Edexcel Maths S4

Past Paper Pack

2008-2013

PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
 June 2008
Surname Initial(s)
Centre
Paper Reference
No.

Signature
Candidate
No. 6 6 8 6 0 1
Paper Reference(s)

6686/01 Examiner’s use only

Edexcel GCE Team Leader’s use only

Statistics S4
Advanced/Advanced Subsidiary Question Leave
Number Blank
Wednesday 18 June 2008 – Morning
1
Time: 1 hour 30 minutes 2
3
4
Materials required for examination Items included with question papers
Mathematical Formulae (Green) Nil 5

Candidates may use any calculator allowed by the regulations of the Joint 6
Council for Qualifications. Calculators must not have the facility for symbolic
algebra manipulation, differentiation and integration, or have retrievable 7
mathematical formulae stored in them.

Instructions to Candidates
In the boxes above, write your centre number, candidate number, your surname, initials and signature.
Check that you have the correct question paper.
Answer ALL the questions.
You must write your answer for each question in the space following the question.
Values from the statistical tables should be quoted in full. When a calculator is used, the answer should
be given to an appropriate degree of accuracy.

Information for Candidates

A booklet ‘Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables’ is provided.
Full marks may be obtained for answers to ALL questions.
The marks for individual questions and the parts of questions are shown in round brackets: e.g. (2).
There are 7 questions in this question paper. The total mark for this paper is 75.
There are 24 pages in this question paper. Any blank pages are indicated.

Advice to Candidates
You must ensure that your answers to parts of questions are clearly labelled.
You should show sufficient working to make your methods clear to the Examiner.
Answers without working may not gain full credit.

Total
This publication may be reproduced only in accordance with
Edexcel Limited copyright policy.
©2008 Edexcel Limited. Turn over
Printer’s Log. No.

H31327A
W850/R6686/57570 3/3/3
*H31327A0124*
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1. A random sample X1, X2, ..., X10 is taken from a population with mean μ and variance σ2.

(a) Determine the bias, if any, of each of the following estimators of μ.

θ1 = X3 + X4 + X5 ,
3

θ2 = X10 – X1 ,
3

θ3 = 3X1 + 2X2 + X10 .

6

(4)

(b) Find the variance of each of these estimators.

(5)

(c) State, giving reasons, which of these three estimators for μ is

(i) the best estimator,

(ii) the worst estimator.

(4)
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2. A large number of students are split into two groups A and B. The students sit the same
test but under different conditions. Group A has music playing in the room during the test,
and group B has no music playing during the test. Small samples are then taken from each
group and their marks recorded. The marks are normally distributed.

The marks are as follows:

Sample from Group A 42 40 35 37 34 43 42 44 49

Sample from Group B 40 44 38 47 38 37 33

(a) Stating your hypotheses clearly, and using a 10% level of significance, test whether
or not there is evidence of a difference between the variances of the marks of the two
groups.
(8)

(b) State clearly an assumption you have made to enable you to carry out the test in
part (a).
(1)

(c) Use a two tailed test, with a 5% level of significance, to determine if the playing of
music during the test has made any difference in the mean marks of the two groups.
State your hypotheses clearly.
(7)

(d) Write down what you can conclude about the effect of music on a student’s
performance during the test.
(1)
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3. The weights, in grams, of mice are normally distributed. A biologist takes a random
sample of 10 mice. She weighs each mouse and records its weight.

The ten mice are then fed on a special diet. They are weighed again after two weeks.

Their weights in grams are as follows:

Mouse A B C D E F G H I J
Weight before
50.0 48.3 47.5 54.0 38.9 42.7 50.1 46.8 40.3 41.2
diet
Weight after
52.1 47.6 50.1 52.3 42.2 44.3 51.8 48.0 41.9 43.6
diet

Stating your hypotheses clearly, and using a 1% level of significance, test whether or not
the diet causes an increase in the mean weight of the mice.
(8)
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4. A town council is concerned that the mean price of renting two bedroom flats in the town
has exceeded £650 per month. A random sample of eight two bedroom flats gave the
following results, £x, per month.

705, 640, 560, 680, 800, 620, 580, 760

[You may assume

∑ x = 5345 ∑x 2
= 3621025 ]

(a) Find a 90% confidence interval for the mean price of renting a two bedroom flat.
(6)

(b) State an assumption that is required for the validity of your interval in part (a).
(1)

(c) Comment on whether or not the town council is justified in being concerned. Give a
reason for your answer.
(2)
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5. A machine is filling bottles of milk. A random sample of 16 bottles was taken and the
volume of milk in each bottle was measured and recorded. The volume of milk in a bottle
is normally distributed and the unbiased estimate of the variance, s2, of the volume of milk
in a bottle is 0.003

(a) Find a 95% confidence interval for the variance of the population of volumes of milk
from which the sample was taken.
(5)

The machine should fill bottles so that the standard deviation of the volumes is equal to
0.07

(b) Comment on this with reference to your 95% confidence interval.

