.

Chapter Two
Summarizing of Data

2.1 Measures of central Tendency: Objectives of Measuring Central Tendency

The most important aspect of studying the distribution of a sample measurement is the position
of the central value, that is, a representative value about which the measurements are distributed
and when it is convenient to have one figure that is representative of each group. This figure is
known as the average of the group. If the numbers of the group are arranged in order of
magnitude, the averages tend to fall around the central position in the group, so averages are
called measures of central tendency. In short, any measure intended to represent the center of
data set is called a measure of location or central tendency.

Objectives of Measuring Central Tendency

The most important objectives of measuring central tendency are:

 To determining a single value around which the other data will concentrate
 To summarizing/reducing the volume of the data
 To facilitating comparison within one group or between groups of data

The Summation Notation (∑)

Let a data set consists of a number of observations, represents by x1 , x 2 , ..., x n where n (the last
xi
subscript) denotes the number of observations in the data and is the ith observation. Then the
sum
n
x 1 +x 2 + . . . +x n =∑ x i
i=1

1
 n
x 2 +x 2 + . . . +x 2 =∑ x 2i
1 2 n
Similarly i=1

Some Properties of the Summation Notation

n
∑c
1. i=1 = n.c where c is a constant number.
n n
∑ b . x i=b ∑ x i
2. i=1 i=1 where b is a constant number
n n
∑ (a+bx i )=n . a+ b ∑ xi
3. i=1 i=1 where a and b are constant numbers
n n n
∑ ( x i± y i )= ∑ x i±∑ y i
4. i=1 i=1 i=1

Important characteristics /Desirable properties of measure of central tendency

We say a measure of central tendency is best if it possess most of the following. It should:

- be simple to understand and easy to calculate/interpret,

- exist and be unique,
- be rigidly defined by mathematical formula,
- be based on all observations,
- Not be seriously affected by extreme observations,
- Have capable of further statistical analysis and/or algebraic manipulation.

2.2 Types of Measures of Central Tendency

Several types of averages or measures of central tendency can be defined, the most commons are
- The mean
- the mode
- the median
The choice of average (measure of central tendency) depends upon which best represents the
property under discussion.

2.2.1 The Mean

a. The Arithmetic Mean (The Mean)

2
The arithmetic mean is defined as the sum of the measurements of the items divided by the total number of
items.

i. Arithmetic Mean for Raw Data

For raw data

n

x 1 + x 2 +. ..+ x n ∑
xi
x̄= = i =1
n n
for sample mean,
n

X 1 + X 2 +.. .+ X n
∑ Xi
X̄ = = i=1
N N
for population mean,

Example 1: You measure the body lengths (in inches) of 10 infants at birth and record the
following:
17.5 19.5 17.5 19 20 21 18 19.5 18 10.75
n
∑ xi x 1 + x 2 + .. .+ x n 17 . 5+19 .5+. . .+ 10. 75 180. 75
x̄= i=1 = = = =18 .075
n n 10 10

iv. Properties of the Arithmetic Mean

 The sum of the deviations of the items from their arithmetic mean is zero. This means, the
x , x , . . ., x n from their mean x̄ is zero.
algebraic sum of the deviations of a set of numbers 1 2
n

 (x i  x)  0
That is i 1
 The sum of the squares of the deviations of a set of observations from any number, say A, is

the least only when A= x̄ . That is, ∑ ( x i− x̄ )2≤∑ (x i − A )2

 When a set of observations is divided into k groups and x̄ 1 is the mean of n1 observations of
x̄ n
group 1, x̄ 2 is the mean of n2 observations of group2, …, k is the mean of k observations

3
 of group k , then the combined mean ,denoted by
x̄ c , of all observations taken together is
given by
k

n1 x̄ 1 + n2 x̄ 2 +. ..+n k x̄ k
∑ ni x̄ i
i =1
x̄ c= =
n1 + n2 +. . .+ nk k
∑ ni
i=1

Example: Last year there were three sections taking Stat 273 course in Alemaya University. At
the end of the semester, the three sections got average marks of 80, 83 and 76. There were 28, 32
and 35 students in each section respectively. Find the mean mark for the entire students.
Solution:
n1 x̄ 1 + n2 x̄ 2 +n3 x̄3 28(80 )+32(83 )+35 (76) 7556
x̄ c= = = =
n1 + n2 + n3 28+32+35 95 79.54

 If a wrong figure has been used in calculating the mean, we can correct if we know the
correct figure that should have been used. Let


x wr denote the wrong figure used in calculating the mean


x c be the correct figure that should have been used


x̄ wr be the wrong mean calculated using x wr x̄
, then the correct mean, correct , is given by
n x̄ wr + x c +−x wr
x̄ correct =
n


x , x , . . ., x n is x̄ , then
If the mean of 1 2
x ±k , x 2±k , . . .,x n ±k will be x̄±k
a) the mean of 1

b) The mean of
kx 1 , kx 2 , .. .,kx n will bek x̄ .

