LatamStrat S 2008-07-07
LatamStrat S 2008-07-07
In the first half of the year, Latin America was the best-performing among developed and emerging regions, with an
8.0% return. Commodity prices not only were supportive in the first half of the year, which was our base-case scenario, but
they actually were the main driving force of the market. According to our estimates, commodity stocks increased 20% versus
the 3% decline posted by non-commodity stocks. For the non-commodity stocks, the new risk profile of the region was
validated by a milestone investment-grade rating for Brazil, while Mexico was fairly resilient to the weakness in the U.S.
economy, two issues that, in Latin America, helped offset the weaknesses of global markets.
However, as we enter into the second half of the year, we are adopting a more cautious approach toward investment in
Latam equities in the near term. On one hand, there are increased concerns regarding global growth and inflation, which was
reflected in the significant divestitures from emerging market funds in the month of June. On the other hand, with inflation
becoming a concern across the board in the region, we believe that the Latam markets will take some time to digest the potential
impact on earnings and growth. In any case, the commitment to inflation targeting by most central banks in the region leads us
to see this as cyclical concern.
The main guidelines that we recommend for setting an equity strategy for Latam are the following:
● With respect to our commodity strategy, we believe commodities will continue to be supportive for the Latam investment
case, given that supply constraints likely will keep prices at high levels. However, we also believe that in the second half of
2008, commodity stocks will not provide the differential returns they provided in the first half of the year. In the commodities
universe, we prefer the mining sector. We also like non-Brazilian steel companies. Our favorite stocks among commodities are
Antofagasta and ICH; and
● For our non-commodity strategy, the main change we recommend for the second half is the adoption of some inflation-
protection measures in portfolio construction. Most of the attention so far has been placed on the impact of inflation on the
downside risk in earnings. This is something that our country strategists have incorporated into their domestic portfolios, either
by having exposure to defensive sectors or minimizing exposure to sectors with a high weight of commodities in their cost
structures. In this note, we are highlighting another dimension of the impact of inflation on equities: the relative attractiveness
with respect to fixed income alternatives in each of the markets. Based on a cash earnings yield gap analysis, we found that
Brazil poses a higher risk compared with Mexico or Chile. In terms of stock selection, we reflected our inflation concerns by
including AMX, Cemig, and Endesa among our large-cap Top Picks. Meanwhile, in our strategy for non-commodities, we
continue to favor stocks that should benefit from specific sector/country dynamics. In the case of Brazil, we expect earnings
growth to continue to be supported in the near term by the wave of consolidation and industry penetration that has characterized
the market over the past few years. In this group, we highlight Marfrig and Log-In. In Mexico, we continue to see strong
internal drivers, among which we highlight housing. GEO is our favorite stock in this sector. In Chile, our favorite sector is
utilities, which should benefit from capacity expansion, attractive long-term prices, and improved hydro conditions. Finally, we
recommend some exposure to the domestic economies in Peru and Colombia through Credicorp and Bancolombia.
Top Picks: Among the large caps, our favorite names are AMX, Antofagasta, Cemig, and Endesa. Among the mid- and
small caps, our top picks are Marfrig, Log-In, GEO, Bancolombia, Credicorp, and ICH, as shown in the table on the
following page. The raw material for this core list continues to be the “Bottom-Up Matrix,” which contains the favorite stocks
of our country heads and/or sector heads. Compared with our previous Top Picks list with five names, we are maintaining Log-
in, Bancolombia, and Antofagasta on the list. We are removing Lupatech due to disappointing first-quarter results and removing
Mexichem, after its strong stock performance year to date.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Commodities Relevant to Latam ...............................................................................................3
Non-Commodities......................................................................................................................5
Top Picks Highlights .................................................................................................................7
The Bottom-Up Matrix – Top Picks of Country and Sector Heads...........................................9
Top Picks – Valuation Table as of June 30, 2008 (in U.S. Dollars in Millionsª)
Price Target Upside/ Net Earnings P/E FV/EBITDA Mkt
Company Ticker Rec. 30-Jun Price Down 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Cap
America Movil AMX B 52.75 76.40 45% 5,401 5,458 7,038 20.3 16.9 13.1 10.1 8.1 7.0 92,289
Antofagasta ANTO B 13.11 19.00 45% 1,433 1,673 1,857 9.8 7.7 7.0 5.1 3.7 3.1 12,929
Cemig CIG B 24.55 27.43 12% 1,031 1,031 941 8.7 11.6 12.7 5.9 7.2 7.5 11,943
Endesa EOC B 42.76 54.50 27% 361 723 912 28.4 16.2 12.8 12.8 11.3 9.4 11,690
Marfrig MRFG3 B 12.99 14.50 12% 44 135 244 40.2 19.7 10.9 12.1 8.7 6.6 2,649
ICH* ICHB B 5.58 7.45 34% 164 256 268 11.2 9.5 9.1 4.9 5.9 5.3 2,432
GEO GEOB B 3.35 4.00 19% 148 157 173 10.3 11.4 10.3 6.0 6.1 5.1 1,787
Log-In LOGN3 B 7.51 9.70 29% 19 43 47 37.0 15.9 14.7 21.0 10.1 7.3 689
Price Target Upside/ Net Earnings P/E ROE Mkt
Rec. 30-Jun Price Down 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Cap
Credicorp* BAP B 82.12 105.00 28% 351 515 530 17.4 12.8 12.4 30% 41% 39% 6,570
Bancolombia CIB B 31.39 45.00 43% 504 593 676 11.6 9.9 8.2 25% 23% 24% 5,866
ª Except for per share/per ADR amounts. Note: *YE 2009 target price.
Sources: Bloomberg, Company reports, and Santander estimates.
2
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
COMMODITIES RELEVANT TO LATAM
Commodity prices not only were supportive in the first half of the year, which was our base-case scenario, they actually
were the main driving force of the market. As can be seen in Figure 3, based on the sample of 208 companies that we
have under coverage, commodity stocks rose 20% in the first half of the year, compared with the 3% decline posted by
the non-commodity stocks. Among commodities, the best performing sectors were metals (mainly Brazilian steel) and
oil. The worst-performing sector was pulp & paper.
50 50 50 50
0 0 0 0
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08
-7% -3% 0%
-26% -25%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 YTD -50%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 YTD
Looking at the second half, we believe that while we could see volatility episodes in commodities, a strong price
correction in the key commodities for Latam is unlikely as supply constraints remain. Clearly, the main risk to
this assumption is a stronger-than-expected correction on the demand side that could result from the impact of higher
oil prices and tighter monetary policies on global growth.
