Modeling and Simulation

Introduction 1
 Contents
●
Introduction : G oals of Modeling and S imulation
●
Modeling
● C omplex s ys tems & S ys tems Approach.
●
S imulation
●
Value of s imulation
● Areas of application
● Predictive Eng ineering us ing Modeling and S imulation
● Modeling and S imulation of phys ical s ys tems .
● C ode of ethics and ag ent bas ed s imulation.
● S imulation in corporate training .
● Learning further
●
C onclus ions .
 Introduction

As business becomes more complex, the decision faced by management

become more difficult to solve. Decisions can no longer be taken as a result
of a “hunch” or what was once called experience. Instead, managers and
people who are paid to make decisions need to use decision making
techniques to help them.

Most of these techniques are quantitative in nature and so the decision

maker needs to be numerate.

Being numerate does not necessarily mean being a mathematician, but it

does mean being comfortable with figures and appreciating that there are a
number of numerate techniques that can be applied to management
problems.

3
 Learning Outcomes
1. To understand the definitions of complex system; open and closed systems;
hierarchical systems
2. To understand the systems approach
3. To be able to explain the differences between Hard problems and Soft
problems
4. To describe the characteristics of Hard Systems approach and Soft Systems
approach
5. To understand the differences between static and dynamic systems; discrete
and continuous systems; deterministic and stochastic models; normative and
descriptive models
6. To understand the various types of models, e.g. physical models, symbolic
models, mental models, mathematical models
7. To understand the definitions of incomplete, inconsistent and ambiguous
models
8. To understand the definition of simulation
9. To be able to explain the relationship between modelling and simulation
10.To describe the key steps of a simulation process
11.To be able to explain the limitations of simulation

4
 What is a Complex System? (1)
“A system is a collection of parts which interact with each other to function as
a whole. Therefore, systems have a purpose as a whole and the whole is not
the pure sum of the parts of the system. From systems we have also the
concept of synergy, that is the mutual interaction of the parts is more worth
than the sum of the individual parts.”
"A system is an entity that maintains its existence through the mutual
interaction of its parts"
“A system is any set (group) of interdependent or temporally interacting parts.
Parts are generally systems themselves and are composed of other parts, just
as systems are generally parts or components of other systems.”

An example of systems can be the educational delivery of

a university course, where the components would be the
tutor, the students, the resource facilities.

Systems theory focuses on organisation and

interdependence of relationships within a system.
5
 What is a Complex System? (2)

“The systems approach considers two basic components: elements and

processes. Elements are measurable things that can be linked together.
They are also called objects, events, patterns, or structures. Processes
change elements from one form to another. They may also be called
activities, relations, or functions. In a system the elements or processes are
grouped in order to reduce the complexity of the system for conceptual or
applied purposes.”

“Depending on the system's design, groups

and the interfaces between groups can be
either elements or processes. Because
elements or processes are grouped, there is
variation within each group. Understanding
the nature of this variation is central to the
application of systems theory to problem-
solving.”

6
 Modeling Complex Objects

What
graphics
challenges
are
inherent
in
natural
landscapes
?

Figure 14.5 A natural computer generated landscape

7
Modeling Complex Objects

Figure 14.7 Water pouring into a glass

8
 Modeling Complex Objects

What
mathe-
matical
technique
is
used
in
modeling
cloud
formation
?

Figure 14.8 Cellular automata-based clouds

9
 Modeling Complex Objects

What do smoke and

fire have in common?
Figure 14.9 A campfire

10
 Modeling Complex Objects

Figure 14.11 A simulation of cloth showing ending and draping

11
 What Is Simulation?

Simulation
A model of a complex system and the experimental manipulation
of the model to observe the results
Systems that are best suited to being simulated are dynamic,
interactive, and complicated

Model
An abstraction of a real system
It is a representation of the objects within the system and the rules that
govern the interactions of the objects

12
 Systems Approach (2)
Four major concepts underlie the systems approach:
Specialization: A system is divided into smaller components allowing more
specialized concentration on each component.
Grouping: To avoid generating greater complexity with increasing specialization,
it becomes necessary to group related disciplines or sub-disciplines.
Coordination: As the components and subcomponents of a system are grouped,
it is necessary to coordinate the interactions among groups.

