THE IMPACT OF FLOODING ON SOCIAL SERVICES

IN THE TAMALE METROPOLIS OF GHANA

BY

Alhassan Tiyuniba Hafiz (MSc. Engineering)

A Thesis submitted to the Department of Agricultural

Engineering, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and
Technology in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the
degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE
College of Engineering

September, 2014

1
 DECLARATION

I hereby declare that this submission is my own work towards the MSc and that, to the best of

my knowledge, it contains no material previously published by another person nor material

which has been accepted for the award of any other degree of the university, except where due

acknowledgement has been made in the text.

ALHASSAN TIYUNIBA HAFIZ ................................... ............................

(PG819112) (SIGNATURE) (DATE)

Certified by:

PROF. S. K. AGODZO .................................... ..........................

(SUPERVISOR) (SIGNATURE) (DATE)

DR. G. K. ANORNU ………………………… …………………

(SUPERVISOR) (SIGNATURE) (DATE)

Certified by:

PROF. S. K. AGODZO ………………………. …….……………

(HEAD OF DEPARTMENT) (SIGNATURE) (DATE)

2
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

My sincere gratitude goes to the Almighty God for His guidance and presence throughout my

academic life. Alllah has been good to me and has supplied all my needs during this research.

Thanks be to God for bringing me this far.

I also wish to express my heartfelt gratitude and appreciation to my supervisors Prof. S. K.

Agodzo and Dr. G. K. Anornu. I am so grateful for your immense help. You have consistently

guided me with constructive criticisms and meaningful suggestions to help me enrich my work

while making it very concise. I also thank M r. Ussif Ibrahim for his assistance in generating

maps for my study area and being of immense help in diverse ways. I say thank you for

everything. God richly bless you all.

A very big gratitude goes to my uncle, Mr Iddrisu Neindow, my aunty Safura Neindow and my

mother Adamu Neindow. You have always urged me on and challenged me to achieve great

heights in academia. Uncle, you have never given up on me and have been very supportive

during this Masters programme. To all siblings especially my brothers Iddrisu Azindow Yakubu,

Seidu Iddrisu and Seidu Zakaria, I say thank you for your support throughout and confidence in

me which have spurred me on throughout my education.

My heartfelt gratitude goes to my loving friend Moses Yao Kobli who has been very supportive

throughout my Masters programme. God richly bless you for your many words of

encouragement and helping me especially with sourcing data for my thesis.

3
 ABSTRACT

Floods do occur annually in the Tamale Metropolis flood prone zones. Floods occur when a body

of water rises to overflow land which is normally not submerged. The Metropolis flood prone

zones are a home to various communities namely Sogunayili, Gbalo, Jisonayili, Gumani and Fuo

which were selected for this study. Flooding in the river basin affects life and property in many

ways. The causes and socioeconomic impacts of flooding in the Metropolis flood prone zones

have been investigated in this research. The cross-sectional research design was used in this

study. Primary and secondary data were used. The purposive sampling method was used to

choose a good sample to investigate the problem better. Related institutions were also contacted

to give their own perspectives of the problem. It was found out that the causes of flooding in the

Metropolis flood prone zones are both natural and artificial. Climate change has contributed to

the natural cause of flooding through rise in average temperatures and increase in annual and

seasonal rainfall at least, over the last twenty-seven years. Rise in temperature and increase in

rainfall have led to increases in the discharge of the river with the excess overflowing to inundate

the flood plain. The man-made causes of flooding in the Metropolis include poor land use,

unplanned development of settlements and indiscriminate disposal of refuse into and on the

banks of the river. The socioeconomic impacts of floods in the Metropolis include loss of life

and property, disruption of the transport system as well as financial and health problems faced by

inhabitants of the zoned areas. From the research, it was established that average temperatures

and rainfall have generally been increasing over the last twenty-seven years and the

indiscriminate disposal of refuse into and on the banks of the river have led to the annual floods

in the Metropolis. Also, the actions and inactions of concerned institutions have encouraged the

haphazard development of settlements in the zoned areas. The resettlement of communities in the

4
zoned areas and the enforcement of laws which protect the environment and its inhabitants as

well as the proper disposal of refuse are recommended solutions to the problem.

5
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Declaration........................................................................................................................... ii

Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................. iii

Abstract................................................................................................................................ iv

Table of Contents.................................................................................................................vii

List of Tables....................................................................................................................... xi

List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... xii

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1. 1 Background to the Study.................................................................................................1

1.2 Problem Statement……....................................................................................................2

1.3 Objectives of the Study.....................................................................................................3

1.3.1 Specific Objectives of Study………………………………………………………..…3

1.4 Research Questions...........................................................................................................3

1.5 Propositions / Hypothesis.................................................................................................4

1.6 Justification for the study.................................................................................................4

HAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Types and causes of flooding……………………………………………..…….…….…5

2.1.1 Pluvial or overland floods………………………………………………….……...….10

2.1.2 River or fluvial floods…………………………………………………….………......10

2.1.3 Coastal floods…………………………………………………………….….….…….11

1.2.4 Groundwater floods………………………………………………………….….….…11

2.1.5 Flash Floods………………………………………………………...…………………12

2.1.6 Failure of artificial systems…………………………………………...……………….13

2.1.7 Semi-permanent flooding………………………………………………..……………14

2.2 Probability of flooding…………………………………………………………………..15

6
2.2.1 Probability and occurrence of floods…………………………………….….………...16

2.2.2 Recurrence interval………………………………………………………….………....16

2.2.3 Flood probability…………………………………………………………………...….17

2.3 Flood hazard assessment……………………………………………………………..….17

2.4 Probability of flood into hazard estimation………………………………………..……18

2.5 How to prepare a flood hazard map (Riverine)……………………………………….....20

2.6.1 Calculation of return period of flooding……………………………………………....20

2.6.2 Model result validation…………………………………………………….………….21

2.6.3 Monitoring and regular updating of maps…………………………………………….21

2.7 Accounting for climate change and sea level rise………………………………………21

2.8 Potential impacts of climate change on cities…………………………………………..22

2.9 Climate change and variability……………………………………………….…............24

2.9.1 Observed changes…………………………………………………………….……….24

2.9.2 Projected changes……………………………………………………………………..25

2.10 Flood risk management………………………………………………………………..28

2.11 Urbanization, urban expansion and urban poverty………………………….……..…28

2.11.1 Urbanization trends…………………………………………………………………29

2.11.2 Defining the ‘urban’…………………………………………………………………29

2.11.3 Implications of urbanization………………………………………….………….….30

2.11.4 The urban poor………………………………………………………………….…..31

2.11.5 Urban challenges……………………………………………………………....……31

2.11.6 Opportunities……………………………………......................................................33

2.12 Direct impacts on primary receptors………………………………………………….33

2.12.1 People…………………………………………………............................................34

2.12.2 Buildings and contents………………………………………………………..……35

7
2.12.3 Animals and crops……………………………………………………………….…41

2.12.4 Cascading impacts…………………………………………………………….……42

2.12.5 Post-disaster damage assessment…………………………………………………...42

2.13 Indirect and other effects of flooding…………………………………………..…….43

2.13.1 Natural environment………………………………………………………………..43

2.13.2 Health impacts……………………………………………………………………...44

2.13.3 Human development impacts…………………………………………………….…45

2.13.4 Economic and financial impacts……………………………………………………46

2.13.5 Impact on long-term economic growth……………………………………….…….46

2.13.6 Impact on development goals………………………………………………….……47

2.13.7 Impact on livelihoods……………………………………………………………….47

2.13.8 Business interruption……………………………………………………….……….48

2.13.9 Political and institutional issues……………………………………………………..48

2.14 Vulnerability and risk mapping…………………………………………………….…49

2.14.1 Assessing vulnerability……………………………………………………………...51

2.15 Summary of Literature Review…………………………………………………….....52

CHAPTER THREE: MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1.1 Location and the People………………………………………………………….….54

3.1.2 Climate………………………………………………………………………………56

3.1.3 Soils………………………………………………………………………………….57

3.1.4 Drainage……………………………………………………………………………...57

3.1.5 Development Indicators………………………………………………………….…..59

3.2 Study methods…………………………………………………………………………60

3.3 Conceptual Framework….…………………………………………………………….60

3.4 Tools and techniques for collecting and analysing data……………………………….62

8
3.5 Scope of the study..........................................................................................................62

3.6 Limitations ....................................................................................................................63

3.7 Methodology..................................................................................................................63

3.7.1 Research design……………………………………………………………..……….63

3.7.2 Types and sources of data collected…………………………………………………63

3.7.3 Methods of data collection………………………………………………………..…64

3.8 Sampling design and technique……………………………………………………......64

3.9 Data analysis…………………………………………………………………………...65

1.12 Presentation of results………………………………………………………….……..66

1.13 Organisation of the study……………………………………………………………..66

CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………67

4.2 Bio- data of respondents……………………………………………………………….67

4.3 Reasons for continuous stay in flood prone area……………………………………….68

4.4 Causes of flooding in the tamale metropolis…………………………………………...70

4.4.1 Waste disposal………………………………………………………………………..71

4.4.2 Land use……………………………………………………………………………...71

4.5 Frequencies of flooding in the study area……………………………………………...72

4.6 Natural causes of flooding……………………………………………………………..74

4.7 impacts of flooding………………………………………………………….…………76

4.7.1 Social Impacts………………………………………………………………………..76

.7.2 Property Damage……………………………………………………………………....77

4.7.3 Economic Effects of flooding………………………………………………………..78

4.7.4 Effects on physical structures (e.g. housing)…………………………………………79

4.7.5 Other types of effects………………………………………………………………...80

9
4.8 Coping strategies of residents to floods……………………………………………….80

4.9 Flood prevention and management……………………………………………………82

4.9.1Belief in flood prevention…………………………………………………………….82

4.10 Role of stakeholders in flood mitigation……………………………………………..84

4.10.1: Households………………………………………………………………………...84

4.10.2 Community…………………………………………………………………………85

4.10.3 Tamale Metropolitan Assembly (TaMA)…………………………………………..86

4.10.4 Central Government………………………………………………………………..87

4.11 Institutional perspectives of floods in the zoned area………………………………..88

4.11.1 Town and Country Planning Department (TCPD)…………………………………88

4.11.2 Metropolitan Waste Management Department (MWMD), Tamale…………….….89

4.11.3 National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO), Tamale………………...90

4.11.4 Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMA), Tamale…………………………………....91

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND

RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1. Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………....92

5.1.1. Causes of flooding…………………………………………………………………..92

5.1.2 Impacts of flooding…………………………………………………………………...92

5.1.3 The role of the related institutions……………………………………………………93

5.1.4 Short term mitigation measures………………………………………………………93

5.1.5 Long term mitigation measures……………………………………………………....94

5.2 Recommendations……………………………………………………………………...94

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1: Types and causes of floods………………………………………….…………..8

Table 2.2 Types of flood models…………………………………………………….……..19

10
Table 2.3 Damages to electricity services in floods-affected areas of Yemen (million YR)…40

Table 2.4: Damages and Losses in the water supply and sanitation sector…………………..41

Table 2.5: Different types of vulnerability and the factors affecting their rate of exposure…51

Table 3.1: Flood prone areas and population at risk in the Metropolis….….…………….......65

Table 4.1: Reasons for Continuous Stay………………………………………….….……….68

Table 4.2: Methods of waste disposal by respondents……………………………….………71

Table 4.3: Land use plan implementation according to respondents……………...…………72

Table 4.4: Duration of floods………………………………………………………………..73

Table 4.5: Property Damage due to Floods.............................................................................77

Table 4.6: Strategies adopted to cope with the danger of floods………………………...…82

Table 4.7: Flood Prevention…………………………………………………………………82

Table 4.8: Reports made to authorities about annual floods………………………….……..83

Table 4.9: Flood prevention…………………………………………………………………84

Table 4.10: Households views of solving flood problem in the zoned area…………………85

Table 4.11: Communities views about floods mitigation in the area of study……………...85

Table 4.12: Metropolis assembly views of flood mitigation………………………………..87

Table 4.13: Central Government- views of floods mitigation by residents………………...88

Table 14: Annual mean rainfall (mm) and deviations from mean (mm) for 27 years……...107

Table 15: Annual mean temperature (⁰C) and deviations from mean (⁰C) for 27 years.......110

11
LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1: Stagnant water seven months after the 2010 floods in Baguida, Lome…………14

Figure 2.2: conceptualized stages of flood ris..........................................................................15

Figure 2.3: Informal Settlement in Mexico City, Copyright: UN-HABITAT………………32

Figure 2.4: Reported economic losses and deaths…………………………….………….….34

Figure 2.5: Example of a depth damage curve for one story residence with basement……...37

Figure 3.1: Map showing boundary of TaMA with Sagnerigu District……………………...55

Figure 3.2: Map showing selected communities in Sagnerigu District…………………...….56

Figure 3.3: Map showing drainage basin in TaMA…………………………………………..58

Figure 3.4 Map showing drainage basin and 3D in TaMA……………………..……….……58

Figure 3.5 Map showing 3D drainage basin in TaMA………………………………………..59

Figure 3.6 Conceptual Framework diagram………………………………………………......61

Figure 4.1: Desire to move out………………………………………………………….….…69

Figure 4.2: Causes of flooding……………………………………………………………..…70

Figure 4.3 Periods of Annual Floods........................................................................................73

Figure 4.4: Scatter plot between rainfall deviations (mm) and temperature deviations (⁰C)…74

Figure 4.5: Social Effects of Floods…………………………..................................................77

Figure 4.6: Economic Effects of Floods……………………………………………..….……79

12
Figure 4.7: Effects of Floods on Housing……………….……………………………………80

Figure 8: Graph showing deviations from annual average rainfall (1987-2013)……………..108

Figure 9: Graph showing deviations from total annual mean temperature (⁰C) for 27 years…111

REFERENCES ………………………………………………………………………………...95

APPENDIX 1 Calculation of sample size..................................................................................104

APPENDIX 2 Calculation of Standard deviations for annual mean rainfalls………………...106

APPENDIX 3 Table and graph showing the standard deviations of rainfall............................107

APPENDIX 4 Calculation of Standard deviations for temperature..........................................109

APPENDIX 5 Table and graph of standard deviations of annual mean temperatures………..110

APPENDIX 6 HOUSEHOLD QUESTIONNAIRE................................................................112

APPENDIX 7 SAMPLE INSTITUTIONAL QUESTIONNAIRE.........................................120

13
 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study

Flooding is an old phenomenon, which can be traced back to the biblical history of Noah and the
arc. Flooding is still an occurrence in this age and cannot be eliminated, as it is a natural
phenomenon that leaves little to be influenced by human beings. Floods are natural phenomena,
but they become a cause for serious concern when they exceed the coping capacities of affected
communities, damaging lives and properties (Abhas et al., 2011). Globally, floods are frequently
occurring destructive natural event, affecting both rural and urban settlements. Floods cause
about one third of all deaths, one third of all injuries and one third of all damage from natural
disasters (Askew, 1999).

Flooding has been defined in various ways. It is believed to be a natural and inevitable process
which occurs when a river’s channel cannot hold all the water supplied to it by its watershed
(Geology Labs On-Line, 2008). An all-embracing definition is that given by Ayoade (1988) as:
“A flood is said to occur when a body of water rises to overflow land which is normally not
submerged”. When a river floods its basin, water spills out over its channel onto the floodplain.

Floods usually result from a combination of meteorological and hydrological extremes, such as
extreme precipitation and flows. However, it can also result from human created vulnerability
which is an outcome of our interaction with the environment. Human activities such as designing
and locating infrastructure, exploiting natural resources and concentrating population among
others are some of the causes of flooding (Hualou, 2011). According to Action Aid (2006), flood
hazards are natural phenomena, but damage and losses from floods are the consequence of
human action. Flooding of property and land again can be a result of unplanned growth and
development in floodplains, or from the breach of a dam or the overtopping of an embankment
that fails to protect planned developments. Urbanization has become the major feature of the
world’s demographic growth, with the populations of cities, towns and villages engorged,
particularly in developing countries. In many countries of the world, people moving from rural
areas to cities, or within cities, often settle in areas that are highly exposed to flooding. A lack of
flood defence mechanism can make them highly vulnerable. Land use changes like urban

14
development that reduces the permeability of soils and increases surface runoff also increase the
risk of flooding. In many cases this overloads drainage systems that were not designed to cope
with augmented flows (Abhas et al., 2011).

Excess water in and of itself is not a problem, rather the impacts of flooding are felt when this
water interacts with natural and human-made environments in a negative sense, causing damage,
death and disruption (Abhas et al., 2011). The experience of flooding for an urban slum dweller
will be very different to the rural farmer. To the rural farmer, floods are a natural force to be
harnessed or endured for the long-term benefits it may bring, but for the urban dweller flooding
is at best, a nuisance and at worst a disaster which destroys all possessions. As a result, floods
are upsetting and overwhelming more urban areas, where unplanned development in floodplains,
ageing drainage infrastructures, increased road surface and other impermeable surfaces, and a
lack of flood risk reduction activities all contribute to the impacts experienced. These problems
are compounded by the effects of changing climate (Abhas et al., 2011).

People resident or working in flood plains must be mindful of the fact that there is an ever
present threat of floods. The probability may be high or low as in some area water courses. Yet
the possibility is there always. Even those who live above the level of possible flood in a flood
plain may find their access or services cut off by floods. Such people must acquire the
knowledge that will help them to face floods with confidence and mitigate the attendant risks and
discomfort (Abhas et al., 2011). The management of flood risk also requires knowledge of the
types and causes of flooding. This understanding is essential in designing measures and solutions
which can prevent or limit damage from specific types of flood. Equally important is the
knowledge of where and how often flood events are likely to occur. This is a critical step in
understanding the necessity or urgency and priority for flood risk mitigation.

1.2 Problem Statement

In many countries of the world, people moving from rural areas to cities, or within cities, often
settle in areas that are highly exposed to flooding. Lack of flood defence mechanisms can make
them highly vulnerable. Improper land use can also increase the risk of flooding, urban
development that reduces the permeability of soils, increases surface runoff. In many cases this

15
overloads drainage systems that were not designed to cope with augmented flows (Abhas et al.,
2011). These are the key problems facing flood management in the world, and Tamale
Metropolitan Area (TaMA) is not excluded. Ghana is not immune to the socio-economic and the
negative developmental impacts of floods.

In 2007, the TaMA and other parts of northern regions witnessed prolonged dry spells followed
by intense rainfall. The rainfall amount in August 2007 was more than 300 millimetres (WFP,
2010). This led to 56 deaths, over 54,000 homes destroyed and 325,000 people affected. In 2009,
floods displaced over 121,000 people, destroyed about 5,104 houses, 13 schools collapsed and
30,000 acres of farm lands destroyed (Kunateh, 2009). In 2010, there were media reports about
destroyed lives and properties by floods. For instance, Monday, 13 September, 2010 issue of the
Daily Graphic reported of 17 deaths which were the result of the opening of the Bagri and
Kampainga spillway and torrential rains in the northern regions of Ghana (Amenuveve, 2010;
Indepth Africa, 2010). In this regard, there is the need to examine the impact of flooding on the
social services in the Tamale Metropolitan Assembly of the Northern Region of Ghana and
propose flood management measures necessary to tackle the predicament.

1.3 Objectives of Study

1.3.1 Main objective

The main objective of the study was to examine the impact of flooding on the social services in
Tamale Metropolitan area of the Northern Region of Ghana

1.3.2 Specific Objectives of Study

 To assess the climate change induced causes of floods in the Tamale metropolis
 To assess the human induced causes of floods in the Tamale metropolis
 To assess the impact of floods on the social services delivery in the Tamale Metropolis
 To propose flood management measures necessary to minimise the impacts in the Tamale
Metropolis

1.4 Research Questions

Questions the study seeks to answer are as follows:

16
  What are the climate changes induced causes of floods in the Tamale metropolis?
 What are the human induced causes of floods in the Tamale metropolis?
 What are the impacts of floods on the social services delivery in the Tamale Metropolis?
 What can be done to prevent or minimize the impacts of floods in the future in Tamale
metropolis?

1.5 Propositions / Hypothesis

The following propositions / hypothesis guided the research:

 Social service constraints are the motivation of inhabitants’ continual stay in flood prone
areas.
 The main cause of flooding in the floodplains in the Tamale Metropolis is natural.
 Annual flooding of communities in the Tamale Metropolis along the floodplains is
caused by unplanned human settlements.
 Local climatic change is responsible for intense rainfall that causes flooding along the
floodplains in the Tamale Metropolis.

1.6 Justification for the Study

A lot of researches on flooding have been conducted in other parts of the country providing vast
information for town and country planning. However, more research needs to be conducted
particularly in the TaMA to bring to bear the causes and the impacts of flooding on the social
service delivery of the people. This research is an applied urban geographic research that
provides reliable information on the causes and impacts of flooding in urban areas. This would
facilitate urban planning in the city of Tamale.

In recent years, talk of climate change has taken centre stage in a lot of global conferences.
Scientists have warned against the extreme weather conditions that will accompany climate
change with the resultant effect of the rise in global temperatures. A research of this nature will
provide important awareness of the real challenges of flooding especially in cities, and the need
to find lasting solutions instead of ad hoc measures to solve the problem particularly with the
challenges of climate change looming. The Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy II (GPRS

17
II) indicates the vital role that the natural and built environments play in achieving long-term
growth and development. It draws attention to the need therefore for amenable, efficient, safe
and healthy built environments for growth and development. Finding lasting solutions to the
recurrent hazard of flooding is very necessary in achieving such an appropriate environment to
ensure national growth and development. Information provided in this research could also serve
as a basis for further research into the problem of flooding in Tamale and other parts of the
country.

18
 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Types and causes of flooding

Over the years, flooding has become a major problem in the world. There is no doubt that
globally, floods are on the ascendency. Over the past six or seven decades, the economic losses
and the number of people who have been affected by floods have increased more rapidly (UNEP,
2007). Globally, about 200 million people were affected by floods in the 1990s with about US$
63 billion lost in terms of market value of damaged properties (World Disaster Report, 2002). In
terms of human life loss, between 1980 and 2000, floods caused about 180 deaths a day
worldwide (Peduzzi and Ruiz, 2005). Currently, about 75% of the world’s population live in
areas at least once affected by these disasters (Peduzzi and Ruiz, 2005).

The physical, social and economic losses caused by these disasters are particularly harsh for
developing countries since they have a long term effect on their development process (UNEP,
2007). Sustainable development and disaster reduction and prevention are therefore essential
preconditions for each other. Effective disaster management can fully benefit humanity because
it will impact on the environment, serve as a human intervention for sustainable development
and improve food security (Pandey Okazaki 2005). Furthermore, current development studies
prove that assistance in times of a disaster can serve as a tool for national development. This is
exemplified in countries such as Botswana and Zambia in which emergency relief interventions
became stepping stones for long term development projects (Buchanan-Smith and Maxwell,
1994)

The phenomenon of urban floods is increasingly becoming a great concern for both developed
and developing nations due to the seeming increase in the occurrence. Fuelled by climate change
and rapid urbanization it causes severe damage to housing and household assets, utility works,
income losses in trade and industries, interruption to transport systems as well as disease
outbreaks and even death. The damages caused by urban floods are on the increase and it is
important to understand its causes and impacts as well as the influence different types of
flooding have on urban areas. Urban floods usually occur as a result of a complex amalgam of
causes. The presence of buildings in waterways coupled with the compacting of the soil surface

19
reduces the rate of infiltration and further worsens the occurrence of floods in urban areas. Urban
areas can be flooded by rivers, coastal floods, pluvial, groundwater floods and artificial system
failures. In cities and towns, areas of open soil are very limited and all precipitation and other
flows have to be carried away by surface runoff or through drainage systems, which are usually
artificial and constrained by the competing demands on urban land. High intensity rainfall can
cause flooding when drainage systems do not have the necessary capacity to cope with flows.
Sometimes the water enters the sewage system in one place and resurfaces in others. This type of
flood occurs fairly often in Europe, for instance the floods that affected parts of England in the
summer of 2007 (Abhas et al., 2011).

