UNIT 17 INDIAN TRADE POLICk

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE AND

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
Structure
17.0 Objectives
17.1 Introduction
17.2 India's Trade Policy since 1950s
17.3 Components of India's Trade Policy Reforms since 1990
17.3.1 Tariffs and Non-tariff Barriers (NTBs)
17.3.2 Institutional Setting for Trade Policy Formulation
17.3.3Export Promotion Measures
17.3.4 Exchange Rate Management
17.3.5Some highlights o f India's Trade Policy at Present
17.4 India's Trade Performance: 1950-2004
17.4.1 Trends o f Trade Shares
17.4.2 Growth of Trade
17.4.3 Composition and Direction of India's Trade
17.5 India's Trade: Strategic Considerations
17.5.1 Trade and Economic Growth
17.5.2Trade-FDI Nexus
17.5.3 Trade in Services
17.5.4 Regional Trading Arrangements (RTAs)
1 7.6 Let Us Sum Up
17.7 Key Words
17.8 Some Useful References
17.9 Answers/Hints to Check Your Progress Exercises

17.0 OBJECTIVES
The main objectives of this Unit are to provide (i) a brief historical background
of the various trade policies that India has been following since independence,
(ii) how and why trade policies have been changing over the years and
(iii) in what way such changes in trade policies are reflected in India's
economic performance. After going through this Unit, you will be able to:
learn about different kinds of trade policies that a country may have at its
disposal and what purposes do they serve;
understand the evolution of India's trade policies over the last five
decades;
discuss patterns of India's trade and how it has been changing over time;
describe the geographical direction of India's trade and its changes over
time; and
review India's strategic considerations for trade.

17.1 INTRODUCTION
The well known economist D. H. Robertson has immortalised the role of trade
in development with his famous statement that "trade is an engine of growth".
The policy makers and economists in India always took seriously trade
policies to attain development objectives. In fact, trade policies played a very
crucial role in India's planning for industrialisation.
International Trade and intervene with the trading environment of a country. You have learned in
Payments in India
Unit 4 about the major instruments of trade policy: tariffs, quotas, and
subsidies. By trading environment of a country we mean the nature of existing
trading relationships that the country in question maintains with various
countries of the world. For example, a country may decide to close it^ borders
so that no exchange of goods and services with other countries is possible. Or
else, the country may allow inflow and outflow of goods and services between
countries without any restrictions. Alternatively, a country may find it
desirable to form trading arrangements with respect to one or a group of
countries where all restrictions are removed with respect to the particular country
or the group of countries but yet maintains certain restrictions with respect to
all other countries. You have learned about such regional trading blocks in
Unit 15. These are policy issues that a country may like to consider to attain
certain aims and objectives at any given point in time. As you will understand
shortly, trade policies play important roles in economic development of a country.
It turns out that with the changes of time and the structure of the economy, the
nature of the desirable trade policies also changes.

India has used some mixtures of the above trade policy instruments to restrict
or expand its trade. India's trade policy has always been very intricately related
to its development objectives. At the dawn of India's independence, the main
objective before the country was to achieve rapid economic growth and
removal of poverty. Most economists and policy makers then thought that the
appropriate strategy of trade policy to achieve such goal should be
protectionist and hence the country had followed import-substitution strategy
of industrialisation (ISI) for rapid economic growth, which you have learned
about in Units 4, 11 and 12. Over the past five decades there has been a sea
change in India's trade policy and what was thought to be appropriate trade
policy strategy in the early days of planning has subsequently considered being
detrimental to growth and development. Thus while fifty years ago there was a
consensus among economists and policy makers that an appropriate trade policy
was one, which protected irlfant industries in the country, today there is a
consensus in favour of an export oriented trade policy.

17.2 INDIA'S TRADE POLICY SINCE 1950s

During the second and the third plan period India had adopted a very restrictive
trade policy regime for reasons as discussed below. As mentioned above, at the
time of independence Indian exports were heavily concentrated both in terms
of commodities and geographically. Three primary goods, cotton, jute and tea
accounted for almost 70 percent of India's exports and in all of these goods
India was a significant exporter so that further increase in share of world
exports would be difficult. Also almost 60 percent of the exports went to the
UK. Furthermore, there was very limited development of manufactures in the
country. In these circumstances it was believed that it would be difficult to
increase exports, both of primary and manufactured goods. In the First Plan
and the initial years of the Second Plan the government depended on its
accumulated foreign exchange reserves, the Sterling Balances, to pay for the
import of capital goods and also to finance the deficit in the government's
budget because of the increased investment. But the foreign exchange reserves
were depleted by the middle of the Second Plan precipitating a BOP crisis.
From this period till the end of the Third Plan the government depended on
 -
foreim aid. mainlv from the US and the World Bank to finance its investment
and the resulting BOP deficit. Foreign aid during the Second and Third Plans
~ ~ ~~~ . ~
Indian Trade polity:
Hlstoricai Penpertkt
oevelopmna
was about 3 percent of GDP and financed about 25 percent of India's
investment and a third of public investment.

For these reasons the government put into place a stringent QR regime to
restrict imports to the amount of foreign exchange available. Imports of only
those goods were allowed that were considered essential and were not
produced at honte' . The large BOP deficits were not sustainable and in the
Third Plan the government made policy changes to increase exports and
reduce the BOP deficit. The main change was that the government started to
subsidise exports. There were many different rates of subsidy. Also the number
of bands for levying import duties also increased. The QR regime also was
very complex. In all, India's trade policies had been very restrictive.

