European Power System 2040

Completing
the map
System Needs Analysis, part of
ENTSO-E’s 2025, 2030, 2040 Network
Development Plan 2018

Final version after public consultation

and ACER opinion - October 2019

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

01
Contents

FOREWORD 1 5 NEW NEEDS IN A NEW SET-UP:

DYNAMIC STUDY RESULTS 26
2 INTRODUCTION 5 5.1 Frequency management: system inertia
and local frequency variations 29
3 NEW CAPACITY INCREASES 6 5.2 Transient and voltage-stability-
3.1 Cross-border capacity increases 8 related aspects 32
3.2 Internal reinforcements 11 5.3 How to adapt? Possible solutions for
future system operations 33
4 THE COSTS OF NO GRID IN THE
2040 ELECTRICITY SYSTEM 14 6 DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIOS 34
4.1 Fragmented markets and higher bills 17
4.2 Threatening reliable access to electricity 20 7 METHODOLOGY 40
4.3 Falling short of European climate objectives 22 7.1 IoSN methodology – market approach 42
4.4 Cross-border and internal physical 7.2 IoSN methodology – network approach 43
bottlenecks 24
8 NEXT STEPS 44

9 APPENDICES 46
9.1 Abbreviations 48
9.2 Terminology 49

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

02
Foreword

Power networks facilitating a system of systems

The power system in Europe is changing rapidly.

While it was originally designed on the basis
of centralised predictable generation ensuring
steady power flows, it has progressively evolved to
integrate more decentralised and variable renewable
energy sources. Today almost one-third of the
power generation mix is provided through variable
renewables in Europe, even though the proportion
can vary greatly from country to country.

Renewables, particularly photovoltaics and onshore

wind, have introduced new challenges for power
system operators that have to co-ordinate distributed,
small-scale generation assets across their networks.

In fact, the architecture of the European power

system is evolving into an architecture whereby
centralised and decentralised coexist. New
actors and new services are needed to optimise
flexibility at local, national, regional and European
levels. Network operators, from transmission
and distribution, have a key role in facilitating the
orchestration of new transactions over the whole
value chain. On this specific topic of cross-border trade, closer
interaction between network operators, policymakers
It is clear that we are evolving towards a system of and regulators at the regional level is highly desirable
systems. The ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’ increases so as to debate important questions and choices
interfaces, interactions and transactions at every impacting citizens.
stage of the system and between systems. Power
networks are central in this evolution, and will remain ENTSO-E is notably working towards developing
a fundamental pillar of this transformation where a vision for how both market and operation should
sectors will need to further couple across electricity, be updated, hoping to contribute further to finding
gas, heating, transport and digital. collective solutions to the issues highlighted in this
report.
The power networks that have been built
progressively in Europe since the early days of As this publication shows, together with its members,
electricity have to adapt to this paradigm shift. New ENTSO-E is committed to developing the power
hardware and software are needed to enable new system that will support Europe’s competitiveness
interactions and to provide the capacity to flow and sustainability and will guarantee a safe supply of
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

competitive renewables from north to south Europe, power to Europeans for the decades to come.
ultimately bridging offshore wind from the Nordic
countries with photovoltaics from southern countries.

This report provides a quantified overview of the

needs of the power system of tomorrow, looking
through to the 2040 time horizon. It illustrates why
constructing more physical lines is so crucial and
what the cost of doing nothing would be. It also Laurent Schmitt
insists on innovation and the development of new ENTSO-E Secretary General
tools and principles in network optimisation to
guarantee a high level of security of supply, integrate
more renewables, and support more and more cross-
border electricity exchanges.
1
Section 1

Executive
summary
What should the electricity grid look like in 2040 six Regional Investment Plans, which all provide
to create maximum value for Europeans, ensure in-depth analysis of the studies presented in this
continuous access to electricity throughout report, as well as specific regional elements, are
Europe and deliver on the climatic agenda? part of the TYNDP 2018 package. The scenarios
Furthermore, what would be the cost of not are thus ambitious and offer a wide spectrum of
having the right grid by 2040? potential energy futures for Europe. Thanks to
this strong basis, the present report assesses
ENTSO-E’s long-term pan-European grid planning where transmission capacity should increase,
(the biennial 10-year network development plan or and by how much, by taking into account policy –
TYNDP) 2016 presented a plan for the European such as cheaper electricity for consumers – and
electricity grid for 2030. The E-HIGHWAY 2050 environmental objectives. It will shed some light on
European research project explores the need for grids increasing challenges in terms of real-time system
in a near-to-full decarbonised economic context. management in the 2040 electricity landscape.

The present report is looking at 2040. Very high This report aims to offer the most reliable
levels – up to 75% of the total demand – of renewable assessment of:
energy sources (RES) will be reached, and European
countries will need to rely more than ever on each —— pan-European network needs
other through cross-border exchanges. This means —— the impact and needs in regions
more capacity at borders, which goes hand in hand —— where grid projects should be considered
with reinforcing national grids. This report and the six
Regional Investment Plans it accompanies present but also
how to complement the power-system maps by 2040 —— potential policy requirements and/or adjustments
in the most efficient way. —— future technical challenges to be addressed.

The right set of increases in the transmission Preparing for the 2040 future system
capacity between and within European countries A number of additional capacity increases, and thus
could indeed reduce market prices in most of the new projects, will be necessary in the future beyond
countries, strengthen security of supply (SoS) and the TYNDP 2016 project portfolios.
allow for the integration of a high share of RES in
the system. Such increases could enable countries If these additional interconnector reinforcements
momentarily producing more energy than they need, were developed they would:
as in the case of high wind or solar, to export their
production. Whereas, at other times, they could —— reduce market prices on average over a year
import cheap wind or solar energy. Overall, this —— decrease curtailed energy in countries with
means optimising the use of renewable energy and significant levels of renewable energy installed, and
of generation resources in Europe so that security —— increase the security of supply in scenarios
of supply can be maintained at the best cost for all with a low number of conventional power plants
Europeans. (for example, nuclear and coal) in operation
compared to the situation today.
Completing the map
In the context of the mid- to long-term pan- But interconnection is not enough. For the benefits
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

European planning, but also research and of the interconnector reinforcements to materialise
development activities, ENTSO-E has developed and the integration of renewable energy sources at
three 2040 scenarios describing how Europe’s large to be sustained, internal grid reinforcements will
future energy could look. The scenarios consider also be needed to operate the system in a safe and
a very centralised, digitalised system as well as efficient way.
one driven by strong international cooperation
or rather by a continuation of the present policies. The new conditions by 2040 will also make it more
In all scenarios, European climate targets are met and more difficult for system operators to manage the
or exceeded. system in real time, as large power flows will need to
travel across Europe, and large controllable power
The present analyses of pan-European electricity plants are being replaced by small and distributed
system needs is based on those scenarios which sources. This will require innovation in grids – notably
have been widely consulted on and co-created ICT/ digital solutions – but also new market design,
with ENTSOG so as to maximise the synergies policy and regulatory coordination to increase
between the two networks. This document and the flexibility in the system.
2
 Figure 1: E
 urope needs a strong, meshed grid. Results from the analysis Increases beyond
2030 in only
conducted on the 2018 ENTSOs scenarios1 one scenario
Increases beyond
2030 in at least
two scenarios
Increases already
NOn identified in
TYNDP 2016

IS SE1

FI

SE2
1

Increases already identifed in TYNDP 2016 refer to the NOm
reference capacities of TYNDP 2016 for 2030 which for some
borders had been adjusted for the TYNDP 2018. Projects
commissioned in 2020 are not included in capacity increases.