In many developing countries such as Ghana, urban floods are caused by the effects of deficient
or improper land use planning. Many urban areas facing the challenges of increased urbanization
coupled with increasing populations, and high demands for land do not properly enforce
legislations aimed at militating against floods. While there are existing laws and regulations to
control the construction of new infrastructure and the variety of building types, they are often not
enforced properly owing to economic or political factors, or capacity or resource constraints.
This leads to obstruction in the natural course of water, which results in floods. The key to
reducing the effects of floods and in reducing the occurrence of floods is in awareness creation
amongst residents and proper cooperation between decision makers, risk management authorities
and the public in the process of flood risk management.

Understanding flood risk requires knowledge of the different types of floods, their probabilities
of occurrence, how they can be modelled and mapped, what the required data are for producing
hazard maps and the possible data sources for these. A detailed understanding of the flood hazard
relevant to different localities is also crucial in implementing appropriate flood risk reduction
measures such as development planning, forecasting, and early warning systems. As flood risk
evolves over time it also becomes relevant to explore how these decisions will need to change in
the light of predictable climate changes. Information about the existing models used to account
for climate change at different scales and the uncertainties regarding those results are both
important issues which need to be accommodated in any decision making process (Abhas et al.,
2011).

20
Preventing and managing flood situations effectively ensuring sustainable regional development
have been a source for major concern of academics, engineers, planners, decision-makers and
different levels of government. In making plans and decisions about disaster prevention and
management, more considerations ought to be paid to the spatial features of floods. Most natural
hazards according to Curtis and Mills (2010) have patterns that leave spatial footprints and
within these patterns are human places, cultures and interactions. There is a clear nexus between
environmental degradation and floods in many regions of the world and those countries that
suffer most from floods are the same ones in which environmental degradation is proceeding
most rapidly (Kötter, 2003). In addition, it is the poor people that are more vulnerable to floods.
Continuous and increasing occurrence of devastating flood events such as urban flooding often
poses substantive danger to the achievement of both sustainable development and poverty-
reduction initiatives (UN-ISDR, 2009). The issue of disaster reduction and risk management is
rapidly being adopted into the policy agenda of affected governments as well as multilateral and
bilateral agencies and NGOs. The International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) through
Resolution 54/219 of the UN General Assembly aim to mobilize Governments, UN agencies,
regional bodies, private sector and civil society to unite efforts in building resilient societies by
developing a culture of prevention and preparedness (Abhas et al., 2011).

Descriptions and categorizations of floods vary and are based on a combination of sources,
causes and impacts. Based on such combinations, floods can be generally characterized into river
(fluvial) floods, overland (pluvial) floods, coastal floods, groundwater floods or the failure of
artificial water systems. Based on the speed of onset of flooding, floods are often described as
flash floods, urban floods, semi-permanent floods and slow rise floods (Abhas et al., 2011). All
these types can have severe impacts on urban areas and thus be categorized as urban floods. It is
important to understand both the cause and speed of onset of each type to understand their
possible effects on urban areas and how to mitigate their impacts as it is illustrated in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1: Types and causes of floods

Causes
Types of flooding Naturally Human induced Onset time Duration
occurring

21
Pluvial and Convective Varies
overland flood thunderstorms, Land use Varies depending
severe rainfall, changes, upon prior
breakage of Urbanization. conditions
ice jam, Increase in
glacial surface runoff
lake burst,
earthquakes
resulting in
landslides
Coastal Earthquakes Development of Varies but
(Tsunami, Submarine coastal zones usually fairly Varies but
storm surge) flood volcanic Destruction of rapid usually fairly
eruptions Coastal natural rapid
Subsidence, flora
Coastal (e.g., mangrove)
erosion
Groundwater flood High water Development in Usually slow Longer
table level low-lying areas; duration
combined with interference with
heavy rainfall natural aquifers
Embedded
Effect
Flash flood Can be caused Catastrophic Rapid Usually
by river, failure of water short often
pluvial retaining just a few
or coastal structures hours
systems; Inadequate
convective drainage
thunderstorms; infrastructure
GLOFs

22
Semi-permanent Sea level Drainage Usually slow Long
Flooding rise, land overload, duration or
subsidence failure of permanent
systems,
inappropriate
urban
development,
Poor
groundwater
Management
Source; Abhas et al., (2011)

2.1.1 Pluvial or overland floods

Pluvial floods also known as overland floods are caused by rainfall or snowmelt that is not
absorbed into the land and flows over land and through urban areas before it reaches drainage
systems or watercourses. This kind of flooding often occurs in urban areas, is the lack of
permeability of the land surface means that rainfall cannot be absorbed rapidly enough, flooding
results. Pluvial floods are often caused by localized summer storms or by weather conditions
related to unusually large low pressure areas (Abhas et al., 2011). Characteristically, the rain
overwhelms the drainage systems, where they exist, and flows over land towards lower-lying
areas. These types of floods can affect a large area for a prolonged period of time. The 2007
floods in the Hull area in the UK were the result of prolonged rainfall onto previously saturated
terrain which overwhelmed the drainage system and caused overland flooding in areas of the city
outside the fluvial floodplain. Pluvial floods may also occur regularly in some urban areas,
particularly in tropical climates, draining away quickly but happening very frequently, even
daily, during the rainy season (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.1.2 River or fluvial floods

River or fluvial floods occur when the surface water runoff exceeds the capacity of natural or
artificial channels to accommodate the flow. The excess water overflows the banks of the
watercourse and spills out into adjacent, low-lying floodplain areas. Typically, a river such as the

23
Mississippi in the United States or the Nile in North Africa floods some portion of its
floodplains. It may inundate a larger area of its floodplains less frequently, for instance once in
twenty years, and reaches a significant depth only once in one hundred years on average (Pittock
and Xu 2011). The flow in the watercourse and the elevation it reaches depend on natural factors
such as the amount and timing of rainfall, as well as human factors such as the presence of
confining embankments (also known as levees or dikes). River floods can be slow, for example
due to sustained rainfall, or fast, for instance as a result of rapid snowmelt. Floods can be caused
by heavy rains from monsoons, hurricanes or tropical depressions. They can also be related to
drainage obstructions due to landslides, ice or debris that can cause floods upstream from the
obstruction (Pittock and Xu 2011).

2.1.3 Coastal floods

Coastal floods arise from incursion by the ocean or by sea water. They differ from cyclic high
tides in that they result from an unexpected relative increase in sea level caused by storms or a
tsunami (sometimes referred to as a tidal wave) caused by seismic activities. In the case of a
storm or hurricane, a combination of strong winds that causes the surface water to pile up and the
suction effects of low pressure inside the storm, creates a dome of water. If this approaches a
coastal area, the dome may be forced towards the land, the increasing sea floor level typically
found in inshore waters causes the body of water to rise, and creating a wave that inundates the
coastal zones. The storm surge usually causes the sea level to rise for a relatively short period of
time of four to eight hours, but in some areas it might take much longer to recede to pre-storm
levels. Coastal floods caused by tsunamis are less frequent than storm surges, but can also cause
huge losses in low-lying coastal areas. The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was caused by one of
the strongest earthquakes ever recorded and affected the coasts around the ocean rim, killing
hundreds of thousands of people in fourteen countries (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.1.4 Groundwater floods

Water levels under the ground rise during the winter or rainy season and fall again during the
summer or dry season. Groundwater flooding occurs when the water table level of the underlying
aquifer in a particular zone rises until it reaches the surface level. This tends to occur after long
periods of sustained high rainfall, when rising water levels may cause flooding in normally dry

24
land, as well as reactivate flows in, which are streams that only flow for part of the year. This can
become a problem, especially during the rainy season when these non-perennial streams join the
perennial watercourses. This can result in an overwhelming quantity of water within an urban
area. Groundwater flooding is more likely to occur in low lying areas underlain by permeable
rocks where such an area has been developed, the effect of groundwater flooding can be very
costly (Abhas et al., 2011).

Groundwater flooding can also occur when an aquifer previously used for water supply ceases to
be used, if less water is being pumped out from beneath a developed area the water table will rise
in response. An example of this occurred in Buenos Aires, when pollution of groundwater led to
a cessation of pumping. Drinking water was imported instead. The resulting water table rise
caused flooded basements and sewage surcharge, which is a greater volume of combined water
and sewage than the system is designed to convey (Foster et al 2002). Since groundwater usually
responds slowly compared to rivers, groundwater flooding might take weeks or months to
dissipate. It is also more difficult to prevent than surface flooding, though in some areas water
pumps can be installed to lower the water table. Flooding can also therefore occur in the event of
the failure of pumping systems and may underlie the phenomenon of semi-permanent flooding.
In many cases groundwater and surface flooding are difficult to distinguish. Increased infiltration
and a rise in the water table may result in more water flowing into rivers which in turn are more
likely to overtop their banks. A rise in the water table during periods of higher than normal
rainfall may also mean that land drainage networks, such as storm sewers, cannot function
properly if groundwater is able to flow into them underground. Surface water cannot then escape
and this causes flooding (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.1.5 Flash Floods

“Flash flood” is a term widely used by flood experts and the general population. The US
National Weather Service defines a flash flood as “A rapid and extreme flow of high water into a
normally dry area, or a rapid rise in a stream or creek above a predetermined flood level,
beginning within six hours of the causative event (e.g., intense rainfall, dam failure, ice jam).
However, the actual time threshold may vary in different parts of the country. On-going flooding
can intensify to flash flooding in cases where intense rainfall results in a rapid surge of rising

25
flood waters”. Flash floods are also characterized by a rapid rise in water, high velocities, and
large amounts of debris. Major factors in flash flooding are the intensity and duration of rainfall
and the steepness of watershed and stream gradients. Flash flooding occurs in countries, most
commonly in steeply sloping valleys in mountainous areas, but can also occur along small
waterways in urban environments. Dam failure, release of ice jams, and collapse of debris dams
also can cause flash floods.

The damages caused by flash floods can be more severe than ordinary riverine floods because of
the speed with which flooding occurs (possibly hindering evacuation or protection of property),
the high velocity of water, and the debris load. Channel velocities of 2.74m/s, typically realized
in flash floods, can move a 40.82 kg rock and major flash floods like the one that occurred in the
Big Thompson Canyon in Colorado in 1976, where velocities exceeded 30 feet per second,
moved boulders weighing 250 tons (Abhas et al., 2011). The density of water enables it to pack a
destructive punch. Water moving at 10 miles per hour exerts the same pressure on a structure as
wind gusts at 270 miles per hour (USA Today, 2005). Sudden destruction of structures and
washout of access roads may result in loss of life. A high percentage of flood related deaths
result from motorists underestimating the depth and velocity of flood waters and attempting to
cross swollen streams.

2.1.6 Failure of artificial systems

Human-made systems which contain water have the potential to fail, and the resulting escape of
water can cause flooding. Examples of this include burst water mains or drainage pipes, as well
as failures of pumping systems, dams or breaches in flood defences. This type of flooding is not
only confined to locations usually considered at risk of flooding, although low-lying areas and
areas behind engineered defences are at greater risk. Often the onset will be rapid, as failure of a
system will lead to an escape of water at high pressure and velocity. Dam failure for example,
may be devastating as the volume and speed of water is typically large. Failure of embankments
levees or dikes also has the potential to cause devastating floods, which may persist for a long
time where the water has few escape routes. Between April and October of 1993 a large flood
affected the US Midwest along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers and their tributaries. Many
levees had been constructed along these rivers to protect residential areas and agricultural land,

26
but many of these failed, contributing to widespread flooding. Fifty lives were lost and the
economic damages were estimated to be US$15 billion (Larson 1993).

2.1.7 Semi-permanent flooding

Semi-permanent flooding may occur where settlements are in the vicinity of failed human-made
structures awaiting repair. In New Orleans USA, for instance, following the failure of levees
damaged by Hurricane Katrina, some residents remained in homes that were standing in water
for over six weeks (Kates et al., 2006). Sea level rise and land subsidence have the potential to
create many more such areas in the future. In some cases urban settlements are built on land
which is flooded regularly and for long periods of time. Often these areas may lie below sea level
or where the water table is close to the surface. This is usually the case where settlements are
informal, unplanned and built on less expensive land due to rapid urban expansion and the
poverty of the inhabitants. A typical scene of flooding is illustrated in Figure 2.1.

Figure 2.1: Stagnant water seven months after the 2010 floods in Baguida, Lome.
Source: (Abhas et al., 2011).

27
2.2 Probability of flooding
A sound understanding of the likelihood of occurrence of a flood hazard is a fundamental step in
dealing with flood risk. Risk from flooding can be conceptualized into four stages as in Figure
2.2.

Pathway Consequence

-Rainfall – Building – Damage

-Coastal Surge -River – Infrastructure – Disruption
-Snowmelt – Overland – Ecosystem – Loss
– Wave
-… Source -…Receptor – ...
–…

Figure 2.2 conceptualized stages of flood risk.

Source: (Abhas et al., 2011).

This model breaks down the process of flooding into the identification of a source of the flood
water, the pathway which is taken by it, and the receptor of the flooding, which is the human
settlement, building, field or other structure or environment that is exposed to the consequences.
Flood hazard encompasses the first two of these steps, the source of flood water and the pathway
by which it has the potential to damage any receptor in its path. To fully evaluate risk, the degree
of exposure and the nature of exposed receptors and their potential to sustain or resist damage
also need to be considered. This section deals only with the hazard, focusing on its nature, source
and pathway, together with the probability of an event (Abhas et al., 2011).

Probability in itself can be a difficult concept to translate from the purely scientific generation of
hydro-meteorological models into a description of hazard that lay people can comprehend and
decision makers can use to evaluate their real options. This section explains different methods of
calculating the probability of occurrence of flooding and clarifies some of the concepts of hazard
and their communication. It is important to distinguish between the probabilities of occurrence of
weather event and the probability of occurrence of a flood event. Flooding is primarily driven by
weather events which are hard to predict due to what is termed their chaotic nature. In other
words, despite the great advances in weather forecasting, it cannot be determined with certainty

28
when and where rain will fall or storms will form. This means that it is impossible to know
exactly when and where a flood will occur in the future, nor how high (either in water level or
discharge) the next flood will be. Hazard predictions are commonly given in terms of
probabilities, computed using historical data for the area of interest. This section now describes
the use of frequency analysis and hydrological modelling in the estimation of flood probability,
through to providing and communicating flood hazard forecasts (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.2.1 Probability and occurrence of floods

Flood forecasts for a natural drainage area or a city are usually obtained by analysing the past
occurrence of flooding events, determining their recurrence intervals, and then using this
information to extrapolate to future probabilities. This common approach is described below in
simplified form for fluvial flooding. The probability of occurrence for pluvial, groundwater,
flash, and semi-permanent floods is much more difficult to estimate, even if historical data is
available. This is due to the fact that the causes of these types of floods are, as seen above, a
combination of a meteorological event such as heavy rainfall and other factors such as
insufficient drainage capacity, mismanagement of key infrastructure and other human factors. In
the case of coastal floods caused by seismic activities, predicting their probability is as difficult
as predicting the occurrence of an earthquake. For coastal floods caused by storms or hurricanes,
their probability of occurrence can, in principle, be computed using historical data or numerical
simulations of key variables such as wind speed, sea level, river flow and rainfall (Abhas et al.,
2011).

2.2.2 Recurrence interval

The recurrence interval or return period is defined as the average time between events of a given
magnitude assuming that different events are random. The recurrence interval or return period of
floods of different heights varies from catchment to catchment, depending on various factors
such as the climate of the region, the width of the floodplain and the size of the channel. In a dry
climate the recurrence interval of a three meter high flood might be much longer than in a region
that gets regular heavy rainfall. Therefore the recurrence interval is specific to a particular river
catchment. Since only the annual maximum discharge is considered, the amount of data available
to perform the return period calculation can be very limited in some cases (Abhas et al., 2011).

29
In Europe and Asia, partial records extending over centuries may be found as for instance in the
case of sea floods in the Netherlands. In other places data may be scarce and records are rarely
longer than for 50 years. This poses an important limitation to the calculation of recurrence
intervals which must be taken into account when evaluating and communicating uncertainties in
flood probability estimations. Once the recurrence intervals are determined based on the
historical record, an assumption about the flood frequency distribution has to be made in order to
extrapolate or interpolate the events that have not been recorded historically. To achieve this, an
assumption about the distribution of flood frequency has to be made. In this way the recurrence
interval for any discharge (and not just those present in the observational record) can be inferred
(Abhas et al., 2011).

2.2.3 Flood probability

The recurrence interval, as discussed above, refers to the past occurrence of floods, whilst flood
probability refers to the future likelihood events. The two concepts are related because the
recurrence interval of past events is usually used to estimate the probability of occurrence of a
future event. For any discharge, or alternatively, any recurrence period, the probability of
occurrence (p) is the inverse of the return period (t),
…………………………………….…………Eqn 2.1

Using the relationship between return period (t) and flood probability (P), it is clear that a flood
discharge that has a 100 year recurrence interval has a 1 % chance of occurring (or being
exceeded) in a given year. The term ‘one hundred year flood’ has often been used in relation to
floods with a 100 year recurrence interval (Defra, 2010; Dinicola, 1996). This can be
misunderstood, as a 100 year flood does not have a 100 % chance of occurring within a 100 year
period. The probability of a 100 year flood not occurring in any of the next 100 years is 0.99.

2.3 Flood hazard assessment

The concept of hazard is the potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity
that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or
environmental degradation (UNISDR, 2004). Flood hazard maps are important tools for
understanding the hazard situation in an area. Hazard maps are important for planning
development activities in an area and can be used as supplementary decision making tools. They

30
should therefore be easy to interpret: the aim should be the generation of simple hazard maps
which can be read and understood by both technical and non-technical personalities. There is,
therefore, a need to generate maps based on user specific requirements, whether for individual or
institutional purposes. Flood hazard maps are characterized by type of flooding, depth, velocity
and extent of water flow, and direction of flooding. They can be prepared based on specified
flood frequencies or return periods, for example, 1:10 years, 1:25 years, 1:100 years, or to more
extreme events such as the 1:1000 year return period for different scales (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.4 Probability of flood into hazard estimation

Flood hazard is determined by the conjunction of climatic and non-climatic factors that can
potentially cause a flood: the magnitude of a fluvial flood will depend on physical factors such as
intensity, volume and timing of precipitation. The antecedent conditions of the river and its
drainage basin (such as the presence of snow and ice, soil type and whether this is saturated or
unsaturated) will also have an impact on the development of the event, as will human-made
factors such as the existence of dykes, dams and reservoirs, or the loss of permeability caused by
urban expansion into floodplains.

Flood hazard is usually estimated in terms of a rainfall event or ‘design flood’ such as the 100
year flood. The estimation of flood probability or hazard combines statistics, climatology,
meteorology, hydrology, hydraulic engineering, and geography. The standard approach depends
on the assumption that the flow data is sufficient to compute the design flood using statistical
methods. In places where these data are not available because there are no gauges, or are of poor
quality, other approaches are used. Data from a neighbouring watercourse may be interpolated to
the site of interest, or, if precipitation data are available, a design rainfall event can be computed,
and a rainfall runoff model used to estimate river flow. This is then fed into a hydraulic model
that computes the depth and extent of the resulting flood. Finally, this information is combined
with topographic, infrastructure, population and other geographic data in order to compute the
flood hazard. Table 2.2 illustrates the range of model types used; the ‘generation’ denotes the
level of sophistication inherent in the model, progressing from ‘first generation’ models
including a number of simplified assumptions, through to the more advanced generations with
fewer simplifying assumptions (Abhas et al., 2011).

31
Table 2.2 Types of flood models
Type of models Useful in areas Advantages Disadvantages
First Generation Good for estimation Low to medium Does not give good
with 2DH grid of duration of flood, cost, simple results for vast areas
volume propagation, calculation, low or vast floodplains
Useful in compact runtime (minutes
channels to hours)
Second generation Good for broad Medium to high Broad scale
1D/2D and scale modeling, cost, accuracy and application
2D and Finite urban inundation run time (hours requires coarse
element models ,useful for to days), , can grid otherwise the
compound channels get outputs like computational time
percolation and becomes immense,
seepage other than high data demand
depth, velocity
and volume
Third generation Good for showing High cost, accuracy, High run time,
models breaching in 3D and computation high demand for
flood propagation time (days) , data, high cost
in 2D, useful for flow velocity and
local predictions flood boundaries
accurately simulated
Erosion models Predicts final Can be used in Does not include
erosion profile coasts of different wave period
based on wave morphology
height and storm
surge water level
Sheach Model Analytical more Estimation of cross Demands high
versatile shore transport level of data,
rate in different huge dataset
shore zones

32
TIMOR3 and SWAN Process based Detailed morph Not efficient to
model, useful dynamic result calculate initial
for short term response
Source: (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.5 How to prepare a flood hazard map (Riverine)

Production of hazard maps is the first step towards flood risk assessment. Their purpose is to
better understand and communicate flood extent and flood characteristics such as water depths
and velocity. Multiple stakeholders such as city managers, urban planners, emergency responders
and the community at risk can use hazard maps in planning long term flood risk mitigation
measures and the appropriate actions to be taken in an emergency.

For accurate estimation of flood hazard, selection of appropriate data, type of model,
schematization, proper parameterization, calibration and validation of results are all important
steps. A step by step process for achieving this is outlined below. This incorporates the factors to
be considered at each stage.

2.5.1 Calculation of return period of flooding

The annual maximum flood series is the maximum volume flow rate passing a particular location
(typically a gauging station) during a storm event. This can be measured in ft3/sec, m3/sec, or
acre feet/hr and is calculated using the following formula:

Tr = (N + 1)/ M………………………………………Eqn 2.1

Where Tr = Return Period of flooding; N= Peak annual discharge; and M = Rank, according to
order of highest flow.

Where a number of tributaries exist within the catchment of interest, methods of gauging flows
on each watercourse may be necessary. Output from the return period calculations will enable
users to understand the ‘exceedance probability’ of given flood events. If actual annual
maximum discharge data is unavailable then approximation will be needed. But it must be
recognized that this may lead to uncertainties within the model and thus in the end product
(Abhas et al., 2011).

33
2.5.2 Model result validation

Validation of results by means of surveying, also known as ‘ground truthing’ of the model, is
extremely important to ascertain the quality of the model output. Additional validation, using
actual event data, provides another way of testing how appropriately the hazard model has
performed. Both the above checking processes are required in order to improve the precision of
the model outputs and thereby the usefulness of the final map product.

2.5.3 Monitoring and regular updating of maps

Typically, for public access purposes, general maps with limited information are produced using
GIS software, showing only the flood extent and perhaps protection measures where these exist.
For use by local authorities for decision making more detailed information will be required, such
as municipality level maps with real estate data. For professional bodies, maps with still more
detailed supplementary data can be generated, going down to individual household plot level if
required (Abhas et al., 2011).