However, there was a growing realisation that import controls were counter
productive in the long run. Consequently, when the country faced a BOP crisis
in the early eighties because of higher oil prices there was no attempt to hrther
increase the restrictiveness of the import control regime. This was a change
from the reaction in previous BOP crises. The nineties have seen a
fundamental change in India k trade policies. This change has been
precipitated by a number of factors. Despite rapid growth the economy
remained fragile and vulnerable. The Middle East crisis of the early nineties
coupled with domestic political instability shook the confidence of foreign
lenders, and India faced a very severe BOP problem. The response to this crisis
was very different l?gm that to previous crises. Whereas previous crises had
resulted in some changes, the basic policy framework of import substituting
industrialisation behind very protective walls had been maintained.

Among the developing countries, it may be worthwhile to mention that India

was the first in initiating industrialisation but the last in trade liberalisation.
This may seem true to a large extent becausk in the First place, till the early
1980s, the pattern of trade policy in India reflected its policymakers'
preference towards export-pessimism and IS1 strategy. Second, by the first half
of 1980s, even when the importance of liberal trade policy came to be
increasingly recognised and the Indian government set up a number of Expert
Committees to look into the gamut of trade policy. Despite the valuable
recommendations of these committees, the trade policy pattern continued to be
characterised by time-worn licensing regime, which along with high tariff wall
protected the economy from external competition. Third, the impetus for trade
reforms in early 1990s was provided by global developments whereby export
promotion and trade integration became the policy objective of most of the
developing world. Fourth, specific to India's BOP crisis in 1990-91, there was
hardly any option but to embark on comprehensive economic reforms and trade
policy formed an integral part of the overall structural reform process. The
Indian trade regime was one of the most protectionist, much more than that of
other developing countries. Trade reforms as a kingpin of overall external
sector reforms were initially conditioned by the need to correct the deficiencies
that led to the balance of payments (BOP) crisis in 1991. For this,

I See Bhagwati and Desai ( 1 970) and Bhagwati and Srinivasan (1975) for a discussion of India's trade

policies.
Intetn- 'bade'and inappropriate exchange rate regime, unsustainable current account deficit and
Paynwrre la India
a rise in short term debt relative to official reserves were considered to be the
major factors responsible for the immediate crisis. Finally, there was also
international pressure in the nineties. There was therefore pressure during the
multilateral trade negotiations, known as the Uruguay Round, for India to
reduce its tariffs and quantitative restrictions.

Check Your Progress 1

1) Why did India delay its trade policy reforms?

..........................................................................................
2) Do you justify a case for trade policy reforms in India?
..........................................................................................
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3) List three main causes of BOP crisis in India in 1991.

- - - - -

17.3 COMPONENTS OF INDIA'S TRADE POLICY

REFORMS SINCE 1990
External sector reforms beginning with 1991 included dismantling of trade
restrictions along with tariff rationalisation, a move towards current account
convertibility, liberal inflows of private capital, removal of restrictions on
dividends, royalties, technical fees outflows and gradual liberalisation of
restrictions on outflows involving residents. To be more specific, the trade
policy changes included simplification of procedures and removal of
procedural bottlenecks, removal of QRs, broadening of export incentives and
export promotion schemes to a large number of non-traditional and non-
manufacturing exports, strengthening the export production base,
technological upgradation and improvement of product quality, identification
of thrust areas and thrust products, shift from direct export subsidy to indirect
promotional measures and phased removal of all BOP related QRs by 2001.
Some of the major components of evolving trade policy are explained below.

17.3.1 Tariffs and Non-tariff Barriers (NTBs)

A significant aspect of the trade reforms of the 1990s was the reduction in the
then prevailing very high import duties (over 300 percent in some cases). Since
 then, the peak rate has come down progressively from 150 percent in 1991-92" Indian Trade policy:
Historical Perspective
to 25 percent in 2003-04 and 15 percent in 2005-06 in case of non-farm goods. ,d Rment onaowentr
The government is committed to reducing tariffs to the levels comparable with
those prevailing in East Asian countries in the near future. For instance, the
weighted average irnport duties on various goods even though reduced f m
the earlier high levels are still higher in India from those of some of East Asian
countries.

As against 28.5 percent of weighted average duty in India in 2000, China had
14.7percent; Philippines, 3.8 percent; Thailand, 10.1 percent in the same year.
More so, additional customs duty in India seems to continue on p_roductsthat
attract very low basic duty. But products covered by Morrnation Technology
Agreement attract only 4 percent tax.

The most common NTBs are the restrictions or prohibitions on imports

maintained through import licensing requirements. Having been mostly
justified on BOP basis, 80 percent of tariff lines were subject to some form of
import licensing restrictions in mid-1990s. India started removing these
restrictions since 1996 and virtually there are no such restrictions any more. As
a result, the share of unrestricted producta under imports increased to more
than 95 percent in 2003 from about 61 percent in 1996. The remaining 5
percent of tariff lines are permissible under Articles XX and XXI of GATT on
the grounds of health, safety, moral conduct and essential security. More so,
theproportion of canaliaed items in total imports in value terms declined from
27 percent to 19 percent betweetr 1988-89 and 1997-98.
I

I
17.3.2 Institutional Setting for Trade Policy Formulation
While the Ministry of Commerce has the main responsibility of formulating
India's trade policy, it also seeks policy inputs fram its various autonomous
bodies such as Export Promotion Councils, Commodity Boards, IIFT, FIE0 to
boost exports.Along with its ritual of Export-Import ( E m )Policy, the Central
Government Budget also announces certain policy measures impacting upon
India's trade in particular and external sector in general. EXIM Policy over the
years, was an annual feature of the Ministry of Commerce, but in 1985, a three
yearly EXlM Policy was introduced to provide a definite focus to the trade
sector. In post-reform period, this policy was replaced by a five yearly policy in
March 1992 (EXIM Policy 1992-97) to impart greater stability and carry
forward the process of trade liberalisation.