3
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
Figure 5. Latam EBITDA Exposure to Commodities Figure 6. Price Expectations for Key Commodities US$
We do not expect that commodity stocks will provide the differential returns that they provided in the first half of the
year, mainly for three reasons: (1) strong price increases like the ones we have seen in the first half are unlikely to be
repeated without causing a severe slowdown in the world economy, which, in turn, would make the price increases
short term in nature; (2) valuation multiples are high compared with their history and non-commodity stocks; and (3) a
convergence of earnings growth.
Figure 7. 12MF FV/EBITDA Latam Comm. vs. Non Comm. Figure 8. Latam EBITDA Growth
In terms of strategy, in the commodities universe, our favorite sector is mining, with an above-consensus outlook
for copper prices. After attending to the World Copper Conference held in April in Santiago, Chile, our mining
team produced a study (“Copper X-Ray: Strong Pricing until 2011,” dated May 2, 2008) analyzing the copper
market and incorporating information on the 134 projects that are expected to come on stream in the 2008-2015
period. Overall, our team concluded that it is likely there will continue be a shortage in copper supply in 2008 and
2009, supporting the current high prices, and that the price should start declining by 2011 because of the projects
currently under development. Our favorite stock for getting exposure to copper is Antofagasta, which is trading at a
2009E FV/EBITDA of 3.1x.
We also highlight our preference for non-Brazilian steel producers versus Brazilian steel producers. In our report
published on May 19, 2008 (“Reduce Exposure in Brazil Steel – Invest in Non-Brazilian Now”), our Metals & Mining
analyst, Victoria Santaella, recommended that after the strong outperformance of Brazilian steel producers versus non-
Brazilian steel producers, investors reposition their emphasis. She argued that many of the drivers that justified the high
valuations of the Brazilian companies are starting to soften, suggesting that we were close to a peak in the market;
however, she believed that the steel companies outside of Brazil are about benefit from an acceleration in growth,
driven mainly by record-high international prices.
4
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
NON-COMMODITIES
In the non-commodities universe, the main issue surrounding the investment scenario in Latam for the second
half is inflation. Inflation has been higher than expected across the board. The positive news is the commitment
shown by most of the central banks to anchor inflation expectations, which reinforces the improved macro management
in the region. The negative is that the impact of inflation – plus the tightening in monetary policy – increases the risk of
GDP and earnings corrections. Also, from an equity perspective, the increases in interest rates could lower the relative
attractiveness of equity versus fixed income. After analyzing the cash earnings-yield gap of Brazil, Mexico, and
Chile, we found that Brazil presents the highest downside after the recent increase in long-term interest rates.
One part of the inflation story’s effect on equity is the impact on earnings and cash flows The key aspects to
monitor on this front are the weight of commodity/energy-related costs in the cost structure and the ability of the
company/industry to pass through the price increase. Inflation fears were incorporated by Marcelo Audi and Gonzalo
Fernandez into their recommended portfolios for Brazil and Mexico in their recent strategy reports. In the case of
Brazil, in the Brazil Strategy report published on June 3, 2008 (“Looking for New Catalysts beyond Investment
Grade”), the Brazil portfolio was shifted from domestic cyclicals to domestic defensive names, increasing the weight of
electric utilities, healthcare, and transportation, and reducing the exposure to industrials, retail, and telecom. In the case
of Mexico, the June 20, 2008, report “Mexico A to Z: a Closer Look at the Impact of Inflation on Costs” concludes that
the sectors most exposed to commodity prices are food (66% of costs), industrials (47%), beverages (37%), and cement
(33%), while telco, media, banking, airports, and housing have the lowest exposure.
The other part of the story is the relative attractiveness of equity versus fixed income. Comparing the cash
earnings yield with the local yields of long-term bonds, we found that while the comparison in Brazil, Mexico, and
Chile have suffered, the comparison in Brazil has suffered more. Also, the relative levels of the yield gaps suggests that
Brazil equity valuations have incorporated a significantly higher earnings growth outlook beyond 2009 compared with
valuations in Mexico or Chile.
Figure 9. Earnings Yield versus Local Rates Figure 10. Price Expectations for Key Commodities US$
8.0% Brazil Chile Mexico 16.0
6.0%
14.0
4.0%
12.0
2.0%
10.0
0.0% 8.0
-2.0% 6.0
-4.0% 4.0
Brazil Chile Mexico
-6.0% 2.0
J-07 M-07 M-07 J-07 J-07 S-07 O-07 D-07 J-08 M-08 A-08 J-08 J-07 M-07 M-07 J-07 J-07 S-07 O-07 D-07 J-08 M-08 A-08 J-08
Sources: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
We continue to like certain specific country/sector dynamics in the region. In the case of Brazil, we expect
earnings growth to continue to be supported in the near term by the wave of consolidation and industry
penetration that characterized the market over the past years, although with tougher access to capital. In
Mexico, we continue to see strong internal drivers, such as housing, infrastructure, and services. Among these, we
highlight the dynamics of the affordable-housing segment. In Chile, our favorite sector is utilities. Our positive view on
the Chilean electricity sector is supported by the roughly 10,000 MW to be added to the two main Chilean electricity
grids over the next six years, almost doubling the current installed capacity in Chile. In addition, the recent rainfall
virtually eliminated the risk of energy rationing near term and should improve earnings visibility for the electric
utilities sector in the second half of the year.
5
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
Finally, for the second half of 2008, we are less concerned about holding stocks with exposure to the U.S. While
in 1H08, we recommended avoiding holding companies with such exposure, we now believe that adding exposure to
the U.S. on a selective basis during 2H08 makes sense. For one thing, as can be seen in Figure 11, non-commodity
stocks with exposure to the U.S. have been underperforming companies without exposure to the U.S. since the second
quarter of 2007, which leads us to believe that the exposure to the U.S. already could be discounted. In addition, from
an FX perspective, the case for a further depreciation of the U.S. dollar has been weakening, in our view.
Figure 11. Relative Price Performance Non-Commodity Companies with Exposure and No Exposure to the U.S.
250 41.7% High Exposure Non Exposure
High Exposure Non Exposure 38.1% 38.5%
37.5%
200
17.0%
150
100
50 -5.2%
-9.0% -8.3%
0
2005 2006 2007 YTD
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08
All data priced as of June 30, 2008.
Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.
6
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
TOP PICKS HIGHLIGHTS
Figure 12. Top Picks
Company Country Investment Thesis
America Movil Mexico We continue to see AMX as an attractive option to capture further opportunities of increased penetration of
mobile telecommunication services with a pan-regional Latin American approach. Looking forward, we expect
AMX to transition to a stage of continued organic growth, with a clear willingness to return excess cash to
investors. In our view, AMX’s growth during the next years will continue to stand out from that of its peers, driven
by a combination of: (1) favorable macroeconomic and demographic fundamentals; (2) sizable mobile
penetration potential in key markets, such as Mexico and Brazil; (3) increasingly efficient technologies; and (4)
AMX’s distinctive economies of scale that are important not only for global sourcing but also for operating in
markets where it has clear subscriber-share leadership.