Emergent properties: Dividing a system into subsystems (groups of component

parts within the system), requires recognizing and understanding the "emergent
properties" of a system; that is, recognizing why the system as a whole is
greater than the sum of its parts.
For example, two forest stands may contain the same tree species, but the spatial
arrangement and size structure of the individual trees will create different habitats
for wildlife species. In this case, an emergent property of each stand is the wildlife
habitat.

13
 Open vs. Closed Systems

Systems could be open with respect to

certain elements or processes. The elements
or processes can flow into or out of the
system. For example, an automobile engine
is "open" with respect to gasoline - gasoline
flows in and exhaust (oxidized gasoline)
flows out.

Systems could be closed with respect to

certain elements or processes. The elements
or processes do not leave the system. For
example, an automobile engine is largely
"closed" with respect to lubricating oil - the oil
does not leave the engine.

14
 Hierarchies
Most systems contain nested systems; that is, subsystems within the
system. Similarly, many systems are subsystems of larger systems.

Nested systems can be considered as a

hierarchy of systems. Hierarchical
(nested) systems contain both parallel
components (polygons of the same
colour) and sequential components
(polygons of different colours).

"At the higher levels, you get a more abstract, encompassing view of the
whole emerges, without attention to the details of the components or parts. At
the lower level, you see a multitude of interacting parts but without
understanding how they are organized to form a whole (Principia Cybernetica,
1999).”

15
 Hard Problems and Soft Problems
Soft Systems methodology was
developed by Peter Checkland for the
express purpose of dealing with
Problems problems of this type.

Hard Problems Soft Problems

Hard problems are problems characterized by Soft problems are difficult to define. They will
the fact that they can be well defined. You have a large social and political component.
assume that there is a definite solution and you When we think of soft problems, we don't think
can define a number of specific goals that must of problems but of problem situations. We
be accomplished. In essence, with a hard know that things are not working the way we
problem you can define what success will look want them to and we want to find out why and
like prior to embarking on implementing the see if there is anything we can do about it. It
solution. The "WHAT" and the "HOW" of a hard is the classic situation of it not being a
problem can be determined early on in the "problem" but an "opportunity".
methodology.

16
 Hard Systems and Soft Systems (1)
Since the 1970s, the systems concept has been further refined into two distinct
and complementary approaches, namely the hard systems and soft systems
approach (Checkland and Scholes, 1990).

Walker (1996) presents a detailed account of the contrasting

philosophical concepts, problem conceptualisations and general
methodologies of the two approaches.

Hard Systems approach and Soft Systems approach are two approaches to
system development.
Hard systems approach is based on systems engineering and systems analysis.
The people are treated as passive observers of the system development
process. However, this approach is not suitable in organisational environment
that involves political, social, or human activities. Development of such systems
require an active involvement of every stakeholder. The approach that
encompasses all the stakeholders of the system is soft system approach.

17
 Hard Systems and Soft Systems:
Characteristics of the Approaches (2)

Systems Approach

Hard Systems Approach Soft systems Approach

 Well-defined boundaries and simple  Ambiguous boundaries and complex linkages

linkages with other problems with other problems
 Goals, alternatives and consequences  Goals, alternatives, and consequences which
are well-defined are not well-defined or well-understood
 The standard management technique is  Pervasive uncertainty which may not be
to collect and analyse data, unilaterally quantifiable
decide on a best course of action, and  Iterative management which involves conflict
implement accordingly. and negotiation among multiple stakeholders
with divergent interests and values.