Another milestone in institutional innovation in early 2002 was the government's

unfolding of its Medium Term Export Strategy (2002-07). This document
provided a vision for creating a stable policy environment with indicative
sector wise target, with a mission to achieve 1 percent of global trade by 2007.
In the same year, the new EXIM Policy (2002-07) was also announced, which
seeks to achieve an environment free of restrictions and controls. Synergy
between these policies/strategies is expected to realise India's strong export
potential and enhance the overall competitiveness of its exports. Further, in
August 2004, the government announced a comprehensive Foreign Trade Policy
2004-09 (FTP 2004) with the basic objective to double India's share of global
merchandise trade by 2009 and to make exports an instrument of growth and
employment generation.
I n t t m ~ t l ~ ~ ' h d e ~ dConsidering exports as a national priority, the Finance Ministry also
Payments in Indh
constituted Expert Committees on tax reforms, tax administration, customs
tariffs in post-reform ~ o dAfter. the Tax Reforms Committee headed by Raja.
J. Chelliah and its recommendations concerning tariff rates and their
dispersion announced in 1992, another committee known as Finance Ministry
Task Force (Kelkar Committee) on indirect taxation in 2002 suggested reforms
in areas related to customs tariffs, rationalisation of export promotion schemes,
trade facilitation and other changes in tax administration. (Economic Survey,
2002-03, p. 113) v'

17.3.3 Export Promotion Measures

While a number of existing export promotion schemes such as incentive related
to Duty Free Replenishment Certificate (DFRC), Duty Entitlement Passbook
(DEPB), Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG), Advance License have been
modified, refined and rationalised from time to time in the post-liberalisation
period, significantly the formulation of innovative schemes/projects to realign
India's trade strategies and priorities with the global trade dynamics have
attracted much more attention recently. A major hindrance to exports has been
the high import duties that producers have to pay on imported inputs and capital
equipment. This makes it difficult for them to compete in the world market. To
solve this problem, EPZs, E O U ~ Technology
, Parks and lastly Special
Economics Zones (SEZs) have been on the forefront in this regard. Export
Processing Zones (EPZs) were established as enclaves separated fmm the
domestic tariff area by fiscal barriers and were intended to provide duty h e
environment for export production at competitive cost. Many of these EPZs
have been converted into Special Economic Zones since 2000. Policy measures
announced in the successive Union Budgets have included a comprehensive
package for development of SEZs including their entitlement to procure duty
free equipment, raw material and components. Export Oriented Units (EOUs)
were set up as complementary to EPZs under which a unit could be set up at
any location (including EPZs) and enjoy liberal package of incentives at par
with EPZs. Again software TechnologyParks (STP) for IT and IT-related exports
and Electronic Hardware Technology Parks for electronics were launched to
give push to,these sectors. Recent addition to these schemes has been
Agriculture Economic Zones (AEZs) to promote the export of agro and
agro-based products. It is not only the decontrol and deregulation of the
agriculture sector to boost farm exports, the government also provides assistance
to the state governments in developing necessary infrastructure, availability of
credit and other facilities for these products.

Keeping in view the objective to developing India as a global hub for

manufacturing, trading and services under FTP 2004, the strategic measures
included to identify and nurture focus areas like agriculture, handloom and
handicrafts, gem & jewellery, leather and footwear and marine products;
simplification of procedures and neutralisation of incidence of all levies and
duties on inputs used for exports. For example, export promotion schemes
such as "Vishesh Krishi Upaj Yojna" and "Served from India" have been
announced to accelerate the growth of agriculture, floriculture, horticulture
products and services exports. Further, some thrust areas for policy
implementation during 2005 included introduction of Electronic Data
Interchange, Central SEZ Act to enable world class infrastructure through
~rivateuartici~ationand a simulified rermlatorvuolicv frame in the SEZs: =eater
flexibility to exporters in their foreign exchange transactions such as up to 360 1ndl.n T h d e policy:
Historical Perspective
days to realise the proceeds of exports on consignment basis and gold card and Rwmt mebpn*nb
scheme for medium and small exporters. In April 2005, under FTP, major
procedural simplifications with a view to reduce transaction costs were
announced and a Inter-State Trade Council was set up to involve states actively
in the export efforts.

17.3.4 Exchange Rate Management

Following two stage devaluation of the Indian rupee in quick succession in
July 1991, the government introduced Liberalised Exchange Rate System
(LERMS) with a view to allow the exchange rate to reflect the scarcity of
foreign exchange. However in 1993, this system was replaced by a policy of
unified exchange rate mechanism. Under this, exporters and other foreign
exchange earners could convert their 100 percent foreign earnings at market
rate. Thus presently, the exchange rate of the Indian rupee is determined by the
supply and demand conditions in the foreign exchange market. RBI stands
ready to intervene to maintain orderly market conditions and to curb excessive
speculation.

17.3.5 Some highlights of India's Trade Policy at Present

Most goods freely importable on payment of specified customs tariff
No quantitative restrictions on imports of capital goods and intermediates
Concessional customs duty for capital goods imports
Duty drawbacks on import of capital goods and inputs against export
obligations
Limited "Negative List" of imports and exports principally on grounds of
security, health and environmental protection
Export-promotion package, including income tax-exemptions, duty-free
imports of capital goods and raw material
Current account convertibility of the rupee
Ongoing rationalising of customs tariff levels.

Cbeck Your Progress 2

1) Do external sector reforms overlap trade policy reforms?

2) Distinguish between tariff and non-tariff barriers and some examples of

NTBs.
Intern*tionai Trade and 3) Highlight the organisational set-up in formulatingtrade policy in India.
Payments in India

4) Elaborate important export promotion measures inclding major

innovative schemes launched in recent years.