A perception of increased competition in Mexico (where AMX still derives close to 50% of its EBITDA) has
recently prompted a higher divergence in opinions about AMX’s investment growth prospects. In our view,
Telefonica’s competitive stance in México does not encourage a fiercer price battle yet, but that still favors
oligopoly conduct, leaving room for increased voice and data usage combined with a partial recovery of average
revenue per user to levels closer to M$180.
Antofagasta Chile We believe Antofagasta continues to be an attractive way to play the copper market. The company is currently
trading at a 2009E FV/EBITDA multiple of 3.1x times, which represents a 43% discount to Southern Copper
(PCU). In our opinion, shares in Antofagasta are not fully reflecting the company’s growth potential and our
positive outlook for commodity prices.
Antofagasta has one of the highest profit margins in its industry. We expect the company to continue to have one
of the highest margins in the industry, mainly due to its operating advantages at Los Pelambres (Antofagasta’s
largest mine), such as a low stripping ratio and its state-of-the-art plant, in addition to high concentrations of
molybdenum, which is the company’s main byproduct. This operating advantage should allow the company to
face cost pressures, mainly related to energy.
In addition, we expect Antofagasta to increase its copper production 50% by 2012. Esperanza is expected to
start production in 2010, with a capacity of 195,000 tons of copper per year. We estimate that the expansion of
both the Los Pelambres and El Tesoro facilities should allow the company to increase its yearly copper output
from 425,000 tons in 2007 to 645,000 by 2012. In addition, while we regard the sale price of 30% of El Tesoro
and Esperanza to Marubeni as fair at a NAV of 2.0 times, if we consider that this valuation includes 70% of a
project that is expected to start production at least by the end of 2010, the agreement gains in attraction for
Antofagasta, as the company secures today's market valuation for a future project, diminishing its risk.
Endesa Chile We continue to believe that Endesa Chile is the best way to gain exposure to the attractive long-term outlook of
the electricity sector in Chile. Endesa Chile has one of the most aggressive expansion plans among the
generation companies in the region, with roughly 5,000 MW of installed capacity and more than US$5.5 billion of
required investment. We are incorporating only 27% of the total number of projects that Endesa Chile is currently
involved in into our valuation, as a number of projects still are awaiting environmental approval, even though we
believe that most of them will be developed.
The recent rainfall in Chile supports our positive view on the stock. In addition to the company’s attractive
expansion plan, we believe that Endesa Chile is in a good position to face the short-term tightness of the Chilean
electricity sector, mainly on the back of its commercial structure, which gives it higher price flexibility.
Furthermore, we believe that the recent rainfall in Chile should have a positive impact on the results of the
company over the rest of 2008.
We maintain our view regarding attractive long-term electricity prices in Chile. We expect long-term prices in the
SIC to approximate US$75 per MWh, reflecting the expected marginal cost of the system. Taking into account
the expected expansion of the system, and assuming that coal prices decline to levels around US$51 per ton by
2012 (from around US$110 per ton currently), we estimate that the marginal cost of the system should reach
roughly US$60 per ton, which, with the addition of the capacity payments, would reach around US$75 per MWh.
This is in line with the prices from the last auction undertaken by the distribution companies, which resulted in
prices between US$73 and US$78 per MWh for the 2010-2025 period.
7
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
Credicorp Peru Strong consumption and growing investment in Peru driving loan growth.
Gaining market share in the higher-margin retail segment
Aggressive distribution network expansion plan.
Improving profitability of insurance and pension fund businesses.
Most liquid stock to play growth of Peruvian economy.
GEO Mexico With strong exposure to Infonavit and the affordable-housing segment (80% of sales), Geo, in our opinion,
should be one of the main beneficiaries of the strong growth in mortgages from Infonavit (35% growth year to
date to April), and it has defensive characteristics in regard to increases in interest rates. Geo trades at an
attractive valuation with a 2009E FV/EBITDA of 5.5x, with a discount vs. Urbi and Homex of close to 30% and
ample room for re-rating
ICH Mexico We regard steel producer ICH as an off-radar steel stock trading at an affordable valuation, with the company on
track to return to growth in 2008. During 2008, the company will benefit from the consolidation of the recently
acquired Aceros DM, which added 600,000 tons of rebar (a consolidated increase of 16% in installed capacity),
and by the end of 2009, the coming online of the Rio Bravo project, adding 1.0 million tons of steel and 600,000
tons of SBQ, which will be fully operational in 2011. With the recent acquisition, ICH will increase its exposure to
the construction industry in Mexico to more than 40% of sales. The company has been able to increase prices to
reflect higher prices for raw materials, mainly scrap. Therefore, although we are expecting higher prices for its
final products, partially offset by higher prices of raw materials, we estimate YoY EBITDA growth of 48% for full-
year 2008. In terms of valuation, the stocky trades at approximately a 40% discount to its Latam peers.
Log-In Brazil In our view, Log-In is a defensive play, as we believe that the company has low volume-growth risk, even in the
case of a slowdown in Brazilian economic activity growth/
The company’s coastal shipping and container terminal business units should benefit from the strong growth that
we forecast for the sector in the coming years.
The fact that Log-In has the ability to provide integrated logistics solutions should allow it to capture market share
from the fragmented trucking industry.
Revenue growth should result in significant margin expansion, given the company’s high operating leverage.
The stock is trading at an attractive valuation level compared with its Infrastructure and logistics peers.
Marfrig Brazil This is the only Brazilian beef processor to expand its 1Q08 EBITDA margin YoY, and it reported the fastest rise
in its U.S. dollar export price (56%).
Expected 22% boost in annualized EBITDA from the recent six value-accretive acquisitions.
Differentiated and remarkably successful strategy of making small bolt-on acquisitions at attractive prices.
For beef, the deals increased its slaughtering capacity in South America, which offers competitive cost
advantages.
In developed markets, Marfrig is buying distribution and processing assets.
New poultry assets (consolidation in 2Q08) should lower EBITDA margin, but complement product portfolio and
offer revenue synergies.
Sources: Santander estimates.
8
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
THE BOTTOM-UP MATRIX – TOP PICKS OF COUNTRY AND SECTOR HEADS
Figure 13. The Bottom-Up Matrix
Brazil Mexico Chile Argentina Colombia Peru
Tegma (s)
Please note: (c) indicates country pick (s) indicates sector pick.
Source: Santander.
