Problem # 9.

Closing Stock Prices

Date(t) Date IBM INTC CSCO GE

1 9/3/2010 $127.58 $18.43 $21.04 $15.39
2 9/7/2010 $125.95 $18.12 $20.58 $15.44
3 9/8/2010 $126.08 $17.90 $20.64 $15.70
4 9/9/2010 $126.36 $18.00 $20.61 $15.91
5 9/10/2010 $127.99 $17.97 $20.62 $15.98
6 9/13/2010 $129.61 $18.56 $21.26 $16.25
7 9/14/2010 $128.85 $18.74 $21.45 $16.16
8 9/15/2010 $129.43 $18.72 $21.59 $16.34
9 9/16/2010 $129.67 $18.97 $21.93 $16.23
10 9/17/2010 $130.19 $18.81 $21.86 $16.29
11 9/20/2010 $131.79 $18.93 $21.75 $16.55
12 9/21/2010 $131.98 $19.14 $21.64 $16.52
13 9/22/2010 $132.57 $19.01 $21.67 $16.50
14 9/23/2010 $131.67 $18.98 $21.53 $16.14
15 9/24/2010 $134.11 $19.42 $22.09 $16.66
16 9/27/2010 $134.65 $19.24 $22.11 $16.43
17 9/28/2010 $134.89 $19.51 $21.86 $16.44
18 9/29/2010 $135.48 $19.24 $21.87 $16.36
19 9/30/2010 $134.14 $19.20 $21.90 $16.25
20 10/1/2010 $135.64 $19.32 $21.91 $16.36
DJ Industrials
Index
10447.93
10340.69
10387.01
10415.24
10462.77
10544.13
10526.49
10572.73
10594.83
10607.85
10753.62
10761.03
10739.31
10662.42
10860.26
10812.04
10858.14
10835.28
10788.05
10829.68
Problem # 9
Spreadsheet for Forecasting Data for the IBM
2 Period MA Forecasting Data
Date(t) Stock Price S(t) Forecast F(t) |Error|= Abs (S(t)- F(t))
1 $127.58
2 $125.95
3 $126.08 126.77 0.69
4 $126.36 126.02 0.34
5 $127.99 126.22 1.77
6 $129.61 127.18 2.44
7 $128.85 128.8 0.05
8 $129.43 129.23 0.2
9 $129.67 129.14 0.53
10 $130.19 129.55 0.64
11 $131.79 129.93 1.86
12 $131.98 130.99 0.99
13 $132.57 131.89 0.69
14 $131.67 132.28 0.6
15 $134.11 132.12 1.99
16 $134.65 132.89 1.76
17 $134.89 134.38 0.51
18 $135.48 134.77 0.71
19 $134.14 135.19 1.05
20 $135.64 134.81 0.83
Average 0.980555555555556
MAD
Note: A smoothing constant of 0.5 yield the better result because of the Value of MAD, MSE and MAP depends upon the a
Formulas
a) |Error| = Absolute Value (S(t) - f(t))
b) MAD = Average |Error|
c) MSE = Average |Error|^2
d) MAPE = Average |Error|/ (S(t)/100
e) 2 Period MA Forecast Formulas : Forecast for Period (t) = Average (Sales(t-1), Sales (t-2))
f) Exponential Forecast Formulas : Forecast for Period (t) = Forecase (t-1) +Alpha *(Sales(t-1) - Forecast (t-1))

References
Nicolas Vandeput (2019). Forecast KPIs: RMSE, MAE, MAPE & Bias. Towards Data Science
https://towardsdatascience.com/forecast-kpi-rmse-mae-mape-bias-cdc5703d242d

BYJUS (2022). Exponential Smoothing

https://byjus.com/maths/exponential-smoothing/
 Exponential Smoothing with Alpha = 0.3
|Error|^2 (|Error|/S(t))*100 Forecast F(t) |Error|= Abs (S(t) -F(t)-F(t
127.58
127.58 1.63
0.47 0.54 127.09 1.01
0.12 0.27 126.79 0.43
3.13 1.38 126.66 1.33
5.93 1.88 127.06 2.55
0 0.04 127.82 1.03
0.04 0.15 128.13 1.3
0.28 0.41 128.52 1.15
0.41 0.49 128.87 1.32
3.46 1.41 129.26 2.53
0.98 0.75 130.02 1.96
0.47 0.52 130.61 1.96
0.37 0.46 131.2 0.47
3.96 1.48 131.34 2.77
3.1 1.31 132.17 2.48
0.26 0.38 132.91 1.98
0.5 0.52 133.51 1.97
1.09 0.78 134.1 0.04
0.69 0.61 134.11 1.53
1.40333333333333 0.743333333333334 129.7665 1.54947368421053
MSE MAPE MAD
E and MAP depends upon the absolute value of forecast and stock values.