(3)
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Question 5 continued
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(Total 8 marks)

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6. A drug is claimed to produce a cure to a certain disease in 35% of people who have the
disease. To test this claim a sample of 20 people having this disease is chosen at random
and given the drug. If the number of people cured is between 4 and 10 inclusive the claim
will be accepted. Otherwise the claim will not be accepted.

(a) Write down suitable hypotheses to carry out this test.

(2)

(b) Find the probability of making a Type I error.

(3)

The table below gives the value of the probability of the Type II error, to 4 decimal places,
for different values of p where p is the probability of the drug curing a person with the
disease.

P(cure) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

P(Type II error) 0.5880 r 0.8565 s

(c) Calculate the value of r and the value of s.

(3)

(d) Calculate the power of the test for p = 0.2 and p = 0.4
(2)

(e) Comment, giving your reasons, on the suitability of this test procedure.
(2)
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Question 6 continued
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7. An engineering firm buys steel rods. The steel rods from its present supplier are known to
have a mean tensile strength of 230 N/mm2.

A new supplier of steel rods offers to supply rods at a cheaper price than the present
supplier. A random sample of ten rods from this new supplier gave tensile strengths, x
N/mm2, which are summarised below.

Sample size Σx Σx2

10 2283 524 079

(a) Stating your hypotheses clearly, and using a 5% level of significance, test whether
or not the rods from the new supplier have a tensile strength lower than the present
supplier. (You may assume that the tensile strength is normally distributed).
(7)

(b) In the light of your conclusion to part (a) write down what you would recommend the
engineering firm to do.
(1)
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Question 7 continued
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*H31327A02124* Turn over
 June 2009
Surname Initial(s)
Centre
Paper Reference
No.

Signature
Candidate
No. 6 6 8 6 0 1
Paper Reference(s)

6686/01 Examiner’s use only

Edexcel GCE Team Leader’s use only

Statistics S4
Advanced/Advanced Subsidiary Question Leave
Number Blank
Friday 19 June 2009 – Afternoon
1
Time: 1 hour 30 minutes 2
3
4
Materials required for examination Items included with question papers
Mathematical Formulae (Orange or Nil 5
Green)
6
Candidates may use any calculator allowed by the regulations of the Joint
Council for Qualifications. Calculators must not have the facility for symbolic
algebra manipulation, differentiation and integration, or have retrievable
mathematical formulae stored in them.

Instructions to Candidates
In the boxes above, write your centre number, candidate number, your surname, initials and signature.
Check that you have the correct question paper.
Answer ALL the questions. You must write your answer for each question in the space following the
question.
Values from the statistical tables should be quoted in full. When a calculator is used, the answer should
be given to an appropriate degree of accuracy.

Information for Candidates

A booklet ‘Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables’ is provided.
Full marks may be obtained for answers to ALL questions.
The marks for individual questions and the parts of questions are shown in round brackets: e.g. (2).
There are 6 questions in this question paper. The total mark for this paper is 75.
There are 24 pages in this question paper. Any blank pages are indicated.

Advice to Candidates
You must ensure that your answers to parts of questions are clearly labelled.
You should show sufficient working to make your methods clear to the Examiner.
Answers without working may not gain full credit.

Total
This publication may be reproduced only in accordance with
Edexcel Limited copyright policy.
©2009 Edexcel Limited. Turn over
Printer’s Log. No.

M34281A
W850/R6686/57570 8/4/3/3/
*M34281A0124*
 June 2009
Leave
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1. A company manufactures bolts with a mean diameter of 5 mm. The company wishes to
check that the diameter of the bolts has not decreased. A random sample of 10 bolts is
taken and the diameters, x mm, of the bolts are measured. The results are summarised
below.
∑ x = 49.1 ∑ x = 241.2
2

Using a 1% level of significance, test whether or not the mean diameter of the bolts is less
than 5 mm.

(You may assume that the diameter of the bolts follows a normal distribution.)
(8)
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2. An emission-control device is tested to see if it reduces CO2 emissions from cars. The
emissions from 6 randomly selected cars are measured with and without the device. The
results are as follows.

Car A B C D E F

Emissions
151.4 164.3 168.5 148.2 139.4 151.2
without device

Emissions
148.9 162.7 166.9 150.1 140.0 146.7
with device

(a) State an assumption that needs to be made in order to carry out a t-test in this case.
(1)

(b) State why a paired t-test is suitable for use with these data.
(1)

(c) Using a 5% level of significance, test whether or not there is evidence that the device
reduces CO2 emissions from cars.
(8)

(d) Explain, in context, what a type II error would be in this case.

(2)
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Question 2 continued
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3. Define, in terms of H0 and/or H1,

(a) the size of a hypothesis test,

(1)

(b) the power of a hypothesis test.

(1)

The probability of getting a head when a coin is tossed is denoted by p.

This coin is tossed 12 times in order to test the hypotheses H0: p = 0.5 against H1: p ≠ 0.5,
using a 5% level of significance.

(c) Find the largest critical region for this test, such that the probability in each tail is less
than 2.5%.
(4)

(d) Given that p = 0.4

(i) find the probability of a type II error when using this test,

(ii) find the power of this test.