NOs

EE RU
SE3

HK

SE4
LV
NI DKw
DKe RU
BY
IE

GB
NL PL

UA
BE DE

CZ
LU
SK
MD

AT
HU
FR
CH RO
SI
HR
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

ITn
BA RS
BG
ITcn ME
MK
FRc ITcs AL

PT ES TR
ITs GR
ITsar

ITsic

MT
3

MA DZ TN
1.1

Summary of
conclusions
New investment needed after 2030 markets leading to higher bills for consumers.
—— There will be a need for increased transmission By 2040, the ‘no grid’ extra bill (€43 billion a
capacity in some places to make the system year in the average case) would be largely
work in 2040. The interconnection projects above the expected cost of the new grid (€150
currenty under development and identified in billion in total in the TYNDP 2016 plus internal
TYNDP 2016 will need to be completed by new reinforcements, 25% discount rate).
entries responding to these needs in future —— A lack of investments will affect the stability of
editions of the TYNDP. the European grid and could, in some regions,
—— New interconnection needs have been identified threaten the continued access to electricity
across and between all regions, largely due to the which also has a cost for society.
increasing levels and use of renewable resources —— All scenarios considered show that without
to supply all areas of the European grid. grid extension, Europe will not meet its
—— To deliver the new necessary levels of climate targets.
interconnections, a high level of internal
reinforcements of the grid will also be Policy and technical challenges foreseen when
necessary in most European countries. integrating renewables
—— Operating in real time, by 2040 the grid will
The high cost of no grid be made more difficult by the large flows of
—— Overall benefits for Europeans of a fit- electricity travelling across Europe, and the
forpurpose network (both financially, replacement of large generators by non-
and to ensure continued access to electricity controllable, distributed RES.
and enable climate objectives) far outweigh —— System operators will need new solutions to
the necessary efforts which will need to ensure frequency and voltage stability, leading
be mobilised in the coming decades for to new responsibilities for market participants.
its realisation. —— The challenges not only require technological
—— A lack of new investments by 2040 would solutions, but also a higher level of regulatory
hinder the development of the integrated energy and policy coordination, as well as innovation
market and lead to a lack of competitiveness. in market design to increase flexibility in
In turn, this would increase prices in electricity the system.

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

4
Section 2

Introduction
ENTSO-E has investigated pan-European system The current report focuses on three main drivers for
needs based on future scenarios as part of its increasing transmission capacity: social economic
European studies. welfare, security of supply, and European climate
goals. Then, according to the three scenarios,
As the future could develop in many different ways, ENTSO-E analysed where an increase in capacity
ENTSO-E decided to investigate three different was needed. The same approach was used in the
2040 scenarios, namely Global Climate Action, Regional Investment Plans – jointly released – so as to
Sustainable Transition and Distributed Generation. ensure consistency of the results at regional and pan-
These scenarios were co-created with ENTSOG European level.
(European Network of Transmission System
Operators for Gas) and other stakeholders to ensure TYNDP lists projects that will support meeting the
the most accurate and exhaustive visions for the European system needs by 2040 and, as usual, will
future. The scenarios are described in more detail in provide a cost-benefit analysis of each project based
sections 6 and in the separate Scenario Report 2. on the needs identified here.

Because of their largely consulted and co-created

nature, ENTSO-E scenarios for 2040 offer a solid
basis to identify future interconnection and system
needs.

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

2
https://www.entsoe.eu/Documents/TYNDP%20documents/14475_ENTSO_ScenarioReport_Main.pdf
5
Section 3

New capacity
increases

Beyond the portfolio of projects

in the previous TYNDP, greater
integration of markets through
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

new interconnectors is needed

and could provide benefits
financially, environmentally and
in terms of security of supply.
6
7 European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
3.1

Cross-border capacity
increases
Methodology: Identifying capacity increases economic analysis, ENTSO-E tested two additional
In order to go beyond the learning of the TYNDP criteria in order to identify borders where additional
published in 2016 (focusing on 2030 scenarios), capacity was needed for non-economic reasons
ENTSO-E analysed which new capacity increases (integration of RES and security of supply).
would be necessary by 2040.
The methodology is presented in section 7
To do so, ENTSO-E determined, for three of this document.
distinct 2040 scenarios, which European borders
presented the highest economic gains when The result of this analysis is a set of proposed
equipped with an additional interconnector capacity increases per European border, and an
(using standard development costs for each indication of the need they respond to (economic,
border). This operation was repeated until no new security of supply or RES).
profitable route could be identified. Following the

All European regions are concerned by the The following three maps show the specific reason
transformation of the energy landscape. The analysis for which an increase has been identified in every
therefore showed a need for new projects in each scenario.
European region. Many of the necessary capacity
increases are valid in more than one scenario, and Subsequent to the outcomes of this report, it is
justified by more than one driver (socio-economic envisaged that both transmission system operators
welfare – SEW, RES and SoS). (TSOs) and other project promoters will consider and
appraise whether a project is viable (in coordination
Each of the capacity needs identified will require with the relevant TSOs to which they are connecting),
further investigation. It is also certain that the considering in more detail where exactly these
proposed set of capacity increases does not projects could be built using which technology
represent the only solution, as other combinations (AC or DC, voltage level, etc.). Any resulting
of capacity increases could also address the same proposed projects submitted will be shown against
needs. the associated needs in the TYNDP 2018 (or later
TYNDPs) to perform the cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
Furthermore, the value for society of a capacity and ensure that the project is robust against different
increase can only be assessed considering realistic scenarios.
their interaction with each other. A change in the
sequence of capacity increases could therefore
have led to another valid end result. In addition,
the phenomenon studied in this report could, and
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

will also have to, be addressed through new market

designs and the development of storage and
smart grids (although these elements are already
ambitiously represented within the scenarios, and
would therefore necessitate an exceptional and
unforeseen development to efficiently address the
needs described in this report).
8
Figure 2: Summary of identified border increases in 20403

Increases beyond
2030 in only
one scenario
NOn
Increases beyond
IS SE1 2030 in at least
two scenarios
FI Increases already
SE2 identified in
NOm
TYNDP 20163

NOs

EE RU
SE3

HK

SE4
LV
NI DKw
DKe RU
BY
IE

GB
NL PL

UA
BE DE

CZ
LU
SK
MD

AT
HU
FR
CH RO
SI
HR
ITn
BA RS
BG
ITcn ME
MK
FRc ITcs AL

PT ES TR
ITs GR
ITsar

ITsic
CY

MT
MA DZ TN

Figure 3: Justification of increases from ST 2040 on top of confirmed increases from previous TYNDP

Justification
SEW
NOn RES
SE1
SoS
IS
RES and SoS
FI SEW and RES
NOm
SE2
Increases identified
in TYNDP 2016
Level of increase
NOs

SE3
EE RU ≤ 500MW
HK
501 to 1500MW
SE4
> 1500MW
LV
NI DKw
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

DKe RU
BY
IE

GB
NL PL

UA
BE DE

CZ
LU
SK
MD

AT
HU
FR
CH RO
SI
HR
ITn
BA RS
BG
ITcn ME
MK
FRc AL
ITcs

PT ES TR
ITs GR
ITsar

ITsic
CY

MT
MA DZ TN

3
“ Increases already identified in TYNDP 2016” refers to the reference capacities of TYNDP 2016 for 2030 which had been adjusted for TYNDP 2018 for
some borders. Projects commissioned in 2020 are not included as capacity increases.
9
Figure 4: Justification of increases from DG 2040 on top of confirmed increases from previous TYNDP3

Justification
SEW
NOn RES
SE1
SoS
IS
RES and SoS
FI SEW and RES
NOm
SE2
Increases identified
in TYNDP 2016
Level of increase
NOs

SE3
EE RU ≤ 500MW
HK
501 to 1500MW
SE4
> 1500MW
LV
NI DKw
DKe RU
BY
IE

GB
NL PL

UA
BE DE

CZ
LU
SK
MD

AT
HU
FR
CH RO
SI
HR
ITn
BA RS
BG
ITcn ME
MK
FRc AL
ITcs

PT ES TR
ITs GR
ITsar

ITsic
CY

MT
MA DZ TN

Figure 5: Justification of increases from GCA 2040 on top of confirmed increases from previous TYNDP

Justification
SEW
NOn RES
SE1
SoS
IS
RES and SoS
FI SEW and RES
NOm
SE2
Increases identified
in TYNDP 2016
Level of increase
NOs

SE3
EE RU ≤ 500MW
HK
501 to 1500MW
SE4
> 1500MW
LV
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

NI DKw
DKe RU
BY
IE

GB
NL PL

UA
BE DE

CZ
LU
SK
MD

AT
HU
FR
CH RO
SI
HR
ITn
BA RS
BG
ITcn ME
MK
FRc AL
ITcs

PT ES TR
ITs GR
ITsar

ITsic
CY

MT
MA DZ TN
10
3.2

Internal reinforcements
Reaching the level of cross-border exchanges cross-border flows highlighted resulting from the
and distributed production envisaged in the new capacity increases identified in this report. In
different scenarios will create new stress on the such a situation, a country can appear in green in
European national grid, and will stimulate new Figure 7 while it appeared in red in Figure 6. While
needs for internal reinforcements. many of the needs shown in Figures 6 and 7 will
be addressed by projects within the TYNDP 2018,
Figure 6 shows these internal reinforcement needs supplementary projects may be required which will
for all three scenarios without any additional cross- be channelled into future TYNDPs.
border capacities.