) - Forecast (t-1))
|Error|^2 (|Error|/S(t))*100

2.66 1.29
1.02 0.8
0.18 0.34
1.77 1.04
6.51 1.97
1.05 0.8
1.69 1
1.32 0.89
1.75 1.02
6.39 1.92
3.84 1.48
3.85 1.48
0.22 0.36
7.68 2.07
6.15 1.84
3.9 1.46
3.89 1.46
0 0.03
2.34 1.13
2.95842105263158 1.17789473684211
MSE MAP
Problem # 9
Spreadsheet for Forecasting Data for the INTC
2 Period MA Forecasting Data
Date(t) Stock Price S(t) Forecast F(t) |Error|= Abs (S(t)- F(t))
1 $18.43
2 $18.12
3 $17.90 18.28 0.38
4 $18.00 18.01 0.01
5 $17.97 17.95 0.02
6 $18.56 17.99 0.57
7 $18.74 18.27 0.47
8 $18.72 18.65 0.07
9 $18.97 18.73 0.24
10 $18.81 18.85 0.04
11 $18.93 18.89 0.04
12 $19.14 18.87 0.27
13 $19.01 19.04 0.02
14 $18.98 19.08 0.1
15 $19.42 19 0.43
16 $19.24 19.2 0.04
17 $19.51 19.33 0.18
18 $19.24 19.38 0.14
19 $19.20 19.38 0.18
20 $19.32 0.1
0.183333333333333
Note: A smoothing constant of 0.5 yield the better result because of the Value of MAD, MSE and MAP depends upon the a
Formulas
a) |Error| = Absolute Value (S(t) - f(t))
b) MAD = Average |Error|
c) MSE = Average |Error|^2
d) MAPE = Average |Error|/ (S(t)/100
e) 2 Period MA Forecast Formulas : Forecast for Period (t) = Average (Sales(t-1), Sales (t-2))
f) Exponential Forecast Formulas : Forecast for Period (t) = Forecase (t-1) +Alpha *(Sales(t-1) - Forecast (t-1))
References

Nicolas Vandeput (2019). Forecast KPIs: RMSE, MAE, MAPE & Bias. Towards Data Science
https://towardsdatascience.com/forecast-kpi-rmse-mae-mape-bias-cdc5703d242d

BYJUS (2022). Exponential Smoothing

https://byjus.com/maths/exponential-smoothing/
 Exponential Smoothing with Alpha = 0.3
|Error|^2 (|Error|/S(t))*100 Forecast F(t) |Error|= Abs (S(t) -F(t)-F(t
18.43
18.43 0.31
0.14 2.09 18.34 0.44
0 0.06 18.21 0.21
0 0.11 18.14 0.17
0.33 3.1 18.09 0.47
0.23 2.53 18.23 0.51
0 0.37 18.38 0.34
0.06 1.27 18.49 0.48
0 0.19 18.63 0.18
0 0.21 18.68 0.25
0.07 1.41 18.76 0.38
0 0.13 18.87 0.14
0.01 0.5 18.91 0.07
0.18 2.19 18.93 0.49
0 0.21 19.08 0.16
0.03 0.92 19.13 0.38
0.02 0.7 19.24 0
0.03 0.91 19.24 0.04
0.01 0.52 19.23 0.09
0.0616666666666667 0.967777777777778 18.672 0.268947368421053
E and MAP depends upon the absolute value of forecast and stock values. MAD