(4)

(e) Suggest two ways in which the power of the test can be increased.
(2)
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Question 3 continued
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4. A farmer set up a trial to assess whether adding water to dry feed increases the milk yield
of his cows. He randomly selected 22 cows. Thirteen of the cows were given dry feed and
the other 9 cows were given the feed with water added. The milk yields, in litres per day,
were recorded with the following results.

Sample size Mean s2

Dry feed 13 25.54 2.45
Feed with water added 9 27.94 1.02

You may assume that the milk yield from cows given the dry feed and the milk yield from
cows given the feed with water added are from independent normal distributions.

(a) Test, at the 10% level of significance, whether or not the variances of the populations
from which the samples are drawn are the same. State your hypotheses clearly.
(5)

(b) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the difference between the two mean milk
yields.
(7)

(c) Explain the importance of the test in part (a) to the calculation in part (b).
(2)
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Question 4 continued
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5. A machine fills jars with jam. The weight of jam in each jar is normally distributed.
To check the machine is working properly the contents of a random sample of 15 jars are
weighed in grams. Unbiased estimates of the mean and variance are obtained as

= 560 s2 = 25.2

Calculate a 95% confidence interval for,

(a) the mean weight of jam,

(4)

(b) the variance of the weight of jam.

(5)

A weight of more than 565 g is regarded as too high and suggests the machine is not
working properly.

(c) Use appropriate confidence limits from parts (a) and (b) to find the highest estimate
of the proportion of jars that weigh too much.
(5)
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Question 5 continued
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k k2
6. A continuous uniform distribution on the interval [0, k] has mean and variance .
2 12
A random sample of three independent variables X1, X2 and X3 is taken from this
distribution.

2 1 5
(a) Show that X1 + X2 + X3 is an unbiased estimator for k.
3 2 6
(3)

An unbiased estimator for k is given by k̂ = aX1 + bX2 where a and b are constants.
k2
(b) Show that Var ( k̂ ) = (a2 – 2a + 2)
6
(6)

(c) Hence determine the value of a and the value of b for which k̂ has minimum variance,
and calculate this minimum variance.
(6)
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Question 6 continued
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*M34281A02124* Turn over
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Surname Initial(s)
Centre
Paper Reference
No.

Signature
Candidate
No. 6 6 8 6 0 1
Paper Reference(s)

6686/01 Examiner’s use only

Edexcel GCE Team Leader’s use only

Statistics S4
Advanced/Advanced Subsidiary Question Leave
Number Blank
Thursday 24 June 2010 – Morning
1
Time: 1 hour 30 minutes 2
3
4
Materials required for examination Items included with question papers
Mathematical Formulae (Pink) Nil 5
6
Candidates may use any calculator allowed by the regulations of the Joint
Council for Qualifications. Calculators must not have the facility for symbolic
algebra manipulation, differentiation and integration, or have retrievable
mathematical formulae stored in them.

Instructions to Candidates
In the boxes above, write your centre number, candidate number, your surname, initials and signature.
Check that you have the correct question paper.
Answer ALL the questions.
You must write your answer to each question in the space following the question.
Values from the statistical tables should be quoted in full. When a calculator is used, the answer should
be given to an appropriate degree of accuracy.

Information for Candidates

A booklet ‘Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables’ is provided.
Full marks may be obtained for answers to ALL questions.
The marks for individual questions and the parts of questions are shown in round brackets: e.g. (2).
There are 6 questions in this question paper. The total mark for this paper is 75.
There are 24 pages in this question paper. Any blank pages are indicated.

Advice to Candidates
You must ensure that your answers to parts of questions are clearly labelled.
You should show sufficient working to make your methods clear to the Examiner.
Answers without working may not gain full credit.

Total
This publication may be reproduced only in accordance with
Edexcel Limited copyright policy.
©2010 Edexcel Limited. Turn over
Printer’s Log. No.

M35398A
W850/R6686/57570 4/5/5/3
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1. A teacher wishes to test whether playing background music enables students to complete
a task more quickly. The same task was completed by 15 students, divided at random into
two groups. The first group had background music playing during the task and the second
group had no background music playing.
The times taken, in minutes, to complete the task are summarised below.

Sample size Standard deviation Mean

n s x
With background music 8 4.1 15.9
Without background music 7 5.2 17.9

You may assume that the times taken to complete the task by the students are two
independent random samples from normal distributions.

(a) Stating your hypotheses clearly, test, at the 10% level of significance, whether or not
the variances of the times taken to complete the task with and without background
music are equal.
(5)

(b) Find a 99% confidence interval for the difference in the mean times taken to complete
the task with and without background music.
(7)

Experiments like this are often performed using the same people in each group.

(c) Explain why this would not be appropriate in this case.

(1)
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2. As part of an investigation, a random sample of 10 people had their heart rate, in beats per
minute, measured whilst standing up and whilst lying down. The results are summarised
below.

