Table Of Contents

01 Pakistan’s economy

Highlights Of Pakistan’s
02
Economic Survey 2022-23

03 AI and Climate Change

04 Inflation and Devaluation

05 All you need to know about the OIC

06 CSS Final Months’ Essentials

07 Israel Palestine Conflict

08 Tougher Challenges Lies Ahead

09 Spoiling Peace

Welcome to the new era of global

10 sea power

11 Pakistan’s Afghan Predicamet

12 Canada-US Trade Partnership: A

Model For Pakistan And India
13 Artificial Intelliggence and the
Future of Humans
 New Article 2023

PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY
Could 2024 mark Pakistan’s economic turnaround
moment?
Najy Benhassine | Martin Raiser
LAFTER a commendable long period of
uninterrupted decline in poverty rates,
Pakistan’s economy is now facing one of its
worst crises. Poor policy choices, combined
with a series of shocks — Covid 19, the 2022
catastrophic floods and adverse global
conditions, caused growth to slow, poverty to
increase, and brought the country to the
brink of debt default. Moreover, human
development outcomes remain at levels we
see in much poorer countries, while per capita
income growth has been declining in the face
of low productivity and high fertility.
These challenges call for deep, sustained
reforms. We recently launched Policy Notes
which lay out our views on what these should
entail (available on the World Bank Pakistan
website).
FUNDAMENTAL REFORMS
What we propose is not new. We and others have made similar suggestions before. What is different this
time is that the alternative of muddling through with short-term fixes and external financing is riskier and
much harder to pull off.
Many countries’ turnarounds have emerged out of similar crises. For Pakistan too, this could be an
opportunity to address deep rooted issues that have plagued the country’s development for too long.
First, Pakistan must address its human capital crisis. Seven per cent of children die before their fifth birthday
— that is multiple times higher than in comparable countries. Forty per cent of children under five suffer
from stunted growth — more than 50pc in poorer districts. Halving stunting rates in a decade is feasible, but
will require a shift from the traditional focus on nutrition and health only, to providing wider access to clean
water and sanitation, birth spacing services, and improved living and hygiene environments.
It will take strong cross-sectoral and local coordination, a national
mobilisation and behavioural change campaign, and investments of
close to 1pc of GDP every year. A weak education system compounds
the effects of stunting: 78pc of 10-year-old children are unable to read
an age-appropriate text, while over 20 million children are out of
school
01
Second, to finance improvements in service delivery But lasting impact will require addressing urgently
and human capital development, Pakistan must the core issues behind low investment and
generate more fiscal space. Tax collection has declining productivity growth — levelling the
remained at a low 10pc of GDP for decades. playing field, spurring competition, cutting red
Abolishing expensive tax exemptions and reducing tape and increasing policy predictability.
compliance costs alone could quickly generate Fourth, the agriculture sector must be transformed
about 3pc of GDP in added revenues. More could to safeguard food security in the face of climate
be raised at the provincial and local levels from change and rising water scarcity. Current subsidies,
undertaxed sectors, like real estate, agriculture, and government procurement and price restrictions
retail — potentially raising another 3pc of GDP. lock farmers into low-value, undiversified farming
Expenditure savings could be achieved by more systems and water-intensive crops
efficient management of public resources. Most loss-
making public enterprises should be privatised. These subsidies should be reallocated into public
Poorly targeted subsidies in agriculture and energy goods such as research on seeds, veterinary
should be cut, while protecting the poorest. services, irrigation, and drainage services,
Overlaps between federal and provincial spending promoting regenerative agriculture and building
should also be cut. These measures could provide integrated agriculture value chains. Such measures
savings of another 3pc of GDP per year. could generate productivity gains, boost on- and
off-farm incomes, and make Pakistan more
Over time, bold fiscal reforms could potentially resilient against climate shocks.
generate more than 12pc of GDP in new fiscal Fifth, energy sector inefficiencies need to be
space. This is three times the additional resources addressed faster and more consistently, as they
needed to address human development gaps — have long been a drain on public resources. Recent
leaving enough resources to raise public investments tariff increases have helped limit losses while
in infrastructure and reduce public debt. But to put protecting poor consumers, but large distribution
Pakistan’s public finances on a more sustainable and transmission losses, combined with high
footing will ultimately not be possible without generation costs have to be reduced to put the
stronger economic growth. sector on a sustainable footing. Fortunately,
Pakistan has access to some of the cheapest
Third, therefore, Pakistan must strive for a more hydropower and solar resources. Leveraging these
dynamic and open economy. Current policies will require investment, which will only come if
distort markets for the benefit of a few, while long-standing issues in the distribution and
preventing productivity growth. Frequent transmission systems are addressed, notably
overvaluation of the currency coupled with high through more private participation.
tariffs lead firms to focus on domestic markets,
disincentivising exports. A challenging business Also, tariffs adjustments needed to recover costs
environment deters investment, as does strong state have to be shielded from politics, in order to
presence in contested markets. Tax distortions also provide credible incentives for investors over the
discourage productive investment and support non- long term. All these policy shifts cannot be
tradable sectors such as real estate. Accelerating the achieved at the federal level alone.
sale of productive assets or selectively attracting @ Dawn
foreign investment deals may bring in much-needed
forex reserves in the short term.
02
 01

Local governments will need to be empowered with capacity to raise and efficiently allocate funding to invest in
much-needed local services. The decentralisation agenda needs to be revived.
Moreover, a more dynamic economy will provide opportunities for most Pakistanis, but to leave no one behind,
social safety nets will need to expand while improving targeting and coherence across federal and provincial
instruments.
By implementing such fundamental reforms in the coming years, Pakistan can achieve Upper-Middle Income
status by its centennial in 2047. We have no doubt it has the human capacities and a proven implementation
ability to reach this goal. The country has ample potential to not let this economic crisis go to waste, and instead,
make it a historical turning point. The year 2024 could mark ‘Pakistan’s moment’.
@ Dawn

It is Economic Power that determines

Political Power, and Governments
become the Political Functioneries of
Economic Power.
-Jose Saramago
03
 CEPI

• Electricity, Gas, and Water Supply, the other

sub-sector of Industry posted a growth of 6.0%
Highlights Of (3.14% last year).

Pakistan’s
• Services Sector growth: 0.86% (6.19% last year).
• Wholesale & Retail Trade (WRT): -4.46%

Economic Survey
(10.3% last year) – its performance is dependent
on Agriculture and Industry.

2022-23
• Transport and Storage: 4.73% (4.09% last year)
whereas accommodation and food services
activities have grown by 4.11% (4.08% last year).
• Information & Communication: 6.93 %
Following are the highlights of Pakistan (16.32% last year), due to an increase in revenue
Economic Survey 2022-23 launched here of PTA.
Thursday by Federal Minister for Finance and • Nominal GDP increased to Rs. 84,658 bn (Rs.
Revenue, Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar: 66,624 bn last year), recorded a growth of 27.1%
• Per Capita Income: $1,568 ($1,765 last year),

1 GROWTH AND INVESTMENT

• GDP growth (FY2023): 0.29% (Provisional)
-11.2 % Growth due to Currency depreciation,
lower growth, and rising population
against 6.1% last year. • Total Investment: 10.2 % growth (29.1% last
• Agriculture sector growth: 1.55 % (4.27 % last year), 13.6 % of GDP, (15.7 % FY 2022)
year) • Private Investment: 6.18 % growth (27.66% last
• Industry growth: -2.94 % (6.83% last year) year), 8.8% of GDP (10.5 % FY 2022)
• Manufacturing: -3.91% (10.86 % last year) • Public Investment: 14.10 % growth (39.27% last
• Construction Sector: -5.53% (1.90 % last year) year), 3.1 % of GDP, (3.5 % FY 2022) • National
Saving: 44.7 % growth (-3.8% last year), 12.6 % of
GDP, (11.1 % FY 2022)

2 AGRICULTURE
• Agriculture sector growth: 1.55 % (4.27 % last
year) • Crops sector growth: -2.49 % (8.19 % last
year) • Important crops growth: -3.20 % (5.41%
last year)
• Other crops growth: 0.23% (11.93% last year)
• Livestock sector growth: 3.78 % (2.25% last
year)
• Forestry growth: 3.93% (4.07% last year)
• Fishing growth: 1.44% (0.35% last year)
Manufacturing Growth: 3.91% (10.86% last year)
• LSM growth (Jul-Mar, FY2023): -8.11%
(10.61% last year)
04
 CEPI

3 FISCAL DEVELOPMENT
• Fiscal deficit (Jul-Apr FY2023): 4.6 % of GDP
• Broad money (M2) (01st July-12th May,
FY2023): ?7.3% to Rs 2,026.3 bn (Rs 1,512.0
(4.9 % of GDP last year). bn, 6.2% last year)
• Primary balance (Jul-Apr FY2023): a surplus of • Credit to the private sector (01st Jul-12th
Rs. 99.1 bn (deficit of Rs.890.2 bn last year), May, FY2023): Rs 75.4 bn (Rs 1,345.2 bn last
reflecting a slowdown in the growth of non- year).
markup expenditures. • Fixed investment loans stood at Rs 185.4 bn
• Total revenue (Jul-Mar FY2023): increased by during Jul-Apr, FY2023 (Rs 366.7 bn last year).
18.1 % to Rs.6,938.2 bn (Rs. 5,874.2 bn last year). • Working Capital loans observed retirement of
Both tax and non-tax collection contributed to an Rs 460.3 mn during JulyApril, FY2023 (Rs
increase in overall revenue. 628.9 bn last year).

4
• Total Tax revenue Federal and Provincial (Jul-
Mar FY2023): grew by 16.5 % to Rs. 5,617.7bn TRADE & PAYMENTS
(Rs.4,821.9bn last year) on the back of a significant
•Trade deficit (Jul-May FY2023) contained by
rise in FBR tax collection despite various
40.4% to $25.8 bn (deficit of $ 43.4 bn last
economic challenges at the domestic and global
year)
levels.
• Imports (Jul-May FY2023) restricted to $
• Non-tax revenue (Jul-Mar FY2023): grew by
51.2 bn ($72.3 bn last year), reflecting a decline
25.5 % to Rs.1,320.5 bn (Rs.1,052.2 bn last year).
of 29.2%.
• Total expenditures (Jul-Mar FY2023): grew by
• Exports (Jul-May FY2023) reached $ 25.4 bn
18.7 % to Rs.10,016.9 bn (Rs.8,439.8 bn last year).
($ 28.9 bn last year), declined by 12.1%.
• Current expenditures (Jul-Mar FY2023): grew by
• Current Account Deficit (Jul-Apr, FY2023)
25.3 % to Rs.9,244.6 bn (Rs.7,378.0 bn last year). o
narrowed down by 76% to $ 3.3 bn (1.0 % of
Higher growth is mainly due to a 69.1 % growth in
GDP) against the deficit of $ 13.7 bn last year
markup payments due to higher policy rates at the
(3.6 % of GDP).
domestic & international levels and a Rupee
• Remittances (Jul-Apr, FY2023) declined by
depreciation.
13.0% to $ 22.7 bn ($ 26.1 bn last year).
• Development expenditures and net lending (Jul-
• Total public debt (end March 2023): Rs.
Mar FY2023): marginal increase of 0.9 % to
59,247 bn at end-March 2023
Rs.1,060.4 bn (Rs.1,051.1 bn last year).
• Domestic debt (end March 2023): Rs. 35,076
• Expenditures under PSDP (Jul-Mar FY2023):
bn
registered a decline of 1.8 % to Rs.1,014.0 bn
• External public debt (end March 2023): Rs.
(Rs.1,032.7 bn last year).
24,171 bn or $ 85.2 bn
• FBR tax collection (Jul-May, FY2023): increased
• Remittances (Jul-Apr, FY2023) declined by
by 16.1 % to Rs. 6,210.1 bn (Rs. 5,348.2 bn last
13.0% to $ 22.7 bn ($ 26.1 bn last year).
year). Money and Credit
• Within domestic debt, the government relied
• Policy rate (FY2022), increased by a cumulative
on long-term domestic debt securities (floating
675 bps from 7.0% to 13.75%.
rate PIBs and Sukuk) for the financing of its
• Policy Rate (July-April FY2023), increased by
fiscal deficit and repayment of debt maturities.
725 bps to 21%.
• Broad money (M2) (01st July-12th May,
FY2023): ?7.3% to Rs 2,026.3 bn (Rs 1,512.0 bn,
6.2% last year)
05
BORCELLE 2023 23
 CEPI