17.4 INDIA" TRADE PERFORMANCE: 1950-2004

In this section we discuss India's trade performance since 1950. By trade
performance we mean the following: (1) share of exports and imports in world
exports and imports and in total world trade, (2) growth rates in exports and
imports, (3) concentration and diversification of commodity cornpodtion of
trade, (4) concentration and diversification in geographical direction of trade
and (5) ratio of trade to gross domestic product (TradeIGDP) as a mamure of
openness of the country.

17.4.1 Trends of Trade Shares

India's share in total world exports in 1950 was 1.85 percent and the share in
total world imports was 1.7 1 percent. The share of both exports and imports
in total world trade was 1.78 perceM. These shares have decreased to 0.42
percent, 0.72 percent and 0.57 percent in 1980. This shows that India has poorly
performed in trade and many economists argue that this dismal performance
was entirely due to India's restrictive trade policies. However, intensities of
restrictiveness has been decreasing since the 1980s and we observe this in
gradual rising of these shares since 1980. Both exports and imports have
registered a significant increase over the years both in terms of value and its
share in world trade.
Table 17.1: Export and Import of India and its Share in World 'Itade

Year Exports (US S India's share Imports India's share India's trade
Million) in world (US S Million) in world share in world
India World exports (%) India World imports (%) Tmde (Yo)
1980 8586 2033075 0.42 14864 14703 17 1.01 0.67
1990 17969 3493575 0.5 1 23580 2639027 0.89 0.68
1995 30630 5 168919 0.59 34707 3596565 0.97 0.75
1999 35667 5705869 0.63 46979 4155887 1.13 0.84
2000 42379 6435732 0.66 51523 4610295 1.12 0.85
2001 43361 6177370 0.70 50392 4425677 1.14 0.88
2002 49250 6465239 0.76 56517 4553360 1.24 0.96
2003
2004
57085
71786
7490263
8975589
0.76
0.80
71238
94060
Source: UNCTAD Handbook o f Statistics 2005
5258424
6174947
1.35
1.52
1.01
1.09 1
The export has increased from 8586 million dollars in 1980 to 17969 million ~ n d bmade
. pdky:
dollars in 1990 and to 71786 million dollars in 2004. India's share in world Historical
md -t Perspective
urrhaa
export has increased over the years. It has increased fiom 0.42 percent in 1980
to 0.80 percent in 2004. Similarly, India's imports too have experienced a
significant rise over the years. It has increased from 14864 million dollars in
1980 to 94060 million dollars in 2004. The share of impods of India in world
imports'has also increased fiom 1.01 percent in 1980 to 1.52 percent in 2004.

17.4.2 Growth of Trade

As far as the growth of exports and impohs are concerned, it is evident fiom
Table 17.2 that India has performed better than the world growth rates in rkcent
years and is moving in tandem with developing economies o f . ~ s i a .
India's exports have registered a growth.of 25.8 percent in 2003~04.The.
con'esponding growth rate for developing economies ofAsia and World is 25.3
percent and 19.8 percent respectively. Similarlythe imports of India havegrown
at a rate of 32 percent during the same period. The corresponding growth.rate
for developing economies of Asia and World is 28.9 percent and 20.3 pkcent
respectively (see Table 17.2).
Table 17.2: Growth of Trade

1 I I I I I I I
Source: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2005
17.4.3 Composition and Direction of India's Trade
The impact of trade reforms can be observed fiom the changing structure of
India's foreign trade in terms of diversity of production and markets and also in
the form of higher degree of trade openness. India's export basket has changed
in favour of technology-intensive and manufactured products along with high
value-added agricultural products. India's trade is no longer confined to a few
rich developed countries; developing countries have also emerged important
markets for India's exports and its source of imports. Importantly, composition
of imports has also changed in the post-liberalisation period.

A glance at structure of India's exports reveals that its manufactured exports

accounted for more than three-fourths of its total exports during 1990s and
subsequently. However, relative importance of these export products show that
chemicals and allied products, engineering goods, readymade garments, gems
and jewellery have been the key drivers of this phenomenal growth. While the
importance of primary products in the export basket witnessed a decline during
1990s and early years of the new millennium, a new category of exports viz.,
petroleum products exports have shown a high rise since 2000 (See Table 17.3).
 Table 17.3: Structure of India's Exports

I I % Share in Trade / O h Share of Total Exports (

1990-91 199596 2002-03 1990-91 199596 200243
Primary Products , 4.3 7.3 8.3 23.8 22.8 15.8

Rice 0.3 1.4 1.1 1.4 4.3 2.1

Marine Products 0.5 1 .O 1.4 2.9 3.2 2.6
Ores and Minerals 1 .O 1.2 1.9 5.3 3.7 3.6
Iron ore 0.6 0.5 0.9 3.2 1.6 1.6
Others 0.4 0.7 1 .O 2.0 2.1 2.0

Leather and
1.4 1.8 1.8 8.0 5.5 3.4
Manufactures
Chemicals and Allied
.3 2.4 4.7 7.2 7.4 9.0
Products
Engineering 2.2 4.4 8.4 12.4 13.8 15.9
I

Readymade 2.2 3.7 5.4 12.3 11.6 10.2

Textile yam 1.5 3.5 4.9 8.5 11.1 9.4
Gems& . 2.9 5.3 8.9 16.1 16.6 16.8
Petroleum 0.5 0.5 2.4 2.9 1.4 4.6
Others 0.3 0.6 3.6 1.7 1.8 6.9
I Total Exports
L
1
I
18.1 1.
I
31.8 1
I
52.7 1
I
100.0 1
I
100.0 1
I
100.0 I
I
Source: Quoted in R$I, Report on Currency and Finance 2002-03, p.89.

