Probability distributions

By
Dr. Ameer kadhim Hussein.
M.B.Ch.B. FICMS (Community Medicine).
 LEARNING OUTCOMES
Understand selected continuous distributions and
how to use them to calculate probabilities in real-
world problems.

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 Probability distributions
1.Discrete probability distributions are the binomial
distribution and Poisson distribution.
2. A continuous probability distribution is a
probability density function. The area under the
smooth curve is equal to 1 and the frequency of
occurrence of values between any two points
equals the total area under the curve between the
two points and the x-axis .
 The normal distribution
The normal distribution is the most important
distribution in biostatistics. It is frequently called
the Gaussian distribution. It is used for continuous
variables.
The two parameters of the normal distribution are
the mean (µ) and the standard deviation (σ). The
graph has a familiar bell-shaped curve.
The normal distribution
 Graph of a normal distribution
(Gaussian distribution)
1. It is symmetrical around the mean .
2. The mean, median and mode are all equal.
3. The total area under the curve above the x-axis
is 1 square unit. Therefore 50% is to the right of
mean and 50% is to the left of mean.
4. Perpendiculars of:
±1 (σ) contain about 68%;
±2 (σ) contain about 95%;
±3 (σ) contain about 99.7%
of the area under the curve.
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 The standard normal distribution

A normal distribution is determined by µ and σ.

The normal distribution creates a family of
distributions depending on whatever the values
of µ and σ are.
The most important member of that family is the
standard normal distribution which has µ =0 and
σ =1.
 Standard z score

The standard z score is obtained by creating a

variable z whose value is

Given the values of µ and σ we can convert a value

of x to a value of z and find its probability using
the table of normal curve areas.
How to transform normal distribution (X) to standard
normal distribution (Z)?
This is done by the following formula:
x
z

Example:
If X is normally distributed with µ = 3, σ = 2. Find the
value of standard normal Z, If X= 6?
Answer: x 63
z   1.5
 2
 Skewed Data
Data may have a positive skewness (long tail to
the right, or a negative skewness (long tail to the
left).
 Kurtosis
Kurtosis indicates data that are bunched together
or spread out.
Data that are bunched together give a tall, thin
distribution which is not normal. This is called
leptokurtic.
Data that are spread out give a low, flat
distribution which is not normal. This is called
platykurtic.
Kurtosis
 Estimation
LEARNING OUTCOMES
After studying this chapter, the student will
1. Understand the importance and basic
principles of estimation.
2. be able to calculate interval estimates for a
variety of parameters.
3. be able to interpret a confidence interval from
both a practical and a probabilistic viewpoint.
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Statistical inference is the procedure by which
we reach a conclusion about a population on the
basis of the information contained in a sample
drawn from that population. Estimation involves
the use of the data in the sample to calculate the
corresponding parameter in the population from
which the sample was drawn.
A point estimate is a single numerical value used
to estimate the corresponding population
parameter.
An interval estimate consists of two numerical
values that with a specified degree of confidence,
we feel includes the parameter being estimated.
General expression for an interval estimate

Reliability coefficient = Z (1- a/2)

Standard error =

The quantity obtain by multiplying the reliability

factors by standard error is called precision of the
estimate or margin of error
Table of confidence coefficient
(confidence level)

Confidence Coefficients Z (1- a/2)

0.9 (90%) 1.645

0.95 (95%) 1.96

0.99 (99%) 2.58

 Confidence interval for a population
mean
The quantity 1- a is called the confidence coefficient
or confidence level .
The interval estimate for  is expressed as:

The area of the curve of that is outside the area of

the interval is called a, and the area inside the interval
is called 1- a.
 Example

Suppose a researcher , interested in obtaining an

estimate of the average level of some enzyme in a
certain human population, takes a sample of 10
individuals, determines the level of the enzyme in
each, and computes a sample mean =22
Suppose further it is known that the variable of
interest is approximately normally distributed with a
population variance of 45. We wish to estimate .
(a=0.05)
 Solution

 1- a=0.95→ a=0.05 x  22
 variance = σ2 = 45 → σ= 45, n=10
 95%confidence interval for  is given by:
 x ± Z (1- a/2) /n
 Z (1- a/2) = 0.95= 1.96
 22 ± 1.96 ( 45 / 10) →
 (22-4.1578, 22+4.1578) → (17.84, 26.16)
Confidence interval for the difference of two
population means (population variances are known)

When the population variances are known, the

100(1-a) percent confidence interval
for is given by
 Example
A research team is interested in the difference between serum
uric acid levels in patients with and without Down's
syndrome.
In a large hospital for the treatment of the mentally retarded, a
sample of 12 individuals with Down's syndrome yielded a
mean of = 4.5 mg/100 ml. In a general hospital a sample
of 15 normal individuals of the same age and sex were found
to have a mean value of = 3.4 mg/100 ml. If it is
reasonable to assume that the two populations of values are
normally distributed with variances equal to 1 and 1.5, find the
95% confidence interval for .
 Solution
n1 = 12 = 4.5 =1
n2 = 15 = 3.4 = 1.5
The point estimate for is
= 4.5 - 3.4 = 1.1

Standard error :

The 95% confidence interval = 1.1 ± 1.96 (.4282)

(0.26, 1.94)
Confidence interval for a population proportion

The 100(1- a) confidence interval for p is given

by:
 Example
A research study obtained data regarding sexual behavior
from a sample of unmarried men and women between the
ages of 20 and 44 residing in geographic areas characterized
by high rates of sexually transmitted diseases and admission
to drug programs. Fifty percent of 1229 respondents
reported that they never used a condom. Construct a 95
percent confidence interval for the population proportion
never using a condom.
Solution
 Confidence interval for the difference of two
population proportions

The 100(1- a) percent confidence interval for p1

– p2 is given by:
 Example

In a sample of 323 adults (68 female and 255

males). In that sample 31 of the female and 53 of
the males were using internet in the internet café.
We wish to construct 99 % confident interval for
the difference between the proportions of adults
(female-male)go to internet café.
 Solution
31 53
ˆF
p   0.4559 , p
ˆM   0.2078
68 255

ˆ (1  P
P ˆ ) ˆ (1  P
P ˆ )
ˆ P
(P ˆ )Z F F
 M M
F M a
1 nF nM
2

The 99% C. I is
0.4559(1  0.4559) 0.2078(1  0.2078)
(0.4559  0.2078)  2.58 
68 255
0.2481 ± 2.58(0.0655) = ( 0.07914 , 0.4171 )
 Home work

Example 1:
A physical therapist wished to estimate, with 99
percent confidence, the mean maximal
strength of a particular muscle in a certain
group of individuals. He is willing to assume
that strength scores are approximately normally
distributed with a variance of 144. A sample of
15 subjects who participated in the experiment
yielded a mean of 84.3.
 Example 2

Punctuality of patients in keeping appointments is of

interest to a research team. In a study of patient flow
through the offices of general practitioners, it was
found that a sample of 35 patients was 17.2 minutes
late for appointments, on the average. Previous
research had shown the standard deviation to be about
8 minutes. The population distribution was felt to
be normal. What is the 90 percent confidence interval
for m, the true mean amount of time late for
appointments?
Home work
Home work
 References
Biostatistics: A Foundation for Analysis in the
Health Sciences, 11th Edition Wayne W. Daniel,
Chad L. Cross ISBN: 978-1-119-49657-1
December 2018.

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Thank you