NMIMS Global Access

School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)

Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2023 Examination

Q1. Bad gums may mean a bad mood. Researchers discovered that 85% of people who have
suffered a bad mood had periodontal disease, an inflammation of the gums. Only 29% of healthy
people have this disease. Suppose that in a certain community bad moods are quite rare, occurring
with only 10% probability. If someone has periodontal disease, what is the probability that he or
she will have a bad mood?

Ans.

Below is the information given in the question asked.

 85% of people who have suffered a bad mood had periodontal disease.
 29% of healthy people have periodontal disease.
 In a certain community, 10% people have bad mood.

To Find:

The probability of having bad mood in presence of periodontal disease in a community of 10%
population having bad mood.

Solution:

Suppose the presence of periodontal disease = A

Suppose the presence of bad mood = B

From given information:

 The probability of bad mood is,

P(B) = .1

 The probability of not having bad mood is,

P(B’) = 1-P(B) = 1-.1 = .9

 The probability of having periodontal disease without bad mood,

P(A/B’) = .29

 The probability of having periodontal disease in presence of bad mood,

P(A/B) = .85

According to baye’s theorm:

P(A/B) = P(B/A) * P(A) * 1/P(B)

Let’s first calculate the Probability [P(A)] of having periodontal disease,

P(A) = P(A/B) *P(B) + P(A/B’) * P(B’)

P(A) = .85 * .1 + .29 * .9 = .85 + .261 = .346
Now as per baye’s formula,

P(B/A) = P(A/B) / P(A) * 1/P(B)

= .85 * .1 / .346
= .247

Hence, the probability of someone with periodontal disease will have a bad mood is .247

Below is the tree diagram of the problem,

Q2. Using MS-EXCEL show the Regression model, consider ‘Instagram followers’ as dependent
variable and ‘no of post per day’ as an independent variable. Write the interpretation of EXCEL
Tables. Write the conclusion on the fitting of your model also.

Ans.

Introduction

Regression analysis is the part of statistical modelling which use to determine the relationship
between two or more variable. In MS excel, it is very easy to identify the regression relationship.
Relationship between two variables is called as Linear regression analysis and relationship of
more than 2 variables is known as multi regression analysis.

Regression analysis is an analysis that show relationship between dependent [variable which we
tried to understand and predict] and Independent variable [factor help to predict the value of
dependent variable] and produce an equation.

MS-Excel provide the inbuilt method to calculate the regression. Regression feature will be
available in Data tab of option bar of MS-Excel. If regression analysis option is not visible on
menu under Data tab then first install the same by following below steps.
 Go to File excel menu bar.
 Click on Options option.
 Further click on Add-ins.
 Select Analysis ToolPak and click on Go button.
 Now go to Data tab of menu and Data Analysis option will be visible at the end.
Steps to follow regression analysis on excel

As mentioned in question, we have below two variables.

 Dependent Variable: Instagram Follower
 Independent Variable: Number of post per day

In first step, we will copy the data of both the variables [given in the question] in some sheet of
excel sheet.
 Click on Data tab of Excel menu.
 Click on Data Analysis option.
 Select the list of values for Y axis [Dependent variable].
 Select the list of values for X axis [Independent Variable].
 Chose option of Labels.
 Click on Ok button.

SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression
Statistics
Multiple R 0.110590242
R Square 0.012230202
Adjusted R Square -0.077567053
Standard Error 63.02825921
Observations 13

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
541.054712
Regression 1 541.0547129 9 0.136197946 0.719095592
Residual 11 43698.17606 3972.56146
Total 12 44239.23077

Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
9.03583858
Intercept 365.0211268 40.39703934 4 2.01618E-06 276.1078427 453.9344109
-
2 4.063380282 11.01037698 0.36905006 0.719095592 20.17029607 28.29705663

There are three components of the regression analysis data generated from MS-Excel.
1) Summary Output: This section provides the basic statistics about the regression model,
include the multiple correlation coefficient (R), adjusted R square, the standard error of
the estimate, and the number of observations. These statistics provide an overall view of
how well the regression model fits the data.
2) ANOVA: This section provides the analysis of variance. This table display the regression
model as a whole, and the significance of independent variable.
 Df refers to degree of freedom.
  SS refers to sum of squares.
 MS is mean square.
 F is f statistics that test the overall significance of the model.
 Significance F that is the P- value of F.