Example: An average weight of 10 students was calculated to be 65 kg, but latter, it was
discovered that one measurement was misread as 40 kg instead of 80 kg. Calculate the corrected
average weight.

4
 n x̄ wr + x c− x wr 10 ( 68)+80−40
x̄ correct = = =69
Solution: n 10
Merits of Arithmetic Mean
- Arithmetic mean is rigidly defined and its value is always definite.
- It is calculated based on all observations.
- Arithmetic mean is simple to calculate and easy to understand. It doesn’t need arraying
(arranging in increasing or decreasing order) of the data.
- Arithmetic mean is also capable of further algebraic treatment.
- It affords a good standard of comparison.

Drawbacks of Arithmetic Mean

- It is highly affected by extreme (abnormal) observations in the series. For instance, the
monthly incomes of three boys are 37 birr, 53 birr and 48 birr and that of their father is 1026
birr. The average income become becomes 219 birr which is not at all a representative
figure.
- It can be a number which does not exist in the series.
- It sometime gives such results which appear almost absurd. For example it is likely that we
can get an average of ‘3.6 children’ per family.
- It gives greater importance to bigger items of a series and lesser importance to smaller items.
That means it is an upward bias measure.
- It can’t be calculated for open-ended classes.

Merits of mode
- Mode is not affected by extreme values.
- Mode can be calculated even in the case of open-end intervals. And it is not necessary to know all
observations.

Demerits of mode

- Mode may not exist in the series and if it exists it may not be a unique value.
- It does not fulfill most of the requirements of a good measure of central tendency
- It may be unrepresentative in many cases.

5
2.2.3 The Median
~
x
The median is the midpoint of the data array. The median of is denoted by . For ungrouped data
the median is obtained by

~x=¿ x if the number of items, n, is odd ¿¿¿

{n+1
2
¿
Merits of median

- Median is a positional average and hence it is not influenced by extreme values.

- Median is rigidly defined so that its value is always definite.
- Median can be calculated even in case of open-ended intervals.

Demerits of median

- It is not capable of further algebraic treatment.

- It is not a good representative of the data if the number of items (data) is small.
- The arrangement of items in order of magnitude is sometimes very tedious process if the number
of items is very large.

2.4 Measures of Dispersion (Variation)

Variation (dispersion) is the scatter or spread of observations /values/ in a distribution. The
average or central value is of little use unless the degree of variation, which occurs about it, is
given. If the scatter about the measure of central tendency is very large, the average is not a
typical value. Therefore it is necessary to develop a quantitative measure of the dispersion (or
variation) of the values about the average.

Measures of variation are statistical measures, which provide ways of measuring the extent to
which the data are dispersed or spread out.

Objectives of measuring variation

Measures of variation are needed for the following basic objectives.

 To judge the reliability of a measure of central tendency

6
  To compare two or more sets of data with regard to their variability
 To control variability itself like in quality control, body temperature, etc.
 To make further statistical analysis or to facilitate the use of other statistical measures.

Properties of a good measure of dispersion

A good measure of dispersion should:

- be rigidly defined by a mathematical formula,
- be simple to understand and easy to calculate,
- be unique,
- be based on all observations in the series,
- not be affected by some extreme values existing in the series,
- be capable of further algebraic treatment as well as further statistical analysis.

Absolute and Relative Measures of Dispersion

Measures of dispersion /variation may be either absolute or relative. Absolute measures of

dispersion are expressed in the same unit of measurement in which the original data are given.
These values may be used to compare the variation in two distributions provided that the
variables are in the same units and of the same average.

In case the two sets of data are expressed in different units, however, such as quintals of sugar
versus tons of sugarcane or if the average sizes are very different such as manager’s salary versus
worker’s salary, the absolute measures of dispersion are not comparable. In such cases measures
of relative dispersion should be used.

A measure of relative dispersion is the ratio of a measure of absolute dispersion to an appropriate

measure of central tendency. It is sometimes called coefficient of dispersion because the word
“coefficient” represents a pure number (that is independent of any unit of measurement). Note
also that the value of a relative dispersion is unit less quantity.

7
Some types of measures of variation are discussed below.

2.4.1 The Range, Variance, Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation

i. The Range and Relative Range

Range (R) is defined as the difference between the largest and the smallest observation in a given

set of data. That is,

R=x max −x min where xmax and xmin are the largest and the smallest
observations in the series respectively.

In case grouped data, range is found by taking the difference between the class mark of the last
R=CM last −CM first CM last CM first
class and that of the first class. That is, where and are the
class marks of the last class and that of the first class respectively.

