1

Population Modelling:
General:

3 types:

• Discrete Malthusian Population Modelling

• Logistic (Verhulst)
• Lokta-Volterra Population Model (predator-prey population model)

Population models are not perfect but can be helpful

Models are simplified versions of reality.

All models work with discrete (not continuous) data. End time points. Not concerned with
between points. Thus can’t work with derivatives but only average gradients.
ie. Ends and beginnings of years not in the middle of a year.

Discrete Malthusian Population Modelling

• Models population size compared with food supply.

• Looks for critical point where food supply cannot keep up with population growth.
(The Malthusian Trap)
• At this point population begins to decline and equilibrium is re-established.

Assumptions:

• Population growth is geometric.

• Population rate of increase is not linked to size of population
• Food growth is linear.
• Population growth (geometric) will eventually surpass food growth (linear),

Shortcomings:

• Population growth is not exponential in all human populations (Europe decreasing)

• Food growth is not necessarily linear (Factory farming, genetic modification).
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Population Growth:

Recursive:

First order differential equation of form:

𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝐾𝐾𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 + 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛

But K= Percentage growth rate expressed in decimal form(r) 𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 − 𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏

𝒓𝒓 =
𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏
𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑟𝑟𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 + 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛

𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 (𝑟𝑟 + 1) Make r the subject of the formula:

If constant (c) added (ie. Immigration and emigration (excluding births and deaths)) then:

𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑟𝑟(𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 + 1) + 𝑐𝑐 (difficult to get this into explicit form)

General / Explicit formulae:

When you start with first term as 𝑇𝑇0 : 𝐴𝐴 = 𝑃𝑃(1 + 𝑖𝑖)𝑛𝑛 𝑈𝑈𝑛𝑛 = 𝑘𝑘 𝑛𝑛 𝑈𝑈0

When you start with first term as 𝑇𝑇1 : 𝑇𝑇𝑛𝑛 = 𝑎𝑎𝑟𝑟 𝑛𝑛−1 𝑈𝑈𝑛𝑛 = 𝑘𝑘 𝑛𝑛−1 𝑈𝑈1

Steady State/ Point of equilibrium ( P*)

Population size is constant.

𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛

If 𝑥𝑥 is the number of individuals that have to be removed to maintain steady state then to
determine 𝑥𝑥:

𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 (𝑟𝑟 + 1) − 𝑥𝑥

Ie. 𝑃𝑃1 = 𝑃𝑃0 (𝑟𝑟 + 1) − 𝑥𝑥

But for steady state 𝑃𝑃1 = 𝑃𝑃0

thus 𝑃𝑃0 = 𝑃𝑃0 (𝑟𝑟 + 1) − 𝑥𝑥

then sub in 𝑃𝑃0 and 𝑟𝑟 and solve for 𝑥𝑥

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Natural Increase in Population (I):

I= number of births – Number of deaths

𝐼𝐼 = 𝑏𝑏 − 𝑑𝑑
𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏ℎ𝑠𝑠 𝑏𝑏
𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵ℎ 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 = 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠
= 𝑁𝑁

𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩 𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓 = (Proportion of females in total population)(Number of surviving births per

female)

𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑ℎ𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑑

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷ℎ 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 = =
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑁𝑁

If species has a short life cycle then death rate is 1. Certain they die!

1
If a certain species lives for 10 years then its annual death rate is
10
𝟏𝟏
If a certain species lives for c years then it’s annual death rate is
𝒄𝒄

If a certain species lives for less than a year then its annual death rate is 1.

Intrinsic Growth Rate/ biotic potential/ natural growth rate/ reproduction rate (r)

Growth rate when there are no constraints (everything is just peachy)

In ideal conditions Between time k and m:

Doesn’t often happen because life is hard: 𝑷𝑷𝒌𝒌 = Population at time k.

𝑷𝑷𝒌𝒌 − 𝑷𝑷𝒎𝒎
𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 1 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 ∆𝑷𝑷 =
𝑟𝑟 = 𝒌𝒌 − 𝒎𝒎
𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠
∆𝑷𝑷 is not the growth rate.
𝐼𝐼
𝑟𝑟 = 𝑁𝑁
It is an average rate of change.
𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏ℎ𝑠𝑠−𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑ℎ𝑠𝑠
𝑟𝑟 = 𝑁𝑁 It is not constant in Malthusian Growth

𝒓𝒓 = 𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃 𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓 − 𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅 𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓 Between time n+1 and time n:

𝒓𝒓 = 𝒃𝒃 − 𝒅𝒅 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀ℎ𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛

∆𝑃𝑃 =
𝑛𝑛 + 1 − 𝑛𝑛
𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑
𝒓𝒓 =
𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑 𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔
∆𝑃𝑃 = 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛
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EXAMPLE 1

In Parkhurst, a rouge population of 400 wild spaniels is increasing at an alarming rate

of 12% per year.

