March 27, 2022

OPINION

Pakistan’s new security challenges

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Can Pakistan overcome new security challenges which are emanating from changing regional
security landscape and internal discords?

Externally, Pakistan faces new security threats from impending perilous outcomes in
Afghanistan, shifting global power dynamics with intensifying US-China power competition,
growing Indo-US strategic partnership, changing nature and characteristics of the Indian state,
advancing technology and cyber threats, navigating new geopolitics of the region, and emerging
transboundary terrorism challenges.

If Afghanistan descends into chaos because of the looming humanitarian crisis, it will create
security challenges for Pakistan. The fallout of Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis can be refugee
influx in the KPK and Balochistan, which have already been volatile provinces of the country. The
more Afghan exodus reaches these two provinces, the greater economic pain will be felt.
Consequently, conflict escalates over meagre resources—especially water and food—between
different segments of society, creating a new theatre of contest in both provinces of the country.
Moreover, the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan seems to have emboldened other extremist
groups such as the TTP and the IS-K, impelling them to increase their terrorist activities in
Pakistan, thereby disrupting hardly achieved internal peace and stability.

With the shifting of winds of power from West to East, Pakistan, owing to its geostrategic
location, will find itself in the eye of the geopolitical storm of US-China power competition.
Pakistan’s balancing approach toward the USA and China is no longer workable; it has to make a
strategic choice between Washington and Beijing as both powers’ growing competition is
compressing time and space for Islamabad. Obviously, by aligning with either of the two great
powers, Pakistan will confront new security challenges because great powers can cloud the
strategic environment of the region. The growing Indo-US strategic romance can greatly affect
the regional strategic stability.

Both external and internal security threats deserve attention. Pakistan can
overcome external challenges by crafting proactive foreign policy measures
in order to protect its national interests. Pakistan’s geo-economic shift is a
significant policy initiative that will help the country steering itself out of new
geopolitical crises. Besides, appreciating diversity, getting rid of extremism,
making equal distribution of resources, promoting democratic culture, and
educating the youth can be panacea to these security challenges.

To contain China, the USA has forged a strategic alliance with India; both countries have
increased their military collaboration. Despite nuclear deterrence, strategic balance in the region
will tilt in favour of India provided that Washington throws its strategic weight behind New Delhi
to obstruct Beijing’s regional outreach. As a result, Pakistan will be at disadvantaged position as
the regional balance of power shifts against it, while India is radically transforming internally.

Notwithstanding India has claimed to be a secular and democratic country, power usurpation by
the BJP-RSS cohort, with ultranationalist sentiments, has changed the nature and characteristics
of the Indian state. The moderate and secular impulse of the country has stopped working; India
is now becoming a dangerous radical country with increasing extremist tendencies in both the
government and the media. This ideological change in India brought about the Pulwama/Balakot
crisis, and has increased the risk of nuclear escalation between the two nuclear armed countries.
Ideological shift in India, as has been taking place since the BJP has come to power, would have
horrendous repercussions for regional peace. It increases the risk of strategic miscalculation by
affecting crises as well as deterrence stability.

However, technological advancement is critical for modern development. But it has security
implications, too. Artificial intelligence and cyber security advancement by adversaries put
vulnerable countries at risk. India’s primacy in the IT sector creates national security challenges
for Pakistan because New Delhi attempts to use its technological superiority to carry out
cyberattacks against Islamabad. Critical communication networks will be disrupted that certainly
result in the breach of national security data by putting all security installations, banking systems
and information sectors at risk. Besides, information warfare and cyberterrorism are also woven
into the global technological landscape.

Moreover, shifting sands of regional geopolitics puts stress on the country’s national security.
Navigating these troubled waters will not be as smooth as it seems since geopolitical
transformation is occurring in Pakistan’s neighbourhood and beyond. Militant groups at the
helm of affairs in Afghanistan, Indo-US strategic alignment, Indo-Israel bonhomie, Saudi-Iran
discontent, Arab normalization with Israel, great power competition at the Indo-Pacific region,
Russia’s return to South Asia and China’s quest to be the next global superpower are critical
developments which can be a litmus test for Pakistan’s national security.

Although Pakistan has succeeded in eliminating terrorist networks by launching several military
operations in conflict-ridden areas of the country, terrorist outfits have flown to Afghanistan and
other neighbouring countries from where they operate and carry out sporadic terrorist activities
in Pakistan. Religious and nationalist banned militant organizations tend to launch attacks on
Pakistani soil by hiding in neighbouring countries. Recent mounting terrorist activities in the
country signify that new security threats are emerging from transboundary terrorist operations.

Internally, identity crisis, ethno-nationalism, extremism, deteriorating state-society relations,

Both external and internal security threats deserve attention. Pakistan can overcome external
challenges by crafting proactive foreign policy measures in order to protect its national interests.
Pakistan’s geo-economic shift is a significant policy initiative that will help the country steering
itself out of new geopolitical crises. Besides, appreciating diversity, getting rid of extremism,
making equal distribution of resources, promoting democratic culture, and educating the youth
can be panacea to these security challenges.