Flood hazard maps must be updated regularly with both field information (for example, major
building developments or road construction that significantly alter the terrain) as well as other
relevant data, such as any changes in the peak recorded flows from gauging stations following
extreme events. Monitoring of the hazard map’s performance in use is also required (for
example, where data from actual events following map production are found to exceed the
modelled predictions). Known uncertainties in the model need to be incorporated into the
decision making processes of the local authorities; revisions to the maps following any
amendments to input data will also be required. A process to ensure that the superseded copies
are taken out of use is further needed, such that future decisions are made on the basis of the
updated information (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.6 Accounting for climate change and sea level rise

Climate change is likely to have implications for today’s urban flood risk management decisions,
but is one of many drivers that must be considered (e.g. urbanization, aging infrastructure, and
population growth). Many decisions made today regarding flood risk management will have
ramifications well into the future. Failure to adequately treat climate change in decision making

34
today could lead to future unnecessary costs, wasted investments and risks to life. Decision
makers therefore require long term projections of risk, as well as detailed hazard maps of current
flood risk. The idea that climate change will cause huge changes in risk and therefore render
current flood risk management practice obsolete in the future is widespread and justified in some
cases. This makes it highly problematic for governments and individuals to make confident
decisions and to critically assess their investments in risk management. Long-term infrastructure
is an area where planning decisions are likely to be sensitive to assumptions about future climate
conditions. This can lead to indecision, delay in investment and higher damages from flood
events in the short term. It is, therefore, crucially important to explore the implications of climate
change for future flood hazard and to look for ways to build those implications into decision
making processes (Abhas et al., 2011).

There exists a broad consensus that flood risk is already changing at a significant rate, and that
the rate of change might intensify in the future (Pall et al. 2011). A variety of climatic and non-
climatic variables influence flood processes. Some of the climatic variables that flood magnitudes
depend upon are; precipitation, intensity, timing, duration, phase (rain or snow) and spatial
distribution. In the case of floods caused by sudden snowmelt, temperature and wind speed are
also key factors. In this section we focus on the climatic drivers of floods and briefly discuss their
observed and projected changes.

2.7 Potential impacts of climate change on cities

Around half of the world’s population now lives in urban areas and this figure is projected to
reach 60 % by 2030. Urban population and infrastructure is increasingly at risk to some of the
possible negative impacts of climate change. There is potential for increased flood risk from:

 Increased precipitation
 Drought leading to land subsidence
 Rising sea levels
 Rapid snowmelt
Urban centres located predominantly in low-lying coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to sea
level rise, storm surge and heat waves, all of which are likely to worsen due to climate change. In
2005, 13 out of the 20 most populated cities in the world were port cities (Nicholls et al., 2007a).

35
Deltas are also widely recognized to be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,
particularly sea level rise and changes in runoff. Most deltas are undergoing natural subsidence
that exacerbates the effects of sea level rise. This is compounded with some human actions, such
as water extraction and diversion, as well as declining sediment input as a consequence of
entrapment in dams. It is estimated that nearly 300 million people inhabit a sample of 40 deltas
globally. The average population density is 500 people per square kilometer, with the largest
population in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta and the highest density in the Nile Delta. Due to
these high population densities, many people are exposed to the impacts of river floods, storm
surges and erosion. Modeling studies indicate that much of the population of these 40 deltas will
continue to be at risk primarily through coastal erosion and land loss, but also through
accelerated rates of sea level rise (Nicholls, et al., 2007b).

Estimation of impacts of sea level rise, increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns on
cities, and the development of robust adaptation pathways, is complicated by a combination of
the characteristics of the infrastructure to be protected and the uncertainty of local and regional
climate projections. Adaptation measures have to take into account the fixed or long term life
span of urban infrastructure already in place, and the long lead times for the planning of
replacements. Although individual extreme weather events cannot be attributed to climate
change, recent studies have shown that anthropogenic climate change can increase the chance of
some of those events happening (Pall et al, 2011; Min et al., 2011; Stott et al., 2004). A recent
IPCC special report on managing the risks of extreme weather events and disasters concludes the
frequency of heavy precipitation, daily temperature extremes, intensity of tropical cyclones,
droughts, and sea level will be increased (IPCC, 2011).

Analysis of specific extreme events can serve to illustrate their possible impacts where they
become more frequent or intense in the future. One well-known example is that of Hurricane
Katrina which made landfall in coastal Louisiana in August 2005. One result of the hurricane
was the loss of 388 square kilometres of coastal wetlands, levees and islands that flank New
Orleans in the Mississippi River delta plain. As these areas collectively act as the first natural
defence against storm surge, this attribute was also lost. Over 1,800 people died and the
economic losses totalled more than US$100 billion. Roughly 300,000 homes, and over 1,000
historical and cultural sites, were destroyed along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, whilst

36
the loss of oil production and refinery capacity helped to raise global oil prices in the short term
(Nicholls et al., 2007a).

2.8 Climate change and variability

2.8.1 Observed changes

At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, some significant changes in the climate system
have already been observed: The warming rate as demonstrated by global mean surface
temperature over the last 50 years (0.13 ºC ± 0.03 ºC per decade) is almost double that over the
100 years from 1906 to 2005 (0.07 ºC ± 0.02 ºC per decade). Moreover, the 9 warmest years on
record have all occurred since 1998 (Trenberth et al, 2007). At the end of the melt season in
September 2010, the ice extent in the Arctic Sea was the third smallest on the satellite record
after 2007 and 2009. Global mean sea level is rising faster than at any other time in the past
3,000 years, at approximately 3.4 millimetres per year in the period from 1993 to 2008 (WMO,
2009).

Precipitation over land generally increased during the 20th Century at higher latitudes, especially
from 30ºN to 85ºN, but it has decreased in the past 30 to 40 years in the more southerly latitudes
between 10º N and 30º N. There was an increase of precipitation in this zone from around 1900
until the 1950s, but this declined after about 1970. Global averaged precipitation does not show
any significant trend in the period 1951-2005, with significant discrepancies between different
data sets, and large decadal variability. Observed changes in weather extremes are all consistent
with a warming climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth
Assessment Report (Solomon et al., 2007) stated that increases in heavy precipitation over the
mid-latitudes have been observed since 1950. This includes places where mean precipitation
amounts are not increasing. Since 1970, large increases in the number and proportion of strong
hurricanes globally have also been recorded, even though the total number of cyclone and
cyclone days decreased slightly. The extent of regions affected by drought has also increased due
to a marginal decrease of precipitation over land, with a simultaneous increase in evaporation
due to higher temperatures. Increases in precipitation intensity and other observed climate
changes during the last three decades, such as sea level rise, suggest that robust future
projections for flood management systems cannot be based on the traditional assumption that

37
past hydrological experience provides a comprehensive guide to future conditions (Bates et al,
2008). In the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC, 2007), the conclusion drawn is that it is
likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most areas during the
late 20th Century, and that it is more likely than not that there has been a human contribution to
this trend (Solomon et al. 2007). It is expected that global warming will affect both atmospheric
and ocean circulation in such a way that many aspects of the global water cycle will change.

2.8.2 Projected changes

The IPCC has identified a range of possible futures for the planet, depending on the levels of
greenhouse gas emissions that may be expected. These are defined in the Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC, 2007). There are four groups of scenarios, termed
‘families’, which range from A1, covering the highest emissions envisaged, through A2 and B1,
to the lowest emissions grouping, B2. Within each of the family groups, there are multiple
scenarios depending upon the levels of individual variables chosen: for example, the A1 family
encompasses scenarios ‘A1T’ and ‘A1F1’, amongst others. The range of global mean
temperatures projected by several of these scenarios suggests marginally higher temperatures
even if emissions were held at their 2000 values. This continued rise further suggests that even if
emissions were drastically reduced now, at least in the short term the world will become warmer
(IPCC, 2007) by about 0.5 degrees. The projection of temperature rise for the worst case scenario
sees a potential six degree warming by 2100.

Projections of global mean temperature change and rainfall for the highest and the lowest
emissions scenario overlap until the 2020s. For the 2020s, changes in global mean precipitation
are masked by its natural variability in the short term. The picture is different for longer term
projections, when the emissions path does matter (Solomon et al., 2007). Changes in global
mean precipitation become distinguishable from its natural variability, and some robust patterns
emerge, such as an increase in the tropical precipitation maxima, a decrease in the subtropics and
increases at high latitudes. However, due to larger uncertainties in the simulation of precipitation,
the confidence in precipitation response to greenhouse gas increases is much lower than the
confidence in simulated temperature response (Stone, 2008).

38
Clearly, regional changes can be larger or smaller than global averages and, in general, the
smaller the scale the less consistent the picture when viewed across the ensemble of global
climate model (GCM) projections, particularly for some climate variables. The Regional Climate
Projections chapter of the IPCC’s AR4 report (Christensen et al., 2007), presents projections at
continental scales, and then goes down to sub-continental scales in the form of so-called Giorgi
regions: for example, Africa is subdivided into Western, Eastern, Southern and Sahara regions.
One key feature of these regions is that they are typically greater than a thousand kilometres
square and therefore much larger than the spatial scales relevant for most impact studies.

The greatest amount of warming is expected, and has been observed, over the land masses. In
particular, it is expected that significant warming will occur at higher latitudes. In spite of the
fact that these are regions with the largest uncertainties in their projections, and by the 2020s
some GCMs project very small (or even slightly negative) temperature changes (Stone, 2008).
Precipitation changes are less consistent than temperature changes, partly because precipitation is
much more variable than temperature, and partly because it does not respond as directly to
increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases’ as temperature does. The changes in annual
means projected for the 2020s indicate that the largest potential changes and simultaneously the
largest uncertainties occur in areas where precipitation is low, such as deserts and Polar Regions.
By the 2080s projections show even greater variability, but some patterns emerge, such as the
fact that precipitation in the Polar Regions is projected to increase. This is related to the fact that
models project a retreat of sea and lake ice, allowing surface waters to evaporate directly (Stone,
2008).

At the regional level, then, the seasonality of changes has to be considered, since clearly changes
in annual averages do not uniquely determine the way in which the frequency or intensity of
extreme weather events might change in the future. In Europe for example, where the annual
mean temperature is likely to increase, it is likely that the greatest warming will occur in winter
in Northern Europe and in summer in the Mediterranean area (Christensen et al., 2007). Levels
of confidence in projections of changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events (in
particular regional statements concerning heat waves, heavy precipitation and drought) can be
estimated using different sources of information, including observational data and model
simulations. Extreme rainfall events, for example, are expected to be unrelated to changes in

39
average rainfall. Average rainfall amount depends on the vertical temperature gradient of the
atmosphere which, in turn, depends on how quickly the top of the atmosphere can radiate energy
into space; this is expected to change only slightly with changes in carbon dioxide
concentrations. On the other hand, extreme precipitation depends on how much water the air can
hold, which increases exponentially with temperature. Thus it is reasonable to expect that in a
warmer climate, short extreme rainfall events could become more intense and frequent, even in
areas that become drier on average. Some studies have found that in regions that are relatively
wet already, extreme precipitation will increase, while areas that are already dry are projected to
become even drier, due to longer dry spells (Abhas et al., 2011).

Projections of extreme events in the tropics are uncertain, due in part to the difficulty in
projecting the distribution of tropical cyclones using current climate models with too coarse a
spatial resolution, but also due to the large uncertainties in observational cyclone datasets for the
20th Century. For instance, some studies suggest that the frequency of strong tropical cyclones
has increased globally in recent decades in association with increases in sea surface
temperatures. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that, as the oceans warm, there is
more energy available to be converted to tropical cyclone wind. However, the reliability of
estimating trends from observational data sets has been questioned based on the argument that
improved satellite coverage, new analysis methods, and operational changes in the tropical
cyclone warning centres have contributed to discontinuities in the data sets and more frequent
identification of extreme tropical cyclones after 1990 (Füssel, 2009).

Global mean sea level has been rising; there is high confidence that the rate of rise has increased
between the mid-19th and the mid-20th centuries. However, even though the average rate was
1.7 ± 0.5 millimetres per year for the 20th Century, the data shows large decadal and inter-
decadal variability and the spatial distribution of changes is highly non-uniform. For instance,
over the period 1993 to 2003, while the average rate of increase was 3.1 ± 0.7 millimetres per
year, rates in some regions were larger while in some other regions sea levels fell (Solomon et al.
2007). Factors that contribute to long term sea level change are thermal expansion of the oceans,
mass loss from glaciers and ice caps and mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
The present understanding of some important effects driving sea level rise is too limited.
Consequently the IPCC AR4 (Solomon et al. 2007) does not assess the likelihood, nor provide a

40
best estimate or upper bound, for sea-level rise. Model based projections of global mean sea-
level rise between the late 20th century (1980-1999) and the end of this century (2090-99) fall
within a range of 0.18 to 0.59 meters, based on the spread of GCM results and different SRES
scenarios. These projections do not, however, include the uncertainties noted above (Bates et al.,
2008). Sea level rise during the 21st Century is expected to have large geographical variations
due to, for instance, possible changes in ocean circulation patterns. Even though it is expected
that significant impacts in river deltas and low-lying islands might occur, the range of the
plausible impacts are, therefore, yet to be specified.

2.9 Flood risk management

Flood hazard not only changes due to the natural and human induced variability of the climatic
factors involved, but also due to the dynamics of societal factors. The contribution of the
different drivers is largely unknown. In the short term, rapid economic, social, demographic,
technological and political changes seem more important and immediate than climate change.
Consequently, the effects of climate change on flood hazard should be considered in the context
of other global changes that affect the vulnerability of flood-prone settlements Very importantly,
flood risk management should be a constantly revised and updated process (Merz et al., 2010).

Finally, flood risk is dynamic and the large uncertainties associated with the estimates of future
risk make its management under climate change a process of decision-making under deep
uncertainty. It is necessary to take a robust approach. Some risk management options that
increase the robustness of urban flood risk management investments and decisions to climate
change are so called ‘no-regrets’ measures that reduce the risk independently of the climate
change scenario being realized (for example, measures that reduce current vulnerabilities to
weather and climate, or other non-climatic drivers); options that incorporate flexibility into long-
lived decisions; or options that have significant co-benefits with other areas, like ecosystems-
based flood control (Ranger et al., 2010).

2.10 Urbanization, urban expansion and urban poverty

In the short-term, and for urban settlements in developing countries in particular, the factors
affecting exposure and vulnerability to flooding are increasing rapidly, as urbanization broadly
defined as the transition from rural to largely urban societies puts more people and more assets

41
at risk. Rapidly growing informal settlement areas, often termed slums, in central city and
peripheral suburban or peri-urban locations, are particularly vulnerable to flood impacts.

2.10.1 Urbanization trends

In 2008 for the first time in human history, half of the world’s population lived in urban areas
(UN-HABITAT, 2008). It is estimated that by 2030, 60 % of the world’s population will live in
urban areas and by 2050 this will have risen to 70 % (UN-HABITAT, 2008; WDR, 2010). In the
developing world, 95 % of urban population growth takes place in low quality, overcrowded
housing or in informal settlements, with urbanization rates typically higher in small and medium
sized cities, although this varies from continent to continent (WDR, 2010; WGCCD, 2009;
Parnell et al., 2007).

In East Asia, for example, most of the increase in urban population over the next 15 years is
expected to be in towns and cities with fewer than one million inhabitants (Jha and Brecht,
2011). In addition, a significant percentage of urban growth will be in peripheral areas adjoining
existing major cities. However, it is important to understand that urban areas are not necessarily
cities: Satterthwaite (2011) points out: “Although it is common to see the comment that more
than half the world’s population lives in cities, this is not correct: they live in urban centers, a
high proportion of which are small market towns or service centers that would not be considered
to be cities”.

2.10.2 Defining the ‘urban’

Although the world is becoming more urban in nature, there is no commonly accepted definition
of what is meant by the term ‘urban’. Often, places with paved streets, street lighting, piped
water, drainage and sanitation infrastructure, hospitals, schools, and other public institutions, are
considered as urban areas. Urban centers, however, vary in size from a few thousand inhabitants
to megacities with more than 10 million inhabitants. In addition, urban areas vary with regard to
their spatial form, economic base, local resource availability, and local institutional structure.
Typically, the conception of urban is now seen within the perspective of a rural-urban continuum
spanning, in any given society, villages, small towns, secondary (or medium-sized) cities,
metropolitan areas, and megacities. In addition, significant urbanized agglomerations are

42
emerging, covering entire urban regions or urban corridors which encompass a range of urban
centers of different sizes (Abhas et al., 2011).

There are also significant regional differences, a town of a few thousand people in Africa is often
considered to be an urban centre, whilst in Asia urban areas tend to be agglomerations with far
larger populations. There is even greater variation in the level and speed with which individual
countries and individual cities within regions are expanding (Cohen, 2004). For example, Latin
America is more urbanized than Africa or Asia, and matches Europe or North America with
current urbanization levels of around 70 %. However, urbanization trends in Latin America are
lower than in Asia and Africa, which are expected to experience relatively faster rates of
urbanization over the coming decades. By 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the fastest
urbanizing world region, will have crossed the threshold to be a principally urban region. In the
20 years that follow, Africa’s urban population will rise to 1.3 billion people.

2.10.3 Implications of urbanization

Urban centers concentrate people, enterprises, infrastructures and public institutions, while at the
same time relying on food, freshwater and other resources from areas outside of their boundaries
(Satterthwaite, 2011). Furthermore, urban areas are often located in hazard prone locations such
as low elevation coastal zones, which are at risk from sea level rise, or in other areas at risk from
flooding and extreme weather events (OECD, 2009; WDR, 2010).

Urbanization is accompanied by increasingly larger scale urban spatial expansion as cities and
towns swell and grow outwards in order to accommodate population increases. Urban expansion
alters the natural landscape, land uses and land cover, for example by changing water flows and
increasing impermeable areas, thereby adding to the flood hazard problem (Satterthwaite, 2011).
High levels of urbanization in river flood plains and other areas of catchments might also change
the frequency of occurrence of flooding. In the mid-1970s, when urbanization was just starting to
accelerate, a study by Hollis (1975) showed that the occurrence of small floods might increase up
to 10 times with rapid urbanization, whilst more severe floods, with return periods 100 years or
over, might double in size if 30 % of roads were paved. The changes in land use associated with
urbanization affect soil conditions and the nature of run-off in an area. Increased development of

43
impermeable surfaces leads to enhanced overland flow and reduced infiltration. It also affects the
natural storage of water and causes modification of run–off streams (Wheater and Evans, 2009).

Urban centers also change the local environment by reducing rainfall and increasing night-time
temperatures. Urban micro-climates, especially urban heat islands caused by lack of vegetation,
can modify the hydrology of an area. Heat islands create higher temperatures over cities: for
example, during the summer heat wave of 2003 in the UK, differences of up to 10°C between
city and rural temperatures were measured in the London area (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.10.4 The urban poor

The concentration of people in urban areas increases their vulnerability to natural hazards and
climate change impacts. Vulnerability to flooding is particularly increased where inappropriate,
or inadequately maintained infrastructure, low-quality shelters, and lower resilience of the urban
poor intertwine (World Bank, 2008). The fact that rapid urban expansion typically takes place
without following structured or agreed land use development plans and regulations makes
conditions even more problematic. In addition, as the urban poor are often excluded from the
formal economy, they lack access to adequate basic services and because they cannot afford
housing through the market they are located in densely populated informal slum areas which may
be vulnerable to flooding.

The houses of poor people in these most vulnerable informal settlement areas are typically
constructed with materials and techniques that cannot resist extreme weather or natural disasters
(Parry et al., 2009). Rapid urbanization in low-income and middle-income nations tends to take
place in such relatively high-risk areas, thereby placing an increasing proportion of the
economies and populations of those countries at risk (Bicknell et al., 2009).

2.10.5 Urban challenges

The economies of urban centers vary from simple, small market towns to more complex, large
cities and metropolitan regions serving local, regional, national and global markets. Cities are
usually major economic centers hosting enterprises and industries that create most of the Gross
World Product (GWP) (Kamal-Chaoui and Robert, 2009; Bicknell et al., 2009). However, the
benefits associated with urban centers are not unalloyed. This is mainly because of the existence

44
of negative externalities, including environmental costs such as high carbon intensities, as well
as the high vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters (floods) (Corfee-Morlot et al.,
2009). In addition, urbanization is to an extent responsible for higher concentration of
greenhouse gases (GHGs) in urban areas and cities, causing greater capital costs and
environmental damage (Corfee-Morlot et al. 2009). Rapid urbanization also means that urban
centers will need to invest in infrastructure services given the increase in the demand for these
(Jha and Brecht, 2011).

Urbanization and consequent increases in urban populations, accompanied by urban expansion,

can result in declines in average densities, as built-up areas spread outwards. This can compound
flood risk and weaken urban resilience to flooding. Even though some of this increase is the
natural consequence of urban population growth, urban expansion can also be associated with
inefficient land use and planning policies (World Bank, 2008). However, the need for
accommodating expanding urban populations does require the consumption of more land.
Similarly, higher densities are not always or necessarily a panacea for alleviating urban flood
risk, as they often are coupled to increases in non-permeable surfaces, the occupation of
vulnerable terrains, and levels of congestion which can compromise or even overwhelm the
operation of infrastructure services such as solid waste. Figure 2.3 illustrates the impact of
flooding on an informal settlement.

Figure 2.3: Informal Settlement in Mexico City, Copyright: UN-HABITAT.

Source: World Bank (2008).

45
2.10.6 Opportunities

The unprecedented rate of global urbanization in cities and other urban areas implies that
exposure and vulnerability is increasing, which will cause loss of life and property unless
proactive measures are mainstreamed into urban planning processes (Jha and Brecht, 2011).
Cities themselves are often blamed for social inequalities, the inadequacy of city governments,
authorities and institutions, and environmental degradation (UN-HABITAT, 1996; Dodman,
2009). Nevertheless it should be recognized that cities can contribute towards more sustainable
development, if they are adequately planned, governed and managed. Rapid urbanization
presents the opportunity to do things right first time, by integrating flood risk management
concerns into new settlements as they develop. As Dodman (2009) argues, many of the processes
implicit in urbanization may have a beneficial effect on global environmental change, as
economies of scale and proximity can provide cheaper infrastructure and services. In order for
cities to take advantage of their potentials, however, good governance and urban planning are
prerequisites.

The Working Group on Climate Change and Development (WGCCD, 2009) suggests that urban
authorities in developing countries need to deal with both out-dated infrastructure and urban
expansion if they want to increase resilience in the face of climate change. Moreover
urbanization shifts the balance of prevention from individual measures to collective action
(World Bank and United Nations, 2010). As a consequence, to address the flood risk that cities
and urban areas in low and middle income countries face, a coherent, locally specific and
integrated response to this environmental hazard and risk is needed.

2.11 Direct impacts on primary receptors

This section outlines the direct impacts of flooding on primary receptors including people, the
urban built environment, infrastructure, and family assets. Risks to life and health caused directly
or indirectly by flood water are discussed, with flood related injuries described in the pre-onset,
onset and post-onset phases.

46
2.11.1 People

Floods worldwide pose a range of threats to human life, health and well-being. In 2010, reported
flood disasters killed over 8,000 people directly. While economic losses rise, direct deaths from
flooding may be declining over time as measures to prevent flooding are employed, particularly
in developed countries (Abhas et al., 2011).

Figure 2.4: Reported economic losses and deaths.

Source: (Abhas et al., 2011).

Two-thirds of direct deaths from flood events are caused by drowning and one-third by physical
trauma, heart attack, electrocution, carbon monoxide poisoning or fire (Jonkman and Kelman,
2005). Most deaths occur during a flash flooding event as against the slower riverine events (Du
et al., 2010). In developing countries such as Bangladesh, the majority of flood deaths have been
found to be caused by diarrhoea and other water-borne diseases, or from drowning and snake
bites. In Vietnam, electrocution is the biggest cause of death in the immediate aftermath of
flooding, followed by respiratory diseases, pneumonia and exposure to cold. Diarrhoea-related
deaths are primarily caused by a lack of pure drinking water, improper storage and handling of
drinking water, poor hygiene practices and often total deterioration of sewage and sanitation
facilities which lead to the contamination of drinking water in flood affected areas (Kunii et al.,
2002; Ahern et al., 2005). These deaths can occur during the period following the reported flood
and, therefore, are not necessarily recorded in disaster databases.