A relative range (RR), also known as coefficient of range, is given by

x max −x min R
RR= = . . . . . . . . for ungrouped data
x max +x min x max +x min
CM −CM first R
RR= last = . . . . . . . . . for grouped data
CM last +CM first CM last +CM first

Properties of Range and Relative Range

- Range and relative range are easy to calculate and simple to understand.
- Both cannot be computed for grouped data with open ended classes.
- They do not tell us anything about the distribution of values in the series.

Example: Find the range and relative range for the monthly salary of ten workers in a certain
paint factory given below.

462 480 534 624 498 552 606 588 516 570

Solution:
x max =624 birr x min=462 birr
R=x max −x min =624 birr−462 birr=162 birr
x max −x min 624 birr−462 birr 162 birr
RR= = = =0 . 149
x max +x min 624 birr+462 birr 1086 birr

8
Example: Find the values of the range and relative range for the following frequency
distribution: which shows the distribution of the maximum loads supported by a certain number
of cables.

Maximum load Number

(in kilo-Newton) of cables
93 – 97 2
98 – 102 5
103 – 107 12
108 – 112 17
113 – 117 14
118 – 122 6
123 – 127 3
128 – 132 1

Solution:

M first =95 kN M last =130 kN

R=CM last −CM first =130 kN −95 kN=35 kN
CM last −CM first 130 kN −95 kN 35 kN
RR= = = =0 .156
CM last +CM first 130 kN +95 kN 225 kN

ii. The Variance

Variance is the arithmetic mean of the square of the deviation of observations from their
arithmetic mean.
2
 Population Variance (σ )
For raw data

( (∑ ) )
N N 2

∑ ( x i −μ ) 2
1
N
i=1
xi
2
σ=
i=1
N
=...=
N
∑ x 2i − N
i=1

μ
Where is the population arithmetic mean and N is the total number of observations in the
population.

9
For ungrouped FD

( (∑ ) )
k k 2

∑ f i ( ( x i −μ )2 ) 1
k
i=1
f i xi
2
σ=
i=1
N
=. . .=
N
∑ f i x i2 N
i=1

Where μ is the population arithmetic mean,

x i is value/ reading of thei th class, k is number of
f th
classes, i is the frequency of thei class and
N= ∑ fi.

For grouped data

( (∑ ) )
k k 2

∑ f i ( ( x i −μ ) )
2
1
k
i=1
f i xi
2
σ=
i=1
N
=. . .=
N
∑ f i x i2 N
i=1

Where μ is the population arithmetic mean,

x i is the class mark of thei th class, k is number of
f th
classes, i is the frequency of thei class and
N= ∑ fi.
Where μ is the population arithmetic mean,
x i is th
the class mark of thei class,
f i is the

th
frequency of thei class and
N=∑ f i .

2
 Sample Variance ( S )
For raw data

( (∑ ) )
n n 2

∑ ( x i− x̄ )2 1
n
i=1
xi
2
S=
i=1
n−1
=. ..=
n−1
∑ x 2i − n
i=1

Where x̄ is the sample arithmetic mean and n is the total number of observations in the sample.
For ungrouped FD

10
 ( (∑ ) )
k k 2

∑ f i (x i − x̄)2 1
k
i=1
f i xi
2
S=
i=1
n−1
=...=
n−1
∑ f i x i2 − n
i=1

Where x̄ is the sample arithmetic mean,

x i is the data value of thei class, k is number of
th

f th
classes, i is the frequency of thei class and
n= ∑ f i.
For grouped data

( (∑ ) )
k k 2

∑ f i (x i − x̄)2 1
k
i=1
f i xi
2
S=
i=1
n−1
=...=
n−1
∑ f i x i2 − n
i=1

Where x̄ is the sample arithmetic mean,

x i is the class mark of thei class, k is number of
th

f th
classes, i is the frequency of thei class and
n= ∑ f i.
iii. The Standard Deviation

Standard deviation is the positive square root of the variance.

 Population Standard Deviation (σ )

σ =√ σ 2 whereσ 2 is the population variance.

 Sample Standard Deviation ( S )

S= √ S 2 where S2 is the sample standard deviation.

