DETAILED LESSON PLAN IN EXPERIMENTAL AND THEORETICAL PROBABILITY

Prepared By: Jessa Mae P. Panuncillo BEED 2 ES

I. Objectives: At the end of the lesson, the learners should be able to:
a. describe experimental and theoretical probability;
b. perform an experimental probability and record result by listing;
c. record favorable outcomes in a simple experiment (e.g. tossing a
coin, spinning wheel, etc.); and
d. recognize the importance of understanding probability in real-life
situations.
II. Subject Matter:
a. Topic: Experimental and Theoretical Probability
b. References: Teaching Mathematics in the Intermediate Grades – Genesis
G. Camarista, LPT, PhD & Ian B. Oriano, LPT, BEEd page
302 – 310. M6SP-IVg-19
c. Materials: Visual representations, cartolina, pentelpen, and chalk.
III. Procedure:
Teacher’s Activity Pupil’s Activity

A. Preliminary Activities
1. Prayer
You are good and
wise I will praise you when I
rise. Jesus, hear this prayer I
send Bless my family and my The pupil will lead a prayer.
friends. Jesus, help my eyes
to see All the good you send
to me. Jesus, help my ears to
hear Calls for help from far
and near. Jesus, help my
feet to go in the way that You
will show. Jesus, help my
hands to do All things loving,
kind, and true. Jesus, guard
me through this day in all I do
and all I say. Amen.

2. Greetings
“Good afternoon, “Good afternoon, teacher!”
class!”

3. Attendance “Okay, teacher!”

“Very good, class.
Everyone is present today!”

4. Classroom Management The students will attentively listen.

The teacher will remind
the rules to be followed during
 class hours.
a. Be polite.
b. No transferring of sits.
c.Raise your right hand
if you want to answer
or to say something.

B. Lesson Proper
1. Engage: “Probability
Prediction Challenge”
The teacher will
conduct an interactive game
quiz to engage students in
predicting outcomes based The students will actively participate.
on theoretical probability.
The class will be playing the
"Pass the McMystery Fries"
game, where each question
will be attached to a fry. As
they pass the McMystery
Fries, they will sing the "5
Little Monkeys Humpy
Dumpty" song. Whoever
holds the fries at the end of
the song will choose a fry
and answer the
corresponding question.
"Alright, class! Today,
we’re going to play “Pass the
McMystery Fries”. Here's the
deal, we’ll pass around the
McMystery Fries while singing
“5 Little Monkeys Humpy
Dumpty”.
When the song stops, the
person holding the fries picks
one and answers the attached
probability question.
Simple, right? Let's dive in “Okay, teacher!”
and have some fun!"

Instruction: Listen each

scenario carefully and predict
the outcome based on
theoretical probability.
1. Scenario: A fair six-sided
die is rolled. What is the
probability of rolling an even
number? “B, teacher!”
a. 1/6
b. ½
“Correct!”
2. Scenario: A standard deck
of 52 playing cards is
shuffled. What is the
probability of drawing a red
card (heart or diamonds)?
a. 26/52 “A, teacher!”
b. 13/36
“Very good!”
3. Scenario: A jar contains
10 red marbles, 5 blue
marbles, and 3 green
marbles. What is the
probability of randomly
selecting a blue marble?
a. 1/6 “B, teacher!”
b. 5/18
“Good!”
4. Scenario: A spinner is
divided into 8 equal sections
numbered 1 through 8. What
is the probability of spinner
landing on an odd number?
A. ¼ “B, teacher!”
b. ½
“Very good!”
5. Scenario: A coin is flipped.
What is the probability of
getting tails?
a.1/6 “B, teacher!”
b.1/2
“Alright class, since we got
all the correct answers, we “V-E-R-Y G-O-O-D, very good! very
will give ourselves a very good! Very, very good!”
good clap!”
2. Explore:
In this activity the
teacher will divide the class The students will participate.
into 4 groups. Each group The answers will be based on the
has 4 sets of experiments to situation.
do. The teacher will design
the classroom as typical
“peryahan” which has
different stations and games
to explore. Each group is
expected to visit all the 4
stations within 20 minutes.
 This means that each group
will stay in each station for 5
minutes only.
To prevent time
consumption, each of the four
groups will follow a different
map.
Group 1: Group 2:

Group 3: Group 4:

