Reading 20 Discounted Dividend Valuation - Answers
Reading 20 Discounted Dividend Valuation - Answers
Explanation
A firm cannot, in the long term, grow at a rate significantly greater than the growth rate of
the economy in which it operates. If the growth rate in dividends is too high, then it is best
replaced by a growth rate closer to that of GDP.
Relative to traditional financial models like the dividend discount model, the biggest
advantage of spreadsheet modeling is:
A) accuracy of computations.
B) quantity of computations.
C) simplicity of computations.
Explanation
A) correctly valued.
B) undervalued.
C) overvalued.
Explanation
The value per share using the estimates is $35.33 = [$2.00(1.06) / 0.12 − 0.06)]. This is
higher than the current share price.
Multi-stage growth models can become computationally intensive. For this reason they are
often referred to as:
A) quadratic models.
B) R-squared models.
C) spreadsheet models.
Explanation
The computationally intensive nature of these models make them a perfect application for
a spreadsheet program, hence the name spreadsheet models.
The most appropriate model for analyzing a profitable high-tech firm is the:
A) H-model.
B) zero growth cash flow model.
C) three-stage dividend discount model (DDM).
Explanation
Most of high-tech firms grow at very high rates and are expected to grow at those rates for
an initial period. These rates are expected to decline as the firm grows in size and loses its
competitive advantage. Of the models provided, the three-stage DDM is most appropriate
to analyze high-tech firms because of its flexibility. H-model may not be appropriate,
because a linear decline from the high growth rate to the constant growth rate cannot be
assumed and the dividend payout ratio is fixed.
Long-term Treasury
4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Bond Rate
Year 1, g=20%
Year 2, g=18%
After Year 6,
g=4%
If year 0 dividend is $1.50 per share, the required rate of return of shareholders is 15.2%,
what is the value of ABC, Inc.'s stock price using the H-Model? Assume that the growth in
dividends has been 20% for the last 8 years, but is expected to decline 3% per year for the
next 5 years to a stable growth rate of 5%.
A) $19.85.
B) $24.26.
C) $20.95.
Explanation
Use the H-Model to value the firm. The H-Model assumes that the initial growth rate (ga)
will decline linearly to the stable growth rate (gn). The high growth period is assumed to
last 2H years. Hence, the value per share = DPSo(1 + gn) / (r − gn) + DPSo × H × (ga − gn) / (r
− gn)
Which dividend-discount model is the best option for valuing the two companies?
Gordon
A) Three-stage
Growth
Gordon
B) Two-stage
Growth
C) Three-stage Two-stage
Explanation
Middle Hickory is in the initial-growth phase, while Lower Elm is in the transition phase.
The three-stage model is appropriate for new, fast-growing companies. The two-stage
model is appropriate for companies in the transitional phase.
Explanation
The H model assumes a high growth rate during the initial stage, followed by a linear
decline to a lower stable growth rate. It also assumes that the payout ratio is constant
over time.
Applying the Gordon growth model to value a firm experiencing supernormal growth would
result in:
Explanation
Applying the Gordon growth model to such a firm would result in an estimate of value
based on the assumption that the supernormal growth would continue indefinitely. This
would overstate the value of the firm.
Xerxes, Inc. forecasts earnings to be permanently fixed at $4.00 per share. Current market
price is $35 and required return is 10%. Assuming the shares are properly priced, the
present value of growth opportunities is closest to:
A) -$5.00.
B) +$5.00.
C) +$3.50.
Explanation
35 = (4 / 0.10) + PVGO
PVGO = -$5.00
An investor projects the price of a stock to be $16.00 in one year and expected the stock to
pay a dividend at that time of $2.00. If the required rate of return on the shares is 11%, what
is the current value of the shares?
A) $15.28.
B) $16.22.
C) $14.11.
Explanation
Given that a firm's current dividend is $2.00, the forecasted growth is 7%, declining over
three years to a stable 5% thereafter, and the current value of the firm's shares is $45, what
is the required rate of return?
A) 10.5%.
B) 9.8%.
C) 7.8%.
Explanation
The required rate of return is 9.8%.
If the value of an 8%, fixed-rate, perpetual preferred share is $134, the risk free rate is 3%,
and the par value is $100, the required rate of return is closest to:
A) 6%.
B) 7%.
C) 9%.
Explanation
An investor buys shares of a firm at $10.00. A year later she receives a dividend of $0.96 and
sells the shares at $9.00. What is her holding period return on this investment?
A) -0.8%.
B) +1.2%.
C) -0.4%.
Explanation
A) $91.11.
B) $73.68.
C) $92.23.
Explanation
= $102.18
The H-model is more flexible than the two-stage dividend discount model (DDM) because:
Explanation
A sudden decline in high growth rate in two-stage DDM may not be realistic. This problem
is solved in the H-model, as the initial high growth rate is not constant, but declines
linearly over time to reach the stable-growth rate.
JAD just paid a dividend of $0.80. Analysts expect dividends to grow at 25% in the next two
years, 15% in years three and four, and 8% for year five and after. The market required rate
of return is 10%, and Treasury bills are yielding 4%. JAD has a beta of 1.4. The estimated
current price of JAD is closest to:
A) $25.42.
B) $45.91.
C) $29.34.
Explanation
JAD's stock price today can be calculated using the three-stage model. Start by finding the
value of the dividends for the next four years with the two different dividend growth rates.
(Alternatively, you could use your financial calculators to solve for the future value to find
D1, D2, D3, and D4.)
Next find the value of the stock at the beginning of the constant growth period using the
constant dividend discount model:
D5
P4 =
r − g
D5 $1.785
P4 = = = $40.57
r − g 0.124 − 0.08
The easiest way to proceed is to use the NPV function in the financial calculator.
CF0 = 0; CF1 = 1.00; CF2 = 1.25; CF3 = 1.4375; CF4 = 1.6531 + 40.57 = 42.22
A firm currently has earnings of $3.14, and pays a dividend of $1.00, which is expected to
grow at a rate of 10%. If the required return is 15%, what is the current value of the shares
using the Gordon growth model?
A) $38.98.
B) $22.00.
C) $69.08.
Explanation
The Gordon growth model is used to value stocks based on a future series of dividends
that grow at a constant rate.
An analyst has forecast that Apex Company, which currently pays a dividend of $6.00, will
continue to grow at 8% for the next two years and then at a rate of 5% thereafter. If the
required return is 10%, based on a two-stage model what is the current value of Apex
shares?
A) $133.13.
B) $127.78.
C) $126.24.
Explanation
V0 = [($6 × 1.08) / 1.10] + [($6 × (1.08)2) / 1.102] + [ ($6 × (1.08)2 × 1.05) / (1.102 ×
(0.10 – 0.05))]
= $133.13
Which of the following dividend discount models (DDMs) is most appropriate for modeling a
mature company?
A) Two-stage DDM.
B) H-model.
C) Gordon growth model.
Explanation
The Gordon growth model assumes that dividends grow at a constant rate forever. It is
most suited for mature companies with low to moderate growth rates and well-
established dividend payout policies.
An investor projects that a firm will pay a dividend of $1.00 next year and $1.20 the following
year. At the end of the second year, the expected price of the shares is $22.00. If the
required return is 14%, what is the current value of the firm's shares?
A) $19.34.
B) $18.73.
C) $15.65.