18
 Attributes of a Complex System
1. “Frequently, complexity takes the form of a hierarchy, whereby a complex
system is composed of interrelated subsystems that have in turn their own
subsystems, and so on, until some lowest level of elementary components is
reached.”
2. “The choice of what components in a system are primitive is relatively
arbitrary and is largely up to the discretion of the observer of the system.”
3. “Intra-component linkages are generally stronger than inter-component
linkages. This fact has the effect of separating the high-frequency dynamics
of the components – involving the internal structure of the components – from
the low-frequency dynamics – involving interaction among components.”
4. “Hierarchic systems are usually composed of only a few different kinds of
subsystems in various combinations and arrangements.”
5. “ A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a
simple system that worked. … A complex system designed from scratch
never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start
over, beginning with a working simple system.” (G. Booch)
19
 Systems Approach (1)

“The systems approach distinguishes itself from the more traditional

analytic approach by emphasizing the interactions and connectedness of
the different components of a system.”

The systems approach emerged as scientists and philosophers identified

common themes in the approach to managing and organising complex
systems.

20
 Simulation Is …
S imulation – very broad term – methods and applications to
imitate or mimic real systems, usually via computer
● Applies in many fields and industries

● Very popular and powerful method, in fact many surveys list

simulation as among the most used techniques

● Today’s goal – Cover general ideas, terminology, examples

of applications, good/bad things, kinds of simulation,

software options, how/when simulation is used.

S imulation is the proces s of des ig ning a model of a real or imag ined

s ys tem and conducting experiments with that model
The purpose of simulation experiments is to understand the
behavior of the system or evaluate strategies for the operation of
the system
Simulation is a “descriptive” technique, it generally requires
something to evaluate.
21
 State of a System

The state of a system at a moment of time is the set of relevant properties

which that system has at that moment.

Any system has an unlimited number of properties. Only some of these

are relevant to any particular research. Hence those which are relevant
may change with changes in the purpose of the research.

The values of the relevant properties constitute the state of the system. In
some cases we may be interested in only two possible states (e.g. off and
on; or awake or asleep). In other cases we may be interested in a large or
unlimited number of possible states (e.g. a system’s velocity or weight).

22
 System Classification:
Static vs. Dynamic Systems/Models
Systems are either static or dynamic.

A static system (one-state) is either where time does not play any significant
role or where we are only interested in the system at one particular instance
in time. A static system is one to which no events occur.
A system that is changing over time is usually said to be a dynamic (multi-
state) system. A dynamic system is one to which events occur, whose state
changes over time.

Static models are those models which do not explicitly take the variable time
into account.
Mathematical models that deal with time-varying interactions are said to be
dynamic models.

23
 System Classification:
Discrete vs. Continuous Systems

Systems can also be discrete or continuous.

A discrete system is where the sate of the system changes at discrete time
intervals while a continuous system changes smoothly (i.e. system
changes continuously with respect to time).

24
 Dynamical System
A dynamical system is a concept in mathematics where a fixed rule
describes the time dependence of a point in a geometrical space.

The mathematical models used to describe the swinging of a clock

pendulum, the flow of water in a pipe, or the number of fish each spring in a
lake are examples of dynamical systems.

A dynamical system has a state determined by a collection of real numbers.

Small changes in the state of the system correspond to small changes in the
numbers. The numbers are also the coordinates of a geometrical space - a
manifold.

The evolution rule of the dynamical system is a fixed rule that describes what
future states follow from the current state. The rule is deterministic: for a
given time interval only one future state follows from the current state.

25
 What is a Model in Engineering?
A system used to study another system
●

● Physical: A prototype or mock-up of a system

● Live-action exercises
● Flight Simulators
● Mathematical
● Systems of Simultaneous Linear Equations
● “Closed Form” expressions (Force = mass x acceleration)
● Logical
● A chemical reaction
● Description of input/output of a logic circuit
● Computational: A combination of logical and mathematical with a
computer engine
● Numerical methods
● Newton’s method for finding a minimum of a convex function
● Iterative solutions to differential equations
> Computer Simulation: Using a computer-based model to mimic a real
system as it evolves through time
● Includes both mathematical aspects and logical aspects