Example: Find the variance and standard deviation of the following sample data.

xi 5 10 12 17 Total
( x i − x̄ ) 2 36 1 1 36 74
n
∑ ( x i− x̄ ) 2
74
S2 = i=1 = =24 . 67
n−1 3

11
 √
n
∑ ( x i− x̄ ) 2
S= √ S 2= i=1
n−1
=
√ 74
3
=4 . 97

Example: Calculate the Variance variance ans the standard deviation of the temperature data.
(Assume the data as sample)

Class Class mid frequency f i xi f i x 2i

boundaries x
points ( i )
f
( i)
99.5 – 104.5 102 2 204 20808
104.5 – 109.5 107 8 856 91592
109.5 – 114.5 112 18 2016 225792
114.5 – 119.5 117 13 1521 177957
119.5 – 124.5 122 7 854 104188
124.5 – 129.5 127 1 127 16129
129.5 – 134.5 132 1 132 17424
Total 50 5710 653890

( (∑ ) )
k 2
f i xi

( )
k
1 i=1 1 (5710)2 1
2
S=
n−1
∑ f i x i2− n
= 653890−
49 50
= (653890−652082)=36 . 9
49
i=1

S= √ S 2=√ 36 . 9=6 . 07
iv. Coefficient of Variation
The standard deviation is an absolute measure of dispersion. The corresponding relative measure
is known as the coefficient of variation (CV).

Coefficient of variation is used in such problems where we want to compare the variability of
two or more than two different series. Coefficient of variation is the ratio of the standard
deviation to the arithmetic mean, usually expressed in percent.
S
CV = ×100
x̄ . Where S is the standard deviation of the observations.
A distribution having less coefficient of variation is said to be less variable or more consistent or
more uniform or more homogeneous.

12
Example: Last semester, students of Biology and Chemistry Departments took Stat 273 course.
At the end of the semester, the following information was recorded.
Department Biology Chemistry
Mean score 79 64
Standard deviation 23 11

Compare the relative dispersions of the two departments’ scores using the appropriate way.

Solution:
Biology Department Chemistry Department
S S
CV = ×100 CV = ×100
x̄ x̄
23 11
= ×100=29 .11 % = ×100=17 . 19 %
79 64

Interpretation: Since the CV of Biology Department students is greater than that of Chemistry
Department students, we can say that there is more dispersion relative to the mean in the
distribution of Biology students’ scores compared with that of Chemistry students.

Properties of the Variance and the Standard Deviation

Variance

– Its unit is the square of the unit of measurement of values. For example, if the variable is
measured in kg, the unit of variance is kg2.
– It is calculated based on all the observations/data in the series.
– It gives more weight to extreme values and less to those which are near to the mean.

Standard Deviation

– It is considered to be the best measure of dispersion.

– [Demerit] If the values of two series have different unit of measurement, then we can not
compare their variability just by comparing the values of their respective standard deviations.
– It is calculated based on all the observations/data in the series. Standard deviation is capable of
further algebraic treatment.
– Standard deviation is as such neither easy to calculate nor to understand.
– Similar to the variance, standard deviation gives more weight to extreme values and less to
those which are near to the mean.

4.5 The Standard Scores (Z-Scores)

13
A standard score is a measure that describes the relative position of a single score in the entire
distribution of scores in terms of the mean and standard deviation. It also gives us the number of
standard deviations a particular observation lie above or below the mean.
x −μ
Z=
Population standard score: σ where x is the value of the observation, μ andσ are the
mean and standard deviation of the population respectively.
x − x̄
Z=
Sample standard score: S where x is the value of the observation, x̄ and S are the mean
and standard deviation of the sample respectively.

Example: Two sections were given an exam in a course. The average score was 72 with standard
deviation of 6 for section 1 and 85 with standard deviation of 5 for section 2. Student A from
section 1 scored 84 and student B from section 2 scored 90. Who performed better relative to
his/her group?

Solution Section 1: x̄ = 72, S = 6 and score of student A from Section 1; x A = 84

:
Section 2: x̄ = 85, S = 5 and score of student B from Section 2; x B = 90
x A − x̄ 1 84−72
Z= = =2. 00
Z-score of student A: S1 6

x B − x̄ 2 90−85
Z= = =1. 00
Z-score of student B: S2 5

From these two standard scores, we can conclude that student A has performed better relative to
his/her section students because his/her score is two standard deviations above the mean score of
selection 1 while the score of student B is only one standard deviation above the mean score of
section 2 students.

14
 Chapter 3
Elementary Probability
Introduction

• Probability theory is the foundation upon which the logic of inference is built.
• It helps us to cope up with uncertainty.
• In general, probability is the chance of an outcome of an experiment. It is the measure of how
likely an outcome is to occur.

Generally probability can be divided into two

i) Subjective probability: - probability of an event in a certain experiment to be

occurred based on individual’s belief or attitude.