Explanation
Historical information used to determine the long-term average returns from equity markets
may suffer from survivorship bias, resulting in:
Explanation
Given an equity risk premium of 3.5%, a forecasted dividend yield of 2.5% on the market
index and a U.S. government bond yield of 4.5%, what is the consensus long-term earnings
growth estimate?
A) 5.5%.
B) 10.5%.
C) 8.0%.
Explanation
Equity risk premium = forecasted dividend yield + consensus long term earnings growth
rate – long-term government bond yield.
Therefore,
Consensus long term earnings growth rate = 3.5% - 2.5% + 4.5% = 5.5%
Jakzach Corp. is a U.S.-based company. Exhibits 1–3 present the financial statements, which
are prepared according to U.S. GAAP, and related information for the company. Exhibit 4
presents relevant industry and market data.
Exhibit 1
Jakzach Corp.
20x6 20x5
Exhibit 2
Jakzach Corp.
Summary Income Statement for the Year Ended 31 December 20x6
(U.S. $ millions)
Revenue $300.80
amortization (EDITDA)
(71.17)
Depreciation and amortization
Interest (16.80)
Exhibit 3
Jakzach Corp.
Beta 1.80
Exhibit 4
31 December 20x6
The portfolio manager of a large mutual fund comments to one of the fund's analysts,
Katrina Preedy:
"We have been considering the purchase of Jakzach Corp. equity shares, so I would like you
to analyze the value of the company. To begin based on Jakzach's past performance; you can
assume that the company will grow at the same rate as the industry."
Calculate the value of a share of Jakzach equity on 31 December 20x6, using the Gordon
growth dividend model and the capital asset pricing model.
A) $20.00.
B) $22.40.
C) $211.68.
Explanation
The value of a share of Jakzach equity using the Gordon growth model and the capital
asset pricing model is $22.40.
Calculate the required rate of return using the capital asset pricing model.
Rf = 4.0%
E(Rm) = 9.0%
Beta = 1.8
r = 13.0%
D0 = $0.20
g = 12.0%
r = 13.0%
V0 = (D0 × (1 + g)) / (r – g)
V0 = $22.40
Professor's Note: You are given the dividend per share ($0.20) in Exhibit 4, but you are
also given total dividends in millions of $ ($3.20). It would have been very easy to mistake
total dividends for dividends per share and arrive at the wrong answer.
Calculate the profit margin component of Jakzach's return on equity for the year 20x6.
A) 8.70%.
B) 10.03%.
C) 19.91%.
Explanation
See answer 3.
Calculate the asset turnover component of Jakzach's return on equity for the year 20x6.
Note: Your calculations should use 20x6 beginning-of-year balance sheet values.
A) 0.53.
B) 0.56.
C) 0.94.
Explanation
The three components of Jakzach's return on equity, using the DuPont model and net
income, are:
Professor's Note: The default position when calculating ROE is to use opening balance
sheet values in equity analysis. This contrasts with the use of average in financial reporting
analysis. In equity analysis, we are concerned with the return generated on the net assets
in place at the start of the year.
Calculate the sustainable growth rate of Jakzach on 31 December 20x6. Note: Your
calculations should use 20x6 beginning-of-year balance sheet values.
A) 1%.
B) 9%.
C) 10%.
Explanation
= 0.0997
g = 9.97%
Using DuPont model results from above and per share data provided in question:
g = 10.04%
Given that a firm's current dividend is $2.00, the forecasted growth is 7% for the next two
years and 5% thereafter, and the current value of the firm's shares is $54.50, what is the
required rate of return?
A) 10%.
B) 9%.
C) Can’t be determined.
Explanation
The equation to determine the required rate of return is solved through iteration.
Through iteration, r = 9%
Explanation
The formula for sustainable growth is: g = b × ROE, where g = sustainable growth, b = the
earnings retention rate, and ROE equals return on equity.
If the risk-free rate is 6%, the equity premium of the chosen index is 4%, and the asset's beta
is 0.8, what is the discount rate to be used in applying the dividend discount model?
A) 10.80%.
B) 7.80%.
C) 9.20%.
Explanation
The discount rate = risk-free rate + beta (return expected on equity market less the risk-
free rate). Here, discount rate = 0.06 + (0.8 × 0.04) = 0.092, or 9.2%.
An investor projects that a firm will pay a dividend of $1.25 next year, $1.35 the second year,
and $1.45 the third year. At the end of the third year, she expects the asset to be priced at
$36.50. If the required return is 12%, what is the current value of the shares?
A) $32.78.
B) $29.21.
C) $31.16.
Explanation
The current value of the shares is $29.21: V0 = ($1.25 / 1.12) + ($1.35 / (1.12)2) + ($1.45 /
(1.12)3) + ($36.50 / (1 + 0.12)3) = $29.21
Demonstrate the use of the DuPont analysis of return on equity in conjunction with the
sustainable growth rate expression.
The following statistics are selected from Kyle Star Partners (Kyle) financial statements:
Dividends $5 million
A) 20.0%.
B) 33.3%.
C) 24.5%.
Explanation
SGR
= 20.0%
Explanation
The H model is useful for firms that are growing rapidly but the growth is expected to
decline gradually over time as the firm gets larger and faces increased competition. The
assumption of constant payout ratio makes the model inappropriate for firms that have
low or no dividend currently.
The debate over whether to use the arithmetic mean or geometric mean of market returns
for the capital asset pricing model (CAPM):
Explanation
There are several characteristics of the CAPM that limit its usefulness in determining the
required returns, including the uncertainty whether we should use arithmetic or geometric
means as the appropriate measure of long-term average returns.
Which of the following models would be most appropriate for a firm that is expected to grow
at an initial rate of 10%, declining steadily to 6% over a period of five years, and to remain
steady at 6% thereafter?
A) A two-stage model.
B) The Gordon growth model.
C) The H-model.
Explanation
The H-model is the best answer, as it avoids an immediate drop to 6% like a two-stage
would. The Gordon growth model would not be appropriate.
Analyst Kelvin Strong is arguing with fellow analyst Martha Hatchett. Strong insists that the
dividend discount model can be used to calculate the required return for a stock, though
only if the growth rate remains constant. Hatchett maintains that while such models are
useful for calculating the value of a stock, they should not be used to calculate required
returns. Who is CORRECT?
Strong Hatchett
A) Incorrect Incorrect
B) Correct Incorrect
C) Incorrect Correct
Explanation
Dividend discount models can be used to calculate required returns, assuming you have
the stock price, dividends, and dividend-growth rates, so Hatchett is wrong. Strong is right
about the fact that a DDM can calculate required returns, but wrong about the growth rate
assumption. Multistage dividend discount models can account for expected changes in the
growth rate.
The volatility of equity returns requires us to use data from long time periods to compute
mean returns. One problem that this causes is that:
Explanation
The primary problem with using returns gathered over a long time period is that equity
premiums vary over time with the market's perception of risk and relative risk.
Kyle Star Partners is expected to have earnings in year five of $6.00 per share, a dividend
payout ratio of 50%, and a required rate of return of 11%. For year 6 and beyond the
dividend growth rate is expected to fall to 3% in perpetuity. Estimate the terminal value at
the end of year five using the Gordon growth model.
A) $27.27.
B) $37.50.
C) $38.63.
Explanation
The dividend for year 5 is expected to be $3 ($6 times 50%). The dividend for year 6 is then
expected to be $3.00 × 1.03 = $3.09. The terminal value using the Gordon growth model is
therefore:
P5 = D6 / (k − g)
A) 10.5%.
