I) SUMMARY DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

Dollar long
Crude oil
Gold price(USD) term interest S&P 500 US real GDP
price(USD)
rate
1213.97 13909402.17
Mean 759.14 283.66 7.03
Standard 165.68 690324.09
79.78 28.25 0.44
Error
Median 446.25 203.10 6.79 1032.24 14163350.00
Mode - - 5.63 - -
Standard 1123.71 4682005.76
541.06 191.61 2.99
Deviation
Kurtosis -0.36 -0.38 -0.22 1.37 -1.22

Skewness 1.00 0.92 0.66 1.36 0.11

Range 1852.40 622.40 11.69 4170.29 15617300.00

Minimum 226.00 79.98 2.48 95.96 7052700.00

Maximum 2078.40 702.38 14.17 4266.25 22670000.00

Sum 34920.60 13048.43 323.23 55842.49 639832500.00

Count 46.00 46.00 46.00 46.00 46.00

Confidence
Level(95.0% 160.68 56.90 0.89 333.70 1390384.09
)

Overall, the table above shows descriptive statistics about the factors that influence the price of gold.
Below is an analysis of each factor :
- Gold price: The price of gold exhibits significant fluctuation, ranging from 226 USD to 2078.4
USD. The positive skewness (1) indicates a tendency toward lower values, with some high
outliers extending the distribution. The kurtosis less than 0 (-0.36) suggests a flatter distribution
compared to the normal distribution.
- Crude Oil price(USD): The price of crude oil also shows volatility, with a range from 79.98 USD
to 702.38 USD. The positive skewness (0.92) also indicates a distribution skewed towards lower
values.
- Dollar Long Term Interest Rates: Long-term interest rates of the dollar exhibit relatively low
volatility compared to gold and crude oil, with positive skewness indicating a slight skew towards
lower values in the distribution.
- S&P 500: This index shows significant volatility (range from 95.96 to 4266.25), with high
skewness (1.36) indicating a large skew towards lower values, as well as the presence of high
outliers.
- US real GDP: The real GDP of the US shows more stability compared to other factors, with very
low skewness (0.11), indicating a relatively symmetric distribution.
In summary, the descriptive statistics table reveals that factors such as gold price, crude oil price
exhibit large fluctuations and asymmetric distributions, while factors such as S&P 500 index, and US
real GDP show lower volatility and relatively stable distributions.

CORRELATION
1) Gold price vs Crude oil price
> cor(`Gold price`,`Crude oil price`)
[1] 0.7987477
=>A correlation coefficient of approximately 0.7987477 suggests a strong positive
relationship between the prices of gold and crude oil. This means that when the price of gold
tends to increase, the price of crude oil also tends to increase, and vice versa.

Gold price
800
700
600
Crude oil price

500
400
300
200
100
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Gold price

2) Gold price vs Long term interest rate

cor(`Gold price`, `DLT interest rate`)
[1] -0.704255
=> The correlation coefficient between the gold price and long-term interest rates is
approximately -0.704. This negative correlation suggests that there is a tendency for the
gold price to decrease as long-term interest rates increase, and vice versa.
 Gold price

0.16
0.14

Long term interest rate

0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Gold price

3) Gold price vs S&P 500 index

cor(`Gold price`,SP)
[1] 0.8414541
=> The correlation coefficient of approximately 0.841 between the gold price and the S&P
index indicates a strong positive correlation between these two variables. This means that
when the price of gold tends to increase, the S&P 500 index also tends to increase, and vice
versa.

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
S&P 500

2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Gold price

4) Gold price vs US Real GDP

cor(`Gold price`, `real GDP`)
[1] 0.8260964
=> The correlation coefficient of approximately 0.826 between the gold price and US real
GDP indicates a strong positive correlation between these two variables. This means that
 when the price of gold tends to increase, the US real GDP also tends to increase, and vice
versa.

25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000
real GDP

10,000,000

5,000,000

0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Gold price

HISTORGRAM OF GOLD

Histograms provide valuable insights into the frequency and distribution of values within a
dataset, allowing us to identify patterns and central tendencies. In this case the histogram of gold
price is presented in bimodal distribution:

1. X-axis: Represents the price of gold, showing the range of prices observed in the dataset.
2. Y-axis: Represents the frequency of each price point, indicating how often each price
occurred within the dataset.
3. Most Frequent Price Point: The peak of the histogram, around $1250, indicates that this
price point occurred most frequently in the dataset. This suggests that $1250 was a
common price level for gold during the period under consideration.
4. Symmetrical Distribution: The observation of a somewhat symmetrical distribution
implies that there were approximately equal numbers of gold prices above and below
$1250. This symmetry suggests a balanced distribution of prices around the central
tendency.
II) Testing two independent means
1) Testing two variances
- After running the F test to compare two variances:

- Analyze the results:

 H0: the variance of the gold price in the contractionary policy is equal to the variance
of the gold price in the expansionary policy.
 H1: the variance of the gold price in the contractionary policy differs from the
variance of the gold price in the expansionary policy.

 The p-value associated with the F-statistic is 0.9592, which is greater than the typical
significance level of 0.05.
 The confidence interval for the ratio of variances is from 0.418227 to 2.366613,
which includes the value of 1.
 Since the p-value is greater than the significance level, we fail to reject the null
hypothesis. Additionally, the confidence interval includes the value of 1, further
supporting the null hypothesis.
- In summary, based on the given F-test results, we do not have sufficient evidence to
conclude that the variance of the gold price in the contractionary policy differs from the
variance of the gold price in the expansionary policy.
2) Testing two independent means (Unknown population variance)
- Assume equal variance, after running the t-test for two independent means:
- Analyze the results:
 H0: there is no significant difference in the mean gold prices between the
contractionary and expansionary monetary policy groups.
 H1: there is a significant difference in the mean gold prices between the
contractionary and expansionary monetary policy groups

 The t-statistic is -0.39979 with 44 degrees of freedom.

 The p-value associated with the t-statistic is 0.6912.
 The confidence interval for the difference in means between the two groups is from -
392.3402 to 262.4487.
 Since the p-value is greater than the typical significance level of 0.05, we fail to reject
the null hypothesis. Additionally, the confidence interval includes the value of 0,
which further supports the null hypothesis.
- In summary, based on the given two-sample t-test results, we do not have sufficient
evidence to conclude that there is a significant difference in the mean gold prices between
the contractionary and expansionary monetary policy groups.