Notwithstanding the diversification of manufactured exports, the top ten export

items of India account for about 60 percent of its total exports. Table 17.4
shows that USA is the main destination of all these products. Other major
export markets are UK, Germany, France, Italy and Japan among the developed
world whereas China, Hong Kong, UAE, Nigeria Taiwan, Bangladesh, Saudi
.. Arabia, Turkey among the developing countries. Interestingly however, China
..- . . and East Asian countries happen to be India's main competitors in those
. ...- developed markets.
Table 17.4: India's Leading Exports

Commodity
Export
share
199491
1995-96 200243 Destination Major Competitors

Israel, Belgium,
\
USA(36.6)
Gems and 16.1 China (studs), Italy
16.6 6.8 Hang Kong 9.2)
Jewelry @lain gold) ~ h ~ i l ~ ~ d
Belgium(11.5)
(gemstones)
USA(3 1.3).
China, Korea,
Readymade
Gannents 123 11.6 ' 0.2
UK(8.9),
GermanY(7'7)y
UAE(7.0),
Taiwan, Indonesia,
Thailand, Malaysia,
Bangladesh
France (6.8)
 USA(14.1), Indian 'lhdc Polly:
Basic Historical Pempdve
Chemicals, G~-Y (5.619 and Recent Developments
china, ~~d
6.8 6.8 8.3 China (4.4),
Pharmaceuticals (in castor oil)
and Cosmetics W(3.71,
UAE(2.8)
USA(18.4), China, USA, Australia
Cotton Yarn, Korea(5A), (for yarn and made
'."cs,Made- 6.4 8.1 6.2 ]UIC(4.7),p ups), China, Pakistan,
ups etc. Italy(4.6), Bangladesh (for
Bangladesh(4.6) fabrics)
Petroleum 2.9 1.4 4.6 NA NA
products
USA (13.9),
~e-ny(7.5), Germany, Japan, Italy,
Machinery and
3.8 2.6 3,s UAE(6.8),
Instruments China, Taiwan, Korea
UK (5.81,
Nigeria(3.2)
China (27.5).
USA(15.8), Indonesia, Korea,
Iron and Steel 0.9 2.2 3.4 UAE(4.9), Malaysia, Australia,
Bangladesh(3.7). Brazil, South Africa
Taiwan (3.5)
USA (23.6), I
Manufactures of UAE(10.8), Russia, South Africa,
2'5 2'6 3'3
Metals UK(9.9), Korea
Gcrrnany(3.6)
USA(27.9), '
Indonesia, Thailand,
Marine Products 2.9 3.2 2.6 Japan(22.6), Vietnam, Bangladesh
China (7.6)
1 I I I I

I UAE (19.7),
Man-made Saudi
Korea, China, Mexico,
yams, Fabrics, '1.2 2.4 2.5 Turkey(S.2). Bangladesh, hkistan
Made-ups etc. UK (4.71,
I I I I
USA (4.7)
. . I I

Source: Same as in Table 17.3, p.90.

Note: Figures in parenthesis indicate the share of exports, as on 2002-03, directed to the
respective countries in total exports of that commodity.

Another interesting feature of India's exports during 1990shas been that export
products- iron and steel, petroleum products and pharmaceuticals gained both
in terms of growth rate as well as share in the export basket. There were, on the
other side, products such as tea, cotton, leather and readymade garments which
found their shares declining in export markets (See Table 17.5).

Table 17.5: Major Export Gainers and Losers during the 1990s
lnternatlonal Trade and
Payments In India Losers
Cotton Raw including Waste 2.6 0.0 -27.7
1 Finished leather 1 5.2 0.9 1 -5.4 I
Tea ( 3.3 1 0.6 -4.7
Footwear of Leather 1 2.8 1 0.8 -1.7
Iron ore 3.2 1.6 3.3
Readyinade Garments; Man- made Fibre 2.5 1.3 3.8
Source: Same as in Table 17.3, p.90. @ Growth rate of exports in US dollar terms.
Note: In order to have reasonable comparative analysis, commodities having an export share OF2
percent or more during 2002-03 were taken to judge the top gainers. On the other hand only
those items having an export share of 2 percent or more in 1990-91 were analysed so as to
assess the loss of market shares.

Structure and composition of India's imports reveal many interesting features.

First, the policy of trade liberalisation has blurred the distinction between
essential imports and other imports in the wake of comfortable foreign exchange
position.

Table 17.6: Structure of India's Imports

% Share in Trade % Share of Total Imports

1990-91 1995-96 2002-03 1990-91 1995-96 2002-03
Bulk imports 10.8 14.3 24.1 45.1 39.0 39.3
' Petroleum, crude oil and products 6.0 7.5 17.6 25.0 20.4 28.7
Bulk Consumption Goods 0.6 1 .O 2.4 2.3 2.7 1 3.9
Edible oils 0.2 0.7 1.8 0.8 I .9 2.9
Other Bulk items 4.3 5.8 4.1 17.7 15.8 6.7
Fertilizers . 1.0 1.7 0.6 4.1 4.6 1 .O
Non Ferrous metals 0.6 0.9 .0.6 1 2.6 2.5 I .O
. - etc.
Metalliferrous ores, metal scrap, I
0.9 I
0.8 I
1.0 1, 3.5 1
I
2.2 1
I
1.6
Iron and Steel 1 .,2 1.4 0.9 4.9 3.8 1.5
I Non-Bulk imports 1 13.2 1 22.4 1 37.3 1 54.9 1 61.0 1 60.7 1