B) 9.8%.
C) 12.7%.
Explanation
If we increase the required rate of return used in a dividend discount model, the estimate of
value produced by the model will:
A) increase.
B) decrease.
C) remain the same.
Explanation
The required rate of return is used in the denominator of the equation. Increasing this
factor will decrease the resulting value.
Jax, Inc., pays a current dividend of $0.52 and is projected to grow at 12%. If the required
rate of return is 11%, what is the current value based on the Gordon growth model?
A) $39.47.
B) unable to determine value using Gordon model.
C) $58.24.
Explanation
The Gordon growth model cannot be used if the growth rate exceeds the required rate of
return.
In computing the sustainable growth rate of a firm, the earnings retention rate is equal to:
A) 1 − (dividends / assets).
B) Dividends / required rate of return.
C) 1 − (dividends / earnings).
Explanation
What is the value of a fixed-rate perpetual preferred share (par value $100) with a dividend
rate of 11.0% and a required return of 7.5%?
A) $147.
B) $152.
C) $138.
Explanation
A) biotech firms.
B) utilities.
C) telecom companies.
Explanation
Gordon growth model is best suited to firms that have a stable growth comparable to or
lower than the nominal growth rate in the economy and have well established dividend
payout policies. Utilities, with their regulated prices, stable growth and high dividends, are
particularly well suited for this model.
If we know the forecast growth rates for a firm's dividends and the current dividends and
current value, we can determine the:
Explanation
Just as we can determine the current value of the shares from the current dividends,
growth forecasts and required return, we can solve for any one of them if we know the
other three factors.
Which of the following would NOT be appropriate to value a firm with two expected growth
stages? A(an):
A) H-model.
B) free cash flow model.
C) Gordon growth model.
Explanation
The Gordon growth model would not be appropriate for a firm with two stages of growth
but is useful to value a firm with steady slow growth.
The value per share for Burton, Inc. is $32.00 using the Gordon Growth model. The company
paid a dividend of $2.00 last year. The estimates used to calculate the value have changed. If
the new required rate of return is 12.00% and expected growth rate in dividends is 6%, the
value per share will increase by:
A) 4.17%.
B) 9.51%.
C) 10.42%.
Explanation
The value per share using the new estimates is $35.33 = [$2.0(1.06) / 0.12 - 0.06)] and the
percentage increase in the value per share will be 10.42% = [(35.33 - 32.00) / 32.00]
× 100%.
If the three-stage dividend discount model (DDM) results in extremely high value, the:
Explanation
If the three-stage DDM results in an extremely high value, either the growth rate in the
stable growth period is too high or the period of growth (high plus transition) is too long.
To solve these problems, an analyst should use a growth rate closer to GNP growth and
use shorter high-growth and transition periods.
The required rate of return for an asset is often difficult to determine, but if we know the
growth prospects and the current earnings of a firm we can determine the implied required
rate of return from the:
Explanation
The required rate of return is implicit in the asset's market price and can be determined
with the present value of growth opportunities.
In its most recent quarterly earnings report, Smith Brothers Garden Supplies said it planned
to increase its dividend at an annual rate of 5% for the foreseeable future. Analyst Anton
Spears is using a required return of 9.5% for Smith Brothers stock. Smith Brothers stock
trades for $52.17 per share and earned $3.01 per share over the last 12 months. The
company paid a dividend of $2.15 per share during the last 12-month period, and its
dividend-growth rate for the last five years was 9.2%. Using the Gordon Growth model, the
share price for Smith Brothers stock is most likely:
A) overvalued.
B) undervalued.
C) correctly valued.
Explanation
The Gordon Growth model is as follows:
= 50.17
Based on this information and the Gordon growth model, what is the firm's justified leading
price to earnings (P/E) ratio?
A) 8.7.
B) 11.3.
C) 10.7.
Explanation
Which of the following is least likely a valid approach to determining the appropriate
discount rate for a firm's dividends?
Explanation
FCFF is another discounted cash flow model, not a method to determine required returns.
Each of the other answers is a valid approach to determining an appropriate discount rate.
A firm's dividend per share in the most recent year is $4 and is expected to grow at 6% per
year forever. If its shareholders require a return of 14%, the value of the firm's stock (per
share) using the single-stage dividend discount model (DDM) is:
A) $50.00.
B) $28.57.
C) $53.00.
Explanation
The value of the firm's stock is: $4 × [1.06 / (0.14 − 0.06)] = $53.00
In using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine the appropriate discount rate
for discounted cash flow models (DCFs), the asset's beta is used to determine the amount of:
Explanation
Beta measures the correlation between the equity market or index for which the market
risk premium is calculated and the particular asset being valued. Beta is used to
approximate the proportion of the equity risk premium applicable to the asset (in relation
to the market or index used).
Heather Callaway, CFA, is concerned about the accuracy of her valuation of Crimson Gate, a
fast-growing telecommunications-equipment company that her firm rates as a top buy.
Crimson currently trades at $134 per share, and Callaway has put together the following
information about the stock:
Callaway's employer, Bates Investments, likes to use a company's sustainable growth rate as
a key input to obtaining the required rate of return for the company's stock.
A) 14.8%.
B) 16.6%.
C) 13.2%.
Explanation
Sustainable growth rate = ROE × retention rate
The retention rate represents the portion of earnings not paid out in dividends. = (5.23 −
0.55) / 5.23 = 0.89 or 89%
Multi-stage dividend discount models can be used to estimate the value of shares:
Explanation
Multi-stage dividend discount models are very flexible, allowing their use with an almost
infinite variety of growth scenarios.
Tri-coat Paints has a current market value of $41 per share with an earnings of $3.64. What
is the present value of its growth opportunities (PVGO) if the required return is 9%?
A) $0.56.
B) $1.27.
C) $3.92.
Explanation
Financial models such as the DDM represent a cornerstone of equity valuation from an
academic standpoint. But in the real life, many analysts do not use the DDM. The least likely
reason for this is:
A) the model lacks the flexibility required to model values in the real world.
B) modern research has shown that many of the old standbys do not work.
C) some of the assumptions required are impractical.
Explanation
The DDM requires assumptions that many analysts find impractical. In addition, the model
lacks the flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances. Both of these problems can be
overcome, to a large extent, by using spreadsheet modeling to forecast cash flows and
other variables.
If Cantel, Inc., has current earnings of $17, dividends of $3.50, and a sustainable growth rate
of 11%, what is its return on equity (ROE)?
A) 13.85%.
B) 17.64%.
C) 11.91%.
Explanation
A) $3.15.
B) $13.65.
C) $3.00.
Explanation
Which of the following dividend discount models has the limitation that a sudden decrease
to the lower growth rate in the second stage may NOT be realistic?
Explanation
The two-stage DDM has the limitation that a sudden decrease to the lower growth rate in
the second stage may not be realistic. Further, the model has the difficulty in trying to
estimate the length of the high-growth stage.
Based only on the information above, the implied dividend growth rate is closest to:
A) 19.89%.
B) 15.68%.
C) 10.27%.
Explanation
We have the price and dividend. We need the required rate of return to use the Gordon
Growth model to calculate implied dividend growth. Using the capital asset pricing model,
the required return = risk-free rate + (beta × equity risk premium) = 17.72%.
