9. ‘Number of guns and rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability on the side ofa SOW of diameter 300 mntand length 2500 mm manoeworing at 1 gat ranges sup to 3000 mt No of ffotalnoof! No. of [fotalno off No. of [Total no o! ‘Ammo type |Fange] gunsin | rdsin | gunsin | rdsin | gun in | rdsin (m) | column | column | column | column | column | column o5/1g | 05/1g | 10/1¢ | 10/1¢ | 15/1g | 15/1 20) 2 2 1 1 T T soo | 3 3 2 5 1 4 1000| 10 2» 5 34 3 46 127mm MP | 1500| 22 88 u 155 7 28 2000] 42 | 22 | 2 500 u 737 2500} 70 | 704 35 | 103 | 23 | 199 3000| io | 1539 | 55 | 202 | a7 | 4359 200 [1 1 1 1 1 1 500} 2 2 1 3 1 2 1000} 6 7 3 » 2 z 20mm MPLD | 1500 | 14 55 7 96 5 at 2000] 27 | 187 3 | 3a 9 473 2500} 46 | 463 2B | 86 | 15 | 1280 sooo| 73 | 107 | 37 | roa | 24 | 201 200 | 2 2 1 1 1 1 500 | 3 3 1 4 1 4 1000} 10 2» 5 34 3 46 20mmHEIT | 1500} 25 98 wm | iw 8 254 2000} 50 | a | 25 | 590 v7 882 2500; 89 | 8% | 44 | 19 | 30 | 2451 g000| 143 | 2006 | 72 | 378 | 48 | 5685 200 [1 1 1 1 1 1 500 | 2 2 1 3 1 2 i000} 3 10 2 n 1 5 5mm APDS-T| 1500] 5 2 3 37 2 55 2000] 8 54 4 3 3 137 2500} 11 107 5 198 4 296 Ll 3o00| 14 198 7 374 5__| 560DSTO-TN-0565 0 | 2 2 7 1 7 7 500 | 2 2 1 4 1 3 wo] 7 | 2 | 3 | a | 2 | a oo | o 59 7 108, 5 152 mo] 2 | 16 | wm | a | 9 | a5 200| 48 | a7 | 2 | oa | 6 | t32 so00|_75 | 105 | 33 | 1989 | 25 | 2078 m0 [4 7 1 1 7 7 soo | 2 2 1 2 1 2 100] 3 wo | 2 | 2 | a 16 ssmmuet |i} 6 | 2 | 3 | a2 | 2 | 2 moi |e | 5 | ce | 3 | i a0] 1 | wm | 7 | 26 | 5 | 388 goo | 20 | 26 | w | sa | 7 | a0 200 [1 1 7 1 7 1 500 | 2 2 1 2 1 2 100] 3 8 1 | i B asmmrarps| 150} 4 | a7 | 2 | 30 | 1 4 mole |e | | | 2 |, ie 200 8 | 7 | 4 | wr | 3 | 20 soo | 10 | am | 5 | 27 | 3 | 40DSTO-TN.0565 26 ‘Table 10 shows the estimated number of guns and rounds required in total to achieve a 50% hit probability (calculated as though the target were to lay within the centre of each gun’s area of influence) onto the side of a SOW, measuring 2500 mm in length x 300mm in diameter, manoeuvring at 5 g over various ranges up to 3000 m, for guns with 6 dispersion angles of 05, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad. Table 10. Number of guns and rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability on the side ofa SOW of diameter 300 mm and length 2500 mm manoeuvring at 5 g at ranges up to 3000 m No of [fotalnooff No.of ffotalnoof No.of [Total no of ‘Ammo type |fange] sunsin | rdsin | gunsin | rdsin | gunsin | rds in (=) | column | column | column | column | column | column 05/5g | 05/5¢ | 10/5g | 1.0/5g | 1.5/5g | 15/5, 200 | 6 6 3 3 2 2 500 | 15 15 8 B 5 20 1000 | 48 45 4 169 16 26 127mmMP | 1500! 