Determine the number of spaniels in Parkhurst and surrounds after 8 years using:

(a) Malthusian Recursive Formula

(b) Compound Interest Formula

(c) Geometric Sequence Formula

If you don’t get the same answers you have a problem.

You can use any formulae unless specified by the question.

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Example 2 (From Textbook Ex 1.1 no 5)

Answers:
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EXAMPLE 3 (IEB 2012)

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EXAMPLE 4 (Exercise 1.1; Page 146, No 2)

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EXAMPLE 5 (Exercise 1.1; Page 146, No 4)

Create a general solution in explicit form for the Malthusian Model given as a difference
equation.

EXAMPLE 6 (Exercise 1.1; Page 146, No 8)

Mindbourne Maths Modelling Textbook,

Ex 1, Pg132..the whole darn thing!
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The Discrete Logistic Population Model (Verhulst Model)

This model aimed to compensate for flaws within the Malthusian Model.

Flaws of Malthusian Model:

• Assumes growth rate is constant at the intrinsic growth rate (r).

Ie. 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑟𝑟𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 + 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛
• The assumption that 𝑟𝑟 remains constant is based on the assumption that death rates
and birth rates remain constant.
• When a population hits the Malthusian trap its population collapses and then growth
begins again at the intrinsic growth rate.
• The Malthusian Model stated that growth rate of a population is independent of
the density of the population.

The Logistic Model recognises that in reality:

Growth rate of a population does not remain constant, but that it slows down as the
population increases.

The environment restricts the growth of the population. The maximum population an
environment can support is called the carrying capacity (𝐾𝐾) of the environment.

Unlike in the Malthusian Model, the growth rate slows down and does not always collapse
dramatically.

Initially a population is small and its growth rate is not restricted by its environment. Initially
a population grows at its intrinsic growth rate(𝑟𝑟). Thus the initial growth of a population is
similar to that in Malthusian Growth.

As the population increases, competition for food, water and an increase in the ability for
diseases to spread leads to birth rate slowing down and death rate increasing. Thus the
∆𝑃𝑃
logistic growth rate � 𝑃𝑃 � of the population decreases.

The growth rate of a population reaches zero when the population reaches the carrying
capacity (K) of the environment.

Steady state (equilibrium) is reached at K.

Population Growth forms an S-Shape curve (Sigmoidal Curve) and has a limit (K).
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K is an asymptote of the logistics growth curve. i.e As 𝑛𝑛 tends to ∞, 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 tends to K.

∆𝑷𝑷
for Malthusian Growth
𝑷𝑷

∆𝑷𝑷 𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨 𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓(𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈) 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑

=
𝑷𝑷 𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊

Between time k and m:

𝑷𝑷𝒌𝒌 − 𝑷𝑷𝒎𝒎
∆𝑷𝑷 𝒌𝒌 − 𝒎𝒎
=
𝑷𝑷 𝑷𝑷
�
𝒌𝒌+𝒎𝒎
�
𝟐𝟐

∆𝑷𝑷
𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓 𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝒊𝒊𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴
𝑷𝑷
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Example

A population growing according to the Malthusian Model is given in the table below
𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 −𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏
𝑷𝑷𝟎𝟎 = 𝟐𝟐; 𝒓𝒓 = 𝟎𝟎. 𝟕𝟕𝟕𝟕 𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 = 𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏 (𝟏𝟏 + 𝒓𝒓) ∴ 𝒓𝒓 = 𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏

𝒓𝒓 = intrinsic growth ∆𝑷𝑷 Points (𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏 ;

∆𝑷𝑷
)
rate= (logistic growth 𝑷𝑷
𝑷𝑷
𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 − 𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏 rate)
n 𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏 (smoothed growth
𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏 rate)
(years)
𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 − 𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏−𝟏𝟏
𝟐𝟐
𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏

0 2
6,125−2
3,5−2 2
1 3,5 =0,75 3,5 (3,5; 0,5892857143)
2
=0,5892857143
10,71875−3,5
6,125−3,5 2
2 6,125 =0,75 6,125 (6,125; 0,5892857143)
3,5
=0,5892857143
18,7578125−6,125
10,71875 − 6,125 2 (10,71875;
3 10,71875 6,125
=0,75
10.71875 0,5892857143)
=0,5892857143
32.82617188−10.71875
18,7578125 − 10,718752 2 (18,7578125;
4 18,7578125 2
=0,75
18.7578125 0,5892857143)
=0,5892857143
32,82617188 − 18,7578125
5 32,82617188 2
=0,75

(a) Plot the graph of 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣 𝑛𝑛 on the axes below. Label the coordinates of all points from the
table above.

Graph to right:

𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 = 𝑃𝑃(1 + 𝑖𝑖)𝑛𝑛

𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 = 2(1 + 0.75)𝑛𝑛

 12

(b) Complete the given table and try to understand your solutions according to the points
you have plotted.

∆𝑷𝑷 𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨𝑨 𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓(𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈) 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑𝒑

KEY IDEA: =
𝑷𝑷 𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒎𝒎𝒆𝒆 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊

∆𝑃𝑃
(c) Use your last column to plot the Points (𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 ;
𝑃𝑃
) on the axes below.

Malthusian Model

• Growth is constant regardless of population size

∆𝑃𝑃
• Rate of population growth � 𝑃𝑃 � remains constant regardless of population size (P).
 13

Logistic Growth Rate

∆𝑃𝑃
• Population growth rate � 𝑃𝑃 � decreases at a constant rate as P increases.

−(𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔ℎ 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟)

• The gradient 𝑚𝑚 =
𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐
−𝑟𝑟
• i.e 𝑚𝑚 =
𝐾𝐾
• Growth rate is zero at 𝐾𝐾

• Maximum growth rate is 𝑟𝑟.

∆𝑃𝑃
𝑃𝑃
• (the gradient of the straight line above) is constant.
𝑃𝑃
∆𝑷𝑷
If determining growth rate ( ) at 𝒕𝒕 = 𝒍𝒍, where 𝒍𝒍 is midway between 𝒌𝒌 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝒎𝒎
𝑷𝑷

𝑷𝑷𝒌𝒌 − 𝑷𝑷𝒎𝒎
∆𝑷𝑷 𝒌𝒌 − 𝒎𝒎
𝒓𝒓 = =
𝑷𝑷 𝑷𝑷𝒍𝒍

∆𝑷𝑷
𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅 𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏 𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓 𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳 𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴
𝑷𝑷
If we wanted the Growth Rate of a Population “at” 𝑇𝑇2 :

𝑷𝑷𝟑𝟑 −𝑷𝑷𝟏𝟏 𝑷𝑷𝟑𝟑 −𝑷𝑷𝟏𝟏

∆𝑷𝑷/𝑷𝑷 =
𝟑𝟑−𝟏𝟏
= 𝟐𝟐
𝑷𝑷𝟐𝟐 𝑷𝑷𝟐𝟐
 14

Problems with Logistic Model

It depends on being able to determine the carrying capacity of an environment. The

development of a value for carrying capacity (K) generally assumes that the population stays
the same and that the environment stays the same.

In reality, however, these parameters often change

The Logistic Model Formula (Given on Formula Sheet)

𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛
𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 + 𝑟𝑟𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 (1 − ) 𝑘𝑘 = Carrying capacity
𝐾𝐾

𝑟𝑟 = Intrinsic growth rate

The Derivation of the Logistic Formula

Using the equation of the straight line above, define ∆𝑃𝑃 in terms of 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 , 𝐾𝐾 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑟𝑟 .

But remember ∆𝑃𝑃 is an average gradient

Thus in 1 time unit:

∆𝑃𝑃 = 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛

 15

∴ 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 =

𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛
∴ 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 + 𝑟𝑟𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 (1 − )
𝐾𝐾

The above formula tells us that the growth rate of a population increasing logistically is
𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛
𝑟𝑟(1 − )
𝐾𝐾

EXAMPLE 1

A population (𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 ) of 8 baboons grows logistically at a rate of 40% per annum

in a small game reserve which has a carrying capacity of 50 baboons.

(a) Determine the formula for this populations logistic growth.

