STATE COUNCIL OF HIGHER EDUCATION FOR VIRGINIA

Virginia Enrollment
Demand Projection
for
2001-2010

JULY 17, 2001

A SCHEV REPORT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report details where Virginia’s system of higher education is

today, and where it will likely be in 2010, with respect to the demand for
higher education. It is the first in a five part series that, when completed in
November 2001, will comprise Phase I of the State Council’s Systemwide
Master Plan for Virginia Higher Education. As with all good strategic
planning efforts, the Council’s Master Plan is intended to reflect an organic
and continuous process. The primary purpose of Phase I is to detail the
demand for, and supply of, higher education services in Virginia through
2010 and identify any gaps between the two. This information will set the
stage for Phase II of the Systemwide Master Plan. In Phase II, the Council
will develop and propose strategic planning initiatives aimed at addressing
potential gaps between demand and supply and insuring that Virginia’s
system of higher education continues to be one of the strongest and most
highly respected in the nation.

Each biennium the State Council works with Virginia’s public

colleges and universities, and the Governor’s Department of Planning and
Budget to develop student enrollment projections for each institution of
higher education. These projections detail the number of students each
institution expects to enroll over a six-year planning horizon based on
current admissions trends, capacity, and institution policies regarding
enrollment growth. Because they are constrained by capacity and
institutional policy considerations, however, these student enrollment
projections do not actually address the issue of future enrollment demand
– the number of qualified students who would otherwise be expected to
seek admission to Virginia’s colleges and universities if space were
available. To more adequately address this issue, provide information on
system-wide (public and private) enrollment, and obtain more information
on the likely characteristics and needs of future students through 2010, the
State Council has augmented its current enrollment projection process by
creating an enrollment demand projection model. This report is based on
an analysis of the findings from that model.
What this analysis shows is that:

· Between 2000 and 2010, enrollment demand (undergraduate and

graduate) across Virginia’s system of higher education (public four-year,
public two-year, private non-profit, and private for-profit institutions)
will increase by approximately 38,296 students. The public institutions
will account for 83 percent of this increase, or approximately 31,611
students. This contrasts with a 19,977 student increase in systemwide
enrollment, and 22,495 student increase in public college and university
enrollment, over the period from 1990 to 2000.

· This increase in enrollment demand is being driven in the main by a

significant increase in the number of 15 to 24 year olds in Virginia.
This “traditional” college age group has a high college enrollment rate
(18.5 percent Virginians 15 to 24 years old attended a Virginia
institution of higher education in fall 2000) and is responsible for the
bulk of college and university enrollments (86 percent in private for
profit institutions, 71 percent in private non-profit, 69 percent in public
four-year, and 50 percent in public two-year institutions in fall 2000).
Also important is the fact that almost all of this growth will take place in
a handful of localities all located in the Interstate 95/Interstate 64
(I-95/I-64) corridor in the eastern portion of the Commonwealth.

· At the same time that Virginia’s population of 15 to 24 year olds will be

increasing, its population of 25 to 44 year olds will be declining. This is
the age group that drives “non-traditional” enrollments in Virginia’s
colleges and universities.

· Those institutions of higher education whose institutional missions are

primarily geared toward serving “traditional” students, and that draw a
large proportion of their students from the I-95/I-64 corridor in the
eastern portion of the Commonwealth, are likely to experience the
greatest increase in enrollment demand. The two categories of
institutions that fit both of these criteria are the public four-year and
private for-profit institutions.
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction ....................................................................................... 1

Where We Are .................................................................................. 1

Public Four-Year Institutions ................................................... 3
Public Two-Year Institutions .................................................... 7
Private Non-Profit Institutions .................................................. 11
Private For-Profit Institutions ................................................... 15
Summary: Where We Are ...................................................... 18

Where We Are Going ........................................................................ 19

Projected Virginia Population - 2000 to 2010 ........................... 19

Age Groups .................................................. 19
Race/Ethnicity Groups .................................... 22
Regional ........................................................ 25

Enrollment Demand Projection for 2001 through 2010 ............. 27

Public Four-Year Institutions ........................... 28
Public Two-Year Institutions ............................ 31
Private Non-Profit Institutions .......................... 34
Private For-Protit Institutions ........................... 37
Summary: Where We Are Going ..................... 40

Implications ....................................................................................... 42

Appendices ....................................................................................... 44

Appendix A: Virginia Institutions of Higher Education ............ 46

Public Four-Year Institutions ...................... 46
Public Two-Year Institutions ....................... 47
Private Non-Profit Institutions .................... 49
Private Non-Profit Institutions .................... 51

Appendix B: Fall 2000 Higher Education Enrollment Rates

by Age and Race/Ethnicity .............................. 52
All Race/Ethnicity Categories ..................... 52

Appendix C: Enrollment Demand Projection Methodology .... 54

Public Institution Enrollment Demand .......... 54
Private Institution Enrollment Demand ......... 56
INTRODUCTION

Pursuant to statutory mandate,1 each biennium SCHEV works with

Virginia’s public colleges and universities, and the Governor’s Department of
Planning and Budget to develop student enrollment projections for each
institution of higher education.2 These projections detail the number of
students each institution expects to enroll over a six-year planning horizon
based on current admissions trends, capacity, and institution policies
regarding enrollment growth. Because they are constrained by capacity and
institutional policy considerations, however, these student enrollment
projections do not actually address the issue of future enrollment demand –
the number of qualified students who would otherwise be expected to seek
admission to Virginia’s colleges and universities if space were available. To
more adequately address this issue, provide information on system-wide
(public and private) enrollment, and obtain more information on the likely
characteristics and needs of future students, SCHEV has augmented its
current enrollment projection process by creating an enrollment demand
projection model. A description of that model and the results obtained from
it are provided in the section entitled Where We Are Going. To better
understand where we are going, however, perhaps we should first take a
look at Where We Are.

WHERE WE ARE
Virginia’s system of higher education is comprised of eighty-eight
colleges and universities in four sectors (public four-year, public two-year,
private non-profit, and private for-profit).3 In fall 2000, these institutions of
higher education had combined enrollments of 372,307 students.4 This
represents a 19,977 student, or six percent, increase over 1990, with almost
all of the increase occurring since 1997 (see Figure 1).

1
Section 23-9.6:1.4 of the Code of Virginia tasks the State Council to, “…review and approve or disapprove
all enrollment projections proposed by each public institution of higher education.”
2
SCHEV, in collaboration with staff from the institutions, the House Appropriations and Senate Finance
Committees, and the Department of Planning and Budget, develops six-year projections, corresponding
to the Commonwealth’s six-year capital planning process, for each public four-year institution and
Richard Bland College. Currently, projections are not made for the Virginia Community College System
or Virginia’s private institutions of higher education.
3
For a complete listing of these institutions, see Appendix A.
4
Data source: SCHEV student enrollment database. SCHEV’s student enrollment database contains
comprehensive data on current and prior enrollments in Virginia’s public and private institutions of
higher education. 1
 Figure 1: Systemwide Headcount Enrollment, 1990-2000

375,000
370,000
365,000
360,000
355,000
350,000
345,000
340,000
335,000
90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20
A graphical depiction of fall 2000 enrollments showing the proportion of
students in public four-year, public two-year, private non-profit, and private
for-profit institutions is provided in Figure 2.5

Figure 2: Enrollment Distribution by Institution Type, Fall 2000 Headcount

2% Public 4 yr.
14%

Public 2 yr.
47%
Private
Non-Profit
37%
Private
For-Profit

2 5
ibid.
 PUBLIC FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS
Virginia has fifteen public four-year institutions of higher education.
Six of these are doctoral degree granting institutions and nine are
comprehensive institutions. In fall 2000, these institutions enrolled 175,742
students, a nearly ten percent, or 15,542 student, increase over 1990
enrollment. Looking more closely at fall 2000 enrollments in Virginia’s public
four-year institutions, we find that they were largely made up of Virginia
residents (78 percent), full-time students6 (74 percent), and undergraduates
(75 percent).7

