15th Feb, 2024

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 Morning Market Outlook
• Overnight smart rally in in the US and European markets, strong opening in Asian market, cooling down
UK January Inflation data, fall in US 10-year bond Yield from 2-month high and domestic Wholesale
(WPI) and CPI January inflation fell to 3-month low, may open domestic bourses on a positive note.
• US market soared over 1% and recovered almost entire yesterday losses. Sentiment boosted across the
global market after report that the few US Fed officials are in favour of cut in interest rate.
• UK, Germany and France Index soared by 1% each after UK January Inflation fell to 4%.
• Gift Nifty is up 75 points. Expects positive for beaten down stocks like rail, PSU Banks, oil & gas and
metal stocks.

Actionable Idea for the Day Index Levels :

Nifty Cash R1 R2 S1 S2
Technical Pick: 21,840 21,950 22,100 21,700 21,550
Tata Motors : Buy BankNifty Cash R1 R2 S1 S2
45,908 46,250 46,500 45,500 45,250
(CMP 918 SL 895 TP 960
2-3 Days) Top 5 Investment Idea
Stock Name Rating CMP TP Upside
Fundamental Pick: M&M Buy 1,662 2005 21%
HCL Tech Buy 1,666 1880 13%
NMDC : Positive Siemens Buy 4,398 4950 13%
(CMP: 236) Zomato Buy 152 170 12%
(Duration 1 Year) Apollo Hospital Buy 6,756 7400 10%
 Fundamental Outlook

Global Market Summary:

• US markets yesterday, gained ~0.5-1%, as the focus shifts from concern over sticky inflation and the
timing of interest-rate cuts to the positive economic and earnings outlook.
• Currently Dow Fut is trading flat.
• European indices yesterday, ended ~-0.5% higher, after drop in UK inflation data.
• Asian markets today, are trading on a mixed note.
• Global Cues: Positive
Indian Market Summary:
• Nifty yesterday, recovered smartly to close near the day’s high after opening on a negative note due to
higher than expected US inflation. The index ended with gains of 97 points (+0.5%) at 21840 levels.
• FIIs: -Rs3930 crore DIIs: +Rs2898 crore. Currently GIFT Nifty is trading flat.
• Domestic Cues: Muted
News and Impact :
HUL: The FMCG major is in talks with the Andhra Pradesh government to collaborate on palm oil
production in the state. HUL sought to partner with more than 15,000 farmers in Andhra Pradesh to create
at least 30,000 hectares of oil palm plantations. Impact: Positive
Paytm: The company, its subsidiaries, and its associate, Paytm Payments Bank, have received notices and
requisitions for information, documents, and explanations from the authorities, including the Enforcement
Directorate (ED), with respect to the customers that may have done business with the respective entities.
Impact: Negative
 Fundamental Actionable Idea
NMDC: CMP INR236
• Production stood at 12.2mt (YoY/QoQ: +15%/ +38%) while Sales stood at 11.4mt (YoY/QoQ: +19%/
+19%)
• Revenue grew +45%/ +35% YoY/QoQ and was 12% above our est led by beat in ASP which improved by
+22%/+13% YoY/QoQ during the quarter
• EBITDA too grew by +76%/ +69% YoY/QoQ, beating our est, driven by higher realizations, lower freight
cost and lower other manufacturing expenses.
• APAT for the quarter jumped by +90%/ +69% YoY/QoQ, further supported by lower depreciation and
higher other income.
• NMDC declared first interim dividend of INR5.75/share
View: Buy

M&M: CMP INR1657, TP INR2005, 21% Upside, Buy

• M&M 3QFY24 operating performance was in line with our estimates with revenue/EBITDA up 17%/15%
YoY. Volumes growth stood at ~11% YoY, while ASP grew 5% YoY.
• However, adj. PAT growth of 11% YoY beat our estimate, led by higher other income and lower tax.
• Key growth drivers in FY25 are likely to be: i) SUV – the management’s guidance of mid-teens growth on
the back of healthy demand and new launches; ii) tractors – recovery after the base correction led by
better growth prospects vs. FY24.
• We estimate a CAGR of ~12%/15%/16% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY23-26.
View: Buy
 Nifty Technical Outlook
Nifty (CMP: 21840): Nifty immediate support at 21700 then 21550 zones while resistance at 21950 then
22100 zones. Now it has to hold above 21750 zones, for an upside move towards 21950 then 22100
zones whereas supports are placed at 21700 then 21550 zones.
 Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

Bank Nifty (CMP: 45908) : Bank Nifty support at 45500 then 45250 zones while resistance at 46250 then
46500 zones. Now it has to hold above 45750 zones for an up move towards 46250 then 46500 levels
whereas on the flipside, support is seen at 45500 then 45250 zones.
 Technical Trading Idea

Tata Motors : Buy CMP : 918 Target : 960 SL : 895 Duration : 2-3 Days
• Tata Motors is in overall uptrend and continuously forming higher top-higher bottom from past four
months.
• It has negated lower highs after five trading sessions and formed a strong bullish candle. Momentum
indicator Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positively placed which may take the price higher.
 Derivative Outlook

 Nifty February future closed at 21,916.85 with a premium of 76.80 point v/s 80.50 point premium in the
last session.
 Nifty futures OI decreased by 0.82% to 1.32 Cr and Bank Nifty futures OI decreased by 5.23% to 34.58
Lakhs.
 Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) increased from 0.99 to 1.24 level.
 India VIX was down by 2.34% from 15.81 to 15.44 levels. Volatility cooled off from its highs and gave
way for the bulls at crucial support zones.
 On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 22000 then 22200 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 21000 then
21600 strike. Call writing is seen at 22000 strike while some Put writing is seen at 21600 strike. Option
data suggests a broader trading range in between 21300 to 22200 zones while an immediate trading
range in between 21500 to 21900 zones.
 Derivative Outlook

Nifty OI 1-Day change in Nifty OI

• Option Buying: Buy Weekly Nifty 21850 Call till it holds above 21750 zones. Buy Weekly Bank Nifty
46500 Call till it holds above 45750 zone
• Option Strategy: Buy Weekly Nifty Bull Call Ladder Spread (Buy 21850 CE, Sell 22000 CE and Sell
22050 CE) at net premium cost of 45-50 points. Buy Weekly Bank Nifty Bull Call Ladder Spread (Buy
46000 CE, Sell 46500 CE and Sell 47000 CE) at net premium cost of 110-120 points.
• Option Writing: Sell Weekly Nifty 21600 PE and 22050 CE at inflow of 20-22 points with strict double
SL. Sell Weekly Bank Nifty 43300 PE and 48000 CE at inflow of 50-55 points with strict SL.
Siddhartha Khemka Chandan Taparia, CMT, CFTe
Head - Retail Research Derivatives & Technical Analyst
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