New needs for cross-border capacity increases were

100%
identified for each scenario. These increases would
lead to additional pressure on the internal network
grids, shown in Figure 7. Both maps (Figures 6 and
Both maps together
7 for each scenario) together show the total needs to
show the total needs
enable every 2040 scenario, including the scenario
to enable every 2040
grid identified4.
scenario.
For example, a country shown in red in Figure 6,
will need to realise internal reinforcements of the
grid to enable the scenarios without additional cross-
border capacities. Once this has been done, these
reinforcements may actually also facilitate the new

Figure 6: Internal reinforcements needed to enable the scenarios without additional cross-border capacities

Internal reinforcement Internal reinforcement Internal reinforcement

needs in scenario needs in scenario needs in scenario
Sustainable Transition 2040 Distributed Generation 2040 Global Climate Action 2040

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

No data available Important number of reinforcements needed

Some reinforcements needed Huge number of reinforcements or heavy reinforcements needed

As a result of the Identification of System additional pressure on the internal network grids.
Needs (IoSN) studies, needs for cross-border Both figures (Figures 6 and 7) together show the total
capacity increases were identified for each scenario needs to enable every 2040 scenario, including the
(see previous section). These increases lead to identified scenario grid4.
11

4
The identified cross-border capacities of the scenario grids can be found in the appendix.
Figure 7: Internal reinforcements needed to accommodate the additional cross-border capacity
needs in the scenarios

Additional internal reinforcement Additional internal reinforcement Additional internal reinforcement

needs following cross-border needs following cross-border needs following cross-border
capacity increases identified capacity increases identified capacity increases identified
in scenario Sustainable in scenario Distributed in scenario Global Climate
Transition 2040 Generation 2040 Action 2040

No data available Important number of reinforcements needed

Some reinforcements needed Huge number of reinforcements or heavy reinforcements needed

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

12
13 European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
Section 4

The costs of no
grid in the 2040
electricity system

It will be necessary to deliver additional

investments in the transmission
infrastructure beyond the already
significant project portfolio of TYNDP
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

2016, as shown in the previous

section. This massive undertaking
will require strong and coordinated
political, technical and financial efforts
throughout Europe for decades to come.

The costs of developing the grid are,

however, far smaller than the economic,
security of supply and environmental
costs incurred if the capacity of the
transmission grid was not increased.
14
“Energy should flow freely across
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

the EU – without any technical or

regulatory barriers. Only then can
energy providers freely compete
and provide the best energy prices,
and can Europe fully achieve its
renewable energy potential.”
Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič
15
Methodology: the no-grid 2040 scenario Testing these scenarios and comparing the results
What would be the consequences of no (additional) to simulations of original scenarios allows the
grid for Europeans by 2040? To answer this reader to grasp concretely the value of the overall
question, we created no-grid versions of investment portfolio, rather than incremental
each of the 2040 ENTSOs scenarios. benefits of additional capacity increases.

These scenarios keep the generation portfolio and In this chapter, average results for the three original
the demand levels of original scenarios, but use and no-grid scenarios are presented in order
a 2020 version of the grid (projects which will be to increase readability. Simulations have been
operational by 2020 are in the final stages of their performed using three different sets of climatic
delivery and therefore rather certain to happen). conditions. These variations are also incorporated
into the average results presented in this section.
Full results are available in the Technical Appendix.

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

16
4.1

Fragmented markets
and higher bills
No new grid beyond 2020 would directly hit
the European objective of a well-integrated
European energy market. €+43 billion/year
The severe limitation that this would place on cross-
border exchanges, coupled with a heterogeneous Not reinforcing the
distribution of renewables across Europe, would transmission grid at
lead to important splits between regional market borders and within
prices, with price differences at the borders going countries would increase
up by 600% in the worst cases. This means that the the total European market
cohesion of the European single market would be value by €43 billion
harmed by vastly different electricity costs between per year by 2040 in an
neighbouring countries. average case. This is more than three times
the €12 billion per year Europeans need to
The following chart shows ranges and the invest to reinforce the grid, according to the
average hourly marginal cost differences between TYNDP 2016.
neighbouring countries for ENTSO-E’s six regional
groups. In general, marginal cost differences at
borders are highest in the Global Climate Action
scenario (GCA) and lowest in the Sustainable
Transition scenario (ST) (see full figures in the
Technical Appendix). This is due to the fact that the
GCA and ST scenarios are based on the highest and
lowest growth of renewable resources.

Figure 8: Range and average annual marginal cost differences

Range and average of all scenarios and climate years

60

50

40
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
€/MWh

30

20

10

0
Baltic Sea North Sea Continental Continental Continental Continental
Region Region South West Central South South East Central East
Region Region Region Region

No-grid scenario 2040 scenarios with scenario grid

17
Bringing the electricity markets differences to Figure 10 shows these marginal price spreads in
zero between neighbouring countries is not an each region (the price at which electricity is traded on
objective in itself, as local conditions and grid the market).
development costs must be taken into account.
However, in a less integrated market system This reduction is more significant in the Central South
the power is less efficient, meaning that power East region (around 26 €/MWh reduction) due to the
cannot flow from lower-cost areas to more increase in power flows from the eastern part of the
expensive ones. Thus, fragmented markets lead region, with a higher RES production portfolio in 2040,
to a rise in marginal prices, with a direct impact to the western part where the generation portfolio is
on consumers’ electricity bills. dominated mainly by fossil fuel. Furthermore, after
2020, Cyprus will be part of the interconnected system
As a consequence of the market splits, all regions which will contribute to the reduction of marginal cost
see a rise in their regional marginal price average in differences in the whole region.
the no-grid case, from +1.4 to +17.4 €/ MWh (+3% to
+29% depending on regions) (Figure 9). Considering
the overall amount of electricity generated by 2040,
this corresponds to billions of euros a year which will
eventually be paid by European consumers.

Figure 9: Range and average annual marginal cost per regional group

European - yearly average marginal cost

Range and average of all scenarios and climate years

120

100

80
€/MWh

60

40

20

0
Baltic Sea North Sea Continental Continental Continental Continental
Region Region South West Central South South East Central East
Region Region Region Region
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

No-grid scenario 2040 scenarios with scenario grid

18
The enhanced grid leads to a much greater level of The North Sea region experiences the greatest
power transfer between countries (Figure 10) as this increment in cross-border exchanges as well as
network is used to trade more efficient power. This having the greatest difference in net balances between
is a good indicator that the additional grid is actually scenarios. In this region, the generation production
supportive of trade throughout Europe and a more mix in Norway and Great Britain is very dependent on
efficient use of the generation portfolio. the set of climatic conditions, which leads to a high
variation in net balances between scenarios. All the
regions are net exporters except Central South East
and Continental Central East5.

Figure 10: Net annual region balance in 2040, depending on assumed grid status

European – net annual balance per region

Range and average of all scenarios and climate years

300

250

200

150

100
TWh

50

-50

-100

-150

-200
Baltic Sea North Sea Continental Continental Continental Continental
Region Region South West Central South South East Central East
Region Region Region Region

No-grid scenario 2040 scenarios with scenario grid

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

19

5
Many countries are part of several regions and have therefore been included several times in the balance figures.
4.2

Threatening reliable
access to electricity
No grid beyond 2020 would also have a tangible as foreseen, failure to deliver on transmission
impact on Europe’s economy and Europeans’ investments would lead to unacceptable
quality of life by putting at risk the reliability and never before seen levels of business
of access to electricity. If renewable energy inoperability or even blackouts.
sources and new electricity uses keep growing

Methodology: unserved energy This security of supply indicator is shown per

Unserved energy means the amount of region in the figures below. The additional
endcustomer demand that cannot be supplied cross-border exchange capacities identified
within a region due to a deficiency in generation or lead to a much higher level of security of supply
interconnector capacity. In other words, this means demonstrated by nearly no unserved energy in
the forced disconnection of demand customers, 2040, that is nearly-zero-load shedding.
commonly referred to as ‘load shedding’.