9
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
COMPANY STATISTICS
AEROSPACE & TRANSPORTATION
Price Target Upside/ Mkt 3-mthAvg Div P/E
Company Code Rec. 30-Jun Price Down Cap Daily Vol P/BV Yield 07 08E 09E
ALL America Latina ALLL11 B 12.91 18.00 39% 7,809 33.41 5.37 1% NM 39.5 25.6
CCR Rodovias CCRO3 H 19.84 21.00 6% 7,996 12.69 7.19 2% 19.5 21.1 18.1
Embraer ERJ B 26.50 55.60 110% 4,906 33.59 2.07 4% 24.0 10.2 8.0
Gol GOL H 11.28 18.00 60% 2,282 12.77 1.69 1% 95.7 49.4 10.0
Localiza RENT3 B 11.08 14.00 26% 2,235 4.90 5.15 0% 23.7 17.5 16.3
Log-In LOGN3 B 7.51 9.70 29% 689 3.50 1.95 2% 37.0 15.9 14.7
OHL OHLB3 H 16.71 18.00 8% 1,151 3.59 2.88 1% 21.7 20.4 14.5
Santos Brasil STBP11 H 14.46 16.00 11% 1,897 1.21 2.92 0% NA 34.9 27.0
TAM TAMM4 B 18.98 28.00 48% 3,576 12.34 2.79 2% 14.7 14.4 8.8
Tegma TGMA3 B 12.44 18.30 47% 853 0.71 3.22 2% NA 13.5 11.2
Wilson Sons WSON11 B 12.76 15.00 18% 908 1.07 2.59 1% NA 18.1 17.3
Brazil 34,302 119.77 3.42 2% 26.9 19.6 14.0
Lan LFL B 10.24 17.50 71% 3,266 8.38 2.72 3% 13.9 10.7 8.7
Chile 3,266 8.38 2.72 3% 13.9 10.7 8.7
Asur* ASR B 51.50 68.00 32% 1,545 1,545 6.35 1.08 39.8 15.3 13.4
GAP* PAC B 29.37 47.00 60% 1,635 1,635 18.73 0.64 19.7 12.1 11.7
OMA* OMAB B 16.58 26.00 57% 663 663 3.95 0.85 NM 10.1 10.4
Mexico 3,843 29.02 0.81 4% 30.6 12.7 12.1
Aerospace & Transportation 41,411 157.17 2.59 3% 25.0 17.6 13.2
Note: * YE2009 target price. NA not available. NM not meaningful.
Sources for tables: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
10
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
AEROSPACE & TRANSPORTATION
Growth US$
FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn EBITDA Company
19.2 15.2 12.4 41% NM 55% 43% 35% 21% NA NA ALL America Latina
9.2 9.2 8.1 28% 18% 16% 37% 16% 9% 16% 11% CCR Rodovias
22.1 6.8 5.1 -10% 37% 26% 10% 61% 25% 26% 32% Embraer
17.6 5.8 3.3 -80% -12% NM -35% 50% 69% 83% 44% Gol
12.8 8.4 7.9 42% 41% 7% 42% 48% 6% 29% 23% Localiza
20.5 9.8 7.1 NA 132% 8% NA 102% 38% 43% 50% Log-In
5.5 5.2 4.3 -12% 40% 41% 46% 18% 9% 40% 11% OHL
-1.1 11.3 9.3 NA 37% 29% NA 44% 17% 32% 25% Santos Brasil
7.9 5.7 4.2 -34% 1% 63% -22% 34% 32% 29% 28% TAM
-2.9 6.2 4.8 86% 170% 20% 54% 78% 26% 55% 38% Tegma
-0.6 8.7 8.2 12% -3% 5% 13% 15% 9% 4% 13% Wilson Sons
12.2 8.4 6.5 -13% 36% 40% 11% 36% 25% 27% 19% Brazil
9.4 7.3 5.9 28% -1% 23% 33% 10% 22% 16% 17% Lan
9.4 7.3 5.9 28% -1% 23% 33% 10% 22% 16% 17% Chile
12.0 8.1 7.4 -2% 119% 14% 30% 18% 9% 39% 11% *Asur
11.4 6.9 6.2 57% 7% 3% 19% 13% 9% 6% 10% *GAP
10.5 6.4 5.8 -95% NM -3% 21% 12% 11% NM 10% *OMA
11.5 7.2 6.5 4% 73% 5% 23% 15% 9% 25% 10% Mexico
11.7 8.1 6.5 -6% 33% 34% 15% 30% 23% 25% 18% Aerospace & Transportation
Note: * YE2009 target price. NA not available. NM not meaningful.
Sources for tables: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
11
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
12
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
CEMENT, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE
Growth US$
FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn EBITDA Company
11.3 6.6 4.3 9% -53% 90% 2% 47% 10% NA NA Irsa
4.0 2.6 3.1 76% 34% -5% 0% 6% -6% 8% -1% Juan Minetti
7.9 5.1 3.9 25% -23% 33% 1% 28% 4% -24% -24% Argentina
42.1 7.1 4.1 NM NM NM NM NM 136% 149% 149% Abyara
58.4 15.3 7.5 NM NM NM 31% NM 136% NM 139% Agra
38.2 13.9 11.2 NM NM 108% NM NM 40% NM 69% BR Malls
27.5 14.5 8.8 95% 43% 62% 59% 106% 72% 43% 62% Cyrela Brazil Realty
20.1 15.5 16.1 25% 58% -12% 93% 32% 16% 29% 25% Cyrela Commercial Prop
27.1 15.0 8.7 NM 82% 78% 122% 62% 72% 71% 59% Gafisa
17.0 11.8 10.5 83% 39% 16% 66% 54% 25% 38% 36% Iguatemi
28.6 7.5 5.4 NM 197% 40% 29% 311% 49% 82% 96% Klabin Segall
12.1 10.4 8.4 NM NM 40% 65% 44% 28% 104% 33% Multiplan
35.7 11.6 7.5 NM NM 55% 128% 268% 56% 112% 98% PDG Realty
40.2 17.7 9.0 NM 15% NM NM 67% 122% 51% 73% Rossi Residencial
17.1 12.3 9.7 NM -54% 55% 63% 43% 30% -3% 28% São Carlos
26.9 12.8 8.4 124% 106% 72% 83% 108% 64% 73% 65% Brazil
13.6 10.2 8.7 29% 34% 42% 29% 12% 14% NA NA Cementos Argos
13.6 10.2 8.7 29% 34% 42% 29% 12% 14% NA NA Colombia
7.4 5.7 5.2 1% 15% 15% 9% 13% 16% 14% 13% Ara
10.3 8.5 7.0 1% -19% 26% 11% 13% 10% NA NA Cemex
30.4 13.6 11.6 -69% NM 18% -44% 117% 19% NA NA CICSA
6.0 6.1 5.1 7% 6% 10% 17% 15% 15% NA NA Geo
8.9 8.7 7.1 47% 15% 25% 21% 19% 20% NA NA Homex
23.4 17.2 13.7 2% 94% 31% -4% 32% 26% NA NA ICA
8.4 7.3 6.4 24% 19% 21% 25% 14% 15% 20% 14% Sare
10.5 8.9 7.6 33% 34% 22% 32% 22% 18% 26% 20% Urbi
10.8 8.8 7.3 2% -7% 24% 11% 16% 12% -43% -46% Mexico
12.6 9.6 7.6 10% 8% 36% 16% 26% 21% -8% -15% Cement, Construct & Real Estate
Note: * YE2009 target price. NA not available. NM not meaningful.