Person 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Heart rate lying down 66 70 59 65 72 66 62 69 56 68
Heart rate standing up 75 76 63 67 80 75 65 74 63 75

(a) State one assumption that needs to be made in order to carry out a paired t-test.
(1)

(b) Test, at the 5% level of significance, whether or not there is any evidence that standing
up increases people’s mean heart rate by more than 5 beats per minute. State your
hypotheses clearly.
(8)
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3. A manager in a sweet factory believes that the machines are working incorrectly and the
proportion p of underweight bags of sweets is more than 5%. He decides to test this by
randomly selecting a sample of 5 bags and recording the number X that are underweight.
The manager sets up the hypotheses H0: p = 0.05 and H1: p > 0.05 and rejects the null
hypothesis if x > 1.

(a) Find the size of the test.

(2)

(b) Show that the power function of the test is

1 – (1 – p)4(1 + 4p)
(3)

The manager goes on holiday and his deputy checks the production by randomly selecting
a sample of 10 bags of sweets. He rejects the hypothesis that p = 0.05 if more than 2
underweight bags are found in the sample.

(c) Find the probability of a Type I error using the deputy’s test.
(2)

Question 3 continues on page 12

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Question 3 continued

The table below gives some values, to 2 decimal places, of the power function for the
deputy’s test.
p 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
Power 0.07 s 0.32 0.47

(d) Find the value of s.

(1)

The graph of the power function for the manager’s test is shown in Figure 1.

0.5

0.4
Manager’s test

0.3
Power

0.2

0.1

0
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
p
Figure 1

(e) On the same axes, draw the graph of the power function for the deputy’s test.
(1)
(f) (i) State the value of p where these graphs intersect.

(ii) Compare the effectiveness of the two tests if p is greater than this value.
(2)

The deputy suggests that they should use his sampling method rather than the
manager’s.

(g) Give a reason why the manager might not agree to this change.
(1)

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(Total 12 marks)

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4. A random sample of 15 strawberries is taken from a large field and the weight x grams of
each strawberry is recorded. The results are summarised below.

∑ x = 291 ∑x 2
= 5968

Assume that the weights of strawberries are normally distributed.

Calculate a 95% confidence interval for

(a) (i) the mean of the weights of the strawberries in the field,

(ii) the variance of the weights of the strawberries in the field.

(12)

Strawberries weighing more than 23 g are considered to be less tasty.

(b) Use appropriate confidence limits from part (a) to find the highest estimate of the
proportion of strawberries that are considered to be less tasty.
(4)
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5. A car manufacturer claims that, on a motorway, the mean number of miles per gallon for
the Panther car is more than 70. To test this claim a car magazine measures the number
of miles per gallon, x, of each of a random sample of 20 Panther cars and obtained the
following statistics.

x = 71.2 s = 3.4

The number of miles per gallon may be assumed to be normally distributed.

(a) Stating your hypotheses clearly and using a 5% level of significance, test the
manufacturer’s claim.
(5)

The standard deviation of the number of miles per gallon for the Tiger car is 4.

(b) Stating your hypotheses clearly, test, at the 5% level of significance, whether or not
there is evidence that the variance of the number of miles per gallon for the Panther
car is different from that of the Tiger car.
(6)
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6. Faults occur in a roll of material at a rate of λ per m2. To estimate λ, three pieces of
material of sizes 3 m2, 7 m2 and 10 m2 are selected and the number of faults X1, X2 and X3
respectively are recorded.

The estimator λ̂ , where

λˆ = k (X1 + X2 + X3)

is an unbiased estimator of λ.

(a) Write down the distributions of X1, X2 and X3 and find the value of k.
(4)

(b) Find Var( λ̂ ).

(3)

A random sample of n pieces of this material, each of size 4 m2, was taken. The number
of faults on each piece, Y, was recorded.
1
(c) Show that Y is an unbiased estimator of λ.
4 (2)
1
(d) Find Var( Y ).
4 (3)
1
(e) Find the minimum value of n for which Y becomes a better estimator of λ than λ̂ .
4
(2)
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Surname Initial(s)
Centre
Paper Reference
No.

6 6 8 6 0 1
Candidate
Signature
No.

Paper Reference(s)

6686/01 Examiner’s use only

Edexcel GCE Team Leader’s use only

Statistics S4
Advanced/Advanced Subsidiary Question Leave
Number Blank
Thursday 23 June 2011 – Morning
1
Time: 1 hour 30 minutes 2
3
4
Materials required for examination Items included with question papers
Mathematical Formulae (Pink) Nil 5

Candidates may use any calculator allowed by the regulations of the Joint 6
Council for Qualifications. Calculators must not have the facility for symbolic
algebra manipulation or symbolic differentiation/integration, or have 7
retrievable mathematical formulae stored in them.

Instructions to Candidates
In the boxes above, write your centre number, candidate number, your surname, initials and signature.
Check that you have the correct question paper.
Answer ALL the questions.
You must write your answer to each question in the space following the question.
Values from the statistical tables should be quoted in full. When a calculator is used, the answer should
be given to an appropriate degree of accuracy.

Information for Candidates

A booklet ‘Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables’ is provided.
Full marks may be obtained for answers to ALL questions.
The marks for individual questions and the parts of questions are shown in round brackets: e.g. (2).
There are 7 questions in this question paper. The total mark for this paper is 75.
There are 20 pages in this question paper. Any blank pages are indicated.