47
The most commonly reported flood related injuries are sprains and strains, lacerations,
contusions and abrasions. People may injure themselves as they attempt to escape, either by
objects being carried by fast flowing water or by buildings or other structures collapsing (Du et
al., 2010). Flood related injuries can also happen in the pre-onset phase, as individuals attempt to
remove themselves, their family or valued possessions from the approaching waters (Ahern et
al., 2005). Post-onset injuries are likely to occur when residents return to their homes and
businesses to start the recovery and reconstruction process (WHO, 2002, Few et al., 2004; Ahern
and Kovats 2006). As these injuries are not monitored adequately, it is difficult to quantify the
true burden of ill health due to flood events (Few et al., 2004).

The mental trauma of flooding, caused by witnessing deaths, injuries and destruction of the
home, can result in severe psychological effects in some individuals. Grief and material losses,
as well as physical health problems, can lead to depression or anxiety. Three types of mental
health issue have been noted: common mental health disorders, post-traumatic stress disorders
(PTSD) and suicide (Ahern and Kovats 2006).

In the slums of Nairobi, coping responses to flooding include bailing out of houses to prevent
damage to belongings; placing children on tables and later removing them to nearby unaffected
dwellings; digging trenches around houses before and during floods; constructing temporary
dykes or trenches to divert water away from the house; securing structures with waterproof
recycled materials; relocating to the highest parts of the dwelling; or using sandbags to prevent
the ingress of water. The most vulnerable members of the community can also be those worse
affected: the poor, the elderly and the youngest members of the community will often require
special help and assistance. Research has found that children and the elderly are more likely to
die, particularly from drowning, than are adults (Bartlett, 2008).

2.11.2 Buildings and contents

Buildings and their contents can be directly and indirectly affected by flooding in a range of
ways. In cities and towns, flooding in underground spaces, including subways, basement floors
and utility facilities under the ground, is also typical. Direct impacts are the physical damage
caused to buildings and their contents, whereas indirect effects include the loss of industrial or
business processes. The impact of flooding on housing and households can be devastating. Fast-

48
flowing flood waters are capable of washing away entire buildings and communities. Depending
on their form of construction and characteristics of the flooding, many buildings may survive the
flood but will be damaged quite extensively by the corrosive effect of salinity and damping, and
be in need of substantial repairs and refurbishment (Abhas et al., 2011).

Flood events can have a variety of impacts on businesses, ranging from direct physical impacts
to indirect effects (to supply chains, for example). Damage to premises, equipment and fittings;
loss of stock; reduced customer visits and sales as well as disruption to business activities are
among the common effects experienced by UK businesses (Ingirige and Wedawatta 2011). The
characteristics of flood, including flood depth, duration and contaminants, will influence the
extent of damage caused to a building. The speed of flooding can also determine the extent of the
damage. Flash flooding, for example, can completely destroy properties or cause irreparable
structural damage. In a slow rise flood, on the other hand, static floodwater can damage buildings
in the following ways (Abhas et al., 2011):

 Water soaks into the fabric of the building elements causing them to deteriorate. Water
can soak upwards through building materials through capillary action and in hot
conditions can also cause damage through excess humidity in enclosed spaces.
 Water pressure of standing water causes building elements to fail or structures to collapse
 Water can travel underneath buildings and their foundations, thus lifting or partially
lifting them causing them to float away or to crack. Water can also lift building contents
and they may be damaged or cause damage within a building.
 Chemicals or contaminants in the water can react with building elements or contaminate
them.
 Water can cause failure of electrical systems resulting in secondary damage.
In a flash flood or coastal flood, water which flows around buildings may damage them in the
following additional ways:

 Water that is moving exerts a greater lateral pressure on building elements than static
water. Changing pressure can increase the stress on building elements.
 Moving water will tend to cause scour or erosion, potentially undermining buildings and
causing collapse.
 Debris is carried at higher velocity and can cause severe damage due to collision.

49
  Fires can be caused by the collision of fuel containers within buildings.

Generally speaking, the faster the velocity of the water the greater the damage, but the depth of
floodwater is clearly another important factor in determining the scale of damage. It has been
found that flood depths greater than 600 mm are more likely to result in structural damage to
buildings (USACE, 1988). This relationship is normally demonstrated by a depth damage curve
such as the example in Figure 2.4.

Figure 2.5: Example of a depth damage curve for one story residence with basement.

Source: USACE (1988)

Anticipated flood depth will tend to be a deciding point for the method of flood protection.
Hydrostatic head caused by the weight of water being held above the pressure point will place
stresses on walls and any other vertical elements and will also drive floodwater through walls. If
the flood depth is predicted to be greater than 900 mm, flood proofing is unlikely to be feasible
unless specially constructed methods are used. The consensus of opinion is that the cut-off depth
for wet-proof construction should be 600 mm (USACE, 1988). Flow velocity is presumed to be
an important factor in the causation of flood damage, although hazard models rarely quantify its
impact and its influence is therefore rarely taken into account. Some recent studies which have
examined both water depth and flow velocity have concluded that the latter has a significant
influence on structural damage, for example on roads, but only a minor influence on monetary

50
losses and business interruption (Kreibich et al., 2009). However, it has also been recommended
that if the other impact factor, water depth, is less than two meters then flow velocity alone are
not a suitable consideration for estimating monetary loss in flood damage modeling and
assessment. The materials used for buildings, their drying characteristics and the condition of the
building can also influence the extent of damage caused. Masonry construction, for example, is
able to withstand the impact of flood waters up to a point but, being a porous material; it will
absorb a large volume of water and take considerable time to dry out. Timber construction can
be relatively waterproof but is often less robust. Adobe and soil based construction are more
vulnerable to scour and erosion.

Building quality also has an impact on a structure’s ability to withstand flooding. Flash floods
within an urban environment present particularly high risks with respect to damage to buildings.
As previously noted, many of the larger cities in the world which are at risk of flooding are
characterized by high levels of density and congestion. For example, the city of Mumbai is
extremely overcrowded which constantly threatens the city management system, leading to
overburdens in sewage and wastewater, the dumping of household and commercial garbage in
open landfills and direct discharges to water bodies. Safety standards are also overlooked to fulfil
the demand for space and development of property. As a result of the already existing difficulties
in management, a flood in such cities causes havoc. Flood waters carry with them the debris of
waste but also the treasured belongings of a dense and overcrowded city. The materials from
buildings damaged by floodwater are also swept along. In an overcrowded space this may lead to
an avalanche of further damage. Existing buildings located in flood zones, therefore, represent a
particular risk; in the light of climate change predictions, the adaptation of such buildings to
future flood risk poses a considerable challenge for many countries. Regulations should also be
designed to restrict or prevent new development, although it is possible that new buildings can be
designed to withstand the effects of flooding by appropriate use of materials and flood resilient
measures (Satterthwaite et al., 2007).

Damage caused to public buildings such as hospitals, clinics, educational buildings, and
significant cultural sites such as churches can lead to further indirect impacts: for example, the
disruption to education, which over a long term period can lead to children suffering
academically; similarly, there is likely to be a reduction in the capacity for providing both

51
immediate and longer term health care and support. Release of contaminants poses serious public
health risks for survivors of floods. Flood waters can mix with raw sewage and thus dramatically
increase the incidence of water borne diseases. Although the release of toxic chemicals is diluted
by flood water (causing toxicity levels to decline) the uncontrolled release of various chemicals
some of which may interact with each other poses a considerable risk to public health
infrastructure (Abhas et al., 2011).

The UK based Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure (CPNI) defines national
infrastructure as “those facilities, systems, sites and networks necessary for the functioning of the
country and the delivery of the essential services upon which daily life depends” (CPNI, 2010).
These sectors include finance, food, government, emergency services and health. Particularly at
risk from flooding are: communications; transport (roads and bridges, rail, waterborne
navigation, both inland and sea, air), telecommunications; energy (power generation and
distribution, petrol, gas, diesel and firewood storage and distribution); water supplies, and waste
water collection networks and treatment facilities.

Critical infrastructure is also defined by the CPNI as those elements of national infrastructure, of
which “The loss or compromise would have a major impact on the availability or integrity of
essential services leading to severe economic or social consequences or to loss of life.” Flood
damage to infrastructure represents a considerable concern as it affects the ability of
communities to respond during a flood and to recover after an event. Damage to critical
infrastructure can represent a danger to life: damage to the road network, for instance, can
prevent temporary flood defences from being erected, as well as leading to major disruptions in
the lives of people and businesses. Flooding of airports and railways can similarly create chaos
for major national and international transportation hubs. Impacts on power generation can lead to
temporary and permanent power losses leading to loss of electricity, heating and lighting in some
locations. Table 2.3 show the damage to the electricity sector in Yemen by flooding in 2008.

52
Table 2.3 Damages to electricity services in flood-affected areas of Yemen (million YR).

Hadramout-wadi Hadramout-sahel Mahara

Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural

Damage items Total Damage

(a) Power Plant

Diesel Power 0 50 200 90 220 40 600

Generator

Others 10 10 4 24

(b) Transmission and distribution systems

Transmission 880 300 220 40 140 20 1600

lines

Distribution 300 150 200 20 120 20 810

lines

Transformers 120 30 70 100 40 40 400

(c) 150 50 100 20 20 10 350

Transmission
and distribution
grids

Others 40 10 150 20 10 2 232

Total 150 590 950 290 554 130 4016

Source: (GOY, 2009).

53
Water supplies can become disrupted and contaminated leading to health concerns. Waste water
collection and treatment facilities can become overwhelmed leading to pollution and
contamination of drinking water supplies. Damage to urban water systems can be much more
severe than in the rural areas as shown in Table 2.4 from the earlier 2008 floods in Yemen.
Urban damages again exceed rural ones.

Table 2.4: Damages and Losses in the water supply and sanitation sector

Sector Damage Loss Total Total

Riyal Millions Riyal Millions Riyal Millions US$m

Rural 1,059 66 1125 5.63

Urban water 3559 612 4171 20.86

Urban 1414 43 1457 7.29

wastewater
Total 6032 721 6753 33.78

Source; GOY (2009)

Drainage systems can also become overwhelmed as a consequence of intense rainfall; they may
also have inadequate capacity to cope with the rate of rain water runoff, leading to surface water
flooding. The interconnected nature of modern infrastructure systems often means that failure of
one system caused by floodwater can have a cascading impact on other systems which may or
may not have been damaged by the flood. Loss of power, for example, may have impacts on
many other systems such as water supply and communications. In particular the high dependence
of most modern systems on information and communications technologies makes them
extremely vulnerable to loss of connectivity (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.11.3 Animals and crops

Within urban and peri-urban environments the impact of floods are likely to be on domestic pets
and individual animals kept for personal food supply, such as poultry. Such animals can be
regarded as part of the family and their rescue, or concern for their whereabouts, can delay or
prevent evacuation. Floods also cause deaths and injuries to livestock and fish stocks and

54
damages crops, although for urban populations this may represent an indirect impact, as they are
less likely to be involved in agriculture than the rural population. Loss of agricultural production
will, however, affect the food supply chain on which the populations of urban areas are highly
dependent (Weir, 2009). Large scale disasters like flooding can reduce food availability in cities,
but such urban food insecurity is, for the most part, considered to be a food access problem,
rather than a food availability problem. Food shortages lead to rising prices, so that the poor
cannot afford to buy it as incomes decrease due to lack of work; this results in economic and
financial hardship (IFRC, 2010).

2.11.4 Cascading impacts

Flood events can be a catalyst for other disasters both natural and human-made, or can be part of
a chain of cascading events mentioned above. A dramatic recent example of this phenomenon is
the damage to the Fukushima nuclear power generator in Japan after the 2011 tsunami: a
massive-scale disaster arose at the end of a chain initiated by an earthquake. A common
secondary effect of flooding is large mudflows and landslides, as was observed in Korea in 2011.
Catastrophic failure of interconnected infrastructure can also cause a man-made disaster if, for
example, dam controls fail due to loss of power or flood damage. Chemical or sewage related
pollution of water supply can result from damage to factories or treatment plants. In considering
the impact of floods, and the benefits of prevention, the potential for cascading impacts should
not be overlooked (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.11.5 Post-disaster damage assessment

In the aftermath of major disasters such as floods, governments with the help of organizations
such as the World Bank and the United Nations, undertake damage, loss and needs assessment,
widely known as Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA), in order to better plan recovery
actions. Many use the Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLa) methodology, which was developed
by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UN-ECLAC) in the
early 1970s. In the 2010 Pakistan floods, which have been described as the worst in the last 80
years, the assessed damage and loss estimated by the PDNA was PKR 855 billion or US $10.1
billion, which is equivalent to 5.8% of GDP (GFDRR, 2010).

55
Flood loss assessment can be carried out at various points within the event cycle: during the
flood itself (thus informing the emergency response and relief coordination); in the immediate
aftermath of a flood event (around one to three weeks after the flood peak); or three to six months
after the event (to provide a more in-depth assessment of the full economic impact). Often the
best time to conduct an in-depth assessment of flood losses is after six months, as most losses,
including indirect and intangible losses, can then be assessed with sufficient reliability. There
needs to be a standard approach to loss assessments, primarily to ensure that works undertaken to
provide mitigation or warning systems produce a sound return on the investment; to have a
common measuring tool for assessing alternative mitigation plans; and to assist with post-
disaster recovery planning and management. Loss assessments should be transparent, so
assessment procedures can be easily followed; consistent and standardized, to allow meaningful
comparisons; replicable, to enable the assessments to be checked; and based on economic
principles, so that assessed losses accurately represent the real losses to the economy.

2.12 Indirect and other effects of flooding

In addition to the direct impacts of floods outlined above, there are indirect impacts caused by
the complex interactions within the natural environment and the human use of resources in cities
and towns. Such indirect impacts can be hard to immediately identify and harder still to quantify
and value. Indeed, some will not become fully apparent until well after the flooding subsides.
These indirect impacts can be subdivided into four major groups and are outlined below.

2.12.1 Natural environment

High rainfall can cause erosion and landslides, often on a large scale in areas of steep
topography. These in turn can damage infrastructure, especially roads, which are often the only
way of accessing communities affected by flooding. The erosion causes high concentrations of
sediment and debris which are then deposited when the flooding subsides. Removal of the
sediment and debris is costly and time consuming. In some extreme cases, buildings and whole
parts of towns may well have to be abandoned. Relocation may be the only solution, which will
involve revised land use zoning.

The smothering of agricultural land by sediment can also be a problem for high value vegetable
production in peri-urban zones, as a lot of such sediment is low in organic matter. Yields may

56
never return to their previous level with resulting impacts on human livelihoods and nutrition
Heavy rainfall can also cause damage to vegetation (whether natural or planted), and results in
the reduction in the ability of vegetation to dissipate the energy of heavy rain. Primary forest
cover with a high closed canopy is very efficient at dissipating rainfall energy whereas secondary
regrowth or trees planted for economic reasons are less likely to have closed canopies and are
less efficient in diffusing rainfall energy. This can result in less infiltration to the soil and higher
levels of rainfall runoff which also further increases the risk of soil erosion and gullying (Abhas
et al., 2011).

Coastal flooding in tropical areas as a result of tsunamis triggered by seismic action, or cyclones,
causes damage or destruction to coral reefs which then reduces their ability to dissipate wave
energy. When coupled with the fact that sea level rise in many such locations is now faster than
the rate of coral growth, the risk of more severe flood events is increased. The damage to coral
often increases the risk of coastal erosion. Flooding of coastal areas with saline sea water as a
result of cyclones and that more girls and young women were killed than boys in south east Asia,
for example. The boys were often able to climb trees, whereas the girls did not, partly because of
social taboos. Some years later, there was an increase in the birth rate, which was seen to be a
response to ‘replace’ children who had perished. This created a very unbalanced age structure
and, in particular, put a greater burden on women, which is often exacerbated by rising levels of
post-flood gender-based violence and the negative impact of floods on women’s assets, such as
dowries, which often do not feature in post-disaster impact assessments. In the case of
Bangladesh, as elsewhere, these changes in demography varied greatly across the affected area,
reflecting highly localized flood risk situations (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.12.2 Health impacts

The impacts on human health as a result of flooding can be very serious indeed, and there is
evidence that in some flood events more fatalities have occurred due to waterborne and water
related disease or injuries, rather than by drowning. During the 2007 monsoon floods in
Bangladesh, snake bites were estimated to be the second most significant cause of death after
drowning and contributed to more deaths than even diarrhoeal and respiratory diseases (Alirol et
al., 2010). Post-disaster human health is also closely associated with changes in the balance of
the natural environment. For example, flooding caused by over flow of river banks, or by storm

57
surges, alters the balance of the natural environment and ecology, allowing vectors of disease
and bacteria to flourish. Outbreaks of cholera and a higher incidence of malaria can result from
such alterations. Noji (2005) maintains that an increase in disease transmission and the risk of
epidemics in the post-flood period depends on population density and displacement, and the
extent to which the natural environment has been altered or disrupted. In 2009, weeks after back-
to-back cyclones left nearly 1,000 people dead, the Philippines was grappling with an outbreak
of Leptospirosis (a fatal flood-borne disease); this infected survivors from areas where dirty
water had yet to subside. In a report to emergency relief agencies, Health Secretary Francisco
Duque said that as of 26 October that year, there were 2,158 confirmed cases of this particular
infection, with 167 deaths reported by the National Epidemiology Center (IRIN, 2009).

The provision of adequate non-contaminated water supplies during and after a flood event is
critical. There are often problems due to a lack of fuel to boil water for drinking. The main risks
are diarrhoeal diseases including cholera, dysentery and typhoid along with malaria, dengue
(although mosquito carriers require relatively clean water habitats), Leischmeniasis (also known
as kalaazar) and Leptospirosis, spread by contact with water contaminated by infected animal
urine. Another significant issue is the psychological impact on survivors, including delayed
trauma. Many survivors, including children, will be severely traumatized. Great care is needed
when dealing with this. A number of studies have shown a range of symptoms resulting from
exposure to natural disasters such as flooding. Among these consequences, individuals may
experience symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and anxiety (Mason
et al., 2010).

Miller (2005) suggests that alcohol consumption, substance abuse, and antisocial behaviour
increased among men in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in India and Sri Lanka.
Given the range and severity of health implications following disasters, the health profession has
developed new approaches and new mechanisms referred to as ‘disaster medicine’ or ‘disaster
health management’ (Andjelkovic, 2001).

2.12.3 Human development impacts

The impact on long-term health and development of populations may be difficult to quantify but
some research shows that severe floods can affect nutrition to the extent that children affected

58
never catch up and are permanently disadvantaged (Bartlett 2008). Births in the immediate
aftermath of disasters are likely to result in higher mortality and birth defects. After a major
event, displacement or break up of families due to the death of one or both parents can have
disastrous long-term effects on the families themselves and the wider community. Education can
also suffer due to malnutrition effects, displacement or schools being closed. Although in
wealthy areas a flood event is usually a temporary interruption which can be coped with, in
poorer areas floods typically worsen poverty.

2.12.4 Economic and financial impacts

The direct impacts of flooding as indicated earlier will have knock on economic implications
aside from the cost of replacing damaged or destroyed items. For example, a recent report stated
that flooding is one of the major factors that prevents Africa’s growing population of city
dwellers from escaping poverty, thereby standing in the way of the UN 2020 goal of achieving
‘significant improvement’ in the lives of urban slum dwellers (Action Aid, 2006).

2.12.5 Impact on long-term economic growth

In assessing the economic impacts of flooding, care must be taken to adopt both local and
national perspectives. Disasters have a large impact on those directly affected but a much smaller
effect on the national economy. Some local impacts, such as the effect on the tourist trade, may
be balanced by growth in trade elsewhere in the country. Typically, small to medium scale
disasters may have no impact on the national balance sheet. At a national level, studies have
found a variety of relationships between disasters and economic growth. There is some evidence
to suggest that frequent natural disasters can have a positive impact on national economies (Kim
2010). The process has been labelled ‘creative destruction’, based on the assumption that
reconstruction activities result in increased employment and renewal of facilities. An article by
Skidmore and Toya (2002) into natural disasters in 89 countries concluded that the frequency of
climatic disasters is positively correlated with human capital accumulation, growth in total factor
productivity and per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Noy (2009) found that a nation’s
ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction influences the relationship between disasters and
economics. Developing countries are therefore unlikely to benefit in the long term from disasters.
Other studies have contradicted these findings, but Kim (2010) found a difference between

59
climate related and geological disasters, in that the former had a positive effect on the long term
economy. Loayza et al., (2009) found that median level flood events had a significantly positive
impact on economic growth, while larger scale floods had little effect.

2.12.6 Impact on development goals

As a result of the lack of insurance cover, most low income countries divert funds from other
development goals to flood recovery operations. Governments may face liquidity problems in the
face of massive natural disasters and have to rely on international aid, development funds or
insurance to reinforce national tax revenue. Gurenko and Lester (2004) estimate that, on average,
the direct cumulative costs of natural disasters in India account for up to 12 % of central
government revenues. This can have significant impact on the national economy, resulting in
important infrastructure spending being delayed or cancelled. In addition, there will be a need to
arrange a system of financing for replacement infrastructure provision, both private and public. It
is likely that funding for this will be at the expense of existing on-going development work.
Economic priorities have to be set against a background of widespread need and the economic
implications will, therefore, spread through a much wider part of the society than those directly
impacted by flooding. The challenge is for governments and the private sector to work together
to set the priorities for reconstruction. Another post-flood impact, which directly or indirectly
affects already suffering people, is the burden of debt for restoration of the economy. This puts
extra pressure on people and reduces their financial ability to cope with the changed situation,
making them in turn more vulnerable (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.12.7 Impact on livelihoods

At the household level, livelihoods are likely to be severely undermined. The severity of this is a
function of the impact of the flood on employment availability, specifically whether any
members of the household have been killed or injured and the degree to which they contributed
to the social and economic functioning of the household. Single-headed households, notably by
women, are particularly vulnerable to the loss of livelihoods. At the wider community level,
skills which will suddenly be in demand (for instance, those needed for building replacement
infrastructure) could well be beyond those available within the surviving population (Abhas et
al., 2011).

60
2.12.8 Business interruption

Businesses often fail in the aftermath of disasters due to direct damage, or to indirect impacts
such as business interruption. Business may be closed down due to lack of access or failure of
basic services, such as water supply, waste water collection and treatment, electricity, roads and
telecommunications. This, in turn, is likely to have significant economic implications for areas
much wider than the immediate flooded area. The replacement of such services can be complex
(for example, starting up a damaged power station when you need power in order to do so), will
take time and money, and will cause serious economic losses. The 2011 tsunami in Japan put a
serious strain on the national economy and also had global impacts: as an example, the supply of
Japanese made vehicle parts to automobile assembly plants around the world was severely
disrupted. Businesses which can continue to operate may take months to recover and to return to
normal trading. The recovery process may be hampered by the loss of documentation in the
flooding, leading to delays in tracing orders, completing insurance claims and issuing invoices
(Abhas et al., 2011). Other indirect effects may include increased expenses; lack of demand; the
short term loss of market share; loss of key personnel; lack of availability of staff due to injury,
travel difficulties or involvement in recovery operations; loss of production efficiency; loss of
supplies; withdrawal of licenses; and loss of quality accreditation or approved standards. For
many businesses these impacts can be catastrophic: one report suggests that 43 % of companies
experiencing a disaster never reopen and 29 % of the remainder close within two years (Wenk
2004).

