What’s New in SAP Integrated Business Planning

2302 (Planned)
SAP IBP Product Management, SAP
January, 2023
PUBLIC
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Agenda (all times CET)

01
Tuesday: 13:00-14:00 05
Session 1 – Intro, Best Practices and Thursday: 13:00-13:45
Configuration Session 5 – Synchronized Planning,
Inventory, Order Based Integration

02
Tuesday: 14:00-14:45 06
Session 2 – Response & Supply Thursday: 14:00-14:30
Session 6 – Demand Topics

03
Wednesday: 13:00-14:15
Session 3 – Planning UIs

04
Wednesday: 14:30-15:00
Session 4 – Integration Topics and
Extensions
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What’s New 2302 – Demand, Demand Sensing
Laura Tozzo

Public
Agenda

Ÿ New error measure: SPEC

Demand Ÿ Variable Impact Analysis for (S)ARIMAX
Ÿ Outlier markers

Ÿ UI changes
Ÿ Enhanced logs
Demand sensing Ÿ
Ÿ
Lag based snapshots key figures in Where Used
Normalization of daily disaggregation profile override
Ÿ Enhanced Rounding logic

Product Lifecycle Ÿ Enhancements in Product Detail Screen

Ÿ Product Value Help with attributes defined in Settings App
Management generally available

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Demand
New error measure: SPEC
New error measure: SPEC

When When
What is should should
SPEC? you use you avoid
When either the
SPEC stands for SPEC? When you want to do a SPEC? forecast or the sales
“Stock-keeping oriented Best-fit forecasting for
history has negative
Prediction Error Costs” sporadic time series
values

When demand
SPEC considers both placement errors are
the duration and the important, not only
amount of the errors deviations in the
demand value

When avoiding under-

SPEC can distinguish
stocking has different
over-forecasting errors
importance than
from under-forecasting
avoiding excess stock

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SPEC use cases: best-fit forecasting

No matter which slider you set, the other one will adjust to total 100.

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SPEC use cases: postprocessing
Different settings are allowed for SPEC in best-fit error calculation and for postprocessing.

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SPEC vs RMSE - intermittent case
Comparing two intermittent forecasts SPEC 50 – 50 SPEC 30 – 70 SPEC 70-30
with the actuals RMSE Avoid Avoid Avoid
Understocking Understocking Understocking
Ÿ Blue line is the actuals = Avoid < Avoid > Avoid
Ÿ Green and yellow lines are different forecasts Overstocking Overstocking Overstocking
with identical demand spacing and demand
size Cannot
The duration
Ÿ Green forecast is a bit late, leading to shortage make a Under-
of the error is Overstocking
difference, stocking
Ÿ Yellow forecast is a bit early, leading to excess green and
less in case penalized,
penalized,
stock of the yellow green
yellow were yellow
forecast, forecast wins
both wrong 3 forecast wins
yellow wins
times

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SPEC vs RMSE - continuous case

Comparing two continuous forecasts SPEC 50 – 50 SPEC 30 – 70 SPEC 70-30

RMSE Avoid Avoid Avoid
with the actuals
Understocking Understocking Understocking
Ÿ Blue line is the actuals = Avoid < Avoid > Avoid
Ÿ Green and yellow lines are different forecasts Overstocking Overstocking Overstocking
with similar absolute error
Ÿ Green forecast results shortage Cannot
make a The duration Under-
Ÿ Yellow forecast results excess stock difference, of the error is
Overstocking
stocking
penalized,
because the also penalized,
green
sign of the considered, yellow
forecast wins
error is not yellow wins. forecast wins
considered

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Demand
Variable Impact Analysis for (S)ARIMAX
Variable Impact Analysis

Through Variable Impact Analysis, you can see the impact of your independent variables on your
forecast.

Forecast
Quantity

Time

Baseline Forecast Impact of Marketing Budget Impact of Calendar Events Impact of Product Price
(including trend Total Forecast
Independent Variable 1 Independent Variable 2 Independent Variable 3
and seasonality)

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Variable impact analysis for (S)ARIMAX

Before Now
Variable impact analysis was only available Variable impact analysis also available for
for Multiple Linear Regression and Gradient (S)ARIMAX
Boosting

Each forecasting algorithm considers independent variables in a different way

Impact analysis is specific to the forecasting algorithm

While the user interface is identical in Gradient Boosting, Multiple Linear Regression and
(S)ARIMAX, calculated impacts can be different

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Variable impact analysis for (S)ARIMAX

If any of the p,q,d or P,Q,D parameter values determined by AutoARIMA is larger than zero, the impacts
calculated for preceding periods may cause the algorithm to contribute some impact to a variable even in
periods when the values correspond with the zero-impact setting.
The impact calculated this way is usually larger for categorical variables than for non-categorical ones

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July

Sales forecast 1118 1089 1131 1155 1145 1069 1057
Baseline forecast 1118 1089 1131 1034 1133 1069 1057
Calendar events 1000
Event impact 121 12

Event "1000" in April contributed a

little impact to May

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Demand
Outlier Markers
Outlier markers
Using markers, users can override outlier detection and correction