As shown in Figure 3, another characteristic of fall 2000 enrollments

in Virginia’s public four-year institutions is that they were predominantly
composed of “traditional” students, students who are 24 years of age or
younger.8 As will be discussed more fully later, this is an important
characteristic because traditional students enrolled at a four-year institution
are more likely to live on campus and more likely to be enrolled as full-time,
degree-seeking students. As a result, they are more likely to place significant
demands on an institution’s capital resources (e.g., residence halls,
classrooms, and laboratories).
Figure 3: 4-year Publics, Age Distribution, Fall 2000 Headcount

8% 5% age 24 or less

18% age 25-34

age 35-44
69%
age 45 or greater

6
A full-time student is an undergraduate student who takes 15 or more credit hours each semester, or a
graduate student who takes 12 or more credit hours each semester.
7
supra, note 4.
8
ibid. 3
 Table 1 takes the data displayed in Figure 3 and breaks them
down according to student level (e.g., freshmen, sophomores, first-year
graduate, etc.). As shown in this table, freshmen and sophomores were
almost exclusively comprised of traditional students (97 and 93 percent
respectively) in fall 2000. However, as one might expect, the modal age
for graduate students tended to be older, typically in the 25 to 34 age
category.

Table 1: 4-year Publics, Fall 2000 Headcount Enrollment by Student Level and Age

24 or less 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 or greater

Freshmen 97.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3%

Sophomore 93.4% 4.5% 1.5% 0.6%

Junior 84.5% 10.1% 3.8% 1.6%

Senior/Fifth 73.1% 17.6% 6.4% 2.9%

Unclassified Undergraduate 31.0% 28.9% 22.8% 17.3%

Unclassified Graduate/First Professional 8.3% 35.6% 26.0% 30.1%

First Professional 43.5% 51.0% 4.7% 0.9%

Graduate - First Year 25.0% 46.5% 17.6% 10.9%

Graduate - Advanced 5.7% 53.8% 22.5% 18.0%

Figure 4 depicts the distribution of enrollments in public four-year institu-

tions across various race/ethnicity categories.9 Here we see that in fall
2000, 74 percent of enrolled students were White, 16 percent Black, 7
percent Asian or Pacific Islander, 3 percent Hispanic, and less than 1
percent Native American.

9
4 ibid.
 Figure 4: 4-year Publics, Race/Ethnicity Distribution, Fall 2000 Headcount

16%
0% B lack
7% Native American
3%
Asian
Hispanic
74% White

Figure 5 provides information on the service area of Virginia’s public

four-year institutions.10 This figure depicts a map of Virginia divided into
seven regions: Central Virginia, Eastern Shore, Hampton Roads, Northern
Virginia, Southern Piedmont, Southwest Virginia, and the Valley.

Figure 5: 4-year Publics, Fall 2000 Service Area

10
ibid. 5
 As can be seen from this map, nearly 82 percent of the in-state
students enrolled in Virginia public four-year institutions in fall 2000 were
drawn from the I-95/I-64 corridor comprised of Northern Virginia, Central
Virginia, and Hampton Roads. The importance of this characteristic will
become apparent later when we discuss those portions of the Commonwealth
that are most likely to see significant population growth between 2000 and
2010. The remaining 18 percent of fall 2000 in-state enrollments were drawn
from the Valley (10 percent), Southern Piedmont (5 percent), Southwest
Virginia (3 percent), and Eastern Shore (less than 1 percent).

Table 2 takes the data depicted in Figure 5 and disaggregates them

into institution-specific service areas. As this table demonstrates, whereas
some institutions tend to draw their students primarily from specific regions of
the state (i.e., Christopher Newport, Norfolk State, and Old Dominion
Universities from Hampton Roads; George Mason and Mary Washington
Universities from Northern Virginia; and the University of Virginia at Wise
from Southwest Virginia), others tend to have more broadly dispersed service
areas (i.e., the College of William and Mary, Longwood College, Radford
University, Virginia Military Institute, and Virginia Tech).

Table 2: 4-year Publics, Fall 2000 Service Area

CNU CWM GMU JMU LC
Central Virginia 15.6% 19.0% 2.7% 17.7% 28.8%
Eastern Shore 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7%
Hampton Roads 73.3% 36.5% 2.4% 14.4% 15.6%
Northern Virginia 7.9% 34.0% 92.4% 42.5% 23.0%
Southern Piedmont 0.9% 3.7% 0.5% 4.9% 26.1%
Southwest Virginia 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3%
Valley 1.3% 5.3% 2.0% 19.8% 5.4%

MWC NSU ODU RU UVA

Central Virginia 13.8% 7.8% 7.4% 11.4% 26.7%
Eastern Shore 0.2% 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3%
Hampton Roads 7.9% 83.8% 73.8% 10.7% 12.7%
Northern Virginia 70.1% 3.5% 7.4% 19.2% 42.5%
Southern Piedmont 2.6% 3.3% 4.2% 10.0% 6.7%
Southwest Virginia 0.3% 0.1% 2.5% 11.0% 2.2%
Valley 5.2% 0.6% 3.5% 37.3% 8.9%

UVA-W VCU VMI VA Tech VSU

Central Virginia 4.7% 74.4% 27.5% 14.3% 43.1%
Eastern Shore 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4%
Hampton Roads 3.4% 9.0% 18.3% 12.9% 11.4%
Northern Virginia 5.0% 11.4% 27.1% 35.7% 6.0%
Southern Piedmont 2.5% 2.8% 8.0% 6.9% 5.7%
Southwest Virginia 81.6% 0.4% 3.7% 5.0% 0.1%
6 Valley 2.8% 1.8% 15.0% 24.8% 1.3%
 PUBLIC TWO-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

Virginia has twenty-four public two-year institutions of higher

education. Twenty-three of these are community colleges and one, Richard
Bland College, is a two-year junior college. In fall 2000, these institutions
enrolled 138,039 students, a more than five percent, or 6,953 student,
increase over 1990 enrollment. Largely reflecting the mission of the
community colleges – to provide community-based higher education and
workforce development programs – fall 2000 enrollment in public two-year
institutions tended to be much more heavily weighted toward in-state
students (94 percent), part-time students (71 percent), and undergraduates
(100 percent).11

Also, in contrast to the public four-year institutions, enrollment in public

two-year institutions tended to be more evenly distributed across a broad range
of age categories. As shown in Figure 6, enrollment in fall 2000 was evenly split
between traditional students (24 years of age or less) and non-traditional
students (25 years of age or more).12

Figure 6: 2-year Publics, Age Distribution, Fall 2000 Headcount

11% age 24 or less

16% age 25-34

50% age 35-44

23% age 45 or
greater

11
ibid.
12
ibid. 7
 Breaking these data down according to student level, as show in
Table 3, further confirms the more even distribution of enrollment across
various age categories. As opposed to the public four-year institutions
where almost all freshmen and sophomores fell into the traditional category,
in the public two-year institutions more than two-fifths of freshmen and
three-fifths of sophomores fell into the non-traditional category.

Table 3: 2-year Publics, Fall 2000 Headcount Enrollment by Student Level

24 or less 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 or greater

Freshmen 58.2% 23.4% 12.6% 5.8%

Sophomore 37.9% 30.6% 20.2% 11.3%

Unclassified Undergraduate 50.5% 18.9% 15.9% 14.7%

Figure 7 shows the distribution of enrollments in public

two-year institutions in fall 2000 across various race/ethnicity
categories.13 In this case, the data indicate that 70 percent of enrolled
students were White, 19 percent Black, 6 percent Asian or Pacific
Islander, 4 percent Hispanic, 1 percent Native American.