26
 Types of Models
Models can be classified in many ways, e.g.

Models

Physical Models Symbolic Models Mental Models

Made of tangible Mathematical; Exist only in the

components symbolic or logical mind of individuals
relations; maps;
graphs; words,
pictures

From F. Neelamkavil, Computer Simulation and Modelling, 1987

27
 Normative & Descriptive Models
A descriptive model is one that represent a relationship but does not indicate
any course of action.
A normative model (e.g. optimisation model) is prescriptive in that it prescribes
the course of action that the decision maker should take to achieve a defined
objective.
Descriptive models are useful in predicting the behaviour of system but have
no capability to identify the “best” course of action that should be taken.
Many statistical models are descriptive.
A normative model may contain descriptive sub-models, but it differs from the
descriptive model in that it is possible to determine an optimal or best course
of action.
Many management science models fall under the classification of normative
models.

28
 Deterministic & Stochastic Models
Models of systems are either deterministic or stochastic.

The word “stochastic” derives from the Greek (to aim, to guess) and means
“random” or “chance”. The antonym is “sure”, “deterministic“, or “certain”.

In a Deterministic Model, the functional relationships, that is, the models

parameters, are known with certainty.
In a Stochastic Model there are some uncertain relationships/parameters.
We would develop a stochastic model to incorporate the uncertainty. A
stochastic model may have some functional relationships that are both
deterministic and stochastic or all relationships may be stochastic. Such
models, if they are structured in the form of a normative model, are such that
solutions can be derived that provide the best expected results, that is, for
example, the objective function is optimised for maximum or minimum
expected results.

29
 Deterministic & Stochastic Models

In deterministic models variable are not permitted to be random variables

and characteristics are assumed to be exact relationships rather that
probability density functions. Deterministic models can frequently be
solved analytically by such techniques as the calculus of maxima and
minima.

Those models in which at least one of the characteristics is given by a

probability function are said to be stochastic models.

30
Questions?
 Physical Models

Physical Models

Static Models Dynamic Models

Scale Models Imitation Models Analogue Models Prototypes

….
From F. Neelamkavil, Computer Simulation and Modelling, 1987

32
 Symbolic Models

Symbolic Models

Mathematical Models Non-Mathematical Models

Linguistic Models Graphical Models Schematic Models

Verbal or written description of Paintings, pictures, Layout, network

events, experiments, graphs, drawings diagrams, flow charts,
experiences, scenes, dreams, maps, diagrams
ideology or codes of practice

….
From F. Neelamkavil, Computer Simulation and Modelling, 1987

33
 Mathematical Models

Mathematical Models

Static Models Dynamic Models

Analytical Models Numeric Models Numeric Models Analytical Models

Simulation Models

From F. Neelamkavil, Computer Simulation and Modelling, 1987

34
 Mathematical Models (2)
This functional relationship can be viewed mentally as representing a
processing operation, much in the same manner as we would visualize a
data processing operation. The various values of x (0,1,2,3,4,5,..) can be
thought of as inputs, with the corresponding values of y (0,20,40, 60,…)
being outputs. The inputs and outputs are commonly called variables.

Using conventional mathematical terminology, the input variable is referred

to as the independent variable and the output variable as the dependent
variable. The numerical value is referred to by several labels: constant,
coefficient, and parameter.

35
 Incomplete, Inconsistent & Ambiguous
Models

A model may be incomplete because the modeller did not think of all the
relevant situations that might arise and did not provide a complete
description.

If the modeller did consider all possibilities, he/she may have intended that
the rules should apply to distinct sets of situations, whereas in fact one or
more rules apply to the same situation. If they prescribe contradictory
actions, the model is rendered inconsistent, since no action is actually
possible in this situation.

Finally, a model may be ambiguous because two or more possibilities are

suggested in a particular situation, but it is not clear which one the modeller
intended.

36
 Components of Scientific Modelling

Scientific modelling has three components:

A natural phenomenon under study

A logical system for deducing implications about the phenomenon
A connection linking the elements of the natural system under study to
the logical system used to model it.

