Good evening mates! Thanks for joining me each night.

I hope in our sharing group, I can become

a companion and mate on your investment journey. Every evening, I’ll be sharing insights on the
stock market, global economic conditions, and plenty of exciting investment opportunities,
providing comprehensive and engaging content for everyone.

This week is a super data week

expected to have a significant impact on our stock market, forex, and commodities
It's a crucial week for us to focus on all investments
Been discussing with many friends about the recent USDJPY exchange rates, and I've also
identified a trend in the past couple of days
There are plenty of opportunities in the market
So, today in this segment, we'll delve into a detailed analysis for everyone. Additionally, there are
some latest market news updates to briefly go through
Are you all ready, folks?

First up, it's about the super data week

On Wednesday, the US will release the ADP employment data
Early Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision
And on Friday, we'll see the release of the US non-farm payroll data
These data points will directly impact all markets throughout the week, including the global scene
This time around, the market's expectations for the non-farm payroll data are slightly lowered
From last month's addition of 303,000 jobs to this month's 243,000.
Looking at the long-term trend
from 2021 to 2023
the US has seen a continual decrease in job additions
However, in the past six months, employment figures have started to increase, indicating a
reversal from a downward to an upward trend
This suggests that the overall US economy is experiencing sustained strengthening in the near
future

The current expectation for this month is lower than the previous figure
indicating a belief that the US economy may slow down
Given the market's heightened sensitivity to when the US might initiate its first interest rate cut
this expectation could bring about significant benefits for the stock market and non-US currencies

So yesterday I was chatting with some friends about USDJPY

because the market has been on an uptrend for several consecutive months

I've been telling a lot of people to close their long positions on USDJPY as soon as the market
opens on Monday because there might be a short-term correction in the trend
However, in the long term, the strengthening of the US dollar index is expected to persist until
the end of the year
These short-term expectations may cause periodic pullbacks in the trend
This time around, the US dollar index is expected to correct first to around 104.8
With the US dollar potentially correcting, the domestic stock market, non-US currencies, and
commodities are also likely to benefit
The SP200 index reached its recent support level near 7530 in the past two weeks, and it's
expected to rebound to around 7750 this week
All resource-related stocks are anticipated to experience significant gains

After understanding this basic market expectation

We'll continue analyzing the price trends of individual stocks and various assets later on
The non-farm payroll data is released on Friday evening, and the current expectation is likely to
bring positive impact to the market throughout the week
The non-farm payroll data is released by the US Department of Labor on the first Friday of each
month
Before that, on Wednesday evening, the ADP employment data will be released
ADP is a private company, and it releases its data on the Wednesday of the same week as the
non-farm data, providing a two-day advance insight into the employment situation
This often serves as a preview for the non-farm payroll data

For example, if I initially expected the data to decrease

but after the ADP employment data is released and it turns out the actual value is significantly
higher than the market's forecast
then I must adjust my prediction for the non-farm data accordingly
This could create a bearish impact on the market
As a result, market fluctuations may start on Wednesday evening

Additionally, in the early hours of Thursday

forex traders need to pay close attention
Half an hour after the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, there will be a press conference
where Fed Chair Powell will speak
The latest market expectation is a delay in interest rate cuts until September
However, there is considerable controversy
Some believe there will be rate hikes this year, while others think rate cuts may occur between
June and September
Personally, I have a prediction on this matter
I've been bullish on the US dollar index this year
because I understand the Fed's policy

From the middle of last year until now, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and market
expectations have gone through three phases
The first was in the first half of last year when the market widely anticipated that the Fed would
quickly begin cutting interest rates
However, by September of the second half of the year, the Fed even raised interest rates once
leading to the first rise in the US dollar index
After October
the Federal Reserve once again made statements
indicating that it might start cutting interest rates in 2024
At the same time, US President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen, who was also a former
Federal Reserve Chair
both made remarks, essentially signaling to the Fed indirectly
For example, Biden stated that even if US economic data were good, it wouldn't necessarily
warrant rate hikes
Yellen went even further, directly stating that their previous monetary policy had been very
effective,
leading to economic recovery, and it was now time to consider cutting rates.

This period saw the fastest decline in the US dollar index. I noticed many US congress members
buying large amounts of US stocks,
including the speaker Pelosi even purchasing a significant amount of NVIDIA stock
So I predict the Federal Reserve will definitely align with these high-ranking officials and financial
groups
During this period, I was bullish on US stocks, bearish on the US dollar index, and also bullish on
the domestic stock market
However, there have been some changes in the situation earlier this year
Because the market's expectations for rate cuts in the US are overly optimistic
and the US is currently in a financial war, it's highly unlikely that they'll excessively cut rates.
As for this financial war, I'll provide a detailed analysis for everyone later, and you'll be able to
predict US policies accordingly
Since the beginning of the year, as the first rate decision approached
the market's confidence in US rate cuts has been diminishing
As it turns out, the US had no intention of cutting rates
leading to a significant rise in the US dollar index.