The results of the no-grid scenarios confirm that In the no-grid scenario, unserved energy is rising
without the ability to rely on cross-border exchanges, across all regions. These results demonstrate the
many European countries will simply lack generation principle that interconnectors contribute to ensuring
capacity. adequacy through the sharing of resources in Europe
and that they are the basis of a secure and reliable
power system in the mid/long-term scenarios.

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

20
 Figure 11: Unserved energy in 2040, depending on assumed grid status (absolute values in GWh)

European – unserved energy

Range and average of all scenarios and climate years

600

500

400
GWh

300

200

100

0
Baltic Sea North Sea Continental Continental Continental Continental
Region Region South West Central South South East Central East
Region Region Region Region

No-grid scenario 2040 scenarios with scenario grid

To explain the absolute values shown in Figure 11,

the figure below shows the amount of unserved
energy as a percentage of annual demand.

Figure 12: Unserved energy in 2040, depending on assumed grid status (in percentage of demand)

European – unserved energy

Range and average of all scenarios and climate years

45

40
1/100,000 of annual demand

35

30
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

25

20

15

10

0
Baltic Sea North Sea Continental Continental Continental Continental
Region Region South West Central South South East Central East
Region Region Region Region

No-grid scenario 2040 scenarios with scenario grid

21
4.3

Falling short of European

climate objectives
No grid is incompatible with the achievements of
European emission targets.

In the no-grid scenarios, significant amounts of

>156TWh per year
renewable energy would go to waste as they could of renewable energy wasted on average
not be exported because of the lack of cross-border because of no grid, which is equal to the
capacity. In addition, the limitations in cross- total annual consumption of Benelux in
border exchanges would be compensated for by 2040. In some situations, up to four times
local production from peaking units, representing this amount would go to waste.
by more CO2 emissions. Even with the delivery of
the infrastructure needed by 2040, the amount of
curtailed energy remains very significant despite
the increase in interconnection capacities: this
confirms that further reduction of curtailed energy will
necessitate further optimisation of the geographical
spread of RES and/or complementary solutions
(storage, etc.) to network development.

It can be argued that in the no-grid case, because

RES promoters will know that they will not be able to
sell their production in foreign markets and therefore Beside the CO2 reductions achieved by the scenarios’
will be unable to benefit from this revenue, they will not transition to a more renewable production system
build the RES units in the first place. This would reduce and the increased utilisation of flexible demand, the
the amount of lost or ‘dumped’ energy from RES, but cross-border capacity increases identified reduce
overall would push up the level of CO2 emissions. the CO2 emissions even more. Figure 14 shows
CO2 emissions in 2040, depending on assumed grid
The light mauve bars show the range of curtailed status. On average, the grid built between 2020 and
energy in the three scenarios per region using 2040 allows for a further 10% decrease in power
the capacities as they will be in 2020. The dark sector CO2 emissions as compared to the 1990
mauve bars then show the same regions but levels.
provide the range of the curtailed energy using the
capacities in 2040.

It is important to keep in mind that all scenarios

were developed under the assumption that the CO2
emissions will be reduced as defined in the European
climate goals. That means that on a European level,
installed coal capacity and production have been
reduced in the 2030 scenarios and even more so in
2040 compared to 2020 and 2025. Any old coal unit
that is retired after 2030 will not be rebuilt, i.e. they
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

are not included in the 2040 scenarios if they reach

the end of their lifetime.
22
Figure 13: Curtailed energy in 2040, depending on assumed grid status
European – curtailed energy
Range and average of all scenarios and climate years

250

200

150
TWh

100

50

0
Baltic Sea North Sea Continental Continental Continental Continental
Region Region South West Central South South East Central East
Region Region Region Region

No-grid scenario 2040 scenarios with scenario grid

Figure 14: CO2 emissions in 2040, depending on assumed grid status

European – CO2 emissions

Range and average of all scenarios and climate years

250

200

150
Mtonnes

100
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

50

0
Baltic Sea North Sea Continental Continental Continental Continental
Region Region South West Central South South East Central East
Region Region Region Region

No-grid scenario 2040 scenarios with scenario grid

23
4.4

Cross-border and internal

physical bottlenecks
Eventually, a low-emitting, integrated, efficient 2. At the same time, even in the absence of an
energy market comes down to the networks’ increase in cross-border capacity, the internal
ability to handle the physical flows of elect. networks need reinforcements to accommodate
the flows resulting from the new generation
Network studies were conducted to see how far mixes described in the scenarios.
crossborder ties and internal TSO networks are able 3. Finally, after increasing cross-border capacity
to accommodate the energy transition by 2040 in the to release limitations mentioned in 1), additional
scenarios at stake. internal reinforcements on top of those ones
described in 2) may be required.
The result of the no grid beyond 2020 scenarios
analysis grids can be analysed as follows: Figure 15 shows cross-border AC connections
that are overloaded in the 2040 scenarios. Severe
1. Cross-border exchange capacities resulting bottlenecks (N constraints) appear on borders
from TYNDP 2016 would seem to be generally highlighted in red, while less severe bottlenecks
insufficient to enable optimal cross-border (N-1 bottlenecks) appear on borders highlighted
exchanges resulting from an economical operation in amber. Both types of constraints are, however,
of the European generation mix. very likely to be solved by network reinforcements
enabling an increase in cross-border exchange
capacity for the border under consideration.

Figure 15: Future challenges in 2040 scenarios (study based on 2020 grid)

Borders
No overload
or occasional
bottlenecks
Structural
bottlenecks in N-1
Bottlenecks in N

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

24
25 European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
Section 5

New needs in a new set-up:

dynamic study results

Beyond the necessity to efficiently

ensure a balance between production
and demand at any time, the future
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

system must also be operable in

real time by TSOs. The changing
environment radically transforms the
way this will be done, leading to new
technical needs for the system.
26
27 European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
Transmission systems in Europe are increasing in identified in this report. By presenting a vision of the
complexity. Conventional generation is being displaced situation created by the future energy landscape,
by new generation technologies that have different this report represents a first step towards a reliable
performance capabilities; generation is moving from and accurate definition of these needs.
the higher voltage levels to the distribution networks;
and there is a greater level of interconnection between Future studies will be necessary to clearly
different synchronous areas. understand the scale and nature of measures to be
taken by system operators in order to adapt to the
This increases both the interdependency of TSO situation presented in this report.
processes to operate the system in a secure and
efficient manner, and the need to take into account the Some of the needs may be addressed through
challenges associated with the operation of the future the specification of capabilities and services that
system when designing the transmission network. users (generation or demand) are expected to
provide as part of their connection. However,
These needs are highly dependent on the final additional nationally and regionally defined network
portfolio, individual characteristics and technology reinforcement projects can also be expected to
of the projects that address the capacity needs address the specific dynamic stability needs.

Methodology: dynamic stability analysis An explanation of the technical concepts presented

This section looks into the way the system would in these sections, as well as more detailed
physically respond to the ENTSOs’ 2040 conditions. results and further analysis are presented in the
The results it presents are based on an analysis Technical Appendix.
of the hourly demand and generation profiles,
testing operational parameters such as inertia and
shortcircuit current levels, operational requirements
such as flexibility, and availability of ancillary
services such as reactive power support, frequency
response, and contribution to short-circuit current.
It is also based on a collection of more local or
regional issues identified across Europe.

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

28
5.1

Frequency management:
system inertia and local
frequency variations
Frequency variations occur in power systems Consequently, the level of inertia provides a useful
due to mismatches between the active power assessment of the emerging challenges to system
being generated and the power being used operability.
by the demand it is supplying.
The following duration curves present the percentage
Once a mismatch takes place, the energy stored in the of hours in a full year where, for all synchronous areas,
rotating masses of the synchronous generating units, the intrinsic inertia from generators is above a given
by virtue of their inertia, is released instantaneously value. The estimated synchronous area equivalent
balancing of any mismatch (between the raw energy inertia, expressed as H(s), is calculated on the basis
supplied to generating units and the total system of online generators’ capacity. The larger the area,
demand including losses). The immediate inertial the more stored energy in the rotating masses of the
action results in a change in rotor speed and, synchronous generating units there is inherently that
consequently, system frequency. the system can benefit from.