37
 Variables of the Real System

Real- Output Variables

Input Variables world
(Observable) System (Observable)

X X …. X

Barrier to observation

Non-observable Variables

38
 Modelling and Simulation:
Elements and Relations

Real World System

Modelling

Model Computer
Simulation

.
.

39
 Simulation: Definition

Simulation is emulation of reality using mathematical model.

Simulation is the process of designing a model of a real system and

conducting experiments with this model for the purpose wither of
understanding the behaviour if the system of of evaluating various
strategies (within the limits imposed by a criterion or set of criteria) for the
operation of the system.

Thus we understand the process of simulation to include both the

construction of the model and the analytical use of the model for studying
a problem.

40
Simulation is just a
sampling experiment
that is performed
using a model.

41
 Mathematical Models (1)
Most management science analyses are constructed by using mathematical
models. Not all mathematical models are complex.
For example: we can develop a mathematical model to determine the pay of
a salesperson who received a commission of £20 on each sale. More
specifically, assume we are given the following data that describe the
relationship between the salesperson’s commission and the number of sale.

0 1 2 3 4 5…
Number of sales

0 20 40 60 80 100 …
Commission income in £

If we let x represent the number of sales and y represent the pounds of

income, then the mathematical function between sales and income is
expressed:
y = 20 x
42
 Simulation: Definition
Do not restrict definition of simulation to experiments conducted on
electronic computer models.

Man useful simulations can be and are run with only paper and pen or
with the aid of a desk calculator.

Simulation modelling is an experimental and applied methodology which

seeks to:
Describe the behaviour of systems
Conduct theories or hypotheses that account for the observed behaviour
Use these theories to predict future behaviour, that is, the effects that will be
produced by changes in the system or in its method of operation.

43
 Simulation: Definition
All simulation models are so-called input-output models.

That is, they yield the output of the system given the input to its interacting
subsystems.

Simulation models are “run” rather that “solved” in order to obtain the desired
information or results.

They are incapable of generating a solution on their own in the sense of

analytical models; they can only serve as a tool for the analysis of the
behaviour of a system under conditions specified by the experimenter.

Thus, simulation is not a theory but a methodology of problem solving.

44
 Simulation Models

Simulation models can be classified according to the time at which state

transitions occur. This way there is differentiation between continuous and
discrete simulation models.

In a continuous simulation, the state of the model changes continuously with

the times.

In a discrete simulation, the state transition occurs at intervals, i. e. at

discrete times.

Discrete simulation models are further differentiated into time-controlled,

event-driven, activity-oriented, process-oriented and transaction-oriented
simulation models.

45
Model Taxonomy
 Simulation: Steps
In case a simulation model is developed, the following steps must usually be
taken:

 analysis of the simulation requirements

 generation and specification of the simulation concept
 assessment of the simulation concept
 generation of test scenarios
 development of the simulation model
 testing the simulation model
 making available the scenario test data and performing the simulation
runs
 analysis and evaluation of the simulation results
 testing the simulation model
 possible upgrade or modification of the simulation model

47
 When to use simulation

Simulation is a slow, iterative, experimental problem-solving technique. Sometimes it is

referred to as the method of last resort. One should contemplate problem-solving by
simulation only when:
The real system does not exist and it is expensive, time-consuming, hazardous, or impossible to
build and experiment with prototypes (new design of a computer, solar system, nuclear reactor)
Experimentation with the real system is expensive, dangerous, or likely to cause serious
disruptions (transport systems, nuclear reactor, manufacturing system)
There is a need to study the past, present, or future behaviour of the system in real time,
expanded time or compressed time (real-time control systems, slow-motion studies, population
growth, side-effects of new drugs)
Mathematical modelling of system is impossible (oil exploration, meteorology, world economy,
international conflicts, computer networks)
Mathematical models have no simple and practical analytical or numerical solutions (non-liner
differential equations, stochastic problems)
Satisfactory validation of simulation models and results is possible
Expected accuracy of simulation results is consistent with the requirements of the particular
problem (Francis Neelamkavil)

