Scribd
Upload
251 views3 pages

OPSCMProject Sss

This document summarizes a project submission that involved forecasting demand for smartphones, laptops, and smartwatches over the next six months. A weighted moving average method was used to forecast demand. The forecasts and forecast errors for each product category were shown for each month. Metrics like MAPE and bias were also calculated to evaluate forecast accuracy. Key recommendations included refining smartphone forecasting methods, collaborating more closely on laptop demand, maintaining higher safety stocks for smartwatches, and continuously improving forecasting through feedback.

Uploaded by

Sudhansu Sekhar Singh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
251 views3 pages

OPSCMProject Sss

This document summarizes a project submission that involved forecasting demand for smartphones, laptops, and smartwatches over the next six months. A weighted moving average method was used to forecast demand. The forecasts and forecast errors for each product category were shown for each month. Metrics like MAPE and bias were also calculated to evaluate forecast accuracy. Key recommendations included refining smartphone forecasting methods, collaborating more closely on laptop demand, maintaining higher safety stocks for smartwatches, and continuously improving forecasting through feedback.

Uploaded by

Sudhansu Sekhar Singh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 3

PROJECT SUBMISSION

Task 1
● Method of forecasting: Weighted Moving Average
● Justification for the choice of method:
In the case of forecasting the demand for the next six months (a short-term forecast), a
weighted moving average method is suitable. This is because a weighted moving average is
useful when we want the forecast to be more responsive to recent changes in the data.
Also, this method allows to assign different weights to past observations based on their
perceived importance or relevance. One assumption made in this method is that the
historical sales data accurately represents future demand patterns. This assumes that
factors influencing demand, such as seasonality or market dynamics, will remain relatively
consistent over the short-term forecast horizon.
Task 2

● The formula used for forecasting demand:

50% of Dec Actual + 30% of Nov Actual + 20% of Oct Actual = January Forecast

● The demand forecast for the next six months is shown in the table below

Month Smartphones (Forecast) Laptops (Forecast) Smartwatches (Forecast)

Jan 2110 1055 359

Feb 2145 894 323

Mar 2166 881 318

Apr 2148 939 334

May 2153 995 347

Jun 2154 1065 363

Task 3

● The formula used for calculating forecast errors:

Forecasting error = (Actual demand - forecast demand) * 100 / actual demand

● The forecast errors for the six months are shown in the table below
Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

Jan -32 -40 -39

Feb -30 -3 -11

Mar -38 0 -27

Apr -23 -2 -56

May -12 1 -74

Jun -6 3 -85

Task 4
● The formula for calculating MAPE:

MAPE = Ʃ l(Actual-Forecast)l / Ʃ Actual

● MAPE for all product categories for the six months:


Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

Jan 32 40 39

Feb 30 3 11

Mar 38 0 27

Apr 23 2 56

May 12 1 74

Jun 6 3 85

● The formula for calculating Bias:

Bias = Total Variances (Forecast - Actual) / Total Actual

● Bias for all product categories for the six months:


Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

Jan 510 300 100

Feb 496 29 31

Mar 597 4 68

Apr 398 16 120


May 233 -5 147

Jun 114 -35 167

Total Variance 2347 309 633

Total Actual 10528 5520 1411

Bias 22.3% 5.6% 44.9%

Task 5
● Recommendations:
○ Smart Phones: Refine Forecasting Methods: For smartphones, where forecasts
are relatively accurate, continue using the weighted moving average method, this
will keep sufficient stocks without overstocking. However, for laptops and
smartwatches, consider more advanced forecasting techniques or adjust the
weighting factor to improve accuracy.
○ Laptops: Demand Collaboration: Collaborate closely with sales and marketing
teams together with real-time market insights. This will help in fine-tuning
forecasts based on changing consumer preferences.
○ Smart Watches: Safety Stock Planning: Given the sensitivity of smartwatch
demand and the high MAPE, maintain higher safety stock levels to mitigate the
risk of stockouts. Continuous Improvement: Regularly assess and refine
forecasting methods based on actual performance and feedback loops.
Implement a robust Sales and Operations Planning process to enhance overall
supply chain performance.

You might also like

pFad - Phonifier reborn

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy