INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS AND OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT

6 : FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

Dr. Ravi Mahendra Gor

Associate Dean
ICFAI Business School
ICFAI HOuse,
Nr. GNFC INFO Tower
S. G. Road
Bodakdev
Ahmedabad-380054
Ph.: 079-26858632 (O); 079-26464029 (R); 09825323243 (M)
E-mail: ravigor@hotmail.com

Contents
Introduction
Some applications of forecasting
Defining forecasting
General steps in the forecasting process
Qualitative techniques in forecasting
Time series methods
The Naive Methods
Simple Moving Average Method
Weighted Moving Average
Exponential Smoothing
Evaluating the forecast accuracy
Trend Projections
Linear Regression Analysis
Least Squares Method for Linear Regression
Decomposition of the time series
Selecting A Suitable Forecasting Method
More on Forecast Errors
Review Exercise
 CHAPTER 6

FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

6.1 Introduction:

Every manager would like to know exact nature of future events to accordingly take action or plan his action
when sufficient time is in hand to implement the plan. The effectiveness of his plan depends upon the level of
accuracy with which future events are known to him. But every manager plans for future irrespective of the fact
whether future events are exactly known or not. That implies, he does try to forecast future to the best of his
Ability, Judgment and Experience.

Virtually all management decisions depend on forecasts. Managers study sales forecasts, for example, to take
decisions on working capital needs, the size of the work force, inventory levels, the scheduling of production
runs, the location of facilities, the amount of advertising and sales promotion, the need to change prices, and
many other problems.

For our purpose forecasting can be defined as attempting to predict the future by using qualitative or quantitative
methods. In an informal way, forecasting is an integral part of all human activity, but from the business point of
view increasing attention is being given to formal forecasting systems which are continually being refined.
Some forecasting systems involve very advanced statistical techniques beyond the scope of this book, so are not
included.

All forecasting methodologies can be divided into three broad headings i.e. forecasts based on:

What people have done What people What people do

Examples: say examples: examples:
Time Series Analysis Surveys Testing Marketing

Regression Analysis Questionnaires Reaction tests

The data from past activities are cheapest to collect but may be outdated and past behavior is not necessarily
indicative of future behavior.
Data derived from surveys are more expensive to obtain and needs critical appraisal - intentions
as expressed in surveys and questionnaires are not always translated into action.
Finally, the data derived from recording what people actually do are the most reliable but also the most
expensive and occasionally it is not feasible for the data to be obtained.
Forecasting is a process of estimating a future event by casting forward past data. The past data are
systematically combined in a predetermined way to obtain the estimate of the future. Prediction is a process of
estimating a future event based on subjective considerations other than just past data; these subjective
considerations need not be combined in a predetermined way.
Thus forecast is an estimate of future values of certain specified indicators relating to a decisional/planning
situation, In some situations forecast regarding single indicator is sufficient, where as, in some other situations

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forecast regarding several indicators is necessary. The number of indicators and the degree of detail required in
the forecast depends on the intended use of the forecast.
There are two basic reasons for the need for forecast in any field.
1. Purpose – Any action devised in the PRESENT to take care of some contingency accruing out of a
situation or set of conditions set in future. These future conditions offer a purpose / target to be achieved so
as to take advantage of or to minimize the impact of (if the foreseen conditions are adverse in nature) these
future conditions.
2. Time – To prepare plan, to organize resources for its implementation, to implement; and complete the plan;
all these need time as a resource. Some situations need very little time, some other situations need several
years of time. Therefore, if future forecast is available in advance, appropriate actions can be planned and
implemented ‘intime’.
6.2 Some Applications of Forecasting:

Forecasts are vital to every business organization and for every significant management decision.
We now will discuss some areas in which forecasting is widely used.
Sales Forecasting
Any company in selling goods needs to forecast the demand for those goods. Manufactures need to know how much
to produce. Wholesalers and retailers need to know now much to stock. Substantially understanding demand is
likely to lead to many lost sales, unhappy customers, and perhaps allowing the competition to gain the upper hand in
the marketplace. On the other hand, significantly overestimating demand also is very costly due to (1) excessive
inventory costs, (2) forced price reductions, (3) unneeded production or storage capacity, and (4) lost opportunities
to market more profitable goods. Successful marketing and production managers understand very well the
importance of obtaining good sales forecasts.
For the production managers these sales forecast are essential to help trigger the forecast for production which in
turn triggers the forecasting of the raw materials needed for production.
Forecasting the need for raw materials and spare parts
Although effective sales forecasting is a key for virtually any company, some organizations must rely on other types
of forecasts as well. A prime example involves forecasts of the need for raw materials and spare parts.
Many companies need to maintain an inventory of spare parts to enable them to quickly repair either own equipment
or their products sold or leased to customers.
Forecasting Economic Trends
With the possible exception of sales forecasting, the most extensive forecasting effort is devoted to forecasting
economic trends on a regional, national, or even international level.
Forecasting Staffing Needs
For economically developed countries there is a shifting emphasis from manufacturing to services. Goods are being
produced outside the country (where labor is chapter) and then imported. At the same time, an increasing number of
business firms are specializing in providing a service of some kind (e.g., travel, tourism, entertainment, legal aid,
health services, financial, educational, design, maintenance, etc.). For such a company forecasting “sales” becomes
forecasting the demand for services, which then translates into forecasting staffing needs to provide those services.

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Forecasting in education environment
A good education institute typically plans its activities and areas concentration for the coming years based on the
forecasted demand for its different activities. The institute may come out with a forecast that the future requirements
of its students who graduate may be more in particular sector. This may call for the reorientation of the syllabus and
faculty, development of suitable teaching materials/cases, recruitment of new faculty with specific sector-oriented
background, experience and teaching skills. Alternatively, the management may decide that the future is more
secure with the conventional areas of operation and it may continue with the original syllabus, etc.
Forecasting in a rural setting
Cooperative milk producers’, union operates in a certain district. The products it manufactures, the production
capacities it creates, the manpower it recruits, and many more decisions are closely linked with the forecasts of the
milk it may procure and the different milk products it may see. Milk being a product which has a ready market, is
not difficult to sell. Thus demand forecasting for products may not be a very dominant issue for the organization.
However, the forecast of milk procurement is a crucial issue as raw milk is a highly perishable commodity and
building up of adequate processing capacity is important for the dairy. The milk procurement forecast also forms an
important input to the production planning process which includes making decisions on what to produce, how much
and when to produce.
Ministry of Petroleum
The officials of this crucial ministry have to make decisions on the quantum of purchase to be made for various
types of crude oils and petroleum products from different sources across the oil-exporting nations for the next few
years. They also have to decide as to how much money has to be spent on development of indigenous sources. These
decisions involve/need information on the future demand of different types of petroleum products and the likely
change in the prices and the availability of crude oil and petroleum products in the country and the oil-exporting
nations. This takes us back to the filed of forecasting.
Department of Technology
The top officials of this department want to make decisions on the type of information technology to recommend to
the union government for the next decade. But they are not very clear on the directions which will be taken by this
year rapidly changing field. They decided to entrust this task to the information system group of a national
management institute. The team leader decided to forecast the changing technology in this area with the help of a
team of information technology experts throughout the country. This is again a forecasting problem although of a
much different type. This field of forecasting is known as technological forecasting.
Forecasting is the basis of corporate long-run planning. In the functional areas of finance and accounting,
forecasts provide the basis for budgetary planning and cost control. Marketing relies on sales forecasting to plan new
products, compensate sales personnel, and make other key decisions. Productions and operations personnel use
forecasts to make periodic decisions involving process selection, capacity planning, and facility layout, as well as
for continual decisions about production planning, scheduling, and inventory.
As we have observed in the aforementioned examples, forecasting forms an important input in many business and
social science-related situations.

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6.3 Defining Forecasting:
A forecast is an estimate of a future event achieved by systematically combining and casting forward in
predetermined way data about the past. It is simply a statement about the future. It is clear that we must distinguish
between forecast per se and good forecasts. Good forecast can be quite valuable and would be worth a great deal.
Long-run planning decisions require consideration of many factors: general economic conditions, industry trends,
probable competitor’s actions, overall political climate, and so on.
Forecasts are possible only when a history of data exists. An established TV manufacturer can use past data
to forecast the number of picture screens required for next week’s TV assembly schedule. But suppose a
manufacturer offers a new refrigerator or a new car, he cannot depend on past data. He cannot forecast, but has to
predict. For prediction, good subjective estimates can be based on the manager’s skill experience, and judgment.
One has to remember that a forecasting technique requires statistical and management science techniques.
In general, when business people speak of forecasts, they usually mean some combination of both
forecasting and prediction. Forecasts are often classified according to time period and use. In general, short-term (up
to one year) forecasts guide current operations. Medium-term (one to three years) and long-term (over five years)
forecasts support strategic and competitive decisions.
Bear in mind that a perfect forecast is usually impossible. Too many factors in the business environment
cannot be predicted with certainty. Therefore, rather than search for the perfect forecast, it is far more important to
establish the practice of continual review of forecasts and to learn to live with inaccurate forecasts. This is not to say
that we should not try to improve the forecasting model or methodology, but that we should try to find and use the
best forecasting method available, within reason. Because forecasts deal with past data, our forecasts will be less
reliable the further into the future we predict. That means forecast accuracy decreases as time horizon increases. The
accuracy of the forecast and its costs are interrelated. In general, the higher the need for accuracy translates to higher
costs of developing forecasting models. So how much money and manpower is budgeted for forecasting? What
possible benefits are accrued from accrued from accurate forecasting? What are possible cost of inaccurate
forecasting? The best forecast are not necessarily the most accurate or the least costly. Factors as purpose and data
availability play important role in determining the desired accuracy of forecast.
When forecasting, a good strategy is to use two or three methods and look at them for the commonsense
view. Will expected changes in the general economy affect the forecast? Are there changes in industrial and private
consumer behaviors? Will there be a shortage of essential complementary items? Continual review and updating in
light of new data are basic to successful forecasting. In this chapter we look at qualitative and quantitative
forecasting and concentrate primarily on several quantitative time series techniques.

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The following figure illustrates various methods of forecasting.

Forecasting Techniques

Qualitative Time Series Causal

Methods Methods Methods

Grass Naïve Regression

Roots Methods Analysis

Market Moving
Research Average

Panel Exponential
Consensus Smoothing

Historical Trend
Analogy Projections

Delphi
Method

Fig. 6.1 Different Forecasting Methods

6.4 General Steps In The Forecasting Process

The general steps in the forecasting process are as follows:
1) Identify the general need
2) Select the Period (Time Horizon) of Forecast
3) Select Forecast Model to be used: For this, knowledge of various forecasting models, in which
situations these are applicable, how reliable each one of them is; what type of data is required. On these
considerations; one or more models can be selected.
4) Data Collection: With reference to various indicators identified-collect data from various appropriate
sources-data which is compatible with the model(s) selected in step(3). Data should also go back that
much in past, which meets the requirements of the model.
5) Prepare forecast: Apply the model using the data collected and calculate the value of the forecast.
6) Evaluate: The forecast obtained through any of the model should not be used, as it is, blindly. It should
be evaluated in terms of ‘confidence interval’ – usually all good forecast models have methods of
calculating upper value and the lower value within which the given forecast is expected to remain with

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 certain specified level of probability. It can also be evaluated from logical point of view whether the
value obtained is logically feasible? It can also be evaluated against some related variable or
phenomenon. Thus, it is possible, some times advisable to modify the statistically forecasted’ value
based on evaluation.
6.5 Qualitative Techniques In Forecasting
Grass Roots
Grass roots forecasting builds the forecast by adding successively from the bottom. The assumption here is that
the person closest to the customer or end use of the product knows its future needs best. Though this is not
always true, in many instances it is a valid assumption, and it is the basis for this method.
Forecasts at this bottom level are summed and given to the next higher level. This is usually a district
warehouse, which then adds in safely stocks and any effects of ordering quantity sizes. This amount is then fed
to the next level, which may be a regional warehouse. The procedure repeat until it becomes an input at the top
level, which, in the case of a manufacturing firm, would be the input to the production system.

Market Research:
Firms often hire outside companies that specialize in market research to conduct this type of forecasting. You
may have been involved in market surveys through a marketing class. Certainly you have not escaped telephone
calls asking you about product preferences, your income, habits, and so on.
Market research is used mostly for product research in the sense of looking for new product ideas, likes and
dislikes about existing products, which competitive products within a particular class are preferred, and so on.
Again, the data collection methods are primarily surveys and interviews.

Panel Consensus:
In a panel consensus, the idea that two heads are better than one is extrapolated to the idea that a panel of people
from a variety of positions can develop a more reliable forecast than a narrower group. Panel forecasts are
developed through open meetings with free exchange of ideas form all levels of management and individuals.
The difficulty with this open style is that lower employee levels are intimidated by higher levels of management.
For example, a salesperson in a particular product line may have a good estimate of future product demand but
may not speak up to refute a much different estimate given by the vice president of marketing. The Delphi
technique (which we discuss shortly) was developed to try to correct this impairment to free exchange.
When decisions in forecasting are at a broader, higher level (as when introducing a new product line or
concerning strategic product decisions such as new marketing areas) the term executive judgment is generally
used. The term is self-explanatory: a higher level of management is involved.

Historical Analogy:
The historical analogy method is used for forecasting the demand for a product or service under the
circumstances that no past demand data are available. This may specially be true if the product happens to be
new for the organization. However, the organization may have marketed product(s) earlier which may be similar
in some features to the new product. In such circumstances, the marketing personnel use the historical analogy
between the two products and derive the demand for the new product using the historical data of the earlier

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product. The limitations of this method are quite apparent. They include the questionable assumption of the
similarity of demand behaviors, the changed marketing conditions, and the impact of the substitutability factor
on the demand.
Delphi Method:
As we mentioned under panel consensus, a statement or opinion of a higher-level person will likely be weighted
more than that of a lower-level person. The worst case in where lower level people feel threatened and do not
contribute their true beliefs. To prevent this problem, the Delphi method conceals the identity of the individuals
participating in the study. Everyone has the same weight. A moderator creates a questionnaire and distributes it
to participants. Their responses are summed and given back to the entire group along with a new set of
questions.
The Delphi method was developed by the Rand Corporation in the 1950s. The step-by-step procedure is
1) Choose the experts to participate. There should be a variety of knowledgeable people in different areas.
2) Through a questionnaire (or e-mail), obtain forecasts (and any premises or qualification captions for the
forecasts) from all participants.
3) Summarize the results and redistribute them to the participants along with appropriate new questions.
4) Summarize again, refining forecasts and conditions, and again develop new questions.
5) Repeat Step 4 if necessary. Distribute the final results to all participants.
The Delphi technique can usually achieve satisfactory results in three rounds. The time required is a function of
the number of participants, how much work is involved for them to develop their forecasts, and their speed in
responding.
We now discuss the quantitative methods of forecasting
6.6 Time-Series Methods
In many forecasting situations enough historical consumption data are available. The data may relate to the past
periodic sales of products, demands placed on services like transportation, electricity and telephones. There are
available to the forecaster a large number of methods, popularly known as the time series methods, which carry
out a statistical analysis of past data to develop forecasts for the future. The underlying assumption here is that
past relationships will continue to hold in the future. The different methods differ primarily in the manner in
which the past values are related to the forecasted ones.
A time series refers to the past recorded values of the variables under consideration. The values of the variables
under consideration in a time-series are measured at specified intervals of time. These intervals may be minutes,
hours, days, weeks, months, etc. In the analysis of a time series the following four time-related factors are
important.

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1) Trends: These relate to the long-term persistent movements/tendencies/changes in data like price increases,
population growth, and decline in market shares. An example of a decreasing linear trend is shown in Fig.
6.2

Market Market
share share

Time Time

Market Market
share share

Time Time
Fig. 6.2

(2) Seasonal variations: There could be periodic, repetitive variations in time-series which occur because of
buying or consuming patterns and social habits, during different times of a year. The demand for products like
soft drinks, woolens and refrigerators, also exhibits seasonal variations. An illustration of seasonal variations is
provided in Fig. 6.3

Sales
Sales

Time Time
Fig. 6.3

(3) Cyclical variations: These refer to the variations in time series which arise out of the phenomenon of
business cycles. The business cycle refers to the periods of expansion followed by periods of contraction.

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 The period of a business cycle may vary from one year to thirty years. The duration and the level of
resulting demand variation due to business cycles are quite difficult to predict.
(4) Random or irregular variations: These refer to the erratic fluctuations in the data which cannot be
attributed to the trend, seasonal or cyclical factors. In many cases, the root cause of these variations can be
isolated only after a detailed analysis of the data and the accompanying explanations, if any. Such variations
can be due to a wide variety of factors like sudden weather changes, strike or a communal clash. Since these
are truly random in nature, their future occurrence and the resulting impact on demand are difficult to
predict. The effect of these events can be eliminated by smoothing the time series data. A graphical example
of the random variations is given in Fig. 6.4.

Demand

Time

Fig. 6.4

The historical time series, as obtained from the past records, contains all the four factors described earlier. One
of the major tasks is to isolate each of the components, as elegantly as possible. This process of desegregating
the time series is called decomposition. The main objective here is to isolate the trend in time series by
eliminating the other components. The trend line can then be used for projecting into the future. The effect of
the other components on the forecast can be brought about by adding the corresponding cyclical, seasonal and
irregular variations.
In most short-term forecasting situations the elimination of the cyclical component is not attempted. Also, it is
assumed that the irregular variations are small and tend to cancel each other out over time. Thus, the major
objective, in most cases, is to seek the removal of seasonal variations from the time series. This process is
known as deseasonalization of the time series data.
There are a number of time-series-based methods. Not all of them involve explicit decomposition of the data.
The methods extend from mathematically very simple to fairly complicated ones.
Let us also see some of the time series models are based on the trend lines of the data.
The constant-level models assume no trend at all in the data. The time series is assumed to have a relatively
constant mean. The forecast for any period in the future is a horizontal line.
Linear trend models forecast a straight-line trend for any period in the future. Refer Fig. 6.2
Exponential trends forecast that the amount of growth will increase continuously. At long horizons, these trends
become unrealistic. Thus models with a damped trend have been developed for longer-range forecasting. The
amount of trend extrapolated declines each period in a damped trend model. Eventually, the trend dies out and
the forecasts become a horizontal line. Refer Fig 6.2
The additive seasonal pattern assumes that the seasonal fluctuations are of constant size.

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The multiplicative pattern assumes that the seasonal fluctuations are proportional to the data. As the trend
increases, the seasonal fluctuations get larger. Refer Fig 6.3
6.6.1 The Naive Methods

The forecasting methods covered under this category are mathematically very simple. The simplest of them uses
the most recently observed value in the time series as the forecast for the next period. Effectively, this implies
that all prior observations are not considered. Another method of this type is the ‘free-hand projection method’.
This includes the plotting of the data series on a graph paper and fitting a free-hand curve to it. This curve is
extended into the future for deriving the forecasts. The ‘semi-average projection method’ is another naive
method. Here, the time-series is divided into two equal halves, averages calculated for both, and a line drawn
connecting the two semi averages. This line is projected into the future and the forecasts are developed.
Illustration 6.1: Consider the demand data for 8 years as given. Use these data for forecasting the demand for
the year 1991 using the three naïve methods described earlier.
Year Actual sales

1983 100

1984 105

1985 103

1986 107

1987 109

1988 110

1989 115

1990 117

Solution: The forecasted demand for 1991, using the last period method = actual sales in 1990 = 117 units.
The forecasted demand for 1991, using the free-hand projection method = 119 units. (Please check the results
using a graph papers!)

The semi-averages for this problem will be calculated for the periods 1983-86 and 1987-90. The resultant semi-
averages are 103.75 and 112.75. A straight line joining these points would lead to a forecast for the year 1991.
The value of this forecast will be = 120 units

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 Sales

120

115

110

105

100

Year
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91

Fig. 6.5

6.6.2 Simple Moving Average Method

When demand for a product is neither growing nor declining rapidly, and if it does not have seasonal
characteristics, a moving average can be useful can be useful in removing the random fluctuations for
forecasting. Although moving averages are frequently centered, it is more convenient to use past data to predict
the following period directly. To illustrate, a centered five-month average of January, February, March, April
and May gives an average centered on March. However, all five months of data must already exist. If our
objective is to forecast for June, we must project our moving average- by some means- from March to June. If
the average is not centered but is at forward end, we can forecast more easily, through we may lose some
accuracy. Thus, if we want to forecast June with a five-month moving average, we can take the average of
January, February, March, April and May. When June passes, the forecast for July would be the average of
February, March, April, May and June.
Although it is important to select the best period for the moving average, there are several conflicting effects of
different period lengths. The longer the moving average period, the more the random elements are smoothed
(which may be desirable in many cases). But if there is a trend in the data-either increasing or decreasing-the
moving average has the adverse characteristic of lagging the trend. Therefore, while a shorter time span
produces more oscillation, there is a closer following of the trend. Conversely, a longer time span gives a
smoother response but lags the trend.
The formula for a simple moving average is

+A +A + ...... + A
F = t −1 t−2 t −3 t −n
A
t n
where, Ft = Forecast for the coming period, n = Number of period to be averaged
and At-1, At-2, At-3 and so on are the actual occurrences in the in the past period, two periods ago, three periods
ago and so on respectively.

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Illustration 6.2: The data in the first two columns of the following table depict the sales of a company. The first
two columns show the month and the sales.
The forecasts based on 3, 6 and 12 month moving average and shown in the next three columns.
The 3 month moving average of a month is the average of sales of the preceding three months. The reader is
asked to verify the calculations himself.

Past sales of generators Forecasts produced by

Month Actual units 3 month moving average 6 month 12 month
sold moving moving
average average
January 450
February 440
March 460
April 410 (450+440+460)/3 = 450
May 380 (440+460+410)/3 = 437
June 400 (460+410+380)/3 = 417
July 370 397 423
August 360 383 410
September 410 377 397
October 450 380 388
November 470 407 395
December 490 443 410
January 460 470 425 424

The 6 month moving average is given by the average of the preceding 6 months actual sales.
For the month of July it is calculated as
July’s forecast = ( Sum of the actual sales from January to June ) / 6
= ( 450 + 440 + 460 + 410 + 380 + 400 ) / 6
= 423 ( rounded )
For the forecast of January by the 12 month moving average we sum up the actual sales from January to
December of the preceding year and divide it by 12.
Note:

1. A moving average can be used as a forecast as shown above but when graphing moving averages it is
important to realize, that being averages, they must be plotted at the mid point of the period to which
they relate.
2. Twelve-monthly moving averages or moving annual totals form part of a commonly used diagram,
called the Z chart. It is called a Z chart because the completed diagram is shaped like a Z. The top part
of the Z is formed by the moving annual total, the bottom part by the individual monthly figures and
the sloping line by the cumulative monthly figures.

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Illustration 6.3: Using the data given in the Illustration 1 forecast the demand for the period 1987 to 1991 using

a. 3- year moving average and

b. 5- year moving average
If we want to check the error in our forecast as Error = Actual observed value – Forecasted value

find which one gives a lower error in the forecast.

Year Demand Three year moving Five year moving

average average
forecast error forecast error
1983 100 - - - -
1984 105 - - - -
1985 103 - - - -
1986 107 102.6 4.4 - -
1987 109 105.0 4.0 - -
1988 110 106.3 3.7 104.8 5.2
1989 115 108.6 6.4 106.8 8.2
1990 117 111.3 5.7 108.8 8.2
1991 - 114.0 - 111.6 -

Here we observe that the forecast always lags behind the actual values. The lag is greater for the 5-year moving
average based forecasts.
Characteristics of moving averages

a. The different moving averages produce different forecasts.

b. The greater the number of periods in the moving average, the greater the smoothing effect.
c. If the underlying trend of the past data is thought to be fairly constant with substantial randomness,
then a greater number of periods should be chosen.
d. Alternatively, if there is though to be some change in the underlying state of the data, more
responsiveness is needed, therefore fewer periods should be included in the moving average.
Limitations of moving averages

a. Equal weighting is given to each of the values used in the moving average calculation,
whereas it is reasonable to suppose that the most recent data is more relevant to current
conditions.
b. An n period moving average requires the storage of n – 1 values to which is added the
latest observation. This may not seem much of a limitation when only a few items are
considered, but it becomes a significant factor when , for example, a company carries
25,000 stock items each of which requires a moving average calculation involving say 6
months usage data to be recorded.