Although this does not solve the power mismatch

problem in a sustainable manner, it is essential for
instantaneously balancing this mismatch until the
balance between generation and demand can be
restored.

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

29
 4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
100% Percentage of hours in a year

Figure 16: Duration curves of estimated synchronous areas equivalent inertia (H(s))
040 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030 ST 2040 GCA 2040 DG 2040

Synchronous area
Synchronous inertia
area (H(s))
inertia – Baltic
(H(s)) – Sardinia Synchronous area inertia
Synchronous (H(s)) (H(s))
area inertia – Cyprus
– CE Synchronous area inerti
6 5 5 6 5

5 4.5 Synchronous area inertia (H(s)) – CE 4.5 Synchronous area inertia (H(s)) – Nordic 4.5
5 4
4 4
45 3.5
5
44.5 3.5 3.5
4.5 3
3 3
34 4 2.5
3
3.5
2.5 3.5 2.5 2
2 2 3 2 1.5
3 2
1 1.5 2.5 1.5 1
2.5
1 1 2 1 0.5
02 1.5 0.5 0
0.5
1.5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 1 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50
0
1 0.5
100% 0% 10% Percentage
20% 30% of hours
40% in
50%a year
60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 10%
0% 20% 20%
30% 30%40% 40% 50% 50% 60% 60% 70% 70%
80% 80%
90% 90%
100% 100% Percentage of hou
0.5 0
Percentage of hours in a year 0% 10% 20%
Percentage
40%
of hours
30% Percentage 50%
in a 60%
of hoursyear
in a year
70% 80% 90% 100%
0
100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentage of hours in a year
040 ST 2030
ST 2030DG 2030 2030EUCOEUCO
DGPercentage 2030 2030ST 2040ST 2040 GCA 2040
GCA 2040 DG 2040
DG 2040 ST 2030
ST 2030DG 2030
DG 2030EUCO EUCO
2030 2030ST 2040
ST 2040GCA 2040
GCA 2040DG 2040
DG 2040 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030
of hours in a year

2040 ST 2030 Synchronous

DG 2030 area
EUCO 2030inertia (H(s)) GCA
ST 2040 – Ireland
2040 DG 2040 ST 2030 Synchronous
DG 2030 EUCOarea
2030 inertia (H(s))
ST 2040 – 2040
GCA GB DG 2040 Synchronous area inertia
7 7 6

6
Synchronous
Synchronous areaarea inertia
inertia (H(s))
(H(s)) – GB– CE 6
Synchronous
Synchronous area
area inertia
inertia (H(s))
(H(s)) – Nordic
– Baltic 5
Synchronous area inertia (H
7 5
5 6 55 6
4
6
4.5 Synchronous area inertia (H(s)) – Sardinia 5
4.5 Synchronous area inertia (H(s)) – CE Synchronous area inertia (H
4 44 5 3
4
55 3.5 5 3.5 5
3 4 3 4 2
4.5 3 4.5 3 4.5
4 2 43 2.5
2 4
4 2.5 3 1
3.5 2 3.5
3
3.5 2
1 2 1 3 0
1.5
3 3 2
2 1.50 1 0
1 2.5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
2.5 1 2.5
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0.5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 Percentage of hour
12 0.5 20 0 1.5
Percentage of hours in a year 1.5 0% 0%10% 10% 30% Percentage
20% 20% 30%
40% 40% of hours
50% 50%
60%in a year
60%70% 70%80% 80%
90% 90%
100% 100% 0 1
1.5
0 0
100%100% 1 0% 0%10% 10% 20% 20% 30% 30% 40% 40% 50% 50% 60% 60% 70% 70%80% 80%90% 90%100% 100% 1 Percentage
Percentage of hours
of hours in a year
in a year 0.50% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60
0%
ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030 ST 2040 GCA 2040 DG 2040 0.5 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030 ST 2040 GCA 2040 DG 2040 0 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030
0.5 Percentage
Percentage of hours
of hours in a year
in a year 0% 10% 20% Percentage
30% 40%of hours
50% in a
0 0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentage of hours in
2040
DG 2040 ST 2030
ST 2030 DG 2030
DG 2030 EUCO 20302030 ST 2040
EUCO ST 2040 GCAGCA
20402040 DG 2040
DG 2040 ST 2030
ST 2030 DG 20302030 EUCO
DGPercentage 2030
EUCO
of 2030 inST
hours a 2040
ST 2040 GCAGCA
year 20402040 DG 2040
DG 2040 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030 ST
Percentage of hours in a year

ST 2030 Synchronous
DG 2030 EUCOarea
2030 inertia (H(s))GCA
ST 2040 – 2040
GB DG 2040 ST 2030 Synchronous
DG 2030 area
EUCO 2030 inertia (H(s))GCA
ST 2040 – Baltic
2040 DG 2040 ST 2030Synchronous
DG 2030 area2030
EUCO inertiaST
7 6 6
Synchronous area inertia (H(s)) – Ireland Synchronous area inertia (H(s)) – GB Synchronous area inertia (H
System inertia trends
6 5 5
7 5 7 4 6
4
6 4 6 3 5
3
5 3 5 2 The graphs illustrate the reduction in all 4
2
4 2 4
1 synchronous areas as we move from the 3
3 1 3
0 situations in 2030 to the 2040 visions with 2 1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2 0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2
a higher integration of RES and
Percentage of hours in a year
more 1 0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
% 100%
1
Percentage of hours in a year
1
distributed generation. 0
0% 10% 20% 30% Percentage
40% of hours
50% 6
0 0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentage of hours in a
DG 2040 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030 ST 2040
Percentage of hours in a year
GCA 2040 DG 2040
With very DG
ST 2030
low inertia,
2030
Percentage thein asystem
EUCO 2030
of hours
ST 2040
year becomes
GCA 2040 DG 2040 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030

more vulnerable to experiencing high-

ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030 ST 2040 GCA 2040 DG 2040 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030 ST 2040 GCA 2040 DG 2040 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO 2030 ST
frequency excursions and even blackouts
as the result of a relatively low mismatch
between generation and demand. The impact
of this inertia reduction is especially significant
in small synchronous areas.
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
30
Given the trend of more non-synchronous sources from nominal, the system may become unrecoverable
without intrinsic inertia, the same level of imbalance and blackouts will occur.
between generation and demand today will create
a faster and greater change in system frequency Whereas small synchronous areas would see large
in the future. This is because of the reduced and rapid frequency excursions that could last for
levels of inertia to oppose this change. This trend several tens of seconds after a normal generation
towards higher frequency sensitivity to incidents loss, large synchronous areas would not see the same
for generationdemand imbalances is important to size of frequency excursions (unless a significant
quantify. If the frequency changes too quickly or far disturbance occurred, such as a system split event).

Focus: the case of Ireland indicates the new number of machines in operation to meet demand.
levels of inertia will create new needs As can be seen in Figure 16 above, which shows
Ireland, as the smallest and a weakly interconnected system inertia trends, Ireland is predicted to have
system, with high levels of instantaneous levels of significantly reducing inherent system inertia in
intermittent renewable power, has already identified later years as we move towards high levels of non-
the inertia limits that it may accept on the network. synchronous generation. This means that mitigation
measures will be required to manage this situation.
The operational limit up until 14th November
has been set at 20,000MWs* (MW seconds) for EirGrid has been working with the regulators
system operation with up to 65% SNSP (system in Ireland to implement a change to the market
non-synchronous penetration). SNSP is mainly structure to increase significantly the payments
defined by the level of non-synchronous renewable for ancillary services, including inertia products, to
generation but is impacted by import and export mitigate this issue. It is expected that these changes
power into the All Ireland synchronous network will incentivise the market to deliver new ancillary
(Ireland and Northern Ireland). These operational service providers (in the event that this does not
limits are contingent on the rate of change of occur, EirGrid will bring forward projects directly).
frequency that the equipment on the system can It is intended to recalculate and rebalance these
withstand. Currently, this is 0.5Hz per second, payments annually to ensure the market continues
but it is planned to raise this to 1.0Hz per second to deliver as the system evolves.
which will result in a reduction in the required
inertia to around 12,000MWs. At the moment, * More recently, as part of a trial on increasing the
the combination of all machines in operation SNSP, limit inertia was increased to 23,000MWs
must always provide this inertia, meaning that during the trial. However, it is expected to be
the resulting inertia constant for the system (H) reduced to 20,000MWs once the trial is completed.
defined as the MWs divided by the combined
rating of the machines in MVA will vary with the