Station 1: Rolling a Rubik’s

Cube
Steps:
1. Roll the Rubik’s cube for 5
times, record the results on a
piece of paper.
2. Determine which color
appeared most frequently
3. Calculate the experimental
probability of rolling a color
which appeared most
frequently
4. Calculate the theoretical
probability of rolling a white
face.
Note: Present the results in a
tabular form.
Rubik’s cube:

Tabular form:

Roll Result
Roll Result
1
1 Red
2

3 2 Blue

4 3 White

5 4 White

5 Green
Station 2: Tossing a Fair
Coin
1. Toss the coin for 5 times,
record the results on a piece
of paper.
2. Determine which of the
two faces appeared least
frequently.
3. Calculate the experimental
probability of landing on a
head.
4. Calculate the theoretical
probability of landing on tail.
Note: In a piece of paper,
present your output in a
tabular form.
Tossing a fair coin:

Tabular form:
Toss Result
Toss Result
1
1 Heads
2
2 Tails
3
3 Tails
4
4 Heads
5
5 Heads
Station 3: Selecting Three
Numbers from the Set of 5
Number Cards (1. 4, 9, 16,
and 25)
Steps:
1. Select three numbers from
the set of 5 number cards.
Record the result on a piece
of paper.
2. Return to the set the 3
number cards you’ve
selected. Repeat the
selection process for 3 times.
Record the results.
3. Show the list of all the
possible outcomes of the
experiment using the tree
diagram.
4. Determine how many
possible outcomes are there.
5. Calculate the experimental
probability of selecting at least
two odd numbers.
6. Calculate the theoretical
probability of selecting at least
one even number.
7. Calculate the theoretical
probability of selecting any
number from the set of 5
number cards.
Cards:
 Selection Selected
numbers Selection Selected
numbers
1
2 1 4, 9, 16
3 2 1, 9, 25
3 4, 16, 25
Tree diagram:

Station 4: Spinning the Wheel

of mathematicians. The wheel
is evenly divided into 5
different sectors with
corresponding names of
mathematicians.
Steps:
1. Spin the wheel for 5 times.
Record the result using a
table.
2. Show the list of results using
a table.
3. Determine which name of
mathematician appeared most
frequently.
4. Determine which name of
mathematician has the
smallest probability of
selection.
5. Calculate the theoretical
probability of spinning a name
of any mathematician
3. Explain:
The teacher will discuss
the topic about theoretical and
experimental probability. “Okay, teacher!”
“Alright class, let’s
discuss our lesson for today!
Shall we start?”
Probability is the measure of The students will listen.
how likely the event will occur.
The likelihood of an event to
occur can be presented using
the probability line.

“Please read the statement on

the board.” The students will read the
Probability is always statement on the board.
between 0 and 1. Zero
probability indicates that the
event is impossible to occur
while perfect probability
implies that the event is
certain to happen. Events
with less than ½ probability
or 50% chance are said to be
unlikely to happen. On the
other hand, events with
greater than ½ probability or
50% chance are likely to
happen. The probability of an
event to happen can be
expressed in a form of
fraction, decimal, ratio, or
percent
“As we go along the
exploration of some concepts
 on probability, we could
expect to encounter such
terms like experiment, event,
outcome, sample space, and
sample point. For better
understanding of these
terms, let’s define them”.
 Experiment or trial is any “Okay, teacher!"
procedure that can be
repeatedly done and has a
well-defined set of possible
results.
 Event refers to one or more
results or outcomes of the
experiment.
 Outcome could be simply
understood as the result of
the experiment.
 Sample space is the set of
all the possible results of the
experiment and the individual
outcome is termed as the
sample point.
Each of these terms
could be distinguished from
the other using the table
below Let’s use the given
data in our Lesson Opener.

To calculate the chance

of getting a prime number as
a result of throwing a die the
following formula could be of
great help.

Experimental vs.
Theoretical Probability
 In dealing with some
probability problems,
sometimes we perform some
experiments to solve
problems. On the contrary,
there are some probability
problems that do not require
an actual experiment but just
an analysis of the situation will
do.
“Okay class, read
altogether.” The class will read all together
In experimental the lesson pasted on the
probability, the chance of board.
something to happen is based
on the actual result of the
experiment. It is calculated
during experiments, direct
observation, experience, or
practice. With theoretical
probability, you don’t actually
conduct an experiment (i.e.
roll a die or conduct a survey).
Instead, you use your
knowledge about a situation,
some logical reasoning and/or
known formula to calculate the
probability of an event
happening. These can be
better understood through the
given examples below.