2.12.9 Political and institutional issues

A severe flooding occurrence is likely to place a serious strain on the institutional structures and
capabilities that, in less developed countries, may already be weak. There will be a pressing need
to clearly identify the roles and remits of both government and non-government organizations.
The lack of or poor performance by government organizations can seriously undermine faith in
government institutions; this happened after Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005 (Abhas
et al., 2011). In some cases, political bias in allocation of funds is detectable, which may result in
donors reducing the level of future disaster aid. Another major factor can be maintaining the
security of assets that displaced people have been forced to leave behind. The less well-off
sections of society will be those least able to help themselves, but conversely they have fewer

61
assets to lose. This may also have ethnic or gender dimensions, which can divide communities
and lead to political instability (Abhas et al., 2011).

2.13 Vulnerability and risk mapping

Given the seriousness and implications of the flood impacts detailed above, techniques are
required for the estimation and assessment of risk. According to the United Nations Department
of Humanitarian Affairs (UNDHA) the concept of risk assessment involves the survey of a real
or potential disaster in order to estimate the actual or expected damage for making
recommendations for prevention, preparedness and response (UNDHA, 1992). This essentially
consists of evaluation of risk in terms of expected loss of lives, people injured, property damaged
and businesses disrupted. Based on the existing definitions, risk is the product of hazard and
vulnerability and can be mathematically expressed for a given event in a particular area and
reference time period.

Assessments are mainly based on the depth of flood water and they are further used for risk
analysis and evaluating the cost of damage. The main philosophy behind evaluation of risk is to
provide a sound basis for the planning and allocation of funds and other resources. The
framework of risk assessment illustrated by WMO (1999) indicates that evaluation of hazards
and vulnerability assessment should proceed as parallel activities, in a consistent manner, so that
results may be combined and comparable. For example, two cities may be equally vulnerable,
but could have very different exposure to the hazard, depending on their elevation. The main
problem in doing so is the availability of organized data, especially in developing countries and
the cost and effort needed to acquire data. The basic steps involved in a risk assessment process
are:

 Hazard estimation with reference to location, level of severity and the frequency of event
occurrence
 Estimation of exposure of elements at risk
 Estimation of vulnerability
 Estimation of risk by integrating hazard, exposure and vulnerability.

62
As indicated earlier, in most cases risk assessments are performed based on direct damages.
Indirect damages, also known as ‘second order’ effects, are often ignored leading to
underestimation of the total cost of flood damage. It can be difficult to get appropriate data for
indirect damage assessment, the main problems being measuring accurately the ripple effects on
the economy and impacts on infrastructure and communication disruption. In addition, historical
data do not disaggregate the total loss into direct and indirect losses; discrepancies in data can
arise when gathered on a survey basis and there may be non-cooperation in disclosure of
financial losses by affected people and companies. The assessment of second order risks is,
however, achievable if appropriate data is available. In order to perform a comprehensive risk
assessment, thus reducing the difference between actual and estimated damage assessment,
integration of primary and secondary sources of damage assessment and risk evaluation is
necessary. In areas of multiple hazards the risk is sometimes cascading in nature. It might not be
generated by natural sources, but accompanies an event or follows immediately afterwards.
Flooding leaves a large amount of debris in its way, disrupting normal drainage and
transportation systems. It may also cause fires and electrical short circuits, leading to more
damage and destruction. Salt water contamination in coastal regions can also affect water supply
lines, as well as contributing to the rate of deterioration of property and other assets (Abhas et
al., 2011).

In addition to raw sewage spills and debris, flood water may also contain toxic materials, leading
to pollution of the local environment. There are occasions when a landslide or earthquake causes
flooding: this is particularly true in multi hazard areas where one disaster leads to another,
resulting in a much greater incidence of damage and destruction.

As discussed above, the impact of floods on the urban environment is caused by the action of
hazard on exposed and vulnerable receptors. Changes in impacts from flooding can, therefore,
result from changes in the hazard; changes in the exposure of populations and their assets; or
changes in the vulnerability of the exposed populations and assets. To understand the potential
impact on a community and the appropriate response, flood risk maps are an invaluable tool: they
provide the foundation upon which a well-planned risk management strategy can be built. They
assist decision makers to make cost benefit assessments, to prioritize spending, to direct

63
emergency assistance and to design and implement mitigation activities of all kinds. Risk maps
are also necessary for financial planning and insurance purposes (Abhas et al., 2011).

Flood risk maps are built upon the flood hazard maps which were discussed in Chapter 1 and on
the understanding of the impact of different flood events on the exposed population and assets. In
this chapter the impacts which lead to damage and loss have already been outlined. In order to
quantify flood risk completely, it is necessary to estimate the expected losses from potential
future flood events, based on the best understanding of impacts. Most risk assessments will start
with an assessment of losses due to physical direct damage using a stage damage function and
asset database. Extension of risk analysis to incorporate indirect and intangible losses is rarer.
Such damage calculations include other sources of uncertainty such as the valuation of non-
market goods and affected services (like ecosystems and biodiversity) and the choice of discount
rate or any other means of dealing with time preference (Hall et al., 2008; Merz et al., 2010).

2.13.1 Assessing vulnerability

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system (in this case, people or assets) is susceptible to or
unable to cope with the adverse effects of natural disasters. It is a function of the character,
magnitude and rate of hazard to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity (the degree to which a
system is affected, adversely or beneficially) and its adaptive capacity (the ability of a system to
adjust to changes, moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities or cope with the
consequences). The different types of vulnerability and the factors affecting their rate of
exposure are shown in Table 2.5 below.

Table 2.5: Different types of vulnerability and the factors affecting their rate of exposure

Types of Vulnerability Exposure factors

Individual or household vulnerability Education, age, gender, race, income, past
disaster experience
Social vulnerability Poverty, race, isolation, lack of social security
services
Institutional Vulnerability Ineffective policies, unorganized and
non-committed public and private institutions

64
Economic Vulnerability Financial insecurity, GDP, sources of national
income and funds for disaster prevention
and mitigation
Physical Vulnerability Location of settlement, material of building,
maintenance, forecasting and warning system
Environmental Vulnerability Poor environmental practices, unprecedented
population growth and migration
System vulnerability Utility service for the community, health
services, resilient system
Place Vulnerability Mitigation and social fabric
Source: Abhas et al., (2011).

To measure vulnerability at different scales, hazard researchers have used numerous strongly
correlated variables, such as the physical, social, economic, and political condition of the area of
occurrence. Some of the major factors which increase vulnerability to urban flooding, especially
in developing countries, are: poverty, poor housing and living conditions, lack of preparedness
and management of flood defences, increasing population, development of squatter settlements
in hazard prone regions, poor maintenance of drainage structures, lack of awareness among the
general population and limitations in early warning systems.

Vulnerability assessment is carried out in order to identify the most vulnerable sections of the
society and thus prioritize the assistance by channelling resources. Undertaking a vulnerability
assessment therefore requires consideration of: the location of the area, resources under threat
(both population and physical elements), level of technology available, lead time for warning and
the perceptions of residents regarding hazard awareness (ADPC and UNDP, 2005). Mapping
vulnerability can help the policy makers and managers to identify the areas of highest
susceptibility and impact, in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance capacity building, by
concentrating efforts in those locations.

2.15 Summary of Literature Review

From the reviewed literature, it is quite clear from the numerous studies, articles and peer
reviewed journals that floods are really issues of public concern. The literature identified among

65
many other things, the causes, impacts, vulnerability, mitigation and preventive responses to
floods. This study will be of relevance to national and international discourse on flood
management as findings on the causes of flood in the study areas will help reinforce what is
already known or yet to be known. The identified impact of flood disasters on the livelihood of
the people is necessary to formulate pragmatic policies to help the most vulnerable and socially
disadvantaged individuals to adapt to the situation. This is because they are at the centre of
discourses on sustainable development. Doing this will not only require adaptation but also long
term mitigation and preventive responses to flood. This means a seasonal and ad hoc response to
flood management may not be an adequate preventive measure. Local participation in flood
management is an acclaimed strategy in current development discourse. NADMO‟s performance
in this regard will help determine the extent to which the country is well prepared for flood
disasters. An analytical comparison between flood disasters and rural urban migration will assist
development actors to take a second look at the environmental implications of flood disasters.

66
 CHAPTER THREE: MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1 Study Area

3.1.1 Location and the People

Tamale Metropolitan Assembly (TaMA) is one of the six Metropolitan Assemblies in the
country and the only Metropolis in the three northern regions of Ghana. TaMA has 3 sub metros
comprising Tamale Central, North and South, and Sagnarigu District within the metro with a
total population of 418,608 (Ghana Statistical Service, 2010). The TaMA is one of the 26
districts located in the centre of the Northern Region and shares boundaries with six other
districts namely the Savelugu/Nanton to the north, Yendi Municipal Assembly to the east,
Tolon/Kumbungu to the west, Central Gonja to the south west and East Gonja to the south. The
Metropolis has a total estimated land size of 750 km sq which is about 13% of the total land area
of the Northern Region. Geographically, the Metropolis lies between latitude 9º 161 and 9º 341
North and longitudes 0º 361 and 0º 571 West. There are a total of 197 communities in the
Metropolis of which 33 are urban communities. The Metropolis is located about 180 metres
above sea level. The topography is generally rolling with some shallow valleys and some
isolated hills, which do not inhibit physical development (Ghana Statistical Service, 2010).

The Metropolis is a Cosmopolitan area with Dagombas as the majority ethnic group. Other
minority ethnic groupings are Gonjas, Mampurusis, Akan, Dagarbas, and tribes from the Upper
East region including Gruni, Kasena and Kusasi. The area has deep rooted cultural practices such
as festivals, naming and marriage ceremonies. Important traditional festivals celebrated in the
area include the Bugum (fire) and Damba festivals. Important religious festivals celebrated by
Muslims who are the majority are Eid-ul-Fitr and Eid-ulAdha. History traces the origin of the
Dagomba Kingdom to Tohazie (the Red Hunter) through Naa Gbewaa to the present traditional
system of administration. The map below shows boundary of TaMA with Sagnerigu District.

67
Figure 3.1: Map showing boundary of TaMA with Sagnerigu District.
Source: Town and Country Planning, Tamale (2014).

The five communities along the zoned area chosen for the purpose of this study are located in
Sagnerigu District within the Metropolis. These can be located in Figure 3.2, which shows the
selected communities all located along the river in the district within the metropolis.

68
Figure 3.2: Map showing selected communities in Sagnerigu District.
Source: Town and Country Planning, Tamale (2014).

3.1.2 Climate
The climate of the study area is tropical and semi-arid. Annual precipitation averages just over
1050 mm, while potential evapotranspiration is about 1770 mm (Pelig-Ba, 2000). There are only
about 4–6 months of rainfall during the year, from May to October, the rest, from November to
May, is relatively dry and hot. After the raining period, the northeast trade winds, locally termed
the harmattan, prevails up to February/March. During the period, the weather becomes very dry
and hot during the day, with temperature up to 40°C but cools to less than 20°C in the night
(Ghana districts.com, 2006). The harsh climatic conditions during the warm season usually have
considerable effect on temperatures and make the area mostly endemic to cerebrospinal

69
meningitis popularly now as csm (Ghana Statistical Service, 2005). Positively, this climatic
feature is also a potential for the preservation industry that could use the sunshine as a natural
preservative.

3.1.3 Soils
The main soil types in the Metropolis are derived from sandstone, gravel, mudstone and shale
that have weathered into different soil grades. Due to seasonal erosion, soil types emanating from
this phenomenon are sand, clay and laterite ochrosols. The availability of these soil types has
contributed to rapid real estate development in the area where estate developers have resorted to
the use of local building materials such as river sand, gravel and clay (TaMA, 2012).

3.1.4 Drainage
The Metropolis is poorly endowed with water bodies. This is attributed to the low underground
water table. The only natural water systems are a few ephemeral streams which have water
during the rainy season and dry up during the long dry season. The streams have their headway
from Tamale which is situated on a higher ground and the few ephemeral streams whose
drainage basin forms part of the study area of this research. Unfortunately, these water bodies are
quickly becoming extinct due mainly to the influence of human activities such as estate
development, encroachment and indiscriminate waste disposal activities. This is a very serious
problem and contributed to the choice of the research problem being investigated.

Aside this, some artificial dams and dugouts have been constructed either by the metropolitan
assembly, individual community members or by Non-Governmental Organisations in the
Metropolis. Two such dams include the Builpela and Lamashegu dams. These dams/dugouts
serve as watering sources for animals as well as for domestic purposes. Despite this poor
drainage situation, the Metropolis still has the potential for irrigation schemes. For instance the
Pagazaa stream, is the main drainage basin, has a potential for agricultural production if it is
dammed for irrigation purposes (TaMA, 2012). Figures 3.3, 3.4 and 3.5 show drainage basin in
TaMA

70
Figure 3.3 Map showing drainage basin in TaMA
Source: Field work, 2014.

Figure 3.4 Map showing drainage basin and 3D in TaMA

Source: Field work, 2014.

71
Figure 3.5 Map showing 3D drainage basin in TaMA
Source: Field work, 2014.

3.1.5 Development Indicators

Literacy rate: Less than one-quarter (22.6 %) of adults (15 years and older) in the Northern
Region are literate compared to the national average of 53.4 %. The adult literacy rate for males
(32.2 %) is about two and a half times that of females (12.9 %). At the district level,
Gushiegu/Karaga records the lowest rate (9.3 %) while Tamale has the highest (46.4 %). Apart
from Tamale Metro, all the other districts register adult literacy rates below 30 %. In all the
districts, adult literacy rates for males are substantially higher than females, with rates more than
twice those of females except for Tamale which is one and a half times. Gushiegu/Karaga
records the lowest rates for both females (3.2 %) and males (16.1 %) (CWIQ, 2003)

The youth literacy rate for the region were 35.7 % which is slightly over half of the national
average (68.7 %), with Tamale having the highest rate (62.9 %) while Gushiegu/Karaga (18.9 %)
has the lowest. The rates for males exceed those of females in all the districts, still by wide
margins, and Gushiegu/Karaga records the lowest youth literacy rates for both females (9.6 %)
and males (25.7 %) (CWIQ, 2003)

72
Poverty rate: The proportion of persons aged 15 years and older who are unemployed in the
region is 2.0 % compared to the national average of 5.4 %. The proportion for females (2.3 %) is
slightly higher than that of males (1.7 %), and they are generally low for both males and females
in all the districts including Tamale Metro. However, the level of unemployment is higher for
females than for males in all districts except in Savelugu/Nanton, Nanumba, East Mamprusi and
Tolon/Kumbungu, where the levels for males are either higher or about equal to the levels for
females. The underemployment rate (6.75 %) in the region is about half the national rate (13.6
%). The lowest underemployment rate is reported in West Gonja (0.5 %) followed by West
Mamprusi (2.3%), but is as high as (14.8 %) in Nanumba (CWIQ, 2003).

3.2 Study methods

The study will essentially focus on the human induced causes of flooding while examining the
roles professional bodies play as well, particularly the Hydrological Department, Town and
Country Planning Department as well as TaMA. It also looks at how the floods have affected the
lives of the people as well as the efforts that can be made to avoid or minimize the impacts of a
similar future disaster.

3.3 Conceptual Frameworks

The contextual framework can be represented by the organogram below where the cause of the
floods are seen as the activities of the people within the communities as well as the lack of
relevant professional bodies such as planners or the neglect of their responsibilities. With the
building of the capacity of the professionals and social capital through education, an informed
population will be achieved and will be more proactive in dealing with issues concerning floods
so as to achieve a safer environment.

73
 Safer environment O
Reference u
t
Core problem c
o
m
Effects Informed community e

Solutions

Loss of lives FLOODING Poverty

and property

Building social
Improving the capacity capital through
of relevant education
professionals/governme
nt agencies

-Human activities
C
-Neglect by relevant
professionals/gover a
nment agencies
u

s
Relevant Community
professional members
bodies/governme
nt agencies
Figure 3.6: Conceptual Framework diagram.
Source: Author’s concept based on field visit (2014)

74
3.4 Tools and techniques for collecting and analysing data

This study uses a qualitative and quantitative research strategy as the methodological approach to
find answers to the research questions raised. This choice is influenced by the researcher’s quest
to “see through the eyes of the people being studied” and assess their local knowledge on the
causes, impacts, vulnerability and mitigation response to flooding in Tamale Metropolis. Both
primary and secondary data sources where collected over a two-month period, June 2013 to
August 2013, from five key communities, namely Sogunayili, Gbalo, Jisonayili, Gumani and
Fuo all in Tamale Metropolis. Semi-structured interviews, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs),
participant observations and text and document analysis where used as qualitative tools to collect
data.

3.5 Scope of the study

The research considered the case of flooding as it occurs in communities along the river basin in
Tamale Metropolis. The communities chosen were Sogunayili, Gbalo, Jisonayili, Gumani and
Fuo in the Tamale Metropolis. These communities were chosen because after visits to them and
enquiries from related authorities and departments, it was discovered that they are the most
affected whenever the Metropolis river basin exceeds its carrying capacity, overflows its banks
and floods its basin.

The research was designed to carefully identify the causes, impacts, prevention and management
techniques of flooding in the selected communities. It is important to note that the causes as well
as impacts of flooding in these areas may not be only natural but also man-made. The study
identified both the natural and man-made causes and impacts of flooding in the selected
communities. The proper management of flooding by both authorities and the affected members
of the communities was also investigated and recommendations made where necessary.

Through observation and analysis of responses from affected members of the communities, the
impacts of floods were identified. Reasons were sought as to why the households continued to
endure the losses which sometimes could be as priceless as the loss of life by still living in this
‘danger’ zone. Prevention they say is better than cure. The study demanded answers from
concerned authorities including the metropolitan assembly and the respective assemblies and
leaders in the communities in a bid to understand what methods had so far been adopted to at

75
least reduce the impact of flooding on family members and the successes and failures of these
methods. Coping strategies adopted by affected communities were thus identified and discussed
in this study.

3.6 Limitations

The researcher was faced with quite a number of limitations including constraints which were
mainly financial and logistical in nature. The researcher was also constrained by time since
specified time periods have been set by the University Completion and submission of theses.

3.7 Methodology

Research methodology is crucial for the success of any research and more especially, academic
research. The methodology helps to put the study in proper perspective by presenting the
underlying rules and principles for a particular research. A successful research is thus based on
an appropriate choice of design and control in order to efficiently achieve the objectives of the
study.

3.7.1 Research design

The research design was basically a systematic plan or strategy of investigation using the most
efficient methods. Qualitative and quantitative design methods featured prominently in this
research. A cross-sectional design was adopted in this research because only a cross-section of
the problem could be studied given the constraint of time. It followed a logical sequence from
the collection of data to its analysis after which appropriate recommendations were made.

3.7.2 Types and sources of data collected

Primary data used included information from selected residents and other business owners about
the causes of flooding and its impacts on their social service deliveries. Secondary data was
collected from selected institutions in Tamale. Information sought included the government
institutions’ primary functions and specific roles in flood prevention and management as well as
their views as to the causes and possible preventive measures needed to deal with floods in
Tamale. These institutions included:

Ghana Meteorological Agency, Tamale

76
Town and Country Planning, Tamale

Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), Tamale

Ghana Hydrological Service (GHS)

Waste Management Department of the Tamale Metropolitan Assembly

National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO), Tamale

Other forms of data including maps, population figures, rainfall figures and city plans were also
sourced from the relevant institutions mentioned above. Secondary data was carefully studied
and reviewed to come out with information relevant to the better understanding and execution of
the research study. Tertiary sources of data in the form of text books about flooding were also
consulted.

3.7.3 Methods of data collection

Primary data was used in this study. Questionnaires were administered to 376 respondents and
five relevant institutions in the field to gather primary data relevant to the study. The interview
technique was used to gather qualitative primary data in the study area. Furthermore, the
structured type of interviews was conducted using an interview schedule with the households and
relevant institutions as key informants to the research problem. Observation was one of the
methods used in data collection. Through this, the impacts of flooding on various physical
structures were observed and noted and some pictures were taken. The levels of flood water in
and around such structures in times of floods were also identified and measured. Relevant
information from secondary data was also used to help in the better understanding and execution
of the research study.

3.8 Sampling design and technique

The researcher was faced with a very large sample size. The total population of the Sogunayili,
Gbalo, Jisonayili, Gumani and Fuo communities lying within the Metropolis flood prone zone is
38213 people (GSS, 2000).

77
Table 3.1: Flood prone areas and population at risk in the Metropolis

Area Total population Number of Households Sample Size

Sognayili 869 119 7
Gbalo 346 56 3
Jisonayili 2802 374 22
Gumani 33345 5829 337
Fuo 851 110 6
Total 38213 6488 376
Source: Ghana Statistical Service, (2000).

The population from which the sample was drawn consisted of all the households within 100 to
200 meters of the zoned areas in the respective communities. The purposive sampling method
was used in choosing households because there was the need to interview those situated close to
the river that had experienced flooding. The stratified sampling method was used to calculate the
number of households per community, the total of which made up the sample frame. The
household head or any adult in charge was interviewed.

Table 3.1 shows the respective sample sizes of the communities within the catchment area
indicated in the study. The calculation of these can be found in appendix 1. Officials of the Town
and Country Planning Department, the Waste Management Department and the Ghana
Meteorological Service in the Tamale Metropolis were interviewed. Attempts were also made to
interview the Hydro Engineer of the Hydrological Services Department and personnel from the
National Disaster Management Organisation in Tamale. All these institutions are related in one
way or the other to the problem under investigation as key informants.

3.9 Data analysis

The data collected was summarised and analysed using both qualitative and quantitative method.
Responses from households and other institutions were coded and entered into a database to
generate tables and cross tabulation where necessary to facilitate the analyses of the quantitative
data. This was necessary to help establish relationships between variables. All these were done
with the aid of the Microsoft Office Excel and Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS).
The specific tools of the package utilised include cross tabulations, regression, correlation,
78
percentages, pie charts and bar graphs. Maps of the drainage basin of the Metropolis and the
selected communities especially in low lying areas were also analysed to show the areas around
the zoned areas which are most liable to flooding. Various types of tables, charts and graphs have
been used in descriptive analysis of both qualitative and quantitative data gathered.

3.10 Presentation of results

Efforts were made to present results in a clear and comprehensive manner. Responses obtained
from questionnaires were coded and entered into a database with the help of the SPSS for
analyses. Results were represented mainly using tables, maps, graphs and charts.

3.11 Organisation of the study

The study has been organised into five chapters. The first chapter gives a general orientation of
the study. This contains the introduction, problem statement, objectives, method of study as well
as the rationale for the whole exercise.

Chapter two is an in depth review of literature and the conceptual framework on the problem of
flooding. It considered and examined other works done on the problem identifying gaps that
needed to be filled where necessary.

Chapter three is a discussion of the profile of the study area while chapter four deals with the
analysis, presentation and discussion of data collected on the field. It involves the organisation of
field data for analysis, discussion using specific tools of data analysis and presents a discussion
based on the institutional perspective of the problem. Finally, chapter five which is the last
chapter presents a summary of the findings of the study. Conclusions are then drawn with
recommended solutions for solving the problem.

79
 CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Introduction
Sogunayili, Gbalo, Jisonayili, Gumani and Fuo are part of the communities in the Metropolis
forming the study area, which are all flood zones and flooded annually. People living in these
communities face various problems due to this annual phenomenon. The data obtained from the
field has been critically considered and analysed and the results from this have been elaborately
discussed in this chapter.

4.2 Bio- data of respondents

To understand the issues arising from the problem and the appropriate primary data, it was
important to obtain the bio data of the respondents to put their concerns into proper perspective.
Because of the serious nature of the problem under investigation, it was important to identify
respondents in the study area who were old enough to understand the issues and give meaningful
responses which will help in giving an appropriate policy direction to correct the problem. Only
17.6 % of respondents were below 25 of age and 82.4 % of them aged from 26 years to above 50
years old. Thus, information given by respondents is clear and relevant since they clearly
understood the problem under investigation. The Majority of respondents interviewed were male
54 % with females being in the minority of (46 %). Dependants of the heads of households who
were aged below 25 years are 9.8 %.

The population and ethnicity forming the study area varies from one to another predominantly
made up of Dagombas and other groups from other parts of Ghana. However, more than half of
the respondents interviewed are Dagombas, less than quarter of them are tribes from Upper East
and the rest are other tribes from the country. There is a clear sign that the communities under
the study area are made up of different ethnic groups co-existing peacefully. Respondents were
mainly traders, students, artisans, wood workers and public servants. Respondents are mostly
self-employed with only 9.2 % working in the public service, with 11.7 % of respondents
unemployed. Respondents are mostly of the middle and lower class income levels.
Accommodation in the area is mostly for the middle and lower class income earners. This
assertion also reflected in the educational levels of respondents: 32.4 % of respondents had

80
attained primary school education, 46.9 % of respondents are senior secondary school graduates,
11.9 % are obtained tertiary education and 11.0 % have no formal education. Over sixty seven
percent (67.4 %) of respondents are owners of the houses they lived in, 24.1 % are tenants and
8.5 % being free occupants.

4.3 Reasons for continuous stay in flood prone area

One of the objectives of this study is to ascertain the reasons why people who are affected by
flooding keep on living in the flood prone areas. It is a very important objective since one
nagging question the researcher could not quite answer was if one has to go through such a
dangerous hazard every year, why not move away to stay in a safer and more conducive place.
Respondents were asked if they had experienced flooding before and almost all of them had:
97.9 % of respondents had experienced flooding and only 2.1 % said they did not. This led to the
attempt to understand why people continued to live in the area although they endure the
phenomenon of flooding each year.

Table 4.1: Reasons for Continuous Stay

Reasons Frequency Percentage
Affordability 226 60.1
Others 74 19.7
Proximity to work 38 10.1
Not applicable 30 8.0
Did not face problem 8 2.1
Total 376 100.00
Source: Field survey, 2014.

Table 4.1 indicates a summary of the varied reasons why respondents continued to stay in the
flood prone area of study. It is clear that most people lived in these areas because of affordability
of housing or accommodation: 60.1 % of the respondents are still living in the study area because
they could not afford the cost of renting or putting up a building at safer places. Over nineteen
percent (19.7 %) continue to stay in the area because of other reasons as living in family houses
or having lived there throughout their lives, others because of friends, just to mention a few.

81
Nearly ten percent (10.1 %) continued to stay in the area because of proximity to their places of
work or because it makes life a little easier for them especially with regard to earning a
livelihood. Some residents had their businesses right there in their various houses where they
also lived. Most of them were traders and artisans such as carpenters and they operated these
businesses in the study area. About 2 % of respondents claimed that their reason for staying in
the area was because they did not face any problem before. That does not debunk the fact that
they are not facing the problem since most of them admitted that currently, the issue of flooding
was becoming a problem for them. All these go to validate the proposition that ‘Socioeconomic
constraints are the motivation of inhabitants’ continual stay in flood prone areas’. While some
residents could not afford to move out of their communities, others continued to stay because of
social ties such as the need to stay in a family house to take care of it and not pay any rent.

16

Yes
No

84

Figure 4.1: Desire to move out.

Source: Field survey, 2014.

Almost 82 % of the respondents were willing to move out of their communities in the study area
if they could. Nineteen percent (19 %) were however unwilling to move out because of some
socioeconomic reasons previously discussed.

82
4.4 Causes of flooding in the Tamale Metropolis
The specific objectives of the study were to find out the natural and artificial causes of floods in
the Tamale Metropolis. This was essential because the causes revealed would be of immense
help to policy makers and other stake holders in the attempt to plan and mitigate current
situations and to prevent future occurrences.

Others 0.8

Hard land scaping 0.9

Causes of flooding

Building in water courses 10

Low lying nature of relief 12.6

Bad refuse disposal 24.8

Lack of drains 45.9

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Frequency (%)

Figure 4.2: Causes of flooding.

Source: Field survey, 2014.

Figure 4.2 gives an exciting vision into the causes of flooding according to the respondents in the
area. The most important root of flooding according to 45.9 % of the respondents is lack of
drains in the area. This was true because observations made in the field showed that in most
areas, proper drainage systems were absent. Where such drains existed, they were poorly
constructed. Another cause of flooding, according to the respondents, is improper refuse disposal
in the area: 24.8 % of the respondents indicated that the method of refuse disposal was an issue
and they believed that it was one of the major causes of the problem since natural drains were
choked with refuse. Over twelve percent (12.6 %) assign the cause of flooding to the low lying
nature of relief. This assertion was made mostly by those staying in the valley, and bear the brunt
of the floods. Building in water courses accounted for 10.0 % and building design 5.0 %. Only
83
0.9 % out of the sample size of 376 believed that hard landscaping was a cause to flooding while
0.8 % attributed the floods to other causes. Hard landscaping according to respondents was not
an issue for flooding. They however assigned other causes such as poor drainage design and poor
building designs to flooding in the study area.

4.4.1 Waste disposal

Field observations show waste disposal practiced in the area of study, was not environmentally
friendly at all. Respondents also specified that this was one of the major causes of flooding in the
area. Over 81 % of respondents dumped their waste in the natural drains or the banks of the
water ways. Only 9.1 % used public waste disposal dumps for waste disposal. This gives a clear
indication of the fact that human activities is one of the important causes of flooding in the
communities of the study area, since the natural drains get choked. Table 4.2 is a summary of
respondents’ views on the issue of waste disposal.

Table 4.2: Methods of waste disposal by respondents

Waste disposal method Frequency Percentage

Public dump 34 9.10
Dumping of refuse in the water way 194 51.60
Dumping of refuse at the banks of the water way 114 30.20
Burning of refuse 24 6.30
Others 10 2.70
Total 376 100.00
Source: Field survey, 2014.

Only less than 2.7 % of respondents paid for their waste to be collected and disposed of properly.
Unfortunately, they constitute the minority.

4.4.2 Land use

With regard to the respondents’ views about the causes of floods in the field, one could wonder if
there were any rules, regulations and plans governing land use in the flood prone zones. Majority
of respondents believed that land use planning was not followed at all. Buildings were erected

84
anywhere and anyhow without permits. About 56.1 % of respondents believed that rules were
not followed and land use was an issue to be dealt with in solving the flooding problem.

Table 4.3: Land use plan implementation according to respondents

Land use Frequency Percentage

Yes 165 43.9
No 211 56.1
Total 376 100
Source: Field survey, 2014.

4.5 Frequencies of flooding in the study area

Respondents’ views confirmed that flooding was a frequent phenomenon in the area. Almost 100
% quantified that floods occurred several times annually. Less than 1% out of the 376
respondents claimed that floods occurred only twice a year. Majority of the respondents (61.3 %)
confirmed that floods usually occurred during the months of August and September and 38.7 %
of the respondents found it difficult to specify the particular months in which the floods usually
occurred. They clarified that the flood results whenever there was heavy rainfall or a long period
of heavy rainfall or storms. Figure 4.3 shows the flood periods and frequency in the study area:
floods occurred mostly in the month of August and September and least in the month of October.
These follow the national rainfall distribution patterns.

85
 250
214
202.4
200
175.7
Frequency (%)

146.4
150
117.3
101.7
100

50

0
MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
Flooding periods

Figure 4.3: Periods of Annual Floods.

Source: Field survey, 2014.

It was important to find out the duration of floods, for detailed understanding of the problem and
its solution. Investigations were made from respondents of which minority (2.7 %) specified that
flood water and its after-effects usually lasted for as long as 1 to 2 days. That is to say the flood
waters took that long to recede. Majority (97.3 %) of the respondents indicated that flood water
lasted for less than a day. However, it was observed that those who made this claim were not
living very close to the bottom of the valley floor. Those who claimed floods could last for days,
however, were those who reside in the valley.

Table 4.4: Duration of floods

Flood duration
Less than a day 366 97.3
1-2 day 10 2.7
Total 376 100
Source: Field survey, 2014

86
4.6 Natural causes of flooding

Information obtained from the field was compared with secondary data obtained from the Ghana
Meteorological Agency in Tamale. This was to prove that climate variability and change could
be the cause of flooding. The rainfall and temperature figures obtained from the agency spanned
over a period of 27 years. These were analysed and used to draw graphs which show deviations
from average rainfall and temperature respectively over the 27 year period. The calculations for
the standard deviations of both rainfall and temperature can be found in appendices 2 and 4
respectively.

600

y = -238.17x - 10.89
Deviatio of Rainfall from the mean

400 R² = 0.1906

200
(mm)

0
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
-200

-400

-600
Deviation of temperature from the mean °c

Figure 4.4: Scatter plot between rainfall deviations (mm) and temperature deviations (⁰C).
Source: Field work, 2014.

According to the Meteorological Agency Tamale (2014), figure 4.4 clearly shows the
relationship between the deviation of rainfall from the mean (mm) and deviation of temperature
from the mean (°c). The basis of this graph is to test the hypothesis that “local climatic change is
responsible for intense rainfall that causes flooding along the zoned areas”. From the graph, it is
clear that there is a relatively weak relationship between the two as of now. The relationship is
negative meaning that temperature has no influence on rainfall; it is relatively weak and indicates

87
that climate change is not yet a major issue so far as flooding is concerned in the zoned areas.
Table 14 and figure 8 in appendix 3 show an interesting trend of increasing rainfall over the last
27 years. The average rainfall over the 27 years was 1094.16 mm. Thus, the origins in the graphs
represent the mean annual rainfall figure of 1094.16 mm. There are however deviations from this
average which peaked in the year 1991 at 485.6 mm. This is not surprising and could account for
the many floods which occurred in the year 1991. From table 14 and figure 8, it is clear that
rainfall patterns have been changing over time. In 1991 and 2002, rainfall values changed form
1579.8 mm to 563.3 mm respectively. This was far below the average rainfall over the 27 years.
This is attributable to the period of drought the country experienced in the year 2002. It can be
observed however from the trends in Table 14 and Figure 8 that the occurrence of above-average
rainfall was gradually increasing over time. With more rainfall into the study area, the incidence
of flooding also increases since excess discharge in channel naturally overflow and inundate the
adjacent lands. This is one of the reasons why flooding within the zoned area has been occurring
more frequently in recent times.

There was the need to consider temperatures trends over a period of at least 30 years in order to
discuss the effects of climate change on the incidence of flooding in the zoned basin. In
Appendix 5, Table 15 and Figure 9 generally show an increasing trend of temperatures over the
27 years under scrutiny. Mean annual temperature over 27 years was recorded as 28.73 ⁰C.
Deviations were therefore calculated from this average. Thus, the origin of the graph of Figure
4.4 represents the mean annual temperature.

It was very clear that deviation of temperature from the mean changed by -0.89 ⁰C in 1989 to
0.83 ⁰C in 2002. Temperature has increased slowly over the last 27 years. In 2002 for example,
mean annual temperature was as high as 29.56 ⁰C, an increase from the 1989 figure of 27.84 ⁰C.
Rising temperatures could lead to increases in evaporation from the river as well as
evapotranspiration from the basin and thus increased rainfall. The fact that most water bodies
including the zoned river have been exposed to direct sunlight accompanied by rising average
temperatures lead to increased evaporation. Again, the soil upon drying up of its antecedent
moisture becomes compact and does not allow easy infiltration and so generates excess runoff in
the basin. All these lead to the incidence of floods in general and more specifically in the study
area river basin. This is because more rainfall implies more discharge for the area river, the

88
excess of which inundates the flood plains of the river which unfortunately is inhabited by
human settlements.

4.7 Impacts of flooding

The main objective of the research was to find out the impacts of flooding on the social services
in the Tamale Metropolis. The suggestions to the causes of flooding in some of the communities
that are flood prone zones are both natural and man-made in nature. There is the need to throw
more light on the impacts of flooding. The impacts have been divided mainly into social,
economic, structural, and others.

4.7.1 Social Impacts

Some communities within the study area in the metropolis face a lot of social problems by
floods. According to respondents’ remarks, the main problems in the communities within the
study area are the breeding of mosquitoes which results in malaria infection and other water
borne and water related diseases. As high as 72.9 % of the respondents indicated that poor health
can be associated with post-flood effects. Floods can result in the inability to go to school or
work (14.3%), increased criminal activity (6.1 %), low standards of living (5.0 %), low self-
esteem (1.0 %), and others (0.8 %). An unhealthy person obviously cannot contribute
meaningfully to the development of a society and sometimes becomes a burden to those around
them. More money is spent on treatment of water related diseases especially malaria due to the
breeding of mosquitoes from stagnant dirty or muddy water which remains after the floods for a
while before drying up. The environment consequently becomes susceptible to the outbreak of
diseases such as malaria and cholera. Students and workers in these communities cannot go to
school or work. During this period, crime increases since thieves take advantage of the situation
to steal properties belonging to victims of the floods. All these lead to a low living standard in
these areas since money is spent annually to repair or replace broken properties or properties
carried away by flood water. Little money is left to maintain a good living standard which
requires living in a safe, healthy environment and earning enough to provide food, shelter and
other basic needs for one’s self and the family. Flooding situations have also led to a low self-
esteem among members of these communities. During floods, the smooth function of society is
affected with the direct consequences borne mainly by members of affected communities.

89
 1.8

5
6.1

Poor health
14.3 Cant go to school/work
Increase in crime
low standards of living
Others

72.9

Figure 4.5: Social Effects of Floods.

Source: Field survey, 2014.

4.7.2 Property Damage

Another unfortunate effect of floods in the area of study is that of property damage. Properties
destroyed by flood waters are mainly household furnishings and appliances. These include
furniture and electric appliances such as television sets, radios and sound systems. About 61 %
of respondents made this claim. Other properties are also destroyed as can be seen in Table 4.5
and all these bring untold difficulties to the victims.

Table 4.5: Property Damage due to Floods

Property damage Frequency Percentage

Interior room properties and electric appliances 231 61.5
Cloths, foodstuff and cooking utensils 65 17.2
Schools book, bags and shoes 46 12.2
Building material 5 1.2
No property damage 14 3.8

90
Other 15 4.1
Total 376 100.0
Source: Field survey, 2014.

4.7.3 Economic Effects of flooding

A very interesting assertion was made by respondents so far as economic effects of flooding are
concerned. More than 90 % of respondents believed that they were economically affected one
way or the other. These effects included increased poverty (25.7 %), expenditures on
maintenance and replacement of damaged or lost property (19.3 %) increased in health
expenditures (13.9 %), loss of productive man hours since people could not go to work (7.3 %)
to earn an income, inability to save part of their incomes (9.0 %) or plough back profits to
increase productivity since a lot more expenditures have to be made. Economic activities in the
flood affected areas slowed down (11.6 %) and in some cases, ground to a halt for severely
affected areas. About 5% of the respondents believed there were no negative economic impacts
of flooding on them. These people were those working in the civil service or self-employed with
their businesses located in other parts of the metropolis such as the Central Business District
(CBD). Since their livelihoods are not directly affected, they believed that the floods did not
have direct economic effects on them though they may have experienced it indirectly. Figure 4.6
gives a first-hand impression of economic effects of flooding in the area.

91
 30
25.7
25
Frequency (%)

19.3
20
13.9
15 11.6
9
10 7.3 6.2 5
5 2
0

Economic effects of flood

Figure 4.6: Economic Effects of Floods.

Source: Field survey, 2014.

4.7.4 Effects on physical structures (e.g. housing)

Flood affects the built-environment significantly in the study area. It was observed in the field
that many structures were affected partially (foundations of some buildings exposed, cracks of
walls and floors, leaking roofs e t c.) and completely (broken down walls and floors). Also some
uncompleted buildings and completed ones were abandoned as a result of this annual occurrence.
The main structural effect of floods according to respondents was show clearly in Figure 4.7.

92
 2.4

24.7

Partially broken down

completely broken down
72.9 Others

Figure 4.7: Effects of Floods on Housing.

Source: Field survey, 2014.

4.7.5 Other types of effects

The other types of effects of floods were mainly physical in nature. The flood caused serious
erosion leading to the formation of gullies in some cases. The floods also left the area muddy and
filthy leaving behind some of the load it carried in its rushing waters. It also brought along
reptiles (such as snakes) and worms among others which could harm people living in the
communities along the area. All these observations were made during visits to the affected
communities.

4.8 Coping strategies of residents to floods

The question of how residents were coping with this phenomenon was inevitable for the study.
Only 0.4 % of respondents indicated that some agencies or organizations came to their aid during
the floods through rescue efforts to save lives and property. The remaining 99.6% stated
otherwise with residents devising their own coping strategies to survive during and after the
floods.

93
Coping strategies were examined before, during and after the floods. Before the floods set in, no
efforts are made to clear choked drains (0.0 %) while temporal drains and bridges are constructed
in some cases (14.4 %). About 29.3 % of respondents use sand and stone bags as barriers at the
entrance of their houses to prevent flood waters from entering. Only 0.9 % of respondents just
abandon their homes till the floods subside but 56.3 % of respondents do nothing before the
floods set in. These activities took place before the floods actually occurred.

About 75.1 % of respondents claimed they simply stayed indoors when the floods occurred:
0.9% abandoned their houses for their own safety when the floods actually occurred: 18.7 %
made efforts to safeguard their most valuable properties with the others (1.8 %) climbing up to
the roofs and trees to escape the flood waters. About 1.4 % of respondents simply collected and
threw out water as it entered their homes. Unfortunately, others (2.1 %) were unable to do
anything and just had to bear the brunt of the floods anytime they occurred. This is rather
unfortunate since such people (e.g. the aged and the sick) could easily lose their lives or be
seriously injured.
After the floods, 97.1 % of respondents indicated that they put their homes in order. Those who
abandoned their homes (1.9 %) return and then clean up the place as best as they can. Less than
one percent (0.8 %) of respondents searched for lost properties hoping to find them. Far less than
one percent (0.2 %) of respondents indicated that they sought for funds to undertake repair
works, replacement of lost items and generally, return to normal life. There is generally a lot of
fixing and drying after the floods. Unfortunately, reptiles and other dangerous animals may
remain hiding in homes exposing people to risk of snake bites and other health hazards. The
question then was, how were respondents generally coping with this annual hazard? Table 4.6 is
a summary of the coping strategies adopted by people living in the flood prone areas in the
Tamale Metropolis. Are these strategies sustainable? These strategies are more useful in the short
term. In the long term however, it would be necessary for government to consider putting up
affordable housing to relocate people living in the flood plain of the Metropolis as a lasting
solution to the problem of annual floods.

94
Table 4.6: Strategies adopted to cope with the danger of floods

Coping with the danger of floods Frequency Percentage

Stay with friends and/ or relatives 8 2.2
Build walls/ steps to block the flood waters 177 47
Construct temporary bridges to access our property 54 14.4
Fill sacks with sand stones 110 29.3
Clear choked gutters 0.0 0.0
Other 27 7.1
Total 376 100
Source: Field survey, 2014

4.9 Flood prevention and management

4.9.1 Belief in flood prevention
Only 41.6 % of respondents believe that the incidence of floods which occur annually in the
Tamale Metropolis can be prevented while 58.4 % believe floods cannot be prevented. Those
who believed in flood prevention gave their opinions on how this can be achieved. Table 4.7 is a
summary of suggestions made by respondents on how to prevent flooding in the area.

Table 4.7: Flood Prevention

Flood Prevention Frequency Percentage
Construct defence wall/big drains for the valley 76 20.3
Demolishing of structures on waterways and along the valley 27 7.3
Dredging the valley and natural drains 3 0.8
Clearing choked drains frequently 0 0.0
Stop dumping refuse along and into the valley 18 4.8
Building houses at the right places 24 6.3
Not applicable 220 58.4
Others 8 2.1
Total 376 100
Source: Field survey, 2014.

95
Belief in flood prevention clearly indicated in the table, majority of the respondents making up
58.4 % of respondents claim that floods cannot be prevented in their respective communities of
the zoned areas, because it occurs as a result of nature. About 20.3 % of respondents believed
that a defence wall or a big drain should be constructed in the valley. About 7.3 % believe that
demolishing of structures in water ways and along the valley would help while 0.8 % suggested
that the valley should be dredged. Surprisingly, no one suggested that choked drains be cleared.
About 4.8 % of the respondents also believed that people should stop dumping refuse into and on
the banks of the drains while 6.3 % claimed that houses should be built at the right places to
prevent flooding. It is interesting to note that those making these suggestions were themselves
living very close to the valley or dumping their waste materials into the valley. Thus, most
people seemed to know the right things to be done yet they were not doing them to prevent the
floods from affecting them. This also raised the question of who was responsible for ensuring
that the right things were done.

Table 4.8: Reports made to authorities about annual floods

Flood report to authorities Frequency Percentage

Yes 287 76.2
No 89 23.8
Total 376 100
Source: Field survey, 2014.

From Table 4.8, it can be realized that majority of respondents making up 76.2 % of respondents
had reported to the authorities in charge. Reports had been made mainly to the Assembly man or
Unit committee members of their respective communities with a few people reporting the
problem of flooding in the area to TaMA and NADMO. TaMA sometimes attempted to dredge
materials from the drains which are placed on the banks of the drains. This temporarily raises the
levels of the banks but the sediments are washed again back into the drains.

96
Table 4.9: Flood prevention

Effort at preventing floods Frequency Percentage

Yes 162 43.1
No 214 56.9
Total 376 100
Source: Field survey, 2014.

About 43 % members in the communities claimed that they had made efforts to prevent flooding
in their respective communities by reporting to relevant authorities. They claimed that they
contribute money and do discuss proper means of waste disposal and relocating people living in
the flood prone zones. As indicated in Table 4.9, 56.9 % of respondents had made absolutely no
attempt at flood prevention claiming that there was nobody to talk to since nobody cared about
them and the situation was beyond their control. They also claimed the community layout was
poor with some simply saying that nothing has been done. The reasons given by the latter are
only an attempt to blame everybody else except themselves.

4.10 Role of stakeholders in flood mitigation

Investigations were made in the field to find out the various ways in which the problem of
flooding could be effectively dealt with by the various stakeholders. These stakeholders include
households, the communities, the Tamale Metropolitan Assembly and the Central government.

4.10.1 Households

About 31.7 % of households believed that proper building permits should be sought within the
master plan of the metropolis. About 21.2 % of them suggested that construction of bridges,
drains and walls would help channel the flood waters appropriately to either prevent or reduce
the discharge from the valley. About 19.6 % of the respondents however believed that
households should properly dispose of their waste products; 16.3 % of them believed that choked
drains should be cleared while 7.4 % of respondents claimed that the situation was beyond their
control. This group clearly indicated that buildings constructed in the valley was a major
contributing factor to the problem of flooding since these buildings impede the smooth flow of

97
water, causing the excess river water to overflow onto the adjacent land. Table 4.10 summaries
the views of households about mitigating floods.