The analysis of inertia by country also brings primary energy sources that are free but variable in
further insight regarding the level of complexity in a nature. Hence, the high installed capacity of RES and
system split event. A system split is more prone to their close-to-zero marginal costs cause conventional
occur across congested transit corridors, thereby generation, with primary energy sources independent
interrupting these transits. As the transfer of power of weather conditions, to be displaced from the market.
is increasing in magnitude, distance and volatility,
the power imbalance following a system split event is The variability in the power output from RES, which is
likely to increase. This will need to be compensated driven by the variability of the primary energy resource,
by low frequency demand disconnection (LFDD) must be balanced, including forecast output deviations,
or fast frequency response. Defence plans6 are in order to maintain the frequency equilibrium. To cope
designed to help during severe disturbances, but with this situation, new flexibility sources will be
cannot stabilise all system split scenarios with necessary both from the generation and demand-
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

extreme imbalances. side response. This includes new roles for thermal
plants, RES participation, demand side response,
Different solutions and mitigation measures and storage. Also from the network side, strong
contribute to securing the power-system performance interconnection between countries will be essential to
in case of disturbances related to frequency. These exchange the power flows from flexibility sources.
services are more difficult to obtain from variable
renewables, and significant effort will probably ENTSO-E will further analyse to what extent
be required to develop the existing capacities, in the existing solutions will need to be extended
particular by implementing the network codes, and to guarantee a secure electricity system. The
bringing new technologies into the system (such as analyses above represent a positive first step to
fly-wheel inertia storage). enable the changes needed to provide adequate
dynamic behaviour.
Unlike conventional generation with costly but
controllable sources of primary energy, RES utilise

6

According to the SOGL: system defence plan means the technical and organisational measures to be undertaken to prevent the propagation or
31

deterioration of a disturbance in the transmission system in order to avoid a wide area disturbance and blackout state.
5.2

Transient and voltage-

stability-related aspects
Short-circuit power has commonly been used —— the reduced reactive demand due to the changing
as an indicator of the system strength and, nature of the demand; and
consequently, the ability of a synchronous —— the increased reactive gain from lightly loaded
generating unit to stay connected to the network circuits during low demand periods or during times
following a large disturbance and remain in of high output from the embedded generation.
synchronism with the system. A strongly meshed
system with enough synchronous generation The large fluctuations in reactive power demand
running at all times will have a high short- and reactive losses, and the reduction in shortcircuit
circuit level. power, generally result in an increase in both
instantaneous change in voltage (voltage step) and
Synchronous generation provides greater short- the final settled voltage after automated corrective
circuit current than equivalently rated converter actions have occurred (post-fault voltage).
connected RES. Therefore, as it is replaced by RES,
the short-circuit level will decline. Also, a generator’s The technological capabilities of transmission
contribution to providing a short-circuit reduces the connected synchronous generation to provide or
further away it is so, as the generated power has absorb reactive power is generally significantly
to be transmitted over long distances to demand higher compared to embedded RES with convertor
centres, the short-circuit power level will drop to very power electronic interfaces. Therefore, reactive
low levels. power reserves available in the transmission system
are diminishing as mainly convertor connected
This will result in faults causing deeper voltage dips, RES replaces synchronous connected generation
affecting the efficiency and security of the system. and some of this generation will connect to the
distribution system. Consequently, it is necessary to
Reactive power fluctuations ensure that sufficient alternative measures are made
A constant and reliable source of reactive power available to ensure that voltage excursions can be
is essential to maintain system voltage; a shortfall managed within permissible limits.
will reduce voltage and an excess will raise system
voltage. Both high and low voltages can lead to The exact location and technology of projects to
equipment failure, and consequentially loss of address the assessed needs for increased capacity
demand and ultimately blackouts. Some reactive in 2040 are not known at this time. These will
power devices in the system also monitor and be highly influential on future changes in system
try to respond to correct any excess or shortfall strength and reactive power provision compared to
accordingly. Fluctuations can lead to errors in these those at present.
corrective actions which can also impact on security
of supply. Consequently, the corresponding projects which will
compensate for these changes and provide adequate
The fluctuations in reactive power demand and dynamic behaviour cannot currently be determined
reactive losses are increasing, driven by a number either. However, ENTSO-E is committed to and will
of factors, including: conduct further studies to assess the mitigating
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

—— the higher reactive power losses associated with needs and projects for the 2040 scenarios as
larger power transits; capacity-related projects are developed.
32
5.3

How to adapt? Possible

solutions for future
system operations
The situation described above, along with details —— Dynamic system needs could lead to a limitation
in the Appendix of this document will lead to of cross-border exchanges between large and
new needs, the exact nature and scale of which small synchronous areas in some situations;
will need to be assessed in detail by system —— New roles for existing generators, which would
operators. This is expected to require significant become service providers able to react to
research and development efforts as well as changing operating conditions in real time,
a redefinition of the roles and responsibilities temporarily or permanently, for instance from
of system participants, and possibly new cross- decommissioned nuclear power plants (Germany);
border and internal transmission lines. —— Real-time monitoring of system inertia to ensure a
The possible solutions could include: minimum level of inertia is in the system at all times;
—— Procurement of inertia and reactive power as an
—— Implementation of connection codes: they will be ancillary service and activation when necessary
essential to ensure that the necessary technical (e.g. during high RES production), using possibly
requirements from generators, HVDC and demand aggregated sources coordinated with Distribution
related to dynamic stability are implemented; System Operators;
—— At the moment, immediate inertial response can —— Constraining RES and placing synchronous
only be met by synchronous generators. After generation with intrinsic inertia in the unit
immediate inertial response, fast-frequency commitment. This measure, which is easy to
response by sources other than synchronous implement as a short-term solution, could be less
generation are needed: converter-connected efficient in the long term;
generation, demand-side response, storage —— Investments on the network side: synchronous
(including batteries), and reserves shared condensers, SVCs, STATCOM, HVDC, series
between synchronous areas using HVDC; compensation, etc. to maintain stability and avoid
—— In the future, new capabilities, not yet available, curtailment of RES generation;
such as grid-forming converters7, are currently —— Observability and controllability of distributed
promising to be capable of providing immediate resources by the TSOs and DSOs as well as
inertial response. Grid-forming converters will strong coordination between both operators.
need research and development to demonstrate
they could be a solution and can be incorporated
into the grid in the future8;
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

7
I mplementation Guiding Document – High Penetration of Power Electronic Interfaced Power Sources: https://www.entsoe.eu/Documents/Network%20codes%20
documents/Implementation/CNC/170322_IGD25_HPoPEIPS.pdf
33

8
An example of related investigations is the MIGRATE project – Massive InteGRATion of power Electronic devices: https://www.h2020-migrate.eu/
Section 6

Description of
the scenarios

Figure 17 overleaf gives an overview

of the 2018 ENTSOs’ scenarios which
served as a framework to identify the
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

needs presented in this document.

34
35 European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
Figure 17: Scenario-building framework indicating bottom-up and top-down scenarios

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Distributed Distributed
Generation Generation

External from
15% 15% 25% 25% European Commission
4% 0% 6% 1%
ENTSO-E/ENTSOG
Best Best The EUCO Global Climate scenario
Estimate Estimate Scenario Action
System share of wind
11% 4% 14% 6% 21% 9% 34% 17%
System share
1% 2% 5% 0% 9% 3% of solar power
Sustainable Sustainable Biomethane
Transition Transition production share

19% 7% 27% 10% Power-to-gas

production share
2% 3% 0%

The present study analysed the three 2040 Sustainable Transition

scenarios:
Targets reached through national regulation,
Distributed Generation (DG) emission trading schemes and subsidies. Steady
Presumers at the centre – small-scale decentralised RES growth, moderate economic growth, moderate
generation, batteries and fuel switching. Society development of electrification of heating and
engaged and empowered by strong EU policies and transport. Scenario in line with the EU 2030 target
efficient Emissions Trading System. High economic but slightly behind its 2050 target.
growth. High electrification of heating and transport
sectors. An efficient usage of renewable energy The regulation, with more national focus on climate
resources is enabled at the EU level as a whole. change, takes the shape of legislation that imposes
binding emissions targets. The ST scenario is driven
2030 and 2050 EU emission targets are reached. by national subsidies and will result in an inefficient
usage of renewable resources.
Global Climate Action
Full-speed global decarbonisation, large-scale A more detailed description of the scenarios is
renewables development in both electricity and available in the ‘Scenario Report’: https://www.entsoe.
gas sectors. High penetration rate of disruptive eu/Documents/TYNDP%20documents/14475_
technologies (smart cities, demand response, ENTSO_ScenarioReport_Main.pdf Key figures.
power to gas etc.).