) - Forecast (t-1))
|Error|^2 (|Error|/S(t))*100

0.1 1.71
0.19 2.44
0.04 1.14
0.03 0.97
0.22 2.52
0.26 2.71
0.11 1.79
0.23 2.56
0.03 0.95
0.06 1.3
0.15 2
0.02 0.72
0 0.35
0.24 2.5
0.03 0.83
0.15 1.96
0 0.01
0 0.22
0.01 0.47
0.0984210526315789 1.42894736842105
MSE MAP
Problem # 9
Spreadsheet for Forecasting Data for the CSCO
2 Period MA Forecasting Data
Date(t) Stock Price S(t) Forecast F(t) |Error|= Abs (S(t)- F(t))
1 $21.04
2 $20.58
3 $20.64 20.81 0.17
4 $20.61 20.61 0
5 $20.62 20.63 0
6 $21.26 20.62 0.65
7 $21.45 20.94 0.51
8 $21.59 21.36 0.23
9 $21.93 21.52 0.41
10 $21.86 21.76 0.1
11 $21.75 21.9 0.15
12 $21.64 21.81 0.16
13 $21.67 21.7 0.02
14 $21.53 21.66 0.13
15 $22.09 21.6 0.49
16 $22.11 21.81 0.3
17 $21.86 22.1 0.24
18 $21.87 21.99 0.11
19 $21.90 21.87 0.03
20 $21.91 21.89 0.03
0.207222222222222
MAD
Note: A smoothing constant of 0.5 yield the better result because of the Value of MAD, MSE and MAP depends upon the a
Formulas
a) |Error| = Absolute Value (S(t) - f(t))
b) MAD = Average |Error|
c) MSE = Average |Error|^2
d) MAPE = Average |Error|/ (S(t)/100
e) 2 Period MA Forecast Formulas : Forecast for Period (t) = Average (Sales(t-1), Sales (t-2))
f) Exponential Forecast Formulas : Forecast for Period (t) = Forecase (t-1) +Alpha *(Sales(t-1) - Forecast (t-1))

References
Nicolas Vandeput (2019). Forecast KPIs: RMSE, MAE, MAPE & Bias. Towards Data Science
https://towardsdatascience.com/forecast-kpi-rmse-mae-mape-bias-cdc5703d242d

BYJUS (2022). Exponential Smoothing

https://byjus.com/maths/exponential-smoothing/
 Exponential Smoothing with Alpha = 0.3
|Error|^2 (|Error|/S(t))*100 Forecast F(t) |Error|= Abs (S(t) -F(t)-F(t
21.04
21.04 0.46
0.03 0.82 20.9 0.26
0 0 20.82 0.21
0 0.02 20.76 0.14
0.42 3.03 20.72 0.54
0.26 2.38 20.88 0.57
0.06 1.09 21.05 0.54
0.17 1.87 21.21 0.72
0.01 0.46 21.43 0.43
0.02 0.67 21.56 0.19
0.03 0.76 21.62 0.02
0 0.12 21.62 0.05
0.02 0.58 21.64 0.11
0.24 2.22 21.6 0.49
0.09 1.36 21.75 0.36
0.06 1.1 21.86 0
0.01 0.53 21.86 0.01
0 0.16 21.86 0.04
0 0.11 21.87 0.04
0.0788888888888889 0.96 21.3545 0.272631578947368
MSE MAPE MAD
E and MAP depends upon the absolute value of forecast and stock values.

) - Forecast (t-1))
|Error|^2 (|Error|/S(t))*100

0.21 2.24
0.07 1.27
0.05 1.04
0.02 0.68
0.29 2.55
0.32 2.66
0.29 2.5
0.51 3.27
0.19 1.98
0.04 0.88
0 0.11
0 0.22
0.01 0.5
0.24 2.2
0.13 1.63
0 0.01
0 0.05
0 0.17
0 0.17
0.124736842105263 1.27
MSE MAP
Problem # 9
Spreadsheet for Forecasting Data for the GE
2 Period MA Forecasting Data
Date(t) Stock Price S(t) Forecast F(t) |Error|= Abs (S(t)- F(t))
1 $15.39
2 $15.44
3 $15.70 15.42 0.29
4 $15.91 15.57 0.34
5 $15.98 15.81 0.18
6 $16.25 15.95 0.31
7 $16.16 16.12 0.04
8 $16.34 16.21 0.14
9 $16.23 16.25 0.02
10 $16.29 16.29 0
11 $16.55 16.26 0.29
12 $16.52 16.42 0.1
13 $16.50 16.54 0.04
14 $16.14 16.51 0.37
15 $16.66 16.32 0.34
16 $16.43 16.4 0.03
17 $16.44 16.55 0.11
18 $16.36 16.44 0.08
19 $16.25 16.4 0.15
20 $16.36 16.31 0.05
0.16
MAD
Note: A smoothing constant of 0.5 yield the better result because of the Value of MAD, MSE and MAP depends upon the a
Formulas
a) |Error| = Absolute Value (S(t) - f(t))
b) MAD = Average |Error|
c) MSE = Average |Error|^2
d) MAPE = Average |Error|/ (S(t)/100
e) 2 Period MA Forecast Formulas : Forecast for Period (t) = Average (Sales(t-1), Sales (t-2))
f) Exponential Forecast Formulas : Forecast for Period (t) = Forecase (t-1) +Alpha *(Sales(t-1) - Forecast (t-1))