Advice to Candidates
You must ensure that your answers to parts of questions are clearly labelled.
You should show sufficient working to make your methods clear to the Examiner.
Answers without working may not gain full credit.

Total
This publication may be reproduced only in accordance with

Turn over
Edexcel Limited copyright policy.

*P35418A0120*
©2011 Edexcel Limited.
Printer’s Log. No.

P35418A
W850/R6686/57570 5/3/3
 June 2011
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1. Find the value of the constant a such that
P(a < F8, 10 < 3.07) = 0.94
(2)
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(Total 2 marks)

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2. Two independent random samples X1, X2, ..., X7 and Y1, Y2, Y3, Y4 were taken from different
normal populations with a common standard deviation σ .
The following sample statistics were calculated.

sx = 14.67 sy = 12.07

Find the 99% confidence interval for σ 2 based on these two samples.
(5)
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(Total 5 marks)

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3. Manuel is planning to buy a new machine to squeeze oranges in his cafe and he has
two models, at the same price, on trial. The manufacturers of machine B claim that their
machine produces more juice from an orange than machine A. To test this claim Manuel
takes a random sample of 8 oranges, cuts them in half and puts one half in machine A
and the other half in machine B. The amount of juice, in ml, produced by each machine is
given in the table below.

Orange 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Machine A 60 58 55 53 52 51 54 56
Machine B 61 60 58 52 55 50 52 58

Stating your hypotheses clearly, test, at the 10% level of significance, whether or not the
mean amount of juice produced by machine B is more than the mean amount produced by
machine A.
(8)
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4. A proportion p of letters sent by a company are incorrectly addressed and if p is thought
to be greater than 0.05 then action is taken.
Using H0: p = 0.05 and H1: p > 0.05, a manager from the company takes a random sample
of 40 letters and rejects H0 if the number of incorrectly addressed letters is more than 3.

(a) Find the size of this test.

(2)

(b) Find the probability of a Type II error in the case where p is in fact 0.10
(2)

Table 1 below gives some values, to 2 decimal places, of the power function of this test.

p 0.075 0.100 0.125 0.150 0.175 0.200 0.225

Power 0.35 s 0.75 0.87 0.94 0.97 0.99

Table 1

(c) Write down the value of s.

(1)

A visiting consultant uses an alternative system to test the same hypotheses. A sample of
15 letters is taken. If these are all correctly addressed then H0 is accepted. If 2 or more
are found to have been incorrectly addressed then H0 is rejected. If only one is found to
be incorrectly addressed then a further random sample of 15 is taken and H0 is rejected if
2 or more are found to have been incorrectly addressed in this second sample, otherwise
H0 is accepted.

(d) Find the size of the test used by the consultant.

(3)
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For your convenience Table 1 is repeated here

p 0.075 0.100 0.125 0.150 0.175 0.200 0.225

Power 0.35 s 0.75 0.87 0.94 0.97 0.99

Table 1

Figure 1 shows the graph of the power function of the test used by the consultant.

Power

1.0

consultant’s test
0.9

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0.3

0 0.075 0.100 0.125 0.150 0.175 0.200 0.225 p

Figure 1

(e) On Figure 1 draw the graph of the power function of the manager’s test.
(2)

(f) State, giving your reasons, which test you would recommend.
(2)
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(Total 12 marks)

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5. The weights of the contents of breakfast cereal boxes are normally distributed.
A manufacturer changes the style of the boxes but claims that the weight of the contents
remains the same.
A random sample of 6 old style boxes had contents with the following weights (in
grams).
512 503 514 506 509 515

The weights, y grams, of the contents of an independent random sample of 5 new style
boxes gave
y = 504.8 and sy = 3.420

(a) Use a two-tail test to show, at the 10% level of significance, that the variances of the
weights of the contents of the old and new style boxes can be assumed to be equal.
State your hypotheses clearly.
(5)

(b) Showing your working clearly, find a 90% confidence interval for —x – —y , where
—x and —y are the mean weights of the contents of old and new style boxes
respectively.
(7)

(c) With reference to your confidence interval comment on the manufacturer’s claim.
(2)
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6. A random sample X1, X2, ..., Xn is taken from a population where each of the Xi have a
continuous uniform distribution over the interval [ 0, β ] .
The random variable Y = max { X 1 , X 2 ,..., X n } .
The probability density function of Y is given by

⎧ n y n −1 0 ! y ! β
⎪ n
f ( y) = ⎨ β
⎪⎩ 0 otherwise

(a) Show that E(Y m ) = n βm.

n+m (3)

(b) Write down E(Y).

(1)

(c) Using your answers to parts (a) and (b), or otherwise, show that

Var(Y ) = n β2
2
(n + 1) (n + 2) (3)

(d) State, giving your reasons, whether or not Y is a consistent estimator of β .

(3)

The random variables M = 2X , where X = 1 ( X 1 + X 2 + ... + X n ), and S = kY, where k is

n
a constant, are both unbiased estimators of β .

(e) Find the value of k in terms of n.

(1)

(f) State, giving your reasons, which of M and S is the better estimator of β in this case.
(3)

Five observations of X are: 8.5 6.3 5.4 9.1 7.6

(g) Calculate the better estimate of β .