Machinery except electrical and 2, 3.4 8.7 10.6 5.6

3.9
electronic
Electrical machinery except electronic 0.9 0.4 0.6 3.9 1.I I .O
Electronic Goods 1.8 5.3 4.9 8.7
Transport equipment 0.9 1.1 1.8 3.9 3.0 2.9
Project Goods I .4 2.4 0.5 5.9 6.5 0.8
Mainly Export Related items 3.7 5.3 10.2 5 3 14.4 16.7
Pearls, precious and semi-precious
2, 2.1 6.0 8.7 5.7 9.9
stones
Organic and inorganic chemicals 1.3 2.6 3.0 5.3 7.1 4.8
Others 1 3.7 6.8 14.3 15.4 18.5 23.3
Professional, scientific instruments,
0,6 0.7 1.1 2.5 1.9 1.7
photographic
Coal, coke and briquettes, etc. 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.5 2.0
Total imports 24.1 36.7 61.4 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source; Same as in Table 17.3, p.99.

Table 17.6 shows that while petr;oleum still continues to have the top position
in India's imports, capital goods, and others - mainly export related products
have been the significant items of imports in the 1990s and beyond. Second, a
glance at major sources of India's imports show that new import partners in
East Asia (mainly China) and A h c a (South Africa) have come to occupy a Indian Trade Policy:
Historical Perspectfve
prominent position in 2002-03. Belgium with a share of about 6 percent of and Recent Developments
India's imports remains stable throughout 1990s (See Table 17.7).

Table 17.7: Major Sources of India's Imports

Top Non-Oil
Country Share products Country Share Top Non-Oil products
Rank

Machinery (except
Electronic goods, Fertilizer
electrical and machine
manufactured, machinery
USA tools), Metal ferrous USA 7.2
(except electrical and
ores and metals scrap,
electronics)
fertilizer manufactures
Pearls, precious and semi-
Machinery (except
precious stones, transport
electrical and machine
Germany Belgium 6.1 equipments, machinery
tools), project goods,
iron and steel (except electrical and

Japan
Machinery

tools), project
.
iron and steel
(except
electrical and machine
goods,
-
-
China
4a5 1 electronics
Electronic
chemicals-orgay
goods,

inorganic, textile yams,

Fabrics, Made u articles
and

Artificial resins.
Pearls, precious and semi-
Saudi plastic materials etc.
precious stones, non ferrous
sculpture and UK
Arabia metals, machinery (except
unfrosted ired pits,
organic chemicals electrical and electronics)
--
Pearls, precious and Machinery (except
semi-precious stones, electrical and machine
machinery (except Germany tools), electronic goods,
electrical and mach~ne chemicals-organic and
tools) project goods

Belgium I II
Pearls, precious and
semi-precious stones
organic
iron and steel
cbemicaIs,
I
Switzerland
I
Gold and silver, machinery

electronics),
chemicals
organic
-

CIS 5.9
Projects goods, non-
ferrous metals,
fertilizer manufactured
South
Africa
3.4 1
1 Gold and silver. coal. coke
and briquettes
chemicals-organic
etc.
and
inorganic
Metaliferous ores and Machinery excluding
metals scrap, sulphur electric and electronic
UAE 4.4 and unrosted iron Japan goods, professional
Pyres, inorganic instruments (except
chemicals electric), iron and steel

Australia 1 1 3.4
Coal.
briquettes
coke and
etc.,
Transport equipments,
pulses
Korea
Electronic
machinery
goods,
excluding
electric and electronics,
Transport equipments
Machinery (except
electrical and machine Vegetable oil fixed (edible),
10. Singapore 3.3 tools), electrical Malaysia 2.4 electronic goods, wood and
I 1 I I machinery, transport I 1 1 wood products I
equipments
64.3 41.3
Source: Same as in Table 17.3, p. 101.
Note: The share shown in the table is inclusive of petroleum, crude and products.

In the light of above, it can be said that the absolute value of India's foreign
trade presently has reached a range of $ 150-200 billion in 2005-06 fiom a
level of not more than $50 billion in 1991-92. India's exports have risen at a
rate of over 20 percent per annum during 2002-05. Still India's overall trade
position when compared to that af China seems pigmy. For example, China
exported goods worth $762 billion and imported goods around $660 billion in
the year 2005 alone, showing a massive trade surplus of $102 billion in that
year.
Intemati6nal Trade and
Payments in India 17.5 INDIA'S TRADE: STRATEGIC
CONSIDERATIONS
17.5.1 Trade and Economic Growth
For a long time, academic debate on trade liberalisation and its positive effects
on growth rate remained inconclusive and unsettled. But most recent studies
suggest that trade liberalisation contributes to growth and that trade openness
is an important factor behind higher productivity and per capita income. No
doubt, trade openness in India has steadily improved i.e., foreign trade as a
share of GDP rose from 13.32 percent in 1990-91 to 19.28 percent in 1995-96
and again 21.8 percent in 2000-01. While exports constituted 10.1 percent of
GDP and imports 11.6 percent of GDP in 2000-01, the respective shares have
maintained upward trend in the subsequent periods. The financing of India's
imports from its export earnings nearly reached 87 percent in the second half
of 1990s, implying the dependence on other sources of foreign exchange to
finance its imports declined in the post-reform period.

Nonetheless, India's experience to open up its economy and contribution of

trade to growth is hardly comparable to that of export-led industrialisation in
East Asian countries. In the latter case, intra regional spill-over effects inainly
originated from technology transfers through direct investment from Japan;
each shift in the industrial focus of the Japanese economy created market
opportunities for other economies in South Korea and Taiwan. Following
specialisation in high-tech industries by South Korea and Taiwan, the light
industries moved to Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines. Thus trade structure
of East Asia remained manufacturing-centric and FDI in these countries was
primarily directed to reduce technology gap.