Table 4.10: Households views of solving flood problem in the zoned area

Households- views of solving flooding problem Frequency Percentage

Build according to TaMA plan 119 31.7
Construction of gutters/ walls/bridges 80 21.3
Proper disposal of refuse 74 19.6
Clearing of choked drains 62 16.5
It is beyond us (cannot do anything about it) 28 7.4
Others 13 3.5
Total 376 100.0
Source: Field survey, 2014.

4.10.2 Community

About 32.1 % of the respondents believed that communities should ensure that houses are not
built across or close to the valley; 22.6 % suggested proper waste disposal; 15.0 %suggested
sustained educational campaigns about flood mitigation; 10.6 % proposed construction of
defence walls, drains and bridges to reduce the effect of flooding; while 9.2 % of the respondents
believed that communal labour was needed to clean the valley as well as the few drains in the
flood zones so that flood waters flow freely through these respective channels thus improving the
flood situation. Table 4.11 summarises the views of respondents so far as the contribution of the
respective communities to flood mitigation in the Metropolis flood prone zones is concerned.

Table 4.11: Community views about floods mitigation in the area of study

Communities views of floods mitigation Frequency Percentage

Houses should not be built across the valley 121 32.1
Put refuse at designated places 85 22.6
Sustained educational campaign on flood mitigation 56 15.0
Construct defence walls/drains/bridges over the valley 40 10.6
Communal labour to clean drains 35 9.3

98
It is beyond us (cannot do anything about it) 27 7.3
Others 12 3.1
Total 376 100.0
Source: Field survey, 2014.

4.10.3 Tamale Metropolitan Assembly (TaMA)

The Tamale Metropolis is governed by the TaMA whose duties are to ensure proper planning of
land use in the metropolis while ensuring that people are able to live safe and healthy lives.
TaMA must also ensure that proper sanitation is maintained in the metropolis. These are some of
the reasons why various departments under the TaMA have been established to undertake
specific duties thus ensuring that all is well in the metropolis.

Respondents indicated clearly what they expect from TaMA in mitigating floods in the
metropolis. About 48.5 % of respondents believe it is the duty of the TaMA to ensure that proper
roads, drains and bridges are constructed to provide proper channels which are large enough to
carry flood waters away. About 4.9 % claimed that buildings in the waterways should be pulled
down while 17.6 % suggested that proper permits are obtained to encourage proper land use
practices. About 3.0 % said TaMA should relocate those staying on the flood plain with 2.1 %
suggesting a re-planning. Only 0.4 % of the respondents expected TaMA to dredge the drains.
Residents confirmed that the Tamale Metropolitan Assembly had facilitated the dredging of parts
of it some years ago. However, only areas which are closer to the main road were dredged,
leaving other areas even more prone to flooding. Sediments and debris from the valley bed were
excavated and deposited on the banks of the valley, creating some form of levees to help hold
back flood waters. On the other hand, these embankments may be gradually washed back into
the valley during heavy downpour of rain. One very important suggestion made by respondents
was the need for TaMA to provide areas and containers for refuse disposal. Even though this
suggestion was made by only 8.7 % of the respondents, it is a very critical point. This is because
observations made in the field showed that the areas provided with waste disposal bins were
either inappropriate or insufficient. Thus, refuse containers are not emptied often enough and
refuse dumps are overflowing. There is no control and TaMA has looked on as residents dumped
refuse in and along the banks of the valley with others even defecating into it. Proper waste

99
disposal will go a long way to curb the problem of flooding in the affected areas in the
metropolis (Table 4.12).

Table 4.12: Metropolitan assembly views of flood mitigation (suggestion from respondents)

Metropolitan assembly views of flood mitigation Frequency Percentage

Construction of roads, gutters and walls 182 48.5

Ensure proper permits for building houses 66 17.6
Establish designated place for dumping of waste 49 12.9
Provision of dustbins 33 8.7
Pull down houses on water ways 17 4.6
Relocate victims 11 3.0
Restructure/Re-plan the area 8 2.1
Clear choked drains 3 0.9
Dredging the valley 2 0.4
Others 5 1.3
Total 376 100
Source: Field survey, 2014.

4.10.4 Central Government

The Central government is represented by the TaMA. About 43.6 % of respondents believe it is
the duty of the central government to ensure that proper roads, drains and bridges are constructed
to provide proper channels which are large enough to carry flood waters away. About 18.4 %
also believe that the Central government needed to provide sufficient financial and other
resources to relevant department to enable them carry out their mandate well. It must be noted
that it is not unusual for relevant government departments including TaMA to be under-
resourced therefore making it difficult for them to fully discharge their duties. About 11.0 % of
respondents suggested that government’s provision of affordable housing for them to relocate
would be very helpful while 4.9 % of respondents believe that pulling down houses in waterways
would help remedy the situation. Table 4.13 summarises what respondents expect from the
central government in mitigating floods in the Tamale metropolis flood prone zones.

100
Table 4.13: Central Government- views of floods mitigation by residents

Central Government views by respondents Frequency Percentage

Construction of drains, bridges, walls and roads 179 47.6
Provision of Financial and other resources 69 18.4
Relocate us to affordable housing 41 11.0
Redevelop the area 33 8.9
Pull down houses on waterways 18 4.7
Dredging the valley 15 4.0
Bring us relief items 12 3.1
Others 9 2.3
Total 376 100
Source: Field work, 2014.

4.11 Institutional perspectives on floods in the zoned area

4.11.1 Town and Country Planning Department (TCPD)

According to the TCPD, their functions include the formulation of long term comprehensive
plans technically referred to as strategic plan, preparation of land use planning schemes to guide
spatial development which is done through revision of planning schemes, re-zoning, rectification
of planning schemes and regularizing of layouts. They also perform the functions of
development management or control, development promotion and research into emerging land
use problems in the metropolis as well as the provision of advice to the Metropolitan Assembly.
The department played its role in flood control and prevention in the flood prone zones. They
indicated that they relied on maps from the Survey department which showed the topography of
the metropolis, indicating the high and the low points. There are some areas earmarked as nature
reserves. The nature reserve is made up of vegetative cover which would protect the water
bodies. The department indicated that it was not their duty to ensure enforcement of these plans.
They were aware of a project by city authorities to provide proper drains to channel the flood
water in the valley. They collaborated with agencies such as the Lands Commission, Survey
Department, TaMA, Utility companies and even the citizenry including land owners and chiefs
when developing land use maps. Unfortunately, they were not satisfied with the level of

101
collaboration because a lot of land owners and chiefs do not abide by the zoning plans when
developing their pieces of lands.

The TCPD indicated that they were poorly resourced financially and had only two professionals
and four technical assistant planners serving the 3 sub metros of the TaMA. Ideally, the number
should be about 9. They had no computers for the use of modern software such as the
Geographic Information Systems (GIS). There is also only one vehicle which is always not in
good working condition. They indicated also the Act 462 which the department was governed by
was inadequate. In an attempt to help itself, they tried to generate funds internally by charging a
fee for their services but monies generated ended in the central government account and could
not be accessed. Building plans and other records were not well kept simply because there was no
place to keep them. There were also no current copies of plans or even soft copies of them to
ensure easy access. The TCPD blamed the human behaviour and non-enforcement of settlement
rules as the causes of the floods in TaMA. Removal of vegetation cover increased erosion and
sediment deposition during floods.

4.11.2 Metropolitan Waste Management Department (MWMD), Tamale

According to the mission statement of the MWMD, the department is ‘to keep the Metropolis
clean and healthy by ensuring the efficient and effective removal and safe disposal of solid and
liquid waste from all premises and public spaces to create an enabling environment for
development and recreation’. The functions of the MWMD are as follows:

 Keep the metropolis tidy

 Clear away mess and nuisance
 Develop and continuously update a metropolitan environmental sanitation plan
 Educate the public on how to keep the local environment clean
 Provide conveniently situated refuse disposal points
 Remove solid waste
 Dispose of waste safely
 Identify needs for public toilets
 Manage public toilets
 Manage promotion and subsidy programs for household toilets

102
  Evacuate liquid waste from homes and public toilets
 License and enforce standards on private liquid waste hauliers
 Manage sullage disposal
 Cleanse and carry out routine maintenance of drains.

The question therefore is why waste disposal is such a major problem in the metropolis and why
do people dump refuse indiscriminately and choke the river and other drains in the process? The
MWMD has no special regulations to control activities in flood prone areas but believe that
improper waste disposal activities are responsible for the annual floods in the metropolis
although it is not the only cause. The department was however aware of projects aimed at
reducing the incidence of flooding in the metropolis river basin which included the construction
of storm drains from the Gariba lodge through Gumani to reduce flooding.

MWMD had also taken specific action to prevent flooding in the metropolis river basin. Granted

that improper waste disposal was a major cause, the metropolis’ city-wide Waste Collection levy

scheme was launched. People were supposed to pay for waste collection. Ten Ghana pesewas per

head load was charged for communal collection and three to five Ghana cedis charged monthly

for house to house collection. Those in the river basin usually accessed the former but only very

few people paid. The majority preferred dumping their waste free of charge into the river channel

instead. The department indicated that it was NADMO’s duty so far as flood management in the

metropolis was concerned and so they played no role in that. MWMD also blamed human

behaviour and non-compliance with sanitation rules as major causes of flooding in the

metropolis.

4.11.3 National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO), Tamale

Among the functions of NADMO are to coordinate activities of all stakeholders in disaster
management and educate the public on prevention of man-made disasters. The department did
not have any special policies or activities for flood prone areas including the study area and also
had financial, logistics and equipment as well as legal challenges which the TaMA had tried to

103
solve but to no avail. NADMO believed that pollution of the Metropolis flood prone zones was
the main cause of flooding and so people should stop dumping refuse into the river. However
NADMO did not have any sustained public education programmes on flood mitigation.
NADMO is also under-resourced by central government and located in a poorly maintained
office accommodation with a computer and very poor database on disaster-related activities in
the metropolis.

4.11.4 Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMA), Tamale

The functions of the GMA include observation of the weather, compilation of meteorological
information observed, analysis of data based on which forecasting is done and serving the
general public, i.e. providing information/data to all who need it e.g. farmers, contractors,
shippers, etc. The agency had no special schemes or regulation for flood control in flood prone
areas but believed that giving prior warning of heavy rainfall alerted people and relevant
agencies as NADMO to prepare for the floods. To help manage floods in the metropolis, the
GMA meets with NADMO periodically to discuss weather-related issues; especially forecasting
extreme weather events and the need to alert the public to that effect: usually took place before
the rainy and dry seasons respectively. The GMA is also agreed that human behaviour and non-
compliance with settlement rules were the causes of the flood in the metropolis.

104
 CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Conclutions

5.1.1. Causes of flooding

It is clear that flooding is indeed a phenomenon that occurs annually in the Metropolis. This
would not have been a problem if the flood plains around the river were uninhabited. Another
major cause of flooding identified is the indiscriminate dumping of refuse into and on the banks
of the river. This impedes the free flow of water resulting in the inundation of its flood plain.

Climate change on the other hand has led to increases in average temperature and rainfall over
the last twenty-seven years. Even though there is a positive relationship between rise in
temperature and increased rainfall, this relationship is not very strong. This means that though
climate change is one of the factors which cause heavy rainfall and hence flooding in the
Metropolis, other factors also play a significant role.

Another cause of flooding which was discovered in the Metropolis is the building of all sorts of
structures, from mosques to houses and business structures very close to the river. Thus, the
flood plains of the Metropolis which have been zoned as a nature reserve has been occupied
depriving the river of the protection of vegetation which would slow down erosion and the
consequent siltation of the river. The inactions of institutions responsible for controlling land use
have also been a major contributing factor to the incidence of flooding in the Metropolis flood
prone zones. Even though the laws are there, the institutions are unable to enforce them.

5.1.2 Impacts of flooding

The impacts of flooding are both natural and man-made in nature. The people of Sogunayili,
Gbalo, Jisonayili, Gumani, and Fuo have suffered a lot from the annual floods in their respective
communities.

Natural impacts of flooding: The natural impacts of flooding include erosion caused by the
flood waters. Observations made in the field showed deep gullies created by the running water.
Thus, the physical nature of the land is continually altered. The top soils are being washed away
and this has led to the exposure of the foundations of some buildings in the area. There were also

105
partial submergence leading to the cracking of walls and floors of buildings. These structural
defects on buildings have led to some affected people abandoning their buildings. All these
affect the economic activities of residents. A lot of vulnerable people especially children and the
aged are traumatised by these flooding events leading to the separation of family units in some
cases since children may have to stay with friends and relations during incidence of floods. A lot
of people also live in fear because their buildings are so damaged that they could cave in on them
any time.

Man-made impacts of flooding: Man-made impacts arise due to the fact that people chose to
live in the flood-prone areas. Residents modify buildings to cope with the floods. Walls and steps
are erected to protect buildings and the people living in them. By virtue of the fact that people
inappropriately live in the flood plain of the river, the socio economic challenges associated with
the pre, during and post-flood events are obvious. Some respondents indicated that they often
have to borrow money to cope with the situation. Others claim that their businesses are affected
while some are unable to report to work during the floods.

5.1.3 The role of the relevant institutions

Institutions are generally under-resourced especially the Town and Country Planning Department
and the National Disaster Management Organisation. They are simply unable to work effectively
in the Metropolis flood prone zones. This has led to the persistence of the problem. Even though
the area around the river has been zoned as a nature reserve, people have put up all sorts of
structures and continue to dump refuse with impunity. Unfortunately, the authorities concerned
are not enforcing the law as they should. Efforts to dredge the drainage channel and clean it up
have all proved futile because after these activities, people just go back to create the same
problem exacerbating the flooding problem as time goes on.

5.1.4 Short term mitigation measures

In the short term, the central government should make conscious effort to provide adequate
funding to the relevant institutions to be able to perform their duties. For example, the MWMD
should be enabled to properly collect and dispose of waste in the study area.

106
The laws protecting lives as well as the environment must also be enforced and those who break
them appropriately punished to serve as a deterrent to others. If this is done, people will stop
building in the nature reserve in the river basin and also make a conscious effort to properly
dispose of their waste. Regular and effective removal of refuse from the river basin is essential in
solving the flooding problem. Lastly, well designed drains which are wider and deeper should be
constructed to properly channel the river’s discharge through the city. Regular de-silting of the
river would be very helpful in checking the flooding problem.

5.1.5 Long term mitigation measures

In the long term, the TaMA should develop a programme to gradually and effectively pull down
buildings and relocate residents in the river basin especially those in the nature reserve. This
should be based on a well thought-out programme. This is because people may need to be
compensated and the alternatives provided should be adequate in order not to make life difficult
for people. As the relocation takes place, the nature reserve should be gradually re-developed by
tree planting and maintenance of these plants. If this is done, the nature reserve will be put in
place in the long run and the place can be used as a recreational park while still protecting the
river.

The destruction associated with the flood in the Tamale metropolis is largely man-made because
of the refusal of the people to comply with settlement rules. Surprisingly, even those affected
rather blame the authorities for doing nothing to help them. Observation of simple sanitation
rules in waste disposal is also key to mitigating the floods, but human attitudes are not changing
despite warnings. The need for relevant government agencies to engage in sustained public
education on flood mitigation cannot be over-emphasised.

5.2 Recommendations

Further studies could concentrate on a more quantitative assessment of the flood damage in
TaMA. This should include the cost of the loss of productivity, the cost of repainting damaged
infrastructure, the cost of disruption of social services such as education, health, water and
telecommunications, the cost of treating health-related issues etc.

107
 Reference

Abhas K. J., Bloch R. and Lamond J., (2011). Cities and Flooding, A Guide To Integrated
Urban Flood Risk Management For The 21st Century.

Action Aid, (2006). Climate Change, Urban Flooding and the Rights of the Urban Poor In
Africa. Key Finding from Six African Cities, A Report by Action Aid October 2006. Available at
http://216.219.73.118/docs/urban%20flooding %20africa%20report.pdf

ADPC and UNDP (Asian Disaster Preparedness Center and United Nations Development
Programme)., (2005). Integrated fl ood risk management in Asia. Bangkok: ADPC and UNDP.
http://www.adpc.net/maininforesource/udrm/fl oodprimer.pdf.

Ahern, M., Kovats, R.M., Wilkinson, P., Few, R. and Matthies, F., (2005). “Global Health
Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence.” Epidemiological Review 27(1): 36-46.

Ahern, M. and Kovats, S. (2006). “The Health Impact of Floods.” In Flood Hazards and Health:
Responding to Present and Future Risks, ed. Few, R. and Matthies, F. London: Earthscan.

Alirol E, Sharma S. K, Bawaskar HS, Kuch U, Chappuis F., (2010) Snake Bite in South Asia: A
Review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 4(1): e603. doi:10.1371/journal. pntd.0000603

Amenuveve, V. (2010) “Northern Floods Claim 17 Lives: But Residents Still Adamant” Daily
Graphic, Monday, 13, September, 2010 Issue No. 18329 pp 3

Andjelkovic, I., (2001). “Guidelines on Non-Structural Measures in Urban Flood Management.”

UNESCO, IHP-V | Technical Documents in Hydrology, No. 50, UNESCO, Paris.

Askew A. J., (1999). Water in the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. In:
Leavesley et al (Eds) Destructive Water : Water-caused Natural Disaster, their Abatement and
Control. IAHS Publication No.239.

Ayoade, J. O., (1988). Tropical Hydrology and Water Resources. Macmillan Publishers Limited,
London.

Bartlett, S., (2008) “Climate change and urban children: impacts and implications for adaptation
in low and middle-income countries.” Environment and Urbanization 20 (2): 501-19.

Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Wu, S. and Palutikof, J.P., ed., (2008). “Climate change and
water.” Technical paper VI of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, IPCC.

Bicknell J., Dodman D. and Satterthwaite D., (2009). Adapting Cities to Climate Change:
Understanding and Addressing the Development Challenges. London and Sterling, VA:
Earthscan.

108
Buchanan-Smith and Maxwell, S., (1994) “Linking Relief and Development: An Introduction
and Overview” in IDS Bulletin: Special Issue on Linking Relief and Development 25, No.3,
Bradford, UK: Institute of Development Studies.

Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.-
T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C.G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A.
Sarr and P. Whetton, (2007). “Regional Climate Projections.” In Climate Change 2007: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M.
Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA:
Cambridge University Press.

Corfee-Morlot, J., Kamal-Chaoui, L., Donovan, M.G., Cochran, I., Robert, A. and Teasdale, P-J.,
(2009). “Cities, Climate Change and Multilevel Governance.” OECD Environmental Working
Papers N° 14, OECD.

Cohen, B. 2004, Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a
Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts. Washington, DC: National Research Council.

CPNI (Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure). (2010). “Glossary of terms.”
London: CPNI.

Curtis A. and Mills J. W., (2010).GIS, Human Geography and Disasters, Cognella, University
Readers, Inc. USA

CWIQ (2003) Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire Survey, Ghana Northern Region Districts
Summary Flyer No. 18

Defra, (2010). UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) index. Last updated April 30, 2010.
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/601/690/.

Dinicola, K., (1996). The “100-Year Flood - USGS fact sheet 229-96.” US Geological Survey
(USGS), Last Modifi ed 22 August 2005. Accessed 11 March 2011. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/FS-
229-96/pdf/FS_229-96.pdf.

Dodman, D., (2009). “Blaming cities for climate change? An analysis of urban greenhouse gas
emissions inventories.”Environment and Urbanization 21 (1): 185-201.

Du, W., Fitzgerald, G., Clark, M. and Hou, X. 2010. Health impacts of floods. Prehospital and
Disaster Medicine 25: 265-72.

Few R., Ahern M., Matthies F. and Kovats S., (2004). “Floods, health and climatic change, a
strategic review.” Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 63, Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change, Norwich.

109
Foster, S. S. D., Hirata, R., Gomes, D., D’Elia, M. and Paris, M., (2002). Groundwater quality
protection: a guide for water utilities, municipal authorities and environment agencies.
Washington, DC: World Bank.

Füssel, H. M., (2009). “An updated assessment of the risks from climate change based on
research published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.” Climatic Change 97 (3): 469-82.

Geology Labs (2008). On-line: What is Flooding, accessed on 13th November, 2008 (13:30hrs)
from http://www.mountain.org/education/multimedia/novag02a.cfm

GFDRR., (2010). “Pakistan 2010 PDNA estimated flood impacts at $10 Billion.” PDNA at a
glance. http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/node/325.

Ghana Districts.Com (2006) “Northern Region” http://www.ghanadistricts.com/region/?r=6

Accessed 20.04.10

Ghana Statistical Service, (2000), Census Reports on Population, Household and sex statistics of
Tamale Metropolitan Area, Tamale, Ghana.

Ghana Statistical Service (2005) “2000 Population and Housing Census: Analysis of District
Data and Implications for Economic Planning, Northern Region” Accra.

Ghana Statistical Service, (2010), Census Reports on Population and Houses, Ghana.

GOY (Government of Yemen). (2009). “Damage, Losses and Need Assessment: October 2008
Tropical Storm and Floods, Hadramout and Al-Mahara, Republic of Yemen.” GOY.

Gurenko, E. and Lester, R., (2004). “Rapid Onset Natural Disasters: The role of financing in
effective risk management.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3278, World Bank,
Washington, DC.

Hall, J. W. and Solomatine, D., (2008). “A framework for uncertainty analysis in flood risk
management decisions.” International Journal of River Basin Management 6 (2): 85–98.

Hollis, G. E., (1975). “The effect of urbanization on floods of different recurrence interval.”
Water Resour. Res., 11: 431-5.

Hualou L., (2011). Disaster Prevention and Management: A geographical Perspective. Disaster
Advances 4(1) January 2011.

IFRC (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies). (2010) “World
disasters report: focus on urban risk.” IFRC.

110
Indepth Africa (2010) “Ghana: Floods Kill 2, Displace 25,000 others in Central Gonja”
http://indepthafrica.com/news/westafrica/ghana-floods-kill-2-displace-25000-others-in-central-
gonja/ Accessed 09.01.11

Ingirige, B. and Wedawatta, G., (2011). Impacts of fl ood hazards on small and medium sized
companies. In Flood Hazards: Impacts and Responses for the Built Environment, ed Lamond, J.,
Booth, C., Hammond, F. and Proverbs, Florida: CRC Press.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), (2007). “Summary for Policymakers

Emissions Scenarios – Special Report.” Geneva: IPCC.
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0.

IPCC, (2011). “Summary for Policymakers. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation, ed. Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L.,
Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

IRIN, (2009). “Philippines: Flood victims grapple with Leptospirosis.” UNOCHA news service:
October 28, 2009. http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=86779.

Jha, A. K. and Brecht H., (2011). “Building Urban Resilience in East Asia. An Eye on East Asia
and Pacifi c. East Asia and Pacifi c. Economic Management and Poverty Reduction. No 8.”
Washington, DC: World Bank.

Jonkman, S.N. and Kelman, I., (2005). “An Analysis of the Causes and Circumstances of Flood
Disaster Deaths.” Disasters 29 (1): 75-97.

Kamal-Chaoui L. and Robert A. ed. (2009). Competitive Cities and Climate Change. OECD
Regional Development Working Papers No. 2, OECD publishing.

Kates, R. W., Colten C. E., Laska S., Leatherman S. P., (2006). “Reconstruction of New Orleans
after Hurricane Katrina: A Research Perspective.” Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences. 103 (40): 14653-60.

Kim, C.-K., (2010). “The Effects of Natural Disasters on Long-Run Economic Growth.” The
Michigan Journal of Business 41: 15-49.

Kӧtter T., (2003). Prevention of Environmental Disasters by Spatial Planning and Land
Management.TS13.1 2nd FIG Regional Conference Marrakech, Morocco, December 2-5,2003.