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 c. The moving average calculation takes no account of data outside the period of average, so
full use is not made of all the data available.
d. The use of the unadjusted moving average as a forecast can cause misleading results
when there is an underlying seasonal variation.
6.6.3 Weighted Moving Average

Whereas the simple moving average gives equal weight to each component of the moving average database, a
weighted moving average allows any weights to be placed on each element, providing, of course, that the sum of
all weights equals 1. For example, a department store may find that in a four-month period, the best forecast is
derived by using 40 percent of the actual sales for the most recent month, 30 percent of two months ago, 20
percent of three months ago, and 10 percent of four months ago. If actual sales experience was

Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5

100 90 105 95 ?

the forecast for month 5 would be

F5 = 0.40(95) + 0.30(105) + 0.20(90) + 0.10(100)
= 38 + 31.5+ 18+ 10
= 97.5
The formula for the weighted moving average is

F =w A +w A +w A + ........ + w A
t 1 t −1 2 t −2 3 t −3 n t−n
Where Ft = Forecast for the coming period, n = the total number of periods in the forecast.

wi = the weight to be given to the actual occurrence for the period t-i
Ai = the actual occurrence for the period t-i
Although many periods may be ignored (that is, their weights are zero) and the weighting scheme may be in any
order (for example, more distant data may have greater weights than more recent data), the sum of all the
weights must equal 1.

∑ w =1
n

i =1
i

Suppose sales for month 5 actually turned out to be 110. Then the forecast for month 6 would be
F6 = 0.40(110) + 0.30(95) + 0.20(105) + 0.10(90)
= 44 + 28.5 + 21 + 9
= 102.5
Choosing Weights : Experience and trial and error are the simplest ways to choose weights. As a general rule,
the most recent past is the most important indicator of what to expect in the future, and, therefore, it should get
higher weighting. The past month's revenue or plant capacity, for example, would be a better estimate for the
coming month than the revenue or plant capacity of several months ago.

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However, if the data are seasonal, for example, weights should be established accordingly. For example, sales
of air conditioners in May of last year should be weighted more heavily than sales of air conditioners in
December.
The weighted moving average has a definite advantage over the simple moving average in being able to vary the
effects of past data. However, it is more inconvenient and costly to use than the exponential smoothing method,
which we examine next.
6.6.4 Exponential Smoothing

In the previous methods of forecasting (simple and weighted moving average), the major drawback is the need
to continually carry a large amount of historical data. (This is also true for regression analysis techniques, which
we soon will cover) As each new piece of data is added in these methods, the oldest observation is dropped, and
the new forecast is calculated. In many applications (perhaps in most), the most recent occurrences are more
indicative of the future than those in the more distant past. If this premise is valid – “that the importance of data
diminishes as the past becomes more distant” - then exponential smoothing may be the most logical and easiest
method to use.
The reason this is called exponential smoothing is that each increment in the past is decreased by (1-α). If α is
0.05 for example, weights for various period would be as follows (α is defined below):
Weighting at α = 0.05
= α (1- α)
0
Most recent weighting 0.0500
= α (1- α)
1
Data one time period older 0.0475
Data two time periods older = α (1- α)
2
0.0451
Data three time periods older = α (1- α)
3
0.0429
Therefore, the exponents 0, 1, 2, 3 and so on give it its name.
The method involves the automatic weighting of past data with weights that decrease exponentially with time,
i.e. the most current values receive a decreasing weighting.
The exponential smoothing technique is a weighted moving average system and the underlying principle is that
the

New Forecast = Old Forecast + a proportion of the forecast error

The simplest formula is
New forecast = Old forecast + α (Latest Observation – Old Forecast)
where α (alpha) is the smoothing constant.
Or more mathematically,
Ft = Ft-1 + α (At-1 – Ft-1)
i.e Ft = α At-1 + (1- α) Ft-1
Where
Ft = The exponentially smoothed forecast for period t

Ft-1 = The exponentially smoothed forecast made for the prior period
At-1 = The actual demand in the prior period
α = The desired response rate, or smoothing constant

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The smoothing constant

The value of α can be between 0 and 1. The higher value of α (i.e. the nearer to 1), the more sensitive the
forecast becomes to current conditions, whereas the lower the value, the more stable the forecast will be, i.e. it
will react less sensitively to current conditions. An approximate equivalent of alpha values to the number of
periods’ moving average is given below:
α value Approximate periods in equivalent
Moving average
0.1 19
0.25 7
0.33 5
0.5 3

The total of the weights of observations contributing to the new forecast is 1 and the weight reduces
exponentially progressively from the alpha value for the latest observation to smaller value for the older
observations. For example, if the alpha value was 0.3 and June’s sales were being forecast, then June’s forecast
is produced from averaging past sales weighted as follows.
0.3 (May’s Sales) + 0.21 (April’s Sales) + 0.147 (March’s Sales)

+ 0.1029 (February Sales) + 0.072 (January Sales)

+ 0.050 (December Sales), etc.

In the above calculation, the reader will observe that α (1- α) = 0.3, α (1- α) = 0.21, α (1- α) = 0.147
0 1 2

α (1- α)3 = 0.1029 and so on.

From this it will be noted that the weightings calculated approach a total of 1.
Exponential smoothing is the most used of all forecasting techniques. It is an integral part of virtually all
computerized forecasting programs, and it is widely used in ordering inventory in retail firms, wholesale
companies, and service agencies.
Exponential smoothing techniques have become well accepted for six major reasons:

1. Exponential models are surprisingly accurate

2. Formulating an exponential model is relatively easy
3. The user can understand how the model works
4. Little computation is required to use the model
5. Computer storage requirement are small because of the limited use of historical data
6. Tests for accuracy as to how well the model is performing are easy to compute
In the exponential smoothing method, only three pieces of data are needed to forecast the future: the most recent
forecast, the actual demand that occurred for that forecast period and a smoothing constant alpha (α). This
smoothing constant determines the level of smoothing and the speed of reaction to differences between forecasts
and actual occurrences. The value for the constant is determined both by the nature of the product and by the
manager’s sense of what constitutes a good response rate. For example, if a firm produced a standard item with
relatively stable demand, the reaction rate to difference between actual and forecast demand would tend to be