15
 ii) Objective probability: - the probability of an event in a certain experiment based on
experimental evidence.
3.1 Deterministic and Non deterministic models

Deterministic Stochastic model (probabilistic)

-> Certain -> uncertain
->mathematical ->non-mathematical (eg: econometric model)

3.2 Review of set theory: sets, union, intersection complementation, De Morgan’s rules-
(Reading assignment)

3.3. Random experiments, sample space and events

Random experiment: - is a process of measurement or observation which is repeated at any
time and whose outcome can’t be predicted with certainty. E.g. tossing a coin
Outcome: - a particular result of an experiment (result of single trial of an experiment)
Sample space: - is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. Each possible
outcome is called sample point.
Event: - is a subset of a sample space (one or more outcomes of an experiment)
Example1: if we toss a coin the sample space (S) of this experiment
S = {head, tail} where head and tail are two faces of a coin. If we are interested the outcome of
head will turn up then the event E= {head}
Example 2: find the sample space of tossing a coin twice.
S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Elementary or simple event: - an event having only one sample point.
Mutually exclusive event: - two events E1 and E2 are said to be mutually exclusive if there is
no sample point which is common to E1 and E2.
i.e. E1 ¿ E2 =Φ
Independent event: two events E1 and E2 are said to be independent if the occurrence of E1
does not affect the occurrence of E2.
Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is changed.
Definition of probability

16
Probability:-is a chance (likely hood) of occurrence of an event. It is expressed by a numerical
value between 0 and 1 inclusively.

3.4 finite sample spaces and equally likely outcomes

Finite sample space: when the outcomes of certain experiment are finite.

Equally likely outcomes: - if each outcome in a sample space has the same chance to be
occurred.
Example: In throwing a fair die all possible outcomes are equally likely. That means the
elements of the sample space have the chance to be occurred.

3.5 Counting techniques:

In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know

• The number of elements of an event
• The number of elements of the sample space.
That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to know what is possible.
In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use several rules of counting.
- The addition rule
- The multiplication rule
- Permutation rule
- Combination rule
In order to determine the number of out comes one can use several rules of counting
1. Addition rile: is a basic counting principle that is used whenn1 possibilities of doing
something andn2 ways of doing another thing and we cannot do both at the same time, then
there are n1 +n2 ways of possibilities.
n , n ,⋯, n k ways respectively, and no two actions can be done
If the n actions can be done in 1 2
n +n +⋯+nk
at the same time, then the total possibilities of performing the action become 1 2 .

2. Multiplication rule: - in a sequence of n events in which the first event has n1 possibilities…
the nth event has n2 possibilities, then the total possibilities of the sequence will be
n1 ×n 2×⋯×nk .

17
Example: The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in 4 digit identification card. How many
different cards are possible if
a. Repetitions are permitted.
b. Repetitions are not permitted.

Solutions
a.
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
5 5 5 5

There are four steps

1. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
2. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
3. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
4. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
Therefore, 5*5*5*5=625 different possibilities
b.
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
5 4 3 2

There are four steps

1. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
2. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 4 ways.
3. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 3 ways.
4. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 2 ways.
Therefore, 5*4*3*2=120 different cards can be prepared.

3. Permutation: is an arrangement of n objects in a specific order. In this case order is crucial.

a) The number of permutations of n objects taken all together is n!
i.e. n! / (n-n)! =n!
b) The arrangement of n distinct objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is given by
nPr =n!/(n-r)!= n(n-1)(n-2)…..(n-r-1)(n-r)!/(n-r)!= n(n-1)(n-2)…..(n-r-1)

18
 n
c) The number of permutation of n objects in whichn1 are alike, n2 are alike, k are alike is
n!
n1 !*n 2 !*.. .∗nk

Example: How many different permutations can be made from the letters in the word
“CORRECTION”?
n! 10 !
= =453600
n1 !*n 2 !*...∗nk 2!*2!*2!*1!*1!*1!*1! Permutations
Note: 0! =1! =1
Example: a photographer wants to arrange 3 persons in a raw for photograph. How many
different types of photographs are possible?
Solution:
Assume 3 persons Aster (A), lemma (L), Yared (Y) and n=3
Since n! =3! = 3*2! = 6, or 3P3 =3!/(3-3)!=3!/0!=6; there are 6 possible arrangement ALY,
AYL, LAY, LYA, YLA and YAL
Example2: fifteen athletes including Haile were entered to the race.
a) In how many different ways could prizes for the first, the second and the third place be
awarded?
b) How many of the above triplets just counted have if Haile is in the first position?
Solution:
15 objects taken 3 at a time 15P3=15! / (15-3)! = 2730
There are 14P2= 14! / (14-2) = 182

4. Combination: - counting technique in which the order of the objects is immaterial. Selection
of r objects from a collection of n objects where r<= n without regarding order. The combination
of n objects taking r objects at a time is given by

nCr = n!/(n-r)!r!
Example: In a club containing 7 members a committee of 3 people is to be formed. In how many
ways can the committee be formed?
Solution: 7C3 = 7! / (7-3)! 3! = 35