18.12 × [0.1772 − dividend growth rate] = 0.32 + 0.32 × dividend growth rate
3.2112 − 18.12 × dividend growth rate = 0.32 + 0.32 × dividend growth rate
In which of the following stages is a firm most likely to distribute the highest proportion of
its earnings in the form of dividends?
As a firm matures, the forces of competition begin to deny it opportunities to earn greater
than the required return. Faced with this situation, most earnings are distributed to
shareholders as dividends. An alternate way of returning capital is through stock
repurchases.
Which of the following models would be most appropriate for a firm that is expected to grow
at 8% for the next three years, and at 6% thereafter?
Explanation
A firm that is expected to experience two growth stages with a fixed rate of growth for
each stage should be evaluated with a two-stage dividend discount model.
In its most recent quarterly earnings report, Smith Brothers Garden Supplies said it planned
to increase its dividend at an annual rate of 13% for the foreseeable future. Analyst Clinton
Spears has an annual return target of 15.5% for Smith Brothers stock. He decides to use the
dividend-growth rate to back out another return estimate to test against his. Smith Brothers
stock trades for $55 per share and earned $3.01 per share over the last 12 months. The
company paid a dividend of $2.15 per share during the 12-month period, and its dividend-
growth rate for the last five years was 9.2%.
Using the Gordon Growth model, the required annual return for Smith Brothers stock is
closest to:
A) 17.42%.
B) 19.18%.
C) 13.47%.
Explanation
If a stock expects to pay dividends of $2.30 per share next year, what is the value of the
stock if the required rate of return is 12% and the expected growth rate in dividends is 4%?
A) $19.17.
B) $28.75.
C) $29.90.
Explanation
Using the Gordon growth model, the value per share = DPS1 / (r − g) = 2.30 / (0.12 − 0.04) =
$28.75.
Jand, Inc., currently pays a dividend of $1.22, which is expected to grow at 5%. If the current
value of Jand's shares based on the Gordon model is $32.03, what is the required rate of
return?
A) 9%.
B) 7%.
C) 8%.
Explanation
The required return is 9%: r = [$1.22(1 + 0.05) / $32.03] + 0.05 = 0.09 or 9%.
Methods for estimating the terminal value in a DDM are least likely to include:
A) PVGO.
B) the market multiple approach.
C) the Gordon Growth Model.
Explanation
No matter which dividend discount model we use, we have to estimate a terminal value at
some point in the future. There are two ways to do this: using the Gordon growth model
and the market multiple approach (i.e., a P/E ratio).
A company's stock beta is 0.76, the market return is 10%, and the risk-free rate is 4%. The
stock will pay no dividends for the first two years, followed by a $1 dividend and $2 dividend,
respectively. An investor expects to sell the stock for $10 at the end of four years. What price
is an investor willing to pay for this stock?
A) $11.03.
B) $9.42.
C) $10.16.
Explanation
The first step is to determine the required rate of return as 4% + [(10% – 4%) × 0.76] or
8.56% per year. The second step is to determine the present value of all future expected
cash flows, including the terminal $10 stock price, discounted back four years to today.
The solution is shown below.
Year CF
1 0
2 0
3 1
4 2
4 10
Which of the following actions will be least helpful for an analyst attempting to improve the
predictive power of his scenario analysis?
Explanation
The whole point of scenario analysis is the flexibility to modify the inputs to see how
changes in one factor affect others. In order to perform scenario analysis, you must
deviate from the core model. Increased precision on the inputs will increase the predictive
power of almost any model. Spreadsheets reduce the likelihood of computational
inaccuracies and allow analysts to more easily modify models to reflect many scenarios.
Bernadine Nutting has just completed several rounds of job interviews with the valuation
group, Ancis Associates. The final hurdle before the firm makes her an offer is an interview
with Greg Ancis, CFA, the founder and senior partner of the group. He takes pride in
interviewing all potential associates himself once they have made it through the earlier
rounds of interviews, and puts candidates through a grueling series of tests. As soon as
Nutting enters his office, Ancis tries to overwhelm her with financial information on a variety
of firms, including Turbo Financial Services, Aultman Construction, and Reality Productions.
Ancis then moves on to Turbo Financial Services. Ancis has been following Turbo for quite
some time because of its impressive earnings growth. Earnings per share have grown at a
compound annual rate of 19% over the past six years, pushing earnings to $10 per share in
the year just ended. He considers this growth rate very high for a firm with a cost of equity
of 14%, and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of only 9%. He's especially impressed
that the firm can achieve these growth rates while still maintaining a constant dividend
payout ratio of 40%, which he expects the firm to continue indefinitely. With a market value
of $55.18 per share, Ancis considers Turbo a strong buy.
Ancis believes that Turbo will have one more year of strong earnings growth, with EPS rising
by 20% in the coming year. He then expects EPS growth to fall 5 percentage points per year
for each of the following two years, and achieve its long-term sustainable growth rate of 5%
beginning in year four.
Finally, Ancis turns to Aultman Construction, trading at $22 per share (with current EPS of
$2.50 and a required return of 18%), and Reality Productions, which currently trades at $30
per share. Reality Production's current dividend is $1.50, but the historical dividend growth
rate has been a stable 10%. Dividend growth is expected to decline linearly over six years to
5%, and then remain at 5% indefinitely.
Which of the following statements is least accurate? The two-stage DDM is most suited for
analyzing firms that:
Explanation
The two-stage DDM is well suited to firms that have high growth and are expected to
maintain it for a specific period. The assumption that the growth rate drops sharply from
high-growth in the initial phase to a stable rate makes this model appropriate for firms
that have a competitive advantage, such as a patent, that is expected to exist for a fixed
period of time. The model is not useful in analyzing a firm that is in an industry with low
barriers to entry. Low barriers to entry are likely to result in increased competition.
Therefore, the length of the initial phase of the growth period is indeterminate and
probably uneven.
A) 12.50%.
B) 11.00%.
C) 11.75%.
Explanation
The H-model applies to firms where the dividend growth rate is expected to decline
linearly over the high-growth stage until it reaches its long-run average growth rate. This
most closely matches the anticipated pattern of growth for Reality Productions.
The H-model can be rewritten in terms of r and used to solve for r given the other model
inputs:
Based upon its current market value, what is the implied long-term sustainable growth rate
of Turbo Financial Advisors?
A) 4.0%.
B) 0.3%.
C) 19.0%.
Explanation
The implied long-term rate is the rate that will cause the present value of expected
dividends to equal its current market value. Since Ancis provides specific growth rates for
Turbo over the next three years, we can use a multi-stage dividend discount model and
solve for the long-term growth rate that makes the present value equal to the current
market value.
Note that the 19% historical dividend growth rate is irrelevant to the current value of the
firm. Since the dividend payout ratio is expected to remain constant at 40%, we can use
the expected growth rate in earnings to estimate future dividends. EPS growth is forecast
at 20% in year 1, 15% in year 2, and 10% in year 3.
Multiplying each year's expected dividend times the relevant forecast growth rate, we
calculate:
Discounting these back to their present value in year 0 using the cost of equity (the WACC
is irrelevant), we find:
Present Value (D1 + D2 + D3) = ($4.80 / 1.141) + ($5.52 / 1.142) + ($6.07 / 1.143)
= $12.56
Thus, we know that $12.56 of the current $55.18 market value represents the present
value of the expected dividends in years 1, 2 and 3. Therefore, the present value of the
firm's dividends for years 4 and beyond must equal ($55.18 - $12.56) = $42.62.