In February to March
the US stock market experienced a stagnation phenomenon. On one hand, the Federal Reserve
testified in Congress, indicating a willingness to cut interest rates
while on the other hand, US stocks struggled to rally quickly, and even stocks like Nvidia peaked
and then declined. This suggests that high-ranking US officials were selling off US stocks.
Consequently, after their sell-off,
there was a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's stance, stating that inflation couldn't be
brought down and therefore interest rates couldn't be cut. As a result, in the past few weeks, the
US stock market also experienced a major decline
dragging down our stock market and other markets as well

Understanding all this, you'll realize that

Currently high-ranking US officials have cashed out from the US stock market
The Federal Reserve has no reservations whatsoever
Therefore, in this rate decision, during the Fed Chair's press conference
he won't hint at any expectation of rate cuts
Our overall assessment for the stock market
is a downward trend with fluctuations. The forex market and commodities are also likely to face
overall bearish pressure
This contrasts with the impact of the US non-farm payroll data

Now let's comprehensively summarize the impact of these three data events
On Wednesday evening to early Thursday, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be
announced
along with a press conference featuring Fed Chair Powell
It's expected that this time, there won't be any mention of expectations for "short-term rate
cuts"
Overall, the expectation isn't significantly different from the market's anticipation of rate cuts in
September
As a result, there's some bearish impact on both the stock and forex markets, but this impact is
long-term and far-reaching

The most significant short-term impact will be from the US non-farm payroll data released on
Friday evening
The current market forecasts suggest it will be bullish for the stock market.
However, the impact of this data is short-lived, lasting only for this week or at most extending
into the first half of the following week
Therefore, the overall trend for the stock market this week leans towards an uptrend
but in the medium term, it leans towards a downtrend
The US dollar index is expected to decline this week and in the first half of the following week,
but in the medium to long term, it will continue to rise.

Does everyone understand this part?

So what's the plan for this phase? Let's break it down with analysis on the stock market, forex,
and gold and bitcoin
Now, we've previously talked about focusing on strong sectors and stocks
Let's start by analyzing sectors and individual stocks in the stock market
The Aussie market closed on the up today, which is a ripper signal. Likewise, the Asian market
seemed to bounce back from the gloom with widespread gains. This is mainly because the recent
earnings of US tech firms exceeded expectations, influencing market participants' optimism. The
Reserve Bank of Australia has also shown a real reluctance to hike rates, with inflation still on the
decline, despite slower than expected by the RBA and other markets. Last Friday, US PCE data
showed some strong performance. There's a fair dinkum chance Australia might see a similar
scenario, but the RBA ain't quite ready to hike rates.

All these factors point to one key aspect: interest rates. It's one of the market's most crucial focal
points, whether you're investing in the stock market or the forex market. Understanding these
dynamics is essential. The setting and adjustment of interest rates are closely tied to changes in
the economic cycle. Especially in the current phase, we're in the late stages of a rate hike cycle
and the beginning stages of a rate cut cycle. This is a critical period for all types of investments
and a pivotal moment for strategic positioning. During this phase, the market tends to experience
wide-ranging volatility. Our approach should be to adapt to the market by adopting strategies
focused on structural trends and selecting strong sectors and high-quality stocks.

Today's market performance is worth noting, especially the resurgence of recently

strong-performing sectors. The real estate sector, in particular, has shown promising signs. Stocks
that led the previous uptrend have undergone a period of adjustment, and many are now ripe for
attention. Among them, REITs have shown promising performances and are worth considering for
participation.

Given the current attention drawn to real estate investments in the market, rising property prices
are becoming increasingly attractive. Behind many property investments in Australia are foreign
funds. The depreciation of the Australian dollar at present adds new allure in terms of exchange
rates. As the next cycle unfolds, property prices are likely to rise, while the Australian dollar
exchange rate will also begin to appreciate. This will lead to capital once again leaving real estate
and seeking out new value opportunities.

