Globalisationandthe Current Economic Crisis
Globalisationandthe Current Economic Crisis
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Gina IOAN1
Abstract. One of the hottest topics of economic research, not only is the economic crisis facing the
world economy since 2007. Once the economic shock has spread quickly has spread quickly since
the third quarter of 2008, international macroeconomic context known negative changes. The illusion
that we live in times of certainty, shared, unfortunately, many economists, was shattered by the
financial and economic crisis that has destroyed the economic base of the globalized world.
Therefore, for most economists, the crisis came unexpectedly, as a big surprise. The phenomenon of
globalization as the economic crisis became the most discussed and debated in the current
phenomena. Globalization is an economic and political reality quite complex, resulting in profound
changes in social and economic interdependence between states created. Economic crisis has revealed
a system of crisis manifested in a less or more latent: technological crisis, the crisis model of
sustainable development, the demographic crisis.
Keywords: crisis; globalization
JEL Classification: E0
1 Introduction
The phenomenon of globalization is, in terms of conceptual, due to the interaction
of economic, cultural, social and political dimensions, one of the most complex
challenges of humanity. From an economic perspective, globalization refers to the
size of financial interdependence between the states, international flows of
technology and capital.
The importance and complexity of the phenomenon of globalization is reflected in
a heterogeneity of opinions and perceptions, the extensive and often contradictory
doctrinal discussions.
Globalization, viewed from the perspective quantitative refers to changes in the
volume and structure of the exchange of goods and services, international
production and migration increasingly stronger labor.
In qualitative terms, globalization refers to the size of human knowledge,
influenced by scientific and technical progress and its impact on the economic,
social and political environment.
The most important approach to globalization is the internationalization. This
refers to the increasing interdependence between countries of the world, manifested
mainly by the interdependence of markets, economic sectors, where geographical
distances are no longer insurmountable constraints.
However, increased globalization has given rise and a feeling of uncertainty about
the ability of states to defend their interests in the global market events, while also
creating a perception of control at the expense of nation-state phenomenon.
1
Assistant Professor, PhD, Danubius University of Galati, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Romania,
Address: 3 Galati Blvd, Galati, Romania, tel: +40372 361 102, fax: +40372 361 290, e-mail:
gina_ioan@univ-danubius.ro
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Skeptics and cautious analysts have made and are still working a series of
questions such as: the extent to which globalization can affect financial and
economic stability, if it is necessary the existence of supervisory and more cautious
control institutions or if actual markets conditions are able to create their own
equilibrium mechanisms.
The driving force of globalization is, obviously, the economic vector which is at
the heart of this phenomenon. The economic factor is that determined the idea of
internationalization, the globalization of trade, capital flows liberalization.
David Korten, a vehement critic of globalization, believes that it can not be
reduced to an era of financial domination, without reference only to the size of the
economic or financial indicators.
Even if economic vector does not provide solutions to all problems, it is the main
reason of globalization, assuring the struggle for the limited resources and
providing opportunities for capital accumulation, resulting in the statutory
economic realities.
As for the ideological dispute, debate on the effects of globalization take place on
two levels. On one side are vehement opponents of globalization who works to
control or end the global economic integration. One example it is the developing
countries or those that were and maybe still in transition to a market economy, as is
the case of Romania, who do not know the full benefits of globalization, the
process destroying the social equilibrium rather and promoting the establishment of
a state of turmoil and economic, social, political, cultural instability.
On the other hand, supporters of globalization think that global economic
integration that occurs due to increased economic efficiency, the spread of values
and standards worldwide. Not surprisingly, most advocates of globalization belong
to countries with advanced economies that have experienced the full benefits.
In Thomas Friedman`s opinion globalization is an overarching international system
shaping national policies on international relations in almost all states. Friedman
believes that globalization is the foundation of free market capitalism. The savings
will be much prosperous if markets are left having more power and becoming
more open to free trade and competition. In his view, it means, widespread
economic and political system compatible with the free market.
As defined by the International Monetary Fund, globalization is increasing
economic interdependence of all countries through increased volume and
diversification of goods and services cross-border transactions, international capital
flows and rapid global distribution of technologies.
Besides many definitions of globalization, it is invoked too often, for everything
that happens bad in the world economy, and other times it is praised for greater
economic efficiency and global convergence, sometimes in spite of lower benefits
than costs.
Paul Krugman, in the preface of the book "Winners and Losers in Globalization" of
the Dehesa Guillermo, considers globalization an issue that gives rise to extensive
discussion and cause unusual reactions, on the one hand "because that
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globalization, placing economic system beyond a single state, forces us, in fact, to
realize how you really feel in touch with the invisible hand "and on the other hand
"if we have absolutely no confidence in the markets, then the perspective [...] of a
market system beyond any possibility of control by a government, fills us with fear
".