Even based on the experience of East Asian countries, it may be difficult to

separate the effect of trade openness on growth from other institutional
mechanisms or palicy reforms. Second, trade liberalisation is not sufficient for
ensuring faster g r d unless it is accompanied by other complementarypolicies
such as monetary and fiscal policies and exchange rate policies. Whether exports
contribute to economic growth, the outcome of a study conducted by RBI
indicates that its contribution to GDP may be much lower when adjusted for
import of raw materials.

"The contribution of exports adjusted for imports of raw material to their sales
growth depicted a negative 0.3 percent during 1970s, which increased
marginally to 1.5 percent during 1980s.However during 1990s, exports adjusted
for import of raw materials to sales growth of these industries stood at 8.4
percent. This'was mainly due to higher exports contribution of 12 percent during
1999-0012000-01 (RBI, Report on Currency & Finance 2001-02, ch.vii, p.11).
At best, we can say that due to higher annual average growth of exports in
1990s (12.9 percent) in relation to average GDP growth (6.1 percent),
contribution of exports to growth in GDP increased modestly.

17.5.2 Trade-FDI Nexus

Economic liberalisation promotes both trade and FDI. The environment for
&,A, ,-A C n T h n nm n;.m:~nnn~i..
~ n n r r s ~ -:A I onnn TI.- i:~.-..i:,~+:~-. AC
rules and regulation governing trade, investment and technology flows has
opened new opportunities, particularly in India's services sector. FDI could be
export-promoting, import substituting or import enhancing depending upon
supply and demand factors in the global economy. We usually do not look at
, ,.
Indian Thde Poliy:
Historical Perspdve
Dme,oprQ~

direct magnitude of trade orientations of FDI but also its indirect effects-
technological advancement, skill up-gradation, linkage effects with local firms,
spillover and other related externalities, and reorientation of demand patterns.

Presently MNCs conduct a large proportion ofworld trade and have also become
active in undertaking FDI. Though MNCs provide linkage between FDI and
trade, determinants of this relationship (linkage) are mostly country-specific
such as size of the local market, factor cost in the host market, locational
advantage as also tradelinvestment restrictions in the hostlhome countries.

Available information suggests that the contribution of FDI to export expansion

has been quite large for the ASEAN and China as they attracted mainly export-
oriented FDI. For instance, foreign affiliates accounted for about half of total
exports of China during 2002 and even higher in some high tech products. In
case of India, exports as percent of value of total production of foreign
investment companies has shown a marginal increase during 1990s. Rather
import intensity of these companies remained marginally higher than their
export intensity. (RBI, Report on Currency and Finance 2002-03).

As stated earlier, trade- linked FDI in services sector provide enormous scope
for Indian exporters. Recently, Indian MNCs began seeking investment via
cross-border M&A activities particularly in software industry ih USA and UK.
Due to technological advances in ICT (Information, Communication and
Telecom), possibilities for export-oriented FDI in data processing, accounting
and similar serviceshave gone up tremendously (Medium T m Export Strategy
2002-07).

17.5.3 Trade in Services

You have already seen in Unit 13 how India has emerged as a major exporter of
services, bringing about a change in our negotiating position at the WTO.
India's trade in services, especially software exports have made a real dent in
the world market. It ranked 18" largest services exporter with a share of 1.4
percent in global exports in 2003. An upward shift in trend growth of services
exports fiom an average annual of 7.9 percent in the first half of 1990s to 15.3
percent in 2000-0112003-04 reflect the growing volume of these exports in
India's total exports. Traditionally while services receipts have been mainly
from travel, transportation and insurance sub-sectors, more recently the buoyant
growth of professional, technical and business services has provided a cushion
against the slowdown in the former categories. These new economy services
witnessed an average annual growth of about 37 percent during 1995-961
2003-04, contributing over 70 percent of total services exports in 2003-04.
Software services export share alone rose fiom 10.2percent in 1995-96to 48.9
percent in 2003-04. Exports of software and IT-enabled services rose by about
28 percent in 2003-04 and hrther 34.4 percent to reach $ 17.2 billion in
2004-05. The global market for software and services is projected to grow by
8.6 percent per m u m during 2004-08. India remains an attractive source of
software exports because of low cost of operations and availability of high
International and quality and skilled manpower resources. Another factor is that the stnicture of
Payments in India
software services exports shows that financial services including banks,
insurance companies and securities firms account for the largest share of Indian
software services followed by manufacturing and telecom sectors.

17.5.4 Regional Trading Arrangements (RTAs)

You have seen in earlier Units that India has been playing an active role in
WTO discussions. While Hong Kong WTO Ministerial has saved and kept the
spirit of multilateralism alive, there have nevertheless been apprehensions first
during Uruguay Round of Negotiations and subsequently during various
Ministerial levels on the very viability of WTO as an institution of negotiations.
However, one fall out of the stalled negotiations of Doha Round has been the
emergence of RTAs. Whether these RTAs are building or stumbling blocs for
multilateralism so far remains a moot point?

The relationship between regionalism, multilateralism (including globalisation)

is an important issue of contemporary interest. For one thing, the global
trading system has seen a sharp increase in regional trade agreements (RTAs)
and presently over 300 RTAs have been notified to the WTO. About 90 percent
of these RTAs are in the form of free trade areas (FTAs) and 10 percent customs
union. As you learned in Unit 15, a free trade area involves abolition of tariffs
while customs union imposes common external tariff in addition to abolition
of tariffs among member countries. RTAs can be trade creating or trade diverting
and can lead to welfare improvement or deterioration respectively. Arguments
and counter-arguments exist whether unilateral tariff reductions are superior or
inferior to granting regional preferential treatment. Some observers believe
that proliferation of RTAs threatens or undermines the multilateral system while
others opine that RTAs provide a push to global liberalisation in the present
times.