Global methods regarding CO2 reductions are

in place and the EU is on track for its 2030 and
2050 decarbonisation targets. An efficient usage
of renewable energy sources will be secured by
a strong EU policy.
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
36
Figure 18: Electricity installed generation capacity by source and scenario

Installed production capacities per scenario

2500

2000

1500
GW

1000

500

0
2020 2025 2025 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO ST 2040 DG 2040 GCA
CBG GBC 2030 2040

Nuclear Coal + other fossil Natural gas Peak Hydro and pumped storage
Wind Solar Biomass and other RES

Figure 19: Electricity net generation by source and consumption per scenario

Generation and consumption per scenario

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000
TWh

2500

2000
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

1500

1000

500

0
2020 2025 2025 ST 2030 DG 2030 EUCO ST 2040 DG 2040 GCA
CBG GBC 2030 2040

Nuclear Coal + other fossil Natural gas Peak Hydro and pumped storage
Wind Solar Biomass and other RES Demand
37
Figure 20: 2040 key figures

Megatonnes of CO2 Electric heat pumps, in millions

Megatonnes of CO2 Electric heat pumps, in millions
1000 100
1000 100
800 80
800 80
600 60
600 60
400 800 40
400 800 750 40
750 600 58 60
200 600 20 58 60
200 20
18
0 0 18
0 Sustainable Distributed Global Climate 0 Sustainable Distributed Global Climate
Sustainable
Transition Distributed Global
Generation Climate
Action Sustainable
Transition Distributed Global
Generation Climate
Action
Transition Generation Action Transition Generation Action

Electric vehicles, in millions

Electric vehicles, in millions
100
100
80
80
60
60
40 80
40 80 65
20 50 65
20 50
0
0 Sustainable Distributed Global Climate
Sustainable
Transition Distributed Global
Generation Climate
Action
Transition Generation Action

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

38
39 European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
Section 7

Methodology

This section describes the

IoSN methodology, including
improvements to the process
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

compared to the previous edition

of the TYNDP.
40
Details about the methodology have been divided —— Improved! More consistent approach to determine
into two subsections, describing the market as well demand profiles for each zone.
as the network studies approaches:
—— Improved! Demand-side response as well as
—— The market studies methodology is described in electric vehicles have been considered with a
section 7.1. It describes the simulations carried out more refined approach that improves the accuracy
by market models to identify future needs based of the calculations.
on SEW and standard costs of potential capacity
increases. It also includes the identification In parallel with the IoSN process, dedicated market
process of additional increases due to integration and network studies have been carried out to show
of RES and avoidance of SoS issues. what would happen in the 2040 scenarios if the
—— The network studies methodology is shown in grid did not evolve beyond 2020. These studies
section 7.2. It covers a standard costs evaluation, highlight the main problems, system needs and
load-flow analyses and a description of security present drivers for the continued development of the
analyses. transmission system.

The main improvements regarding the modelling As a result of these studies, the following main
and the methodology itself, when compared to the indicators are provided:
previous TYNDP 2016 package, comprise:
—— NEW! Focus on long-term 2040 scenarios for —— Unserved energy [GWh]
the IoSN for the first time. —— Curtailed energy [GWh]
—— CO2 emissions [Mtonnes]
—— NEW! Several climate conditions (wind, solar, —— Average hourly cost differences [€] and marginal
hydro) have been included in the analyses. cost yearly average [€]
—— Cross-border and country-internal bottleneck
—— NEW! IoSN, considering not only economic maps.
indicators but also including SoS and
RES integration. The figure below shows the main process of
identifying capacity increases:
—— NEW! Medium- and long-term scenarios
have been developed in close cooperation
with ENTSOG and with external stakeholder
involvement.

Figure 21: Overview, IoSN approach

Market studies Network studies Regional expert studies

— Identification of potential — Identification of cross-border — Integration of renewables
needs based on marginal and internal bottlenecks (avoidance of curtailed
cost differences and costs — Update of standard costs energy)
of capacity increases for capacity increases — Reduction of risk of
— Simple check of economic SoS issues
efficiency of identified — Also: interconnection
needs target checks
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
41
7.1

IoSN methodology –
market approach
The market simulations, performed within the account as a main driver, whereas other elements
IoSN framework, have been carried out for could also be taken into account in a definition of
all the TYNDP 2018 long-term 2040 scenarios a new specific additional capacity increase. Another
Sustainable Transition, Global Climate Action simplification was the fact that the screening was
and Distributed Generation. carried out with a standard capacity increase of
500MW to harmonise the approach across the areas
Three different climate years (1982, 1984 and 2007) as much as possible. Finally, the standard costs of
have been considered for each scenario. In order the increases were assessed by experts, taking into
to provide high-quality and consistent results, three account, as far as possible, the specificity of the
different market tools (PowrSym, BID and Antares) area (e.g. presence of mountain or sea), internal grid
have been used. The Technical Appendix section 1.6 considerations as well as knowledge from previous
provides a description of the methodology used to projects at these borders (if any).
determine which climate years to use.
In addition to market integration, SoS and RES
The aim of these studies was to identify potential integration were considered in the IoSN process.
capacity increases in a coordinated pan-European Market analyses provided results of simulations
manner, also building on the expertise of all TSOs. where the capacity increases identified in the SEW
Potential capacity increases could be triggered by iterations were implemented. Regional market and
drivers like market integration, integration of renewable network experts considered the output of these
energy sources and SoS issues. simulations in their investigation of additional
capacity increases based on SoS and RES needs.
The studies started using a 2030 grid9 and The main parameters considered by the regional
considered an iterative approach carried out experts were:
individually for every scenario. Market models were
used to calculate hourly marginal cost differences — For security of supply needs10, the remaining
between countries. For the borders with the highest capacity, defined as
factor of marginal cost difference divided by the Avail. capacity(h) - Demand(h) ± IC contribution(h)
standard cost of an increase, an NTC increment was RC(%) =
Demand(h)
studied. The SEW from this increase was compared
to the investment cost of a potential standard project —— For RES integration needs, the curtailed energy
on that border and, if the calculation gave a positive (GWh) (provided directly by the tools used in the
result, the increase on this border was included in the process) was considered.
next round of simulations.
Finally, with the scenario capacities derived from the
The more reinforcements were added on a given steps above, market analyses investigated if the 15%
border, the lower the SEW from additional increases interconnection ratio criteria (15% of RES installed
was and generally the more expensive additional capacity) were met in all market nodes. If not, then
projects became. Thus, the proper capacity was regional experts could provide additional capacity
obtained when the expected additional SEW no increases.
longer exceeded future investment cost.
It is worth pointing out that the additional capacity
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

It must be noted that this approach included some increases identified in this step refer to potential
simplification. For instance, only the SEW increase needs to be further investigated, and they will not
due to an increased market coupling was taken into necessarily result in new projects in TYNDP 2018.

9
T YNDP 2016 V1 grid, used to speed up the computation (TYNDP 2018 values were still being defined in mid-2017).
10
Since TYNDP 2018 scenarios are adequate by definition, it is not possible to see any energy not supplied.
42

This definition will be discussed during the TYNDP 2020 scenario-building consultation phase.
7.2

IoSN methodology –
network approach
Based on the results of the market simulations, Results of the network analyses were maps showing:
network studies were performed on detailed —— Cross-border challenges between countries when
grid models which included all buses, going to 2040 scenarios but not evolving the grid
lines and transformers in the transmission beyond 2020. These maps show if borders are
systems explored. The scope of these network safe (green), if bottlenecks are identified in N-1
simulations was to analyse if the capacity situations (yellow) or if bottlenecks are already
increases suggested by market studies present in N situation (red);
increased network bottlenecks. —— Internal challenges inside countries when the
production/consumption of the 2040 scenarios
Network analyses have been carried out on an hourly is applied to the internal grids of 2020. Countries
year-round calculation basis but where the translation were coloured green if only some reinforcements
from market to network studies was done using a are needed, yellow if an important number of
combination of: reinforcements are needed or red if a huge number
—— PTDF (power transfer distribution factor) matrix or heavy reinforcements are needed (red);
approach: market data for each hour was —— Additional internal challenges inside countries due
transposed into the simplified grid represented to capacity increases as a result of the market
by the PTDF matrix. Then PTDF flows were step of the IoSN approach.
calculated for each of the 8,760 hours, on each
synchronous border and each of the internal
transmission lines elected by each TSO;
—— Computing all 8,760 hours in a year in DC or AC
load flows directly in load-flow tools with a detailed
representation of the grid model.