Deregulation of national financial markets refers to the removal of restrictions in
terms of international financial transactions. Increasing the volume of financial
flows of capital is based on the openness of financial markets, the economies
involved in global financial activity. Indicators against which to measure the
openness of financial markets are: the share of foreign capital in the national
economy, the involvement of foreign financial institutions in domestic financial
markets, the share of domestic capital into foreign markets, the contribution of the
national economy in various global financial flows.
Although recent researches have shown, most theoretical level, that innovation and
financial liberalization and free movement of capital are sources of economic
growth, guilty of the current economic crisis is the emergence and globalization, a
phenomenon apparently positive.
Analyzing the relationship between globalization, economic freedom and a
number of variables such as GDP per capita, economic growth, life expectancy,
literacy, a group of economists including Milton Friedman concluded that there a
correlation between economic freedom and a higher Gross Domestic Product per
capita, life expectancy higher, a higher degree of literacy, etc.
About the importance and benefits of economic freedom as a prerequisite for
development, and both the classical economists and neoclassical economists were
interested in it. According to their theories, not all countries have a high degree of
economic freedom and growth record to match. In contrast to some theories,
experience has shown that globalization is not without problems.
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We can not say the same thing when we talk about the Great Depression of 1929-
1933 and the actual crisis, when economic policies failed to prevent these two
major economic shocks. From the lessons of the Great Depression that took place
80 years ago and the experience of our days, we can say that the phenomenon of
crisis is the event of implosion-explosion of highest intensity with maximum
spatial coverage and temporal concentration. Therefore, experts in the field studied
and go on this phenomenon in depth for giving us lessons to be learned for future
generations. Fortunately, a crisis of these proportions is rare, and therefore past
lessons become obsolete, the information gets old, and we interpret the
phenomenon in terms of other paradigms that will make sure future generations if
it will meet another great crisis.
One thing that makes us look optimistic is that, in general, come and go. True, they
disappear after leaving behind unbalanced economy, serious and major
disturbances. Once the crisis is over, the old economic cycle leaves the scene and
another economic cycle begins.
According to literature, the economic cycle is theoretically linked, on the one hand,
by the variation of all components of aggregate demand (public consumption,
private consumers, investors) or its on the other hand, by the change in aggregate
supply (changes in production costs ).
A more comprehensive approach to the problem, requires knowledge of all aspects
of the economic cycle and market economy, regardless of the factors that have
influenced and encouraged economic cycles, their approach involves different
views.
The first economist in charge of the business cycle theory was David Ricardo who
develop a monetary business cycle theory. David Ricardo succeeds to explain price
changes in behavior based on changes in the money supply growing banks in boom
periods and decrease during periods of recession.
Ricardian theory considers that the period of economic boom, inflationary boom,
was based on government intervention in money market, the recession being the
process of market economy adjusts eliminating excesses and restoring economic
order. Thus, Ricardian theory analyzes the recurrence of the economic cycle, but
does not explain errors when economic recession is installed after the boom period.
Over several years, the Ricardian theory will underpin of Austrian business cycle
theory that has developed its own overinvestment monetary theory.
Further analysis of the economic cycle, through the phenomenon of recurrence,
was due to French economist and statistician Juglar Clement, who has studied
interest rate fluctuations and price and on which he discovered in 1860, an
economic cycle with alternating periods prosperity and decline over a period of 8-
11 years.
A few years later, in 1878, William Stanley Jevons, in "Commercial Crises and
Sun Spots" examines the phenomenon of cyclicity, as Clement Juglar, trying to
explain the periodicity of economic activity. Jevons considers that such crises are
random events and based on statistical studies, the author believes that there is a
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link between them and some extrinsic random variables which exist in the
economy (Maddison, 2007).
In the early twentieth century, another English statistician, Joseph Kitchin, based
on researches in interest rates and other variables (analysis was performed on the
economies of the United States and England) discovers a short economic cycle,
approximately 40 months.
In "The Major Economic Cycles" published in 1925, the Russian economist
Nikolai Kondratieff shows an economic cycle much longer, about 50-60 years.
Based on statistical analysis about long-term price fluctuations (analysis was
performed on the same economies of the United States and England) Kondratieff
observed periods of accelerated growth of industries in the economy, alternated
with slower growth. In this cycle, Kondratieff identified the expansion phase, the
phase of stagnation and recession phase. Without finding a universally accepted
explanation, he believes that these long cycles are based on technological progress,
as confirmed later by Schumpeter, who considers "bunch of related innovations"
that generates each long or secular cycle.
