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4.4 Correlation and Simple Linear Regression

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20 views19 pages

4.4 Correlation and Simple Linear Regression

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joseph.mirabete.ab
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Mathematics in the Modern World – UNIT 4

Correlation &
Simple Linear Regression

Mathematics & Physics Department


University of Santo Tomas

Prepared by:
Asst. Prof. Xandro Alexi A. Nieto
Correlation

To determine the direction and magnitude


of the linear relationship between two
quantitative variables,
X (independent variable) and Y (dependent
variable).
• Dependent variable – the variable which is being
predicted
• Independent variable – the variable being used as the
basis of prediction
Correlation
Correlation
Correlation
Correlation

Pearson Product Moment Correlation

𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − σ 𝑥 σ 𝑦
𝑟=
2 2 2 2
𝑛 σ𝑥 − σ𝑥 𝑛 σ𝑦 − σ𝑦

=PEARSON(X:Y) or =CORREL(X:Y)
Correlation

• Additionally, when we square the correlation r (r2), we


have what we call coefficient of determination.
• It gives the proportion of the variance (fluctuation) of one
variable that is predictable from the other variable.
• It measure of how well the regression line represents the
data. If the regression line passes exactly through every
point on the scatter plot, it would be able to explain all of
the variation. The further the line is away from the points,
the less it is able to explain.
Correlation

• It represents the percent of the data that is the closest to


the line of best fit.

• For example, if r = 0.922, then r 2 = 0.850, which means


that 85% of the total variation in y can be explained by the
linear relationship between x and y (as described by the
regression equation). The other 15% of the total variation
in y remains unexplained.
Correlation

Example: For the following data on heights and weights of 14


UAAP Basketball players, determine if heights and
weights are correlated.
Height, X Weight, Y
77 230
76 225
77 241
72 209
76 225
77 235
77 228
74 214
74 240
75 233
74 225
76 220
74 222
76 225
Sums: 1055 3172
Correlation

Height, X Weight, Y X2 Y2 XY
77 230 5929 52900 17710 n σ xy − σ x σ y
76 225 5776 50625 17100 r=
2 2 2 2
77 241 5929 58081 18557 n σx − σx n σy − σy
72 209 5184 43681 15048
76 225 5776 50625 17100
77 235 5929 55225 18095 14 239135 − (1055)(3172)
r=
77 228 5929 51984 17556 [14 79533 − 1055 2 ][14 719740 − 3172 2 ]
74 214 5476 45796 15836
74 240 5476 57600 17760 r = 0.563
75 233 5625 54289 17475
74 225 5476 50625 16650
76 220 5776 48400 16720
74 222 5476 49284 16428
76 225 5776 50625 17100
Sums: 1055 3172 79533 719740 239135

10
Simple Linear Regression

To determine the equation of the best-fit line


(least squares error)

Equation of the best fit line: Y = a + bX

n σ xy − σ x σ y
b= SLOPE =SLOPE(Y:X)
2 2
n x − σx
σ
Y-INTERCEPT
σy σx =INTERCEPT(Y:X)
a= −b
n n
11
Simple Linear Regression

Example: For the following data on heights and weights of 14


UAAP Basketball players, determine the equation
of the best-fit line
Height, X Weight, Y
77 230
76 225
77 241
72 209
76 225
77 235
77 228
74 214
74 240
75 233
74 225
76 220
74 222
76 225
1055 3172

12
Simple Linear Regression
Height, X Weight, Y X2 Y2 XY
77 230 5929 52900 17710 n σ xy − σ x σ y
76 225 5776 50625 17100 b= 2
n σx − σx 2
77 241 5929 58081 18557
72 209 5184 43681 15048 14 239135 − (1055)(3172)
76 225 5776 50625 17100 b=
77 235 5929 55225 18095
14 79533 − 1055 2
77 228 5929 51984 17556 b = 3.272
74 214 5476 45796 15836
74 240 5476 57600 17760
75 233 5625 54289 17475
σy σx
74 225 5476 50625 16650 a= −b
76 220 5776 48400 16720 n n
74 222 5476 49284 16428 3172 1055
76 225 5776 50625 17100 a= − (3.272)
1055 3172 79533 719740 239135
14 14
a = −20.02

13

13
Simple Linear Regression

Equation of the best fit line:

Y = − 20.02 + 3.272X,

where Y is the weight (lbs)


and X is the height (inches)

14

14
Simple Linear Regression

Estimate the weight of a


player with
height of 71 inches.

Y = -20.02+3.272X
Y = -20.02 +3.272(71)
Y = 212.292

15

15
Simple Linear Regression

Example: Did you know that simple linear regression


is used to transform your raw grades to
transmuted grades.

Determine the equation of the best fit line


for raw grades (x) and transmuted grades
(y) for 50% passing.

16
Correlation and SLR

CORRELATION DOES
NOT IMPLY
CAUSATION!

17
Correlation and SLR

https://youtu.be/8HLtFv_KqoE
18
END OF UNIT 4.4

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