5 POPULATION LABOUR
FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT
• According to the National Institute of
6 INFORMATION TECHHNOLOGY
& TELECOMMUNICATION
• IT sector posted a trade surplus of $ 1.72 bn in
Population Studies the estimated population is Jul-Mar FY2023, showing an increase of 16.7%
229.22 mn in 2022. compared to the last year.
• According to the LFS 2020-21, total labour • IT exports during Jul-Mar FY2023 recorded at
force is 71.76 mn out of which 67.25 mn are $ 1.94 bn having the highest share of 35.1% in all
employed and 4.51 mn are unemployed with services exports.
unemployment rate at 6.3%. • During Jul-Mar FY2023, the Pakistan
• Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Software Exports Board has added 07 Software
Employment has registered 8,29,549 workers for Technology Parks (Faisalabad, Gujrat,
overseas employment in CY2022 as compared to Jamshoro, Karachi, Multan, Peshawar,
2,86,648 in CY2021 showing an increase of Rawalpindi) to facilitate the IT industry.
542,901 workers. • IGNITE has established 08 National
• Up till March 2023, the government has Incubation Centers (NICs) including two
disbursed Rs 6,965 mn under Prime Minister specialized incubators, i.e., for agri-tech and
Youth Business & Agriculture Loan Scheme for aerospace.
businesses. • NICs have incubated over 1317 startups that
have generated over 126,000 jobs; received a
total investment of Rs 15.43 bn ($ 74 mn); and
have generated a combined revenue of Rs 9.13
bn.
• More than 2,300 women entrepreneurs have
been empowered through the program.
• The telecommunication industry attracted
investment of $ 632 mn during Jul-Dec FY2023.
• The revenue of the Telecom Industry remained
at Rs 137.7 bn during JulDec FY2023.

7 SOCIAL PROTECTION
•The government provided Rs 400 bn to the
BISP to execute the Social Protection
programmes in FY2023.
• BISP is currently disbursing payments to
around 9.0 mn beneficiaries under Benazir
Kafaalat Programme. During Jul-Mar, FY2023,
Rs 128.9 bn have been disbursed
• BISP has disbursed Rs 69 bn to 2.76 mn
families of flood-affected areas to help them
recover their financial losses.
@ Associated Press of Pakistan
06
BORCELLE 2023 23
AI AND
CLIMATE
To Develop
Sustainable Solutions Hafsa Azam
ARTIFICIAL intelligence has the potential to
revolutionise our response to the concerns of
climate change and climatic disasters. The
convergence of AI and climate action holds
promise not only for enhancing our ability to
adapt to a changing environment but also for
developing sustainable solutions that may help
mitigate the factors behind climate change.

Climate change is driven by anthropogenic

activities, causing greenhouse gas emissions and
global warming, and posing severe risks such as
rising sea levels, ecosystem disruption, the
endangering of species, and altered ocean
currents. Frequent climatic events such as
hurricanes, droughts, floods and wildfires cause lt left widespread destruction in Perry, Florida in its
biodiversity loss and pose health risks. From wake. Closer to home, in June this year, Cyclone
precision agriculture and renewable energy Biparjoy threatened Pakistan’s coastline and severely
optimisation to disaster prediction and response, impacted Gujarat in India, necessitating evacuations
AI is driving innovation that can reshape our and causing casualties. Severe floods struck Greece,
approach to climate-related issues. Türkiye, and Bulgaria in September 2023 with heavy
rains causing flooding and landslides. Rwanda also

A surge in Climate
experienced floods and landslides in May 2023.
According to the US National Oceanic and
Change-induced Atmospheric Administration, over the past two

disasters decades, rising temperatures, prolonged droughts

and arid conditions have elevated wildfire risks.
In 2023, a surge in climate change-induced Climate change amplifies interconnected factors such
disasters occurred worldwide. Hurricane Idalia, as temperature and humidity in vegetated areas,
originating in the Caribbean in 2023, attained triggering dangerous wildfires.
Category 3 status.

07
 AI plays a crucial role in providing weather forecasts for anticipating natural disasters
accurately. Conventional forecasting relies on intricate mathematical models, which may not be
able to predict extreme events. AI’s foremost contribution lies in providing early warning
mechanisms and post-disaster recovery efforts. Through the analysis of extensive data from
sources like satellite imagery, weather stations, and social media, AI algorithms can discern
patterns and trends indicative of impending disasters.

For instance, AI-driven systems can detect There are no AI-based measures mentioned in the
hurricane formation and factors that could lead to National Artificial Intelli­gence Policy to address
wildfire, such as smoke plumes, rapidly changing climate disaster mitigation. Countries, such as the US,
heat signatures and the appearance of hotspots in which have invested in AI for disaster response, have
vegetated areas in satellite images, enabling timely witnessed notable impro­v­e­ments in preparedness and
warnings and evacuations. The US utilises AI to rapid response time, underlining the potential benefits
enhance weather predictions, early warnings, flood of a dedicated climate-disaster-mitigation AI policy.
monitoring, disaster-response coordination, Pakistan should therefore consider incorporating
infrastructure assessment and long-term climate climate-disaster-mitigation AI technology measures
modelling, which improves resilience and disaster into the NAIP to effectively cope with the impacts of
management. Japan has introduced an emergency climate change. ©DAWN
announcement system, utilising automated drones
to facilitate disaster evacuations.
These drones operate on a dedicated private wireless
network that remains functional during
emergencies. They are equipped with infrared
cameras to capture real-time images of disaster-
affected areas and transmit them to disaster-
response centres to urge people to evacuate. This
technology enhances the speed and security of
remote damage assessment, thereby improving
disaster response efficiency.
Pakistan needs to integrate AI into the operations of
its meteorological departments due to the severe
impact of climate change. The country faces
challenges such as reduced agricultural productivity,
irregular water supplies, coastal erosion and
increased extreme weather events, making AI-based
climate disaster management crucial. Pakistan ranks
among the top 10 countries which are most affected
by climate change. Severe floods in 2022, with
rainfall three times higher than the national average,
had caused damage to the tune of $30 billion, with
more than 1,200 fatalities.
08
 New Article 2024

INFLATION AND DEVALUATION

| Miftah Ismail
Then rupee would have depreciated by 100pc and
the new exchange parity would have been Rs200 to
a dollar. To reduce inflation we must reduce the
budget deficit.The only thing that changed in this
economy was twice as much money chasing the
same amount of goods, therefore doubling the
price and depreciating the rupee. This is our
difficulty. In the last few years, as our budget
IN December 2023, consumer prices were 29.7
deficit has ballooned, to pay for the deficit we have
per cent higher compared to December a year
printed more and more money and as more rupees
earlier. Worse still, every month for more than a
are chasing the same amount of goods, we have
year our year-on-year inflation number has been
experienced persistently high inflation and rapid
above 20pc. There was however positive news in
devaluation.
the recent inflation data too. Prices in December
In five-and-a-half years since the start of fiscal year
rose by only 0.8pc over November, which was the
2018, our money supply has increased by over
second smallest monthly increase in a year.
100pc, with the fastest increase coming in the six-
And just like November 2023, the increase in
monthly period between January and June of last
prices was only due to the increased cost of gas
year, with February to May showing the four
and electricity — in fact, food prices declined in
highest monthly inflation numbers in our history.
December. The tight monetary policy being
Since then the rapid growth in money supply has
pursued by SBP has finally been able to wring the
declined and we are witnessing inflation tapering
juice out of our economy and we are going to see
down.
inflation and interest rates come down.
The two main ways money supply increases are
But why does Pakistan have such persistently
when the private sector borrows from banks or
high inflation when inflation never went so high
when the government borrows to finance its
globally and has receded for months? To
budget deficit. Since our private sector borrowing
understand, let’s think of a simple economy with
is decreasing, this means the money supply is
three sellers each selling a food packet and three
increasing primarily to finance the budget deficit.
buyers each given Rs100 by the government.
This has caused inflation; it is to contain this
It stands to reason that packets would sell for
inflation that SBP has been raising interest rates.
Rs100 each. Now if the price of these food
Some argue that this model doesn’t apply to
packets abroad is one dollar, we will have an
Pakistan or that ours is a “cost-push” inflation and
exchange rate of one dollar being equal to Rs100.
hence the SBP shouldn’t have raised interest rates.
If the government had given each consumer
However, if interest rates are much below inflation,
Rs200 and we still had three food packets
people will not save and borrow just to park
available, then the price for each food packet
money in land, gold or foreign currency.
would have been Rs200. Again, since the
international price of a food packet is one dollar.
09
Central banks raise interest rates to
constrain aggregate demand and
borrowing. This the SBP has successfully
done in the case of our private sector.
But unfortunately our government, in the
face of higher interest rates leading to
higher debt service payments, has not
been able to cut the deficit. Instead it has
borrowed more, causing the money
supply to increase. This has led to the
persistence of our inflation. In our simple
economy with three consumers and three
food packets, we saw that when money
doubled, so did prices. But if the number
of food packets had also doubled when
the money supply doubled, prices
wouldn’t have increased.
This means that if our economy had been able to increase the output of goods and services as money supply
rose, we wouldn’t have seen inflation. Pakistan is not unique in running a budget deficit or increasing money
supply. But we stand out in our almost total failure to use our government spending to increase worker
productivity or the economy’s productive capacity. Economists argue that national income (or output) grows
when labour or capital grows or primarily when there is technical progress — ie increases in education, skills
and technological know-how. But this has never been a priority for us. In a country where 58pc of kids under
five are either stunted or wasted and where 78pc of 10-year-old kids cannot properly read, such improvement
in productivity remains a pipe dream.

So the anaemic economic growth we have had over the last two decades is due primarily to the increase in our
labour force and a little increase in capital and not because of any improvement in skills or knowledge. Going
back to our simple economy one last time, with food packets each priced at Rs200 and the international price
of food packets being one dollar, each dollar should be for Rs200. Now, if our government decides to sell
dollars for Rs150, it would mean that no food packet could be exported from Pakistan and traders would
turn to importing food packets. This has happened to Pakistan too, when various governments, to keep
current prices low and voters happy, sacrificed exports and manufacturing and gave rise to huge current
account deficits. (This is not to say that we should not stop smuggling or hawala. But SBP should not be
selling dollars in the interbank market to keep the rupee at some predetermined value).

There are no magic solutions to our economic problems. We are a poor and uneducated country and will
remain poor until we remain uneducated. However, to reduce inflation we must reduce the budget deficit. At
the same time to achieve growth, we must invest in our people and increase their productivity and the
country’s productive capacity. Finally, it is important to keep a flexible, market-driven exchange rate so our
exports can increase. Deviations from rational economic policymaking will perhaps get us short-term relief,
but as has always been the case, it will cause long-term damage.
@Dawn 10
 ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW
ABOUT THE OIC
Second largest intergovernmental body after the UN.

