Dynamic Forward Hedging
Dynamic Forward Hedging
Energy Trading
E.ON strategy
From To
Growth
Europe:
System transformation Æ Capture growth in renewables & decentralized energies
Outside Europe:
Æ Exploit opportunities in new markets
Growth & new technologies
Group Management
Other EU Support
Generation1 Renewables2 Trading Gas Germany3 Russia4
countries3 functions5
Optimization
Proprietary Trading
Discussion Material
Trading - E.ON‘s optimization and prop. trading function
EET
Adj. EBITDA development, 2008-2010 (€ m)
1500
Germany
1100
Prop trading
700
Asset optimization
Other EU countries
300
-100
Russia 2008 2009 2010
Generation Unit 2
Retail/sales
subsidiaries
Global Gas
Trading sells product; market margin (achieved price Trading procures volumes for the E.ON
minus transfer price) sits in EET supply businesses
Power/gas volumes (own & procured) Transfer price, fuel price and volumes
Optimization
Risk management
Prop trading
Optimization
Value creation at E.ON Trading y Arbitrage
y Cross regional/border
y Cross commodity
y Timing decisions
Risk management
y Cash flow risk
y Commodity risk
y Counterparty risk
Hedging
Bulk of the value created at E.ON Trading comes from its risk management function
and its (mainly) asset backed optimization function
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Sources of value creation
Optimization
Risk management
Cross-regional optimization
Illustration via interconnectors
Involved assets Optimization: use of balancing markets
Prerequisite
y Access to transportation capacity, e.g. BritNed
EET bids for
transportation Maasvlatke
capacity on BritNed (Rotterdam) : Idea
coal-fired power
plant, 1.040 MW
y Use of interconnectors (e.g. BritNed) to assist
Kingsnorth: coal- optimization and balancing of portfolios both for
and oil-fired power E.ON UK and E.ON Benelux
plant 1.940 MW
y Balancing power can be used to cover under- or
over-supply situations in UK as well as in Benelux
Value points
y Cross-regional arbitrage
Vilvoorde : coal-
y Reduction of penalty costs for system imbalance
fired power
plant, 556 MW
Optimization
Risk management
Cross-commodity optimization
Arbitrage via gas-to-power optimization
Generation costs in Germany – gas vs. coal Gas-to-power optimization
Prerequisite
65 y Portfolio of gas- and coal-fired power plants
60 y Plan to generate with a gas-fired plant
gas
55 y Gas volumes from a supply contract or market
50
Gen. costs [EUR/MWh]
45
Idea
40
y Coal becomes cheaper fuel to generate power in
35
30
that period
25
coal y Decision: Sell the gas at a higher price and
20
produce power with a coal-fired plant instead
15
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Value points
y Margin from selling the gas
y Margin producing power with cheaper fuel (coal)
Optimization
Risk management
Prerequisite
y Combines supply opportunities in Columbia/South
Africa with demand in Europe/ India
y Time charters offer shipment-flexibility to EET
Sales- (leading to reduced transportation cost)
API 2 Contract
Idea
E.ON‘s coal-
fired power y Increase of dark spread or sales margin because
plants
Sales-
of potential lower costs of coal supply, based on
Contract multi-sourcing strategy
C4
y Arbitrage between API4, C4, API2:
y e.g. buy API4 + C4, sell API2
y buy API2, sell API4 + C4
Value points
y Improve dark spread by sourcing cheaper coal
API 4 y Cost reduction through time-charter optimization
Leverage our large underlying demand to profit from global arbitrage opportunities
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Sources of value creation
Optimization
Risk management
Prerequisite
Additional big CCGT Tolling
coal-fired power Contract in
y Additional coal-fired power plant in region 1
plant in region 1 region 1 the company’s asset portfolio in that region
will be dominated by coal-fired units
Idea
y By entering a CCGT tolling agreement the fuel
Region 1 mix for region 1 can be enhanced
y Additionally the company’s long exposure to gas
in region 2 is reduced by delivering volumes to
Gas long in
region 2 the counterparty in region 1
y Generation portfolio improves without CAPEX
Region 2
Value points
Definition of origination y Spark spread of the tolling agreement
y Physical or financial commodity transactions of a “non standard
nature” - due to their scale, tenor or structure
y Portfolio-optimization value
y Transactions are of a longer term than traded curves, linked to physical
assets or provide new optimization opportunities to the portfolio
Enhance portfolio value with origination structures instead of outright asset ownership