In his main work, "Capital", Marx noted a link between business cycle phases and
timing of replacement of fixed capital. He believes that higher capital accumulation
than fixed capital underlying the phenomenon of periodicity of crises. Fixed capital
(representing only part of the capital it holds a capitalist) once invested, he is stuck
in that activity and the rate of profit becomes ineffective. Given this aspect of fixed
capital immobility, Marx believes that an economic cycle lasts between 5 and 7
years (Berca, 2010).
After the Great Depression, economists have focused much more on
macroeconomic phenomena that cause the economic cycle, seeking to explain
phenomena that generate it and also discovery based on quantitative methods of
prediction models.
Thus, in Chapter 22 entitled "Notes on trade cycle" of his "General Theory of
Employment, Interest and Money", John Maynard Keynes believes that the theory
of employment "would be able" to explain the phenomenon of business cycle
(Keynes, 2009).
Keynes, not having confidence in an economic system that can adjust itself, sees
state intervention as the only safe effective solution.
In his opinion, the saving decision depends on individual income, while the
investment decision depends on the expectations of investors. If expectations are
set by investors, there will be a large investment, or in case of negative
expectations, the investment will be small, which can cause a contraction of the
demand aggregates and eventually a depression.
"The Trade Cycle is best regarded, says Keynes, as being occasioned by a cyclical
change in the marginal efficiency of capital, though complicated and often
aggravated by associated changes in the other significant short-period variables of
the economic system."
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Austrian School sees economic cycle through its representatives, notably Ludwig
von Mises, as a consequence of the massive growth in bank loans, inadequate
monetary policy leading to loosening credit conditions and ultimately to the
accumulation of toxic assets. In turn, loan growth leads to higher prices and lower
interest rates below the optimum level, and the crisis occurs when producers can
not sell their production because of high prices.
The same, Friedrich Hayek considers the phenomenon of overinvestment as
determinant of onset of a new economic cycle, while Joseph Schumpeter,
proponent of the overacummulation theory of capital, believes that occurrence and
triggering of the economic cycle is based on the existence of a high yield
investments, performed in a short period and low demand for new products.
One of the important and bold goals of economics by its specialists is, as far as
possible, eliminate the business cycle, but as Arthur M. Okun says in "The Political
Economy of Prosperity" "forces are producing recession lurks, waiting for the right
moment. " (Samuelson, Nordhaus, 2004).
Regardless of the nature of the economic cycle, it always reaches a peak at the
crisis. With reference to the events of 1929-1933, today we are witnessing a secular
Kondratieff cycle ended.
In the new global realities, the interest of researchers is fully justified, theories
developed being very different approach by going to the market in terms of chaos
theory, the solutions being either total freedom of the market or control capital
flows.
Financial market volatility increased in the same time with the increasing
globalization generating recurrent financial crises. Analysis of the last two decades
crises considered by analysts a result of globalization, highlights also serious
problems in financial management. With an efficient management, it is obvious
that economic and financial crisis` gravity would not be the one known today and it
would not be propagated to other countries, also exposed to international capital
markets.
The experience has shown that liberalization and globalization of capital markets
do not generate always the expected economic growth. Free capital inflows cause
financial imbalances and because of distrust, sudden withdrawals of capital give
rise to financial crises at home and in other countries. Also, we note that these
financial crises tend to be more frequent.
With the current economic crisis, the international financial system has shown once
again the weakness and inability to have effective mechanisms to prevent financial
crises that can turn violent quickly and systemic crisis.
Globalization and economic crisis would be to pull the alarm and at the same time,
require more attention from the international system and national decision-makers
on the causes and effects of economic crisis in each country that can enhance the
phenomenon of contagion. It is obvious that the crisis is a consequence of
inadequate bank supervision, of the unsustainable economic growth, of an
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Source: UNCTAD
Free trade agreements have been beneficial role to help increase exports by
increasing openness of markets for export
Market liberalization, free trade agreements regulated, is a revival factor of foreign
trade, especially with developed countries.
Fundamental concern of developing countries and not only, is still finding the most
effective means to channel the benefits of liberalization of trade and industry to
create wealth and meet people's needs.
The progress in recent years based on the competitiveness of the countries of the
world which is due mainly financial and commercial links. How globalization is in
full process of development, international trade, the premise of sustainable
development of all parts of the world economy, is the main vector of its
manifestation.
Increasing the level and dynamics of trade flows, capital flows, information flows
as well the degree of labor mobility is influenced by process of globalization.
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In the late 1970s, the expansion of liberalization of financial flows shows that
national financial markets are increasingly more anchored in the global financial
system. Parallel with these developments, the financial system changed its
structure, becoming more complex, so that very few economies can work in
isolation from global financial market.
As we noted, compared to the gold standard or Bretton Woods, nowadays financial
globalization is characterized by complexity, speed financial transactions and
financial system expansion due to the geographic extent of the global financial
markets.