The collective voice of the Muslim world

The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation is the That works to “protect the interests of the Muslim
second largest intergovernmental body after the world”. It was established by 24 member states in
UN. Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud 1969.
will host the 14th summit of the Organisation of Today, with 57 member states from four continents,
Islamic Cooperation (OIC) on Friday in Mecca, the OIC is the second-largest intergovernmental
Saudi Arabia. The meeting is expected to address organisation in the world after the United Nations,
“current issues in the Muslim world” and “recent with a collective population reaching over 1.8 billion.
developments in a number of OIC member The majority of its member states are Muslim-
states”, according to the official agenda. Topping majority countries, while others have significant
the summit discussions will be regional security Muslim populations, including several African and
issues amid soaring tension between Iran and the South American countries. While the 22 members of
United States and its Gulf allies. The OIC’s the Arab League are also part of the OIC, the
mission statement bills it as “the collective voice organisation has several significant non-Arab
of the Muslim world”. member states, including Turkey, Iran and Pakistan.
11
It also has five observer members, including Russia While the organisation has been known for its
and Thailand. The organisation has permanent cultural and social projects, its political influence
delegations to the UN and the European Union and has been relatively limited.
its official languages are Arabic, English and “Typically, in the past, the OIC has been effective
French. in promoting cultural and educational projects
Why was the OIC established? across the Muslim world,” Sami Hamdi, a Middle
The OIC first met in Morocco in September 1969, a East expert, told Al Jazeera. “However, its political
month after an arson attack inside the Al-Aqsa capabilities remain severely limited.”
Mosque that destroyed part of the roof and the 800- According to Mamoon Alabbasi, a political
year-old pulpit of Salahuddin, best known for analyst focusing on the Middle East and North
recapturing Jerusalem from the Crusaders in the Africa region, while the OIC has relative political
12th century. weight, its rhetoric does not always translate into
Reacting to the incident, representatives from 24 action on the ground.
Muslim countries met in “With 57 member
the capital Rabat to states… the OIC carries
establish a body that a [relatively] heavy
would promote political weight… [and]
cooperation across the impact. But how much
Muslim world. change that makes on
In March 1970, the first the ground is not
Islamic Conference of always clear,” said
Foreign Ministers was Alabbasi. Adding to its
held in Jeddah, Saudi political limitations is its
Arabia, and plans for inability to unify its
setting up a permanent stance on issues, say
secretariat for the OIC experts. “Like other
were established. international
Issues relating to Palestine have been central to the organisations, such as the UN General Assembly,
OIC’s agenda and summit discussions. The the OIC is supposed to have a unified voice but it
organisation has continuously condemned what does not because policies of the individual countries
member states consider Israeli aggressions against greatly differ,” said Alabbasi. “Most importantly,
the Palestinians. Other issues that have also taken the OIC doesn’t have a unified voice because most
centre stage in OIC summits include the wars in of its member countries are not democracies. So,
Bosnia and Iraq, a rise in the number of refugees while their populations may be in agreement [over
from Muslim-majority countries such as Syria, as an issue] they do not always represent the views of
well as Islamophobia in the West. their populations.” Hamdi agrees: “The OIC has a
broad spectrum of different cultures. This means
Objectives and role that on the political front, even if there is a united
According to its charter, the OIC aims to preserve stance, it means very little, practically.”
Islamic values, safeguard and defend the national
sovereignty and independence of member states and
to contribute to international peace and security.

12
Is the OIC relevant and effective? to a lesser extent the Arab League, there tends
Like other intergovernmental organisations, to be an agreement on issues in broad terms, as
although resolutions issued by the OIC are not opinions are similar, even if there is some
usually followed by action, statements usually point disagreement,” added Alabbasi.
towards member states’ “red lines” that they cannot
cross, say experts.
How does the OIC operate?
“If you want to know what position member states
The OIC holds an Islamic Summit once every three
can take in the eyes of their own public, statements
years. At the summit, heads of state discuss ways to
by the OIC are reflective of that. They [statements]
achieve the charter’s objectives and make policy
show their [member states’] limits,” explained
decisions that concern its member states.
Alabbasi. Because the OIC includes a significant
Talha Abdulrazaq, a Middle East expert at the
number of Arab states among its membership, it has
University of Exeter’s Strategy and Security
often been compared with the Arab League.
Institute, explained how OIC decisions and
While the two organisations share many similarities,
resolutions are much like they are at UN General
the main difference lies in the OIC’s limited
Assembly. Member states each get a vote. Each
politicisation compared with the Arab League, say
member state can table a resolution and then others
analysts.
can vote on it or suggest tweaks.
“The Arab League is more of a political entity than
“But much like the GA, OIC resolutions aren’t
the OIC given the close proximity of its members and
binding. They are just a declaration of the general
the, often joint, threat that the countries have had to
feeling of the leaders of the Islamic world,” said
face in the past,” according to Hamdi.
Abdulrazaq.
According to Alabbasi, because of its wider scope of
Meeting on a more regular basis, the council of
membership, a lack of consensus within the OIC sets
foreign ministers convenes annually to evaluate the
it farther apart from the Arab League.
implementation of the organisation’s policies and
“The OIC is very different in the sense that member
objectives. The general secretariat, the OIC’s
states cannot get a consensus across,” said Alabbasi
executive body, is responsible for implementing
“But in other organisations such as the GCC, and
those decisions. @ Al- Jazeera

13
CSS FINAL MONTHS
ESSENTIALS
CSS 2024 is fast approaching, and the success
of aspirants hinges on their strategies in these
final days. The exam poses challenges not only
during the preparation phase but also on the
examination days. To excel in this endeavor,
aspirants must remain focused on their path
and avoid all distractions in the precious few
days that remain.
CSS 2024 is approaching, and the success of
aspirants hinges on their strategies in these final
This step is crucial as it occurs during the
days. The CSS exam poses challenges not only
revision phase of your lengthy notes. Short
during the preparation phase but also on the
notes aid students in writing practice and
examination days. To excel in this endeavor,
examinations. The brevity and conclusiveness
aspirants must focus on the following essentials:
of these notes will help students shine in their
01) Summarize the Syllabus:
results.
It is high time for aspirants to summarize their
03) Start Writing Practice:
syllabus at this point in their preparation.
Mastering your writing skills, especially speed
Excessively lengthy notes imply that aspirants
lies at the top of all CSS exam tips. Writing
will not have time for revision. Summing up the
practice is the most important part of
syllabus entails covering all topics and
competitive examinations. Written exams
preparing solutions for past papers. The ideal
demand language perfection, command over
time to move on to other steps is to finalize this
expression, and strong argumentation from
one early.
aspirants. These skills can only be honed
02) Make Short Notes:
through rigorous writing practice and proper
After finalizing the syllabus, the next step is
evaluation. The last month must be dedicated
creating concise notes from the lengthy ones.
to writing practice to address preparation
loopholes.
04) Attempt Essays and Get them Evaluated:
Along with overall writing practice,
attempting essays and having them checked is
crucial for qualifying for the exam. English
essays are one of the hardest subjects in
competitive examinations to qualify for.

14
Practicing essay writing before the exam
maximizes the chances of aspirants articulating a
comprehensive essay. Therefore, aspirants’
dedication will determine their fate in making it
to the final selection list.
05) Allot Time to MCQs:
Additionally, aspirants must not forget that two
hundred twenty marks are allocated to the
MCQs part in the CSS exam. This substantial
number of marks should be taken seriously by
students. Aspirants need to focus on these marks
by allocating half an hour of their daily routine at
this stage of their preparation.
Also Read: PTI vs PDM: Why Imran Khan Will
Win Whether He Stays PM or Not
06) Take Care of your Health:
During this phase, it is crucial to look after
yourself. Health always comes first. At this point,
aspirants need to focus on their health by
incorporating stretching, walking, and
maintaining a healthy diet. Students’ health and
well-being will enhance their efficiency in exams.
07) Minimize External Exposure:
Lastly, avoiding external exposure, such as
avoiding social media, attending dinners, meeting
friends and relatives, and engaging in activities
other than studying, must be avoided. These
activities will affect aspirants’ focus and not
produce the desired results.
In conclusion, it is an ideal time for a serious
aspirant to enhance their preparation by
following these steps. Competitive examinations
demand dedication, perseverance, and
consistency. To succeed, one needs to make
sacrifices outside their comfort zones. Therefore,
CSS 2024 and its last-month essentials go hand in
glove. Those who aspire to achieve their dreams
must work harder than the rest.

@ ParadigmShift

15
 ISRAEL PALESTINE CONFLICT
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF TRAUMA

HOW INSIGHTS FROM THERAPEUTIC PRACTICE CAN HELP BUILD PEACE?

Jessica Stern | Bessel van der Kolk

R equires leaders who can reach across

divided communities and provide
hope in a seemingly hopeless time
to override the all-too-human drive to
retaliate. They must understand that a
legacy of trauma makes Israeli Jews and

E
very perpetrator of terrorism sees himself as a Palestinians vulnerable to reactive
victim. Such is the case not only with individual violence, leading to a seemingly endless
terrorists, who often compete cycle of bloodshed. Although terrorists
with their enemies over who is more victimized, but also rarely achieve their political aims, they
with terrorist groups and nation states. Terrorism is often succeed at one goal: forcing the
psychological warfare, and so it requires a psychologically enemy to overreact. Terrorists try to
informed response. Those who study trauma know that provoke a disproportionate response,
“hurt people hurt people,” and the adage holds true for hoping to win sympathy and radicalize a
terrorists. People who live in a state of existential anxiety new generation of victimized youth.
are prone to dehumanizing others. Hamas, for instance,
calls Israelis “infidels,” while the Israeli Defense Minister
Yoav Gallant has referred to members of Hamas as
“human animals,” and both sides have called the other
“Nazis.” Such dehumanizing language makes it easier to
overcome inhibitions against committing atrocities.
Just as individuals can relinquish their righteous rage and
compulsion to punish indiscriminately, so, too, can groups
and nations. But doing so
Hamas exemplified such a strategy when
it attacked Israel on October 7, which
triggered in many Israelis an
intergenerational memory of trauma
from pogroms, the Holocaust, and
expulsions from European countries,
Egypt, Iran, Iraq, and Yemen.

16

www.reallygreatsite.com
NAKBA Against
Palestine
Israel’s indiscriminate The violent displacement of
retaliatory airstrikes Palestinians started during the
formation of the state of Israel
in Gaza, which have in 1948. Both the Israelis and
killed thousands of the Palestinians are now locked
people and displaced in a snare of Hamas’s creation:
a traumatic embrace of death
hundreds of thousands and despair in which each side
more , have triggered —understandably seeing itself
in Palestinians a as a victim, feeling righteous

reliving of the nakba

rage, and desiring retribution—
is vying for global sympathy.
(Arabic for
“catastrophe”).