Example 1
Ivan flipped a fair coin 10
times and got 4 heads. What
is the experimental probability
of the coin landing on heads?
Solution: We can find the
experimental probability this
way

There were 4 flips that

showed heads out of 10 flips
attempted, so

P (heads) =4/10 or 2/5 or 40%

 Example 2
Suppose you are going
to flip a coin once. What is the
theoretical probability of the
coin landing on head?
Solution: A coin has two
faces, a head and a tall. So,

Since, there is only one

head out of the two faces, so
we have

P (heads) = ½ or 50%

In experimental
probability, the probability of
an event is based upon the
actual outcome of the
experiment while in theoretical
probability, there’s no need to
conduct an actual experiment
to determine how likely the
event will happen.
“Did you all get it class?”
“Okay, very good!” “Yes, teacher!”
4. Elaborate: (By Pair)
The students will pair The students will answer.
themselves and answer the
table given. Answers:
Instruction: Complete the table
below.

Experiment Event Favorable Possible

Outcomes Outcomes/
Sample
Space
1. Flipping Getting a
a fair coin. head
2. Rolling a Getting
die an even
number
3. Drawing Drawing
a card from a face
the deck of card
52 cards
4. Spinning Getting a
a wheel of primary
primary color
colors and
secondary
colors

5. Evaluate:
Instruction: Read and analyze
the given statement and
answer the following The students will answer the given
questions concisely. questions based on their
In tossing a fair coin, the understanding.
theoretical probability of
getting either a head or a tail
is ½ or 50%. However, when
you tossed a fair coin for 6
times and it landed on head
for 2 times, the experimental
probability of landing on head
is 2/6 or 1/3 or 33.33%. What
if you’re going to continue the
1 or tossing of coin for more
than 6 times? Try to continue
the tossing of coin for more
than 6 times depending on
your choice of how many
times you are going to do the Answer:
tossing of coin, then answer
the following questions:
1. The relationship between
1. What relationship can you experimental and theoretical
form out of the numerical probabilities in coin tossing tends
values of experimental and to converge as the number of
theoretical probability as you trials increases beyond 6.
continue to do the tossing of
coin for more than 6 times?
2. This convergence illustrates
2. What conclusion or the law of large numbers,
generalization can you make showing that with more trials,
out of the activity? observed outcomes align more
closely with expected
probabilities, leading to a more
accurate representation of the
underlying probability model.
 IV. Generalization: The students will answer the reflective
questions based on their learning and
The teacher will ask reflective opinion.
questions:
1. What is experimental and “Theoretical probability
theoretical probability? describes how likely an event is to
occur. Experimental probability
describes how frequently an event
actually occurred in an
experiment, teacher!”

“As a student, I noticed that

2. Based on the experiment when rolling a Rubik's Cube,
conducted with rolling a sometimes the experimental
Rubik’s Cube multiple times probability of getting a specific
and calculating experimental color didn't match what we
and theoretical probabilities. expected from the theoretical
How does the experimental probability. At first, I thought it
probability of rolling a specific might always match, but then I
color compare to its realized that each roll is random,
theoretical probability? so sometimes the results can be
different. So, even though the
theoretical probability gives us a
good idea, the actual results can
sometimes surprise us because of
the randomness of each roll,
teacher.”

“The favorable outcomes for

3. In an experiment involving rolling an even number on a six-
rolling a six-sided die, what sided die are 2, 4, and 6,
are the favorable outcomes if teacher!”
we’re interested in rolling an
even number?
“As a sixth-grade student,
4. Why is it important for us, learning about probability feels like
as sixth graders, to learn unlocking a secret code to
about probability? understanding the world around
me in a more meaningful way,
teacher!”

V. Assignment:
The teacher will give assignment to the students.
NAME:
CLASS:
DATE:
1. Experimental Probability is?
a. What will happen.
b. What actually happens.
c. What should happen.
d. What I think happens.
2. Theoretical Probability is?
a. What Should happen.
b. What does happen.
c. What Will happen.
d. What I want to happen.

3. What is the Theoretical Probability of not landing on red?

a. 25%
b. 50%
c. 65%
d. 66.7%

4.The bar graph shows the results of spinning the spinner 200 times. What is
the experimental probability of landing on a 3?
a.

b.

c.
d.

5. The arrow is spun 15 times and landed 4 times on the section labeled Q. Which
statement is true?
a.

b. c.

d.

6. Shannon has a bag of jelly beans. She removed one jelly bean, recording the
color, and then replaced it. She repeated the process 44 times and record her results
in the table. What is the experimental probability of her selecting a red jelly bean?
a. b.

c. d.