Sources for tables: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
13
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
FINANCIAL SERVICES
Price Target Upside/ Mkt 3-mthAvg Div P/E
Company Code Rec. 30-Jun Price Down Cap Daily Vol Yield 07 08E 09E
Banco Macro BMA Uperf 16.62 31.25 88% 1,118 4.42 3% 11.3 5.5 5.3
BBVA Frances BFR B 5.30 11.00 108% 833 1.07 6% 13.5 4.0 3.8
GF Galicia GGAL H 4.95 9.50 92% 614 1.32 -- NM 6.8 4.2
Argentina 2,565 6.81 3% 15.7 5.1 4.5
Banco do Brasil BBAS3 B 16.37 18.25 11% 41,614 67.07 3% 20.9 12.1 9.4
Bradesco BBDC4 H 20.46 35.50 74% 62,810 206.79 4% 16.1 11.9 11.0
Banco Itaú ITAU4 B 20.31 32.75 61% 61,405 154.35 3% 14.6 12.3 11.1
Porto Seguro PSSA3 B 11.58 14.00 21% 2,671 4.97 -- 61.9 58.0 37.4
Sul America SULA11 B 18.22 23.90 31% 1,571 2.91 -- 46.1 32.1 29.4
Unibanco UBB B 126.93 185.00 46% 17,734 191.75 4% 10.5 9.8 8.7
Brazil 187,805 627.85 3% 15.8 12.0 10.6
Banco de Chile* BCH B 44.60 54.85 23% 5,061 0.88 0% 12.0 9.8 9.6
Banco de Crédito* BCI H 26.85 33.25 24% 2,640 1.38 5% 11.6 10.8 10.5
CorpBanca* BCA H 27.16 38.30 41% 1,233 0.11 -6% 15.8 12.2 10.1
Chile 8,933 2.37 1% 12.4 10.3 9.9
Bancolombia CIB B 31.39 45.00 43% 5,866 19.10 4% 11.6 9.9 8.2
Colombia 5,866 19.10 4% 11.6 9.9 8.2
Banorte GFNORTEO B 4.70 5.60 19% 9,495 19.33 1% 13.7 13.2 11.8
Bco Compartamos COMPARTO H 3.75 4.90 31% 1,603 2.79 1% 23.3 14.4 11.4
Fin Independencia FINDEP* B 1.45 2.40 65% 989 1.20 3% 25.2 12.1 9.8
GF Inbursa* GFINBURO H 3.63 4.27 18% 10,879 7.14 2% 15.7 18.8 13.8
Mexico 22,967 30.46 1% 15.5 15.4 12.5
Credicorp* BAP B 82.12 105.00 28% 6,570 24.50 0% 17.4 12.8 12.4
Intergroup* IFS H 22.50 25.00 11% 2,074 0.72 2% 18.2 18.4 13.7
Peru 8,644 25.22 0% 17.6 13.8 12.7
Financial Services 236,779 711.81 3% 15.5 12.0 10.5
Note: * YE2009 target price. NA not available. NM not meaningful. Sources for tables: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
14
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
CONGLOMERATES & INDUSTRIALS
Growth US$
FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn EBITDA Company
15.4 6.9 6.1 40% 212% -23% 14% 67% 6% 39% 23% Iochpe Maxion
11.2 8.4 7.7 45% 33% 9% 47% 43% 7% 18% 18% Randon
14.0 8.5 7.5 33% 25% 10% 22% 33% 13% 15% 19% Romi
12.7 7.7 7.0 41% 69% -3% 33% 47% 8% 22% 20% Brazil
12.4 10.7 8.4 7% 7% 21% 13% 13% 25% 14% 17% Enaex
9.3 2.7 3.9 -24% NM -87% 0% -18% -49% -4% -24% Madeco
7.7 6.6 5.3 -5% 29% 38% 25% 7% 17% 27% 9% Sigdo Koppers
9.3 6.6 6.0 -9% NM -50% 15% 1% 4% 16% 4% Chile
6.1 6.0 5.5 -26% 1% 13% 27% 12% 9% NA NA Alfa
7.4 6.1 4.4 24% -58% NM -25% 16% 34% NA NA Gissa
6.5 8.1 6.8 10% 21% 16% -8% -3% 11% NA NA Grupo Carso
7.3 5.6 5.1 -40% NM 17% -21% 12% 7% NA NA Grupo Kuo
10.3 6.9 5.5 97% NM 31% 58% 29% 24% NA NA PASA
4.6 4.2 3.9 NM NM NM 3% 3% 6% NA NA Vitro
6.3 6.7 5.8 -7% 23% 19% 2% 5% 10% NA NA Mexico
7.2 6.9 6.0 -3% 40% 5% 6% 8% 9% -30% -36% Conglomerates & Industrials
FINANCIAL SERVICES
P/BV ROE Earnings Growth US$ 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn Company
2.0 1.1 1.0 18% 22% 21% 5% 38% 6% NA Banco Macro
1.8 1.0 1.0 13% 28% 26% 51% NM 4% NA BBVA Frances
1.8 1.0 0.9 1% 16% 23% NM NM 61% NA GF Galicia
1.9 1.1 1.0 12% 23% 23% 26% 107% 15% NA Brazil
3.4 2.8 2.4 18% 26% 28% -27% 70% 28% NA Banco do Brasil
3.8 3.2 2.9 28% 29% 28% 73% 31% 8% NA Bradesco
3.8 3.2 2.9 31% 28% 28% NM 16% 11% NA Banco Itaú
3.1 2.7 2.4 6% 5% 7% 5% 0% 55% NA Porto Seguro
2.7 1.4 1.3 7% 6% 4% -21% 46% 9% NA Sul America
2.8 2.2 2.0 32% 24% 24% NM -3% 12% NA Unibanco
3.6 3.0 2.7 27% 26% 27% 54% 27% 14% NA Brazil
2.6 1.8 1.8 24% 22% 19% 14% 17% 2% NA Banco de Chile
2.2 1.8 1.7 20% 17% 17% 7% -4% 3% NA Banco de Crédito
1.7 1.3 1.3 12% 11% 13% 34% -2% 21% NA CorpBanca
2.3 1.7 1.7 20% 18% 17% 14% 8% 4% NA Chile
2.4 2.2 1.9 25% 23% 24% 50% 18% 14% NA Bancolombia
2.4 2.2 1.9 25% 23% 24% 50% 18% 14% NA Colombia
2.8 2.7 2.3 23% 22% 21% 14% 17% 12% 16% Banorte
8.8 5.3 4.4 47% 44% 42% 34% 40% 26% 32% Bco Compartamos
5.8 3.9 3.2 32% 36% 36% 44% 76% 24% 44% Fin Independencia
2.0 2.1 1.8 14% 13% 14% 112% 21% 37% 32% GF Inbursa
2.6 2.4 2.1 19% 18% 18% 42% 23% 23% 25% Peru
5.0 5.1 4.7 30% 41% 39% 52% 47% 3% NA Credicorp
3.6 3.7 3.2 26% 23% 25% 57% 27% 35% 20% Intergroup
4.7 4.7 4.2 29% 36% 35% 53% 43% 9% -30% Peru
3.3 2.8 2.5 25% 25% 25% 50% 27% 14% -45% Financial Services
Note: * YE2009 target price. NA not available. NM not meaningful.