(2)
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7. A machine produces components whose lengths are normally distributed with mean
102.3 mm and standard deviation 2.8 mm. After the machine had been serviced, a random
sample of 20 components were tested to see if the mean and standard deviation had
changed. The lengths, x mm, of each of these 20 components are summarised as

∑ x = 2072 ∑ x 2
= 214 856

(a) Stating your hypotheses clearly, test, at the 5% level of significance, whether or not
there is evidence of a change in standard deviation.
(7)

(b) Stating your hypotheses clearly, test, at the 5% level of significance, whether or not
the mean length of the components has changed from the original value of 102.3 mm
using

(i) a normal distribution,

(ii) a t distribution.
(9)

(c) Comment on the mean length of components produced after the service in the light of
the tests from part (a) and part (b). Give a reason for your answer.
(2)
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7XUQ RYHU
 Surname Initial(s)
Centre
Paper Reference
No.

6 6 8 6 0 1R
Candidate
Signature
No.

Paper Reference(s)

6686/01R Examiner’s use only

Edexcel GCE Team Leader’s use only

Statistics S4
Advanced/Advanced Subsidiary Question Leave
Number Blank
Friday 21 June 2013 – Morning
1
Time: 1 hour 30 minutes 2
3
4
Materials required for examination Items included with question papers
Mathematical Formulae (Pink) Nil 5
6
Candidates may use any calculator allowed by the regulations of the Joint
Council for Qualifications. Calculators must not have the facility for symbolic 7
algebra manipulation or symbolic differentiation/integration, or have
retrievable mathematical formulae stored in them. 8

Instructions to Candidates
In the boxes above, write your centre number, candidate number, your surname, initials and signature.
Check that you have the correct question paper.
Answer ALL the questions.
You must write your answer to each question in the space following the question.
Values from the statistical tables should be quoted in full. When a calculator is used, the answer
should be given to an appropriate degree of accuracy.

Information for Candidates

A booklet ‘Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables’ is provided.
Full marks may be obtained for answers to ALL questions.
The marks for individual questions and the parts of questions are shown in round brackets: e.g. (2).
There are 8 questions in this question paper. The total mark for this paper is 75.
There are 24 pages in this question paper. Any blank pages are indicated.

Advice to Candidates
You must ensure that your answers to parts of questions are clearly labelled.
You should show sufficient working to make your methods clear to the Examiner.
Answers without working may not gain full credit.

Total
This publication may be reproduced only in accordance with

Turn over
Pearson Education Ltd copyright policy.

*P42960A0124*
©2013 Pearson Education Ltd.
Printer’s Log. No.

P42960A
W850/R6684/57570 5/5/5/
 Leave
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1. (a) Find the value of the constant a such that

P(1.690 < ! 27 < a) = 0.95

(2)

The random variable Y follows an F-distribution with 6 and 4 degrees of freedom.

(b) (i) Find the upper 1% critical value for Y.

(ii) Find the lower 1% critical value for Y.

(2)
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(Total 4 marks)

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2. The time, t hours, that a typist can sit before incurring back pain is modelled by N(", #2).
A random sample of 30 typists gave unbiased estimates for " and #2 as shown below.

"ˆ = 2.5 s2 = 0.36

(a) Find a 95% confidence interval for #2

(5)

(b) State with a reason whether or not the confidence interval supports the assertion that
#2 = 0.495
(2)
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(Total 7 marks)

3
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3. The number of houses sold per week by a firm of estate agents follows a Poisson
distribution with mean 2. The firm believes that the appointment of a new salesman will
increase the number of houses sold. The firm tests its belief by recording the number of
houses sold, x, in the week following the appointment. The firm sets up the hypotheses
H0 :$ = 2 and H1 :$ > 2, where $ is the mean number of houses sold per week, and rejects
the null hypothesis if x ! 3

(a) Find the size of the test.

(2)

(b) Show that the power function for this test is

1 –$
1– e (2 + 2$%&%$2)
2
(3)

The table below gives the values of the power function to 2 decimal places.

$ 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 7.0

Power 0.46 r 0.68 s 0.88 0.97

Table 1

(c) Calculate the values of r and s.

(2)

(d) Draw a graph of the power function on the graph paper provided on page 6
(2)

(e) Find the range of values of $ for which the power of this test is greater than 0.6
(1)
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Question 3 continued

For your convenience Table 1 is repeated here.

$ 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 7.0

Power 0.46 r 0.68 s 0.88 0.97

Table 1
Power
1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 $

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(Total 10 marks)

7
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4. A company carries out an investigation into the strengths of rods from two different
suppliers, Ardo and Bards. Independent random samples of rods were taken from each
supplier and the force, x kN, needed to break each rod was recorded. The company wrote
the results on a piece of paper but unfortunately spilt ink on it so some of the results can
not be seen.
The paper with the results on is shown below.