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Sources of value creation
Optimization
Risk management
Hedging rationale
Ensure more
y Hedging outright power risk strongly reduces y-o-y volatility in cash flows
stable earnings
Increase planning
y Cash flow visibility needed to support capex planning
certainty
Reduce cost of
y For a given leverage hedging reduces the cost of capital
capital
Optimization
Risk management
Optimization
Risk management
Variable costs
Variable costs (nuclear fuel + fuel tax)
(gas + CO2 costs)
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
A power plant should run as long as the profit margin against variable costs is positive
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Sources of value creation
Optimization
Risk management
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Electricity
Variable costs Variable costs price
Capacity [GW]
(nuclear fuel + fuel tax) (gas + CO2 costs)
y On the electricity market, the price is set hourly y A power plant runs and earns a positive profit
driven by the variable costs of the marginal power margin if the power price is above its variable
plant [i.e. the last plant required to meet demand] costs
Optimization
Risk management
10 10
Expected value
Expected value extrinsic
5 5
Path scenario 2 intrinsic
0 0
t t
-5 Path scenario 3 -5 Negative spread,
unit will not run thus no loss
Today (forward market) At maturity (delivery) Today (forward market) At maturity (delivery)
Spread forward price 5€ expected spread price 5€ Intrinsic value is 5€ expected profit > 5€
(without market view) (additional extrinsic value)
y Intrinsic value is equal to the actual value of selling y The expected profit at maturity is higher than the
the underlying as forwards observed intrinsic value in forward market. The
difference is the extrinsic value.
Extrinsic value is essentially the value of not needing to run the plant when it would make a loss
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Sources of value creation
Optimization
Risk management
extrinsic value
Electricity price
Hours of power plants that are nearly „at the money“ have higher extrinsic value
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Sources of value creation
Optimization
Risk management
Short time left before delivery Long time left before delivery
Less volatile price more volatile price
t0 t1 t0 t1 t0 t1 t0 t1
y Higher volatility increases the extrinsic value y Longer time to delivery increases extrinsic value
Reasoning Reasoning
y The more volatile the price, the larger the y The more time left before maturity, the larger the
probability that an option change from “in the probability that an option change from “in the
money” to “out of the money” or vice versa. money” to “out of the money” or vice versa.
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Sources of value creation
Optimization
Risk management
Hedging focus of
gas-fired plant Pay-off of a power plant
Capture extrinsic value Total value of a power plant
electricity price range
Criteria for decision making Price view, risk appetite Volatility view, risk appetite,
hedge costs
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Sources of value creation
Optimization
Risk management
Forward hedging
100%
Playing field y Upper boundary given by
available market liquidity
75% Delivery
Liquidity constraint (intra-year
optimisation)
y Lower boundary given by Group
50% Hedging strategy risk bearing capacity and risk
Risk appetite constraint appetite
25%
y Optimized hedge path with the
0% aim to maximize risk-adjusted
2007 2008 2009 2010 return
80 Handover Forward price Cal-10
40
30
2007 2008 2009 2010
Capturing intrinsic value is hedging of the natural long position under risk/return principles
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Sources of value creation
Optimization
Risk management
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E.ON – Cleaner & better energy
Backup Material
Glossary
Term Description
Economic generation Volume of power that is “in the money” for a given period in the future (based on forward
market prices).
Clean Spark Spread Theoretical gross margin of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, having
bought the gas and the carbon emission certificate required to produce this unit of electricity.
Clean Dark Spread Theoretical gross margin of a coal-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, having
bought the coal and the carbon emission certificate required to produce this unit of electricity.