Since the present value of the firm's dividends beginning in year 4 equals $42.62, the
future value in year four will equal ($42.62 × 1.143) = $63.14.
Now that we know the value in year 4 of the future stream of steady-growth dividends, we
can solve for the growth rate using the Gordon Growth Model:
2.77 = 69.21x
x = 0.04
The long-term growth rate that makes Turbo fairly valued is 4% per year.
We can check our calculation by plugging the 4% growth rate we just solved for into the
Gordon Growth Model and then plugging that result into the basic multi-stage dividend
discount model:
P3 = [($6.07)(1 + 0.04)] / (0.14 − 0.04)
P3 = 6.313 / (.10)
P3 = 63.13
(Note that this value varies from the previous calculation by 0.01 because of rounding
error.)
P0 = ($4.80 / 1.141) + ($5.52 / 1.142) + ($6.07 / 1.143) + ($63.13 / 1.143) = $55.18, which is
the current market value. At a 4% growth rate, Turbo is fairly valued.
Note that on the exam, it may be faster to plug each growth rate into the Gordon Growth
Model and then plug each of those terminal values into the basic multi-stage formula than
to solve for the growth rate. This trial and error method is especially effective if you start
with the "middle" growth rate and then decide which value to test next depending on the
results of the first calculation. For example, if the first growth rate gives a value for the
firm that is too high, you can eliminate all the higher growth rates and try the next lower
one.
A) 13.9%.
B) 8.1%.
C) 36.9%.
Explanation
The present value of the company's future investment opportunities is also known as
PVGO, which can be calculated using the formula: Value = (E / r) + PVGO
where
r = required return
PVGO = $8.11
The PVGO as a percentage of the market price equals ($8.11 / $22.00) = 36.9%.
UC Inc. is a high-tech company that currently pays a dividend of $2.00 per share. UC's
expected growth rate is 5%. The risk-free rate is 3% and market return is 9%.
A) 1.02.
B) 1.20.
C) 1.16.
Explanation
From CAPM:
r = 0.03 + b(0.09 − 0.03)
b = 1.20
A) $9.72.
B) $20.79.
C) $44.49.
Explanation
From CAPM:
r = 0.03 + (0.09 − 0.03)
r = 0.03 + 1.12(0.06)
r = 0.0972
V0 = D1 / (r − g)
Assuming a beta of 1.12, if UC is expected to have a growth rate of 10% for the first 3 years
and 5% thereafter, what is the value of UC stock?
A) $53.81.
B) $46.89.
C) $50.87.
Explanation
D1 = 2(1.10) = 2.20
D2 = 2.20(1.10) = 2.42
D3 = 2.42(1.10) = 2.662
D4 = 2.662(1.05) = 2.795
V3 = D4 / (r − g)
= 59.22
= $50.87
Assuming a beta of 1.12, if UC's growth rate is 10% initially and is expected to decline
steadily to a stable rate of 5% over the next three years, what is the price of UC stock?
A) $47.82.
B) $46.61.
C) $47.67.
Explanation
The discounted dividend approach that we have used to value UC Inc. is most appropriate
for valuing dividend-paying stocks in which:
A) free cash flow is negative.
B) the investor takes a minority ownership perspective.
C) dividends differ substantially from FCFE.
Explanation
The discounted dividend approach is most appropriate for valuing dividend-paying stocks
in a company that has an rational dividend policy with a clear relationship to the
company's profitability, and where the investor takes a minority ownership (non-control)
perspective. A free cash flow approach may be appropriate when a company's dividends
differ significantly from FCFE. The residual income approach is most useful when a
company's free cash flow is negative.
UC Inc. had earnings of $3.00/share last year and a justified trailing P/E of 15.0. Is the stock
currently overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued if we consider a security trading within a
band of ±10 percent of intrinsic value to be within a "fair value range"? At a market price of
$40.38, UC Inc. is best described as:
A) undervalued.
B) fairly valued.
C) overvalued.
Explanation
The justified trailing P/E or P0/E0 is V0/E0, where V0 is the fair value based on the stock's
fundamentals. The justified trailing P/E is given as 15, so the fair value V0 based on an E0
of $3.00 can be computed as 15 × 3.00 = $45.00. Thus at a market price of $40.38, UC Inc.
is undervalued by slightly more than 10%.
Year 0 $4.00
Year 1 $6.00
Year 2 $9.00
Year 3 $13.50
Note: Shareholders of Ski, Inc., require a 20% return on their investment in the high growth
stage compared to 12% in the stable growth stage. The dividend payout ratio of Ski, Inc., is
expected to be 40% for the next three years. After year 3, the dividend payout ratio is
expected to increase to 80% and the expected earnings growth will be 2%. Using the
information contained in the table, what is the value of Ski, Inc.'s, stock?
A) $71.38.
B) $39.50.
C) $43.04.
Explanation
The terminal value of the firm (in year 3) is 11.016 / (0.12 − 0.02) = 110.16. Value per share
= 2.4 / (1.2)1 + 3.6 / (1.2)2+ 5.4 / (1.2)3 + 110.16 / (1.2)3 = $71.38.
Ambiance Company has a current market price of $42, a current dividend of $1.25 and a
required rate of return of 12%. All earnings are paid out as dividends. What is the present
value of Ambiance's growth opportunities (PVGO)?
A) $38.85.
B) $31.58.
C) $16.71.
Explanation
Obsidian Glass Company has current earnings of $2.22, a required return of 8%, and the
present value of growth opportunities (PVGO) of $8.72. What is the current value of
Obsidian's shares?
A) $36.47.
B) $27.75.
C) $10.94.
Explanation
A firm pays a current dividend of $1.00 which is expected to grow at a rate of 5% indefinitely.
If current value of the firm's shares is $35.00, what is the required return applicable to the
investment based on the Gordon dividend discount model (DDM)?
A) 7.86%.
B) 8.25%.
C) 8.00%.
Explanation
The Gordon DDM uses the dividend for the period (t + 1) which would be $1.05.
Recent surveys of analysts report long-term earnings growth estimates as 5.5% and a
forecasted dividend yield of 2.0% on the market index. At the time of the survey, the 20-year
U.S. government bond yielded 4.8%. According to the Gordon growth model, what is the
equity risk premium?
A) 2.7%.
B) 0.4%.
C) 7.5%.
Explanation
If an asset was fairly priced from an investor's point of view, the holding period return (HPR)
would be:
Explanation
A fairly priced asset would be one that has an expected HPR just equal to the investor's
required return.
One of the groups considering a bid for Flyaweight is Angelcap Investors, a private equity
fund run by Harry Moskowitz. Angelcap is interested in acquiring a 10% interest in
Flyaweight. Moskowitz' partner, Bill Sharpless, runs the group doing due diligence on
Flyaweight. He provides Moskowitz with financial data on the firm:
They ask Merle Muller, an analyst at the firm, to calculate an appropriate required return on
Flyaweight. Muller collects the following market consensus information:
Sharpless argues in favor of using the Gordon Growth Model (GGM). "We know what the
company growth rate is, we know what the dividend is, and we can decide what our required
rate of return is. The GGM will give us the most accurate valuation because it uses the inputs
we can measure most accurately." Moskowitz points out, "An H-model would be more
appropriate because it assumes a linear slowdown in growth to a constant rate in
perpetuity."
While Sharpless and Moskowitz debate the appropriate valuation approach, Muller prepares
forecasts for Flyaweight.