THE ENDURING INFLUENCE OF TERRORISM

Populations that experience terrorism naturally Libyan-backed terrorists killed 599 people in the
coalesce around their national, tribal, or religious four years after the U.S. response, compared with
identities and demand that their leaders retaliate. 136 people in the four years beforehand.
But massive retribution rarely works. Usually, in The Irish Republican Army similarly flourished in
fact, a disproportionate response to terrorism the face of aggressive state repression. In 1968, the
breeds even more terrorist attacks. IRA seemed to be on its last legs, but over the next
In 1986, for example, terrorists acting at the behest two decades, it would grow to become the best-
of the Libyan government bombed a nightclub in funded terrorist group in the West. In 1969,
Germany popular among U.S. servicemen, killing Catholics rioted in response to rampant
three people and injuring over 200. In retaliation, discrimination by the Protestant majority in
the United States killed dozens of people in a Northern Ireland. The uprising was instigated, in
bombing campaign against Libya that targeted part, by the IRA.
military facilities and a residence of Libyan leader Over the next four years, Protestant extremists
Muammar al-Qaddafi. According to a study by drove some 6,000 Catholics from their homes, in
the political scientist Stephen Collins, the U.S. what at that time was the largest case of ethnic
retaliatory raid led to a fourfold increase in cleansing in Europe since World War II.
fatalities: 17
DEFEATING THE HYDRA:
Academics often compare terrorist organizations to a hydra, the serpent from
Greek mythology. Each time the state tries to cut off the hydra’s head, two
more heads grow back in its place.
The displacement increased support for the IRA’s
cause. According to terrorism researcher Andrew
Silke, “The IRA themselves worked to provoke
harsh measures from the unfortunate security forces,
knowing full well the benefits it would reap in terms
of support and recruits.” When the group provoked
a riot in 1970 in the Ballymurphy neighborhood of
Belfast, for instance, security forces responded with
the widespread use of tear gas, alienating Catholics
in the area. Silke observes that the security forces
“lacked the restraint necessary to win the
propaganda war.”
As Seán MacStiofáin, an IRA leader, wrote in 1975,
“Most revolutions are not caused by revolutionaries
in the first place, but by the stupidity and brutality of
governments.”

He was right. By responding so aggressively, British In 1996, the Israeli security services killed Yahya
forces and the Northern Ireland police walked into a Ayyash, Hamas’s top bombmaker, with a booby-
trap laid by the IRA. Governments continue to fall trapped mobile telephone. Afterward, his deputy,
for similar traps. Academics often compare terrorist Hassan Salameh, organized the deadliest series of
organizations to a hydra, the serpent from Greek suicide bombings that Israel had known up to that
mythology. Each time the state tries to cut off the point, killing more than 60 people. Salameh
hydra’s head, two more heads grow back in its place. explained that he felt no remorse about the lives of
More than 20 years ago, Ismail Abu Shanab, a the young Palestinian men that were lost in the
founder and high-ranking member of Hamas, told attacks, saying,
one of us, Jessica Stern, that the “genius” of the “The terrible things that have happened to the
terrorist fight against Israel is that it feeds off of Palestinian people are far bigger and far stronger
Israel’s “atrocities.” than feeling sorry or guilty.” Suicide bombings
If Israel ramps up its fight against Hamas, it will surged again during the second intifada, which
only energize Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist began in 2000. Palestinian terrorist attacks killed an
groups and risk drawing Hezbollah, the Lebanese estimated 1,000 Israelis over the next five years,
militant group, or even Iran into the conflict. while Israelis killed an estimated 3,000 Palestinians
Hamas’s leaders have always been willing to let in response. Also in reaction to the second intifada,
young Palestinians die to carry out suicide Israel built a seemingly impenetrable wall on its
bombings. border with the West Bank.
18
 Vintage
It drew Fashion from the International Court
condemnation Fashion News
And in general, nonviolence tends to be the most
of Justice and the United Nations for isolating effective means of resistance. According to a study by
Palestinians, leading to accusations that Israel had political scientists Erica Chenoweth and Maria
created an apartheid state akin to white supremacist Stephan, between 1900 and 2006, nonviolent
South Africa. resistance campaigns were twice as likely to achieve
Hamas is willing to sacrifice the lives not only of their stated goals as violent ones. But such strategies
individual suicide bombers but also of thousands of can work only if Palestinians reject violence in favor
civilians. Hamas publicly predicted that its October 7 of nonviolent protest and Israel lets Palestinians
attack would eventually lead to the deaths of protest nonviolently. Take, for example, the African
numerous Palestinians. Khalil al-Hayya, a senior National Congress, the political party that ended the
Hamas official, told The New York Times in apartheid regime in South Africa. The ANC largely
November that the group had known the reaction to refrained from terrorism against civilians. Inspired by
its attack “would be big.” Hamas was desperate to Mahatma Gandhi’s nonviolent resistance in India,
shatter the status quo and push the Palestinian the movement was intimately linked to the
question back onto the world stage. Many analysts understanding that a country conceived in bloodshed
had warned that violence would break out under would be caught in an endless loop of ethnic violence.
Israeli Prime Minister . As the journalist Peter Beinart has argued, “It refused
to terrify and traumatize white South Africans
In April, Michael Barnett, Nathan Brown, Marc because it was not trying to force them out.
Lynch, and Shibley Telhami argued in Foreign t was trying to win them over to a vision of a
Affairs that “the risk of large-scale violent multiracial democracy.” Hamas, unlike the ANC,
confrontation grows with every day that has no such vision of a multiethnic state, hence its
Palestinians are locked in this ever-expanding lack of interest in nonviolent resistance. The group’s
system of legalized oppression and Israeli goal, according to its founding documents, is to
encroachment.” The October 7 attack was both destroy Israel, exterminate Jews, and establish a
horrific and predictable. theocratic state. Israel’s current right-wing
government also seems uninterested in creating a
Terrorism is psychological warfare, and so it requires multiethnic state with equal rights for Israeli Jews and
a psychologically informed response. The interests of Palestinians, guaranteeing ongoing strife.
Palestinians would be better served if their leaders For the sake of both the Israelis and the Palestinians,
chose nonviolent resistance rather than terrorism. Hamas needs to be forced out of power. But
Historian Rashid Khalidi has noted that, even eradicating the organization through a massive
though Jewish people have an “unquestionable bombing campaign would come at too high a cost.
connection” to the Holy Land, “Israel was
established as a European settler colonial project.”
And although all native people resist colonization—
be they Algerians, the Irish, or Native Americans—
the Palestinians’ struggle is complicated by the
history of persecution against Jewish people.
Because of this history, armed resistance seems to be
particularly counterproductive in the Israeli-
Palestinian conflict, despite working in some other
anticolonial wars.
As the scholar Edward Said has argued, the
Palestinians are the “the victims of the victims, the
refugees of the refugees.” 19
 Vintage Fashion
The best way for a government to fight terrorist movements is to avoid killing civilians—otherwise, the cycle of
victimization just breeds more terrorists. Disrupting the intergenerational cycle of violence will require an Israeli
approach that scrupulously avoids civilian casualties. Pressure from foreign governments can also help. The
United States, for example, should demand the protection of civilians as a condition for sending Israel weapons
and should deny visas to Israelis who live in illegal settlements.

FINDING EMPATHY
When people have experienced chronic terror, their minds become quick to detect danger and they tend to react
strongly to even minor provocations. Shared trauma creates strong bonds between survivors. It also leads to an
“us versus them” orientation, in which the outside world is (often justifiably) perceived as hostile, and only people
who belong to the same tribe, religion, or ethnicity are considered worthy of trust and loyalty. Growing up in
terror, whether caused by domestic or political violence leaves deep traces on developing minds, brains, and
identities: detecting and coping with threats becomes a central preoccupation at the expense of nurturing a
capacity for work and play. Disrupting the intergenerational cycle of trauma requires stopping violence in the
first place and developing empathy in those who have suffered trauma.

20
 Tougher Challenges lies Ahead
To address tougher cchallenges requires a bold and courageous leadership that leads a
competent team, sees the significance of deep structural reforms and has the
commitment to take measures, painful in the near term, but which yield enduring
dividends in the long run.

ALL eyes are on the general elections, now just a month

away. But what will happen after the election will be far
more consequential to the country’s future. Formidable
challenges await the next government.
The governing ability of the election winner will be
constrained by the complex dynamics of a volatile domestic
environment. This is characterised by persisting polarisation,
the most serious economic crisis in the country’s history,
surge in security threats, declining capacity of state
institutions, a fraught regional situation and a polity in
which power has shifted more substantively to the military
establishment. A slew of domestic and external challenges
will test the government.

These challenges will require the elected leadership to

distinguish between the urgent and important while
crafting a strategy to deal with both. Most
consequential for the country’s future will be the
government’s ability to deal with an economy in the
critical ward. Pakistan’s economic crises have all been Which sees the significance of deep structural
rooted in governance deficits, with reform-averse reforms and has the commitment to take
ruling elites resorting to pain-free ways to deal with
deep-seated problems. This band-aid approach that measures, painful in the near term, but which
relied on borrowing at home and external financing or yield enduring dividends in the long run.
bailouts from abroad has run its course and is no
None is more important than tax reform to
longer tenable.
Unless structural issues are tackled, the country will make the regime equitable and simple. For
not be able escape from the trap of anaemic growth, decades the tax-to-GDP ratio has remained
high deficits, heavy borrowing, growing indebtedness
and soaring inflation. The structural sources of
stuck at 10 per cent. Resource mobilisation, by
persisting financial imbalances lie in a narrow and widening the tax base, bringing untaxed sectors
inequitable tax regime, limited export base, the energy into the net, ensuring compliance, Reforming
sector’s circular debt, bankrupt public-sector
enterprises, heavy regulatory burden and low savings GST and ending exemptions, is the single most
and investment. What is needed is a comprehensive important endeavour to address the chronic
plan to address these structural issues and chart a
budget deficit and set the economy toward
path to sustainable growth that can end the vicious
cycle of high budget/ balance-of-payments deficits. A sustainability. A liberal and consistent business
chart for sustainable growth can also end the chronic regulatory framework is also necessary to build
foreign exchange crises, which have necessitated
repeated IMF bailouts. This in turn requires a bold and
and sustain investor confidence.
courageous leadership that leads a competent team, Both the urgent and important have to be
tackled to extricate Pakistan from crisis. While
dealing with the urgent —
21
The immediate financial crisis — the important too Politicisation of the civil service has over the decades
has to be addressed, issues just as consequential to undermined merit and professionalism, corroded
the country’s economic progress and future. This service morale, eroded its authority and sapped its
means investment in human capital. Failure to do capacity to efficiently deliver public services
so has already left the country with rising poverty, Postponed reforms have further contributed to the
sharply deteriorating social indicators and at the decline in the quality of the civil service and
bottom of global human development rankings — weakened state capacity. As a result, the state’s basic
a situation the World Bank calls a “silent, deep functions to tax, maintain law and order and to
human capital crisis.” educate have all been adversely affected. It is also
Unde­rinvestment has meant around 40pc of responsible for the long-term decline in public
Pakistanis are still illiterate, over 20 million school- confidence in government institutions, as reflected in
age children are out of school, poverty has risen to successive opinion surveys. Institutional
almost 40pc and health indicators including strengthening and civil service reform must therefore
malnutrition levels remain grim. Economic progress be an integral part of the government’s agenda of
can only be predicated on a solid educational base. turning the economy around, ensuring effective
This requires a long-term plan to widen the policy implementation and improving overall
coverage and improve the quality of education. But governance.
it can no longer be postponed especially because of
Pakistan’s demographic structure and youth bulge. Focusing on these pivotal issues will require the
Unless the scale and quality of education is government to avoid getting entangled in
expanded young people with no education or skills confrontational politics against its opponents. That
will face a jobless and hopeless future and a life of means a conscious effort to break from an
poverty. unedifying past which has seen endless government-
opposition confrontations and distracted from the
Population planning has rarely figured in any job of governance. In fact, to establish a stable and
government’s priorities for many decades. predictable environment the government should aim
Pakistan’s population of 242m makes it the world’s to work democracy in a consensual way by the
fifth most populous nation with the annual growth display of tolerance and accommodation of views
rate of 2.5pc among the highest in the region. This other than its own. The federal nature of the polity
has far-reaching economic and social consequences. makes this imperative especially as the electoral
With youth constituting 64pc of the population outcome may leave some provinces in the hands of
under 30, it means almost 4m young people join the political parties different from the one controlling the
working-age population every year. This in turn centre. In any case democracy cannot be limited to
requires over a million new jobs to be created the ballot box. It should determine how the country
annually. The confluence of demographics, is governed between elections.
economic stagnation and persisting education and @Dawn
gender gaps acts as a significant obstacle to
economic development and confronts Pakistan with
the spectre of social instability. Reform of the
institutional machinery of state should also be
among important issues on the next government’s
agenda. The eroding capacity of the institutions of
governance imposes obvious constraints on the
exercise of power and ability to execute policies.
22
 SPOILING PEACE
Najy Benhassine | Martin Raiser

W
HAT if the doors of Prime Minister House
had opened for the Baloch protesters
demanding an end to enforced disappearances and
extrajudicial killings, and what if the president of the
Islamic Republic of Pakistan had given them a
chance to share their painful stories? Wouldn’t this
have been a substantial confidence-building measure
for a province suffering from insurgency, terrorism,
bad governance, and economic crisis for decades?