Appearance of Eurodollar market ( dollar accounts in European banks) and
American banks overseas expansion favored the occurrence of international
financial markets. Thus, in the late 1980s speed transactions and financial flows
was so great that economic and financial system was truly global. Integration of
national financial markets reduces the autonomy of macroeconomic policy. If a
country increases interest rates to lower domestic inflation, bank deposits will
attract foreign capital, which increases the money supply and thereby increase
inflation which actually must have been diminished (Gilpin, 2004).
Financial globalization, most often, tends to cancel the effectiveness of the
instruments and levers of monetary policy in the country. Deregulation, financial
innovation, internationalization of credit make central banks and authorities in
those countries to be very difficult to control the domestic money supply. And the
limited capacity of authorities to control the domestic money supply has negative
effects on output and inflation.
By the 1970s the movement of capital was somewhat limited and most developing
countries opted for exchange controls. Since the 1990s, due to technological
development and relaxation of exchange control, capital movements increased,
prompting the increased vulnerability of these countries and especially to financial
speculation.
International authorities have been a catalyst in expanding financial markets, some
national authorities encouraging this, others, rather opposing to it.
Analyzing the texture of the new financial system, we find that financial
globalization may bring negative effects on national macroeconomic policies. As
trade liberalization, liberalization of capital flows is a goal of promoting
developing countries especially the developed countries.
Neither this aspect of globalization is not without criticism and reticently, those
who are skeptical suggesting in the last 40 years, liberalization of financial flows
was associated with a decrease in economic efficiency.
In his The Capital Myth, Jagdish Bhagwati believes that the risks to global
financial integration outweigh the potential benefits. These benefits of free
movement of capital were often stated without being proven also and the only
thing that could bring benefit is the direct investment capital (Bhagwati, 1998).
Other economists are, also, less skeptical who helped by empirical arguments
show the benefits of liberalization of financial flows and their positive impact on
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economic growth. Peter Rousseau and Richard Sylla, thus, believes that capital
mobility led to the growth and as a country's financial system is more complex
with the country is more rooted in international trade, finance and trade playing an
important role in achieving convergence rates interest (Bari, 2010).
Skepticism and reserved attitude of specialists to globalization of financial markets
is natural and fully understood especially when we refer to financial crises in Latin
America, Asia, Russia, Argentina. Damage to these crisis the entire world economy
has been strong, because, really increases of financial interdependence between
states. Amid external vulnerabilities it has grown the crisis contagion transmitting
through different channels.
With the financial turmoil of the late 1990s, scientists have shown a growing
concern in the international financial system and regulate the international
movement of capital. Many of them stated that international financial flows should
not be regulated, capital must move freely to be focused where they can achieve
more efficient use of its limited resources worldwide.
Thus the U.S. government since the Reagan Administration was convinced that
freedom of capital movements will benefit to its financial interests, promoting
opening for foreign savings to investments.
Financial turmoil of the 1990s have shown that the price paid for the support of
deregulation was quite large and painful. Started in East Asia and spread rapidly to
the economy, crises of these years have revealed problems in the financial system.
At first it has been thought developed countries were spared the effects of the
Asian crisis, but not long after the crisis they felt its consequences. Stock markets
collapsed and investors lost millions of dollars, farmers, also, have invested large
sums of money to expand their production and they found themselves in situation
not having markets for their products.
As Charles Kindleberger shows in his book Manias, Panics and crashes. A
History of Financial Crises, international financial system has faced often crises,
moments of panic and speculative manias. That`s why, financial system should not
deregulated as a whole, but would be established mechanism to rank international
capital movements.
Weaknesses of the financial system, even if it has evolved, are generally the same
as those of yesteryear. Being guided in their actions by only rapid enrichment as
happened in the case of "Mania" in Holland, 1637, people`s greed, especially
investors` led speculative risky activities in emerging markets of the Asian
continent.
Since the early 1970s economic analysis of the facts showed some volatility in
commodity prices, exchange rates, stock exchanges, and a higher frequency and
also an increased severity of the financial crises.
The mid-1980s Japan, Finland, Norway, Sweden faces a speculative bubble in the
housing market and stock market and early 1990s that thing happens in countries
like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia. In 1993 sales prices in each of these countries
increased by almost 100% (Kindleberger, 2005). In the early 2000s it is occurred a
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infrastructure, pay taxes to the state budget, they are profoundly canceled by
adverse environmental effects of the same investment. There are not the goals and
the consequences of trade liberalization, investment respectively.
A negative consequence of globalization phenomenon is the increased country
risk, the last twenty years, knowing many financial, currency and stock crises.
Latest researches have concluded that the country risk depends on volatility of
each domestic markets to international financial securities market, its coefficient
being lower in the developed countries.
Concluding about the process of globalization, we can say that the developed
countries enjoyed more the advantages of globalization as the economic powers
where there are headquarters of multinational companies.
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