Bottleneck analysis was performed taking into

account security of the network, that means
fulfilling the planning standards of each system,
with all grid elements available (N criterion) and
also considering the outage of every relevant grid
element (N-1 criterion).

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

43
 Section 8

Next steps

44 European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

This report describes, for the first time,
studies focusing on the 2040 time
horizon. Many new system needs were
identified for this long-term time horizon
and it could be concluded that additional
capacity increases are necessary to
evolve the European energy system in
order for it to be on track to fulfil the
climate goals for 2050.

ENTSO-E is now working on solutions for the identified

needs. In summer 2018, the first draft of the TYNDP 2018
document package was published for consultation. This
package, alongside a number of specific Insight Reports,
included CBAs of all approved projects submitted to
ENTSO-E for assessment. It allows all stakeholders to
understand how a project contributes to overcome the
energy trilemma, i.e. a sustainable, affordable and secure
European energy system. After the public consultation
phase at the end of 2018, the TYNDP was submitted
to ACER for opinion and published in its final version in
October 2019.

Figure 22 below gives an overview of the publications in the TYNDP 2018. This pan-European
System Needs report is published together with the six Regional Investment Plans and Summary
leaflets of these documents.

Final
Scenario
Report

MAF
Report
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

Pan-European
System Needs
Report
Draft TYNDP
Scenario Publications
Report Package
Regional
Investment
Plans

Monitoring
Project
Update
List
Report
45
Section 9

Appendices

9.1 GLOSSARY FOR ACRONYMS

9.2 T ERMINOLOGY
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
46
4747 European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
9.1

Abbreviations
The following list shows abbreviations used in the current report:

Acronym Description
AC Alternating Current
ACER Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators
CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis
CCS Carbon Capture and Storage
CHP Combined Heat and Power Generation
DC Direct Current
EH2050 e-Highway2050
EIP Energy Infrastructure Package
ENTSO-E European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity
ENTSOG European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas
EU European Union
GTC Grid Transfer Capability
HV High Voltage
HVAC High Voltage AC
HVDC High Voltage DC
IEA International Energy Agency
IEM Internal Energy Market
KPI Key Performance Indicator
LCC Line Commutated Converter
LOLE Loss of Load Expectation
MAF Mid-term Adequacy Forecast
MS Member State
MWh Megawatt Hour
NGC Net Generation Capacity
NRA National Regulatory Authority
NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan
NTC Net Transfer Capacity
OHL Overhead Line
PCI Projects of Common Interest
PINT Put IN one at the Time
PST Phase Shifting Transformer
RegIP Regional Investment Plan
RES Renewable Energy Sources
RG BS Regional Group Baltic Sea
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

RG CCE Regional Group Continental Central East

RG CCS Regional Group Continental Central South
RG CSE Regional Group Continental South East
RG CSW Regional Group Continental South West
RG NS Regional Group North Sea
SEW Socio-Economic Welfare
SoS Security of Supply
TEN-E Trans-European Energy Networks
TOOT Take Out One at the Time
TSO Transmission System Operator
TWh Terawatt Hour
TYNDP Ten-Year Network Development Plan
VOLL Value of Lost Load
VSC Voltage Source Converter
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9.2

Terminology
The following list describes a number of terms used in this System Needs Analysis report.

Term Description
Cluster Several investment items, matching the CBA clustering rules. Essentially, a project clusters all investment items that
have to be realised in total to achieve a desired effect.
Congestion The revenue derived by interconnector owners from the sale of the interconnector capacity through auctions. In
revenue / rent general, the value of the congestion rent is equal to the price differential between the two connected markets,
multiplied by the capacity of the interconnector.
Congestion Means a situation in which an interconnection linking national transmission networks cannot accommodate all
physical flows resulting from international trade requested by market participants, because of a lack of capacity of the
interconnectors and/or the national transmission systems concerned.
Corridors The CBA clustering rules proved challenging for complex grid reinforcement strategies: the largest investment needs
may require some 30 investment items, scheduled over more than five years but addressing the same concern. In this
case, for the sake of transparency, they are formally presented in a series – a corridor –
of smaller projects, each matching the clustering rules.
Cost-benefit Analysis carried out to define to what extent a project is worthwhile from a social perspective.
analysis (CBA)
Grid transfer Represents the aggregated capacity of the physical infrastructure connecting nodes in reality; it is not only set by the
capacity (GTC) transmission capacities of cross-border lines but also by the ratings of so-called “critical” domestic components. The
GTC value is thus generally not equal to the sum of the capacities of the physical lines that are represented by this
branch; it is represented by a typical value across the year.
Investment Individual equipment or facility, such as a transmission line, a cable or a substation.
Net transfer The maximum total exchange programme between two adjacent control areas compatible with security standards
capacity (NTC) applicable in all control areas of the synchronous area, and taking into account the technical uncertainties on future
network conditions.
N-1 criterion The rule according to which elements remaining in operation within a TSO’s responsibility area after a contingency
from the contingency list must be capable of accommodating the new operational situation without violating
operational security limits.
Project Either a single investment or a set of investments, clustered together to form a project, in order to achieve a common
goal.
Project candidate Investment(s) considered for inclusion in the TYNDP.
Project of A project which meets the general and at least one of the specific criteria defined in Art. 4 of the TEN-E Regulation
common interest and which has been granted the label of PCI project according to the provisions of the TEN-E Regulation.
Put IN one at the Methodology that considers each new network investment/project (line, substation, PST or other transmission network
Time (PINT) device) on the given network structure one by one and evaluates the load flows over the lines with and without the
examined network reinforcement.
Reference The existing network plus all mature TYNDP developments, allowing the application of the TOOT approach.
network
Reference Cross-border capacity of the reference grid, used for applying the TOOT/PINT methodology in the assessment
capacity according to the CBA.
Scenario A set of assumptions for modelling purposes related to a specific future situation in which certain conditions
regarding gas demand and gas supply, gas infrastructures, fuel prices and global context occur.
Take Out One at Methodology that consists of excluding investment items (line, substation, PST or other transmission network
the Time (TOOT) device) or complete projects from the forecasted network structure on a one-by-one basis and to evaluate the load
flows over the lines with and without the examined network reinforcement.
Ten-Year Network The Union-wide report carried out by ENTSO-E every other year as (TYNDP) part of its regulatory obligation as
Development defined under Article 8, para 10 of Regulation (EC) 714 / 2009.
Plan
Total transfer See Transmission capacity below.
capacity (TTC)
European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

Transmission The maximum transmission of active power in accordance with the system security criteria which is permitted in
capacity (also transmission cross-sections between the subsystems/areas or individual installations.
called total
transfer capacity)
Vision Plausible future states selected as wide-ranging possible alternatives.
49
9.3

Useful information
For queries about this report or the TYNDP 2018,
please contact the ENTSO-E team which
coordinated the release of this report:
Jean-Baptiste Paquel, Dante Powell and Andriy Vovk
info@entsoe.eu

For press queries, please contact:

Claire Camus
media@entsoe.eu

ENTSO-E – European Network of

Transmission System Operators for Electricity
Avenue de Cortenbergh 100
1000 Brussels Belgium
Phone: +32 2 741 09 50

European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

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51 European Power System 2040 – Completing the map
 European Power System 2040 – Completing the map

ENTSO-E AISBL
Avenue de
Cortenbergh 100,
1000 Brussels,
Belgium
Tel (+32) 2 741 09 50
info@entsoe.eu
www.entsoe.eu
©ENTSO-E 2018
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