The most essential component after the ANOVA table is coefficients. This allows to create the
linear regression equation in Excel.

y=bx+a

where, b = coefficient
a = intercept

y = 4.063 x + 365.02

put the value of x = first independent value = 2

y= 4.063 *2 + 365.02 = 373.146

This is the prediction number of “no of follower” increase when “when no of post is 2”.

Conclusion:
Regression is very useful statistical method. By using this, we can compare the different variables
relationship and impact on each other. This tool play a vital role in finance, forecasting etc.
The slope 4.063 represent the estimate change in Instagram follower for every increase in no of
post.

Q 3A): 1000 light bulbs with a mean life of 120 days are installed in a new factory and their
length of life is normally distributed with standard deviation of 20 days.
If it is decided to replace all the bulbs together, what interval should be allowed between
replacements if not more than 10% should expire before replacement?

Ans.
Mean life of light bulb (μ) = 120
Standard deviation (σ) = 20 days
Number of light bulbs (n) = 1000
Percentage of bulbs that should not expire before replacement = 90% = 0.9

Need to find the interval between replacement such that not more than 10% of the bulb expire
before replacement.

z-value for 95th percentile (100%-10%) is approx. 1.645

It is known that length of the life of the bulb is normal. So we can use standard normal
distribution value of x (length of life of bulb) for the given z-value.

z = (x - μ)/ σ

1.645 = (x – 120) /20

x = (1.645 *20) + 120
x = 153.9 days (approx.)
Therefore, the interval between replacements should be around 154 days to ensure that not more
than 10% of bulbs expire before replacement.
Q 3B): calculate the average age of migrants for both the categories of gender and write your
interpretation.

Ans.

First calculate total of male and female migrant as per the data given in question,

Total of male migrant = 98,34,738 + 1,09,59,506 + 1,24,25,108 + 1,26,83,733 + 1,31,97,283 +

1,30,45,214 + 1,21,34,009 + 1,20,60,030 + 1,09,00,143 + 97,04,026 + 79,40,152 +61,61,754 +
54,01,736 + 36,87,082 + 26,62,421 + 13,41,572 + 14,61,296 = 14,55,99,803

Total of female migrant = 91,27,975 + 99,58,059 + 1,14,51,227 + 1,65,18,666 + 3,36,58,466 +

3,75,22,017 + 3,42,86,096 + 3,30,54,887 + 2,72,61,236 + 2,34,47,716 + 1,78,42,986 +
1,51,92,910 + 1,43,47,372 + 1,01,41,196 + 70,33,728 + 34,93,001 + 42,53,695 = 30,85,91,233

Calculate the median of age group given.

Age Group Median Of Age

0-4 2
5-9 7
10-14 12
15-19 17
20-24 22
25-29 27
30-34 32
35-39 37
40-44 42
45-49 47
50-54 52
55-59 57
60-64 62
65-69 68
70-74 72
75-79 77
80-85 82

Now, we can calculate the total weighted age for each gender by multiply the median of age with
migrated number of that gender and age group.

Xw [weighted age for male] = 98,34,738 *2 + 1,09,59,506 *7+ 1,24,25,108*12 + 1,26,83,733

*17+ 1,31,97,283*22 + 1,30,45,214*27 + 1,21,34,009*32 + 1,20,60,030*37 + 1,09,00,143*42 +
97,04,026*47 + 79,40,152 *52+61,61,754*57 + 54,01,736*62 + 36,87,082*68 + 26,62,421*72 +
13,41,572 *77 + 14,61,296*82 = 4,61,66,35,123
Yw [weighted age for female] = 91,27,975*2 + 99,58,059*7 + 1,14,51,227*12 + 1,65,18,666*17
+ 3,36,58,466*22 + 3,75,22,017*27 + 3,42,86,096 *32+ 3,30,54,887*37 + 2,72,61,236*42 +
2,34,47,716*47 + 1,78,42,986*52 + 1,51,92,910*57 + 1,43,47,372 *62+ 1,01,41,196*68 +
70,33,728*72 + 34,93,001*77 + 42,53,695*82 = 11,32,41,37,592
Average age for male migrate= Weighted age of male / total of male migrated

= 4,61,66,35,123 / 14,55,99,803 = 31.7 years

Average age for female migrate= Weighted age of female / total of female migrated

= 11,32,41,37,592 / 30,85,91,233 = 36.6 years

Interpretation:
As per the above calculation of average of male and female, it is observed that average age of male
migrant is less than age of female migrant. It means, more young age males are migrating and for
female more aged woman are migrating.

Impact on migration of male and female could be different, policies can be modifying according to
the data interpreted.