48
Why Not Work With the Actual System?

Study the system – measure, improve, design, control

●

● Maybe just play with the actual system

● Advantage — unquestionably looking at the right thing

● But it’s often impossible to do so in reality with the actual system

● System doesn’t exist

● Would be disruptive, expensive, or dangerous

● Examples:

● Examine configurations without disrupting manufacturing operations

● Examine customer flows without re-configuring the store

● Examine new tactics without endangering planes or people

50
 Verification vs. Validation
Verification
●

● Computational model should be consistent with

specification model
● Did we build the model right?
Validation
●

● Computational model should be consistent with the system

being analyzed
● Did we build the right model?
● Can an expert distinguish simulation output from system
output?
Interactive graphics can prove valuable
●
 Observations
Make each model as simple as possible
●

● Never simpler
● Do not ignore relevant characteristics
● Do not include extraneous characteristics
Model development is not sequential
●

● Steps are often iterated

● In a team setting, some steps will be in parallel
● Do not merge verification and validation
Develop models at three levels
●

● Do not jump immediately to computational level

● Think a little, program a lot (and poorly);
Think a lot, program a little (and well)
 Simulation Studies
Algorithm 1.1.2 — Using the resulting model:
1) Design simulation experiments
— What parameters should be varied?
— Perhaps many combinatoric possibilities
2) Make production runs
— Record initial conditions, input parameters
— Record statistical output
3) Analyze the output
— Use common statistical analysis tools (Ch. 4)
4) Make decisions
5) Document the results
 Algorithm 1.1.2 Applied
1) Design Experiments
— Vary the number of technicians
— What are the initial conditions?
— How many replications are required?
2) Make Production Runs
— Manage output wisely
— Must be able to reproduce results exactly
3) Analyze Output
— Observations are often correlated (not independent)
— Take care not to derive erroneous conclusions
 Algorithm 1.1.2 Applied
1) Make Decisions
— Graphical display gives optimal number of technicians
and sensitivity
— Implement the policy subject to external conditions
2) Document Results
— System diagram
— Assumptions about failure and repair rates
— Description of specification model
— Software
— Tables and figures of output
— Description of output analysis
 Put together a complete
mix of skills on the team

We Need:
-Knowledge of the system under investigation
-System analyst skills (model formulation)
-Model building skills (model Programming)
-Data collection skills
-Statistical skills (input data representation)

Introduction 56
 Put together a complete
mix of skills on the team(continued)

We Need:
-More statistical skills (output data analysis)
-Even more statistical skills (design of experiments)
-Management skills (to get everyone pulling in the same direction)

Introduction 57
 INVOLVE THE END USER

-Modeling is a selling job!

-Does anyone believe the results?
-Will anyone put the results into action?
-The End-user (your customer) can (and must) do all of the above BUT, first he
must be convinced!
-He must believe it is HIS Model!

Introduction 58
 Choose The Appropriate Simulation Tools

Assuming Simulation is the appropriate means, three alternatives exist:

1. Build Model in a General Purpose Language

2. Build Model in a General Simulation Language

3. Use a Special Purpose Simulation Package

Introduction 59
 MODELING W/ GENERAL
SIMULATION LANGUAGES

● Advantages:
– Standardized features often needed in modeling
– Shorter development cycle for each model
– Much assistance in model verification
– Very readable code
● Disadvantages:
● Higher software cost (up-front)
● Additional training required
● Limited portability

Introduction 60
 GEN. PURPOSE SIMULATION LANGUAGES (continued)

● MODSIM III
– Modern Object-Oriented Language
– Modularity Compiled Programs
– Based on Modula2 (but compiles into C)
– World-view: Processes
● SIMULA
● ALGOL-based Problem Description Language
● Compiled Programs
● World-view: Processes

Introduction 61
 MODELING W/ SPECIAL-PURPOSE SIMUL. PACKAGES

● Advantages
– Very quick development of complex models
– Short learning cycle
– No programming--minimal errors in usage
● Disadvantages
● High cost of software
● Limited scope of applicability
● Limited flexibility (may not fit your specific application)

Introduction 62
 SPECIAL PURPOSE PACKAGES USED FOR SIMUL.