Judging by the data in Table 1, the most appropriate method for valuing Flyaweight would
be:
Explanation
A residual income model is appropriate for firms with long term negative free cash flow
due to high capital demands. A DDM would not be appropriate since the dividend payout
ratio is fluctuating widely. Justified P/E is not a preferred valuation method for high-growth
companies because it assumes a constant growth rate in perpetuity.
With respect to their statements about the use of the GGM and the H-model:
Explanation
Moskowitz is correct that an H-model assumes a linear slowdown in growth until a
constant growth rate is achieved. Sharpless is incorrect that the GGM would be an
appropriate technique for valuing Flyaweight because the GGM assumes a constant rate of
growth in perpetuity and Flyaweight has not yet reached a constant growth rate.
Which of the following is least likely to be a characteristic of a company in the initial growth
phase?
Explanation
Companies in the initial growth phase tend to have a return on equity higher than the
required rate of return, along with high profit margins and a low dividend payout.
Based on the forecast data in Table 3, Flyaweight's sustainable growth rate (SGR) is closest to
which value? If asset turnover were to rise from the forecast level, what would be the impact
on SGR?
A) 22% Increase
B) 22% Decline
C) 24% Increase
Explanation
Note that total assets for the firm must equal total liabilities plus owners' equity, so assets
are ($14.40 + $12.70) = $27.10.
SGR = 0.22
IAM, Inc. has a current stock price of $40.00 and expects to pay a dividend in one year of
$1.80. The dividend is expected to grow at a constant rate of 6% annually. IAM has a beta of
0.95, the market is expected to return 11%, and the risk-free rate of interest is 4%. The
expected stock price two years from today is closest to:
A) $43.94.
B) $43.49.
C) $41.03.
Explanation
2 2
D3 = D1 × (1 + g) = $1.80 × 1.06 = $2.0225
D3 $2.0225
P2 = = = $43.49
r − g 0.1065 − 0.06
If a firm has a return on equity of 15%, a current dividend of $1.00, and a sustainable growth
rate of 9%, what are the firm's current earnings?
A) $1.75.
B) $2.50.
C) $1.50.
Explanation
The earnings can be determined by solving for earnings in the sustainable growth formula:
Dynamite, Inc., has current earnings of $26, current dividend of $2, and a returned on equity
of 18%. What is its sustainable growth?
A) 14.99%.
B) 16.62%.
C) 13.37%.
Explanation
Year 0 Dividends
$1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50
per Share
Long-term
Treasury Bond 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Rate
Expected Return
12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
on the S&P 500
Year 1, g=20%
Year 2, g=18%
After Year 6,
g=4%
What is the value of ABC, Inc.'s stock price using the assumptions contained in Scenario 4?
A) $22.22.
B) $18.52.
C) $26.66.
Explanation
The required rate of return is (r) = 0.05 + 1.4(0.12 − 0.05) = 0.148
Year Dividend
0 1.50
1 1.50 × 1.2 = 1.80
2 1.80 × 1.18 =2.124
3 2.124 × 1.16 = 2.464
4 2.464 × 1.09 = 2.686
5 2.686 × 1.08 = 2.900
6 2.901 × 1.07 = 3.103
7 3.103 × 1.04 = 3.227
Now discount the dividend stream to get the value per share. Use the Gordon growth
model to discount the constant growth after period 6. Value per share = (1.8 / 1.148) +
(2.124 / 1.1482) + (2.464 / 1.1483) + (2.686 / 1.1484) + (2.900 / 1.1485) + (3.103 / 1.1486) +
(3.227 / 1.1486(0.148 − 0.04)) = 22.22.
A $100 par, perpetual preferred share pays a fixed dividend of 5.0%. If the required rate of
return is 6.5%, what is the current value of the shares?
A) $88.64.
B) $76.92.
C) $100.00.
Explanation
A) decline stage.
B) maturity stage.
C) transitional stage.
Explanation
The second stage is often referred to as the transitional stage. During the transitional
stage, the firm's growth begins to slow as competitive forces build.
Free cash flow to equity models (FCFE) are most appropriate when estimating the value of
the firm:
Explanation
FCFE models attempt to estimate the value of the firm to equity holders. The models take
in to account future cash flows due to others, including debt and taxes, and amounts
required for reinvestment to continue the firm's operations.
If an asset's beta is 0.8, the expected return on the equity market is 10%, the retention ratio
is 0.7, the dividend growth rate is 5%, and the appropriate discount rate for the Gordon
model is 9%, the risk-free rate must be closest to:
A) 5.0%.
B) 2.5%.
C) 3.8%.
Explanation
Required return = risk-free rate + beta (expected equity market return – risk-free rate)
Which of the following is least likely a limitation of the two-stage dividend discount model
(DDM)?
Explanation
The Terminal value in two-stage DDM is most sensitive to estimates of growth and
required rate of return.
The current market price per share for High-on-the-Hog, Inc. is $52.50, and an analyst is
using the Gordon Growth model to determine whether this is a fair price. The company paid
a dividend of $3.00 last year on earnings of $4.50 a share. If the required rate of return is
11.00% and the expected grown rate in earnings and in dividends is 5%, the current market
price is most likely:
A) correctly valued.
B) undervalued.
C) overvalued.
Explanation
The value per share using the estimates is $52.50 = [$3.00(1.05) / 0.11 − 0.05)].
What is the value of a fixed-rate perpetual preferred share (par value $100) with a dividend
rate of 7.0% and a required return of 9.0%?
A) $56.
B) $71.
C) $78.
Explanation
James Malone, CFA, covers GNTX stock, which is currently trading at $45.00 and just paid a
dividend of $1.40. Malone expects the dividend growth rate to decline linearly over the next
six years from 25% in the short run to 6% in the long run. Malone estimates the required
return on GNTX to be 13%. Using the H-model, the value of GNTX is closest to:
A) $33.40.
B) $32.60.
C) $17.55.
Explanation
What is the difference between a standard two-stage growth model and the H-model?
In the standard two-stage model, a fixed rate of growth is assumed for each
A) stage, while the H-model assumes a linearly declining rate of growth in one
stage.
The H-model assumes that earnings will dip in the middle of each stage and
B)
return to the previous rate by the period's end.
The H-model assumes a terminal value, while the standard two-stage model
C)
does not.
Explanation
The H-model provides an estimate of the firm's value based on the assumption that the
rate of growth will change linearly over the initial stage.
If the expected return on the equity market is 10% and the risk-free rate is 3%, the required
return on an asset with beta of 0.6 is closest to:
A) 7.2%.
B) 6.0%.
C) 9.0%.
Explanation
The required return on an asset is equal to the current expected risk-free return, plus the
asset's beta times the difference between the expected return on the equity market and
the risk-free rate. Required return = 0.03 + 0.6(0.10 - 0.03) = 0.072 or 7.2%.
Explanation
In what stage of growth would a firm most likely NOT pay dividends?
A) Declining stage.
B) Transition stage.
C) Initial growth stage.
Explanation
During the initial growth stage, the firm is able to exploit opportunities to earn greater
than the required return. During this stage, earnings are reinvested in the growth
opportunities rather than returned to the investors.
A) 10%.
B) 13%.
C) 11%.
Explanation
The required return = [($36.00 + $2.80) / $34.34 ] – 1 = 0.13 or 13%.
Julie Davidson, CFA, has recently been hired by a well-respected hedge fund manager in New
York as an investment analyst. Davidson's responsibilities in her new position include
presenting investment recommendations to her supervisor, who is a principal in the firm.