Figure 7: 2-year Publics, Race/Ethnicity Distribution, Fall 2000 Headcount

Black
19%
Nativ e
1% Am erican
6%
Asian
4%
Hispanic
70%
W hite

8 13
ibid.
 Figure 8 graphically depicts the service area for Virginia’s public two-
year institutions.14 Consistent with the Community Colleges’ mission of
providing local access to higher education services, the service area for the
public two-year institutions tends to be more broadly dispersed across the
Commonwealth than that of the public four-year institutions. For instance,
whereas 82 percent of the in-state students enrolled in public four-year
institutions in fall 2000 were from the I-95/I-64 corridor, only 67 percent of the
in-state enrollments in the public two-year institutions were. The remaining 33
percent of fall 2000 in-state enrollments came from the Valley (13 percent),
Southern Piedmont (11 percent), Southwest Virginia (9 percent), and the
Eastern Shore (less than 1 percent).

Figure 8: 2-year Publics, Fall 2000 Service Area

14
ibid. 9
 Table 4 further disaggregates these data, detailing the specific
service areas for the Virginia Community College System and
Richard Bland College.

Table 4: 2-year Publics, Fall 2000 Service Area

VCCS RBC

Central Virginia 16.3% 98.1%

Eastern Shore 0.6% 0.0%

Hampton Roads 20.5% 0.6%

Northern Virginia 29.9% 0.3%

Southern Piedmont 11.6% 1.0%

Southwest Virginia 8.5% 0.0%

Valley 12.6% 0.0%

10
 P RIVAT E N O N -P RO F I T I N S T I T U T I O N S

Virginia has thirty-five private non-profit institutions of higher

education. In combination, these institutions enrolled 50,635 students in fall
2000. This level of enrollment represents a 12 percent, or 6,833 student,
decline from 1990. However, it is important to note that this decline is
largely attributable to a single institution. Exclusive of that single institution,
the private non-profit institutions grew by 14 percent, or 5,508 students
between 1990 and 2000.

Except for the fact that private non-profit institutions enrolled a

smaller proportion of in-state students in fall 2000 (53 percent as opposed
to 79 percent in the public four-year institutions), their enrollment
characteristics were very similar to the public four-year institutions.15
Like the public four-year institutions, fall 2000 enrollments at private
non-profit institutions were largely full-time (80 percent), with a balance
between undergraduate and graduate students (79 undergraduate percent

Figure 9: Private Non-Profits, Age Distribution, Fall 2000 Headcount

6% age 24 or less
9%
age 25-34
14%
age 35-44

71% age 45 or
greater

compared to 21 percent graduate students). Also like the public four-year

institutions, fall 2000 enrollments at Virginia’s private non-profit institutions
were heavily weighted toward traditional students (see Figure 9).

15 ibid.
11
 As shown in Table 5, this was again particularly true with respect to
freshmen and sophomore enrollments, those students most likely to reside
on campus.16

Table 5: Private Non-Profits, Fall 2000 Headcount by Student Level and Age

24 or less 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 or greater

Freshman 90.9% 4.4% 3.1% 1.6%

Sophomore 89.4% 4.8% 3.5% 2.3%

Junior 83.6% 8.1% 5.5% 2.9%

Senior/Fifth 74.7% 12.0% 8.5% 4.8%

Unclassified Undergraduate 53.1% 20.8% 14.1% 2.0%

Unclassified Graduate/First Professional 6.9% 32.9% 25.9% 4.3%

First Professional 33.7% 43.8% 12.7% 9.8%

Graduate - First Year 15.9% 41.7% 25.1% 7.3%

Graduate - Advanced 4.4% 34.5% 35.3% 5.8%

12 16
ibid.
 Figure 10 graphically depicts the distribution of fall 2000
enrollments in the private non-profit institutions across various race/ethnicity
categories. In this case, enrollments were comprised of 72 percent White,
23 percent Black, 3 percent Asian or Pacific Islander, 2 percent Hispanic,
and less than 1 percent Native American.17

Figure 10: Private Non-Profits, Race/Ethnicity Distribution, Fall 2000 Headcount

Black
23%
Nativ e
Am erican
0%
3% Asian
2%
Hispanic
72%
W hite

17
ibid. 13
 Figure 11 shows the service area for Virginia’s private non-profit
institutions.18 As can be seen from this map, these institutions drew a much
more significant portion of their in-state fall 2000 enrollments from the
southern and western regions of the Commonwealth, with only 60 percent
of their in-state enrollment coming from the I-95/I-64 corridor.
The remaining 40 percent of fall 2000 in-state enrollments came from the
Valley (19 percent), Southern Piedmont (16 percent), Southwest Virginia
(4 percent), and the Eastern Shore (less than 1 percent).

Figure 11: Private Non-Profits, Fall 2000 Service Area

14 18
ibid.
 PRIVATE FOR-PROFIT INSTITUTIONS19

Virginia has fourteen private for-profit institutions of higher

education. In fall 2000, these institutions enrolled 7,891 students, a
142 percent, or 4,630 student, increase over 1990 enrollment.
Fifty-nine percent of these enrollments were comprised of in-state students,
54 percent were full-time, and 87 percent were undergraduate.20 As shown
in Figure 12, the overwhelming majority of these students were traditional,
with the largest number falling between the ages of 20 and 24.21

Figure 12: Private For-Profits, Age Distribution, Fall 2000 Headcount

2% age 24 or less
8% 4%
age 25-34

age 35-44

86% age 45 or
greater

19
In this instance, and all others within this report, “Private For-Profit” refers only to those for-profit
institutions incorporated in Virginia.
20
supra, note 4.
21
ibid. 15
 Table 6 breaks these numbers down according to student level.
Table 6: Private For-Profits, Fall 2000 Headcount Enrollment by Student Level and Age

24 or less 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 or greater

Freshman 96.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Sophomore 90.5% 6.4% 2.2% 0.8%

Unclassified Undergraduate 17.1% 46.4% 31.6% 4.9%

Unclassified Graduate/First Professional 0.0% 43.5% 30.4% 26.1%

Graduate - First Year 1.9% 45.9% 30.3% 21.9%

Figure 13 breaks down fall 2000 enrollments in the private

for-profit institutions by various race/ethnicity categories. As demonstrated
by this pie chart, fall 2000 enrollments were 61 percent White, 34 percent
Black, 3 percent Asian or Pacific Islander, 2 percent Hispanic, and less than
1 percent Native American.22

Figure 13: Private For-Profits, Race/Ethnicity Distribution, Fall 2000 Headcount

Black

34% Native
American
Asian

61% 0% Hispanic
3%
2%
W hite

16 22
ibid.
 Figure 14 details the service area of the private for-profit institutions
based on their fall 2000 in-state enrollments.23 As demonstrated by this
map, in fall 2000 the private for-profit institutions drew the vast majority of
their in-state enrollments from the Hampton Roads (52 percent) and
Central Virginia (31 percent) regions.

Figure 14: Private For-Profits, Fall 2000 Service Area

17
23
ibid.
 SUMMARY: WHERE WE ARE

• Between 1990 and 2000, system-wide (public four-year, public

two-year, private non-profit, and private for-profit) college and
university enrollments in Virginia increased by 19,977 students, or
six percent. Almost all of that increase occurred in the most recent
period (since 1997).

• Enrollment did not increase evenly across all sectors. While enrollment
in public four-year institutions of higher education increased by
15,542 students (10 percent), enrollment in public two-year institutions
increased by 6,953 students (5 percent), and enrollment in private
for-profit institutions increased by 4,630 students (142 percent),
enrollment in private non-profit institutions decreased by 6,833 students
(-12 percent). It is important to note, however, that the majority of the
enrollment decline in the private non-profit institutions occurred at a
single institution. Exclusive of that institution, the private non-profit
institutions grew by 5,508 students (14 percent).

• Virginia residents comprise 78 percent of the student body at public

four-year institutions, 94 percent at public two-year institutions,
53 percent at private non-profit institutions, and 59 percent at private
for profit institutions.

• Public four-year institutions and private non-profit institutions serve a

largely full-time, degree seeking, “traditional” student population that is
less than 24 years old. Alternatively, public two-year institutions serve a
student population that is largely part-time and evenly divided between
traditional-aged and non-traditional-aged students.