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small, perhaps just 5 or 10 percentage points. However, if the firm were experiencing growth, it would be
desirable to have a higher reaction rate, perhaps 15 to 30 percentage points, to give greater importance to recent
growth experience. The more rapid the growth, the higher the reaction rate should be. Sometimes users of the
simple moving average switch to exponential smoothing but like to keep the forecasts about the same as the
simple moving average. In this case, α is approximated by 2 ÷ (n+1), where n is the number of time periods.
To demonstrate the method once again, assume that the long-run demand for the product under study is
relatively stable and a smoothing constant (α) of 0.05 is considered appropriate. If the exponential method were
used as a continuing policy, forecast would have been made for last month. Assume that last month’s forecast
(Ft-1) was 1,050 units. If 1,000 actually were demanded, rather than 1,050, the forecast for this month would be

Ft =Ft-1 + a (At-1 – Ft-1)

= 1,050 + 0.05 (1,000 – 1,050)
= 1,050 + 0.05 (-50)
= 1,047.5 units
Because the smoothing coefficient is small, the reaction of the new forecast to an error of 50 units is to decrease
the next month’s forecast by only 2.5 units.
Illustration 6.4: The data are given in the first two columns and the forecasts have been prepared using the
values of α as 0.2 and 0.8.
Month Actual units sold Exponential Forecasts
α = 0.2 α = 0.8
January 450 - -
February 440 450 ** 450**
March 460 450 + 0.2 ( 440-450) 450 + 0.8(440-450)
= 448 =442
April 410 448 + 0.2 ( 460-448) 442 + 0.8(460-442)
= 450.4 =456.4
May 380 450.4 + 0.2 (410 – 450.4) 456.4 + 0.8(410-456.4)
= 442.32 =419.28
June 400 429.86 387.86
July 370 423.89 397.57
August 360 413.11 375.51
September 410 402.49 363.102
October 450 403.99 400.62
November 470 413.19 440.12
December 490 424.55 464.02
January 460 437.64 484.80

** In the above example, no previous forecast was available. So January sales were used as February’s forecast.
The reader is advised to check the calculations for himself

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It is apparent that the higher α value, 0.8, produces a forecast which adjusts more readily to the most recent
sales.

Extensions of exponential smoothing

The basic principle of exponential smoothing has been outlined above, but to cope with various problem such as
seasonal factors strongly, rising or failing demand, etc many developments to the basic model have been made.
These include double and triple exponential smoothing and correction for trend and delay factors, etc. These are
outside the scope of the present book, so are not covered.
Characteristics of exponential smoothing
a) Greater weight is given to more recent data
b) All past data are incorporated there is no cut-off point as with moving averages
c) Less data needs to be stored than with the longer period moving averages.
d) Like moving averages it is an adaptive forecasting system. That is, it adapts continually as new
data becomes available and so it is frequently incorporated as an integral part of stock control and
production control systems.
e) To cope with various problems (trend, seasonal factors, etc) the basic model needs to be modified
f) Whatever form of exponential smoothing is adopted, changes to the model to suit changing
conditions can simply be made by altering the α value.

g) The selection of the smoothing constant α is done through trial-error by the researcher/analyst. It is

done by testing several values of α (within the range 0 to 1) and selecting one which gives a
forecast with the least error (one can take standard error). It has been found that values in the range
0.1 to 0.3 provide a good starting point.

Illustration 6.5: Data on production of an item for 30 periods are tabulated below. Determine which value
of the smoothing constant (α), out of 0.1 and 0.3, will lead to the best simple exponential smoothing model.
The first 15 values can be used for initialization of the model and then check the error in the forecast as
asked after the table.

Month Production Month Production Month Production

(in tones) (in tones) (in tones)
1 30.50 11 25.70 21 27.60
2 28.80 12 30.90 22 29.90
3 31.50 13 31.50 23 30.20
4 29.90 14 28.10 24 35.50
5 31.40 15 30.80 25 30.80
6 33.50 16 29.50 26 28.80
7 25.70 17 29.80 27 30.80
8 32.10 18 30.00 28 32.20
9 29.10 19 29.90 29 31.20
10 30.80 20 31.50 30 29.80
Use the total
squared error or the mean squared error as the basis of comparison of the performances.
The total squared error is the sum of the squares of all the error figures for the period selected (here only the last
15 figures because the first 15 periods will initialize the forecast). Their mean is the mean squared error.

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Solution: The following table give the forecasted values for the two different values of the smoothing constant
for the first 15 periods.
Month Production α = 0.1 α = 0.3
( in tonnes) Forecast Forecast
1 30.50 30.50 30.50
2 28.80 30.33 29.90
3 31.50 30.45 30.44
4 29.90 30.39 30.28
5 31.40 30.49 3.62
6 33.50 30.79 31.48
7 25.70 30.28 29.75
8 32.10 30.47 30.45
9 29.10 30.33 30.05
10 30.80 30.38 30.27
11 25.70 29.91 28.90
12 30.90 30.01 29.50
13 31.50 30.16 30.10
14 28.10 29.95 29.50
15 30.80 30.04 29.89

The following table now gives the forecasted values and also checks the errors in the forecast for the last 15
periods.

Month Production α = 0.1 α = 0.3

( in tonnes) Forecast error Squared forecast Squared
error error
16 29.50 30.04 -0.54 0.29 29.89 0.15
17 29.80 29.98 -0.18 0.03 29.77 0.0
18 30.00 29.96 0.04 0.0 29.78 0.05
19 29.90 29.97 -0.07 0.0 29.85 0.0
20 31.50 29.96 1.54 2.37 29.86 2.68
21 27.60 30.12 -2.52 6.33 30.35 7.58
22 29.90 29.86 0.04 0.0 29.53 0.14
23 30.20 29.87 0.33 0.11 29.64 0.31
24 35.50 29.90 5.60 31.35 29.81 32.40
25 30.80 30.46 0.34 0.12 31.52 0.51
26 28.80 30.49 -1.69 2.87 31.30 6.25
27 30.80 30.32 0.48 0.23 30.55 0.06
28 32.20 30.37 1.83 3.34 30.63 2.48
29 31.20 30.56 0.64 0.42 31.10 0.01
30 29.80 30.62 -0.82 0.67 31.13 1.76
TOTAL SQUARED ERROR 48.13 54.41
MEAN SQUARED ERROR =48.13/15 =54.41/15
=3.20 =3.62