The government of India signed various trade agreements with different

countries of the world to enhance its trade volume. These trade agreements are
of various forms like free trade agreements, preferential trade agreements etc.
Free trade agreements aim at creating free trade zones by eliminating or
reducing various tariffs and duties for imports of various contacting countries.
Preferential trade agreements also extend such facilities to limited number of
products. Sometimes trade agreements were made to give MFN status to
contacting countries. India's trade agreement with Mongolia is one such case.
In some cases the contacting countries sign framework agreements to start
negotiation for such trade agreements. Often these trade agreements are
supplemented with early harvesting programme, which puts selected
commodities on a 'fast track' for liberalisation. Table 17.8 gives the list of
India's trade agreements with different countries and regional trading blocks
after 1990. India has been a member of SAARC Preferential Trading
Agreement (now South Asian Free Trade Area from 1 January 2006). Besides,
India is member of Indian Ocean Rim Association of Regional Cooperation
Agreement , BIMST-EC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand
Economic Cooperation). India has also entered bilateral free trade agreements
with Sri Lanka, Thailand and a Framework Agreement for Comprehensive
Economic Cooperation between India and ASEAN members.
 Table 17.8: Trade Agreements of India with Different Countries since 1990 Indian Trade Policy:
Historical Perspective
and Recent Developments

i
i
i
,
I
I

Arrangement (SAPTA)

Check Your Progress 3

1) Do you think there is some change in the composition and direction of

India's foreign trade in post-reform period?
..........................................................................................
..........................................................................................
..........................................................................................
..........................................................................................
2) "Trade-FDI nexus has not succeeded in India as much as in East Asia"
Comment.
..........................................................................................
.................................................. .......................................
i

..........................................................................................
International Trade and 3) How do you assess trade's contribution to economic growth in India?
Payments.in lndia

4) What are the current issues concerning India in WTO? Are multilateralism
and regionalism compatible?

LET US SUM UP
We are now in a position to sum up our analysis of India's trade policy. First,
India's trade policy has always been very intricately related to India's basic
development goals of achieving high rate of GDP growth and the removal of
poverty. Since lndia was specialised in primary production and therefore
exports of primary products during the early years of our planning for
industrialisation, India followed a very restrictive import control regime since
the second five year plan. Such policies had resulted in a very slow growth in
output and India's share in the world trade has been continuously declining.
There was however increasing realisation of the fact that protectionist policies
had led to growing industrial inefficiencyresulting in slow growth performance.
The economic crisis of 1991 and the remarkable economic performance of the
East Asian countries and the Chinese economy, which have followed vigorous
export oriented strategy of growth by liberalising their economies compelled
Indian policy makers to initiate fhndamental reform measures in India also.
India has liberalised its economy in many dimensions and particularly it has
liberalised its trading sector by eliminating all quotas and also progressively
reducing the tariffs. These measures have resulted in higher growth
performance and rapid transformation of the economy.

17.7 - KEY WORDS

Canalised Items: Canalised items are those items that could only be imported
through a designated state trading agency. This category of items was included
in the list of India's imports before liberalisation in 1991. India's imports at
that time were divided into four categories - open general license or OGL
items, restricted items, prohibited items and canalised items. OGL items meant
no license was required, restricted items meant an import license was required
for them to be imported, prohibited items were banned and canalised items
could only be imported through a'designated state trading agency.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): FDI inflow or outflows are with the
intention of buying physical assets to start a business in the home country or
abroad on long term basis.
Measure of Openness: It is a ratio of Trade to Gross Domestic Product (Trade/ Indian made policy:
Historical Perspective
GDP) and Recent Developments

Quantitative Restrictions (QRs): QRs are quotas on the physical amounts of

particular commodities that can be imported or exported during a specified
time period and are usually measured by volume or sometimes by value.
- - - - -

17.8 SOME USEFUL REFERENCES

Agarwal, Manmohan, The Role of the Extemal Sector in India's Development
Strategy: Implications for MTN, in John Whalley Ed. Developing Countries
and the Global Trading System, vol. 2 Macmillan ,PP. 101 - 120.

Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). 2005. Foreign Trade and
Balance of Payments, July, Bombay.
External Sector of India, Economic Survey (Various Issues), Government of
India.

GOI. 2004-05. Economic Survey, Government of India, Ministry of Finance,

New Delhi.

GOI. 2002. Medium Term Export Strategy 2002-07, Government of India,

Ministry of Commerce and Industry Department of Commerce, New Delhi.
GOI. 2004. Foreign Trade Policy 2004-09, Government of India, Ministry of
Commerce and Industry, Department of Commerce, New Delhi.

Kenen, Peter B. 1994. The International Economy, 3d Edition, Cambridge

University Press, Ch. 9 - 11, PP. 185 -297.

Reserve Bank of India. 2005. Report on Currency and Finance 2001-02, Chapter
VII (External Sector), Bombay.

17.9 ANSWERSIHINTS TO CHECK YOUR

PROGRESS EXERCISES
Check Your Progress 1

1) Read Section 17.2

2) Read Section 17.2

3) Read Section 17.2

Check Your Progress 2

1) Read Section 17.3

2) Read Sub-section 17.3.1

3) Read Sub-section 17.3.2

4) Read Sub-section 17.3.3

 International Trade and Cbeck Your Progress 3
Payments in I d a
1) Read Sub-section 17.4.3

2) Read Sub-section 17.5.2

3) Read Sub-section 17.5.1

4) Read Sub-section 17.5.4

y