• Public four-year institutions draw 82 percent, and private for-profit

institutions 86 percent, of their enrollment from the I-95/I-64 corridor in
the eastern half of the Commonwealth. Whereas, the service area of
public two-year institutions and private non-profit institutions tends to
be more evenly distributed across the Commonwealth.

18
WHERE WE ARE GOING

All projections can be likened to the Ghost of Christmas Future

from Charles Dickens’ play A Christmas Carol – they tell you what is
likely to happen in the future if things continue on as they have up to today.
If things do not continue on as they have, either by happenstance or
because we decide to achieve a different future as Scrooge did, the future
will diverge from the projection. Put simply, what we do in this section is
take what we know (the student and institutional characteristics described in
the previous section) and combine it with what we think we know (future
changes in population) to shed light on what we would like to know (the
direction and magnitude of future changes in enrollment demand).

PROJECTED VIRGINIA POPULATION – 2000 TO 2010

According to the most recently available U.S. Census Bureau
projections, Virginia’s population will increase by approximately 630,000,
or 9 percent, between 2000 and 2010.24 However, different demographic
subgroups enroll in colleges and universities at different rates. For that
reason, to gain a better understanding of the likely effect that this increase in
population will have on enrollment demand, it is necessary to break it down
into its component parts.
Age Groups

Based on SCHEV’s comprehensive student enrollment database

and U.S. Census data, we know that in the fall of 2000 approximately,
18.5 percent of Virginia’s 15 to 24 year olds, 5.8 percent of 25 to 34 year
olds, 2.9 percent of 35 to 44 year olds, and 1.1 percent of those 45 years
or older attended some Virginia institution of higher education (for a detailed
listing of enrollment rates see Appendix B).25 Figure 15 graphically depicts
the projected population increase between 2000 and 2010 for each of
these age groups.26 Although the 45 and older group is by far the largest
(2.4 million in 2000) and the one projected to increase the most (652,000,
or 27.3 percent, between 2000 and 2010), because of its low college
enrollment rate, it is also the age group that is least likely to have a significant
impact on enrollment demand.

24
U.S. Bureau of the Census, State Population Projections: 1995-2025, 1996. These projections are
derived using a cohort-component method. For a description of this method see Campbell, Paul R.,
1996, Population Projections for States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025, U.S.
Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47. According to its current schedule, the U.S. Bureau
of the Census does not expect to release revised population projections based on the 2000 census until
sometime in 2002.
25
Data source: SCHEV’s student-enrollment database and U.S. Bureau of the Census, State Population
Projections: 1995-2025, Series A. U.S. Census projections for 2000 were used to compute the fall 2000
enrollment rates instead of the 2000 estimate to maintain consistency with the 1995-2025 Series A
population projections used in the enrollment demand projection. The U.S. Bureau of the Census
Series A projection is scheduled to be updated in 2002 to reflect 2000 census data.
19
26
supra, note 24.
 Figure 15: Projected Virginia Population Trends -- 2000 to 2010

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000
15-24
2,000,000 25-34
1,500,000 35-44
45 or greater
1,000,000

500,000

0
00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Figure 16 is identical to Figure 15 except that it excludes the 45

and older age category and focuses on those age groups that exhibit higher
college enrollment rates. What this Figure shows is that 15 to 24 year olds,
the age group with by far the highest college enrollment rate (18.5 percent),
is projected to increase steadily throughout the period. Overall, this group is
projected to increase 16.5 percent, or 156,578, between 2000 and 2010.
As will be discussed at greater length at the end of this report, this
demographic trend has significant implications for enrollment demand in
Virginia. This is particularly true for undergraduate enrollments in the public
four-year and private institutions of higher education, because these
enrollments tend to be much more heavily weighted toward students within
this age category.

20
Figure 16: Projected Virginia Population Trends for 15-24, 25-34, and 35-44 age cohorts only -- 2000 to 2010

1,250,000

1,200,000

1,150,000

1,100,000 15-24
25-34
1,050,000 35-44

1,000,000

950,000

900,000
00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Figure 16 also shows that the primary age cohorts from which
institutions draw their non-traditional students – 25 to 34 year olds and 35
to 44 year olds – are both projected to decline in absolute number between
2000 and 2010. This remains true even though the number of 25 to 34 year
olds is projected to rebound toward the end of the decade. Overall, 25 to
34 year olds are expected to decline by 2.2 percent, or 22,788, between
2000 and 2010 and 35 to 44 year olds by 12.3 percent, or 150,437.
Recall that the college enrollment rate for 25 to 34 year olds was 5.8
percent in fall 2000, whereas the enrollment rate for 35 to 44 year olds was
2.9 percent. These demographic trends also have significant implications for
enrollment demand in Virginia. In this case, the sectors most likely to be
affected are the community colleges, and the public four-year and private
institution graduate programs, as these enrollments tend to include a large
number of students within these age categories.

21
 Race/Ethnicity Groups

We also know from an analysis of SCHEV’s comprehensive

student enrollment database and U.S. Census data, that different racial and
ethnic groups exhibit different higher education enrollment rates.
For example, from fall 2000 data we know that among Virginia residents in
the 15 to 24 year old age group – the age group from which 61 percent of
system-wide enrollments are drawn – approximately 40.0 percent of
Native Americans, 28.7 percent of Asians and Pacific Islanders,
19.9 percent of Whites, 13.1 percent of Blacks, and 12.1 percent of
Hispanics were enrolled in a Virginia institution of higher education.27 Figure
17 takes the population projection for Virginia 15 to 24 year olds depicted
in Figure 16 and breaks it down according to race and ethnicity.28
According to these data, 86,053, or a little more than half, of the
anticipated population increase of 156,578 in this age group between 2000
and 2010 is expected to come from the three racial and ethnic subgroups
that exhibited the highest college enrollment rates in fall 2000.

Figure 17: Projected Demographic Trends by Race/Ethnicity, Virginia 15 to 24 Year Olds

800,000

700,000

600,000
White
500,000 Black
400,000 Nativ e Ame rican
Asian
300,000
Hispanic
200,000

100,000

0
00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

27
supra, note 25.
22 28
supra, note 24.
 Taking a similar look at Virginia residents within the 25 to 34 year old
category – which comprised 19.4 percent of system-wide enrollments in fall
2000 – we find that college enrollment rates by racial and ethnic subgroup in
fall 2000 were approximately 15.7 percent for Native Americans,
9.3 percent for Asians and Pacific Islanders, 5.8 percent for Whites,
5.2 percent for Blacks, and 3.9 percent for Hispanics.29 Figure 18 takes the
population projection for Virginia 25 to 34 year olds depicted in Figure 16
and breaks it down according to race and ethnicity.30 In this case we find that
the three racial and ethnic subgroups exhibiting the highest college enrollment
rates in fall 2000 are projected to decline by 41,510 between 2000 and
2010. This is nearly twice as much as the 22,788 total decline projected for
25 to 34 year olds over the period.

Figure 18: Projected Demographic Trends by Race/Ethnicity, Virginia 15 to 24 Year Olds

800,000

700,000

600,000
White
500,000 Black
400,000 Nativ e Ame rican

300,000 Asian

Hispanic
200,000

100,000

0
00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

29
supra, note 25.
30
supra, note 24. 23
 Figure 19 disaggregates the population projection for Virginia 35 to
44 year olds according to racial and ethnic subgroup.31 Within this age
category, that comprised 10.8 percent of system-wide enrollments in fall
2000, college enrollment rates were 7.3 percent for Native Americans,
3.2 percent for Blacks, 2.8 percent for Asians and Pacific Islanders,
2.8 percent for Whites, and 1.9 percent for Hispanics in fall 2000.
Here the three racial and ethnic subgroups exhibiting the highest college
enrollment rates in fall 2000 are projected to decline by 6,066, a small
fraction of the total 150,437 decline projected for this age group between
2000 and 2010.