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The results here indicate that the forecast accuracy is better for α = 0.1 as compared to 0.3. They also indicate
that a search around 0.1 may lead to a more refined single exponential smoothing model.
6.7 Evaluating the forecast accuracy:
There are many ways to measure forecast accuracy. Some of these measures are the mean absolute forecast
error, called the MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the mean
square error (MSE)
Error = Actual Observed value – Forecasted value
Absolute Percentage Error = (Error / Actual Observed Value) × 100
MAD = the average of the absolute errors
MAPE = the average of the Absolute Percentage Errors
MSE = the average of the squared errors
It is common for two forecasting models to be ranked differently depending on the accuracy measure used. For
example, model A may give a smaller MAD but a larger MSE than model B. Why? Because the MAD gives
equal weight to each error. The MSE gives more weight to large errors because they are squared.
It is up to the manager, not the management scientist to decide which accuracy measure is most appropriate for
his or her application. The MSE is most often used in practice.
Given a preferred accuracy measure, how do we know when our forecasts are good, bad, or indifferent? One
way to answer this question is to compare the accuracy of a given model with that of a benchmark model. A
handy benchmark is the naïve model, which assumes that the value of the series next period will be the same as
it is this period; i.e ,say Ft+1 = Xt
where F is the forecast and X is the observed value. The subscript t is an index for the time period. The current
period is t + 1.
The first step in any forecasting problem should be to use the naive model to compute the benchmark accuracy.
A model which cannot beat the naive model should be discarded. Checking model accuracy against that of the
naive model may seem to be a waste of time, but unless we do so, it is easy to choose an inappropriate
forecasting model.
The mean error measures are computed only for the last half of the data. The forecasting models are
evaluated by dividing the data in to two parts. The first part is used to fit the forecasting model. Fitting consists
of running the model through the first part of the data to get “warmed up.” We call the fitting data the warm-up
sample. The second part of the data is used to test the model and is called the forecasting sample. Accuracy in
the warm-up sample is really irrelevant. Accuracy in the forecasting sample is more important because the
pattern of the data often changes over time. The forecasting sample is used to evaluate how well the model
tracks such changes. This point will be explained in detail in the next few sections.
There are no statistical rules on where to divide the data into warm-up samples and forecasting
samples. There may not be enough data to have two samples. A good rule of thumb is to put at least six non
seasonal data points or two complete seasons of seasonal data in the warm-up sample. If there are fewer data
than this, there is no need to bother with two samples. In a long time series, it is common practice simply to
divide the data in half.

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Illustration 6.6: Data regarding the sales of a particular item in the 12 time periods is given below. The
manager wants to forecast 1 time period ahead in order to plan properly. Determine the forecasts using
(a) Naïve method
(b) 3 period moving average
(c) simple exponential smoothing taking α = 0.1.
Also compute the errors MAD, MAPE, and MSE to check the forecasting accuracy for the last six periods.
Solution:
(a) The following table shows the naïve forecasting model. In this model the next period’s forecast is the
present period’s actual observed value

Time Demand Forecast Absolute Error Absolute Squared

period (T) (D) (F) (E = │D – F │) Percentage Error
error (E2)
(E/D) × 100
1 28 - - - -
2 27 28 - - -
3 33 27 - - -
4 25 33 - - -
5 34 25 - - -
6 33 34 - - -
7 35 33 2 5.7% 4
8 30 35 5 16.7% 25
9 33 30 3 9.1% 9
10 35 33 2 5.7% 4
11 27 35 8 29.6% 64
12 29 27 2 6.9% 4
13 29
Total of time periods 7 to 12 to check 22 73.7% 110
forecasting accuracy
MAD = 22 / 6 = 3.7
MAPE = 73.7% / 6 = 12.3%
MSE = 110 / 6 = 18.3

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(b) The following table shows the 3 period moving average model.

Time period (T) Demand Forecast by 3 Absolute Error

(D) period moving (E)
average
(F)
1 28 - -
2 27 - -
3 33 - -
4 25 (28+27+33)/3 = 4.3
29.3
5 34 (27+33+25)/3 5.7
=28.3
6 33 30.7 2.3
7 35 30.7 4.3
8 30 34.0 4.0
9 33 32.7 0.3
10 35 32.7 2.3
11 27 32.7 5.7
12 29 31.7 2.7
13 - 30.3 -
MSE ( periods 7 to 12 ) =
( 4.32 +42 +0.32 +2.32 + 5.72 +2.72)/6 = 13.3

(c) The simple exponential smoothing model with smoothing constant α = 0.1 is presented below.

Time period Demand Forecast by exponential Absolute

(T) (D) smoothing with Error
α = 0.1 (E)
(F)
1 28 30 2
2 27 30 + 0.1(28-30) = 29.8 2.8
3 33 29.8 + 0.1(27-29.8) = 29.5 3.5
4 25 29.5 + 0.1(33-29.5) = 29.9 4.9
5 34 29.4 4.6
6 33 29.9 3.1
7 35 30.2 4.8
8 30 30.7 0.7
9 33 30.6 2.4
10 35 30.8 4.2
11 27 31.2 4.2
12 29 30.8 1.8
13 - 30.6
MSE ( periods 7 to 12 ) =
( 4.82 +0.72 +2.42 +4.22 + 4.22 +1.82)/6 = 11.3

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 REVIEW EXERCISE

Q. Demand for patient surgery at a hospital has increased steadily in the past few years, as seen in the following
table.
year Outpatient surgeries
performed
1 45
2 50
3 52
4 56
5 58
6

The director of medical services predicted six years ago that demand in year 1 would be 42 surgeries. Using
exponential smoothing with a weight α = 0.20, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. What is the MAD?
Ans: 42.6,44.1,45.7,47.7,49.8, MAD = 7.78

Q. Room registrations in the Park Hotel have been recorded for the past nine years. Management would like to
determine the mathematical trend of guest registration in order to project future occupancy. This estimate would
help the hotel determine whether a future expansion will be needed. Given the following time series data,
develop a regression equation relating registrations to time. Then forecast year 11’s registration. Room
registrations are in thousands.
Year 1 : 17 , Year 2 : 16 , Year 3 : 16 , Year 4 : 21, Year 5 : 20 ,

Year 6 : 20 , year 7 : 23 , Year 8 : 25 , Year 9 : 24

Ans: b = 1.135, a = 14.545 , Y = 14.545 + 1.135 X , Reg. for the 11th year = 27030 guests

Q. Annual sales of Brand X over the last eleven years have been as follows:

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
50 59 46 54 65 51 60 70 56 66 76

You are required to (a) calculate a three year moving average, (b) plot a the series and the trend on the same
graph (c) produce a sales forecast for 2006 stating assumptions, if any.
Q. The following tabulations are actual sales of units for six months and a starting forecast in January.