This is the performance between the property price index and the ASX200 over the past six
months, and it's evident that the real estate sector is performing exceptionally well. After a
period of consolidation, which helped digest a lot of profit-taking, the sector has shown signs of
bottoming out and rebounding recently, indicating further strength ahead. Therefore, the key to
finding opportunities lies in identifying leading stocks and high-quality stocks within this sector.
Similarly, today's second-leading sector is the technology sector. Its performance, even in the
recent past, appears to be stronger than that of real estate stocks. This is closely related to the
current focus in the US, especially with recent technology sector earnings exceeding expectations.
This has directly triggered a rebound in tech stocks, led by AI. Additionally, with recent
discussions between China and the US in the AI field, AI stocks are increasingly in the spotlight,
driving attention towards the AI sector. The strength of the AI sector has also propelled stocks in
the broader technology field to rise.
Now, does everyone understand my investment approach?

In terms of individual stocks, today I want to talk about the high-profit stock SXG. This is a recent
top performer in the gold sector, which has been on an upward trend. With the continuous surge
in gold prices, investment opportunities have emerged. After a few days of gold correction, SXG
retraced back to its previous high point of the upward trend and showed signs of stabilization.
Because it was a strong stock previously, I've been closely monitoring it. Therefore, on Friday, I
successfully led everyone to capture this stock, resulting in a profit of 14%.
Regarding the forex market
as we just briefly analyzed, the recent direction of the US dollar index is initially downward,
followed by an upward trend
From a technical perspective,
market performance is relatively complex or it can be said each retracement tends to be intricate

The US dollar index, paying attention to the recent support level around 104.8
with key time points on early Thursday morning and Friday evening
The trend may oscillate repeatedly over the next few days
Pay close attention to three moving averages on the chart: EMA12, EMA144, and EMA169
These three lines form a Vegas tunnel, and I'll gradually teach you how to use it
Today, let's briefly talk about it
It's anticipated that the market will return to the tunnel position after oscillation, which is below
105
We may consider going long on the USD index at this level

When it comes to currency selection, my recent focus has been on USDJPY. The Bank of Japan
just held its interest rate decision last Friday
The market perceives the Japanese rate hike pace as too slow, thus continuing to short the yen
The yen has depreciated to its lowest point in 34 years
indicating a clear trend
Therefore, shorting the yen is a profitable strategy for us in the near term
All forex traders should consider joining me in this
From a technical perspective
today's high retraced lower, with the first support level around 155
and the second around 153.5

It's commonly believed that a significant drop during an uptrend could indicate a "shakeout"
scenario
If the exchange rate manages to maintain a period of sideways consolidation afterward, followed
by a gradual and slow upward movement this pattern can be further confirmed
As for the timing we're watching, it's early Thursday morning and Friday evening
After the market stabilizes gradually, I'll guide everyone to further go long. USDJPY is currently
exhibiting the most classic uptrend
Previously, during the Bank of Japan's decision to lower interest rates to negative in 2014, I
captured similar market movements
While the Bank of Japan occasionally intervenes in the forex market
it doesn't affect the overall trend
This is one of the significant opportunities we're focusing on in the near term

The trends of gold and Bitcoin appear similar but have some differences
Today, I'll briefly explain a part of it
China is a major producer of gold, but currently, its influence is greatly impacted by some major
central banks
Previously, many countries' foreign exchange reserves were used to purchase US Treasury bonds
However, in recent years, countries like China and Saudi Arabia have sold a large number of US
bonds
and instead bought gold
This reflects in their central bank gold reserve data.
So, this batch of funds has been driving the rise in gold prices
This bull market, with clear sources of funds
is relatively stable and long-term
From a technical perspective, we are closely monitoring the support level around 2300
Additionally, after the price breaks above 2340 again, it's anticipated that the next phase of the
market will rise to around 2400

The rise in Bitcoin, on the other hand, is primarily led by US capital

Since the approval process for a Bitcoin spot ETF began in the US in October last year
Bitcoin has entered a bull market
With Bitcoin halving this year, it's anticipated that the overall bull market will continue to develop
However, in the short term, the market is following the trend of US tech stocks and is
experiencing a correction
As per past patterns, after Bitcoin halving, the price typically doesn't rise in the first month, but
rather undergoes a period of correction
From the second to the third month, it gradually stabilizes and rises. Ultimately, the increase can
be anywhere from 3 to 10 times
Looking at the contract funding rate
it also indicates that the correction in Bitcoin is not yet over

The current market sentiment is rather subdued

The first rebound is anticipated to occur around the support level of 60,000
but it's expected to continue decreasing subsequently
ultimately falling to around the support level of 53,000

The news is that

The Australian Stock Exchange is expected to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of 2024
Additionally, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are set to launch in Hong Kong tomorrow
Overall, the sentiment remains mostly positive. We'll await the conclusion of the market's
consolidation phase and anticipate a resumption of the uptrend
On other cryptocurrencies
SOL has recently entered a short-term downtrend
with the occurrence of a death cross in its moving averages
Some outflow of funds has been observed, contributing to an unstable market sentiment.