Figure 19: Projected Demographic Trends by Race/Ethnicity, Virginia 35 to 44 Year Olds

1,000,000
900,000
800,000 White
700,000
Black
600,000
Native American
500,000
Asian
400,000
Hispanic
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

24 31
ibid.
 Regional

Unfortunately, the U.S. Bureau of the Census’ state population

projections are done at a statewide level and do not provide regional or
county-level detail. However, there are other data sources available that
allow us to shed some light on probable future differences in enrollment
demand by region. Data produced by the Weldon Cooper Center for
Public Service at the University of Virginia on the projected number of high
school seniors by county indicate that between 2000 and 2005, the number
of high school seniors will increase by 5,870 students statewide.32 These
data are significant because, as one might expect, changes in the number of
high school graduates are strongly correlated with changes in the number of
traditional students enrolled in institutions of higher education. A more
striking finding in the Weldon Cooper data, however, is that a mere eight
localities will be responsible for 91 percent of this growth, with most other
localities exhibiting either stagnant or declining numbers of high school
seniors. Each of those eight localities (Chesapeake, Chesterfield, Fairfax,
Henrico, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, and Stafford) is located in
the I-95/I-64 corridor of eastern Virginia.

Because, as was shown in the previous section Where We Are,

different institutions draw their students from different parts of the
Commonwealth, this high degree of regional concentration in the growth of
high school seniors is likely to have differential effects on enrollment
demand. For instance, recall from the earlier section that, whereas public
four-year institutions draw 82 percent, and private for-profit institutions
86 percent, of their in-state enrollments from the I-95/I-64 corridor, public
two-year institutions draw only 67 percent, and private non-profit
institutions only 60 percent of their in-state enrollments from that portion of
the Commonwealth. Figure 20 focuses more precisely on this issue by
ranking institutions according to the proportion of their in-state enrollment
drawn from the eight aforementioned high-growth localities.

32
These data were presented at the February 9, 2001, SCHEV 2001 Enrollment Projection Workshop,
by Dr. Michael A. Spar, Research Associate, Demographics and Workforce Section, Weldon Cooper
Center for Public Service, University of Virginia. 25
 Figure 20: Percentage of Fall 2000 In-State Enrollment Drawn from the Eight Highest Growth Localities

GMU 69.1%

VCU 48.9%

MWC 48.8%

JMU 43.9%

VA Tech 39.4%

VMI 39.1%

UVA 39.0%

LC 35.8%

VCCS 28.6%

VSU 28.2%

CWM 26.2%

RBC 24.8%

RU 22.7%

ODU 19.1%

NSU 18.8%

CNU 11.5%

UVA-W 5.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

26
ENROLLMENT DEMAND PROJECTION FOR 2001 THROUGH 2010

The enrollment demand projection presented below are derived

using data from SCHEV’s comprehensive student-specific enrollment
database and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Series A, state population
projections. The enrollment demand projections are done at a statewide
level for each of the four sectors within Virginia’s system of higher education
(public four-year, public two-year, private non-profit, and private
for-profit). Because of data constraints, slightly different methods were used
to project enrollment demand for public and private institutions of higher
education. A detailed description of those methods is provided in
Appendix C.

Before proceeding, however, a few caveats are in order. First,

SCHEV’s enrollment demand model relies heavily on population
projections provided by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The most current
population projections available from the U.S. Bureau of the Census were
completed in 1996 and are based on updated data from the 1990 census.
State population projections based on 2000 census data will not be
available before 2002.

Second, U.S. Bureau of the Census state population projections

are done at a statewide level and do not provide regional or county level
detail. This means that the enrollment demand projections presented herein
do not reflect regional differences in population growth. The practical
importance of this data limitation is that, enrollment demand projections for
those sectors that disproportionately draw their students from the fastest
growing portions of the state (i.e., the public four-year institutions and the
private for-profit institutions) are likely to somewhat understate actual
enrollment demand. Alternatively, enrollment demand projections for those
sectors that tend to draw a larger proportion of their students from the
slower growing portions of the state (i.e., the public two-year institutions
and the private non-profit institutions) are likely to somewhat overstate
actual enrollment demand.

Third, SCHEV’s enrollment demand projection implicitly relies in

part on the assumption that college enrollment rates for various age and
racial/ethnic groups will remain constant at fall 2000 levels throughout the
forecast horizon of 2001-2010. Although, as can be see in Appendix B,
enrollment rates have in fact remained fairly consistent in recent years, to the
extent that they increase, or decrease, in the future, the projection will tend
to understate, or overstate, future estimates of enrollment demand.

27
 Finally, SCHEV’s enrollment demand projection is also implicitly
dependent, in part, on the assumption that the number of institutions of
higher education in each sector (four-year public, two-year public, private
non-profit, and private for-profit) will remain largely constant at fall 2000
levels. This assumption is fairly consistent with historical reality in all sectors
except one – the private for-profit institutions. Because these institutions
have significantly grown in number in recent years and can reasonably be
anticipated to continue to do so in the future, it is possible that our estimate
of future enrollment demand for this sector is understated.

Public Four-Year Institutions

Our model projects that enrollment demand for Virginia’s public

four-year institutions of higher education will increase from 175,742
students in fall 2000 to approximately 194,641 students in fall 2010. This is
an increase of 18,899 students, or 11 percent. This projection is depicted
graphically in Figure 21, with details provided in Table 7.

Figure 21: 4-year Publics, Enrollment Demand, Fall 2001-2010

2 0 0 ,0 0 0

1 9 0 ,0 0 0

1 8 0 ,0 0 0

A c tu a l
1 7 0 ,0 0 0
P r o je c tio n

1 6 0 ,0 0 0

1 5 0 ,0 0 0

1 4 0 ,0 0 0
90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10
19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

28
 Table 7: 4-year Publics, Enrollment Demand, Fall 2001-2010

Year 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Fall Headcount 176,821 178,264 180,017 182,094 184,421

Change from 2000 (abs.) 1,079 2,522 4,275 6,352 8,679

Change from 2000 (%) 0.6% 1.4% 2.4% 3.6% 4.9%

Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Fall Headcount 186,866 189,236 191,389 193,241 194,641

Change from 2000 (abs.) 11,124 13,494 15,647 17,499 18,899

Change from 2000 (%) 6.3% 7.7% 8.9% 10.0% 10.8%

The projection model also provides important information about

the characteristics of these students. First, they will tend to be younger.
Recall from Figure 3 that in fall 2000, 69 percent of the enrollment in
Virginia’s public four-year institutions was comprised of “traditional”
students 24 years of age or younger. As indicated in Figure 22, by 2010
this percentage will change to 72 percent. This is significant because, as
earlier stated, traditional students enrolled in four-year institutions are more
likely to live on campus and more likely to be enrolled as full-time, degree-
seeking students. As a result, they are more likely to place significant
demands on an institution’s capital resources (dormitory, instructional, and
recreational space).

29
 Figure 22: 4-year Publics, Age Distribution, Fall 2010 Headcount

6% 6% age 24 or less

16% age 25-34

age 35-44

72% age 45 or
greater

A second characteristic of 2010 enrollment is that students will

tend to be more diverse. A comparison of Figure 23 with Figure 4 shows
that, whereas minority racial and ethnic groups comprised 26 percent of
enrollment in the public four-year institutions in fall 2000, they will likely
comprise 28 percent in fall 2010. The largest proportional change will take
place among Asians and Pacific Islanders, a group that exhibited one of the
highest college enrollment rates in fall 2000.

Figure 23: 4-year Publics, Race/Ethnicity Distribution, Fall 2010 Headcount

B la c k
16%
0% Na tiv e
9% A m e ric a n
A s ia n
3%
His p a n ic
72%
W h ite

30
 Public Two-Year Institutions

As shown graphically in Figure 24 and numerically in Table 8,

enrollment demand in public two-year institutions is expected to increase
from 138,039 in fall 2000 to 150,751 in fall 2010. This is an increase of
12,712 or 9 percent. The lower expected growth in enrollment demand for
the public two-year institutions, relative to the public four-year institutions, is
largely attributable to the fact that the public two-year institutions draw a
larger proportion of their enrollment from age groups that are projected to
experience declining population between 2000 and 2010. In addition,
because of changes in racial/ethnic composition, one of the age groups from
which the public two-year institutions draw a significant number of their
students – the 25 to 34 year olds – is also likely to exhibit a decline in
overall college enrollment rates between 2000 and 2010.