19
3.6 Definitions of probability / approaches of probability

i. Classical approach: - Uses sample space to determine the numerical probability that an event
will happen. If there are n equally likely outcomes of an experiment, and out of the n outcomes
event A occur only f times the probability of the event A is denoted by P (A) is defined as
P (A) = n (A)/ n(S) =

Deficiencies of classical approach

- If total number of outcomes is infinite or if it is not possible to enumerate all elements of the
sample space.
- If each outcome is not equally likely
Example: A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting?
a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c) An even number?
Solutions:
First identify the sample space, say S= { 1, 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ,6 }
n(S)= 6
a) A={ 4 } , n(A)=1, P(A)=n(A)/ n(S)=1/6
b) A={ 1 ,3 , 5 } , n(A)=3, P(E)=n(A)/ n(S)=3/6=0.5

c) A={ 2 , 4 , 6 } , n(A)=3, P(A)=n(A)/ n(S)=3/6=0.5

ii. Relative frequency Approach (empirical approach):- suppose we repeat a certain

experiment n times and let E be an event of the experiment and let f be the number of times that
event A occurs. Then the ratio f/n is called the relative frequency of event A.
number of times event A has occurred f
P( A )= =
total number of observations n

In other words given a frequency distribution , the probability of an event (A) being in a given
frquency of a class
total frequency in the distribution
class is P(A)=

20
Example: the national center for health statistics reported that of every 539 deaths in recent
years, 24 resulted that from automobile accident, 182 from cancer, and 353 from other disease.
What is the probability that particular death is due to an automobile accident?

Solution P (automobile) = no of deaths due to automobile /total death =f/n=24/539

iii. The Axiomatic Approach
Let A be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated with E. With each event A, a
real number called the probability of A satisfies the following properties called axioms of
probability or postulates of probability.

1. P (A) ≥0
2. P (S) = 1, S is the sure event..
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then either A or B occur equals the sum of of
the two probabilities P (A¿ B) = P (A) + P (B)
4. P(A’)=1-P(A)
5. 0≤P(A)≤1
6. P(φ )=0, φ is the impossible event.

3.7 Derived theorems of probability

Theorem l: let A be an event and A’ be the compliment of A with respect to a given sample
space of an experiment, then p(A’)=1-P(A)
Proof: let S be a sample space S=A ¿ A’ and, A and A’ are mutually exclusive A¿ A’ =φ
P(S) = P (A ¿ A’) = P (A’) + P (A) and P(S) = 1
1= P (A’) + P (A) => P (A’) = 1-P (A)
Theorem 2: let A and B are events of a sample space S, then P (A’¿ B) = P (B)-P (A¿ B)
Proof: B =S¿ B = (A¿ A’) ¿ B = (A¿ B) ¿ (A’¿ B)

Case 1: if A¿ B ≠φ , then P (B) =P (A¿ B) +P (A’¿ B)

P (A’¿ B) = P (B) – P (A¿ B)
Case 2: if A¿ B =φ , then P (B) =P (A¿ B) + P (A’¿ B) since P (A¿ B) = P (φ ) =0
=> P (B) = P (A’¿ B)
Theorem 3: Suppose A and B are two events of a sample space, then

21
P (A¿ B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A¿ B)
Example: A fair die is thrown twice. Calculate the probability that the sum of spots on the face
of the die that turn up is divisible by 2 or 3.
Solution:
S= {(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(3,1),
(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)}
This sample space has 6*6 =36 elements let A be the event that the sum of the spots on the die is
divisible by 2 and B be the event that the sum of the spots on the die is divisible by 3, then
P (A or B) = P (A¿ B)
= P (A) +P (B) – P (A¿ B)
= 18/36 + 12/36 -6/36 = 24/36 = 2/3

Chapter 4: Conditional probability and independence

4.1 Conditional probability:

The conditional probability of an event A in relation to B is defined as the probability that event
A occurs given that event B has been already occurred.
P (A/B) = P (A¿ B)/ P (B) where P (B) > 0
Remark: (i) P (A¿ B) & P (B)
(ii) P (S/B) = P(S ¿ B)/P (B) = P (B)/P (B) = 1
(iii) P (B/S) = P (B) because P (B/S) = P (B¿ S)/P(S) = P (B)/1 =P (B)
(iv) if A and B are independent event, then P(A/B) =P(A) and P(B/A) =P(B)
o Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of B doesn’t affect the occurrence of

A. i.e. P(A/B) =P(A¿ B)/P(B)= P (A)* P (B) / P (B)= P (A) since P (A¿ B) = P (A/B) *P
(B)= P (A)* P (B)
Example: Suppose that an office has 100 calculating machines. Some of them use electric power
(E) while others are manual (M) and some machines are new (N) while others are used (U). The
table below gives numbers of machines in each category. A person enter the office picks a