Davidson's previous position was as a junior analyst at a regional money management firm.
In order to prepare for her new position, her supervisor has asked Davidson to spend the
next week evaluating the fund's investment policy and current portfolio holdings. At the end
of the week, she is to make at least one new investment recommendation based upon her
evaluation of the fund's current portfolio. Upon examination of the fund's holdings,
Davidson determines that the domestic growth stock sector is currently underrepresented in
the portfolio. The fund has stated to its investors that it will aggressively pursue
opportunities in this sector, but due to recent profit-taking, the portfolio needs some
rebalancing to increase its exposure to this sector. She decides to search for a suitable stock
in the pharmaceuticals industry, which, she believes, may be able to provide an above
average return for the hedge fund while maintaining the fund's stated risk tolerance
parameters.
Davidson has narrowed her search down to two companies, and is comparing them to
determine which is the more appropriate recommendation. One of the prospects is Samson
Corporation, a mid-sized pharmaceuticals corporation that, through a series of acquisitions
over the past five years, has captured a large segment of the flu vaccine market. Samson
financed the acquisitions largely through the issuance of corporate debt. The company's
stock had performed steadily for many years until the acquisitions, at which point both
earnings and dividends accelerated rapidly. Davidson wants to determine what impact any
additional acquisitions will have on Samson's future earnings potential and stock
performance.
Select financial information (year-end 2005) for Samson and Wellborn is outlined below:
Samson:
Sales: $75,000,000
Assets: $135,000,000
Liabilities: $95,000,000
Equity: $60,000,000
Wellborn:
It is the beginning of 2006, and Davidson wants use the above data to identify which will
have the greatest expected returns. She must determine which valuation model(s) is most
appropriate for these two securities. Also, Davidson must forecast sustainable growth rates
for each of the companies to assess whether or not they would fit within the fund's
investment parameters.
Using the Gordon growth model (GGM), what is the equity risk premium?
A) 2.75%.
B) 3.25%.
C) 5.50%.
Explanation
The GGM calculates the risk premium using forward-looking or expectational data. The
equity risk premium is estimated as the one-year forecasted dividend yield on market
index, plus the consensus long-term earnings growth rate, minus the long-term
government bond yield. Note that because equities are assumed to have a long duration,
the long-term government bond yield serves as the proxy for the risk-free rate.
A) $27.69.
B) $27.58.
C) $25.29.
Explanation
As a part of her analysis, Davidson needs to calculate return on equity for both potential
investments. What is last year's return on equity (ROE) for Samson shares?
A) 6.5%.
B) 3.5%.
C) 9.5%.
Explanation
ROE = (net income / sales) × (sales / total assets) × (total assets / stockholders'
equity)
Davidson determines that over the past three years, Samson has maintained an average net
profit margin of 8 percent, a total asset turnover of 1.6, and a leverage ratio (equity
multiplier) of 1.39. Assuming Samson continues to distribute 35 percent of its earnings as
dividends, Samson's estimated sustainable growth rate (SGR) is:
A) 6.2%.
B) 17.8%.
C) 11.6%.
Explanation
Utilizing the PRAT model, where SGR is a function of profit margin (P), the retention rate
(R), asset turnover (A) and financial leverage (T):
g=P×R×A×T
A) $30.60.
B) $25.39.
C) $33.28.
Explanation
First estimate the amount of each of the next two dividends and the terminal value. The
current value is the sum of the present value of these cash flows, discounted at 8.5%.
1.20 1.04(1.44)
1.44
V0 = + +
1.085 2 2
(1.085) (0.085−0.04)(1.085)
V0 = 30.60
Suppose the equity required rate of return is 10%, the dividend just paid is $1.00 and
dividends are expected to grow at an annual rate of 6% forever. What is the expected price
at the end of year 2?
A) $29.78.
B) $28.09.
C) $27.07.
Explanation
The terminal value is $29.78, and that is the price an investor should be willing to pay at
the end of year 2. The correct answer is shown below.
Year Dividend
1 $1.0600
2 $1.1236
3 $1.1910
Which of the following is NOT a component of the sustainable growth rate formula using the
DuPont model?
A) EBIT/interest expense.
B) Net income/sales.
C) Earnings retention ratio.
Explanation
SGR = b × ROE
where:
The SGR is important because it tells us how quickly a firm can grow with internally
generated funds. A firm's rate of growth is a function of both its earnings retention and its
return on equity. ROE can be estimated with the DuPont formula, which presents the
relationship between margin, sales, and leverage as determinants of ROE. In the 3-part
version of the DuPont model: ROE = (NI/sales)(sales/assets)(assets/equity)
The risk-free rate is 3.6%, and Dorgan estimates the stock market's equity risk premium as
7.5%.
Using only the data presented above, can Dorgan create a Gordon Growth model for:
A) Yes Yes
B) No No
C) Yes No
Explanation
To calculate a growth rate using the Gordon Growth model, we use four variables (one
being the growth rate itself). If we have any three of the variables, we can solve for the
fourth. The four variables are: stock price, dividend, required return, and dividend growth
rate. The data presented are sufficient for the calculation of three of the variables for both
companies.
Benson Orchards
We know the most recent dividend and the estimate stock return. From the P/E ratio and
the trailing profits, we can determine the stock price. From those three pieces of data, we
can calculate the dividend growth rate.
Terra Firma
We have the dividend. We can determine the stock price by dividing market value by
shares outstanding. We can derive the estimated stock return using the capital asset
pricing model. From those three statistics, we can create a Gordon Growth model and
solve for the dividend-growth rate.
An analyst has forecast that Hapex Company, which currently pays a dividend of $6.00, will
grow at a rate of 8%, declining to 5% over the next two years, and remain at that rate
thereafter. If the required return is 10%, based on an H-model what is the current value of
Hapex shares?
A) $126.24.
B) $129.60.
C) $131.17.
Explanation
Based on this information and the Gordon growth model, what is the firm's justified trailing
price to earnings (P/E) ratio?
A) 11.3.
B) 8.9.
C) 11.9.
Explanation
Based on the dividend discount model, what is the firm's assumed growth rate?
A) 12.4%.
B) 8.6%.
C) 10.9%.
Explanation
The assumed growth rate is 10.9%:
One of the limitations of the dividend discount models (DDMs) is that they:
Explanation
DDMs are very sensitive to the growth and required return assumptions, and it is often
wise to interpret the value as a range rather than a precise dollar amount. There are
versions of DDM models that can be applied to companies transitioning from rapid growth
to moderate growth, etc.
Supergro has current dividends of $1, current earnings of $3, and a sustainable growth rate
of 10%. What is Supergro's return on equity?
A) 20%.
B) 12%.
C) 15%.
Explanation
The ROE for Supergro can be determined by solving for ROE in the sustainable growth
formula:
Which of the following is least likely a potential problem associated with the three-stage
dividend discount model (DDM)? The:
A) beta in the stable period is too high, resulting in an extremely low stock value.
high-growth and transitional periods are too long, resulting in an extremely high
B)
stock value.
C) stable period payout ratio may be too high resulting in an extremely low value.
Explanation
If the stable period payout ratio is too low it may result in an extremely low value because
the terminal value will be lower due to the smaller dividends being paid out.
Which of the following would be least appropriate to value using the Gordon growth model?
Explanation
Supergro has current dividends of $1, current earnings of $3, and a return on equity of 16%,
what is its sustainable growth rate?