Figure 24: 2-year Publics, Enrollment Demand, Fall 2001-2010

1 5 5 ,0 0 0

1 5 0 ,0 0 0

1 4 5 ,0 0 0

1 4 0 ,0 0 0

1 3 5 ,0 0 0
Ac tu a l
P ro je c tio n
1 3 0 ,0 0 0

1 2 5 ,0 0 0

1 2 0 ,0 0 0

1 1 5 ,0 0 0

1 1 0 ,0 0 0
90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10
19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

31
 Table 8: 2-year Publics, Enrollment Demand, Fall 2001-2010

Year 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Fall Headcount 139,759 141,072 142,333 143,738 145,215

Change from 2000 (abs.) 1,720 3,033 4,294 5,699 7,176

Change from 2000 (%) 1.2% 2.2% 3.1% 4.1% 5.2%

Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Fall Headcount 146,639 147,896 148,997 149,981 150,751

Change from 2000 (abs.) 8,600 9,857 10,958 11,942 12,712

Change from 2000 (%) 6.2% 7.1% 7.9% 8.7% 9.2%

Figures 25 and 26 detail the probable age and racial/ethnic

composition of public two-year enrollments in 2010. A comparison of these
figures with Figures 6 and 7 above reveals that the public two-year
institutions will also be serving a younger (the proportion of traditional aged
students will likely increase from 50 to 54 percent) and more diverse
(minority enrollment will likely increase from 30 to 32 percent) student body
in fall 2010 than they did in fall 2000.

Figure 25: 2-year Publics, Age Distribution, Fall 2010 Headcount

12% age 24 or less

13% age 25-34

54% age 35-44

21%
age 45 or
greater

32
 Figure 26: 2-year Publics, Race/Ethnicity, Fall 2010 Headcount

Black
19%
Nativ e
1% American
7% Asian

5% Hispanic
68%
W hite

33
 Private Non-Profit Institutions

SCHEV’s enrollment demand model projects that enrollment demand

in the private non-profit institutions will increase from 50,635 in fall 2000 to
56,203 in 2010. This is an increase of 5,568 students or 11 percent. Figure 27
graphically displays this increase, with numeric detail provided in Table 9. In
this case, the reason that the private non-profit institutions are projected to
grow at a faster rate than the public four-year institutions is because they draw
a larger proportion of their students from the traditional age group – 24 years
of age or less. Recall that this age group is expected to grow significantly in
population between 2000 and 2010 and also exhibits a high college enrollment
rate. At the same time, however, it is important to remember in reference to
the second caveat discussed at the beginning of this section that the private
non-profit institutions also tend to draw a larger proportion of their enrollment
from the slower growing regions of the state. For this reason, and because
SCHEV’s enrollment demand model is based on U.S. Bureau of the Census
population projections that are state-wide and do not account for regional
differences in population growth rates, it is likely that a portion of the increase
in enrollment demand projected for the private non-profit institutions will
actually manifest itself in the public four-year institutions instead.

Figure 27: Private Non-Profits, Enrollment Demand, Fall 2001-2010

6 0 ,0 0 0
5 8 ,0 0 0
5 6 ,0 0 0
5 4 ,0 0 0
A c tu a l
5 2 ,0 0 0 P r o je c t io n
5 0 ,0 0 0
4 8 ,0 0 0
4 6 ,0 0 0
4 4 ,0 0 0
90

93

96

99

02

05

08
19

19

19

19

20

20

20

34
 Table 9: Private Non-Profits, Enrollment Demand, Fall 2001-2010

Year 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Fall Headcount 51,237 51,828 52,488 53,187 53,855

Change from 2000 (abs.) 602 1,193 1,853 2,552 3,220

Change from 2000 (%) 1.2% 2.4% 3.7% 5.1% 6.4%

Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Fall Headcount 54,485 54,952 55,384 55,840 56,203

Change from 2000 (abs.) 3,850 4,317 4,749 5,205 5,568

Change from 2000 (%) 7.7% 8.6% 9.4% 10.3% 11.1%

Figures 28 and 29 detail the probable age and racial/ethnic

composition of fall 2010 enrollments in the private non-profit institutions.
Here again, a comparison with the earlier Figures for fall 2000 (Figures 9
and 10) shows that fall 2010 enrollments will tend to be both younger and
more diverse than in fall 2000.

Figure 28: Private Non-Profits, Age Distribution, Fall 2010 Headcount

age 24 or less
7%
7%
13% age 25-34

age 35-44

73% age 45 or
greater

35
 Figure 29: Private Non-Profits, Race/Ethnicity Distribution, Fall 2010 Headcount

Black
24%
Native
American
0% Asian
4%
3% Hispanic
69%
W hite

36
 Private For-Profit Institutions

Enrollment demand for the private for-profit institutions is

projected to increase from 7,891 students in fall 2000 to 9,008 students
in 2010. This is an increase of 1,117 students or 14 percent. The reason
private for-profit institutions are projected to experience the largest
increase in enrollment demand is that they draw the greatest proportion of
their students from the traditional age group – 24 years of age or less.
Moreover, because the number of institutions in this sector is likely to
continue to increase, it is probable that actual enrollment demand for
private for-profit institutions will be even greater than projected. Future
enrollment demand for the private for-profit institutions is depicted
graphically in Figure 30 and numerically in Table 10.

Figure 30: Private For-Profits, Enrollment Demand, Fall 2001-2010

1 0 ,0 0 0

9 ,0 0 0

8 ,0 0 0

7 ,0 0 0

6 ,0 0 0
A c tu a l
5 ,0 0 0 P r o je c tio n

4 ,0 0 0

3 ,0 0 0

2 ,0 0 0

1 ,0 0 0
90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10
19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

37
 Table 10: Private For-Profits, Enrollment Demand Fall 2001-2010

Year 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Fall Headcount 8,021 8,155 8,287 8,387 8,469

Change from 2000 (abs.) 130 264 396 496 578

Change from 2000 (%) 1.6% 3.3% 5.0% 6.3% 7.3%

Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Fall Headcount 8,561 8,640 8,738 8,866 9,008

Change from 2000 (abs.) 670 749 847 975 1,117

Change from 2000 (%) 8.5% 9.5% 10.7% 12.4% 14.2%

As demonstrated by a comparison of Figures 31 and 32 with

Figures 12 and 13, fall 2010 enrollments in the private for-profit institutions
will also tend to be younger and more diverse than in fall 2000.

Figure 31: Private For-Profits, Age Distribution, Fall 2010 Headcount

7% 3% 2% age 24 or less

age 25-34

age 35-44

age 45 or
88%
greater

38
Figure 32: Private For-Profits, Race/Ethnicity Distribution, Fall 2010 Headcount

Black

Nativ e
36% Am erican
Asian
56%
Hispanic
1%
4%
3% W hite

39
 Summary: Where We Are Going

· The population of 15 to 24 year olds in Virginia is expected to increase

by 156,578 between 2000 and 2010. This “traditional” college age
group exhibits the highest college enrollment rate (18.5 percent of
Virginians in the 15 to 24 age group attended a Virginia institution of
higher education in fall 2000) and comprised 86 percent of enrollments
in private for profit, 71 percent in private non-profit, 69 percent in
public four-year, and 50 percent in public two-year institutions in fall
2000.

· The population of 25 to 34 year olds in Virginia is expected to decline

by 22,788 between 2000 and 2010. 5.8 percent of Virginians in this
age group attended a Virginia institution of higher education in fall 2000
and this age group accounted for 23 percent of public two-year
enrollment, 18 percent of public four-year, 14 percent of private
non-profit, and 8 percent of private for-profit. In addition, among 25
to 34 year olds, the population of those racial and ethnic groups that
exhibit the highest college enrollment rates is expected to decline by
41,510 between 2000 and 2010 – almost twice the decline for the age
group as a whole. This implies that, in addition to declining in absolute
number between 2000 and 2010, the average college enrollment rate
for 25 to 34 year olds is likely to decline as well.