(b) Hence, complete the first two columns of the table below with the aid of your calculator:

∆𝑷𝑷
∆𝑷𝑷 Points (𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏 ; )
n (years) 𝑷𝑷𝒏𝒏 (logistic growth rate) 𝑷𝑷
𝑷𝑷

10

15

20
 16

(c) Plot the graph of 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣 𝑛𝑛 on the axes below. Label the coordinates of all points from the
above table.

(d) Using your graph and table above complete the last two columns of the table.

∆𝑃𝑃
(e) Population growth rate � 𝑃𝑃 � decreases at a constant rate as P increases.
∆𝑃𝑃
The relationship of 𝑃𝑃
against P produces a straight line (𝑦𝑦 = 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 + 𝑐𝑐) with a

negative gradient..
−𝑟𝑟
On this line: 𝑚𝑚 = ; 𝑐𝑐 = 𝑟𝑟
𝐾𝐾
∆𝑃𝑃
State the equation of the line produced by of against P in the form 𝑦𝑦 = 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 + 𝑐𝑐 and plot it on
𝑃𝑃
the axes below:
 17

∆𝑃𝑃
(f) Use your last column to plot the Points (𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 ; ) and verify they lie around the
𝑃𝑃
straight line you drew in (e).

(g) (1) After how many years did this baboon population reach its
carrying capacity?

(2) Verify, using your calculator, that the population of baboons

never exceeds the carrying capacity.
 18

EXAMPLE 2

A population (𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 ) of 300 kudus grows logistically at a rate of 25% per population cycle
in a newly established game reserve which has a carrying capacity of 4000 kudus.

(a) Determine with the aid of your calculator the value of:

(1) 𝑃𝑃1 (2) 𝑃𝑃5 (3) 𝑃𝑃10

(4) 𝑃𝑃15 (5) 𝑃𝑃20

(b) After approximately how many population cycles did this kudu population reach its
carrying capacity?
 19

EXAMPLE 3

A population of buffalo in a game reserve numbers 125 individuals 11 years after buffalo
were introduced into the reserve. After 12 years there are 150 buffalo in the reserve.
The intrinsic growth rate of buffalo is 30% per annum.

Determine the maximum number of buffalo this reserve has the capacity for, assuming the
growth of the buffalo population is logistic.
 20

EXAMPLE 4

Determine the value of 𝑟𝑟 if 𝑃𝑃5 = 1000, 𝑃𝑃6 = 1200 and 𝐾𝐾 = 3000.

EXAMPLE 5

∆𝑃𝑃
Determine the value of 𝐾𝐾 if the equation of the line of best fit for 𝑃𝑃
versus 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛
is 𝑦𝑦 = −0,0023𝑥𝑥 + 0,05
 21

EXAMPLE 6 [IEB 2008]

Solutions:

6.2
 22

6.3 Method 1
Use 2 points from the table close to your line of best fit
∆𝑃𝑃
on your graph of 𝑃𝑃
versus 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 to determine 𝑟𝑟 and 𝐾𝐾 manually.

Method 2
∆𝑃𝑃
Use the stats mode on your calculator. Enter the data from the table of 𝑃𝑃
versus 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛

and determine 𝑟𝑟 and 𝑚𝑚. Hence determine 𝐾𝐾.

 23

EXAMPLE 7 [IEB 2008]

Solutions:

Complete AP Maths Textbook Exercise 2.1 Pg 158

 24

Lokta-Volterra Population Model (Predator-Prey Population Model)

More sophisticated than previous two models.

It provides for the interactions of:

• Predator and prey

• Herbivore and plant
• Parasite and host

Only able to accommodate one predator and one prey species:

In Predator-Prey Notation:

The population of prey is denoted by 𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛 ( 𝑅𝑅 is for Rabbits)

The population of predators is denoted by 𝐹𝐹𝑛𝑛 ( 𝐹𝐹 is for Fox)

𝑎𝑎 is the intrinsic growth rate ( referred to as 𝑟𝑟 in the previous 2 models).

a is the birth rate- one does not have to consider death rate when calculating it

𝑏𝑏 is the per capita rate of fatal attacks

𝑐𝑐 is the death rate of the predators

Three different Population Scenarios for Prey (Rabbits)

1. Unlimited food supply and no predators

Malthusian Model

Growth is exponential

Malthusian Language: 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 (𝑟𝑟 + 1)

Predator-Prey Language: 𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛 (𝑎𝑎 + 1)

 25

2. Limited food supply and no predators

Logistic Model

Growth is sigmoidal (s-shaped)

𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛
Logistic Language: 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 + 𝑟𝑟𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 (1 − )
𝐾𝐾

𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛
Predator-Prey Language: 𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛 + 𝑎𝑎𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛 (1 − )
𝐾𝐾

3. Limited food supply AND predators

Predator Prey (Lokta-Volterra) population model

Growth of species relative to each other forms a spiral curve

3
Describe the changes in
both both predator and prey
4 2 populations from Stage 1
through to Stage 5.
5

1
 26

According to the Predator-Prey Model the number of Prey (rabbits) in the next
population cycle is:

𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏
𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 = 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 + 𝒂𝒂𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 �𝟏𝟏 − � − 𝒃𝒃. 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 . 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 (given on Information Sheet)
𝑲𝑲

Growth in prey (rabbit) population number of deaths in prey (rabbit)

according to Logistic Model population caused by one predator

𝑎𝑎 = the intrinsic growth rate of prey (r) 𝑏𝑏 = per capita rate of fatal attacks

𝑎𝑎 = % female x litter size x number 𝐹𝐹𝑛𝑛 = the predator(fox) population at 𝑛𝑛.

of litters per time period x
survival rate 𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛 = the prey (rabbit) population at 𝑛𝑛.
NB. When working
out a, unlike when working out
r in Malthusian Model, death rate
does not have to be taken into account
as 𝒃𝒃. 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 . 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 takes death into account.

According to the Predator-Prey Model the number of Prey (foxy woxys) in the next
population cycle is:

𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 = 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 + 𝒇𝒇. 𝒃𝒃. 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 . 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 − 𝒄𝒄. 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 (given on Information Sheet)dr

The reproductive growth of the fox population The natural decrease in prey
numbers

𝑓𝑓 = the efficiency rate at which predators can 𝑐𝑐 = natural death rate

turn prey into population growth by catching of predators
1
the prey and then having babies (𝑓𝑓 is a constant 𝑐𝑐 = 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐
for each specific predator – prey relationship)

𝑏𝑏 = per capita rate of fatal attacks 𝑐𝑐. 𝐹𝐹𝑛𝑛 = number foxes that die
in 1 time period

𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛 = the prey (rabbit) population at 𝑛𝑛.

𝑏𝑏 × 𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛 = number of prey killed in given time period
 27

When M predators are hunted or killed illegally or culled per period then:

𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 = 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 + 𝒇𝒇. 𝒃𝒃. 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 . 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 − 𝒄𝒄. 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 − 𝑴𝑴

Equilibrium

Equilibrium point is reached when both predator and prey populations are stable.

Ie. 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 = 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 and 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 = 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏

(You can memorise the formula below but rather just use above principles)

It can be shown that the predator- prey populations will reach equilibrium when:
𝒄𝒄
The prey population: 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 = and
𝒇𝒇.𝒃𝒃

𝒂𝒂 𝒄𝒄
The predator population 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 = �𝟏𝟏 − 𝒇𝒇.𝒃𝒃.𝒌𝒌�
𝒃𝒃
 28

Graphing of Populations

Two main types of Graphs

Type 1: Phase Plotting

• Plots Prey Numbers against Predator Numbers

• Prey on Horizontal Axis and Predator on Vertical Axis
• Generally leads to a spiral plot.
• The further apart points are the more dramatically the predator and prey populations are
changing.
• Closer together points indicate stable populations heading towards equilibrium.

• You have to be able to identify:

• Initial Points of Populations: This is the point at the beginning of the spiral. Generally fairly
isolated.
• Position of the stable point (equilibrium point): This is the densest congregation of points at
the centre of the spiral.
• The domain and range where populations increase or decrease.

Examine the Phase Plot above and hence determine:

(a) the initial number of predators and prey.

(b) the number of predators and prey when equilibrium is reached

(c) the domain and range where

 29

(1) predators and prey are increasing.

(2) predators and prey are decreasing.

The figure below from your AP Textbook explains population trends in various quadrants:

Type 2: Oscillating Plot

This is the plotting of prey and predator populations against time.

You have to be able to identify:

• Initial Points of Populations. Points furthest left.

• Position of the stable point (equilibrium point). The horizontal asymptote that the functions
tend towards.

Characteristics of Oscillating Plot:

• As the name implies the functions oscillate in a wave formation.