The victims’ families — currently camped out in the open in the midst of the Islamabad winter — had come for
justice and needed empathetic treatment from the state. They were given a brutal reception by the police and
heard spiteful remarks from caretakers in the government. If the caretakers’ response to the protesters is taken as
the response of Pakistan’s institutions, it can only be interpreted as a sign that the centre remains unwilling to
rethink its strategy for dealing with Balochistan. If that is the case, how does one interpret the efforts by the
security establishment to open a dialogue with Baloch society, especially its youth? Either the state institutions
are confused, or they have been trapped by those who seek to spoil peace. Stedman’s theory of the spoiler
problem in peace processes can help shed more light on this situation.

The theory is a pillar in conflict Each spoiler is a distinct entity, and as ‘inside’ spoilers use covert
studies: it defines spoilers as leaders Stedman identifies four key challenges tactics, while ‘outside’ ones
and parties who believe that an in managing spoilers: position (inside resort to overt violence. In short,
emerging peace threatens their vs outside), number, goal type (limited, the Stedman theory can be
power, interests, and worldview. greedy, total), and locus (leadership vs described by thinking of a peace
Like all ordinary Pakistanis, he followers). These factors nfluence how process as a fragile bridge being
Baloch simply yearn for respect. spoilers disrupt peace processes, erected over a chasm of conflict.

P eace process as a fragile bridge being erected

over a chasm of conflict.
The spoilers are shadowy players who, driven by
various motives, are determined to topple that
bridge before it is complete. The conflict in
Balochistan is multifaceted, and the state and
society are still struggling to find a strong bond for
cohesion. In state policy, the province is
considered a special case in all respects —
23
from governance to resource distribution and Spoilers not only destroy peace processes, but they
political empowerment to security; everything has also fail their patrons and create hurdles in the way
created a class of cronies. of any effort for reconciliation and cohesion. They
The cronies are from diverse backgrounds, articulate the situation in a way that holds the key
including state institutions, the political and tribal to peace and stability. Balochistan’s simmering
elite, religious clergy, bureaucracy, and contractors. discontent, fuelled by long-standing grievances, has
They seek power and money from the crisis: defied repeated attempts at reconciliation. The state
resolving the conflict is never in their interest. The institutions have been experimenting with a host of
state’s interest lies in stability, and institutions measures to address the crisis, including giving
believe in maintaining the status quo. They see amnesty. If we look deeper, the spoilers, who have
factors and actors challenging their order with somehow become ‘custodians’ of the peace process,
suspicion. The state relies on the wisdom of its can easily be identified. It is due to them that
cronies, and it fears dialogue with actors who do not nothing changes. changes. They spoilt the Aghaz-i
agree with its worldview -Haqooq-i-Balochistan
and policies. If political package during the
compulsions build Pakistan Peoples Party
pressure to widen government (2008-13).
interactions with other The PML-N
stakeholders, the spoilers government (2013-18)
from the crony club start followed in the same
sabotaging the process. footsteps after making
The reason is simple: reconciliation with
Stedman identified their Baloch insurgent
greed and the fear of leaders a clause of the
losing the advantages National Action Plan,
they enjoy behind their announced in January 2
destructive tendencies. The worst aspect of the o2015. The PTI government was no different in its
process is that they advocate using coercive approach. The security institutions also attempted
measures and continue constructing and widening to engage in a broader dialogue with the Baloch
their definition of ‘enemy’. people, especially its youth. However, nothing really
For spoilers, all those who disagree with their worked. The reasons for these failures are also well-
policies, narratives, and worldview fall in the enemy known, as is how the spoilers dismantled each of
category. This is interesting because the cronies these initiatives. Balochistan demands two crucial
themselves come from varied ethnic, religious, tribal, things: first, addressing the issue of missing persons,
and social classes. They construct an exclusive and and second, holding free and fair elections in the
dichotomous definition of patriotism through which province. The state institutions seem willing to listen
only they qualify to be patriots. For example, they to all other grievances except these two.
portray themselves as modern yet oppose Baloch families protesting their loved ones’
progressive political and social ideas. They claim to disappearances demand nothing but an end to
be religiously moderate but make alliances with enforced disappearances and the establishment of
religious fanatics. Stigmatising and labelling the rule of law. Different governments have
adversaries are spoiler tactics to win the support of attempted to address these issues through various
powerful institutions. initiatives and commissions,
24
Even the superior courts have taken notice, but a definitive resolution of these challenges remains
elusive.Security institutions often seek impunity for actions taken during conflicts, but the missing persons issue
in Balochistan has become a critical human rights crisis. Spoilers have exacerbated the situation by justifying
these acts and politicising a purely human rights matter with inflammatory rhetoric and by manipulating media
resources. Like all ordinary Pakistanis, the Baloch people simply yearn for respect. The current chief justice of
the Supreme Court is known for his strong stance on human rights and has a history of visiting persecuted
journalists. A single gesture of empathy from him could have a transformative impact.
Dawn

25
 WELCOME TO THE NEW ERA OF
GLOBAL SEA POWER
Naval might is back at the heart of competition---and conflict

Oceans Matter
The oceans matter in geopolitics once
more. In the Middle East the Houthi
rebel group is menacing shipping in
the Red Sea, disrupting global trade.
On January 12th America and
Britain launched strikes on over 60
Houthi targets in Yemen. The allies
strikes are an attempt to reassert
freedom of navigation in a crucial
artery of world trade but also
dramatically expand the geographic
scope of the Middle East conflict.
Taiwan stands on the cusp of an
election that could shape its future. A
fight over the island would involve