Ardo: 13.1 13.6 13.2 13.8 12.8 13.5 13.8

Bards: 15.3 15.5 14.1 15.4 14.2 15.4 14.6 14.2 14.5
Ardo nA = 7 ('A = 13.4 sA2 = 0.158
Bards nB = 9 ('B = 14.8 sB2 = 0.394
Pooled estimate of variance = 0.261

(a) (i) Use the data from Ardo to calculate an unbiased estimate, sA2, of the variance.

(ii) Hence find an unbiased estimate, sB2, of the variance for the sample of 9 values
from Bards.
(4)

(b) Stating your hypotheses clearly, test at the 10% level of significance whether or not
there is a difference in variability of strength between the rods from Ardo and the rods
from Bards.
(You may assume the two samples come from independent normal distributions.)
(5)

(c) Use a 5% level of significance to test whether the mean strength of rods from Bards
is more than 0.9 kN greater than the mean strength of rods from Ardo.
(6)
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5. Students studying for their Mathematics GCSE are assessed by two examination papers.
A teacher believes that on average the score on paper I is more than 1 mark higher than
the score on paper II. To test this belief the scores of 8 randomly selected students are
recorded. The results are given in the table below.

Student A B C D E F G H
Score on paper I 57 63 68 81 43 65 52 31
Score on paper II 53 62 61 78 44 64 43 29

Assuming that the scores are normally distributed and stating your hypotheses clearly, test
at the 5% level of significance whether or not there is evidence to support the teacher’s
belief.
(8)
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(Total 8 marks)

13
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6. A machine fills bottles with water. The amount of water in each bottle is normally
distributed. To check the machine is working properly, a random sample of 12 bottles is
selected and the amount of water, in ml, in each bottle is recorded. Unbiased estimates
for the mean and variance are

") = 502 s2 = 5.6

Stating your hypotheses clearly, test at the 1% level of significance

(a) whether or not the mean amount of water in a bottle is more than 500 ml,
(5)

(b) whether or not the standard deviation of the amount of water in a bottle is less
than 3 ml.
(5)
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7. A machine produces bricks. The lengths, x mm, of the bricks are distributed N(", 22).
At the start of each week a random sample of *%bricks is taken to check the machine is
working correctly.
A test is then carried out at the 1% level of significance with

H0 :" = 202 and H1 :" < 202

(a) Find, in terms of n, the critical region of the test.

(3)

The probability of a type II error, when " = 200, is less than 0.05

(b) Find the minimum value of n.

(6)
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8. A random sample W1, W2…, Wn is taken from a distribution with mean " and variance # 2

⎛ n ⎞ ⎛ n 2⎞
(a) Write down E ⎜ ∑ Wi ⎟ and show that E ⎜ ∑ Wi ⎟ = n(#2 + "2)
⎝ i =1 ⎠ ⎝ i =1 ⎠
(4)

An estimator for " is

1 n
X¯ = ∑ Wi
n i =1

(b) Show that X! is a consistent estimator for ".

(3)

An estimator of #2 is
2
1 n ⎛1 n ⎞
U = ∑ Wi 2 − ⎜ ∑ Wi ⎟
n i =1 ⎝ n i =1 ⎠

(c) Find the bias of U.

(4)

(d) Write down an unbiased estimator of #2 in the form kU, where k is in terms of n.
(1)
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*P42960A02124* Turn over
 Surname Initial(s)
Centre
Paper Reference
No.

6 6 8 6 0 1
Candidate
Signature
No.

Paper Reference(s)

6686/01 Examiner’s use only

Edexcel GCE Team Leader’s use only

Statistics S4
Advanced/Advanced Subsidiary Question Leave
Number Blank
Friday 21 June 2013 – Morning
1
Time: 1 hour 30 minutes 2
3
4
Materials required for examination Items included with question papers
Mathematical Formulae (Pink) Nil 5
6
Candidates may use any calculator allowed by the regulations of the Joint
Council for Qualifications. Calculators must not have the facility for symbolic
algebra manipulation or symbolic differentiation/integration, or have
retrievable mathematical formulae stored in them.

Instructions to Candidates
In the boxes above, write your centre number, candidate number, your surname, initials and signature.
Check that you have the correct question paper.
Answer ALL the questions.
You must write your answer to each question in the space following the question.
Values from the statistical tables should be quoted in full. When a calculator is used, the answer
should be given to an appropriate degree of accuracy.

Information for Candidates

A booklet ‘Mathematical Formulae and Statistical Tables’ is provided.
Full marks may be obtained for answers to ALL questions.
The marks for individual questions and the parts of questions are shown in round brackets: e.g. (2).
There are 6 questions in this question paper. The total mark for this paper is 75.
There are 20 pages in this question paper. Any blank pages are indicated.

Advice to Candidates
You must ensure that your answers to parts of questions are clearly labelled.
You should show sufficient working to make your methods clear to the Examiner.
Answers without working may not gain full credit.

Total
This publication may be reproduced only in accordance with

Turn over
Pearson Education Ltd copyright policy.

*P41806A0120*
©2013 Pearson Education Ltd.
Printer’s Log. No.

P41806A
W850/R6686/57570 5/5/5/5/4/5/5/
 Leave
blank
1. George owns a garage and he records the mileage of cars, x thousands of miles, between
services. The results from a random sample of 10 cars are summarised below.