References
Nicolas Vandeput (2019). Forecast KPIs: RMSE, MAE, MAPE & Bias. Towards Data Science
https://towardsdatascience.com/forecast-kpi-rmse-mae-mape-bias-cdc5703d242d

BYJUS (2022). Exponential Smoothing

https://byjus.com/maths/exponential-smoothing/
 Exponential Smoothing with Alpha = 0.3
|Error|^2 (|Error|/S(t))*100 Forecast F(t) |Error|= Abs (S(t) -F(t)-F(t
15.39
15.39 0.05
0.08 1.82 15.41 0.29
0.12 2.14 15.49 0.42
0.03 1.1 15.62 0.36
0.09 1.88 15.73 0.52
0 0.28 15.88 0.28
0.02 0.83 15.97 0.37
0 0.12 16.08 0.15
0 0.03 16.12 0.17
0.08 1.75 16.17 0.38
0.01 0.61 16.29 0.23
0 0.21 16.36 0.14
0.14 2.29 16.4 0.26
0.12 2.04 16.32 0.34
0 0.18 16.42 0.01
0.01 0.64 16.43 0.01
0.01 0.46 16.43 0.07
0.02 0.92 16.41 0.16
0.04 0.34 16.36 0
0.0427777777777778 0.98 16.0335 0.221578947368421
MSE MAPE MAD
E and MAP depends upon the absolute value of forecast and stock values.

) - Forecast (t-1))
|Error|^2 (|Error|/S(t))*100

0 0.32
0.09 1.88
0.17 2.62
0.13 2.26
0.27 3.22
0.08 1.71
0.14 2.28
0.02 0.93
0.03 1.02
0.14 2.27
0.05 1.41
0.02 0.87
0.07 1.61
0.11 2.03
0 0.04
0 0.09
0 0.43
0.03 0.98
0 0.01
0.0710526315789474 1.36736842105263
MSE MAP
Problem 13.
Closing Stock Prices - Linear Regression

DJ Industrials
Index Period By taking the coefficient from the o
10447.93 1 Regression equation :
10340.69 2
10387.01 3 INDEX = 10335.38 + 28.60977 Perio
10415.24 4
10462.77 5 Hence for the next three-period, th
10544.13 6
10526.49 7 Period = 21
10572.73 8 INDEX = 10335.38 + 28.60977 Perio
10594.83 9 INDEX = 10335.38 + 28.60977*(21)
10607.85 10
10753.62 11 Period = 22
10761.03 12 INDEX = 10335.38 + 28.60977 Perio
10739.31 13 INDEX = 10335.38 + 28.60977*(22)
10662.42 14
10860.26 15 Period = 23
10812.04 16 INDEX = 10335.38 + 28.60977 Perio
10858.14 17 INDEX = 10335.38 + 28.60977*(23)
10835.28 18
10788.05 19
10829.68 20

References

Flori Needle (2022). How to Use Regression Analysis to Forecast Sales: A Step-by-Step Guide. Hubspot
https://blog.hubspot.com/sales/regression-analysis-to-forecast-sales
the coefficient from the output of regression analysis , regression equation can be developed as follows,
n equation :

0335.38 + 28.60977 Period

the next three-period, the forecast is

0335.38 + 28.60977 Period

0335.38 + 28.60977*(21) = 10936.18

0335.38 + 28.60977 Period

0335.38 + 28.60977*(22) = 10964.794

0335.38 + 28.60977 Period

0335.38 + 28.60977*(23) = 10993.40
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.944576
R Square 0.892225
Adjusted R 0.885885
Standard E 57.57711
Observatio 19

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 466555.9 466555.9 140.7356 1.199E-09
Residual 17 56357.11 3315.124
Total 18 522913

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 10335.38 29.63473 348.7589 3.279E-34 10272.85 10397.9 10272.85 10397.9
1 28.60977 2.41164 11.8632 1.199E-09 23.52166 33.69789 23.52166 33.69789