An intense Sino-American naval war

stretching well beyond the Pacific. Sea power is back!
And in Europe the war in Ukraine
may turn on the maritime contest for China’s navy is now the world’s largest (see chart). American
the Black Sea and Crimea. There are shipyards have withered. And European navies are a shadow of
bright spots for Western navies in their former selves, having shed 28% of their submarines and 32% of
this new era. America and its allies frigates and destroyers between 1999 and 2018. These are dismaying
still possess the most advanced trends. Despite growing protectionism, the seas remain a vital
submarines. They are bound together conduit for the world economy. In 2023 the ClarkSea, a measure of
in naval alliances and partnerships the average daily earnings for the world’s shipping fleets, was 33%
unmatched by Russia or China. But above its ten-year trend. Seaborne trade was up by 3% to 12.4bn
their naval dominance is eroding. tonnes and global shipbuilding was up by 10%:
26
China produced over half of output for the first A training mission will rarely turn into a war.
time. Around 80% of global trade by volume travels Warships, by contrast, deploy for open-ended
by sea and about 50% when measured by value. voyages whose purpose can change at a moment’s
There is no shortage of reminders of what happens notice. A ship may make a friendly port call one
when that is disrupted. The covid-19 pandemic in day and shoot down Houthi missiles the next.
2020 caused chaos in supply chains, as did the Moreover, the oceans are natural environments for
blockage of the Suez Canal a year later by the Ever competition. The high seas are international waters.
Given, a container ship. Russia’s invasion of The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea
Ukraine in 2022 played havoc with the world grain (UNCLOS) grants countries a 200-nautical-mile
market. And Houthi missile strikes in the Red Sea exclusive economic zone off their coasts, yet states
in recent months—a far cry from the low-tech quibble over the details. America has not signed
pirate plague of the 2000s and 2010s—have caused UNCLOS; China disregards key provisions.
Asia-to-Europe freight costs to triple as shipping Armies in peacetime rarely encounter each other
reroutes around South Africa. amid such haze.
Maritime arteries do not just carry physical goods. At the same time, naval power is a supple tool of
TeleGeography, a data-analysis firm, counts more statecraft because it can resist swift escalation. In a
than 574 active or planned submarine telecoms crisis on land, armies can be reinforced quickly with
cables around the world, carrying 97% of global fresh troops. At sea, sending forces to a flashpoint
internet traffic. The war in Ukraine and resulting takes longer. Attribution—working out who
tensions in Europe have underscored the attacked whom—also takes longer. Naval crises are
geopolitical risk to this infrastructure. In 2022 the thus less likely to spiral into bloodshed. Mr
Nordstream 1 and 2 gas pipelines through the Baltic Patalano cites South Korea’s decision to show
Sea were blown up by unknown assailants. A year restraint after a North Korean submarine attacked
later data cables between Estonia, Finland and and sank one of its warships in 2010.
Sweden were mysteriously cut.
The relatively slow pace of naval confrontations,
If the oceans are at the heart of the international and their inherent ambiguities, help explain why
order, they are also the landscape where challenges China has used militarised fishing fleets to bully its
to that order are playing out. The crux of Sino- neighbours across the South China Sea. The most
American rivalry concerns dominance over recent example is in the Philippines, where Chinese
maritime Asia. America and its allies are joining vessels have rammed and harassed Filipino ones
hands to contest China’s claims to the South China attempting to resupply Second Thomas Shoal, a
Sea and track its growing fleet of subs and ships. small reef which China claims. On January 3rd
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is America responded by sending an aircraft-carrier to
building aircraft-carrier strike groups—its third exercise with the Philippines.
homemade carrier, the Fujian, is nearly complete— This peacetime shadow-boxing has a minatory
and increasing the size and frequency of naval drills quality. In the post-cold-war era the oceans had
around Taiwan. It is also seeking a niche in ports become a “benign conduit for the projection of
around the world, from the Solomon Islands to power”, says Nick Childs of the International
Equatorial Guinea to the United Arab Emirates. Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a think-tank in
Geopolitics at sea is distinctive in several ways, London. American and allied navies bombarded
observes Alessio Patalano of King’s College Afghanistan and Iraq at leisure. Occasionally they
London. Armies deploy to a particular place, carry hunted pirates. “Now,” says Mr Childs, “we’re
out a mission and return. back into a new age where people are having to
prepare for the potential for warfighting at sea.”
 “We’re back into a new age where people are
having to prepare for the potential for
warfighting at sea.”
China produced over half of output for this is The AUKUS deal was announced by the three
unfamiliar territory. The last officer to have served countries back in 2021. The prospective AUKUS-
in the Falklands war between Britain and class sub also shows the increasing emphasis on
Argentina, the last big naval war waged by a firepower: unlike Britain’s current attack sub, it will
NATO country, is long retired. To fight hardier have a vertical launch system (VLS), upright tubes
foes, ships are getting bigger and better armed, with many more missiles, and more advanced ones,
notes Mr Patalano, pointing to the example of the than traditional torpedo tubes. The wars in Ukraine
Italian navy’s Francesco Morosini—an offshore and the Middle East show how such arms might be
patrol vessel. These were usually small ships for put to use in a major conflict at sea. Russia has laid
coastal defence. But new ones are often the same mines in Ukrainian waters and fired missiles at
size as 1990s-era frigates and come armed with air- cargo ships berthed in Odessa. The Houthis have
defence systems and heavier weaponry. America’s fired drones and ballistic missiles at commercial
next generation of destroyers might carry one-third shipping, and have managed to board at least one
more missiles than the current ones. vessel.
The prospect of high-intensity naval warfare is also Blockade tactics are of deep interest because they
boosting the importance of submarines. Modern would be crucial to any war in Asia. “If there is a
surveillance and precision-guided weapons put large war over Taiwan,” writes Lonnie Henley, a former
surface vessels increasingly at risk, particularly China analyst for the Pentagon’s Defence Intelligence
closer to enemy shores. Submarines are far less Agency, “an extended Chinese blockade is likely to
vulnerable to this. Though their movements and determine the outcome.” A paper by Michael
missions are usually shrouded in secrecy, they can O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution in
sneak into enemy waters to collect electronic Washington models a conflict in which China
intelligence or deliver special forces, covertly track blockades the island by requiring all ships wishing
enemy fleets at sea or loiter offshore in a crisis with to visit Taiwan to dock on the Chinese mainland for
the capacity to fire volleys of missiles. America’s inspection. To understand the possible challenges
Ohio-class subs carry up to 154 cruise missiles, 26% ahead, it is worth scrutinising the paper.
more than America’s best-armed surface ship. In the scenario an American-led coalition of around
Undersea warfare is particularly important because a hundred warships attempts to break the blockade
that is where the West has its sharpest technological by clearing a shipping lane hundreds of miles to the
edge over Russia and China, both of which have east of Taiwan. It would take a month or more to
limited capacity to detect, track and target clear minefields, estimates Mr O’Hanlon, and
American and allied subs. That explains why a longer if China could deploy advanced mines
midsized power like Australia is willing to spend capable of repositioning themselves autonomously.
hundreds of billions of dollars over three decades on America or Taiwan would need to subsidise
leasing American nuclear-powered subs and insurance payments, reflag cargo ships or promise
building new ones with Britain. to reimburse owners if their vessels were sunk.
28
They would also need to find crews willing to head He warns, not one capable of penetrating a
into a war zone. “Many thousands of personnel blockade of Taiwanese ports and airfields for
would likely die,” concludes the paper. In fact, says prolonged periods: “We cannot win with the force
Mr Henley, reopening the shipping lanes east of the we are currently building.”
island would not suffice. Taiwan’s east-coast ports The ability to exploit sea power cuts both ways.
are isolated by high mountains and narrow roads Taiwan is vulnerable to blockade because it
that rely on vulnerable tunnels. Even if it were to depends on seaborne imports for energy and
destroy the Chinese fleet in battle, America would agriculture. But China also has to ship in most of its
still have to get hundreds of tonnes of cargo into oil as well as raw materials. One retaliatory option
Taiwan’s main ports in the west every day, for would be a “close-in” blockade near Chinese ports,
months, “in the face of extensive mining and hostile attacking ships and laying mines just as Russia does
fire, close to China and under conditions of Chinese against Ukraine. That, however, would present
air superiority”. Supply by air would probably be many of the same problems as an effort to open
impossible, he adds. Taiwanese ports, including the risk of nuclear
Samuel Paparo, the admiral nominated to be the escalation arising from strikes against the Chinese
next commander of The United States Indo-Pacific mainland.
Command, has insisted that America could break An easier and safer approach might be a “distant”
through a Chinese quarantine: “The US alone has blockade: stopping China-bound ships at choke
every capability to break such a blockade.” Mr points like the Strait of Hormuz or the Strait of
O’Hanlon is less sure. His calculations suggest that Malacca. Fiona Cunningham of the University of
the outcomes are “too close to call”. Mr Henley is Pennsylvania calculates that, America’s navy is
gloomier still. America has created a navy built to large enough to intercept only a quarter of
defeat a Chinese landing on Taiwan, merchant vessels passing through South-East Asian
straits.
 A blockade would take a month to put into effect, On the “master” of a vessel or the commanding
she reckons, and would need to be sustained for at officer of a warship. A USV navigating
least six months to cause shortages of civilian and autonomously has neither.
military goods in China. Sceptics argue that the military impact of USVs has
Such a blockade would demonstrate two important been hyped. Basic gunfire, well aimed, could take
aspects of sea power. One is that it relies on global many of them out. New weapons, like shipborne
alliances, just as in an earlier age it relied on global lasers, which most big navies are testing, might
empires. Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, further tilt the advantage to the defender.
Singapore and other partners in the region would Nevertheless, Captain Rowlands argues that a
have to permit America to use their waters and structural shift has taken place in the nature of
airfields, notes Ms Cunningham. The other is that naval power. “Having a navy used to be a very
the multinational nature of modern shipping poses expensive thing,” he says. “There were great
a severe challenge to would-be blockaders deciding barriers to entry. Now there aren’t. You don’t need
what to stop and what to let through. The Ever to have a baroque navy with billion-pound
Given, for instance, was Japanese-built and owned destroyers to exert influence at sea.”
but chartered by a Taiwanese company, crewed by
Indian officers and bringing goods from China to
Europe.
Blockades also show how technology is changing
naval warfare. Robotic mines can scoot around,
making them easier to lay. “A lot of blockades could
be done by uncrewed vehicles,” suggests Kevin
Rowlands, who heads the Royal Navy’s think-tank.
Cyber operations could check a ship’s Perhaps not. But in a global contest for the oceans,
documentation and route, he adds. Conversely, guerrilla raiding will not suffice. Moreover, the
Ukraine has illustrated how drones can also attack stress on larger, better-armed and costlier warships
a blockading fleet. Though Ukraine has made has led to fewer of them. The Royal Navy, which
ample use of old-fashioned anti-ship missiles, once bestrode the world’s oceans, will soon fall to a
weapons which proved their worth more than 40 paltry 16 frigates and destroyers. It has just 70 ships
years ago in the Falklands war, it has also employed in total. In the space of around one year alone,
uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs)—essentially 2022-23, the PLAN grew by around 30 ships, of
drone boats—to repeatedly strike Russian ships in which 15 were classed by the Pentagon as “major
the Black Sea and ports on the Crimean and surface combatants”. A slide from last year
Russian coast. On January 4th a Houthi USV even produced by the Office of National Intelligence,
came within a couple of miles of American warships which is a branch of the US Navy, showed China
and an assortment of merchant shipping before it having 50-55% more warships than America by
blew up. 2035.
Almost all major navies plan to operate large USV Russia’s war in Ukraine has demonstrated that
fleets in the future, alongside crewed ships. wars of attrition demand mass and scale. That is
Technology is outpacing the law. Much of the even more pronounced at sea. Fresh soldiers can be
relevant law is more than a century old, says conscripted and tanks scraped up from warehouses.
Commander Caroline Tuckett, the Royal Navy’s Such choices are not open to navies, says Mr
top adviser on international law. Even in peacetime Patalano; replacing a single warship takes three to
the UNCLOS, adopted in 1982, puts obligations— five years. Replenishment is expensive, hard and
such As rendering assistance to mariners in distress slow.
—
If a war lasts that long, America will be at a In his book on the Battle of Jutland, the indecisive
disadvantage. Chinese shipyards have a capacity of naval battle of the first world war, Andrew Gordon,
more than 23trn gross tonnes, a measure of a ship’s a historian, sought to explain what went wrong for
volume, according to American intelligence the Royal Navy. The issue, he concluded, was the
estimates. America can manage less than 100,000, “long, calm lee of Trafalgar”. Britain’s naval victory
though its allies Japan and South Korea would help over Napoleon in 1805 gave way to a long period of
close the gap somewhat. America’s navy suffers from complacency and drift. In 1916 none of Britain’s
“a huge disconnect” between what it needs and what admirals had waged a major war. Command of the
it has persuaded Congress and American taxpayers seas was taken for granted among the military elite.
to fund, says Emma Salisbury of Birkbeck College in That resonates today.
London. She notes that the British navy’s share of “You’re seeing the long, calm lee of the second world
the defence budget has remained steady, at about war,” warns Mr Childs. The churning waters of the
one-third, for 50 years. Black Sea, Red Sea and South China Sea suggest a
Competing in an age of sea power will require not storm now approaches instead
just larger navies and the capacity to build them but An earlier version of this article mistakenly said
also a change in mindset. Diplomacy will have to Samuel Paparo had been nominated as America’s
focus on ports, maritime alliances and trade routes. next navy chief. He was actually nominated as the
next commander of the United States Indo-Pacific
Sailors will need to be recruited and trained in far
Command.
larger numbers. America will have to revive its
merchant marine fleet to have any hope of moving
@ The Economist
sufficient troops and equipment in a Pacific war.

31
 PAKISTAN’S

Maleeha Lodhi
AFGHAN
PREDICAMENT
The core issue at the heart of tensions
between the two countries is still unresolved.
WHILE engagement continues between Pakistani
officials and Taliban authorities the core issue at the
heart of tensions between the two countries is nowhere
near resolution.
Over the past year, relations have become increasingly
strained as Pakistan’s security concerns about the
outlawed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), based in
Afgha­nistan, have not elicited a meaningful response
from Kabul. Pakistan’s repeated public warnings to the
Taliban about the consequences of TTP’s cross-border
attacks seemed to have little effect.
When the Taliban returned to power in August 2021,
Islamabad hoped this would help Pakistan secure its
western border. But this expectation was not met.
Instead, there was a marked escalation in border
tensions and terrorist attacks targeting Pakistan’s
security forces. Successive reports by the UN Security
Council’s Analytical Support and Sanctions
Monitoring Team found the “TTP benefitted the most
of all the foreign extremist groups in Afghanistan from
the Taliban takeover”.

Pakistan’s own assessment, contained in a leaked defence ministry report last May, was similar. The report said
that Kabul’s unwillingness to act against the TTP and its regrouping in Afghanistan after the Taliban’s
assumption of power posed a growing threat to Pakistan’s security.
Meanwhile statements by the military voiced serious concerns about “the safe havens and liberty of action
available to the TTP in Afghan­istan”. In July, Army Chief General Asim Munir warned of an “effective
response” by the country’s security forces if attacks continued from Afghanistan. Other Pakistani officials asked
Kabul to choose between the TTP and Pakistan. The surge in terrorist activities in 2023 led to a significant rise
in the casualties of security personnel, which hit an eight-year high.
32
 This left Islamabad increasingly frustrated. Attacks All this amounted to nothing especially as this was
by TTP became more audacious after the collapse accompanied by Taliban leaders’ ‘advice’ that
of its ceasefire with the government in November Pakistan should revive negotiations with the TTP.
2022. The short-lived ceasefire was itself a This in fact proved to be a turning point urging
misguided and futile attempt by the Pakistani Islamabad to rethink its Afghan policy.
authorities to end the armed group’s 14-year war on Against this backdrop Pakistani authorities began
Pakistan. to shift course and adopted a tougher policy
A wave of violence followed. In one of the worst towards Kabul. Any talks with TTP were firmly
incidents of terrorism, the TTP attacked a mosque rejected. A number of actions followed, designed to
in Peshawar’s police lines in January 2023, which mount pressure on the Taliban leadership and raise
claimed nearly a hundred lives and shook the the costs of its non-cooperation on TTP.
country. Then too dire warnings were issued by They included the decision to deport tens of
Pakistani officials to the Taliban authorities. thousands of undocumented Afghans from the
country and substantial change in regulations
governing transit trade by imposition of a ban on
many import items from Pakistan.
(which led to thousands of stranded containers that
were prevented from going to Afghanistan.)
Islamabad also intensified public criticism of Kabul,
accusing it of harbouring Pakistan’s enemies. All
this showed that Islamabad was prepared to deploy
several levers to pressure the Taliban.
In response, Kabul indicated its keenness to mend
ties with Islamabad while urging it to decouple
trade from terrorism and desist from forcing it to
But to little avail. Several rounds of talks and take actions under pressure. The recent visit of an
multiple interactions with Taliban officials last year Afghan delegation to Pakistan marked an effort to
produced no outcome. In these talks Taliban reengage on issues of priority for both sides at a
leaders offered assurances about restraining the time when a regular meeting of the joint
TTP but asked for time to accomplish this. They coordination committee was also due.
also argued that containing TTP was a question of Led by Kandahar Governor Mullah Sherin
their capacity and not commitment. But Akhund, reputed to be a close confidante of
Islamabad’s patience was beginning to wear thin. Taliban supreme leader Mullah Hibatullah
A high-level delegation was dispatched to Kabul in Akhundzada, the delegation was deemed as a
February 2023 to convey Pakistan’s red line on serious effort to defuse tensions. The Afghan
terror attacks from Afghan soil and secure a firm delegation’s ‘asks’ included the release of containers
commitment from Kabul to rein in TTP and deny it among other trade issues and a slowing down of the
the sanctuary its fighters enjoy there. In these repatriation process for the winter months. The
parleys Taliban leaders apparently asked for Pakistani side made it clear that movement on the
financial help, ostensibly to disarm and resettle TTP core issue of TTP was essential to address other
fighters, estimated to be around 5,000, away from issues and that patience on that count had already
the border with Pakistan. run out.