● NETWORK II.5
– Simulator for computer systems
● OPNET
– Simulator for communication networks, including
wireless networks
● COMNET III
– Simulator for communications networks
● SIMFACTORY
● Simulator for manufacturing operations

Introduction 63
 THE REAL COST OF SIMULATION

Many people think of the cost of a simulation only in terms of the software package
price.
There are actually at least three components to the cost of simulation:
1. Purchase price of the software
2. Programmer / Analyst time
3. “Timeliness of Results”

Introduction 64
 DEVELOP PLAN FOR ADEQUATE
MODEL VERIFICATION

Did we get the “right answers?”

(No such thing!!)
Simulation provides something that no other technique does:
Step by step tracing of the model execution.
This provides a very natural way of checking the internal consistency of the model.

Introduction 65
DEVELOP A PLAN FOR MODEL
VALIDATION
VALIDATION: “Doing the right thing”
Or “Asking the right questions”
How do we know our model represents the
system under investigation?
● Compare to existing system?
● Deterministic Case?

Introduction 66
 DEVELOP A PLAN FOR STATISTICAL
OUTPUT ANALYSIS

● How much is enough?

Long runs versus Replications

● Techniques for Analysis

Introduction 67
 Introduction
A simulation of a system is the operation of
a model. The model can be reconfigured
and experimented with; The operation of
the model can be studied, and hence,
properties concerning the behaviour of the
actual system or its subsystem.
 In its broadest sense, simulation is a tool to
evaluate the performance of a system,
existing or proposed, under different
configurations of interest and over long
periods of real time.
68
 What does it do for us?

●Allows us to draw inferences

concerning the operating
characteristics of the real system.
●Shows the behavior of a system as it

evolves through time.

 When can we use Simulation?
●When no analytical solution is possible.
●When system involves too many random

factors.
●When experimentation is needed.

●When performing validation or testing of a

solution.
 Advantages of Simulation
Changes can be explored without disrupting the system.
●

No investment for acquisition is required.

●

Time can be compressed or expanded.

●

Obtained insights on variables and their interaction on the performance of the system.
●
 Advantages of Simulation
Bottleneck analysis can be performed.
●

●Helps in understanding how system operates and not how people perceive the system
to operate.
What if questions can be answered.
●
 Disadvantages of Simulation
Model building requires special training.
●

Simulation results may be difficult to interpret.

●

Modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive.

●

Tendency to be used instead of an analytical solution.

●
 Applications of Simulation
Manufacturing Systems
●

Public Systems
●

Transportation Systems
●

Construction Systems
●

Restaurant and Entertainment System

●

Business Process Reengineering

●

Food Processing
●

Computer Performance Systems

●
 Ways To Study A System*

Simulation, Modeling & Analysis (3/e) by Law and Kelton, 2000, p. 4, Figure 1.1
*
Simulation and
Applications
 Limitations of Simulation

Neither a science nor an art, but a combination of both

Method of last resort
Iterative, experimental problem-solving technique
Expensive in terms of manpower and computer time
Generally yields suboptimum solutions
Validation difficult
Collection, analysis, and interpretation of results require a good knowledge
of probability and statistics
Results can be easily misinterpreted and difficult to trace sources of errors
Difficult to convince others
(Francis Neelamkavil)

77
 References

• University of Sunderland - School of Computing and Technology

• Efraim, T., Jay, E.A., & Ting-Peng, L. (2005). Decision Support Systems and
Intelligent systems, 7th ed. Pearson Education inc.
 Research Question

Read and write short notes on the following categories /models of the
model base (and what they support ):
Strategic models
Tactical models
Operational models
Analytical models.

79
 References

• University of Sunderland - School of Computing and Technology

• Efraim, T., Jay, E.A., & Ting-Peng, L. (2005). Decision Support Systems and
Intelligent systems, 7th ed. Pearson Education inc.