110 | 440 55 770 a7 1136 2000] 208 | 158 | 108 | 2500 9 3680 2500| 352 | 3520 | 17% | on | 17 | 9738 3000 | sao | zoo | 275 | 14559 | 183 | 21702 200 | 3 3 1 1 1 1 500 | 8 8 4 n 3 10 1000] 28 on “ 98 9 131 20mm MPLD| 1500 | 68 22 34 476 2B 703 2000) 134 935 o7 1603 45 2360 2500; 20 | 2 | 16 | 4275 7 6393, 3000 | _367_| 5133 | 183 | o717_| 122 | 14588 200 | 4 4 2 2 a Z 500 | 13, 2B 6 19 4 7 1000} 48 45 24 169 16 226 20mmHEIT | 1500] 123 | 490 61 858 41 1267 2000 249 | 1785 | 125 | 2902 83 | 4405 2500| 443 | 4426 | 221 | sss | 148 | 12245 3000| 716 | 10030 | 358 | 18986 _| 239 | 28419 200 [4 4 2 2 1 a] 500 | 8 8 4 n 3 10 1000] 16 7 8 55 5 74 [25 mm APDS-T) 1500 108 B 182 9 269 2000] 38 269 19 461 B 679 2500} 5 532 7 984 18 472 3000 | 70 986 35 1866 2B 2793DSTO-TN-0565 200 | 5 3 3 3 2 2 500 | 11 u 5 16 4 u 1000| 32 97 16 13 n | wt 2BmmHEIT | 1500! 73 | 23 | 37 | 513 ma | 757 2000} 140 | 979 | 70 | 1679 | 47 | 2472 2500; 238 | 2385 | 119 | am2 | 79 | 6598 3000 | 375_| 5253 | 18s | oomz | 125 | 14882 200 | 4 4 2 2 1 1 500 | 7 7 4 u 2 10 1000} 17 50 8 39 6 7 a5mmHEI | 1500] 30 | 19 | 15 28 | 10 | 307 2000} 48 | 336 | 24 5% | 16 | 88 2500] 72 | 718 | 36 | 1328 | 24 | 1986 go00| 102 | 1426 | s1_| 270 | 34 | 40m 200 | 3 3 2 2 1 1 500 | 7 7 3 10 2 9 1000} 13 40 7 46 4 62 {35mm FAPDS| 1500 | 21 at n uy 7 217 2000] 30 | 28 ) 15 | 357 10 | 525 2500; 39 | 39 | 2 | 730 13 | 1092 3000 | 50 m3_| 25 | 131 | 17 | 1993DSTO-TN-0565 28 ‘Table 11 shows the estimated number of guns and rounds required in total to achieve a 50% hit probability (calculated as though the target were to lay within the centre of each gun’s area of influence) onto the side ofa SOW, measuring 2500 mm in length x 300 mm in diameter, manoeuvring at 10 g over various ranges up to 3000 m, for guns with & dispersion angles of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 mrad, Table 11. Number of gunsand rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability onthe side of a SOW of diameter 300 min: and length 2500 nim manoeworing at 10 g at ranges up to 3000 m Noof ffotalno of No.of [fotalno of No. of ffotalno ol IRange| guns in | rdsin | gunsin | rdsin | gunsin | rdsin Ammo type oo Smeal Sean | cee || en | oe | oe 05/103 | 05/10g | 10/108 | 10/10 | 15/10¢ | 15/10 mw] ou | im é 6 a a 500 | 30 | 30 15 ss | 1 | a roo! 97 | 20 | 48 | 338 | 32 | 451 127mmMP | 1500| 220 | 879 | m0 | 1539 | 73 | 2272 2000 417 | 2016 | 208 | 4999 | 139 | 7359 2500| 704 | 70s | 352 | 13021 | 235 | 19473 3000 | 1099 | 15382 | sap _| 20115 | 366 | 43581 200 | 4 4 2 2 1 1 so] 15 | 15 7 2 5 20 100] 56 | 16 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 262 20mmMPLD| 1500} 136 | sas | 68 | 952 | 45 | 1405 2000| 267 | 1870 | 134 | 3205 | 89 | 4719 2500| 462 | aor | 231 | 8519 | 154 | 12785 3000 | 733__| 10266 | 367_| 19433 | 244 | 29088 200 | 8 8 4 4 3 3 500 | 25 25 3 | 38 8 3t 100} 97 | 20 | 4 | a8 | a2 | a5 20mmuHEIT | 1500} 245 | 980 | 123 | 176 | s2 | 2532 2000| 499 | 3490 | 249 | 5983 | 166 | 8808 2500} 98s | ass | 493 | 16375 | 295 | 2usa9 3000 | 1433 | 20060 | 716 | a7e71_|_47a_| 56807 200 | 7 7 4 4 2 2 so | 15 | 15 7 2 5 2» roo} 31 | oF as | no | 10 | wz 25mm APDS-T) 1500] 52 | 208 | 2 | 34 | 17 | sxe 200] 77 | 538 | 38 | 922 | 2 | 1358 2500| 106 | 1063 | 53 | 1967 | 35 | 2012 3000] 141 | 197 | 70 | s7_| 47 | 55xDSTO-IN.0565 200 | 10 10 3 3 3 3 500 | 22 2 u 2 7 2 tooo} o | 193 | 32 | 26 | a | an PommHEIT | 1500| 146 | 586 | 73 | 1025 | 49 | 1513 2000} 280 | 1958 ] 140 | 3357 | 93 | 4942 2500| 477 | 4769 | 238 | 8023 | 159 | 13195 3000 | 750 | 10505 | 375 | 19st | 250 | 20763 200 [7 7 3 3 2 2 500 | 14 u 7 2 5 19 1000 | 32 7 16 | m | nu | 12 asmmuHet | 1500] 59 | 237 | 30 | 415 | 20 | 613 2000} 9% | 67 48 | 10 | 32 | 1694 2500} us | 136 | 72 | 2656 | 48 | 3972 3000 | 201 | 2as2_| 102 | 5309 | 68 | s081 200 [5 5 3 3 2 2 500 | 13 B 6 1” 4 v7 1000 | 26 79 2B 92 9 123 asmmFArps| 1500} 42 | 18 | 2 | 23 | um | 433 2000} 59 | 416 | 30 | 713 | 20 | 1050 2500; 79 | 79 | 39 | 159 | 26 | 2183 3000 | 100 | 1406 | so | 2661 | 33 | 3083 29DSTO-TN.0565 3.2.5 Multiple guns engaging the front face of a manoeuvring target with air bursting ammunition Table 12 shows the estimated number of guns and ABM rounds required in total to achieve a 50% hit probability (calculated as though the target were to lay within the centre ofeach gun’s area of influence) on the front face of a 300mm diameter target manoeuvring at 1 g over various ranges up to 3000 m, for guns with o dispersion angles of 0.5, 1.0 and. 15 mrad. Table 12. Number ofguns and ABM rounds required t achieve a 50% hit probability onan SOW of diameter 300 mm manoeuvring at Iga ranges up 1 3000 m Noof |Totalno] No.of [Totalno] No.of | Total no Range| guns in| of rds in| guns in| of rds in| guns in| of rds in Cok Led (a) |"cirte | clecie | circle | circle | civle | circle 05/1| 05/1 |10/1g| 1.0/1g |15/1g) 15/1 20s ee [nee ee ela 1 so} 1 | 4 7 a 3 roo} 3 | #6 | 2 | 9 | a | me 30mm ABM+3m | 150] 17 | on | 8 | 169 | 5 | 1552 2000] 65 | 4022 | 29 | 71 | 16 | 9000 2500 | 188 | reis | 78 | 20614 | 42 | sesso 3000 | as_| os169 | 17e_| ses2a | 94 | ti7181 m)1]2],2i)31i)2 1 so} 1 | 2 1 2 | 1 3 woo! 2 | » J 1 ja] 1} a ieee (| @ | el | bot | 2000 | 21 | 1323 | 10 | 2867 | 6 | 200 2500| 50 | ae | 22 | axis | 12 | 10u9 3000 | 100 | 1393 | 41_| 22753 | 22 | 27662 m{1]2{21]1)4 1 50} 1 | 1 a fafa 2 roo] 1 | 1 | 1 | a | a | mm 4ommt7o+45m | 1500] 7 | 232 | a | siz | 2 | 73 2000] 23 | 14s | 12 | 29390 | 7 | 3983 2500] 64 | e184 | 30 | 11601 | 17 | 15165 3000 | 148 | 20601 | 66 | 36593 | 37 | 46285 20} 1 | 1 | 1 ae 1 so} 1 | 1 | 4 1 | 4 1 wo} 1 | 5 | 1 | so | a | 26 rommuasrrres |) 3 | of i jan fa | a 200] 4 | 275 | 3 | 7a | 2 | 1153 2500] 1 | 1059 | 7 | 2596 | 5 | 3964 [3000 | 23 | sis2 | 13 | aor | 9 | 20878DSTO-TN-0565 Table 13 shows the estimated number of guns and ABM rounds required in total to achieve a 50% hit probability (calculated as though the target were to lay within the centre ofeach gun's area of influence) on the front face of a 300 mm diameter target manoeuvring at5 g over various ranges up to 3000 m, for guns with c dispersion angles of 0.5, 1.0 and 15 mrad. Table 13. Numtber of uns and ABM rounds required to achieve a 50% hit probability on an SOW of diameter 300 mm: manoeworing at 5 g at ranges tp to 3000 m No of | Total no [No. of] Total no | No. of | Total no [Range|guns in| of rds in |guns in| of rds in |guns in| of rds in (m) | circle | circle circle | circle | circle | circle 05/5 ¢| 05/5 |1.0/5g| 1.0/5 |15/5g| 15/5, Ammo type 200} 1 1 1 1 1 1 500} 4 u 2 40 2 64 1000] 69 | 1099 | 39 | 2395 | 25 | 3437 30mm ABM+3m | 1500] 424 | 14843 | 208 | 28884 | 123 | 38363 2000 | 1613 | 100017 | 717 | 177001 | 403 | 223828 2500 | 4672 | 453136 | 1931 | 743270 | 1048 | 908769 3000 | 11347 | 1577245 | 4432 | 2460012 | 2344 | 2025858 200 [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 500 | 3 2 2 34 2 7 1000] 39 | 626 | 23 | 135 ) 15 | 2128 1500 | 179 | 6261 | 92 | 12844 | 56 | 17563 2000} 530 | 32844 | 248 | 61256 | 143 | 79500 2500 | 1237 | 120022 | 538 | 206939 | 299 | 259180 3000 | 2493 | 346508 | 1021 | 566698 | 552 | 688962 200 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 500 | 2 7 1 2 1 37 1000] 29 | 459 | 18 | 1139 | 13 | 1774 40mmL70+45m | 1500] 162 | 5672 | 91 | 12671 | 58 | 18202 2000) 577 | 35788 | 295 | 72742 | 178 | 98876 2500 | 1588 | 154009 | 750 | 288022 | 436 | 377608 3000 | 3699 | 514100 | 1644 | 912312 | 925_| 1153950 35mm AHEAD + 35m wo] > | mm |e | as | a | on remmuasosrs |r| a5 | ame | 2 | suet | ae | ser 2000 | 110 | 6830 | 73 | 17962 | 52 | 28622 2500| 271 | 26279 | 167 | 64392 | 113 | 98344 3000 | 570 | 79217 | 332 | r8s216 | 217 | 270782 31