Kreibich, H., Piroth, K., Seifert, I., Maiwald, H., Kunert, U., Schwarz, J., Merz, B., and Thieken,
A. H., (2009). “Is fl ow velocity a significant parameter in flood damage modeling?” Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9: 1679-1692.

111
Kunateh M. A., (2009). “Floods displace 0ver 121,000 people in Northern Ghana”. A
Ghana.com report of September 28, 2009 www.ghana.com Access18.04.10

Kunii, O., S. Nakamura, R. Abdur and Wakai S., (2002). “The impact on health and risk factors
of the diarrhoea epidemics in the 1998 Bangladesh floods.” Public Health 116: 68-74.

Larson, L.W., 1993. “The Great Midwest Flood of 1993.” Natural Disaster Survey Report.
Kansas City, MO: National Weather Service.

Loayza, N., Olaberria, E., Rigolini, J. and Christensen L., (2009). “Natural disasters and growth:
going beyond the averages.” Policy Research Working Paper 4980, World Bank. Washington,
DC.

Mason V, Andrews H and Upton D., (2010) ‘The psychological impact of exposure to floods’,
article in ‘Psychology, Health & Medicine’, 15: 1, 61-73.

Merz, B., Hall, J., Disse M. and Schumann, A., (2010). “Fluvial flood risk management in a
changing world.” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 10: 509-27. Min, S.K., Zhang, X.,
Zwiers, F.W. and Hegerl, G. C., 2011. “Human contribution to more-intense precipitation
extremes.” Nature 470: 378-81.

Miller G. 2005. “The tsunami’s psychological aftermath.” Science 309: 1030.

Min, S.K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F.W. and Hegerl G. C., (2011). “Human contribution to more-
intense precipitation extremes.” Nature 470: 378-81.

National Weather Service Manual 10-950, April 26, (2006)

Nicholls, R.J., Hanson, S., Herweijer, C., Patmore, N., Hallegatte, S., Corfee-Morlot, J., Chateau,
J. and Muir Wood, R. (2007a). “Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerabilty to
climate extremes: Exposure estimates.” OECD Environment Working Paper 1, ENV/WKP
(2007) 1. Paris: OEDC.

Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P.P., Burkett, V., Codignotto, J., Hay, J., McLean, R., Ragoonaden, S, and
Woodroffe, C. D., (2007b). “Coastal systems and low-lying areas.” In Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. M.L. Parry, O.F.
Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press. 315-56.

Noji, E. K., (2005). “Indian Ocean tsunami. Public health issues in disasters.” Crit Care Med. 33
(1 Suppl): S29–33.

Noy, I. 2009 .“The macroeconomic consequences of disasters.” Journal of development

economics88: 221-31.

112
OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). (2009). “Integrating Climate
Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policy Guidance.” OECD.

Pall, P., Aina, T., Stone, D. A., Stott, P.A., Nozawa, T., Hilberts A. G. J., Lohmann D. and Allen
M. R., (2011). “Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to fl ood risk in England and Wales
in autumn 2000.” Nature 470: 382-85.

Pandey Okazaki, (2005) “Community Based Disaster Management: Empowering Communities

to cope with Disaster Risk” United Nation Centre for Regional Development, Japan.
www.tamarackcommunity.ca/g3s86.html Accessed 19.04.10

Parnell S., Simon D., and Vogel C., (2007). “Global environmental change: conceptualizing the
growing challenge for cities in poor countries.” Area 39 (3): 357-69.

Parry M., Arnell N., Berry P., Dodman D., Fankhauser S., Hope C., Kovats S., Nicholls R.,
Satterthwaite D., Tiffi n R., Wheeler T., 2009. Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate
change. A review of the UNFCCC and other recent estimates. London: IIED (International
Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institute for Climate Change).

Peduzzi. P.and Ruiz P., (2005). “ The Environmental Times; Identifying Human Vulnerability”
UNEP/GRID-Arendal
http://www.environmenttimes.net/edition.cfm?pageID=I&groundID2&class=8
Accessed:01.11.09.pp66

Peliga-Ba K. B., (2000). Analysis of Stable Isotope Contents of Surface and Underground Water
in Two Main Geological Formations in the Northern Region of Ghana

Pittock, J. and Xu, M. ( 2011). “World Resources Report Case Study. Controlling Yangtze River
Floods: A new Approach.” Washington, DC: World Resources Report.
http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/files/wrr/wrr_case_Study_controlling_yangtze_river_flood
s.pdf.

Ranger, N., Millner, A., Dietz, S., Fankhauser, S., Lopez, A. and Rura, G. 2010. “Adaptation in
the UK: a decision-making process (Policy Brief).” London: Centre for Climate Change
Economics and Policy. http://personal.lse.ac.uk/RANGERN/PB-adaptationUK-
rangeretal.pdf.Sanarathne P. C.,Dahanayake K. and Perera S. J., (2002). Learning to live with
Floods, Natural Hazards and Disasters

Satterthwaite D., (2011). “How urban societies can adapt to resource shortage and climate
change.” Phil Trans R Soc A 369: 1762-83.

Satterthwaite D., Huq, S., Pelling, M., Reid H. and Romero Lankao P., (2007). “Adapting to
Climate Change in Urban Areas. The possibilities and constraints in low- and middle-income

113
nations.” IIED Human Settlements Discussion Paper Series, IIED (International Institute for
Environment and Development), London.

Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, R. B. Alley, T. Berntsen, N.L. Bindoff, Z. Chen, A.

Chidthaisong, J.M. Gregory, G.C. Hegerl, M. Heimann, B. Hewitson, B.J. Hoskins, F. Joos, J.
Jouzel, V. Kattsov, U. Lohmann, T. Matsuno, M. Molina, N. Nicholls, J. Overpeck, G. Raga, V.
Ramaswamy, J. Ren, M. Rusticucci, R. Somerville, T.F. Stocker, P. Whetton, R.A. Wood and
Wratt D., (2007). “Climate Change the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group
1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”
Cambridge, UK and New York, USA. Cambridge University Press.

Skidmore, M., and Toya, H., (2002). “ Do natural disasters promote long run growth.” Economic
Enquiry 40 (4): 664-87.

Stone D. A., (2008). “Predicted climate changes for the years to come andimplications for
disease impact studies.” Revue Scientifi que et Technique – Offi ceinternational des epizooties
27(2): 319-30.

Stott, P. A., Stone D. A., & Allen M. R., 2004. “Human contribution to the European heatwave
of 2003.” Nature 432: 610–4.

Tamale Metropolitan Assembly Northern Region of Ghana (2012)

Town and Country Planning Department, Tamale Northern Region of Ghana (2014).

Trenberth K. E., P. D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F.

Rahimzadeh, J. A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci, B. Soden and Zhai P., (2007). “Observations:
Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change.” In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M.
Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
Cambridge University Press.

UNISDR (2004). (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). “Guidelines
for Reducing Flood Losses.” Geneva: UNISDR. http://www.unisdr. org/fi
les/5353_PR200402WWD.pdf.

USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). (1988). Tests of Materials and Systems for Flood
Proofing Structures. Washington, DC: Army Corps of Engineers.

UNDHA (United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs). (1992). Internationally Agreed

Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management. Geneva: UNDHA.

UN-HABITAT. (1996). An Urbanizing World: Global Report on Human Settlements 1996.

Oxford: Oxford University Press.
114
UN-HABITAT, (2008). State of the World’s Cities 2008/2009: Harmonious Cities. London and
Sterling, VA: Earthscan,

UNEP, (2007) “Global Environmental Outlook, GE04: Environment for Development”. United
Nation Environmental Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. Pp 60-68, 370.

UN-International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2009). “Reducing Disaster Riks through
Science: Isssues and Actions and The Full Report of ISDR Scientific and Technical Committee
2009”. Available at www.preventionweb.net/globalplatform/2009/background/documents
(accessed 16 oct. 2011).

USA`Today, (2005). September 9, “Floods can cause damage to structure,” page 3B

WDR (World Development Report), (2010). Development and Climate Change. Washington,
DC: World Bank.

Weir R., (2009). Mapping and Analysis of the Resilience of the Food Supply chain in Scotland.
Glengarnock: AEA Technologies for the Scottish Government.

Wenk, D. (2004). “Is ‘good enough’ storage good enough for compliance?” Disaster Recovery
Journal 17 (1): 1-3.

WFP (2010). “Emergency Food Assistance to Flood-Affected Populations in Northern

Ghana”http://www.wfp.org/content/emergency-food-assistance-flood-affected-populations-
northern-ghana Accessed 19.04.10

Working Group on Climate Change and Development, (2009). “Other worlds are possible:
Human progress in an age of climate change. The sixth report from the Working Group on
Climate Change and Development.” NEF (New Economics Foundation).

Wheater, H. and Evans E., (2009). “Land use, water management and future flood risk.” Land
Use Policy, 26: S251-S264.

World Bank, (2008). Climate Resilient Cities: 2008 Primer Reducing Vulnerabilities to Climate
Change Impacts and Strengthening Disaster Risk Management in East Asian Cities. Washington,
DC: World Bank, FGDRR and UNISDR.

World Bank and The United Nations. (2010). Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters: the
economics of effective prevention. Washington, DC: World Bank.

World Disaster Report (2002) “Focus on Reducing Risk” http:/www.org/publicat/wdr2002/

Accessed 22.04.10

World Health Organization, (2002). “Reducing Risks Promoting Healthy life”. World Health
Report, WHO, Geneva.

115
World Meteorological Organization, (2009). “Statement on the status of the global climate in
2009”. World Meteorological Organization Report no 1055. Geneva WMO. 14

World Meteorological Organization, (1999). Comprehensive Risk Assessment For Natural

Hazards - WMO/TD no 955. Geneva: WMO.

116
 APPENDIX 1

Calculation of sample size

Calculating Sample Size:

n = N / 1+ N (α²)

where n = sample size

N = sample frame = 6488

α = Standard Error = 5% = 0.05

n = 6488 / 1+ 6488 (0.05²)

= 375.7712

Calculation for stratified sampling:

Total sample size / Total number of households.

375.7712/6488 = 0.0579

Sample from each community:

0.0579× total number of households in the community

Sogunayili: 0.0579× 119 = 7

Gbolo: 0.0579× 56 = 3

Jisonayili: 0.0579× 2802 = 22

117
Gumani: 0.0579× 33345 = 337

Fuo: 0.0579×110= 6

118
 APPENDIX 2

Calculation of Standard deviation for rainfall

Standard Deviation = X - x

x=ΣX∕N

Where X = Total Annual rainfall

and x = Mean total rainfall

N = total number of years.

Calculating mean annual rainfall:

x=ΣX∕N

Σ X = 29542.2

N = 27

Therefore,

x = 29542.2 ∕ 27

= 1094.2

119
 APPENDIX 3

Calculating Standard Deviation for various years is presented in the table below;

Table 14: Annual mean rainfall (mm) and deviations from mean (mm) for 27 years

Year Annual mean rainfall (mm) Deviation from mean (mm)

1987 956.9 -137.3

1988 1139.9 45.7

1989 1427.3 333.1

1990 1129.8 35.6

1991 1579.8 485.6

1992 695.3 -398.9

1993 1000.5 -93.7

1994 1158.8 64.6

1995 996.1 -98.1

1995 1150.7 56.5

1997 1228.9 134.7

1998 937 -157.2

1999 1382.3 288.1

2000 1024 -70.2

2001 791.3 -302.9

2002 563.3 -530.9

2003 1269.3 175.1

2004 1067.9 -26.3

120
2005 1141.3 47.1

2006 921.5 -172.7

2007 1046.6 -47.6

2008 1470.2 -24

2009 1103.3 9.1

2010 1306.8 212.6

2011 1082.4 -11.8

2012 1062.2 -32

2013 908.8 -185.4

Total 29542.2 -401.2

Source: Meteorological Agency, Tamale (2014).

600
485.6

400 333.1
288.1
212.6
175.1
Rainfall amount (mm)

200 134.7
45.7 64.6 56.5 47.1
35.6
9.1
0
2010
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

2011
2012
-26.3 -47.6-24
-11.8-32 2013
-93.7 -70.2
-98.1
-200 -137.3 -157.2 -172.7 -185.4

-302.9
-400
-398.9

-600 -530.9
Year

Figure 8: Graph showing deviations from annual mean rainfall (1987-2013)

Source: Field work, 2014.

121
 APPENDIX 4

Calculation of Standard deviations for temperature

Standard Deviation = X - x

x=ΣX∕N

Where X = Total mean annual temperature

x = Mean total temperature

N = total number of years.

Calculating mean annual rainfall:

x=ΣX∕N

Σ X = 775.7

N = 27

Therefore,

x = 775.7∕ 27

= 28.73⁰C

122
 APPENDIX 5

Calculating Standard Deviation from 1978 – 2013 is presented in the table below

Table 15: Annual mean temperature (⁰C) and deviations from mean (⁰C) for 27 years

Years Annual mean Temperature (⁰C) Deviation from mean (⁰C)

1987 28.56 -0.17

1988 28.43 -0.3

1989 27.84 -0.89

1990 28.78 0.05

1991 28.37 -0.36

1992 28.49 -0.24

1993 28.71 -0.02

1994 28.72 -0.01

1995 28.5 -0.23

1996 28.59 -0.14

1997 28.41 -0.32

1998 29.17 0.44

1999 28.64 -0.09

2000 28.68 -0.05

2001 28.84 0.11

2002 29.56 0.83

2003 28.58 -0.15

123
2004 28.45 -0.28

2005 28.85 0.12

2006 29.15 0.42

2007 28.93 0.2

2008 28.15 -0.58

2009 28.8 0.07

2010 29 0.73

2011 29.39 0.66

2012 29.02 0.29

2013 29.09 0.36

Total 775.7

Source: Meteorological Agency, Tamale (2014).

0.8

0.6

0.4
Temperature (℃)

0.2

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1
Year

Figure 9: Graph showing deviations from total annual mean temperature (⁰C) for 27 years

Source: Field work, 2014.

124
 COLLAGE OF ENGINEERING

KWAME NKRUMAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

QUESTIONNAIR ON IMPACT OF FLOODING ON SOCIAL SERVICES IN THE TAMALE

METROPOLIS OF GHANA

This research aims mainly at investigating the causes of flooding in the Tamale low land basin
and the effects as a hazard on life, property and socio-economic activities of residents. It also
aims at suggesting recommendations to remedy the problem.

This questionnaire is design to gather Information sole for academic purpose. I assure you that
your identity and the information you provide will be treated with utmost confidentiality.

Kindly fill in the gaps and tick in the boxes with the most appropriate response(s). Thank you.

HOUSEHOLD QUESTIONNAIRE

1. (a) Name of Respondent:

………………………………………………………………………………………

(b) Sex: Male [ ] Female [ ]

(c) Age: .............................

(d) Ethnicity: ……………………………………..

(e) Household status………………………………

(f) Occupation: ……………………………………

(g) Educational attainment: (i) Primary [ ] (ii) Secondary [ ] (iii) Tertiary [ ]

(iv) None [ ]

(g) Length of stay in the community (i) 0 – 5 years [ ] (ii) 6 – 10 years [ ]

(iii) 11 – 15 years [ ] (iv) 16 – 20 years [ ] (v) Above 20 years [ ]

125
(h) Residential status: Free occupant [ ] Tenant [ ] Owner-occupant [ ]

2. Has your household experienced flooding before?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

3. If yes, why do you still live here?

a. proximity to work [ ]

b. affordability of housing [ ]

c. did not face problems before [ ]

d. other [ ] , specify ..............................

4. What do you think are the causes of these floods?

Building in water courses [ ] Bad refuse Disposal [ ] Building Designs [ ]

Hard Landscaping [ ] Lack of Drains [ ] Poor design of Drains [ ]

Choked drains [ ], low lying nature of relief [ ], other [ ],

Specify …………............………………

5. Are you willing to move out of this area in view of the floods?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

6. How often do floods occur in this area?

Once a year [ ] Twice a year [ ] Several times a year [ ]

7. When do floods occur during the year? ...........................................................

8. How long do the floods usually last?

(i) .........Hours (ii) .......Days (iii) ........Weeks (iv)...........Months

(v) Other [ ], specify.................................................................................................................

126
9. Which agency (ies) or organization (s) comes to your aid during the floods?

a. National Disaster Management Organization (NADMO) [ ]

b. Tamale metro [ ]

c. Tamale Sub-metro [ ]

d. None [ ]

d. Other [ ], specify......................................................................................

10. What did they do to help?

a. Provision of relief items (food, building materials, blankets, medicine, etc) [ ]

b. Rescue Effort [ ]

c. Other [ ], specify..................................................................................

11. Do you think the procedures involved in locating any activity (land use) on land in this
area/community are followed?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

12. How do you dispose of waste in this area?

(i) Public Dump [ ] (ii) Door to Door [ ] (iii) Dumping in the valley [ ]
(iv) Dumping at the banks of the valley [ ] (v) Burning [ ] (vi) Burying [ ]

(vii) Others [ ] specify....................…………………………………………

13. How much do you pay to dispose of waste in this area?

(i) 0 – 0.99 Ghana cedi [ ]

(ii) 1 – 1.99 Ghana cedis [ ]

(iii) 2 – 2.99 Ghana cedis [ ]

(iv) Above 3 Ghana cedis [ ]

127
(v) Nothing [ ]

14. How often do you pay this levy to enjoy the service and properly dispose of your waste?

a. Daily [ ]

b. Weekly [ ]

c. Monthly [ ]

d. Other [ ], specify..............................................................................

15. What do you do when the floods occur?

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

16. In what ways are you affected by the floods?

(i) Social (Education, Health etc)

………………………………………………………………………................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

(ii) Property Damage

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

............................................................................................................................................................

(iii) Economically

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

……....................................................................................................................................................

(iv) Housing (structure)

128
……………………………………………………………………………………............................

............................................................................................................................................................

(v) Others (specify)

……………………………………………………………………………………………………....

............................................................................................................................................................

17. Do you think these floods can be prevented?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

18. If yes, how can these be achieved?

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

19. Have the members of this community made any efforts to prevent flooding?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

20. Give reasons for your answer.

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

21. What do you do before the floods set in?

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

129
22. What do you do when the floods actually occur?

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

23. How do you cope with the danger of incidence of annual flooding in your area?

(i) Stay with friends and/or relatives [ ]

(ii) Build walls/steps to block the flood waters [ ]

(iii) Construct temporary bridges to access our property [ ]

(iv) Construct temporary drains [ ]

(v) Clear choked gutters [ ]

(vii) We just hope and pray the floods do not occur [ ]

(viii) Other [ ], specify......................................................................................................................

24. What do you do after the floods?

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

25. Do you usually report the incidence of flooding any authority?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

26. If yes, which authorities did you report to?

(a) Tamale metro [ ]

(b) Tamale sub-metro [ ]

(c) Chief Palace [ ]

130
(d) Assemblyman/Unit Committee Member [ ]

(e) Other [ ] specify........................................................................................

27. Are you aware of the city authorities’ (TaMA) efforts to solve this problem?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

28. If yes, what exactly have these efforts been?

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

29. What do you think the following should do to solve the problem of flooding in this area?

Households:

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

Community:

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

Tamale Metropolitan Assembly (South, Central and North sub-metros):

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

Central Government:

............................................................................................................................................................

..........................................................................................................................................................

131
Additional Comment/Observation (if any):

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

132
 COLLAGE OF ENGINEERING

KWAME NKRUMAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

QUESTIONNAIR ON IMPACT OF FLOODING ON SOCIAL SERVICES

IN THE TAMALE METROPOLIS OF GHANA

This research aims mainly at investigating the causes of flooding in the Tamale low land basin
and the effects as a hazard on life, property and socio-economic activities of residents. It also
aims at suggesting recommendations to remedy the problem.

This questionnaire is design to gather Information sole for academic purpose. I assure you that
your identity and the information you provide will be treated with utmost confidentiality.

Kindly fill in the gaps and tick in the boxes with the most appropriate response(s). Thank you.

SAMPLE INSTITUTIONAL QUESTIONNAIRE

1. (a) Name of Respondent

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

(b) Name of Institution

............................................................................................................................................................

(c) Official position Held

…………..…………………………………………………………………………………………..

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

2. Major functions of institution

(i)……………………………………………………………………………………………………

……………………………………....................................................................................................

(ii)…………………………………………………………………………………………………...

133
……………........................................................................................................................................

(iii)…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

………………………………………................................................................................................

(iv)…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

………………………………………................................................................................................

3. (a) Do you have any special regulations to control activities in flood prone areas of the
Metropolis? Yes [ ] No [ ]

(b) If yes, are they being enforced? Yes [ ] No [ ]

(c) Do you think improper waste disposal activities are responsible for the flooding of
communities in the Metropolis river basin? Yes [ ] No [ ]

Give reasons for response

(i)……………………………………………………………………………………………………

...……………………………………………………………………………………………………

(ii)…………………………………………………………………………………………………...

…………………………...…………….............................................................................................

(iii)……………………………………………………………………………..…............................

............................................................................................................................................................

(iv)…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

4. (a) Are you aware of any programmes/projects aimed at reducing the incidence of flooding in
the Metropolis river basin? Yes [ ] No [ ]

(b) If yes, which one(s)

134
(i)……………………………………………………………….…………………………………...

…........................................................................................................................................................

(ii)…………………………………………………………………………………………………...

……………………………...………….............................................................................................

(iii)…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

5. (a) What specific actions do you take in flood prevention in the Metropolis river basin?

(i) …………………………………………………………………………………………………...

…………………………………………............................................................................................

(ii) …………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………............................................................................................

(b) What specific actions do you take in flood management in the river basin?

(i)……………………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………............................................................................................

(ii).......................................................................................................................................................

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

(iii)…………………………………………......................................................................................
............................................................................................................................................................

(b) Is the institution adequately resourced to carry out its responsibilities?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

If No, in what areas are you challenged?

135
Human

………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………....................

Financial

………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Logistics & Equipment

………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Legal

………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………................

Others (specify)

..................……………………………………………………………………….…………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

(c) What steps are being taken to address them?

(i)……………………………………………………………………………………………............

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

(ii)…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….

(iii)…………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………....

136
8. (a) Do you collaborate with any agencies in flood management and prevention with specific
reference to the TaMA river basin?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

(b) If Yes, which one(s)?

(i)……………………………………………………………………………………………………

……....................................................................................................................................................

(ii)……………………………………………………………………………………………….......

…………..…………………………………………………………………………………………..

(iii)….…………………………………….........................................................................................

............................................................................................................................................................

(c) Are you satisfied with the level of collaboration? Yes [ ] No [ ]

(d) If no, why?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………................................................................................................

……………………………………………………………………………………………………....

9. What do you think are the causes of flooding in the river basin in the Metropolis?

(i)………………................................................................................................................................
............................................................................................................................................................

(ii)………………………………………………………………………………………………...…
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

(iii)…………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

137
(iv)………………………………………………………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

10. (a) Do you involve the citizenry in the Metropolis river basin in the activities of the
institution?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

(b) If yes, at what level?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

(c) How do you rate their level of participation?

High [ ] Average [ ] Low [ ] Nil [ ]

(c) What do you think accounts for this level?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

(d) If No, why?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

11. What do you think the following should do to solve the problem of flooding in the
Metropolis river basin?

Households

……………………………………………………………………………………………................
............................................................................................................................................................

Communities

............................................................................................................................................................
............................................................................................................................................................

138
Metropolitan Waste Management Department, TaMA

............................................................................................................................................................
............................................................................................................................................................

Central Government

............................................................................................................................................................
............................................................................................................................................................

Additional Observation/Comments (if any):

............................................................................................................................................................
............................................................................................................................................................

139