33
AFrom accounts of the exchanges on TTP it did not appear any progress was made on this issue. As in the past,
the Afghan side asked for more time to deal with TTP citing winter as an impediment this time. It also said it
would shift TTP members away from the border but that too would start some months from now.
In playing for time and not setting out any plan of action to deal with TTP, this again raised the question of the
Taliban’s seriousness. That Mullah Sherin offered to take Pakistan’s message back to the Taliban chief was
about the only outcome from the parleys on TTP. Pakistani officials see this as a test in coming months of the
top Taliban leadership’s intentions. They say the jury is out on whether it will change course and address the
issue. But then the jury has been out for quite some time.
The key question is what are Pakistan’s options if the Taliban show continued unwillingness to act against the
TTP. There are no easy answers as there are limits to the leverage Pakistan can use in a coercive approach
without risking a rupture in relations, which it would want to avoid.

12 FEB to
18 FEB

34
 Learning from the
cooperative dynamics
between Canada and
the US, India and
Pakistan have the

Canada-US Trade
opportunity to
strengthen their ties.

Partnership: A close bond between

Canada and the US
Model For has produced
economic stability.
Pakistan And
India Zahid Hussain

Canada and the United States share the longest “Geography has made us neighbours. History has
land border in the world, about 9,000km long. made us friends. Economics has made us partners, and
There are no walls, fences or barbwires along the necessity has made us allies. Those whom God has so
border. No soldiers are deployed to defend the joined together, let no man put asunder.” Those
border. However, civilian law enforcement powerful four words – neighbors, friends, partners,
personnel on both sides monitor the border to and allies – have since become the four pillars on
ensure that people cross the border through legal which the relationship structure between the two
crossing points only. Survey markers mark most nations has only further solidified. The border runs
of the length of the border only. The two nations through all types of terrains: the Great Lakes, the
have lived harmoniously for more than two Saint Lawrence Seaway, and other bodies of water.
centuries. In a 1961 address before the Canadian There are no disputes between the two countries
parliament, President John F. Kennedy famously regarding borders.
said:
35
A bi-nation International Boundary Commission Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and
deals with matters relating to marking and Five Eyes, an intelligence-sharing agreement, which
maintaining the boundary, and the International was originally between the US and the UK.
Joint Commission deals with issues concerning the Australia and New Zealand also joined later. Both
management of boundary waters. the US and Canada are also NATO members
Canada and the US are each other’s largest trading because of their exposure to the North Atlantic
partners. In 2022, the total trade volume between Ocean. Despite its close relationship with the much
the two countries was about $960 billion or more bigger and more powerful partner, Canada has
than $2.6 billion each day of the year. Most of this been able to maintain its sovereignty over
trade flows through more than 100 land border international matters and does not always follow
crossings across the length of the border. On any the US' lead on international affairs. For example,
given day, one can see long lines of trucks on both in 2002, despite pressure from the Bush
sides of a border crossing, waiting to be processed to administration, Canada declined to join the US-led
cross the border. The coalition to invade Iraq.
trade volume has grown By any measure, the
President John F. Kennedy famously said:
so much that both close bond between
governments are under
“Geography has made us Canada and the US has
pressure from the neighbours produced economic
trucking industry to build History has made us friends. stability, prosperity, and
additional crossings to Economics has made us security for both
ease congestion at the partners, and necessity has countries within the
border. In addition, secure borders of North
made us allies. Those whom
thousands of citizens of America. Moreover, for
both countries cross the God has so joined together, let more than two centuries
border daily for business, no man put asunder.” the peace between the
work, or pleasure. two countries has not
Trade disputes do arise now and then. They are obroken. Now imagine replacing the names of the
dealt with through the dispute resolution two countries in the above partnership with
mechanisms built into the trade agreements. Pakistan and India. Imagine if, in addition to just
Occasionally, higher levels of officials and politicians being neighbours, Pakistan and India also become
get involved in resolving contentious issues. There is friends, trading partners, and allies to ensure
close cooperation between the two countries in regional security. If this relationship becomes half
many sectors, such as academic research, science as good as that of Canada and the US, the people
and technology, public health, pharmaceuticals, law of both nations win big time. Pakistan and India,
enforcement, and military. A bi-national too, are neighbours sharing a land border more
organization, North American Aerospace Defense than 3,000km long. There is a long history between
Command or NORAD, based in Colorado, the people of the two countries, as they were part of
monitors and controls North American airspace for British India and lived together before the partition
any threats. For Canada, its close relationship with in 1947. Many communities on both sides of the
its much bigger and more powerful neighbour has border share the same ethnicity, culture, traditions,
paid off on the international stage in terms of its and language. Together, they suffered the brutalities
membership, with US support, in several important and injustices of British colonialism.
blocs such as G7, G20,
36
For more than 75 years since the partition, the two On the other side of the border to solve common
countries have remained at odds on several issues problems. Imagine journalists, writers, and
involving borders, sharing of waters, and intellectuals engaging with their counterparts on the
interference in each other's affairs. Three generations other side. Imagine cricket teams of both countries
have grown up on both sides, distrusting each other. visiting each other to continue the friendly rivalry
So much has been lost because of this standoff, and that is the hallmark of any international cricket
nothing has been gained. tournament. The possibilities are endless.
Together, they can form a powerful economic bloc Some naysayers might seem sceptical about this,
of 1.4 billion people in India and 250 million in saying there is just too much bad blood between the
Pakistan, rivalling that of Canada and the US. two nations, and nothing will happen unless the
Unlike Western countries, where their economies other side first does this or that. But if they consider
face serious growth challenges in the future because the alternative, which is simply the continuation of
of the ageing population, more than 65 percent of the status quo for an indefinite period, they will
the population in both Pakistan and India is below likely come around and make an effort. For the
the age of 35. This provides a reliable and steady most contentious issues, it is fine to agree to disagree
pool of human capital for the workforce and with each other and park them for future
economic growth. consideration. As the Canada-US partnership has
Trade between Pakistan and India has been demonstrated, some issues are relatively easier to
minimal and on an ad hoc basis. In 2018, before the resolve as friends than foes.
trade was suspended between the two countries, the What is needed is bold and courageous leadership in
total bilateral trade volume was a paltry $2 billion or both countries to take the initiative. General
less than half a percent of their combined global elections are coming up soon in both countries – so
trade volume. In comparison, Canada-US bilateral the timing is right for the voters to demand from the
trade volume in 2022 was more than 10 percent of political parties how they intend to normalize the
their combined global trade volume. Both countries relations between the two neighbours. Youth, who
are missing out on significant markets with easy comprise more than 65 percent of the population,
access on the other side of the border. are in particular fed up with the never-ending and
The resumption of trade can give a significant boost meaningless acrimony between the two nations.
to their respective economies. As recently as in They want to look forward, not backwards.
September 2023, a major trade group based in @Friday Times
Amritsar, Punjab, urged the Union government in
New Delhi to reopen the trade route through Attari
crossing and resume trade with Pakistan, as the
local businesses have been suffering since the trade
was suspended a few years ago. Investment
opportunities may also open up for businesses on
either side of the border. Imagine trucks rolling
through the Wagah or Attari border crossing points
and Sikh pilgrims routinely travelling to their
shrines on either side of the border. magine young
scientists and engineers in academic institutions
collaborating with their counterparts,

37
 Artificial
Intelligence &
The Future of
Humans
Experts say the rise of artificial
intelligence will make most people better
off over the next decade, but many have
concerns about how advances in AI will
affect what it means to be human, to be
productive and to exercise free will.

BY JANNA ANDERSON AND LEE RAINIE

Digital life is augmenting human capacities and Sophisticated analytics and pattern recognition,
disrupting eons-old human activities. Code-driven visual acuity, speech recognition and language
systems have spread to more than half of the translation. They said “smart” systems in
world’s inhabitants in ambient information and communities, in vehicles, in buildings and utilities,
connectivity, offering previously unimagined on farms and in business processes will save time,
opportunities and unprecedented threats. As money and lives and offer opportunities for
emerging algorithm-driven artificial intelligence individuals to enjoy a more-customized future.
(AI) continues to spread, will people be better off Many focused their optimistic remarks on health
than they are today? Some 979 technology care and the many possible applications of AI in
pioneers, innovators, developers, business and diagnosing and treating patients or helping senior
policy leaders, researchers and activists answered citizens live fuller and healthier lives. They were
this question in a canvassing of experts conducted also enthusiastic about AI’s role in contributing to
in the summer of 2018. The experts predicted broad public-health programs built around
networked artificial intelligence will amplify massive amounts of data that may be captured in
human effectiveness but also threaten human the coming years about everything from personal
autonomy, agency and capabilities. They spoke of genomes to nutrition. Additionally, a number of
the wide-ranging possibilities; that computers these experts predicted that AI would abet long-
might match or even exceed human intelligence anticipated changes in formal and informal
and capabilities on tasks such as complex decision- education systems.
making, reasoning and learning,
38
 TYet, most experts, regardless of whether they are Extent that most people will not be better off than
optimistic or not, expressed concerns about the the way things are today?” Overall, and despite the
long-term impact of these new tools on the essential downsides they fear, 63% of respondents in this
elements of being human. All respondents in this canvassing said they are hopeful that most
non-scientific canvassing were asked to elaborate on individuals will be mostly better off in 2030, and
why they felt AI would leave people better off or 37% said people will not be better off.
not. Many shared deep worries, and many also A number of the thought leaders who participated
suggested pathways toward solutions. The main in this canvassing said humans’ expanding reliance
themes they sounded about threats and remedies on technological systems will only go well if close
are outlined in the accompanying table. attention is paid to how these tools, platforms and
Specifically, participants were asked to consider the networks are engineered, distributed and updated.
following: Some of the powerful, overarching answers included
“Please think forward to the year 2030. Analysts those from:
expect that people will become even more dependent Sonia Katyal, co-director of the Berkeley Center for
on networked artificial intelligence (AI) in complex Law and Technology and a member of the
digital systems. Some say we will continue on the inaugural U.S. Commerce Department Digital
historic arc of augmenting our lives with mostly Economy Board of Advisors, predicted, “In 2030,
positive results as we widely implement these the greatest set of questions will involve how
networked tools. Some say our increasing dependence perceptions of AI and their application will
on these AI and related systems is likely to lead to influence the trajectory of civil rights in the future.
widespread difficulties. Questions about privacy, speech, the right of
Our question: By 2030, do you think it is most likely assembly and technological construction of
that advancing AI and related technology systems personhood will all re-emerge in this new AI
will enhance human capacities and empower them? context, throwing into question our deepest-held
That is, most of the time, will most people be better beliefs about equality and opportunity for all. Who
off than they are today? Or is it most likely that will benefit and who will be disadvantaged in this
advancing AI and related technology systems will new world depends on how broadly we analyze
lessen human autonomy and agency to such an these questions today, for the future.”
39
 Catching Up to AI:

ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON, BRYAN JOHNSON MARINA GORBIS

director of the MIT Initiative Founder and CEO of Kernel, a Executive director of the
on the Digital Economy and leading developer of Institute for the Future,
author of “Machine, Platform advanced neural interfaces

He said, “AI and related He said, “I strongly believe Marina said, “Without
technologies have already the answer depends on significant changes in our
achieved superhuman whether we can shift our political economy and data
performance in many areas, economic systems toward governance regimes [AI] is
and there is little doubt that prioritizing radical human likely to create greater
their capabilities will improvement and economic inequalities, more
improve, probably very staunching the trend toward surveillance and more
significantly, by 2030. human irrelevance in the programmed and non-
face of AI. human-centric interactions.