• Oscillations (amplitudes) are initially large but flatten out towards the equilibrium
point (horizontal asymptote)
• The waves are in phase with each other. The predator peaks and trough come slightly
after the prey peaks and troughs
 30

See Examples on Pg 168 of AP Textbook

Example 1

Examine the Oscillating Plot above and hence determine:

(a) the initial number of predators and prey.

(b) the number of predators and prey when equilibrium is reached

 31

Example 2

Examine the Phase Plot above and hence determine:

(a) the initial number of foxes and rabbits.

(b) the number of foxes and rabbits when equilibrium is reached

(c) the domain and range where

(1) rabbits are increasing and foxes are decreasing.

(2) foxes are increasing and rabbits are decreasing.

 32

Example 3

Examine the Oscillating Plot above and hence determine:

(a) the initial number of rabbits and foxes.

(b) the number of rabbits and foxes when equilibrium is reached

Check that your answers for Example 2 and Example 3 are approximately the same.
 33

EXAMPLE 1 [IEB 2010]

Solutions:
34
 35

EXAMPLE 2 [IEB 2010]

 36

Solutions
 37

EXAMPLE 3 [IEB 2008]

jj
 38

Solution for Example 3

 39

EXAMPLE 4 [IEB 2009]

 40

Solutions for EXAMPLE 4

 41

Example 5 (IEB 2011)

42
 43

Solutions to Example 5
 44

Example 6: IEB 2012

Solutions to IEB 2012

 45

Important difference when calculating r in the Malthusian Model and when

calculating a in the Predator –Prey Model.
For Malthusian:
• 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑃𝑛𝑛 (𝑟𝑟 + 1)
 46

• 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵ℎ 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 = (Proportion of females in total population)(Number of surviving births

per female)
1
• death rate is 𝑐𝑐
𝒓𝒓 = 𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃 𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓 − 𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅 𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓

i.e

Malthusian:
For a) above:

• Birth rate= (Proportion of females in total population)(Number of surviving

births per female)
= 0.6 × 3 × 4 × 0.8 = 5,76
1 1
Death rate = 𝑐𝑐 = 7
1
Growth Rate= Birth rate-death rate= 5,76 − 7 = 5,62

For Predator –Prey Model

According to the Predator-Prey Model the number of Prey (rabbits) in the next
population cycle is:
 47

𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏
𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏+𝟏𝟏 = 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 + 𝒂𝒂𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 �𝟏𝟏 − � − 𝒃𝒃. 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 . 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 (given on Information Sheet)
𝑲𝑲

Growth in prey (rabbit) population number of deaths in prey (rabbit)

according to Logistic Model population caused by one predator

𝑎𝑎 = the intrinsic growth rate of prey (r) 𝑏𝑏 = per capita rate of fatal attacks
𝑎𝑎 is same as birth rate in this model

𝑎𝑎 = % female x litter size x number 𝐹𝐹𝑛𝑛 = the predator(fox) population at 𝑛𝑛.

of litters per time period x
survival rate 𝑅𝑅𝑛𝑛 = the prey (rabbit) population at 𝑛𝑛.
NB. When working
out a, unlike when working out
r in Malthusian Model, death rate
does not have to be taken into account
as 𝒃𝒃. 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 . 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏 takes death into account.

Example of finding a in Predator-Prey(PTO)

2017 Prelim (My question and memo were correct)

QUESTION 4
• In a certain National Park in Namibia there are at present 8 000 Cape
Ground Squirrels
 48

• The carrying capacity is 30% more than the present number.

• The females form about 65% of these squirrels, but only alpha females, which are
30% of the females, mate.
• The alpha females have 5 litters per year and each litter usually has an average of 3
kits (a kit is a baby squirrel).
• About 50% of the kits survive and reach maturity.
• The Red Jackal is the main predator of the Cape Ground Squirrel.
• There are currently 450 Red Jackals in the National Park and 80% of the
Red Jackal population are female.
• The female jackals only have one litter per year.
• The parameters b = 0,0003 and f = 0,45 are given.

(c) Calculate the annual intrinsic growth rate for the squirrels.
(Answer correct to 3 decimal digits.) (4)

Solution:

You do not need death rate to death rate into account as taken into account in 𝒃𝒃. 𝑹𝑹𝒏𝒏 . 𝑭𝑭𝒏𝒏
Thus:
𝑎𝑎 = 0.65 × 0.3 × 5 × 3 × 0.5 = 1,4625

From AP Maths Textbook Complete Exercise 3.1 Pg 169 and Ex 3.2 Pg 178