Intrinsic Value Part of option value that is equal to actual mark-to-market price of underlying (actual value of
selling the underlying as forwards)
Extrinsic Value Time value of the option (total option value less Intrinsic Value)
Delta-hedging A hedging strategy aimed at conserving the full value of an option, i.e. not only the "intrinsic"
value, but also the "extrinsic" value.
27
Split of responsibilities and risk between Trading and
generation unit
Mid term planning horizon
EET responsibility
Traded market access Generation unit responsibility
40
is € 68/MWh for Cal 2010)
20
0
Æ Volume x (achieved price – transfer
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 price) = Trading outright
optimization
Delta between external achieved price and internal transfer price for a given year of delivery
is reported in the Trading accounts in the optimization result in the year of delivery
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Hedging of E.ON‘s outright generation
As of Sep 30, 2011
German, Benelux and French market
2011 ~ 59 €/MWh 1
2012 ~ 54 €/MWh 1
2013 ~ 56 €/MWh 1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Nordic market
2011 ~ 43 €/MWh 1
2012 ~ 43 €/MWh 1
2013 ~ 45 €/MWh 1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
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1. Average realized price only relevant for the pure outright power position (Nuclear/Hydro) sold in the respective year
Simplified example: Handover of 2010/2011 baseload
volume in 2007/2008
German baseload power price (€/MWh) Simplified examples - very different outcome
100
2010 hedging • The average price of 2010 volumes was ~€55 in
90
2007 (handover period) => transfer price
Average achieved
80
Average price in 2010 handover
Price for 2010
= € 68 per MWh • As of June 2010 the average achieved price for
70
period = 55 €/MWh outright power at EET’s CE book is ~€681
60 Transfer margin
• Currently a positive transfer effect at EET and a
50
2010 handover period negative one at MU Central Europe
40
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
105
2011 hedging • The average price of 2011 volumes was ~€70 in 2008
95
(handover period) => transfer price
85 Average achieved
Average price in 2011 handover Price for 2011 • As of June 2010 the average achieved price for
75 period = 70€/MWh = € 59 per MWh
outright power in EET’s CE book is ~€591
65 Transfer margin
• Currently a negative transfer effect at EET and a
55 2011 handover period positive one at MU Central Europe
45
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
Depending on the time of the handover transfer prices may turn out
to be higher than average achieved prices 31
1. For outright power hedging please refer to slide 8
E.ON transfer price - Setting a price for optionality
Visualization of intrinsic and extrinsic value Extrinsic and intrinsic value
Value
Time value
(Extrinsic value) • E.ON transfer price mainly consists of two elements
Spread • Intrinsic value: clean spread based on market
(Intrinsic value) forward prices (as on previous slide)
• Extrinsic value: time value of the real option based
on changes of market data (e.g. price volatility) and
plant characteristics
Marginal cost Power price Forward price
– Trading pays a price for the time value of the
Probability distribution of capacity
Variable
Price
Peter Blankenhorn
Manager T +49 2 11-45 79-4 81
peter.blankenhorn@eon.com
What can we do to
François Poullet
Manager T +49 2 11-45 79-3 32 help you?
francois.poullet@eon.com
Marc Koebernick
Manager T +49 2 11-45 79-2 39
marc.koebernick@eon.com
Aleksandr Aksenov
Manager T +49 2 11-45 79-5 54
aleksandr.aksenov@eon.com
Carmen Schneider
Manager T +49 2 11-45 79-3 45
carmen.schneider@eon.com
Sabine Burkhardt
Executive Assistant T +49 2 11-45 79-5 49
sabine.burkhardt@eon.com
35
Investor Relations
November 13, 2012 Interim Report III: January – September 2013 Düsseldorf
36
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made
by E.ON Group management and other information currently available to E.ON. Various known and unknown
risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the actual future results,
financial situation, development or performance of the company and the estimates given here. E.ON AG does
not intend, and does not assume any liability whatsoever, to update these forward-looking statements or to
conform them to future events or developments.
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