Judith Donath, author of “The Social Machine, “We already face an ungranted assumption when
Designs for Living Online” and faculty fellow at we are asked to imagine human-machine
Harvard University’s Berkman Klein Center for ‘collaboration.’ Mark Surman, executive director of
Internet & Society, commented, “By 2030, most the Mozilla Foundation, responded, “AI will
social situations will be facilitated by bots – continue to concentrate power and wealth in the
intelligent-seeming programs that interact with us in hands of a few big monopolies based on the U.S.
human-like ways. and China. Most people – and parts of the world –
Andrew McLaughlin, executive director of the will be worse off.”
Center for Innovative Thinking at Yale University, William Uricchio, media scholar and professor of
previously deputy chief technology officer of the comparative media studies at MIT, commented,
United States for President Barack Obama and “AI and its related applications face three problems:
global public policy lead for Google, wrote, “2030 is development at the speed of Moore’s Law,
not far in the future. My sense is that innovations development in the hands of a technological and
like the internet and networked AI have massive economic elite, and development without benefit of
short-term benefits, along with long-term negatives an informed or engaged public. The public is
that can take decades to be recognizable. Oscar reduced to a collective of consumers awaiting the
Gandy, emeritus professor of communication at the next technology. Whose notion of ‘progress’ will
University of Pennsylvania, responded, prevail? @ Pew Research Center 40
IN CONVERSATION
WITH FAIZAN
2nd Position PMS-13

Faizan Akhter

First, describe your educational background, How helpful did you find CEPI during your
please. What were you like in your childhood? preparation? And how was your experience at the
Answer: I have a Bachelor in Law from LUMS. Institute?
Previously I was a pre-medical student at Answer: CEPI was instrumental in both my written
Government College Lahore. I have always been and interview preparation. I studied Pakistan Affairs
an avid reader since childhood. and Current Affairs from Sir Moazzam and also
What aspect of PMS appealed to you the most? gave mocks at CEPI before my PMS attempt. Mock
Answer: The fact that you get to hold important interviews at CEPI were also quite helpful during
administrative positions within your home my interview preparation as they helped me hone
province. my speaking and pressure-handling skills.
What would you say were your certain personality : What is your primary goal in life that pushed you
traits that helped you in acing the PMS exam? towards PMS?
Answer: Hard work and my resolve to remain Answer: Being in a position where I had a secure
consistent in pursuit of my goals. career and the opportunity to work in diverse
administrative positions.

: What would you say were your certain : What is your primary goal in life that pushed
personality traits that helped you in acing the you towards PMS?
PMS exam? Answer: Being in a position where I had a
Answer: Hard work and my resolve to secure career and the opportunity to work in
remain consistent in pursuit of my goals. diverse administrative positions.
: What do you think is a tougher nut to crack; :"PMS/CSS yaa baher ke mulk ke nokri" is a
compulsories or optionals? Or interview, for common question that our youth is asking these
that matter? days. How would you respond to this?
Answer: In competitive exams every mark Answer: There is nothing like working in
matters. Therefore, from the Essay to GK your own country therefore if you have the
and optional and eventually the option to go for CSS/PMS.
psychological and final interview every : What is one advice that you would like to give
component must be given due weightage. to your younger self?
Personally, the GK paper was the most Answer: Take care of your mental health,
challenging for me and I gave extra your well-being is more important than
attention to it to ensure that I did well in it. everything else.

41
How do you think should a fresh candidate start How did you prepare for English Essay and how did
preparing for the PMS exam, right from scratch? you tackle Précis and Composition Paper? Does rote
Ans: They should first start reading the learning help?
newspaper and have a grip on Basic English. Answer: For the essay, I bifurcated the preparation
Subsequently, they should devise a road map on into two halves. Firstly I used to gather data on any
how much time they require to prepare for the important theme for an entire week and write an
exam. Accordingly, they should split this time essay on that theme on Sundays. Subsequently, I
into preparing the compulsories, the optional started writing on general unseen topics to improve
and then revision. Candidates should also my brain storming skills. For preci, I practiced all
develop clarity of thought as to why they are past papers of both CSS and PMS. In my opinion
appearing in the exam and have a motivation Essay and precis writing is a skill that ought to be
that drives them throughout this journey. learnt through practice. Therefore, rot learning does
not help in acing these papers.
How important is paper presentation in written to How did you respond to de-motivation and naysayers?
get maximum marks? Answer: There is no need to respond. Keep yourself
Answer: In competitive exams, good focused on your goals.
presentation is essential to secure maximum If you could go back in time and change one thing
marks. Therefore, candidates need to have a about your PMS journey, what would it be?
neat and easily readable paper with proper Answer: Staying in isolation for long periods and
headings, subheadings, and relevant quotations not socializing was a mistake that I should certainly
to make their paper stand out. have avoided.

Some Suggestions on:

Optional Subject Selection- Optional subjects should be selected keeping three criteria in mind:
1. Your Interest/Aptitude
2. Your Background
3. The Scoring trend
In my opinion, the first two factors are the most important since the scoring trend is highly volatile
and unpredictable. Therefore, candidates should focus on mastering the paper-attempting technique
of a subject. If you write well you will get good marks irrespective of what the trend for that year is.
Notes-making- I personally believe in making long notes. Have a separate register for each subject.
First make a rough sketch of the domains that you are going to cover either digitally or on a rough
register. Then, note it down on your main neat register for the subject such that it is easily readable.
Your notes need to be such that they will remain the only reference point that you will use to revise a
topic. I did not make short notes but if the candidates feel like they will have difficulty in revising
their notes then they can prepare short notes as well.
Revision of subjects- During revision, candidates need to just be confident that they know the gist
of a topic and a few relevant quotations/ distinctive material on it. Revise your notes at least 3-4
times. Rest even the toppers don’t remember everything they have prepared. The key is to just
develop the skill set and have enough material to write 7-8 pages on a given question within 30-35
minutes.

42
 Joining the civil service has always been my
Who motivated you to pursue PMS?
personal ambition
No. of attempts 01
Your qualification BA-LLB
Major subjects in Graduation and Master’s
English
degree
Alma Mater LUMS

Schooling Medium English

Your Study Routine 6 Hours of Study

Worst thing about PMS? You have to write 5 subjective questions.

Best thing about PMS? You get to stay in your home province

Hobbies & Extracurricular Achievements Playing chess and debating

Favorite Personality Elon Musk

10 Lessons for a post-pandemic world by

Favourite Book
Fareed Zakaria
Success is not final, failure is not fatal. It is the
Favourite Quote
courage to continue that counts
Hopefully in a good administrative position in
Where do you see yourself in 10 years? the country where I can make a positive
impact

Your Secret of Success Hard work, right guidance, and consistency

Your Inspiration Mr. Naveed Shahzad Mirza

Anything lifestyle or behavioral change that you'd like to advise to the new aspirants?
Incorporate some healthy activity like running, working out or a sport in your daily routine.
How was your Interview Experience?
My interview spanned around 20 minutes. The panel asked around 35 questions out of which I
answered around 25. In my opinion, the key to my success in the interview was honesty. I answered
the questions that I knew crisply and was honest in admitting my ignorance when I did not know
the answer to a question.
Candidates need to realize that the interview is a test of their personality and not of their knowledge.
Therefore, they need to remain calm and composed even if they drop questions because the main
thing the panel tests is your composure and pressure handling.

42
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Success Stories of CEPI!
Talha Rafeeq, 1st Position, PAS, CSS 2022
Out of all the interviews I have given, the
one at CEPI challenged me the most. Not only did it
serve as a wake up call for my preparation, but I
learnt the art of maintaining composure and clarity of
thought when one is being grilled by the Interview
panel. For this contribution to my preparation, I shall
remain grateful to CEPI.

Zia Ullah Gondal, 7th Position, PMS - 2021

My experience with CEPI proved to be beneficial for
me in both my written and interview, especially the
analytical skills that I learnt from Sir Moazzam Lodhi
& Dr. Noor ul Huda.

Saad Rehman, 44th Position, PAS, CSS 2022

The mentorship of Sir Moazzam Lodhi & Ma'am Noor
is exceptional, super talented. The grasp she has on
knowledge and the way she moulds it into a beautiful
form is amazing.

Aasia Munir, 20th Position, PMS 2021

I remember mentioning facts and figures in my paper
that I learnt from Dr. Noor’s lectures. Moreover, I
travelled especially from Rawalpindi to Lahore to give
my mock interviews to Dr. Noor. She helped me a lot.
She not only pointed out my mistakes, but also told
my strengths and by working on these qualities, I got
allocated in my first attempt.

Hassan Nawaz, 37th Position, PCS, CSS 2022

CEPI is the best institution that one can recommend
to all CSS and PMS aspirants, be it for Compulsories,
Optionals, Interview or Written Evaluations. The
mentors would take your pain like no other. The
whole environment is extremely professional and full
of excellence required to succeed in CSS/PMS.
Success Stories of CEPI!
Waqas Anjum, 26th Position, PMS 2022
My experience with CEPI has been excellent. All the
teachers are well-equipped to help you in acing your
goal. Revision sessions, especially mock exams,
proved to be fruitful in my preparation.

Hafsa, Pakistan Customs Service, CSS 2022

My experience at CEPI for Elite Mentorship Program
of Compulsory Subjects has been great! Definitely I
will recommend CEPI to other aspirants!

Ramish Chaudhry, 30th Position, PMS 2022

I must say, CEPI is indeed one of the best institutes
for preparation of CSS & PMS! I highly recommend
CEPI to all the aspirants for the highest quality
mentorship in both the written and interview exams!

Ayesha Afzal, Postal Group, CSS 2022

The highly rigorous regime of assessments with Sir
Moazzam & Ma'am Noor made it possible for me to be
on the crest of wave in front of FPSC panel. I am
deeply indebted to the faculty at CEPI for their
relentless efforts and sound guidance.

Hafsa Ijaz, Railways Group, CSS 2022

Hands down, you will find the mentors at CEPI most
honest and sincere. My session with CEPI was
amazing. It was up to the mark. I learned more than
expected.

M. Rizwan, PAAS, CSS 2022

I am highly indebted to the efforts of Ma’am Noor.
She is a gem who is outshining with the zeal of Sir
Moazzam Lodhi.Great services are being delivered
under her graceful guidance. A huge thanks!
 THE STARS
ND TH
2 29
ST
1

Faizan Akhter Aliza

Zeeshan Ahmed

In a galaxy full of people, these are the stars that shine the brightest!

CEPI PAKISTAN
 172, A-1 Block, Gulberg III,Lahore

Under the Mentorship of

Dr. Noor ul
ree
Huda
5th Position, CSS 2021
&
Moazzam Khan
Lodhi
Veteran CSS Mentor

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