! x = 113.4 ! x 2
= 1414.08

The mileage of cars between services is normally distributed and George believes that the
standard deviation is 2.4 thousand miles.

Stating your hypotheses clearly, test, at the 5% level of significance, whether or not these
data support George’s belief.
(7)
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2
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2. Every 6 months some engineers are tested to see if their times, in minutes, to assemble
a particular component have changed. The times taken to assemble the component are
normally distributed. A random sample of 8 engineers was chosen and their times to
assemble the component were recorded in January and in July. The data are given in the
table below.

Engineer A B C D E F G H
January 17 19 22 26 15 28 18 21
July 19 18 25 24 17 25 16 19

(a) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the mean difference in times.
(7)

(b) Use your confidence interval to state, giving a reason, whether or not there is evidence
of a change in the mean time to assemble a component. State your hypotheses clearly.
(3)
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3. An archaeologist is studying the compression strength of bricks at some ancient European
sites. He took random samples from two sites A and B and recorded the compression
strength of these bricks in appropriate units. The results are summarised below.

Site Sample size (n) Sample mean (x–) Standard deviation (s)
A 7 8.43 4.24
B 13 14.31 4.37

It can be assumed that the compression strength of bricks is normally distributed.

(a) Test, at the 2% level of significance, whether or not there is evidence of a difference
in the variances of compression strength of the bricks between these two sites. State
your hypotheses clearly.
(5)

Site A is older than site B and the archaeologist claims that the mean compression strength
of the bricks was greater at the younger site.

(b) Stating your hypotheses clearly and using a 1% level of significance, test the
archaeologist’s claim.
(6)

(c) Explain briefly the importance of the test in part (a) to the test in part (b).
(1)
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4. A random sample of size 2, X1 and X2, is taken from the random variable X which has a
continuous uniform distribution over the interval [–a, 2a], a > 0

X1 + X 2
(a) Show that X = is a biased estimator of a and find the bias.
2 (3)
The random variable Y = kX is an unbiased estimator of a.

(b) Write down the value of the constant k.

(1)
(c) Find Var(Y).
(4)
The random variable M is the maximum of X1 and X2

The probability density function, m(x), of M is given by

⎧ 2( x + a )
⎪ − a ! x ! 2a
m( x ) = ⎨ 9a 2
⎪ 0 otherwise
⎩
(d) Show that M is an unbiased estimator of a.
(4)
3 2
Given that E(M 2) = a
2
(e) find Var(M).
(1)
(f) State, giving a reason, whether you would use Y or M as an estimator of a.
(2)
A random sample of two values of X are 5 and –1

(g) Use your answer to part (f) to estimate a.

(1)
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5. Water is tested at various stages during a purification process by an environmental
scientist. A certain organism occurs randomly in the water at a rate of ! every 10 ml. The
scientist selects a random sample of 20 ml of water to check whether there is evidence that
! is greater than 1. The criterion the scientist uses for rejecting the hypothesis that ! = 1
is that there are 4 or more organisms in the sample of 20 ml.

(a) Find the size of the test.

(2)
(b) When ! = 2.5 find P(Type II error).
(2)
A statistician suggests using an alternative test. The statistician’s test involves taking a
random sample of 10 ml and rejecting the hypothesis that ! = 1 if 2 or more organisms are
present but accepting the hypothesis if no organisms are in the sample. If only 1 organism
is found then a second random sample of 10 ml is taken and the hypothesis is rejected if
2 or more organisms are present, otherwise the hypothesis is accepted.

(c) Show that the power of the statistician’s test is given by

1 – e–!"#"!(1"$"!)e–2!
(4)
Table 1 below gives some values, to 2 decimal places, of the power function of the
statistician’s test.

! 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Power 0.59 0.75 0.86 r 0.96 0.97

Table 1

(d) Find the value of r.

(1)

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Question 5 continued

For your convenience Table 1 is repeated here.

! 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Power 0.59 0.75 0.86 r 0.96 0.97

Table 1

Figure 1 shows a graph of the power function for the scientist’s test.

(e) On the same axes draw the graph of the power function for the statistician’s test.
(2)

Given that it takes 20 minutes to collect and test a 20 ml sample and 15 minutes to collect
and test a 10 ml sample

(f) show that the expected time of the statistician’s test is slower than the scientist’s test
1
for λe − λ >
3 (4)

(g) By considering the times when ! = 1 and ! = 2 together with the power curves
in part (e) suggest, giving a reason, which test you would use.
(2)
Power
1.0 –

0.8 –

0.6 –

0.4 – Scientist’s test

0.2 –

0 1 2 3 4 !

Figure 1

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(Total 17 marks)

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6. The carbon content, measured in suitable units, of steel is normally distributed. Two
independent random samples of steel were taken from a refining plant at different times
and their carbon content recorded. The results are given below.

Sample A: 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.2

Sample B: 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4

(a) Stating your hypotheses clearly, carry out a suitable test, at the 10% level of
significance, to show that both samples can be assumed to have come from populations
with a common variance &2.
(7)

(b) Showing your working clearly, find the 99% confidence interval for &2 based on both
samples.
(6)
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