22
machine at random and discovers that it is new. What is the probability that it is operates with
electric power?
E M Total
N 40 30 70
U 20 10 30
Total 60 40 100
40
100
70
Solution: P (E/N) =P (E¿ N) /P (N) = 100 = 4/7

4.2 Multiplication Theorem, Baye’s Theorem, and Total probability

i. Multiplication Theorem

¿
If A and B are any two events of a sample space such that P(A) ≠0 and P(B) ≠0, then P(A
B)=P(A)P(B/A)=P(B)P(A/B)

ii. Baye’s theorem

Theorem 1: let {E1,E2, .., En} be partitions of the sample space S, and suppose E1,E2, .., En has
non-zero probability that is P(Ei) ≠ 0 for i = 1,2, … ,n and let E be any event, then P(E) =P(E1)*
P(E/E1) + P(E2)*P(E/E2) +….+P(En)*P(E/En)

∑ P ( Ei ) P ( E
n
)

=
i=1
E i

Theorem 2: Let {E1,E2, .., En} be partitions of the sample space S, and suppose E1,E2, .., En
has non-zero probability that is P(Ei) ≠ 0 for i= 1,2, … ,n and let E be any event for P(E) > 0,
then for each integer k, 1 ≤ k ≤ n, we have

P( Ek ∩E ) E ) P( E / E )
P( k k

p(
E k
)
n
∑ P( Ei ∩E)
=
∑ P( E ) P( E/ E )
n

i i
E = i=1 i =1

Example: suppose that three machines are A1, A2 and A3 produce 60%, 30%, and 10%
respectively of the total production of machines are 2%, 4%, and 6% respectively.
i. If an item is selected at random, then find the probability that the item is defective. Assuming
that an item selected at random is found to be defective.
ii. Find the probability the item was produced on machine A1.

23
Solution: let B be an event of selecting a defective item at random and let E1, E2, E3 be an items
produced on machines A1, A2, A3 respectively then
P (B/E1) = 2%=0.02, P (B/E2) = 4% = 0.04 and P (B/E3) = 6% = 0.06
P (B) = P (B¿ [E1¿ E2 ¿ E3])
= P ([B¿ E1]¿ [B¿ E2] ¿ [B¿ E3])
= P (B¿ E1) + P (B¿ E2) +P (B¿ E3)
= P (E1)*P (B/E1) + P (E2)*P (B/E2) +P (E3)*P (B/E3)
= 0.6*0.02 + 0.3*0.04 + 0.1*.06
= 0.03

E ) P( B/ E )
P( 1 1

p( E ∩B)
1
∑ P( E ) P ( B / E )
n

i i
0 .6∗0 . 02
We use Baye’s formula P (E1/B) = P( B ) = i=1 = 0 . 03 =0.4
iii. Total Probability Theorem:
Let {E1,E2, .., En} be partitions of the sample space S, then for any event A of the same
probability space

n n
P( A )=∑ P( A∩Ei )=∑ P( A|Ei ) P( Ei )
i=1 i=1

Probability of Independent Events

P( A∩B )=P( A )∗P ( B )

Two events A and B are independent if and only if , in otherwords,

P( A|B)=P( A) P( B|A)=P(B)
, .

Common Discrete Probability Distributions

9.1 Common Discrete Probability Distributions
9.1.1 Binomial Distribution
The origin of binomial experiment lies in Bernoulli trial. Bernoulli trial is an experiment of
having only two mutually exclusive outcomes which are designated by “success(s)” and “failure
(f)”. Sample space of Bernoulli trial is {s, f}.

Notation: Let probability of success and failure are p and q respectively P (success) = P(s) = p
and P (failure) = P (f) = q, where q= 1- p

24
Definition: Let X be the number of success in n repeated Binomial trials with probability of
success p on each trial, then the probabilities distribution of a discrete random variable X is
called binomial distribution.
Let P = the probability of success
q= 1-P= the probability of failure on any given trial.

A binomial random variable with parameters n and p represents the number of r successes in n
independent trials, when each trial has P probability of success

If X is a random variable, then for r= 0, 1, 2… n

P(X=r) = and P(X=r) is called a binomial

probability distribution .
Assumptions of a binomial distribution
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials.
2. Each trial has only one of the two possible mutually exclusive outcomes, success
or a failure.
3. The probability of each outcome does not change from trial to trial.
4. The trials are independent.
Examples of binomial experiments
 Tossing a coin 20 times to see how many tails occur.
 Asking 200 people weather or not they listen the BBC news.

Example 1. A fair coin is flipped 3 times, what is the probability of getting

a) No heads?
b) 2 heads?