Sources for tables: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
15
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
Food, Bev & Tobacco 135,520 220.04 2.57 3% 21.1 19.2 14.4
Note: * YE2009 target price. NA not available. NM not meaningful.
Sources for tables: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
16
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
FOOD, BEVERAGE & TOBACCO
Growth US$
FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn EBITDA Company
11.3 8.1 7.4 12% 44% 40% 28% 22% 6% NA NA Ambev
11.3 8.1 7.4 12% 44% 40% 28% 22% 6% NA NA Brazil
7.8 5.5 5.2 22% 3% 6% 25% 13% 3% 7% 9% Andina B
9.2 6.4 5.8 56% 9% 18% 29% 15% 4% 10% 8% CCU
13.9 10.7 9.5 NM 6% 16% 83% 2% 10% 11% 7% Concha y Toro
10.0 9.1 7.8 NM -23% 26% 93% -24% 15% 16% 0% San Pedro
9.5 6.8 6.3 50% 6% 13% 35% 11% 5% 9% 8% Chile
7.9 8.0 7.3 40% 16% 7% 17% 9% 5% 11% 7% Coca-Cola FEMSA
6.7 6.6 6.2 11% 7% 6% 12% 9% 5% NA NA Embotelladoras Arca
7.8 8.0 7.1 4% 21% 14% 5% 11% 8% NA NA Grupo Continental
6.9 6.9 6.5 -1% 8% 5% 9% 3% 7% NA NA FEMSA
8.1 8.3 7.6 7% 2% 7% 23% 6% 9% NA NA Grupo Modelo
7.9 8.0 7.3 13% 11% 9% 13% 8% 7% -30% -37% Mexico
9.5 8.1 7.5 15% 22% 21% 20% 14% 7% -31% -40% Beverage
46.2 61.6 56.0 47% -35% 72% NM -12% 10% NA NA Cresud
24.8 28.3 15.7 NM -30% 12% 8% -16% 34% NA NA Molinos Rio
29.5 35.9 23.6 NM -31% 20% 23% -15% 29% NA NA Argentina
13.1 11.6 9.2 NM NM NM 48% 63% 19% NA NA JBS
12.1 8.7 6.6 48% NM 81% 72% 102% 26% NA NA Marfrig
9.0 6.5 5.7 -28% NM 18% 11% 42% 22% NA NA Minerva
11.6 9.9 8.0 NM NM NM NM 74% 21% 46% 33% Perdigão
8.2 9.3 7.9 NM -11% 27% 87% 20% 24% 9% 18% Sadia
10.7 9.8 8.0 52% -39% 308% 83% 55% 22% 21% 6% Brazil
10.6 7.4 6.2 -49% -3% 62% -25% -8% 23% 25% 9% Iansa
4.1 15.0 11.5 -60% -13% 18% -26% 18% 28% 27% 28% Invermar
1.5 33.1 16.3 -57% -97% NM -40% -47% 132% 7% 22% Multiexport
5.0 17.5 12.1 -56% -58% 116% -33% -19% 56% 16% 19% Chile
11.3 10.5 9.8 12% 42% 8% 42% 7% 4% NA NA Chocolates
11.3 10.5 9.8 12% 42% 8% 42% 7% 4% NA NA Colombia
9.3 8.8 7.8 8% 20% 15% 10% 14% 10% 15% 10% Bimbo
6.4 6.3 5.4 18% -9% 4% 3% 4% 10% NA NA Gruma
9.5 8.7 7.7 11% 11% 12% 8% 11% 10% 15% 10% Mexico
22.0 9.1 7.1 NM NM 82% -12% NM 15% NA NA Copeinca
22.0 9.1 7.1 NM NM 82% -12% NM 15% NA NA Peru
11.0 10.2 8.4 28% -12% 102% 38% 34% 18% 6% 0% Food
10.0 9.3 8.8 38% 20% 4% 42% 14% 5% 9% 8% Souza Cruz
10.0 9.3 8.8 38% 20% 4% 42% 14% 5% 9% 8% Brazil
10.0 9.3 8.8 38% 20% 4% 42% 14% 5% 9% 8% Tobacco
9.8 8.7 7.8 19% 15% 33% 24% 18% 9% -16% -25% Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Note: * YE2009 target price. NA not available. NM not meaningful.