A) 12.2%.
B) 10.7%.
C) 8.9%.
Explanation
g = (1 – 1/3)(0.16) = 0.107
(Module 20.3, LOS 20.p)
If an investor were attempting to capture an asset's alpha returns, the expected holding
period return (HPR) would be:
Explanation
Alpha returns are returns in addition to the required returns, so the expected HPR would
be higher than the required return.
GreenGrow, Inc., has current dividends of $2.00, current earnings of $4.00 and a return on
equity of 16%. What is GreenGrow's sustainable growth rate?
A) 6%.
B) 9%.
C) 8%.
Explanation
g = [1 – ($2/$4)](0.16) = 8%
(Module 20.3, LOS 20.p)
Question #126 of 135 Question ID: 1472849
The Gordon growth model is most likely to produce useful results when the dividend growth
rate is:
A) negative.
B) greater than the required rate of return.
C) equal to the required rate of return.
Explanation
The Gordon growth model P0 = DPS1/ (r - g) will not work if the growth rate is greater than
or equal to the required rate of return. Negative growth rates are acceptable in the
Gordon growth model.
A team of analysts at WSM investments are currently analyzing the equity value of Shotput
Inc., which they believe may be a potential takeover target for some of its rivals. Three of the
analysts, Jeff Capes, CFA, Sven Karlson, CFA, and Zydrunas Savickas, CFA, are using the
dividend discount model to try to value the company.
Jeff Capes, CFA, decided to use the constant growth Dividend Discount Model (DDM) to
estimate the equity value. He is using the following information from Shotput's financial
statements for the year just ended:
Income Statement $m
Revenues 850
COGS 580
SG&A 200
Depreciation expense 50
Net income 10
Dividend 6
Balance Sheet $m
Cash 10
Prepaid expenses 50
Equity 204
In order to calculate Return on Equity, Jeff calculates and uses the opening equity figure of
$200m.
Capes has identified a company in the same industry, Discus Inc., which has the same size
and risk characteristics as Shotput. He has decided to use the following information on
Discus to estimate a required return for equity holders of Shotput:
Capes is also interested in calculating the present value of growth opportunities (PVGO) for
Shotput. He is proposing to use the last dividend paid by Shotput and divide it by the
required rate of return to get the value of its assets in place, and compare this to the
fundamental value to get PVGO.
Sven Karlson, CFA, is also estimating an equity value for Shotput using the DDM. He has
estimated a required return for equity of 11% using the Capital Asset Pricing Model. He has
also picked up the dividends just paid as $6m from the financial statements.
Karlson, however, is uncertain about how dividends will grow and feels that Shotput has a
competitive advantage over its rivals in the short term, which will lead to increased dividend
growth for the next few years. He has therefore assumed that for the first three years the
dividend growth rate will be 7% p.a., and then will decline linearly over the next six years to
2% p.a., a growth rate that will then be sustained for the foreseeable future.
Zydrunas Savickas, however, has questioned the use of the DDM for the purposes of their
research. They are hoping to present their findings to one of Shotput's competitors who they
feel may be in a position to launch a takeover bid and realize a gain from Shotput's current
undervaluation.
Savickas states, "While I accept that a benefit of the dividend discount model is that the
resulting valuation is not very sensitive to changes in the required rate of return assumption,
as we are looking at a potential takeover, it may be more appropriate to consider a free cash
flow model. The dividend discount model is most appropriate from the perspective of a
minority shareholder."
Using Shotput's financial statements and Jeff Cape's estimates, calculate an equity value for
Shotput using the constant growth DDM:
A) $60.0m.
B) $61.2m.
C) $66.7m.
Explanation
P0 = D0 (1 + g) / (r – g)
r = d0(1 + g) / P0 + g
Calculate an equity value using the assumptions made by Karlson (to the nearest $m):
A) $73m.
B) $79m.
C) $87m.
Explanation
This is three-stage growth with linear decline during the second stage.
P3 = $83.3m + $12.25m
P3 = $95.55m
PV = $16.73m
P0 = $69.87m + $16.73m
He is correct about the minority perspective, but not the sensitivity to the
A)
required rate of return assumption.
He is correct about the minority perspective and the required rate of return
B)
assumption.
C) He is incorrect in both statements.
Explanation
The DDM is more appropriate for a minority shareholder. After a takeover, the acquirer
will have control over the dividend policy and hence a FCF model is more appropriate.
However, a DDM valuation is very sensitive to changes in the input assumptions.
What adjustment to his calculation method does Capes need to make in to correctly
calculate PVGO?
The value of assets in place is given by the previous dividend multiplied by one
A)
plus the sustainable growth rate divided by the required rate of return.
The value of assets in place is given by earnings divided by the required rate of
B)
return.
The value of assets in place is given by earnings divided by the required rate of
C)
return minus the sustainable growth rate.
Explanation
The value of assets in place is E / r. The difference between this value and the fundamental
value is PVGO.
A) 6.3.
B) 4.0.
C) 6.0.
Explanation
The dividend payout ratio (1 – b) is 0.60, so the retention ratio (b) is 0.4.
(0.60) (1 + 0.05)
= 6.30
0.15 − 0.05
Which of the following groups of statistics provides enough data to calculate an implied
return for a stock using the two-stage DDM?
Short-term growth rate, long-term growth rate, stock price, trailing 12-month
A)
profits.
P/E ratio, trailing 12-month profits, short-term PEG ratio, long-term PEG ratio,
B)
yield.
C) Yield, stock price, historical dividend-growth rate, historical profit-growth rate.
Explanation
To calculate an implied return using the two-stage DDM, we need the stock price, the
dividend, a short-term growth rate, and a long-term growth rate. In the correct answer, we
can derive the stock price from the P/E ratio and profits, then derive the dividend from the
price and the yield. Given the P/E ratio, we can also distill growth rates using the PEG
ratios. Admittedly, earnings-growth rates aren't the same as dividend-growth rates, but
analysts routinely use either in their models. More to the point, this is the only answer in
which we can come up with even imperfect data for all the needed variables. One choice
does not provide us with a way to find the dividend. The other option does not give us the
needed short-term and long-term growth rates.
The three-stage dividend discount model (DDM) allows for an initial period of:
high growth, a transitional period of stable growth and a final declining growth
A)
phase.
stable growth, a transitional period of high growth and a final declining growth
B)
phase.
high growth, a transitional period of declining growth and a final stable growth
C)
phase.
Explanation
The three-stage DDM combines the features of the two-stage DDM and the H model. It
allows for an initial period of high growth, a transitional period of declining growth and a
final stable growth phase.
Explanation
Sustainable growth is the rate of earnings growth that can be maintained indefinitely
without the addition of new equity capital.
Q-Partners is expected to have earnings in ten years of $12 per share, a dividend payout
ratio of 50%, and a required return of 11%. At that time, ROE is expected to fall to 8% in
perpetuity and the trailing P/E ratio is forecasted to be eight times earnings. The terminal
value at the end of ten years using the P/E multiple approach and DDM is closest to:
A) 96.32 85.14
B) 96.00 89.14
C) 96.32 85.71
Explanation
Terminal Value
= P/E × EPS
= 8 × 12 = 96
D10 = 0.5 × 12 = 6
g = 0.50 × 0.08 = 4%
D10 (1 + g)
P10 =
r − g
6 (1.04)
=
(0.11 − 0.04)
= 89.14