Marker Meaning Effect

NULL Unknown Detect and correct following automatic
outlier detection (current behavior)
1 Outlier Correct independently of whether the
algorithm recognized it as outlier or not
2 Not Outlier Do not correct even if the algorithm
recognized it as outlier
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 Outlier markers - example
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
History 102 117 500 104 118 104 23 118 433 117 100 111
Tolerance high 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Tolerance low 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Markers 1 2 2
Outlier Not Not
Outlier Outlier
Corrected 102 117 110.1111 104 110.1111 104 110.1111 118 433 117 100 111

Calculate Detect outliers Add periods Remove periods Correct outliers

tolerance range based on marked as outlier marked as no (as before)
(as before) tolerance range (new) outlier (new)
(as before)

Boundaries: Outliers detected: Outliers detected: Outliers detected: Outliers corrected:

Ÿ Low boundary: 50 Ÿ March (too high) Ÿ March Ÿ March Ÿ March
Ÿ High boundary: Ÿ July (too low) Ÿ May Ÿ May Ÿ May
200 Ÿ September (too Ÿ July Ÿ July Ÿ July
high) Ÿ September
The November marker
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has no effect.
Demand Sensing
UI changes
UI changes
Before Now
Run Time Series Analysis Constrain Demand Based
for Demand Sensing on Time Series Properties
Default: unchecked Default: checked

When this option is activated, sales history is statistically analyzed to

identify characteristics and trends. Then the weekly sensed demand is
capped if it is too high or too low compared to sales historical sales. It also
identifies and handles trending demand.
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Demand Sensing
Enhanced Logs
Enhanced Logs
Business user logs for each step in demand sensing for each package

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Demand Sensing
Lag based snapshots key figures in
Where Used
Lag based snapshots key figures in Where Used

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Demand Sensing
Normalization of daily disaggregation
profile override
Normalization of daily disaggregation profile override
Users can override daily disaggregation profiles used
during the disaggregation optimization by using the
daily disaggregation profile override key figure.

Before Now
The user-defined daily disaggregation profile The user-defined daily disaggregation profile
override was consider as-is by the algorithm. override is normalized.
The sum of daily sensed demand could differ from The sum of daily sensed demand is always equal
the weekly demand. to the weekly demand.

Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09

Daily 16% 24% 4% 27% 5% 0% 0% 76%
Disaggregation
Profile
Normalized 21% 32% 5% 36% 7% 0% 0% 100%
Daily
Disaggregation
Profile
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Demand Sensing
Enhanced Rounding logic
Enhanced Rounding logic
The Demand Sensing algorithm now reads the Number of Decimals for the Target Key Figure for
Forecast input in the Forecast Model. The same number of decimals will be used for each planning
combination.

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Enhanced Rounding logic - Before

Daily Disaggregated Forecast in the backend

Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Weekly

Optimized
Demand
0.522214 0.522214 0.522214 0.522214 0.522214 0.522214 0.522214 3.655500

Daily Disaggregated Forecast with old rounding logic

Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Sensed Weekly

Demand Optimized
Demand
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

In the end the sensed demand does not match the weekly optimized demand

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Enhanced Rounding logic - Now

Daily Disaggregated Forecast in the backend

Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Weekly
Forecast

0.522214 0.522214 0.522214 0.522214 0.522214 0.522214 0.522214 3.655500

Daily Disaggregated Forecast with enhanced rounding logic

Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Total Decimals

1 1 0 1 0 1 0 4 0
0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.7 1
0.53 0.52 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 3.66 2
0.523 0.522 0.523 0.522 0.522 0.522 0.522 3.656 3

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Enhanced Rounding logic – with Calendars Non working day

Daily Disaggregated Forecast in the backend

Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Weekly

Forecast

0 125.25 125.25 125.25 125.25 0 0 500.5

Daily Disaggregated Forecast with 0 decimals

Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Total

1 125 125 125 125 0 0 501

The first day of the week will receive the residual quantity. This is because the rounding is done after the
calendaring process.

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Product Lifecycle Management
Enhancements in Product Detail Screen
Enhancements in Product Detail Screen - New Edit Option

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Enhancements in Product Detail Screen – Status Field

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Enhancements in Product Detail Screen – Grouping Option

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Enhancements in Product Detail Screen – Grouping Option

Before
Grouping

After
Grouping

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Product Lifecycle Management
Product Value Help with attributes
defined in Settings App generally
available
Attributes defined in Settings App

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Product Value Help with attributes defined in Settings App generally
available

Before Now
The additional The additional
attributes were attributes are
visible in the always visible in
Product Value the Product
Help when Value Help
adding single
product
assignment or
single forecast
date, but not in
case of
multiple
product
assignments or
forecast dates

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Thank you.
Contact information:

ina.glaes@sap.com – Best Practices ferencz.zsolt.sipos@sap.com - Integration r.meyfarth@sap.com - IBP Global Customer

Engagement
zoltan.miklos.biro@sap.com – Configuration spyridon.negas@sap.com – Integration john.lopus@sap.com - IBP Customer Office
gabor.mittweg@sap.com – Configuration b.akin@sap.com – Integration
mohannad.el-jayousi@sap.com – Configuration alexis.lozada@sap.com – Inventory
pramod.mane@sap.com – Time Series Planning laura.tozzo@sap.com – Demand
thomas.fiebig@sap.com – Order Based Planning
thorsten.kulick@sap.com – Order Based Planning
claus.bosch@sap.com – Order Based Planning
patrick.weber01@sap.com – Planning UIs
parveen.kumar01@sap.com – WebRFC Migration
rainer.moritz@sap.com – Configuration, Demand & Demand
Sensing
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