(a) Calculate forecasts for the remaining five months using simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.2.

(b) Calculate MAD for the forecasts

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 Month Actual Forecast
January 100 80
February 94
March 106
April 80
May 68
June 94
Ans: 84, 86, 90, 88, 84

Q. Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine month period (January through September). The
supervisor wants to test forecasting methods to see which method was better over the period.
Month Actual demand Month Actual demand
January 110 June 180
February 130 July 140
March 150 August 130
April 170 September 140
May 160

(a) Forecast April through September using a three month moving average.
(b) Use simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 to estimate April through September.
(c) Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six month period.
Ans: (a) 130, 150, 160, 170, 160, 150.
(b) 136, 146, 150, 159, 153, 146
(c) Exponential smoothing performed better
Q. A bakery markets cakes through a chain of food stores. It has been experiencing over and under production
because of forecasting errors. The following data are its demand for cakes for the past four weeks. Cakes are
made for the following day; for example, Sundays’s cakes production is for Manday’s sales, Manday’s
production is for Tuesday’s sales and so on. The bakery is closed on Sunday. So Friday’s production must
satisfy demand for both Saturday and Sunday.
4 weeks ago 3 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week
Monday 2200 2400 2300 2400
Tuesday 2000 2100 2200 2200
Wednesday 2300 2400 2300 2500
Thursday 1800 1900 1800 2000
Friday 1900 1800 2100 2000
Saturday
Sunday 2800 2700 3000 2900

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Make a forecast for this week on the following basis:
(a) Daily, using a simple four week moving average.
(b) Daily, using a weighted average of 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, and 0.10 for the past four weeks.
(c) The bakery is also planning its purchases for bread production. If bread demand had been forecast for
last week at 22,000 loaves and only 21,000 loaves were actually demanded, what would the bakery’s
forecast be for this week using exponential smoothing with α = 0.10?
(d) Suppose, with the forecast made in (c) above, this week’s demand actually turns out to be 22,500. What
would the new forecast be for the next week?
Ans: (a) Monday: 2325, Tuesday: 2125, Wednesday: 2375, Thursday: 1875, Friday: 1950, Sat. and Sun: 2850.
(b) Monday: 2350, Tuesday: 2160, Wednesday: 2400, Thursday: 1900, Friday: 1980, Sat. and Sun: 2880
(c) 21900
(d) 21960
Q. Data collected on the yearly demand for 50 pound bags of fertilizer at ABC Fertilizer Company are shown in
the following table. Develop a three year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a
weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other
two years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best?

Year Demand for fertilizer bags Year Demand for fertilizer bags
(in thousands) (in thousands)
1 4 7 7
2 6 8 9
3 4 9 12
4 5 10 14
5 10 11 15
6 8

Ans: weighted average is slightly more accurate

Q. Sales of COLDWAVE air conditioners have grown steadily during the past five years.

Year Sales

1 450
2 495
3 518
4 563
5 584
6 ?

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 (a) The sales manager has predicted that year 1’s sales would be 410 air conditioners. Using exponential

smoothing with a weight α = 0.3, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.

(b) Using smoothing constants 0.6 and 0.9, develop a forecast for the sales.

(c) which of the above three smoothing constants gives the most accurate forecast?

(d) Use a three year moving average forecasting model to forecast the sales.

(e) Using the trend projection method, develop a forecasting model for the sales.

Ans: (a) Year 1: 410, Year 2: 422, Year 3: 443.9, Year 4: 466.1, Year 5: 495, Year 6: 521.8

(c) MAD for α = 0.3 is 74.56, MAD for α = 0.6 is 51.8, MAD for α = 0.9 is 38.1

(e) If the years are coded -2,-1,0,1 and 2 , Y = 522 + 33.6X; next years sales = 622.8

If the years are coded 1,2,3,4 and 5, Y = 421.2 + 33.6X

Q. In this problem, you are to test the validity of your forecasting model. Here are the forecasts for a model you

have been using and the actual demands that occurred.

Week Forecast Actual

1 800 900
2 850 1000
3 950 1050
4 950 900
5 1000 900
6 975 1100

Compute the MAD and tracking signal. Then decide whether the forecasting model you have been using is

giving reasonable results.

Ans: MAD : 104, TS = 3.1. The high TS value indicates the model is unacceptable.

Q. The following table shows predicted product demand using your particular forecasting method along with

the actual demand that occurred.

Forecast Actual

1500 1550

1400 1500

1700 1600

1750 1650

1800 1700

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(a) Compute the tracking signal using the mean absolute deviation and running sum of forecast errors

(b) Discuss whether your forecasting method is giving good predictions.

Ans: (a) MAD = 90, TS = -1.67 (b) Model O.K since TS is -1.67

Q. The following table shows the past two years of quarterly sales information. Assume that there are both trend

and seasonal factors and that the season cycle is one year. Use time series decomposition to forecast quarterly

sales for the next year.

Quarter Sales Quarter Sales

1 160 5 215
2 195 6 240
3 150 7 205
4 140 8 190

Ans: Q 9: 232 , Q 10 : 281 , Q 11 : 239 , Q 12 : 231.

Q. The managers of a company are preparing revenue plans for the last quarter of 2004/05 and for the first three

quarters of 2005/06. The data below refer to one of the main products.

Revenue April-June July-Sept Oct-Dec Jan-Mar

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2001/02 49 37 58 67

2002/03 50 38 59 68

2003/04 51 40 60 70

2004/05 50 42 61 --

Calculate the four quarterly seasonal indices and decompose the time series.

Ans: Note: For the computation of the modified mean, the highest and the lowest values of the means

in a quarter are not ignored. Adjustment factor: 4/3.994 = 1.0015 and the Seasonal indices are

Q1: 0.924, Q2: 0.719,Q3: 1.905, Q4: 1.262.

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