· The population of 35 to 44 year olds in Virginia is expected to decline

by 150,437 between 2000 and 2010. However, this group exhibits a
relatively low college enrollment rate (2.9 percent in fall 2000) and
comprised only 16 percent of public two-year, 9 percent of private
non-profit, 8 percent of public four-year, and 4 percent of private
for-profit enrollments in fall 2000.

· Because the U.S. Bureau of the Census state population projections

used in SCHEV’s enrollment demand model do not contain regional
detail, the enrollment demand model does not take into account likely
regional differentials in population growth. We know from Weldon
Cooper Center estimates of the future number of high school seniors,
however, that only eight counties – all within the I-95/I-64 corridor –
will account for 91 percent of the growth in the number of high school
seniors between 2000 and 2005. The private for-profit and the public
four-year institutions respectively draw 86 and 82 percent of their
in-state enrollments from the I-95/I-64 corridor, whereas the private
non-profit and public two-year institutions draw only 60 and 67
percent, respectively.

40
· SCHEV’s enrollment demand model projects that between 2000 and
2010 enrollment demand will increase: 1) 18,899 students, or
10.8 percent, in the public four-year institutions, 2) 12,712 students, or
9.2 percent, in the public two-year institutions, 3) 5,568 students, or
11.1 percent, in the private non-profit institutions, and 4) 1,117 students,
or 14.2 percent, in the private for-profit institutions. The proportional
increase in each sector is driven largely by the number of students that
sector draws from the rapidly growing 15 to 24, or traditional, age
group.

· Across all sectors of Virginia’s higher education system, enrollments are

likely to become younger and more diverse between 2000 and 2010.

41
IMPLICATIONS

Between 2000 and 2010, enrollment demand across Virginia’s

system of higher education (public four-year, public two-year, private
non-profit, and private for-profit institutions) will increase by approximately
38,296 students. The public institutions will account for 83 percent of this
increase, or approximately 31,611 students. This contrasts with a 22,495
student growth in public college and university enrollment over the prior
decade.

This increase in enrollment demand is being driven in the main by a

significant increase in the number of 15 to 24 year olds in Virginia. This
“traditional” college age group has a high college enrollment rate
(18.5 percent Virginians 15 to 24 years old attended a Virginia institution of
higher education in fall 2000) and is responsible for the bulk of college and
university enrollments (86 percent in private for profit institutions,
71 percent in private non-profit, 69 percent in public four-year, and
50 percent in public two-year institutions in fall 2000). Also important is the
fact that almost all of this growth will take place in a handful of localities in
the I-95/I-64 corridor in the eastern portion of the Commonwealth.

At the same time that Virginia’s population of 15 to 24 year olds

will be increasing, its population of 25 to 44 year olds will be declining. This
is the age group that drives “non-traditional” enrollments in Virginia’s
colleges and universities.

42
There are three major implications that derive from this combination of
factors:
1. Between 2000 and 2010, Virginia’s college and universities will
experience a significant increase in enrollment demand
compared to the prior decade.

2. “Traditional” students – those 24 years of age or younger, who

are generally full-time, residential, and degree seeking – will
account for the bulk of this increase in enrollment demand.
These sudents will place above average demands on
institutions’ capital resources (e.g., resident halls, classrooms,
and recreational facilities). At the same time that enrollment
demand from “traditional” students will be increasing,
enrollment demand from “non-traditional” students – those 25
years of age or older, who are often part-time, non-residential,
and not degree seeking – will likely either remain stable at
current levels or decline.

3. Those institutions of higher education whose institutional

missions are primarily geared toward serving “traditional”
students, and that draw a large proportion of their students
from the I-95/I-64 corridor, are likely to experience the
greatest increase in enrollment demand. The two categories
of institutions that fit both these criteria are the public
four-year and the private for-profit institutions.

43
 APPENDICES

44
45
APPENDIX A: VIRGINIA INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER EDUCATION

PUBLIC FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

Number Institution
1 Christopher Newport University
2 College of William and Mary
3 George Mason University
4 James Madison University
5 Longwood College
6 Mary Washington College
7 Norfolk State University
8 Old Dominion University
9 Radford University
10 University of Virginia
11 University of Virginia’s College at Wise
12 Virginia Commonwealth University
13 Virginia Military Institute
14 Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
15 Virginia State University

46
 PUBLIC TWO-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

Number Institution
1 Blue Ridge Community College
2 Central Virginia Community College
3 Dabney S. Lancaster Community College
4 Danville Community College
5 Eastern Shore Community College
6 Germanna Community College - Locust Grove Campus
7 Germanna Community College - Massaponax Campus
8 J. Sargeant Reynolds Community College - Downtown Campus
9 J. Sargeant Reynolds Community College - Goochland Campus
10 J. Sargeant Reynolds Community College - Henrico Campus
11 John Tyler Community College - Chester Campus
12 John Tyler Community College - Midlothian Campus
13 Lord Fairfax Community College - Fauquier County Campus
14 Lord Fairfax Community College - Middletown Campus
15 Mountain Empire Community College
16 New River Community College
17 Northern Virginia Community College - Alexandria Campus
18 Northern Virginia Community College - Annandale Campus
19 Northern Virginia Community College - Loudoun Campus
20 Northern Virginia Community College - Manassas Campus
21 Northern Virginia Community College - Woodbridge Campus
22 Patrick Henry Community College
23 Paul D. Camp Community College - Franklin Campus
24 Paul D. Camp Community College - Suffolk Campus
25 Piedmont Virginia Community College
26 Rappahannock Community College - Glenns Campus
27 Rappahannock Community College - Warsaw Campus

47
 PUBLIC TWO -YEAR INSTITUTIONS (cont.)

Number Institution
28 Richard Bland College
29 Southside Virginia Community College - Alberta Campus
30 Southside Virginia Community College - Keysville Campus
31 Southwest Virginia Community College
32 Thomas Nelson Community College
33 Tidewater Community College - Chesapeake Campus
34 Tidewater Community College - Norfolk Campus
35 Tidewater Community College - Portsmouth Campus
36 Tidewater Community College - Virginia Beach Campus
37 Virginia Highlands Community College
38 Virginia Western Community College
39 Wytheville Community College

48
PRIVATE NON-PROFIT INSTITUTIONS

Number Institution
1 American Military Institute
2 Atlantic University
3 Averett University
4 Bluefield College
5 Bridgewater College
6 Christendom College
7 College of Health Sciences
8 Eastern Mennonite College
9 Emory and Henry College
10 Ferrum College
11 Hampden-Sydney College
12 Hampton University
13 Hollins College
14 Liberty University
15 Lynchburg College
16 Mary Baldwin College
17 Marymount University
18 Medical College of Hampton Roads, EVMS
19 Presbyterian School for Christian Education
20 Protestant Episcopal Seminary
21 Randolph-Macon Womens College
22 Randolph-Macon College
23 Regent University
24 Roanoke College
25 Saint Pauls College
26 Shenandoah University

49
 PRIVATE NON-PROFIT INSTITUTIONS (cont.)

Number Institution
27 Southern Virginia College
28 Sweet Briar College
29 Union Theological Seminary
30 University of Richmond
31 Virginia Intermont College
32 Virginia Seminary & College
33 Virginia Union University
34 Virginia Wesleyan College
35 Washington & Lee University