Sources for tables: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
17
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
18
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
METALS & MINING
Growth US$
FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn EBITDA Company
15.4 11.5 10.1 NA NM NM NA 123% 9% 13% 38% Magnesita
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Vale do Rio Doce
15.4 11.5 10.1 -- -- -- -- 123% 9% 13% 38% Brazil
5.1 3.7 3.1 6% 17% 11% 0% 15% 6% 9% 6% Antofagasta
14.9 36.8 36.4 24% 3% 0% 12% 2% 1% NA NA SQM
6.2 7.1 6.4 8% 15% 10% 1% 14% 5% 9% 6% Chile
5.1 4.0 3.0 9% 36% 24% 11% 24% 21% 15% 13% Grupo Mexico
12.1 12.8 13.3 -1% 15% -6% 11% 14% -4% NA NA Peñoles
6.4 5.4 4.4 7% 32% 19% 11% 23% 17% 15% 13% Mexico
17.5 11.9 10.9 -36% NM 53% 43% 69% 2% 52% 20% Buenaventura
8.1 6.7 5.4 10% 29% 26% 15% 21% 24% 14% 12% Southern Copper
9.2 7.5 6.1 2% 40% 31% 18% 26% 21% 20% 13% Peru
8.7 6.6 5.0 45% 30% 32% 47% 39% 25% 25% 23% Mining
5.4 5.9 5.0 -30% -3% 16% -11% -1% 12% NA NA Acindar
8.4 6.6 7.3 11% 4% -7% 24% 20% -4% NA NA Aluar
5.4 7.1 7.0 -4% 10% -1% -3% -1% 1% NA NA Siderar
7.1 5.8 6.1 -1% 16% 11% 4% -1% -12% NA NA Ternium
6.8 6.0 6.3 -4% 11% 6% 4% 1% -7% NA NA Argentina
10.8 8.2 7.0 NM 67% 15% 72% 86% 12% 33% 33% CSN
9.1 10.9 9.5 41% -6% 20% 31% 41% 13% 8% 18% Gerdau
5.9 6.5 6.4 40% 46% 7% 27% 48% 4% 18% 17% Usiminas
8.9 8.8 7.9 63% 27% 14% 39% 56% 10% 18% 22% Brazil
18.4 13.2 11.3 43% 82% 23% 42% 132% 18% 40% 48% CAP
18.4 13.2 11.3 43% 82% 23% 42% 132% 18% 40% 48% Chile
4.9 5.9 5.3 -29% 56% 5% -13% 46% 3% 23% 20% ICH
4.9 5.9 5.3 -29% 56% 5% -13% 46% 3% 23% 20% Mexico
8.5 8.4 7.7 39% 26% 13% 26% 43% 7% 11% 11% Metals
8.7 7.1 5.7 43% 29% 26% 40% 40% 19% 21% 20% Metals & Mining
19
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
20
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
PULP & FOREST PRODUCTS
Growth US$
FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn EBITDA Company
10.2 8.3 8.6 10% 26% -1% 18% 20% 3% 8% 11% Aracruz
11.7 7.6 6.7 60% 27% 15% 37% 34% 11% 15% 15% Duratex
-- -- -- 59% -- -- 26% -- -- -- -- Klabin
13.5 8.0 7.0 56% 33% 3% 18% 61% 6% 16% 20% Suzano
15.8 12.4 7.1 NM -68% 73% -13% 17% 70% -14% 33% VCP
12.7 8.6 7.4 82% -20% 16% 14% 36% 15% 0% 19% Brazil
10.2 7.2 NA NM 14% NA 85% 11% NA NA NA CMPC
15.3 8.6 7.3 24% 28% 9% 26% 24% 5% 18% 13% Copec
10.7 7.4 5.7 77% 89% 16% 19% 20% 11% 37% 15% Masisa
13.4 8.1 9.7 49% 26% -22% 40% 20% -26% 5% -1% Chile
13.1 8.4 8.3 68% -2% -3% 26% 27% -5% 2% 9% Pulp & Forest Products
21
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
22
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
TELECOM & MEDIA
Growth US$
FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn EBITDA Company
11.1 8.3 6.6 NM NM 56% 65% 38% 21% 54% 22% NET Serviços
11.1 8.3 6.6 NM NM 56% 65% 38% 21% 54% 22% Brazil
9.5 8.6 7.7 NM NM -24% 1% -6% 11% NA NA CIE
7.9 8.1 7.7 -4% 13% 12% 10% 12% 5% 10% 7% Televisa
8.2 8.3 7.9 -11% 24% 11% 9% 10% 6% 10% 7% Mexico
8.7 8.3 7.5 -3% 33% 19% 16% 15% 9% 20% 7% Media
Growths US$
FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn EBITDA Company
NA NA 3.8 41% 35% 22% 41% 35% 22% NA NA Nortel Inversora
6.0 3.4 2.8 NM 25% 34% 20% 16% 14% NA NA Telecom Argentina
6.2 3.4 2.8 106% 27% 31% 21% 17% 14% NA NA Argentina
-- -- -- 22% -- -- 23% -- -- -- -- Brasil Telecom Part
5.0 3.6 3.3 -9% 57% -4% 32% 23% 3% 11% 8% Contax Part
-- -- -- 40% -- -- 10% -- -- -- -- Telemar
3.8 5.2 4.7 80% 15% 10% 56% 6% 2% 7% 2% Telemig Celular
3.8 4.2 3.6 -79% -32% NM NM 5% 5% -34% 3% Tele Norte Celular
4.4 4.2 4.1 -6% 10% 1% 2% 13% 3% 7% 5% Telesp
5.4 3.3 2.3 NM NM 77% 36% 22% 21% 66% 15% TIM Participações
5.9 5.8 5.0 NM NM NM 36% 13% 12% NM 10% Vivo Participações
4.5 4.1 3.6 29% 34% 29% 17% 14% 7% 23% 7% Brazil
4.8 3.8 3.5 -41% 9% 40% -6% 2% 4% NA NA Telefónica de Chile
6.0 4.7 4.5 32% 13% 2% 20% 8% 0% NA NA Entel
5.5 4.3 4.1 18% 12% 6% 7% 6% 2% NA NA Chile
10.1 8.1 7.0 38% 1% 29% 51% 8% 18% NA NA America Movil
8.9 6.2 5.3 NM NM 42% 87% 21% 16% 48% 14% Axtel
4.9 5.7 5.7 -23% -25% -3% 14% 3% -1% NA NA Carso Global Telecom
6.1 3.9 3.9 28% 1% 0% 13% 3% -1% NA NA Telmex
8.2 6.9 6.4 19% -3% 15% 28% 5% 8% 48% 14% Mexico
6.9 5.8 5.3 22% 5% 19% 24% 8% 8% -28% -28% Telecom
7.0 5.9 5.4 20% 7% 19% 23% 8% 8% -24% -26% Telecom & Media
Note: * YE2009 target prices. NA not available. NM not meaningful.