Solution : Let x = no of heads

i = 0,1,2,3, (i.e. i is the no of possible no of heads)
P (getting head) =) P = ½ q = 1-P =1/2 , n =3

( )( )
0 3−0
3! 1 1 1
=
0 ! ( 3−0 ) ! 2 2 8
a) P(X=0) =

25
b) P (X=2) =
2. The probability that a student entering a college will graduate is 0.4. Determine the probability
that out of 5 students (a) none, (b) one (b) at least one (a) at most three will graduate
Solution X: No of students who will graduate
X = { 0,1,2,3,4,5, } P = 0.4, q = 1-P = 0.6
5!
( 0.4 )0 ( 0.6 )5 = 0.08
a) P (None will graduate) = P (X=0) = 0! ( 5−0 ) !
5!
( 0.4 )1 ( 0.6 )5 = 0.26
b) P (one will graduate) = P (X=1) = 1! ( 5−1 ) !
c) P (at least one will graduate) = P (X¿ 1)
= P(X=1) + P(X=2) +P(X=3) +P(X=4) +P+X=5)
= 1-P(X<1) = 1-P (X=0)
5!
( 0.4 )0 ( 0.6 )5
= 1- 0! ( 5−0 ) !
= 1-0.08=0.92
d) P (at most three will graduate) = P(X¿ 3 )
= 1-P(X>3)
= 1-
= 1-[5!/(4!(5-4)!(0.4)4(0.6)1+5!/5!(5-5)!)(0.4)5(0.6)0]
= 0.91296
If X is a binomial random variable with two parameters n and P, then
1. E (X) = n.p.
2. Var ( X) = npq
9.1.2 Poisson distribution
- It is a discrete probability distribution which is used in the area of rare events such as
number of car accidents in a day, arrival of telephone calls over interval of times, number
of misprints in a typed page natural disasters Like earth quake, etc,

A Poisson model has the following assumptions

26
 - The expected occurrences of events can be estimated from part trials ( records)
- The numbers of success or events occur during a given regions / time intervals are
independent in another.

Definition Let X be the number of occurrences in a Poisson process and λ be the actual
average number of occurrence of an event in a unit length of interval, the probability function for
Poisson distribution is,

P (X = x) =
Remarks
 Poisson distribution possesses only one parameter λ
 If X has a Poisson distribution the parameter λ , then E (X) = λ and
Var (X) = λ , i.e. E (X) = Var (X) = λ ,
∞
∑ P ( X=x )=1
 x=0

Examples 1: A company manufacturing light bulbs discovers from past experience that 2 defects
of bulbs are manufactured per 30 working hours. What is the prob that 4 defects will be
manufactured in 30 working hours?
Solution: Let X be the R.v that the no of defected bulbs and λ = 2 ,

e−2 .24
= = 0.09
P (X = 4) 4 !
Example 2: In a small city, 10 accidents took place in a time of 50 days. Find the probability that
there will be
a) Two accidents in a day
b) three or more accidents in a day
Solution: In 50 days we have 10 accidents, then the number of accidents per day becomes
10/50 = 0.2 or λ = 0. 2
Let X be the rv., the No of accidents per day
X ～poiss ( λ=0 . 2 ) X = 0, 1, 2,…

27
 e 0. 2 ( 0 .2 )2
= 0 . 0164
a) P (X = 2) = 2 !
b) P (X ¿ 3 ) = P ( X=3 )+ P ( X=4 ) + P ( X =5 ) +.. .
∞
∑ P ( X=x )=1
= 1- [ P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X =1 ) + P ( X =2 ) ] . . . . . ………… b/c x=0
= 1- [ 0 . 8187 + 0. 1637+ 0. 0164 ]
= 0.0012
3. a) Referring to eg.1, what is the expected no of defected light bulbs in a day? What
about the variance?
b) Referring to eg.2, find the mean and the variance for the no of accidents in a day
Solution a) E (X) = Var (X) = λ=2
b) E (X) = Var (X) = λ=0 . 2

Example 3: Suppose the number of typographical errors on a single page of your book has a
Poisson distribution with parameter λ = 1/2. Calculate the probability that there is at least one
error on this page.

Solution. Letting X denote the number of errors on a single page, we have

P(X ≥ 1) = 1 − P(X = 0) = 1 − e−0.5 ≈ 0.395

Work sheet

1. define mutually exclusive event

28
2. define independent event

3. What is Deterministic models

4. Last year there were three sections taking Stat 273 course in Alemaya University. At the
end of the semester, the three sections got average marks of 80, 83 and 76. There were
28, 32 and 35 students in each section respectively. Find the mean mark for the entire
students.
5. For a student enrolling at freshman at certain university the probability is 0.25 that he/she will
get scholarship and 0.75 that he/she will graduate. If the probability is 0.2 that he/she will get
scholarship and will also graduate. What is the probability that a student who get a scholarship
graduate?

29