50
 PRIVATE FOR-PROFIT INSTITUTIONS

Number Institution
1 Bryant & Stratton College - Hampton Campus
2 Bryant & Stratton College - Richmond Campus
3 Bryant & Stratton College - Virginia Beach Campus
4 Dominion Business School - Harrisonburg
5 Dominion Business School - Staunton
6 ECPI Computer Institute - Richmond Campus
7 ECPI Computer Institute - Roanoke Campus
8 ECPI College of Technology - Virginia Beach Campus
9 ECPI Computer Institute - Hampton Campus
10 Institute of Textile Technology
11 National Business College - Bluefield Campus
12 National Business College - Bristol Campus
13 National Business College - Charlottesville Campus
14 National Business College - Danville Campus
15 National Business College - Harrisonburg Campus
16 National Business College - Lynchburg Campus
17 National Business College - Martinsville Campus
18 National Business College - Roanoke Valley Campus
19 Notre Dame Graduate School of Christendom College
20 World College

51
APPENDIX B: FALL 2000 HIGHER EDUCATION ENROLLMENT RATES BY AGE
AND RACE/ETHNICITY

The tables below detail, by age cohort and racial/ethnic category, the
proportion of Virginians who attended a Virginia public four-year institution
of higher education in fall 2000. These data are derived using SCHEV’s
comprehensive student enrollment database and U.S. Bureau of the Census,
Series A, state population projections. It is important to keep in mind,
however, that because these data do not take into account Virginians
attending out-of-state institutions, and because a small proportion of the
student records in SCHEV’s enrollment database did not contain data on
race or ethnicity, the enrollment rates presented below probably somewhat
understate actual college attendance rates for most age cohort and racial/
ethnic categories.

All Race/Ethnicity Categories:

Age 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

15-24 16.9% 17.5% 17.8% 18.1% 18.5%

25-34 5.9% 5.9% 6.0% 6.0% 5.8%
35-44 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9%
44 and older 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1%

Asian

Age 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

15-24 30.8% 30.0% 29.6% 29.0% 28.7%

25-34 9.1% 9.4% 9.4% 9.5% 9.3%
35-44 2.9% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8%
45 and older 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

Black

Age 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

15-24 11.7% 11.9% 12.3% 12.6% 13.1%

25-34 4.8% 4.9% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2%
35-44 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2%
45 and older 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2%

52
 Hispanic

Age 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

15-24 10.9% 11.3% 11.6% 11.9% 12.1%

25-34 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.9% 3.9%
35-44 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9%
45 and older 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9%

Native American

Age 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

15-24 31.4% 33.8% 39.3% 38.1% 40.0%

25-34 9.5% 12.0% 14.2% 15.8% 15.7%
35-44 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 8.4% 7.3%
45 and older 2.5% 2.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2%

White

Age 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

15-24 18.2% 18.9% 19.3% 19.7% 19.9%

25-34 6.1% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 5.8%
35-44 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8%
45 and older 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%

53
APPENDIX C: ENROLLMENT DEMAND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

PUBLIC INSTITUTION ENROLLMENT DEMAND

Because SCHEV has more comprehensive and consistent data on

enrollment in public institutions of higher education, we were able to use a
detailed input/output model to project enrollment demand for Virginia’s
public four-year and public two-year colleges and universities over the
period from 2001 to 2010. This model uses projections of the number of
new students who are likely to enter each of these two sectors each year
and the number of students who are likely to graduate or otherwise leave
each sector each year to project likely future enrollment levels in each
sector. SCHEV, in combination with Virginia’s public institutions of higher
education and the Department of Planning and Budget, has used a variant
of this model for the last six years to meet its statutory responsibility to
provide student enrollment projections. The model has performed quite
successfully – exhibiting less than one percent system-wide forecast errors
each year.

Mathematically the model can be depicted:

HCENRit = HCENRit-1 + NEWSTDit - GRAD/LEFTit-1

Where: HCENRit = fall headcount enrollment by sector (i) in year (t)

HCENRit-1 = fall headcount enrollment by sector (i) in the
prior year (t-1)
NEWSTDit = new students by sector (i) in year (t)
GRAD/LEFTit-1 = students who graduated or left by
sector (i) in the prior year (t-1)

To derive a projection of the number of new students each year

we use U.S. Bureau of the Census, Series A, state population projections
to calculate annual growth rates for thirteen age groups (10 to 14, 15 to 19,
20 to 24, 25 to 29, 30 to 34, 35 to 39, 40 to 44, 45 to 49, 50 to 54, 55 to
59, 60 to 64, 65 to 69, and 70 and above) and five racial/ethnic categories
(Asian and Pacific Islander, Black, Hispanic, Native American, and White).
The reason we employ such a large number of age groups is that, as was
shown in the Where We Are Going – Projected Virginia Population –
2000 to 2010 section, the demographic trends and college participation
rates exhibited by these groups are highly varied and, as a result, pooling
them could result in misleading conclusions. We then apply these annual
growth rates to the number of new students admitted in the prior year,
disaggregated according to student level (i.e., freshmen, sophomore, junior,
senior and fifth year, unclassified undergraduate, first professional, first-year

54
graduate, advanced graduate, and unclassified graduate) age group, and
racial/ethnic group.

Mathematically:

NEWSTD ijkzt=(NEWSTD ijkzt-1 )(Djkt )

Where: NEWSTDijkzt= new students by sector (i), age cohort (j),

racial/ethnic group (k), and student level
(z) in year (t)

NEWSTDijkz = new students by sector (i), age cohort (j),

racial/ethnic group (k), and student
level (z) in the prior year (t-1)

Djkt = the annual growth rate for individuals by age cohort (j),
and racial/ethnic group (k) in year (t)

To derive a projection of the number of students who graduate or

otherwise leave each year we take advantage of SCHEV’s detailed student
database to track aggregate progression and retention of students across the
nine student levels detailed above. The progression and retention rates used
for the projection are for fall 1999 to fall 2000, the most recently available
data.

Mathematically:

GRAD/LEFTit-1 = HCENRit-1 - å STDizt-1

Where: GRAD/LEFTit-1 = students who graduated or left by

sector (i) in the prior year (t-1)

HCENRit-1 = fall headcount enrollment by sector (i) in the

prior year (t-1)

STDizt-1 = students by sector (i) and student level (z) in the

prior year (t-1) who either remained in level or
progressed to another level in year (t)

55
 PRIVATE INSTITUTION ENROLLMENT DEMAND

To project future enrollment demand in the private non-profit and

private for profit institutions we again use U.S. Bureau of the Census,
Series A, state population projections to calculate annual growth rates for
13 age groups (10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-
49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, and 70 and above) and five racial/ethnic
categories (Asian and Pacific Islander, Black, Hispanic, Native American,
and White). In this case, however, we apply those annual growth rates to
all students enrolled in the prior year by age and racial/ethnic group, rather
than just new students. In this way, enrollment is determined directly as
opposed to through an input/output model. This more generalized approach
is necessary because comprehensive student-specific data on year-to-year
changes in new admissions is not available for all of these institutions.
Although this more generalized approach cannot track the effect on overall
enrollments of non-linear changes in the number of new students as accu-
rately as the input/output model used for the public institutions, it has,
nonetheless, been used elsewhere with good results.33
Mathematically:

HCENR ijkt = (HCENR ijkt-1)(D jkt)

Where: HCENRijkt = students by sector (i), age cohort (j), and

racial/ethnic group (k) in year (t)
HCENRijkt-1 = students by sector (i), age cohort (j), and
racial/ethnic group (k) in the prior year
(t-1)

Djkt = the annual growth rate for individuals by age cohort (j),
and racial/ethnic group (k) in year (t)

33
See Carnevale, Anthony P., and Fry, Richard A., Closing the Great Divide – Can We Achieve Equity When
56 Generation Y Goes to College?, Education Testing Service, 2000.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT:

Fletcher Mangum, Ph.D

Chief Economist
804-786-9781
mangum@schev.edu

or

G. Paul Nardo
Director of Communications
804-225-2627
nardo@schev.edu
 STATE COUNCIL OF HIGHER EDUCATION FOR VIRGINIA

www.schev.edu
JAMES MONROE BUILDING PHONE: (804) 225–2600
101 NORTH FOURTEENTH STREET FAX: (804) 225–2604
RICHMOND, VIRGINIA 23219 TDD: (804) 371–8017

Phyllis Palmiero, Executive Director