Sources for tables: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
23
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
UTILITIES
Price Target Upside/ Mkt 3-mthAvg Div P/E
Company Code Rec. 30-Jun Price Down Cap Daily Vol P/BV Yield 07 08E 09E
Central Costanera CECO2 H 1.24 1.52 23% 182 0.04 0.65 -- 17.4 5.7 4.1
Edenor EDN B 11.40 26.50 132% 517 1.06 0.63 -- 21.0 6.1 5.8
Pampa Holding PAMP B 0.49 1.08 122% 742 2.03 0.56 -- NM 21.9 10.6
Transener TRAN Uperf 0.38 0.60 58% 169 0.12 0.52 -- 25.9 7.2 5.8
Argentina 1,609 3.25 0.58 -- 5.0 7.4 7.9
Celesc CLSC6 UPerf 29.67 17.94 -40% 1,150 2.03 3.14 3% 8.7 11.6 12.7
Cemig CIG B 24.55 27.43 12% 11,943 32.63 2.21 6% 38.5 29.1 32.8
Cesp CESP6 H 20.53 17.96 -13% 6,156 31.71 13.96 1% 7.1 10.0 9.5
Coelce COCE5 B 12.64 18.43 46% 984 0.57 2.23 9% 7.8 9.2 11.2
Copel CPLE6 B 20.41 18.28 -10% 5,530 14.15 1.26 5% 10.6 19.9 20.6
CPFL Energia CPL UPerf 22.72 19.45 -14% 10,905 11.10 3.88 4% 7.0 9.6 9.3
Eletropaulo ELPL6 UPerf 19.72 14.30 -27% 3,685 12.39 6.62 4% 9.7 12.7 11.5
Energias do Brasil ENBR3 B 19.97 21.62 8% 3,295 5.47 1.60 5% 9.0 13.3 15.6
Equatorial EQTL3 B 9.92 13.31 34% 1,048 1.61 2.21 6% 6.4 -- --
Light LIGT3 R 14.40 -- NA 2,929 3.22 1.72 6% 15.0 -- --
Tractebel TBLE3 B 14.96 16.25 9% 9,766 9.01 6.13 6% 10.6 14.0 14.7
Brazil 59,954 132.95 2.86 5% 43.0 19.8 20.6
AES Gener GENER B 3.54 5.40 53% 2,261 2.76 1.02 3% NM 12.2 NM
Colbun COLBUN H 181.50 234.50 29% 2,693 3.90 0.97 3% 28.4 16.2 12.8
Endesa EOC B 42.76 54.50 27% 11,690 8.22 2.58 3% 27.5 13.3 9.5
Enersis ENI B 15.58 23.50 51% 10,174 11.15 1.50 4% 24.4 8.8 10.9
IAM* IAM B 20.56 32.65 59% 1,028 5.02 1.01 10% 39.5 14.4 12.6
Chile 27,847 31.05 1.61 4% 17.4 5.7 4.1
Utilities 89,410 167.25 2.18 4% 14.5 13.9 13.6
OTHERS
Price Target Upside/ Mkt 3-mthAvg Div P/E
Company Code Rec. 30-Jun Price Down Cap Daily Vol P/BV Yield 07 08E 09E
Anhanguera Educacional* AEDU11 B 16.84 24.75 47% 1,695 1.51 3.08 0% 66.1 26.1 16.1
Brazil – Education 1,695 1.51 3.08 -- 66.1 26.1 16.1
Amil AMIL3 B 9.14 10.60 16% 2,684 2.63 3.28 0% 32.5 12.8 10.2
Dasa DASA3 B 25.85 31.00 20% 1,484 6.40 4.64 1% 29.1 33.0 21.4
Medial Saude MEDI3 B 11.67 17.40 49% 809 3.41 2.56 0% 27.2 13.7 10.1
OdontoPrev ODPV3 B 25.67 35.10 37% 654 2.46 5.25 4% 25.9 19.7 16.6
Brazil – Health Care 5,632 14.89 3.57 1% 30.1 16.2 12.4
Sonda SONDA B 1.24 1.55 25% 949 3.74 1.95 2% 17.7 16.6 12.1
Chile – Technology 949 3.74 1.95 2% 17.7 16.6 12.1
Others 6,580 18.64 3.19 2% 27.4 16.3 12.4
Note: * YE2009 target price. R = Restricted. NA not available. NM not meaningful.
Sources for tables: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
24
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
UTILITIES
Growth US$
FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn EBITDA Company
4.6 3.3 3.3 NM NM 46% 4% 4% 1% NA NA Central Costanera
6.1 3.2 2.5 -36% 50% 39% NM 4% 4% NA NA Edenor
16.1 4.3 3.5 -98% NM 5% NA NM 4% NA NA Pampa Holding
7.7 2.7 2.4 NM NM 106% -4% 5% 13% NA NA Transener
8.4 3.6 2.9 -96% NM 23% NM 30% 14% NA NA Argentina
3.4 4.3 4.4 NM -25% -6% 97% -7% -1% -10% -2% Celesc
5.9 7.2 7.5 31% 0% -9% 49% 1% -6% 1% 2% Cemig
15.1 11.8 10.6 NM 130% -11% 33% 9% 11% 40% 8% Cesp
4.7 5.7 5.2 -3% -26% 5% 1% -13% 5% -6% -2% Coelce
5.3 5.6 6.1 -2% 8% -18% 15% 6% -13% -7% -5% Copel
7.2 10.2 10.6 33% -36% -4% 25% -16% -3% -9% -4% CPFL Energia
6.3 7.2 6.8 69% -19% 3% -19% -6% 4% -5% 1% Eletropaulo
5.8 6.3 6.0 52% -6% 10% 33% 7% 2% 3% 3% Energias do Brasil
5.2 6.8 7.4 34% 2% -15% 21% 15% -7% -8% 0% Equatorial
-- -- -- NM -- -- 94% -- -- -- -- Light
9.1 10.7 9.8 NM 8% 7% 27% 14% 10% 8% 11% Tractebel
7.3 8.1 8.1 55% -11% -4% 29% 2% -1% -2% 2% Brazil
14.2 9.7 9.6 -52% 83% -4% -33% 35% 7% 27% 17% AES Gener
NM 6.9 18.5 NM NM -91% NM NM NM -44% -243% Colbun
12.8 11.3 9.4 2% 100% 26% 19% 24% 13% 34% 10% Endesa
7.9 6.3 5.1 -29% NM 40% 22% 16% 16% 45% 10% Enersis
7.3 5.7 5.6 17% 136% -19% 14% 20% 2% 18% 9% IAM
10.0 7.7 6.9 -48% NM 14% 6% 27% 10% 47% 11% Chile
8.5 8.1 7.8 -20% 20% 5% 17% 9% 1% 0% 9% Utilities
OTHER
Growth US$
FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR
07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E Earn EBITDA Company
64.8 21.1 14.1 NM 99% 61% NM NM 53% 67% 72% Anhanguera Educacional
64.8 21.1 14.1 NM 99% 61% NM NM 53% 67% 72% Brazil - Education
17.9 8.7 5.8 NM 106% 26% 197% 45% 34% 44% 32% Amil
12.9 10.5 8.1 NM 10% 54% 56% 49% 27% 31% 31% Dasa
26.8 8.8 5.8 32% 77% 35% 4% 156% 48% 42% 66% Medial Saude
17.6 12.2 9.9 NM 36% 19% NM 47% 47% 23% 28% OdontoPrev
17.1 9.6 6.8 146% 73% 30% 101% 57% 33% 39% 35% Brazil – Health Care
11.3 8.5 7.4 50% 1% 37% 45% 28% 14% 16% 17% Sonda
11.3 8.5 7.4 50% 1% 37% 45% 28% 14% 16% 17% Chile - Technology
15.8 9.4 7.0 116% 57% 31% 85% 51% 29% 34% 31% Others
Note: * YE2009 target price. NA not available. NM not meaningful.
Sources for tables: Bloomberg, Company reports and Santander estimates.
25
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
Latam Field Guide: June 2008 – Latam Believers, But Aware of the Cycles
26
Important disclosures/certifications are in the “Important Disclosures” section of this report.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
2008