The current bullish and bearish boundary is around 140, as indicated by the white line in the
chart.
A bullish outlook can be reconsidered after a breakout.
Prior to the breakout, it's advisable to remain bearish and await the completion of the bearish
sentiment in the market.

I'll continue to monitor opportunities in various cryptocurrencies

Those involved in Bitcoin trading can stay tuned for my latest updates.

Lately, many friends have been chatting with me privately, getting to know me more
Personally, I'm involved in trading in the domestic stock market, forex, gold, commodities, and
cryptocurrencies. Over the years, as I've traded across multiple assets, I've noticed the increasing
integration of global finance
The influence of American capital extends worldwide
and the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the prices of all assets
Therefore, regardless of what you're trading
it's essential to pay attention to US monetary policy
Therefore, in the near term, we need to conduct thorough analysis of US monetary policy
as well as macroeconomic, political, and financial factors.
This approach ensures that regardless of trading any asset, we consider the broader picture
which can lead to close to a hundred percent success rate

In the past decade or so

the Federal Reserve's power and influence over the world have reached their peak
The US stock market has experienced the longest bull market in history
largely due to the US's long-standing accommodative policies
However, since November 2021,
when the Federal Reserve announced its intention to implement monetary tightening, including
raising interest rates, global assets
including US stocks, have experienced a significant decline

During this period

there have been two main trends in global asset speculation
First, under the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's long-term high-interest-rate policy
the overall trend of most global assets has been downward
This includes the Australian dollar and some Australian assets
The second trend involves the targeted easing policies implemented by the United States for
certain domestic institutions
This means directly providing funds to some institutions to speculate on individual assets
As a result, the overall US stock market has still reached historic highs
However, when you look at the internal structure of its rise and fall
such as the S&P 500 index
you'll find that only a small number of heavyweight stocks have driven the overall index higher
while more than 400 stocks are still declining

So, when we see the index rising, fundamentally it's the rise of a few key heavyweight stocks
This has been a unique speculative logic in recent years
Under this logic, companies like Apple
which have seen slow revenue growth and rely mainly on high dividends and buyback policies
can still achieve historic highs in stock prices
Similarly, companies like Nvidia, Meta, and others
despite having very high price-to-earnings ratios, can still experience significant gains due to
speculative capital inflows.

Indeed, this is a typical characteristic of a "structural bull market."

It means that while the index as a whole rises, only a few companies experience gains, while
most others decline
Under the Federal Reserve's policy of withdrawing funds globally and releasing funds to a very
small number of institutions
we see assets exhibiting cyclical rises one after another
Each asset can only rise when it has strong capital support behind it
For example, last year it was Nvidia, starting from October, and now it's Bitcoin's turn
Considering Bitcoin's halving and its status as "digital gold,"
it's expected to rise for over a year, similar to previous trends
This presents a significant opportunity this year

In recent years, gold has seen significant increases, driven by central banks of various countries.
However, concerning U.S. bonds, aside from selling to the Bank of Japan, there's been a global
trend of selling
Consequently, U.S. bond yields have been on a long-term rise while bond prices have fallen
Understanding the characteristics of each asset
provides everyone with valuable insights into the assets we frequently trade,
leading to improved trading success rates.
Starting today, I'll dedicate approximately two weeks
to share the underlying logic behind the fluctuations in various assets with everyone.
Let's all commit to checking the group information every evening.
After two weeks, you'll undergo a transformation and emerge as a significantly improved
investor!

To facilitate everyone's learning

we now have welfare activities in the group for everyone to participate in
Welcome friends to join actively

Here's a summary of today's discussion

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision and non-farm payroll data have both positive and
negative impacts on the US dollar index.
The impact of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision is more long-term and stable, while
non-farm payroll data has a relatively short-term and intense effect.
Key time points to watch are Thursday early morning and Friday evening.
During this period, there are many trading opportunities in the stock market, forex market, and
gold/bitcoin.
Stay tuned to our group messages daily
where I'll lead everyone in real-time.
Starting today, we'll also share and learn the logic behind the rise and fall of various assets
We aim to master this topic in about two weeks and increase our success rate to over 85%!

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me privately or to the group assistant
That's all for today's sharing
Also, a reminder that there will be stock investment opportunities tomorrow
so make sure to stay tuned to the group
My sharing ends here for tonight
Investing is like running a marathon. The key to winning lies not in a momentary burst of energy,
but in perseverance along the way.
No matter how bewildering or challenging it may seem,
on the road of investing,
I'm with you all the way!
“Important info, no need to reply”.